The Alabama senate race
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- Date published:
2:44 pm, December 13th, 2017 - 45 comments
Categories: Donald Trump, us politics -
Tags: republican party, roy moore
There is a fascinating electoral contest in the US of A today in Alabama where a rootin tootin child molesterin former District Attorney Roy Moore is seeking the seat as a Republican candidate. He is up against Doug Jones who is the Democrat nominee and has done such things as put KKK thugs in jail yet despite this has been accused of being weak on crime by the American President.
Moore had a photo opportunity stunt earlier today when he rode to the polling booth on horse. The video is cringeworthy.
The campaign should be a slam dunk for the Republican Party in a deeply Republican state but things are neck and neck. And if Jones wins then the Republican majority in the Senate goes down to a 2 seat buffer, one defection away from a tie.
The Republican cause will not be helped by a Donald Trump tweet this morning where in extraordinarily sexist and derogatory terms he referred to a Democrat Senator. If there is a female backlash against the Republican Party Trump can be blamed.
Lightweight Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, a total flunky for Chuck Schumer and someone who would come to my office “begging” for campaign contributions not so long ago (and would do anything for them), is now in the ring fighting against Trump. Very disloyal to Bill & Crooked-USED!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 12, 2017
You cannot silence me or the millions of women who have gotten off the sidelines to speak out about the unfitness and shame you have brought to the Oval Office. https://t.co/UbQZqubXZv
— Kirsten Gillibrand (@SenGillibrand) December 12, 2017
The New York Times has a live results page here. Currently predictions have Jones slightly ahead but it is early days.
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The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.
Apparently. (On a quick read) If it’s close, there will be no recount.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/12/alabama-court-gives-last-minute-order-that-could-impede-recount-procedure
“…it won’t be able to check the electronic ballot imagines…”
Images + machines = imagines. I love it, especially in this context. But autocorrect or deliberate I wonder? With the Grauniad it is anyone’s guess.
A judge made them keep the images for 6 months according to a NYT article this morning
A third of precincts in and the New York Times has Jones ahead. I would love to see the Orange one’s face right now.
That doesn’t seem to square with fivethirtyeight. As of 3:19 they’re showing Moore ahead, 51ish to 46ish. Plus their map shows results for the big cities (should lean Dem), but not rural (should lean Repug).
Prediction based on previous results. And the predicted margin has tightened again.
Looks like it will be a competition between how many republican write in votes there are and how good the voter suppression efforts were.
Edit: Sorry when I said “ahead” I should have specified “ahead in its predictive model”.
Interestingly the CNN and fivethirtyeight numbers seem to be coming from different places. With the same % of precincts reporting, they’re showing quite different totals. Right now 538 has Jones ahead by 0.4% with 78% reporting, while CNN has Moore ahead by 1.3% with the same 78% precincts.
Voter suppression,
https://twitter.com/drepurse/status/940711415425445888
CNN have Moore well ahead…
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/12/politics/alabama-election-latest/index.html
Forget it, Joe, it’s Alabamatown.
Seems appropo
Actually, looking at the returns count on the NYT site, it’s the larger, urban regions needing to complete their count, and most of them have a major lead for jones.
It seems the rural/urban divide isn’t just coasts vs the middle.
Moore’sJones’ lead is now in thehundredsthousands with1512% of precincts still to come in and most of them are Democrat areas.HeMoore is toast.Edited after a further 3% of precincts came in …
J%$#* F%^$ I hope so.
This is a really huge result for the Democrat Party win or lose.
AP calling it.
I’m looking forward to the reaction from the orange shitgibbon.
Will he completely ignore it and pretend it didn’t happen?
Will he claim he said all along Moore was a loser and the bambams should have gone with his pick Strange?
Will he claim fraud, it was rigged?
“Fake vote”, I’m picking, from the orange toddler
Nate Silver wonders whether there’s about to be a shitstorm of hateposting against Richard Shelby for saying write in someone instead of voting for Moore.
Will he completely ignore it and pretend it didn’t happen?
My reckons are initially he will but then those trigger happy twitter fingers will take over and hey presto… it was a fake election. The Dems have interfered with the results. I demand the FBI investigate and so on… ad infinitum.
Waaah waaaah waaaaaaaaah! Moore’s snowflakes crying fraud, it wuz Soros wut did it…
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/roy-more-voter-fraud_us_5a30ad1be4b01bdd7658579e?ncid=inblnkushpmg00000009
BLOTUS went with *he was right with his pick of Strange*. So he’s still the winner, even though he’s 0 for 2 with his picks.
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/13/politics/donald-trump-alabama-tweet-analysis/index.html
Nice result. Republican women probably stayed at home in droves, and Democratic ones voted in droves.
Also, this is bad for Trump. If his one weapon – electability in a gerrymandered and polarized electorate – is backfiring then he is a soon to be impeached goneburger.
Looking forward to watching Fox News tonight.
Uggh. Even this result isn’t enough to get me to do that!
Try ‘win’. Being projected by CNN and Faux. Faux projecting also a fierce uprising against Mitch McConnell. Herr Bannon and that infant will be fuming !
That poor, poor horse.
Roy Moore on CNN giving non-concession speech: saying it’s not over yet given prospect of automatic recount. Recount? Danger time. These are visceral crooks. Fortified by vaunted expressions of their love of God.
The automatic recount is if the final margin is below 0.5%. It looks like the margin is about 1.5%, so well above an automatic recount.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/364617-moore-refuses-to-concede-alabama-senate-race
They are going to contest it until the tax bill goes through.
With Alabama a good shot now to be kept by the Dems in the 2018 contest, the most likely path for Democrats to retake the Senate in 2018 now involves some combination of the following:
– Holding onto all or almost all of their seats in states Trump won
– Picking off Dean Heller in Nevada
– Winning Jeff Flake’s open seat in Arizona, or
– Bob Corker’s open seat in Tennessee, or
– Defeating Ted Cruz in Texas
Health problems for Republican senators could conceivably put another one or two more seats on the ballot in special elections.
Now, I feel great after this result, but the Dems still don’t have a shit-show so far of taking Congress. But taking a Senate majority would mean a much slower lurch to the hard right in the USA while Trump is still in power.
I read a tweet saying black women voted for for Jones 97-3. That is one eye popping stat.
Yeah it gives me no hope when it comes to multiculturalism in the future. Just hard line votes by affiliation.
Yep, it’s the black women who chose not to vote for the racist, sexist child molester who are the real problem in America
wow
I expect the majority of Marlboro smokers would have voted for Moore.
Maybe not. Marlboro Man he ain’t – seems he can’t ride a horse fer shit.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/12/roy-moore-horse-alabama-john-wayne
Seems the voters of Alabama have rejected the pervert, for what I assume and hope is a cleaner act, by electing Jones to the Senate.
A poke in the eye for Moore’s buddy and resident clown in the White House. Good.
I suspect the tantrums from Trump are underway right now!
This is the sort of result you can expect if you don’t have some decent Russian interference.
tRump backed two candidates, Strange in the primary, in the same election and they both lost.
Ass can’t ride for shit.
https://twitter.com/i/moments/940692651375919104
So, we seem to have discovered the limit for republican voters to be turned off – they will vote for a groper, but not if most of his victims are underage…
This election was won by African American women who voted for Doug Jones.
This election was won by African American women who campaigend for Doug Jones.
This election was won by African American women who voted to save themselves as they are always the first ones to be hit by the doings of the Republicans and their cuts to public services.
This election was lost by the economically disadvantages white men and women who voted for a creep, a sexual molester, someone who want to cancel any amendment after he 10th, who think that if women could not vote there would be less problems and that Slavery was a time of good family politics for black families.
But yeah, lets not do identity politics and continue to pander to the votes of the economically anxious white male voter and his missus especially the righteous conservative Christians.
https://qz.com/1155156/alabama-senate-race-result-and-poll-majority-of-white-women-backed-defeated-republican-candidate-roy-moore/
Black women might have just saved white US America. Ponder about that. And in NZ it probably is very much the same with the Labour Party / Green Party.
It would be nice to get a break down who voted for National, Labour, Greens, NZF, TOP by gender and ethnic make up. I think it would make for interesting reading.
Yep, hopefully oppressed people across the US will take away a big message from this. They have power and they can force changes. That it’s worth the effort to overcome the voter suppression obstacles and actually vote.
Along with the 97 – 3 vote for Jones over Moore among black women, the 90 – 10 split among black men, that the electorate is 25% black by population but the actual vote was 30% black should give people inspiration that yes, their vote actually does make a difference.
Well that’s the thing. Everyone talks about Trump and Bannon’s mobilised base of angry whites. But it looks like the outraged mobilised base of those who reject Trump are going to be more powerful in the medium term.
Hopefully it’s more than just outrage at the barbecued bloviator. Coz that would die down as soon as the Repugs put up a slightly plausible facsimile of an actual human. Hopefully it spurs people to realise that yes, voting does make a difference so it’s worth making the effort. That might last a bit longer then just the next electoral cycle.
The ‘oppressed’ people voted overwhelmingly for the She Devil Hillary Clinton.
The ruling white economically anxious people voted overwhelmingly for the ‘self funded, white saviour Donald Trump – he who is beholden to non or something like that “.
It is the Democrats who need to realise who puts in the foot work, who puts in the phone banking, the door knocking and the grassroots efforts.
Guess what, it ain’t the white man / women.
results breakdown recent election in Virginia
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/local/virginia-politics/governor-exit-polls/
http://college.usatoday.com/2016/11/09/how-we-voted-by-age-education-race-and-sexual-orientation/
and i would venture a guess that here in NZ, white people are the ones that vote National rather then Labour/Green. – just guessing 🙂
so let me put it this way, the ‘oppressed people’ know who does the oppressing. It is the savior party that has an issue realizing who is their voter.