The poll that matters will be completed on Saturday

Written By: - Date published: 8:16 am, September 21st, 2017 - 107 comments
Categories: election 2017, electoral commission, polls - Tags: ,

Matthew Whitehead has been doing a series of tweets showing possible outcomes based on various polls. Below are the ones for the Colmar Brunton poll from yesterday. I’m posting these because I want lefties to see that there is still quite a range of possible outcomes here, and hopefully as a reminder that any individual poll is unlikely to be accurate.

Take home message is get out and vote, and to get out the vote. Most people are still going to vote on Saturday, so there is time to encourage that and to talk about the importance of party voting Greens or Labour. It’s the party vote that determines who gets to form government.

Key point is that only Labour and the Greens have committed to changing the government. I’m sure those two parties could do with a hand, links at the bottom of the page.

If you are on the Māori Roll, then there’s some tactical voting to be had there on both the party and electorate votes. If you are on the General Roll and vote in Epsom or Nelson then your electorate vote is also important.

If you are not on the electoral roll, you can still vote but you have to do that before Saturday (you can enrol and vote at the same time up until the end of Friday).  More details here.

The Standard commenter Patricia summed it up,

Keep the faith. Keep talking to those who are yet to vote. Say how vital every left vote is towards changing the government.

Liking people and policies isn’t enough. Commitment to voting is the main thing.

Pushing through negative vibes and fear to make a choice.

We need to vote for a “Better New Zealand”

Let’s do this!!!!

Donate to the Greens.
Volunteer for the Greens.
Join the Greens.

Donate to Labour.
Volunteer for Labour.
Join Labour.

107 comments on “The poll that matters will be completed on Saturday ”

  1. Rightly or wrongly 1

    I agree with you Weka – Saturday’s poll is what counts.

    Aparently there is another poll out tonight from Reid research so it will be interesting to see what it sees.

    I suspect that on Sunday morning there will be a large percentage of gloomy despondent people in NZ – just don’t know yet whether they will be left or right votrs.

    • weka 1.1

      Heh, I think that last statement is the only sure thing we can say about this election.

    • Well, now it’s more like the poll that counts is every day’s one between September 11th and September 23rd, (ie. every day of advance voting is like its own mini-election with different facts and context available to voters who opted to head in to the polls then) but I agree that polls are just indicators of probability for the votes that really count, even if they are statistically rigorous. It helps prepare us for the election result to know those guesses in context, with their limitations.

  2. Union city greens 2

    A big vote from South Auckland and the left will take it on Saturday night.
    The challenge is to get bums off seats and in to the booths.
    If a neck and neck race to dump the government isn’t enough motivation I don’t know what is.

    • millsy 2.1

      Yes, it was Auckland that won the 2005 election for Labour. Whether it can happen again is an open question.

      • Union city greens 2.1.1

        It could happen. It’s certainly more likely to happen now than the past two elections.
        All depends if labour can motivate those they consider their core constituents.
        If they can’t do that in such a tight race, well, we’re all doomed.

  3. Cynical jester 3

    The poll tonight will be a national slanted one . We all need to Get off the computers and start door knocking NOW. Get your mates your family everyone to vote and vote red/red or green/red. There’s too much at stake. Lets do this

    • james 3.1

      Why will it be National slanted ??? – even the CB poll is in line with it – and according to One news last night that result was in line with the internal polling of both main parties ….

      • weka 3.1.1

        Some polls favour the left more than the right and vice versa. I don’t know which polls go which way though.

      • weka 3.1.2

        “and according to One news last night that result was in line with the internal polling of both main parties ….”

        What does that even mean? Internal poll of polls? Overall numbers or the actual % for each party?

        Did they cover the refused to answer and the undecideds? What about the non vote?

        We’re really not very good at this stuff in NZ.

    • RR has been friendlier to the nats than CB was in these last couple of polls, and it’s only recently that CB’s numbers have moved more to the centre. I was initially wondering if this was because it had gone rogue twice in a row, (a very unlikely event normally, but given they are trying new methodology this year, a more reasonable assumption than normal too) but I’m thinking perhaps it may have simply been that Reid Research picked up a late surge back towards National earlier than Colmar Brunton did because their internet panel is more agile in responding to voter mood. We’ll have to wait to election day to see who had the right of it.

  4. Howdy 4

    Still not sure who all these PR articles talking to?

    Does anyone actually think that there are people taking the time to read this site who are not going to vote, have not already decided to vote Left/Right and wont be swayed?

    I mean, seriously?

    Shouting into the chamber….

    • weka 4.1

      You miss the point. The people that read this post have actual lives with real people in them. It’s what we do with what we read here that counts. Maybe you’d like to join in.

      And even hardcore politicos need encouragement at times. It’s called solidarity.

      • Howdy 4.1.1

        I am not missing the point – I think my point is PRECISELY that this is about “real” people.
        Newsflash: The real people you need to get to are NOT READING THIS SITE.

        I think, and I am happy to be wrong, but this smells like “web-activism”/”echo chamber” mentality.

        I agree, knocking on doors and actually doing something for real people is what is needed.

        Then why are there a dozen articles telling people on a left political site how to vote left?

        If you are here reading this, you are NOT THE PROBLEM!?

        They might as well tell everyone how to wipe their arse…

        Harsh I know, but effort should be spent wisely.

        • weka 4.1.1.1

          Ok, I think you didn’t read my comment properly. I read this site, and then I go and talk to people in my life who don’t read this site. How are those people I talk to not real people?

          And when I write a post and people who are reading it go, yeah, we need to get out there in the next few days and get people out to vote, and then they do do that, even if it’s just taking to a friend in the supermarket or to their neighbour across the fence, how is that an echo chamber when you’ve just acknowledged that door knocking or work in the real world is useful and is what’s needed?

          “Then why are there a dozen articles telling people on a left political site how to vote left?”

          Lol, because there’s a tussle going on between Labour and Green supporters over the left vote. I think you will find most of those posts are trying to convince people to vote Green instead of Labour or vice versa.

          But sure, some of them are still targeted at the general readership and pointing out the massive problem that is Labour. Not everyone who reads here is left wing. Some are RW, some are swing voters, some are non-voters, some are off the L/R spectrum altogether.

  5. Lara 5

    I’ve already voted. As a Green Party member I was always going to vote Green. For a myriad of reasons.

    I’ve been thinking through the logic of this, and trying to prepare myself for Saturday. Last election I was so emotionally invested, when National won again I was gutted and stayed in bed for three days! (I work from home, so I can do that and still work).

    So to avoid time wasted I’m trying to prepare myself this time for another win by the Nats.

    Their base of support is older voters, farmers and the richer folks in NZ. Lots of overlap between these three groups. Older people have a higher voter turn out rate, as do the more wealthy.

    As for Labour, their traditional base of support is working class people and the poor. But poorer people have a lower voter turnout. The left in general has more support from younger than older people, and again the younger the cohort the lower the voter turnout.

    And so if National win and the left as a bloc lose, I think it will have a lot to do with large numbers of people not voting.

    Yet it is the young and the poor who are most adversely impacted by a National government.

    When I first voted it was under the old FPP system. I recall voting in an electorate which was a strong National seat, so I had my protest vote for McGullicuddy Serious. The whole thing felt like sham, I knew my one vote could have zero effect. And we did have election results where more people in the country voted Labour, yet National had more MPs and formed a government. That to me appears to be fundamentally undemocratic. So I can understand people feeling disenfranchised and disconnected from politics under such a system.

    But now we have MMP. My one vote counts just as much as the richest, and poorest, person in NZ. My one vote counts just as much as FJK. I have power. It’s only the power of one, but I am equal in our electorate system. And that feels democratic, that’s real.

    We have such a wide range of political parties to choose from. And from within National, Labour, Greens, NZ First, Maori, Mana and ACT (all parties who will be or are likely to have representation next week) there is plenty of variety to choose from. All their policies are available via websites. We have all the information at our fingertips to make informed decisions. Although no party is going to meet the desires perfectly if each voter, you’ll be able to find a party there that meets the majority of your desires.

    And so I am really struggling to see why those most adversely affected by the last 9 years of National aren’t getting out to vote them out.

    Do these people not make the connection that who is in power in Wellington directly affects their lives? That collectively they have the power to change their lives if they vote?

    I guess maybe that’s the problem. How to overcome it? Conversation. Dialogue. Without judgement and without badgering.

    I’ll be doing that over the next few days for sure.

    Sorry about the long post Weka, but I’m getting really worried about Saturday.

    • Lara 5.1

      If I was voting in my own self interest I should have voted National. I’d get a very nice tax cut thank-you-very-much.

      • But your values are your self-interest too. 🙂 You get to live in a clean country, that cares about other people if the Greens get influence in the next government.

        Voting based on factors other than your wallet doesn’t mean there isn’t some self-interest to it, just a more enlightened, holistic type of self-interest that realizes the value of other people and the land and intangible qualities like “positive political environments.”

    • And so I am really struggling to see why those most adversely affected by the last 9 years of National aren’t getting out to vote them out.

      Do these people not make the connection that who is in power in Wellington directly affects their lives? That collectively they have the power to change their lives if they vote?

      ……………………………………………..

      The real problem is lack of civics teaching. And neo liberal govts on the whole esp right wing ones do not want that to happen in schools. The answer is obvious : it would immediately politicize young voters and more importantly , – show that there is in fact , an alternative to TINA.

      And that it would also teach about Keynesian economics, – and things such as true social democratic values. The very thing the last 3 decades of neo liberal govts have tried to denigrate , discredit and encourage revisionism about.

      Couple this with the fact most young people are more interested in Saturday nights entertainment ( remember when we were in our early twenty’s ! ) . These govt annalists know this. They do not fear the ‘ youth vote’ . The same with the ‘working’ vote . These capitalist know that many of the working class are not particularly educated – or even interested in politics. They know many of them do not have aspirations to run a large corporate but just have a job.

      And so they also know they have a fair amount of wriggle room to bully workers.

      And sad to say , that it will take a very large catalyst to change that.

      In the 1960’s ,… the young had the Vietnam war,- the peace movement. The generation before that had the post war rebuild. And now ?… we have had …. a slow grinding down of social conditions,… much like the frog in the pot of water.

      And that’s what these neo liberals bank on.

      It would take another Great Depression for there to be a mass sea change, … and the last thing these neo liberals want is civics in schools.

      • Lara 5.2.1

        “The real problem is lack of civics teaching”

        But that’s just not true Weka.

        I used to teach high school; senior biology and geography, and social studies to years 9 and 10.

        I know our electoral system and government systems are taught, because I taught them. The different branches of government, our MMP voting system, how bills are passed through parliament, the select committee process. All of it. And I explained carefully WHY it is important. The concept of democracy.

        In social studies which every Kiwi kid gets in years 9 and 10 it’s taught every election year, done to death in fact. And often in years between too.

        It’s also done at primary school, but I can’t say so much about that because I was a secondary school teacher.

        Plenty of resources ready to go here for all levels. Some of which I used.

        And so, I hear that refrain a lot. And when I do, to me, it’s kinda like someone saying “the sky isn’t blue” when I know it is. We do teach it. A lot. And I taught in several schools in the North Island. Maybe it wasn’t taught when you went to school, but it is being taught today.

        • Lara 5.2.1.1

          Have you read Neil Postman’s “Amusing Ourselves to Death”?

          It’s a great little read about how technology changes public discourse. From pen and paper and snail mail, to the telegraph, to radio, to television. It stops there because it was written in 1985.

          IMO the internet (how we use it anyway) is changing our public discourse further. Twitter is the best (worst?) example. You can’t convey complicated concepts well in 140 characters or less.

          Our attention spans are getting smaller and smaller. Our engagement less and less. We are diverted constantly by irrelevant trivia, and the big important stuff is buried in a pile of shit.

          I wonder if the effect of technology on our public discourse is a big reason for younger voters not engaging.

          • WILD KATIPO 5.2.1.1.1

            Well , it certainly is something…

            Think back to WW2 when people huddled round the radio for news of how the war was going and the latest political statement…. or ,… during the 1960’s / 70’s where there was more or less one TV station.

            There was certainly less variance of views , – and an emphasis on reading , – the reading of newspapers for example.

            Now we have divers sources of news, entertainment and the like.

            It would seem to me ,… less group accord is a large factor.

            Basically a splintering of society into a thousand small pieces all going off in different directions. And what of our University’s?… is it not , … that the claim has been made many times over,… that those economists who opposed neo liberal theorem were gradually overlooked, bypassed in favour of those who were?

        • weka 5.2.1.2

          not weka 😉

        • WILD KATIPO 5.2.1.3

          Oopsey ,- Wild Katipo 🙂

        • tracey 5.2.1.4

          Easier to think people are uneducated than deal with their disengagement. The more people vote for proven liars the more real.people turn away from the system

    • james 5.3

      “My one vote counts just as much as the richest, and poorest, person in NZ. My one vote counts just as much as FJK. I have power. It’s only the power of one, but I am equal in our electorate system. And that feels democratic, that’s real.

      We have such a wide range of political parties to choose from. And from within National, Labour, Greens, NZ First, Maori, Mana and ACT (all parties who will be or are likely to have representation next week) there is plenty of variety to choose from. All their policies are available via websites. We have all the information at our fingertips to make informed decisions. Although no party is going to meet the desires perfectly if each voter, you’ll be able to find a party there that meets the majority of your desires.”

      Apart from the FJK – this was a really important point – and exactly why I have told my kids its so important to vote.

      • Mana are very unlikely to be in parliament next week, I wouldn’t bank on it. Even if the TTT electorate poll is completely rubbish, it’s hard for it to be so rubbish that Hone would close a 30% gap even if it were a rogue poll that underpolled him and he was trending upwards as fast as Jacinda sent Labour’s party vote.

        Polling shows critical electorates are as follows:

        Ohariu (results defunct due to Dunne’s resignation, it’s anyone’s guess)
        Waiariki – Te Ururoa Flavell leading.
        Te Tai Hauāuru – Howie Tamati leading.
        Te Tai Tokerau – As above, Kelvin Davis leading.
        Epsom – David Seymour leading in three-way race.
        Nelson – Nick Smith narrowly leading in three-way race.
        Northland – unfortunately not polled, but at a guess I would likely expect it to stay with Peters.
        Ilam – unfortunately not polled, however I expect Raf Manji to at least give Gerry Brownlee a decent fight.

        Ilam’s result would be super weird because as an independent, Raf Manji would remove the 120th list seat from Parliament rather than add an overhang seat, presumably because someone unnecessarily worried about tons of independents adding seats to Parliament when we transitioned to MMP. This means that the largest party is likely to be the one losing out on a seat to let Manji into Parliament, which is likely to be the Nats. He’s a right-of-centre independent last I heard, but he has very little public info available, so it’ll be a Big Deal™ if he wins.

        • weka 5.3.1.1

          Huh, that might explain the green meme endorsement, although that would be very cynical.

          • Matthew Whitehead 5.3.1.1.1

            It’s super difficult to predict whose seat will be removed, though. For instance, the Greens might be the ones to lose the 120th seat because they gain an extra one on the special vote, or Labour might lose out, or even New Zealand First if they just narrowly qualify for a seventh seat. You need to know the relative party votes of every party in order to know for sure who wins and loses by an independent winning an electorate, because you need to specifically know which party gets seat #120. It’s a bizarre way to calculate seats and we should probably just give independents an overhang seat instead, it’s far less disruptive to proportionality.

            I suspect the real reason is that people in Ilam who don’t vote for the Nats are sick of Gerry Brownlee, and wish they could unseat him. I expect a lot of tactical voting from Labour and Green supporters for Manji.

    • BM 5.4

      Their base of support is older voters, farmers and the richer folks in NZ. Lots of overlap between these three groups. Older people have a higher voter turn out rate, as do the more wealthy.

      Don’t forget all the tradies, that now vote National

      • cleangreen 5.4.1

        BM : “Don’t forget all the ‘tradies’ that now vote National”

        Our circle are all ‘tradies’ and all have signalled their circle of ‘tradies’ certainly will not be voting national BM as they are to restricted by new stupid rules for one and because of the distain at seeing National importing cheap imported trade labour to drive down trade labour costs artificially.

        These imported ‘slave labour tradies’ will likely be the only ones voting National for sure not kiwi based tradies.

        This debunking of BM’s ‘bullshit’ comes from a ‘tradie’ family

        • BM 5.4.1.1

          I didn’t say all tradies but there’ now quite a large chunk that do now, eg building trades.

          30 years ago you would be lucky to find anyone from the trades that voted National.

      • weka 5.4.2

        “Don’t forget all the tradies, that now vote National”

        It’s one of the failings of the left to really get to grips with what has changed around class in the last 30 years. Too much time arguing about Waitakere Man and bashing Labour, not enough time looking more in depth at what is going on.

        • BM 5.4.2.1

          The root cause was when all the government depts like the post office and railways got broken up and sold off.

          As a very young man back then working for the post office, we had mechanics, fitter turners, welders, carpenters, cabinet makers, bodybuilders, panel beaters, car painters and even an upholsterer!
          Everything was done in-house, it was a completely separate world working for the government back then.

          Many of those trade guys who got laid off, took their redundancy pay and went into business for themselves the national voting tradie was born.

          • weka 5.4.2.1.1

            Yes, and the sell offs/redundancies being done by Labour and from which Labour has yet to properly resile means there is bugger all for them to vote for.

            • tracey 5.4.2.1.1.1

              Yup. And the de unionising of labour which corresponds with real wages grinding to a halt while accomodation costs have soared

          • cleangreen 5.4.2.1.2

            ‘Many of those trade guys who got laid off, took their redundancy pay and went into business for themselves the national voting tradie was born.’

            No No No,

            National voting traidie was born!!!!!!!

            Wher’s the proof, as our ‘regional’ group of ‘new’ tradies are not overtly national voting as you depict sorry not true.

      • ianmac 5.4.3

        Thats useful BM.
        And don’t forget all the tradies who vote Labour.

    • James Thrace 5.5

      Lara, you left out the biggest bloc of the 500,000 imported voters under National over the last nine years.

      If anecdata is anything to go by, imported voters typically tend to follow the government in power at the time they entered the country.

      Witness the Tampa refugees. They vote labour because, Labour let them into the country.

      Now: We have oodles upon oodles of foreign permanent residents who have taken up cudgels in the war against the poor, by backing the government that let them in. Hence, the rise of the so called “Blue Dragons”

      Never mind the fact that Labour recognises ethnic diversity far more than National.

      IMHO, it’s a good reason to follow the Australians, and limit voting rights for central government to Citizens only. Local government can be open to both permanent residents and citizens, as the impact is less likely to be felt.

      From a social policy setting and perspective, Citizens may be more inclined to think long term, than a permanent resident who might leave in the next year or two, and will “reward” the government that let them live here in the short term.

      I might do a dissertation on this… “the impact of the distinction between permanent residents and citizens on voting patterns”

      • WILD KATIPO 5.5.1

        … ” IMHO, it’s a good reason to follow the Australians, and limit voting rights for central government to Citizens only ” …

        Exactly.

        … ” Now: We have oodles upon oodles of foreign permanent residents who have taken up cudgels in the war against the poor, by backing the government that let them in. Hence, the rise of the so called “Blue Dragons” …

        And this why I’ve always felt that way as well. To me its insulting that people from other country’s can come here and , – not really understanding our particular social needs , and who barely have a grasp of our political history ,- can artificially distort what the citizen base deem important. I also believe it was a deliberate and cynical tactical move by National. This didn’t just happen by accident. It was done to provide cheap foreign labour and create downwards pressure on wages. And to provide a massive injection in voters for National.

        And its time that cozy little arrangement was stopped.

      • tracey 5.5.2

        Half a million immigrants have become eligible to vote in the last 9 years? Can you provide a link?

        • Lara 5.5.2.1

          I think it may be more like half that. If this data is correct then we have a net gain of 214,200 over the last 9 years. Mostly from India and China.

          I like data. And I like accuracy. So I’ll provide the link.

          • James Thrace 5.5.2.1.1

            Resident Decisions by Financial Year has a zip file.

            A quick gander through that shows that since 2007/2008 a grand total of 160,699 permanent resident visas have been granted to people over the age of 20. I took out all the approved visas to people in the age range 0 -19.

            That is a quick browse. Still rather substantial. The remainder of the 500K who have moved here may take up residency at some point, who knows.

    • tracey 5.6

      I understand the angst. Since 1987 there has been a concerted move to individualism at the expensive of the group. This has impacted in many ways. Look at Union membership. It is no coincidence that union membership has fallen and real wages are pathetic.

      So even the so called working class have shifted to so called self interest. However it is not true self interest. EG unless you can afford private health insurance as you get older the deteriorating health system directly impacts you.

      Now we have lies actually being outted and over 40% of voters stay with it. But the outrage at Turei, and the relentless media pursuit of her forced a leader to resign.

      The PM on the other hand stays. Collins and Bennett stay. Why? Because of an in part mistaken belief that people will individually be better off.

      It is not a conspiracy it is the culmination of over 30 years of dripping vitriol at the vulnerable so we no longer give a shit ( or over 40% of us).

  6. RRM 6

    There’s a huge Maori Party billboard over Waterloo Quay this morning:

    “Labour betrayed Maori.
    Foreshore and Seabed Act.
    Party vote Maori Party.”

    Just fyi…

    • millsy 6.1

      A vote for the Maori Party is a vote for National.

      And the F and S Act was needed to ensure that our beaches will remain in public hands usable by everyone.

      • james 6.1.1

        “And the F and S Act was needed to ensure that our beaches will remain in public hands usable by everyone.”

        And Labours deputy leader joined labour to make sure things like the F ans S Act didnt happen again.

        https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/95326687/labours-kelvin-davis-is-ready-for-the-spotlight

        “Davis entered politics after strongly disagreeing with Labour’s move to nationalise the foreshore and seabed.

        “To make sure things like the foreshore and seabed don’t happen you have to be inside,” he said.”

      • While they haven’t categorically ruled out National, I take Marama Fox on her word (at least until she demonstrates that it’s not trustworthy) that they will consult their members formally before deciding on coalition posture, and informally their members are saying they prefer Labour.

        It’s also worth pointing out that every time the Māori Party has worked with National before, National would have been the government without their support anyway, so their support arrangements have more been about bringing respect for Māori values and culture into a government that might otherwise have been hostile than about actively liking National’s policies. While I wouldn’t have picked that tactic myself, as a Pākehā my opinion there doesn’t mean anything, and we do have to acknowledge that, possibly with some credit due to the Māori Party, the National Party has transitioned from Don Brash’s orewa speech to one that embraces Whanau Ora, is actively completing treaty settlements in good faith even if it’s not exactly how Labour would have done them all, is no longer trying to abolish Māori electorates, and is generally no longer completely hostile to Māori interests.

        While I think if you want to protect Māori cultural values and still support a Labour-led government, the Greens are your safest bet, it’s exaggerating to say that the Māori Party will support National ahead of Labour when given the chance, as they never have been before, and they are openly saying they believe their members will give them a mandate to choose Labour if they have the numbers to do so. If I were convinced that the Greens were going to poll under the threshold, the Māori Party would have a fair chance at taking my party vote.

        • tracey 6.1.2.1

          Isnt she the LGBTI spokesperson who just publically called Labour out for voting for marriage equality?

        • Karen 6.1.2.2

          “National would have been the government without their support anyway”

          But they still voted for the selling of state houses – they didn’t need to do that.

          There are several other examples that show they are much more aligned with National now than ever before, and during this campaign they have been spreading lies about Labour with just as much enthusiasm as Stephen Joyce.

          They do consult party members but it is done in a hui – many will not be able to attend and the party line is pushed heavily.

          Marama Fox is a media darling and seems to have persuaded many on the left wing that she is also left-wing at heart, but IMO she is not at trustworthy. Although I am Pākehā, I follow Māori politics closely, and follow a number of Māori working at grass roots level.

          • weka 6.1.2.2.1

            Do you think the Mp would vote conservatively against a Labour-led govt?

          • Matthew Whitehead 6.1.2.2.2

            Yes, this is the danger of their “support National when we don’t have to” strategy. They get persuaded into voting for things they probably shouldn’t in order to compromise and get concessions out of a government that doesn’t agree with them ideologically, and it’s why I don’t agree with the move tactically even though it has mellowed National on many issues relating to Māori.

            If you don’t trust her, that’s fine. I don’t rely on her to be consistently left-wing or liberal, but to do what she genuinely thinks is best for her people whether it’s ideologically correct or not. As a Green, by and large that agrees with my values anyway, but YMMV. I wouldn’t have called her a media darling, just that she’s frank and opinionated but is also generally an effective communicator in that style, so the media like her because they don’t feel like they’re getting lied to, regardless of whether you believe that’s true or not.

            I’m sure there are disadvantages to the hui format but it is a traditional format for Māori, so you get what you join. I hope they will consult members that can’t attend that way as well, and I do think it’s reasonable to take them at their word that they’ll favour Labour at least this time around, given they’ve never had a chance to choose before.

    • Rosemary McDonald 6.2

      The Maori Party betrayed disabled Kiwis and their chosen family carers.

      Voted with National for one of the worst pieces of legislation in New Zealand political history.

      Voted with National to remove rights that had been confirmed through the Human Rights Review Tribunal and all the way to the Court of Appeal.

      AND voted with National to remove the right to take the issue back to the Tribunal or the Courts.

      Then…THEN…denied that they voted for that legislation. Pleaded ignorance.

      I know this. I asked Turia …kanohi ki kanohi…and she denied all knowledge of that legislation and her part in getting it over the line.

      Stupid or corrupt?

      • weka 6.2.1

        What was the legislation?

          • weka 6.2.1.1.1

            So the legislation the Mp voted on was the Public Health and Disability Amendment Bill?

            • Rosemary McDonald 6.2.1.1.1.1

              Do the links not work weka?

              All will become clear to those with such short memories if you just read the linked to articles.

              FFS…they needed the Maori Party votes to drag that pile of shit over the line.

              Greens, NZF and Labour all kicked up shit on the day.

              The Maori Party…had they any of the conscience that sparked the formation of the party left (remember…the Foreshore and Seabed legislation was going to remove the right to take claims on the issue to court..THAT’S the bit that got Tariana and Co all riled up…not being able to have their claims heard in court)

              I guess if serious disability has not had significant and long term impact on one’s life then that particular outrage will not have stuck in folk’s memories.

              • tracey

                “National has a policy of abolishing the Maori seats but as a condition of the Maori Party support on confidence and supply for the past three terms, it has agreed not to pursue it.”

                http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11894212

                • Rosemary McDonald

                  Yes indeedy.

                  I was one of those cheering Tariana on as she crossed the floor all those years ago…

                  https://www.facebook.com/MaoriParty/posts/774138012597354

                  “This is a woman of principles.” I foolishly declared.

                  Then the expedient agreement with National…with the claim that ‘we need to be on the Government benches to achieve gains for Maori.’

                  Well, Tariana (and Te Ureroa, ‘cos you too denied all knowledge of your betrayal of disabled Kiwis and their chosen whanau carers) let me tell you about a couple I know.

                  Maori, worked their arses off all their lives yet still living in a crappy old caravan with no water or toilet, when as a result of surgery for poorly monitored cancer he had a stroke and needed full time support. The hours per week of homebased care (now in a crappy state house in the bronx part of town) they have been allocated has to be paid to someone not living in the home…despite the fact that he only wants his wife to do his cares. They could really, really do with the few extra dollars she’d be paid for doing what anyone else not living at that address would be paid for.

                  And, for fucks sake…Tariana had said a couple of years earlier she supported paying family carers.

                  Confidence and supply? Sure, I get it.

                  But Turia had already demonstrated she had her limits of what she was willing to support…hence her quitting Labour in 2004.

                  Clearly the cripples and their family carers (including Maori) were not worth making a stand for.

                  Hypocrites.

              • weka

                I was simply asking for the name of the legislation you referred to. I scanned the links, not going to read the whole of them because I’m busy with other things right now.

                • Rosemary McDonald

                  Sometimes I wonder about you weka.

                  You sometimes comment like you have the handle on disability issues and the struggles of the disability community…then you appear to have forgotten the nastiest piece of legislation ever aimed at our community.

                  The Green Party…especially Catherine Delahunty were staunch advocates on this issue…organised a meeting at the Beehive in 2013 to discuss the legislation.

                  It was BIG…set the NZ legal fraternity abuzz and copped the NZ Government an admonishment from the United Nations.

                  And you seem to have forgotten about it and the involvement of the Maori Party in enabling it.

                  • Karen

                    Catherine Delahunty is a hero when it comes to advocacy on disability issues and I was devastated when she decided not to stand again.

                    • tracey

                      Agree with this ^^^^^

                      Nicky Wagner perfectly encapsulates National’s response to this highly vulnerable group…

                      Rather be on the water than talking to disability advocatez
                      Skipped the Disability debate attended by all parties

                  • weka

                    FFS, I’m in the middle of researching and writing a post about WINZ. It’s hard work because I’m unwell. I don’t have the time this morning to stop and read two very involved posts about another area of disability. I simply wanted to know the name of the legislation for future reference so that when I have time and space to think about it I will have a reference point.

                    “And you seem to have forgotten about it and the involvement of the Maori Party in enabling it.”

                    No, I haven’t said anything about that, I’ve just asked for the name of the legislation. More than once.

                    And fwiw, my disability affects my memory. I rely on good research skills to keep me up with things, and I often have to do a lot of searching before I comment on things to make sure I have gotten it right. Hence my very straightforward request for some simple information that I could access easily. But if you don’t know the name of the Act, I’m happy to drop the conversation now.

                    • Rosemary McDonald

                      http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2013/0022/latest/whole.html

                      New Zealand Public Health and Disability Amendment Act 2013

                      Part4A

                      “Family care policies
                      “70A Purpose of this Part

                      “(1) The purpose of this Part is to keep the funding of support services provided by persons to their family members within sustainable limits in order to give effect to the restraint imposed by section 3(2) and to affirm the principle that, in the context of the funding of support services, families generally have primary responsibility for the well-being of their family members.

                      “(2) To achieve that purpose, this Act, among other things,—

                      “(a) prohibits the Crown or a DHB from paying a person for providing support services to a family member unless the payment is permitted by an applicable family care policy or is expressly authorised by or under an enactment:

                      “(b) declares that the Crown and DHBs have always been authorised, and continue to be authorised, to adopt or have family care policies that permit persons to be paid, in certain cases, for providing support services to family members:

                      “(c) stops (subject to certain savings) any complaint to the Human Rights Commission and any proceeding in any court if the complaint or proceeding is, in whole or in part, based on an assertion that a person’s right to freedom from discrimination on any of the grounds of marital status, disability, age, or family status (affirmed by section 19 of the New Zealand Bill of Rights Act 1990) has been breached by—

                      “(i) a provision of this Part; or

                      “(ii) a family care policy; or

                      “(iii) anything done or omitted in compliance, or intended compliance, with this Part or a family care policy.

                      Happy to answer any questions about the legal cases that led to this Act.

                      Also happy to provide link to documents that show that Labour could have and should have sorted this issue before it went to the Human Rights Review Tribunal in 2008.

                      The reason why I voted two ticks Green…Labour’s crocodile tears on the day that legislation was passed failed to move me

                      I still don’t trust them.

                    • tracey

                      Rosemary

                      Isnt Ruth Dyson still there? I remember her “review” in 06 or 07. So many families put through reproving their disability, worrying if their loved one would be forced to find work that didnt exist. My brother in laws cerebral palsy hadnt been cured but still had to be reviewed and is regularly. Not for increased services but to make sure he hasnt miraculously cured.

    • weka 6.3

      There’s a huge Maori Party billboard over Waterloo Quay this morning:

      “Labour betrayed Maori.
      Foreshore and Seabed Act.
      Party vote Maori Party.”

      Just fyi…

      They have a point.

      • tracey 6.3.1

        And yet they partnered with the folks who thought F and S didnt go far enough…

        And yesterday Fox apppeated to be chastising Labour for voting for Marriage Equality

        • simonm 6.3.1.1

          Fox is a socially conservative Mormon. She sits somewhere to the right of Bill English on same-sex marriage and abortion. She’s pretty much the antithesis of Jacinda, who left the Mormon church because she didn’t agree with it on those issues.

          • tracey 6.3.1.1.1

            I was wondering why she tweeted that so vehemently. I wonder how she feels about English and Joyce lying and that English says he now suports gay marriage.

            NZF also plans to recriminalise prostitution.

            Time for young people and younger thinkers to have some power.

      • Karen 6.3.2

        Not really. There are only three Labour MPs left who voted for that legislation standing in this election. Both Jacinda Ardern and Andrew Little before her and several other Labour MPs have said Labour were wrong. Labour will have between 12 and 14 Māori MPs in their next caucus. It will make it a impossible for legislation like the S & F to go through in the future.

        Ever since Tuku Morgan became president of the Māori Party they have been running a very nasty campaign attacking Labour constantly. Marama Fox has lied repeatedly and I no longer have any respect for her because of this (as well as when she voted for the sale of state houses).

        I will be more than happy if the Māori Party don’t win any seats – then maybe they will get rid of Tuku and reform.

        • Rosemary McDonald 6.3.2.1

          ” Fox has lied repeatedly and I no longer have any respect for her because of this (as well as when she voted for the sale of state houses).”

          And for her stunning declaration against a CGT on second and third houses…because , like, most Maori own two or three rental properties to supplement their National Super.

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49J4wrJw6lc

      • Brokenback 6.3.3

        Where are the activists?

        Such a sign needs to bombed – KUPAPA!

  7. One Two 7

    Polling allowed up until the election

    Banana Republic!

  8. cleangreen 8

    Winston does hold the key to this election as he told anyone who wanted to listen during his interview with John Campbell on ‘checkpoiint’ earlier this week when asked if he would work with a labour/Green Government he said “everythings negociable”

    He said on several occassions (including several public meetings we were at or reviewed live screening of shows he will work with all opposition who want to change the government.

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=201858966

    National heard that pleadge from Winston and this week Bill English signalled his reponse of this to a reporter said “in order to have a stable National Governent we have to get rid of the Greens & NZ First.”

    • weka 8.1

      If you’re going to quote a politician (or anyone) please provide a reference or link. If it’s not a quote, and you are paraphrasing, please make that clear and don’t use quotation marks.

  9. cleangreen 9

    Thanks Weka; I fixed this o/k? ref; please provide a reference or link

    Winston does hold the key to this election as he told anyone who wanted to listen during his interview with John Campbell see link here on ‘checkpoint’ http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=201858966

    This was earlier this week when asked by John if he would work with a labour/Green Government he said clearly everything’s negociable.

    He said this also on several occassions we observed including several public meetings we were either at or that we reviewed live screening of those public meetings such as the Rail debate in Northland last month and we believe he will work with all opposition who want to change the government.

    National obviously heard that pledge from Winston and this week Bill English was signalling his reponse of his distain to MSM when reported saying in order to have a stable National Governent we have to get rid of the Greens & NZ First.

    There is a wide range of possiblities as Weka says correctly here to consider, as a variance of opinion on which way the election will go or where NZ First will go.

    But in my observation Winston wants to get rid of national now.

    • tracey 9.1

      His new bottom line is no water tax. You reckon that is a guy wanting to side with Labour.

      • Labour has said they want some means to clean up water and have campaigned on the tax, but that’s not to say they couldn’t either adopt the Greens’ nitrate tax policy instead, (if Peters is good with that) or work out alternative funding mechanisms to clean up waterways that Winston will okay.

        If it comes to negotiations with NZ First, there’ll be either one or two adults in the room, (depending on whether it’s labour-NZF negotiations or Labour&Green-NZF negotiations) and they’ll be able to make it work.

    • weka 9.2

      I was referring to this,

      and this week Bill English signalled his reponse of this to a reporter said “in order to have a stable National Governent we have to get rid of the Greens & NZ First.”

      You appear to be quoting English, is that right? What’s it from?

      • cleangreen 9.2.1

        Hi Weka,
        I heard it mentioned on a radio NZ panel debate this week.

        When a panelist was asked about National going into a coalition.

        He said Bill English mentioned it during a speech he made at a bussness forum he attended.

        Of course Bill would deny it, if he thought it would negatively react on the election.

        • Patricia 9.2.1.1

          I’ve been talking to a large group of homeless people this week about the election. Most of the men aren’t even on the roll but the women seem to have organised themselves better and voted early. The men felt that no party cared about them so their vote would not mean much. Maybe next time round we could have a politician or two walk and talk their way around the streets where homeless congregate.

  10. roy cartland 10

    Also remember:
    Poll ignores the undecideds within the Left as a bloc. If you’re going to vote LAB or GRE, but haven’t yet decided which… you’re not represented.

    Poll (as per NZ law) only represents those who haven’t yet voted. Many have already voted, including many more young people and possibly more ‘change’ epople than more traditional, older, status-quo voters.

    The margin of error is such that the numbers could be completely reversed. So it’s meaningless anyway.

    Still feeling the change. And look how many of the left’s issues have been appropriated: water, climate, pollution, poverty, housing, edu, health. In some respects we’ve already won a lot getting these out in the open. Just got to make them happen when we get into power.

    I’m feelin’ it. 🙂

    • james 10.1

      “Poll (as per NZ law) only represents those who haven’t yet voted”

      Incirrect.

      The question asked was if a general election was held today who would you vote for. Not who did you vote for.

      The poll included people who have voted.

      • I have no idea where to fact-check the claim that it’s illegal to poll people who have advance voted. What I know is that it’s illegal to conduct exit polls on election day, but those two things may not be considered legally equivalent.

        I’ve queried CB to see if they even check if people have voted already, and if so do they include them. I assume the answer is either “yes and yes” or “no and don’t know.”

  11. katipo 11

    As number of advanced votes is proportional to the accuracy of final result….
    https://www.libertas.digital/blog/2017/9/20/well-know-whos-won-the-election-at-701pm-thanks-to-advance-voting
    Are these votes counted before the polls close? if so does that mean there are people out there who know these totals before polls close?

    • lprent 11.1

      Are these votes counted before the polls close?

      Yes. Starting at midday if they follow their usual practice.

      if so does that mean there are people out there who know these totals before polls close?

      Yes, but there is a reason why talking about certain matters or doing certain things are prohibited on election day. The penalties for violating them can get quite extreme, and the electoral commission and the court system who oversees them tends to take a literal interpretation and don’t stand for fudging the express of implied limitations.

      The electoral act is always fun to read. http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1993/0087/122.0/DLM307519.html

  12. katipo 12

    Cheers, looks like sections 174 C through G is where this info resides.
    Seems a lot at steak and temptation for letting slip the likely final result to someone for ” a fine not exceeding $2,000″

    • Most temporary employees for the Electoral Commision are in it because they love democracy. Good luck getting those types to blab. The rest are presumably looking for the extra cash to make ends meet, and thus a $2,000 fine IS a huge disincentive.

      • cleangreen 12.1.1

        My concern is the tampering of our paper ballot voting as our investigation of the electoral commission (EC) was all bad for our security because they advised me due
        to rules of the Electoral Act 1993 we apparently have no rights to verify whether our voting paper was altered or not or has been counted correctly and worse nor does the Electoral Commission.

        Here is a copy of their response to our questions a year ago in June 2016;

        Considering The voter cannot know that the vote eventually reported is the same as the vote cast, nor can candidates or others gain confidence in the accuracy of the election by observing the voting and vote counting processes

        Electoral Commission answers;

        • “Because it is a secret ballot it is not possible for either the Commission or the voter to prove one way or the other”?

        • Please provide specific proof and evidence of that; Trust and confidence in the manual parliamentary electoral system is high.

        Electoral Commission said this in June 2016.

        “Trust and confidence in the manual parliamentary electoral system is high.
        The voting papers are the audit trail. The Electoral Act does not provide a process by which a voter can request to see their voting paper after it has been placed in a ballot box. However scrutineers can be present for the entire process. Ballot boxes are sealed until after the close of polls. They are opened in the presence of scrutineers and counted manually. ”

        Our conclussion is;

        Last year in June 2016 the responses below from the electoral commission said that;

        ‘neither the voter nor the electoral office can verify if the vote paper was accurate.’

        So if the voting paper was altered we will never know.

        As to the issue of Electoral Commission stating ;”Trust and confidence in the manual parliamentary electoral system is high.”

        Our conclussion is;

        Due to the lack of either the voter or the Electoral Commission’s abily to provide or to verify if the voting paper was recorded, read or altered or not accurately ‘interperted’ we have less “trust and Confidence ” than Electoral Ccommission state they have.

        • This is part of a single secure ballot system. The only way to keep you free from voter intimidation or vote-buying in such a system is to refuse to verify the integrity of specific ballots. Providing any information in writing to the effect that your ballot wasn’t spoiled technically tells people you cast a valid vote, which they’re not supposed to do.

          There are ways to get around this, but they involve making voting more complicated and using mechanical voting machines, which would make our elections more expensive. (Basically, you cast three votes, two of which “cancel each other out,” and you are allowed to retain a copy of one of the three. Everyone’s copied vote is then made available for public verification, because you can’t know for sure whether it was cancelled out if it was a positive vote, and you can’t know for sure who the uncancelled vote was for if it’s a negative vote)

  13. Glenn 13

    I know Bolger said “Bugger the polls” but has any Colmar Brunton or Reid poll been completely wrong this close to an election?

    • No, if I recall correctly at most the scientific polls have been outside their margin of error for a single party in 2014, which is reasonable given that they are measuring a moving target, and we typically give the 95% confidence level when referring to their margin of error. (ie. you expect only a 5% chance that a 50-50 proposition would be out by more than 3.1%)

      Polls are vulnerable to factors other than statistical uncertainty, like survey timing, limited sample size, (this is why electorate-level polls are less reliable, as they are typically only about 40% the size of party vote polls, which is why they usually report a 4.8% MoE at the 95% confidence level. They also usually take unreasonably long to survey, so if anything significant happens during the survey period the poll becomes skewed) unrepresentative demographics in their sample, (this is why polling companies usually use either quotas or weighting to make their sample “look like” the country demographically) bad wording of questions, the order of questions influencing people’s response, etc…

      The reason I make those graphs though is to show how big an effect the margin of error can have. It can completely change the election outcome. I included a third one which Weka left out because she didn’t quite understand what it covered, where I simulated using random number generation the effect of that margin of error over several hundred MMP elections to see who controlled the winning government, and broke that down into five scenarios. (they were “labour-green government outright, national(-act) government outright, Māori Party is kingmaker, NZF is kingmaker, or one of the two kingmakers has to “cross over” and support the other’s preference. I assumed a NZF preference for National and a MP preference for Labour given that until recently the Labour bloc had been ahead) Add to that the other vulnerabilities, and it’s very important to look at polls in context of the events going on, their relative shift to the previous poll by that organization, and their relative numbers to polls by other organizations for context.

      There are some limitations to that model, (the random numbers are evenly spread rather than concentrated among the middle like they should be, my polling numbers for electorates are unfair to the relevant candidate when a critical race is three-way so I just added 30% to their chances in that case, and my model’s maths assumes small parties can only win one electorate rather than treating chances over 100% as a shot at a second one) but it’s much better at showing you what outcomes are likely than simply looking at the limits of the margin of error, because it’s incredibly unlikely the polls are so skewed that either the most left-wing friendly scenario or the most right-wing friendly scenario will eventuate.

  14. I will be doing another two series of graphs tonight when I return from volunteering for the Greens, as we are expecting a Newshub/Reid Research poll tonight. (my stuff is likely to be about 10pm when I start posting, and possibly as late as 12pm before I finish the second thread with my averages, as I use the latest poll’s numbers first. The poll itself will be up by 6:30pm of course) I’ll also post those on my blog so people can tease me later if my averaging technique ends up being completely off, lol.

    (Series one will be on the seats, margins of error, and likely winner for the Newshub poll, series two will be the same for my updated average including that poll)

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    Timing is everything. And from China’s perspective, this week’s visit by its foreign minister to New Zealand could be coming at just the right moment. The visit by Wang Yi to Wellington will be his first since 2017. Anniversaries are important to Beijing. It is more than just a happy ...
    Democracy ProjectBy Geoffrey Miller
    2 days ago
  • The Kaka’s diary for the week to March 25 and beyond
    TL;DR: The key events to watch in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy in the week to March 18 include:China’s Foreign Minister visiting Wellington today;A post-cabinet news conference this afternoon; the resumption of Parliament on Tuesday for two weeks before Easter;retiring former Labour Finance Minister Grant Robertson gives his valedictory speech in Parliament; ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • Bitter and angry; Winston First
    New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters’s state-of-the-nation speech on Sunday was really a state-of-Winston-First speech. He barely mentioned any of the Government’s key policies and could not even wholly endorse its signature income tax cuts. Instead, he rehearsed all of his complaints about the Ardern Government, including an extraordinary claim ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    2 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #11
    A listing of 35 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, March 10, 2024 thru Sat, March 16, 2024. Story of the week This week we'll give you a little glimpse into how we collect links to share and ...
    2 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #11
    A listing of 35 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, March 10, 2024 thru Sat, March 16, 2024. Story of the week This week we'll give you a little glimpse into how we collect links to share and ...
    2 days ago
  • Out of Touch.
    “I’ve been internalising a really complicated situation in my head.”When they kept telling us we should wait until we get to know him, were they taking the piss? Was it a case of, if you think this is bad, wait till you get to know the real Christopher, after the ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • Bring out your Dad
    Happy fourth anniversary, Pandemic That Upended Bloody Everything. I have been observing it by enjoying my second bout of COVID. It’s 5.30 on Sunday morning and only now are lights turning back on for me.Allow me to copy and paste what I told reader Sara yesterday:Depleted, fogged and crappy. Resting, ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • Bring out your Dad
    Happy fourth anniversary, Pandemic That Upended Bloody Everything. I have been observing it by enjoying my second bout of COVID. It’s 5.30 on Sunday morning and only now are lights turning back on for me.Allow me to copy and paste what I told reader Sara yesterday:Depleted, fogged and crappy. Resting, ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • Bring out your Dad
    Happy fourth anniversary, Pandemic That Upended Bloody Everything. I have been observing it by enjoying my second bout of COVID. It’s 5.30 on Sunday morning and only now are lights turning back on for me.Allow me to copy and paste what I told reader Sara yesterday:Depleted, fogged and crappy. Resting, ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • The bewildering world of Chris Luxon – Guns for all, not no lunch for kids
    .“$10 and a target that bleeds” - Bleeding Targets for Under $10!.Thanks for reading Frankly Speaking ! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.This government appears hell-bent on either scrapping life-saving legislation or reintroducing things that - frustrated critics insist - will be dangerous and likely ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    3 days ago
  • Expert Opinion: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.
    It hardly strikes me as fair to criticise a government for doing exactly what it said it was going to do. For actually keeping its promises.”THUNDER WAS PLAYING TAG with lightning flashes amongst the distant peaks. Its rolling cadences interrupted by the here-I-come-here-I-go Doppler effect of the occasional passing car. ...
    3 days ago
  • Manufacturing The Truth.
    Subversive & Disruptive Technologies: Just as happened with that other great regulator of the masses, the Medieval Church, the advent of a new and hard-to-control technology – the Internet –  is weakening the ties that bind. Then, and now, those who enjoy a monopoly on the dissemination of lies, cannot and will ...
    3 days ago
  • A Powerful Sensation of Déjà Vu.
    Been Here Before: To find the precedents for what this Coalition Government is proposing, it is necessary to return to the “glory days” of Muldoonism.THE COALITION GOVERNMENT has celebrated its first 100 days in office by checking-off the last of its listed commitments. It remains, however, an angry government. It ...
    3 days ago
  • Can you guess where world attention is focussed (according to Greenpeace)? It’s focussed on an EPA...
    Bob Edlin writes –  And what is the world watching today…? The email newsletter from Associated Press which landed in our mailbox early this morning advised: In the news today: The father of a school shooter has been found guilty of involuntary manslaughter; prosecutors in Trump’s hush-money case ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago
  • Further integrity problems for the Greens in suspending MP Darleen Tana
    Bryce Edwards writes – Is another Green MP on their way out? And are the Greens severely tarnished by another integrity scandal? For the second time in three months, the Green Party has secretly suspended an MP over integrity issues. Mystery is surrounding the party’s decision to ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Jacqui Van Der Kaay: Greens’ transparency missing in action
    For the last few years, the Green Party has been the party that has managed to avoid the plague of multiple scandals that have beleaguered other political parties. It appears that their luck has run out with a second scandal which, unfortunately for them, coincided with Golraz Ghahraman, the focus ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    4 days ago
  • Bernard’s Dawn Chorus with six newsey things at 6:46am for Saturday, March 16
    TL;DR: The six newsey things that stood out to me as of 6:46am on Saturday, March 16.Andy Foster has accidentally allowed a Labour/Green amendment to cut road user chargers for plug-in hybrid vehicles, which the Government might accept; NZ Herald Thomas Coughlan Simeon Brown has rejected a plea from Westport ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • How Did FTX Crash?
    What seemed a booming success a couple of years ago has collapsed into fraud convictions.I looked at the crash of FTX (short for ‘Futures Exchange’) in November 2022 to see whether it would impact on the financial system as a whole. Fortunately there was barely a ripple, probably because it ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    4 days ago
  • Elections in Russia and Ukraine
    Anybody following the situation in Ukraine and Russia would probably have been amused by a recent Tweet on X NATO seems to be putting in an awful lot of effort to influence what is, at least according to them, a sham election in an autocracy.When do the Ukrainians go to ...
    4 days ago
  • Bernard’s six stack of substacks at 6pm on March 15
    TL;DR: Shaun Baker on Wynyard Quarter's transformation. Magdalene Taylor on the problem with smart phones. How private equity are now all over reinsurance. Dylan Cleaver on rugby and CTE. Emily Atkin on ‘Big Meat’ looking like ‘Big Oil’.Bernard’s six-stack of substacks at 6pm on March 15Photo by Jeppe Hove Jensen ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Buzz from the Beehive Finance Minister Nicola Willis had plenty to say when addressing the Auckland Business Chamber on the economic growth that (she tells us) is flagging more than we thought. But the government intends to put new life into it:  We want our country to be a ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • National’s clean car tax advances
    The Transport and Infrastructure Committee has reported back on the Road User Charges (Light Electric RUC Vehicles) Amendment Bill, basicly rubberstamping it. While there was widespread support among submitters for the principle that EV and PHEV drivers should pay their fair share for the roads, they also overwhelmingly disagreed with ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Government funding bailouts
    Peter Dunne writes – This week’s government bailout – the fifth in the last eighteen months – of the financially troubled Ruapehu Alpine Lifts company would have pleased many in the central North Island ski industry. The government’s stated rationale for the $7 million funding was that it ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Two offenders, different treatments.
    See if you can spot the difference. An Iranian born female MP from a progressive party is accused of serial shoplifting. Her name is leaked to the media, which goes into a pack frenzy even before the Police launch an … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    4 days ago
  • Treaty references omitted
    Ele Ludemann writes  – The government is omitting general Treaty references from legislation : The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last Government in a bid to get greater coherence in the public service on Treaty ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • The Ghahraman Conflict
    What was that judge thinking? Peter Williams writes –  That Golriz Ghahraman and District Court Judge Maria Pecotic were once lawyer colleagues is incontrovertible. There is published evidence that they took at least one case to the Court of Appeal together. There was a report on ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Bernard's Top 10 @ 10 'pick 'n' mix' for March 15
    TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: Climate Scorpion – the sting is in the tail. Introducing planetary solvency. A paper via the University of Exeter’s Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.Local scoop: Kāinga Ora starts pulling out of its Auckland projects and selling land RNZ ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • The day Wellington up-zoned its future
    Wellington’s massively upzoned District Plan adds the opportunity for tens of thousands of new homes not just in the central city (such as these Webb St new builds) but also close to the CBD and public transport links. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Wellington gave itself the chance of ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 15-March-2024
    It’s Friday and we’re halfway through March Madness. Here’s some of the things that caught our attention this week. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday Matt asked how we can get better event trains and an option for grade separating Morningside Dr. On Tuesday Matt looked into ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    5 days ago
  • That Word.
    Something you might not know about me is that I’m quite a stubborn person. No, really. I don’t much care for criticism I think’s unfair or that I disagree with. Few of us do I suppose.Back when I was a drinker I’d sometimes respond defensively, even angrily. There are things ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to March 15
    Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:PM Christopher Luxon said the reversal of interest deductibility for landlords was done to help renters, who ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Labour’s policy gap
    It was not so much the Labour Party but really the Chris Hipkins party yesterday at Labour’s caucus retreat in Martinborough. The former Prime Minister was more or less consistent on wealth tax, which he was at best equivocal about, and social insurance, which he was not willing to revisit. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #11 2024
    Open access notables A Glimpse into the Future: The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change, Kuhlbrodt et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society: In the year 2023, we have seen extraordinary extrema in high sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and in ...
    5 days ago
  • Melissa remains mute on media matters but has something to say (at a sporting event) about economic ...
     Buzz from the Beehive   The text reproduced above appears on a page which records all the media statements and speeches posted on the government’s official website by Melissa Lee as Minister of Media and Communications and/or by Jenny Marcroft, her Parliamentary Under-secretary.  It can be quickly analysed ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • The return of Muldoon
    For forty years, Robert Muldoon has been a dirty word in our politics. His style of government was so repulsive and authoritarian that the backlash to it helped set and entrench our constitutional norms. His pig-headedness over forcing through Think Big eventually gave us the RMA, with its participation and ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Will the rental tax cut improve life for renters or landlords?
    Bryce Edwards writes –  Is the new government reducing tax on rental properties to benefit landlords or to cut the cost of rents? That’s the big question this week, after Associate Finance Minister David Seymour announced on Sunday that the Government would be reversing the Labour Government’s removal ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Geoffrey Miller: What Saudi Arabia’s rapid changes mean for New Zealand
    Saudi Arabia is rarely far from the international spotlight. The war in Gaza has brought new scrutiny to Saudi plans to normalise relations with Israel, while the fifth anniversary of the controversial killing of Jamal Khashoggi was marked shortly before the war began on October 7. And as the home ...
    Democracy ProjectBy Geoffrey Miller
    5 days ago
  • Racism’s double standards
    Questions need to be asked on both sides of the world Peter Williams writes –   The NRL Judiciary hands down an eight week suspension to Sydney Roosters forward Spencer Leniu , an Auckland-born Samoan, after he calls Ezra Mam, Sydney-orn but of Aboriginal and Torres Strait ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • It’s not a tax break
    Ele Ludemann writes – Contrary to what many headlines and news stories are saying, residential landlords are not getting a tax break. The government is simply restoring to them the tax deductibility of interest they had until the previous government removed it. There is no logical reason ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • The Plastic Pig Collective and Chris' Imaginary Friends.
    I can't remember when it was goodMoments of happiness in bloomMaybe I just misunderstoodAll of the love we left behindWatching our flashbacks intertwineMemories I will never findIn spite of whatever you becomeForget that reckless thing turned onI think our lives have just begunI think our lives have just begunDoes anyone ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Who is responsible for young offenders?
    Michael Bassett writes – At first reading, a front-page story in the New Zealand Herald on 13 March was bizarre. A group of severely intellectually limited teenagers, with little understanding of the law, have been pleading to the Justice Select Committee not to pass a bill dealing with ram ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on National’s fantasy trip to La La Landlord Land
    How much political capital is Christopher Luxon willing to burn through in order to deliver his $2.9 billion gift to landlords? Evidently, Luxon is: (a) unable to cost the policy accurately. As Anna Burns-Francis pointed out to him on Breakfast TV, the original ”rock solid” $2.1 billion cost he was ...
    6 days ago
  • Bernard's Top 10 @ 10 'pick 'n' mix' for March 14
    TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: Jonathon Porritt calling bullshit in his own blog post on mainstream climate science as ‘The New Denialism’.Local scoop: The Wellington City Council’s list of proposed changes to the IHP recommendations to be debated later today was leaked this ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • No, Prime Minister, rents don’t rise or fall with landlords’ costs
    TL;DR: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said yesterday tenants should be grateful for the reinstatement of interest deductibility because landlords would pass on their lower tax costs in the form of lower rents. That would be true if landlords were regulated monopolies such as Transpower or Auckland Airport1, but they’re not, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • Cartoons: ‘At least I didn’t make things awkward’
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Tom Toro Tom Toro is a cartoonist and author. He has published over 200 cartoons in The New Yorker since 2010. His cartoons appear in Playboy, the Paris Review, the New York Times, American Bystander, and elsewhere. Related: What 10 EV lovers ...
    6 days ago
  • Solving traffic congestion with Richard Prebble
    The business section of the NZ Herald is full of opinion. Among the more opinionated of all is the ex-Minister of Transport, ex-Minister of Railways, ex MP for Auckland Central (1975-93, Labour), Wellington Central (1996-99, ACT, then list-2005), ex-leader of the ACT Party, uncle to actor Antonia, the veritable granddaddy ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    6 days ago
  • I Think I'm Done Flying Boeing
    Hi,Just quickly — I’m blown away by the stories you’ve shared with me over the last week since I put out the ‘Gary’ podcast, where I told you about the time my friend’s flatmate killed the neighbour.And you keep telling me stories — in the comments section, and in my ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago
  • Invoking Aristotle: Of Rings of Power, Stones, and Ships
    The first season of Rings of Power was not awful. It was thoroughly underwhelming, yes, and left a lingering sense of disappointment, but it was more expensive mediocrity than catastrophe. I wrote at length about the series as it came out (see the Review section of the blog, and go ...
    6 days ago
  • Van Velden brings free-market approach to changing labour laws – but her colleagues stick to distr...
    Buzz from the Beehive Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden told Auckland Business Chamber members they were the first audience to hear her priorities as a minister in a government committed to cutting red tape and regulations. She brandished her liberalising credentials, saying Flexible labour markets are the ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • Why Newshub failed
    Chris Trotter writes – TO UNDERSTAND WHY NEWSHUB FAILED, it is necessary to understand how TVNZ changed. Up until 1989, the state broadcaster had been funded by a broadcasting licence fee, collected from every citizen in possession of a television set, supplemented by a relatively modest (compared ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Māori Party on the warpath against landlords and seabed miners – let’s see if mystical creature...
    Bob Edlin writes  –  The Māori Party has been busy issuing a mix of warnings and threats as its expresses its opposition to interest deductibility for landlords and the plans of seabed miners. It remains to be seen whether they  follow the example of indigenous litigants in Australia, ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • Government moves to quickly ratify the NZ-EU FTA
    "The Government is moving quickly to realise an additional $46 million in tariff savings in the EU market this season for Kiwi exporters,” Minister for Trade and Agriculture, Todd McClay says. Parliament is set, this week, to complete the final legislative processes required to bring the New Zealand – European ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 hours ago
  • Positive progress for social worker workforce
    New Zealand’s social workers are qualified, experienced, and more representative of the communities they serve, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “I want to acknowledge and applaud New Zealand’s social workers for the hard work they do, providing invaluable support for our most vulnerable. “To coincide with World ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    12 hours ago
  • Minister confirms reduced RUC rate for PHEVs
    Cabinet has agreed to a reduced road user charge (RUC) rate for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. Owners of PHEVs will be eligible for a reduced rate of $38 per 1,000km once all light electric vehicles (EVs) move into the RUC system from 1 April.  ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago
  • Trade access to overseas markets creates jobs
    Minister of Agriculture and Trade, Todd McClay, says that today’s opening of Riverland Foods manufacturing plant in Christchurch is a great example of how trade access to overseas markets creates jobs in New Zealand.  Speaking at the official opening of this state-of-the-art pet food factory the Minister noted that exports ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago
  • NZ and Chinese Foreign Ministers hold official talks
    Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Wellington today. “It was a pleasure to host Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his first official visit to New Zealand since 2017. Our discussions were wide-ranging and enabled engagement on many facets of New Zealand’s relationship with China, including trade, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Kāinga Ora instructed to end Sustaining Tenancies
    Kāinga Ora – Homes & Communities has been instructed to end the Sustaining Tenancies Framework and take stronger measures against persistent antisocial behaviour by tenants, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Earlier today Finance Minister Nicola Willis and I sent an interim Letter of Expectations to the Board of Kāinga Ora. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Speech to Auckland Business Chamber: Growth is the answer
    Tēna koutou katoa. Greetings everyone. Thank you to the Auckland Chamber of Commerce and the Honourable Simon Bridges for hosting this address today. I acknowledge the business leaders in this room, the leaders and governors, the employers, the entrepreneurs, the investors, and the wealth creators. The coalition Government shares your ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Singapore rounds out regional trip
    Minister Winston Peters completed the final leg of his visit to South and South East Asia in Singapore today, where he focused on enhancing one of New Zealand’s indispensable strategic partnerships.      “Singapore is our most important defence partner in South East Asia, our fourth-largest trading partner and a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Minister van Velden represents New Zealand at International Democracy Summit
    Minister of Internal Affairs and Workplace Relations and Safety, Hon. Brooke van Velden, will travel to the Republic of Korea to represent New Zealand at the Third Summit for Democracy on 18 March. The summit, hosted by the Republic of Korea, was first convened by the United States in 2021, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Insurance Council of NZ Speech, 7 March 2024, Auckland
    ICNZ Speech 7 March 2024, Auckland  Acknowledgements and opening  Mōrena, ngā mihi nui. Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho.  Good morning, it’s a privilege to be here to open the ICNZ annual conference, thank you to Mark for the Mihi Whakatau  My thanks to Tim Grafton for inviting me ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Five-year anniversary of Christchurch terror attacks
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Lead Coordination Minister Judith Collins have expressed their deepest sympathy on the five-year anniversary of the Christchurch terror attacks. “March 15, 2019, was a day when families, communities and the country came together both in sorrow and solidarity,” Mr Luxon says.  “Today we pay our respects to the 51 shuhada ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Speech for Financial Advice NZ Conference 5 March 2024
    Speech for Financial Advice NZ Conference 5 March 2024  Acknowledgements and opening  Morena, Nga Mihi Nui.  Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho. Thanks Nate for your Mihi Whakatau  Good morning. It’s a pleasure to formally open your conference this morning. What a lovely day in Wellington, What a great ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Early visit to Indonesia strengthens ties
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters held discussions in Jakarta today about the future of relations between New Zealand and South East Asia’s most populous country.   “We are in Jakarta so early in our new government’s term to reflect the huge importance we place on our relationship with Indonesia and South ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • China Foreign Minister to visit
    Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters has announced that the Foreign Minister of China, Wang Yi, will visit New Zealand next week.  “We look forward to re-engaging with Foreign Minister Wang Yi and discussing the full breadth of the bilateral relationship, which is one of New Zealand’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Minister opens new Auckland Rail Operations Centre
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has today opened the new Auckland Rail Operations Centre, which will bring together KiwiRail, Auckland Transport, and Auckland One Rail to improve service reliability for Aucklanders. “The recent train disruptions in Auckland have highlighted how important it is KiwiRail and Auckland’s rail agencies work together to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Celebrating 10 years of Crankworx Rotorua
    The Government is proud to support the 10th edition of Crankworx Rotorua as the Crankworx World Tour returns to Rotorua from 16-24 March 2024, says Minister for Economic Development Melissa Lee.  “Over the past 10 years as Crankworx Rotorua has grown, so too have the economic and social benefits that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government delivering on tax commitments
    Legislation implementing coalition Government tax commitments and addressing long-standing tax anomalies will be progressed in Parliament next week, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The legislation is contained in an Amendment Paper to the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill issued today.  “The Amendment Paper represents ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Significant Natural Areas requirement to be suspended
    Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard has today announced that the Government has agreed to suspend the requirement for councils to comply with the Significant Natural Areas (SNA) provisions of the National Policy Statement for Indigenous Biodiversity for three years, while it replaces the Resource Management Act (RMA).“As it stands, SNAs ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government classifies drought conditions in Top of the South as medium-scale adverse event
    Agriculture Minister Todd McClay has classified the drought conditions in the Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts as a medium-scale adverse event, acknowledging the challenging conditions facing farmers and growers in the district. “Parts of Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts are in the grip of an intense dry spell. I know ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government partnership to tackle $332m facial eczema problem
    The Government is helping farmers eradicate the significant impact of facial eczema (FE) in pastoral animals, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced.  “A $20 million partnership jointly funded by Beef + Lamb NZ, the Government, and the primary sector will save farmers an estimated NZD$332 million per year, and aims to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • NZ, India chart path to enhanced relationship
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has completed a successful visit to India, saying it was an important step in taking the relationship between the two countries to the next level.   “We have laid a strong foundation for the Coalition Government’s priority of enhancing New Zealand-India relations to generate significant future benefit for both countries,” says Mr Peters, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Ruapehu Alpine Lifts bailout the last, say Ministers
    Cabinet has agreed to provide $7 million to ensure the 2024 ski season can go ahead on the Whakapapa ski field in the central North Island but has told the operator Ruapehu Alpine Lifts it is the last financial support it will receive from taxpayers. Cabinet also agreed to provide ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Govt takes action to drive better cancer services
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Govt takes action to drive better cancer services
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Work begins on SH29 upgrades near Tauriko
    Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Work begins on SH29 upgrades near Tauriko
    Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Fresh produce price drop welcome
    Lower fruit and vegetable prices are welcome news for New Zealanders who have been doing it tough at the supermarket, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. Stats NZ reported today the price of fruit and vegetables has dropped 9.3 percent in the 12 months to February 2024.  “Lower fruit and vege ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Statement to the 68th United Nations Commission on the Status of Women
    Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all.  Chair, I am honoured to address the sixty-eighth session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Speech to the 68th United Nations Commission on the Status of Women (CSW68)
    Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all.  Chair, I am honoured to address the 68th session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
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    7 days ago
  • Speech to Auckland Business Chamber
    Good evening everyone and thank you for that lovely introduction.   Thank you also to the Honourable Simon Bridges for the invitation to address your members. Since being sworn in, this coalition Government has hit the ground running with our 100-day plan, delivering the changes that New Zealanders expect of us. ...
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  • Trustee tax change welcomed
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  • Minister’s Ramadan message
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  • Speech to Life Sciences Summit
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  • Minister to attend World Anti-Doping Agency Symposium
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