The art of political prediction

21 comments on “The art of political prediction ”

• Comments are now closed

1. Nick C 1

   2 March 2011 at 9:51 am

   “Even with Peter Dunne and Act, will need 47 per cent of the party vote to win a majority. Last election they got 45.”

   Well actually it was 49.5%, so there goes Matt’s theory..
   • Graeme Edgeler 1.1

     2 March 2011 at 10:35 am

     Nope. It was 44.93%.

     ref: http://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2008/partystatus.html
     • Nick C 1.1.1

       2 March 2011 at 10:42 am

       It seems to me he was refering to the combined vote of United Future, Act and National.
       • Jono 1.1.1.1

         2 March 2011 at 11:24 am

         “the National Party, even with Peter Dunne and Act, will need 47 per cent of the party vote to win a majority”

         Stop trying to be so obtuse.
       • Bright Red 1.1.1.2

         2 March 2011 at 5:57 pm

         given how few seats ACT and UF will bring in (3 max), the Nats will have to supply more than they did last time or rely on another partner to get a majority.

         right now, Nat+Act+UF = majority, unless National gets over 47% next time you’ll need Nat+Act+UF+MP to get a majority – pretty unstable, methinks.
2. Craig Glen Eden 2

   2 March 2011 at 10:08 am

   Yes two sides to every coin both could be right but come election day one will be wrong at best.
   It seems hard to believe that National will get over 50%, while some maybe still smitten with Key people I talk with don’t like what National has done in many areas like for example the increase in GST, the Tax switch for the rich and National Standards in education all policy flops.

   Also Key and National now have history which is not looking so good.The next election will certainly be interesting thats foreshore. I suspect the Maori Party wont get the support they got last time which could leave National with no friends!
3. higherstandard 3

   2 March 2011 at 10:10 am

   While these guys are just doing their job for the papers with opinion pieces, I’m like you and have about as much time for it as I do for Ken Ring.
4. Lanthanide 4

   2 March 2011 at 10:14 am

   I read an exact opposite opinion on Harawira in The Listener (issue before he was expelled), saying that a New Left party will fracture the Left vote, pull voters away from Labour and Greens, and by carving off slivers of support that are wasted due to rounding, would result in National definitely winning (although they said in a coalition).
5. gobsmacked 5

   2 March 2011 at 10:51 am

   I am a self-promoting pseudo-pundit with excellent sources, provided by the voices in my head. Other commentators bow down before me. I am the one who knows.

   Based on my unmatched expertise, I can confidently predict that Simon Power will be the next Prime Minister. To anybody who really understands politics, that much is obvious.

   Eh? What’s that?

   Bugger.

   (facts, schmacts – don’t worry, you still get paid. More please – Ed).
   • Rex Widerstrom 5.1

     2 March 2011 at 1:38 pm

     Heh +1.

     Applies perfectly to most.

     There’s some expceptions though. With Kerre Woodham, for instance, I expect the voices are more elevator muzak. Micael Lhaws… I think it’s the sounds of dogs barking. Deborah Coddington, it’s bats… definitely bats.
     • prism 5.1.1

       2 March 2011 at 2:08 pm

       Rex W 😀
6. patriot_nz 6

   2 March 2011 at 11:31 am

   November is too far away to be able to accurately predict anything- for example which pundits foresaw the latest Christchurch earthquake and the effects that might have on the political landscape?

   But the New Zealand voting population are quite stupid enough/ nasty enough to vote in a majority National government so I wouldn’t rule it out. My hopes ride on Winston taking enough votes from the right to get across the 5% barrier and then stopping National selling and dismantling what remains of a once reasonably civilised country.

   Any left coalition involving the current Labour leadership would be lucky to last a term. People are so sick of people like Goff, King, Mallard et al. Those deadwood politicians in combination with a racist like Harawira would be a government hated by most. The best thing for Labour at the next election would be political annihilation and maybe a rebuild after that, but I am not holding my breath as it is a flaw of MMP that politicians who have had their day cannot be voted out by the public because of the party list.
   • Colonial Viper 6.1

     2 March 2011 at 11:33 am

     but I am not holding my breath as it is a flaw of MMP that politicians who have had their day cannot be voted out by the public because of the party list.

     That’s why you get masses of people to mobilise back into political parties. You don’t wait for a 3 yearly vote to make change at the top.
   • Craig Glen Eden 6.2

     2 March 2011 at 11:52 am

     “People are sick of Goff, King, Mallard et al” Really Patriot?People or Green Party members and who
     would the et al be, I cant wait to hear who they would be. Maybe National ministers like English, Smith, Ryall, Hone Carter or one of a new arrival like Power!

     Personally I have not even heard anyone talk about the likes of King, what about those nasty people in the Greens people sick of those dead beats to?
7. deemac 7

   2 March 2011 at 12:24 pm

   Hone “will run parallel campaigns against low wages, so-called welfare reform, mining, GST and privatisation.” Will he? My guess is he’ll do a bit of shouting but totally fail to build anything real. And yes I’d put money on it. (The best indicator of future behaviour is past behaviour).
8. Jenny 8

   2 March 2011 at 8:32 pm

   “Here are two fine examples of the art of political prediction which reach completely opposite conclusions. Take your pick…”

   R0B

   R0B, To turn our favoured pick into a reality takes work.

   After all, God helps those who help themselves.

   Now that a peace deal has been brokered between the Maori Party and Hone Harawira

   The only thing keeping us all from ousting the Nat’s and getting a Labour led coalition is the political will to work together.

   Though, sectarian infighting has been the left’s Achilles heel, here at least is one example of the Greens, Labour and the Maori Party all harmoniously working together to oppose the National Party. (Admittedly this example of working together, was at the level of the grass roots activists. Though this action informs me, that if this example was adopted as a strategy by the leadership’s of these parties, it would be welcomed by these same grass roots activists and probably by the wider electorate as well.)

   Maybe just for a start, Labour, Greens and the Maori Party could agree on a project to work together toward some new, non-controversial, commonly agreed extra-parliamentary project of benefit to all three.

   Such a project could be a trial run for these parties successfully working together in a parliamentary coalition.

   Such a project could also help build trust between these potential coalition partners.

   I wonder what such a project could be?

   Here is my suggestion:

   As is well known, there is a large constituency that are removed from the political process, Maori and Polynesian are over represented in the figures.

   What if, The Maori Party the Labour Party the Greens and Hone Harawira put aside their other differences to agree to work together to empower this constituency, agreeing to work together around a massive and aggressive enrolment campaign especially aimed at reversing this statistic?

   How about a massive combined cross party enrolment campaign targeting this constituency, endorsed by Lab, Green, Maori Party (Possibly even NZF).

   As well as setting up the ground work for the possible working of these parties after the elections. A combined cross-party enrolment campaign by these parties could easily deliver the needed number of overhang seats that would make Matt McCarten’s scenario a certainty.

   If just the Maori Party and Hone’s Tai Tokerau and wider support group (only), were able to put aside their differences to work around this common project. They could well achieve, even on their own, the necessary numbers to tip the parliamentary majority away from National and ACT though their own efforts. This would increase the strength of their lobby when dealing with the bigger parties. (of course, if the Greens and Labour, also gave practical material support to this campaign, ie activists, funds, official public endorsement, publicity etc. then the Maori Party and Hone would be in return honour bound to give their support to a coalition of these parties).
9. Salsy 9

   2 March 2011 at 10:03 pm

   Its my view that the earthquake is the end of National. Key, i suspect knows this also, and despite his latest effort to generate a collective hatred momentarily away from our nations poorest to the rich (claiming WFF), he knows full well that a disaster of this magnitude has pushed him way too far outside the script. Key lacks the true compassion, an honest plan and the profound leadership needed to pull people back to CHCH. I suspect we will see a terrible diaspora, and the broken city fill with crime and dissolussionment long before election day.
   • Jenny 9.1

     2 March 2011 at 10:34 pm

     Salsy said:

     ” I suspect we will see a terrible diaspora, and the broken city fill with crime and dissolussionment long before election day.”

     Sad but true Salsy, but it will be spun by the Nats and their lickspittle media that is all their own fault, they were degenerates to begin with, we must crack down on them.

     This has the benefit of painting the Right as the moral avengers and saviours of society.

     Lawn order will be the catch-cry of the right and National will romp home.

     Incarceration without bail for extended periods for previously minor criminal offending is already a reality a reality in Christchurch. Including incarceration without bail for a crime that didn’t even exist last week. ie. entering the cordon without permission.
10. rainman 10

    2 March 2011 at 11:04 pm

    Don’t see Key romping to victory that easily – most of my friends who went all Key-mad seem to have regained their senses and now aren’t so enthusiastic. Talk around the bbq is how he’s been a big disappointment – and I’m not referring to the die-hard Actoids who live on Planet Crazy and want him to complete the neolib destruction of NZ. Goff is seen as a decent, if somewhat insipid alternative… y’know, sorta maybe a bit centre-right if you look at him in the right light.
11. aotearoean 11

    4 March 2011 at 4:18 am

    Hone Harawira will be an effective when his mother stops clutching hold of John Keys arm.

Links to post

1. The Standard: posted on 1 March 2011 at 8:16 pm

• Comments are now closed

• Log in
• Donate
• Contribute post

• Articles RSS