TVNZ concludes that Luxon’s pants may have been on fire

Written By: - Date published: 2:00 pm, September 21st, 2023 - 39 comments
Categories: chris hipkins, Christopher Luxon, making shit up, spin, you couldn't make this shit up - Tags:

The recent leader’s debate was really frustrating.  Not only did Christopher Luxon get way more time than Chris Hipkins but it felt to me that his presentation on various issues were up to the edge of what is true.

TVNZ has engaged a group of experts to comment on some of what he said and the conclusion is that his pants were on fire.

From TVNZ:

Academics at Auckland University’s Public Policy Institute (PPI) have run their eye over last night’s TVNZ Leaders’ Debate and given their verdict.

They found that Hipkins was right to say inflation is coming down, but partly wrong to claim National tax cuts would worsen inflation.

Meanwhile, Luxon was incorrect to claim National invented the phrase “by Māori, for Māori” but on the mark in saying retail crime had doubled in the last two years. The PPI found Luxon to be the main offender on making false claims in the debate.

And here are the whoppers:

MOSTLY UNTRUE

• Foreign home buyers tax would bring in $750 million (Luxon) – in reality, it is estimated to be about $210 million.

FALSE

• No fruit and veg GST savings will be passed on to customers (Luxon) – Grocery Commissioner will monitor pricing to prevent this.

• Labour didn’t implement the Circuit Breaker initiative (Luxon) – Has been rolled out and is being extended.

• National supports school lunches for all (Luxon) – They support the current policy (targeted lunches) pending a review of costs.

• National invented “By Māori, for Māori” (Luxon) – Used in matauranga Māori by Māori thinkers and leaders such as Mason Durie decades before

• Every single health outcome has gone backwards under Labour (Luxon) – Most health outcomes (eg general mortality, cancer deaths, maternal health) have remained the same or improved.

As a Christian I hope he reflects on the importance of being truthful.

By way of contrast Hipkins’ answers were determined to be either true, mostly true or half true.  The half true statement was that National tax cuts would make inflation worse on the basis that it depends on government spending.  Generally tax cuts would make it worse.  I guess savaging Government spending could have a deflationary effect.

The analysis reinforces the very strong message that you cannot trust National.

39 comments on “TVNZ concludes that Luxon’s pants may have been on fire ”

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  1. Cricklewood 1
    21 September 2023 at 4:00 pm

    They lost me when they decided this was false. 'No fruit and veg GST savings will be passed on to customers' because of the grocery commissioner…who will be effectivly be a toothless tiger.

    Basically destroyed their credibilty with that one, the supermarket duopoly will swallow up any initial savings within 3 months and it will be next to impossible to police given fresh fruit and veges in particular vary quite a lot on seasonality.

    • SPC 1.1
      21 September 2023 at 4:11 pm

      There is a methodology to pricing (what they pay to others is a cost and what their mark up is, being the variable) before it gets to the retailers adding on of GST.

      What the GC can do is identify any change in the level of their mark-up.

      • Cricklewood 1.1.1
        21 September 2023 at 7:18 pm

        As far as supermarkets go thats very opaque and almost impossible to calculate with the various clawbacks, promotion fees, spoilage chargebacks etc. I doubt the commisioner would be able to unpick those. Its very possible thwy would pay the supplier more to keep basic margin similar but make changes to the clawbacks which are a seperate transaction.

        • In Vino 1.1.1.1
          22 September 2023 at 10:20 am

          I find it hugely ironic that Luxon claimed that supermarkets would fail to pass price reductions on, but later implied that all his nice 'Mum and Dad investors' would be only too keen to pass their tax savings on to tenants in their rental properties.. Tui moment.

          • Cricklewood 1.1.1.1.1
            22 September 2023 at 10:31 am

            Yep, both landlords and supermarkets will seek to maximise profit at every opportunity. Anyone thinking something other to that is delusional or lying.

  2. SPC 2
    21 September 2023 at 4:06 pm

    Under mostly untrue

    Luxon's claim that parents with children would be $250 a fortnight better off.

    Only if there are two parents both working and they are paying a large amount for pre school child care.

    Most couples do not have children under 5, and those that do might have a stay at home parent and home school or use low cost playcentres.

    Working couples get $50 a week ($25 a week each).

    If they qualify, there is $25 extra in WFF tax credit – the same extra under Labour.

    • Christopher Randal 2.1
      21 September 2023 at 5:43 pm

      Targeting one group over another is unfair and discriminatory. Doesn't the Bill of Rights forbid it?

      • James Simpson 2.1.1
        21 September 2023 at 6:06 pm

        So targeting those aged over 65 with a weekly super payment is a breach of the Bill of Rights as those under 65 do not get the payment?

        • Descendant Of Smith 2.1.1.1
          23 September 2023 at 1:08 am

          It is in relation to benefit rates. The government instead of making them equal (as they once were and removing the youth rate) exempted themselves back in 2000.

          http://www.agediscrimination.info/international-age-discrimination/new-zealand

          Retirement benefits are an exception to the law also.

          • Clive Macann 2.1.1.1.1
            23 September 2023 at 3:20 pm

            I have always disagreed with Retirement income as a "benefit".
            It, to me, is an entitlement.
            A benefit makes it like something they can take off you and that should not be the case.
            Although Authorities try it all the time.
            When did it actually change to being a "Benefit" as it was never always like that?

            • Descendant Of Smith 2.1.1.1.1.1
              23 September 2023 at 5:11 pm

              Pfft that is just hypocritical semantics since Muldoon's shift to pat it out of the general account.

              Technically the legislation talks about entitlement in both the case of benefits and superannuation. No difference at all.

              Why do you consider someone paying tax while working has less entitlement to an unemployment benefit, or someone with Down's syndrome to a Supported Living Payment that someone for instance may not have worked at all their entire life and can get New Zealand Superannuation.

              None are relative to what you have paid in tax across your life – unlike the UK.

              Neither benefits not superannuation can be arbitrarily taken off you – you either have entitlement or not. There are laws to uphold.

    • Jim Price 2.2
      22 September 2023 at 10:06 pm

      So you’re saying my struggling son and his wife, and their child and household will only be $250 a week better off if they vote national? Or they’ll save gst on fruit and veg and $10 a month on prescriptions if they vote labour?

      they’re kid hates broccoli, but seems a fucking irrelevancy given the enormous gulf between a $3 head of broccoli and $125 a week to alleviate some of the pain of interest rates largely brought about by the current governments cavalier approach to the economy.

      but yeah, hug a carrot till it loves you back

      • weka 2.2.1
        23 September 2023 at 12:19 am

        where did you get $250/wk from? SPC is saying that most families wouldn't get the $250/fnight.

        Labour are offering more than the GST off fresh food and removing prescription charges. Please stop misrepresenting party policy.

      • SPC 2.2.2
        23 September 2023 at 8:16 am

        I note your willingness to promote the mostly untrue statement of Christopher Luxon.

        The $125 a week amount he mentions, includes of $75 a week in child care rebates that few are entitled to. If your grandchild is over 5 nothing, or with the mother FT under 2, again nothing.

        If the grandchild is 2 to 3, then Labour is offering a free child care alternative (extending the 3-5 child care to 2-3 year olds) worth more.

        Labour also offers free PT for those under 12 and half fare age 12-24.

        Under National singles get $25 a week and couples $50 a week otherwise in tax cuts.

        Labour is offering to increase MW to the LW ($1 an hour more each hour – ACT want a freeze and National wants risible small 25-50 cents an hour increases) and this and the FPA industry awards will ensure significant wage increases.

        Half workers would get over $20 more a week each and every year of a 3 year term from these measures – $60 each in higher wages (over $40 after tax).

        Nationals so called extra help is an illusion.

        • PsyclingLeft.Always 2.2.2.1
          23 September 2023 at 8:28 am

          Nationals so called extra help is an illusion.

          All part of their smoke and mirror NAct. This one in particular that you have cut through to, needs much more visibility…. as those with ill intent are luring the gullible/vulnerable.

          I'd say shame on them..but, they have none. Labour and the Left need to really state it.

  3. EE 3
    21 September 2023 at 4:09 pm

    I thought I heard Luxon say his favourite book was "The Inner Mind of Tennis".
    That book doesn't exist.

    Perhaps he meant this article on plant consciousness…
    "The Inner Mind of Plants"
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S026240792201541X

  4. Mike the Lefty 4
    21 September 2023 at 4:16 pm

    Something else that is false, and is very misleading for voters.

    On the first leader's debate Luxon said very early that National would reduce the cost of living, by spending less. Note he said REDUCE, not make things more affordable or raise everyone's ability to pay for things. He said REDUCE.

    I am something of a financial novice but I would like someone to explain how a government spending less will REDUCE the cost of your basket of groceries at the supermarket, the cost of filling up your car with petrol, or the cost of renting a property.

    The simple answer is that it wont. The only way to reduce the cost of living is to make things cheaper whilst maintaining the same wage rates. National will certainly not reduce or drop GST, will not reduce the petrol excise tax (except the Auckland regional fuel tax) and will not impose a rent or price freeze – and these would be the things that would reduce the cost of living.

    At its very best, reducing government spending by itself might eventually ease inflation a bit, but that would be balanced by the inflationary tax cuts that National is promising at the same time. It should also be noted that the rate of inflation is actually falling now already.

    And it should be remembered that food prices will still rise under National, despite what they imply, and we know that wages will not because their ACT buddies are determined to make sure there are no more rises to the minimum wage. So will we be better off? Yeah right!

    National's advertising and Luxon's on-camera promises are shite, they know it but are banking on getting away with it because we have a media too obsessed about trivia to deal with the biggest issues. It is a pity that the Electoral Commission has no power to prosecute a political party for pre-election lies.

    National are dishonest, pure and simple.

    • SPC 4.1
      21 September 2023 at 4:56 pm

      Inflation is forecast to hit 4% by the end of this year and 3% by the end of next year.

      Some of the costs that NACT would cause will not be in the figures though.

      Cuts to backroom will include property (maintenance and insurance and cleaning) that will result in the closure of some frontline service centres (time and cost to get to one further away) and or transfer online (time waiting will increase).

      And some agencies will propose an increase to service charges as an alternative to making cuts etc.

  5. Dennis Frank 5
    21 September 2023 at 5:46 pm

    As a Christian I hope he reflects on the importance of being truthful.

    As a Gaian, I admire your optimism. As a neolib, I suspect his values are driven by the profitability of enthusiatically promoting alternative impressions to sell policies.

    I mean, really, how many capitalists get rich by promoting truth?? Has anyone ever counted them? Thought not. I suspect everyone assumes it'd be a unicorn hunt.

  6. bwaghorn 6
    21 September 2023 at 7:32 pm

    Atleast the press are doing their jobs these days ,it's a shame they never fact checked slippery key.

    • tc 6.1
      22 September 2023 at 7:37 am

      Copy pasting press releases into news items and allowing the likes of Seymour and luxon to use slogans without being questioned on them isn't journalism.

      We see the odd bit of digging in from the likes of mutch etc but mostly they let them off the hook.

  7. Rodel 7
    21 September 2023 at 9:07 pm

    We are entering the new Trump era. Truth doesn't count.

  8. Nic the NZer 8
    22 September 2023 at 8:25 am

    I think the experts are probably more right than wrong about tax cuts impacts on inflation. Of course the standard political discourse is to claim that any increase in the budget deficit is inflationary and any decrease deflationary. This should be a very suspicious claim when dealing with internationally imported inflation, based on a combination of real supply side impacts and profiteering as a response by many businesses.

    The underlying issue is that politically we debate how to deal with inflation based on a completely false narrative. The economy the right are projecting politically (with plenty of buy in from the political left), would be an ideal one for a country emerging from a serious house price problem. Were it the case that wages were rapidly rising for most then enduring a little inflation while having house prices flat line would be just perfect.

    This is absolutely not what has happened where inflation was clearly triggered from overseas and has run ahead of any domestic wage increases.

    I completely fail to understand the political strategy of our left political parties here because, when you buy into this you severely constrain your abilities to improve the economy as it becomes all about budget constraints and hoping the private sector is presently investing to make those unimportant. In many cases this buy in is directly undermining these parties abilities to implement the policies they want to, such as investment towards a sustainable economy (Green) or moves towards a more fair and equal economy (Labour).

  9. tsmithfield 9
    22 September 2023 at 8:43 am

    Yes, political parties and politicians should always be truthful.

    • Roy Cartland 9.1
      22 September 2023 at 9:43 am

      Point taken, but those are pretty lame examples, you must admit.

      • tsmithfield 9.1.1
        22 September 2023 at 11:03 am

        Depends on how it is looked at I guess. Shaw having to correct his Linkedin profile to clarify that he didn't complete his BA is a bit of a weird one. I would have thought that would have been fairly easy to get right.

        And, even more of a mystery to me is how he managed to do an MSc without a Batchelor's degree which is normally a prerequisite. When I did my MA, I had to have a BA. Not only that, my grades had to be good to get through. I think a B+ average was the cut off.

        I know there is some conspiracy stuff flying around about this at the moment. But, I think there is likely an innocent explanation.

        • Roy Cartland 9.1.1.1
          22 September 2023 at 11:46 am

          I'd agree with that. God knows what my LinkedIn says at the moment! It's sloppy, but James is not so idiotic as to try to trick anyone, why bother?

          The others are technicalities, as are some of Luxon's above.

          • Belladonna 9.1.1.1.1
            23 September 2023 at 10:17 am

            I wouldn't regard Andrew Little's claim that National and ACT would sell off all the schools and sack the teachers – as a technicality.

            There is nothing in any of the education policies for those parties – that I've found – which could be interpreted in this way.

            This is not the first hard campaign that Little has been involved in (I can attribute some of the others, like Halbert, to the pressure of being under fire for the first time) – but Little should indeed know better.

            More to the point, it's stupidly short-sighted. For a lie to be effective in politics, it has to be believable.