Unemployment Up

Written By: - Date published: 12:08 pm, February 3rd, 2011 - 23 comments
Categories: employment, unemployment - Tags:

The December quarter employment statistics are out.  And there’s a big jump up to 6.8% unemployment.  11,000 people lost their jobs, 8,000 became “unemployed” and 3,000 others left the workforce altogether.  The labour force participation rate (the number of people of working age, working) is down to 67.9%.

If we look further into the stats we see long-term unemployment rising, with a particular bubble who have been unemployed between 1 and 2 years – since the recession lay-offs began.  The number unemployed that long has nearly doubled in the last year.  That’s a lot of people who’ve been consigned to the scrap-heap that National haven’t done anything to help.

National, without an economic plan, aren’t creating jobs.  Unemployment has dropped a mere 0.2% in the last year.  There is no aggressive recovery from recession for Aotearoa.  The US, Australia, China are all back in gear and growing – we will probably find that we slipped back into recession last quarter.

Bill English called unemployment under 6% a hoax in 1999, but Labour got it down to 3.5%, and kept it consistently below Australia.  When the rate first started rising under National they crowed that we were still doing better than Oz…  But now their unemployment rate is 5.1%, 1.7% below ours.

National’s plan to cut the muscle and more jobs in the public sector will only make things worse – more people unemployed, fewer people with money to spend and keep the private sector going.  Selling assets, whilst trader John Key’s specialty, will not improve the economy or unemployment either.  Their only ideas seem set to add to the 158,000 families stuck without a bread-winner.

23 comments on “Unemployment Up ”

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  1. Bright Red 1
    3 February 2011 at 12:21 pm

    two and a half years ago, there were 10,000 people who had been unemployed for half a year or more. Today, it’s 45,000.

    Back then, 2,400 had been out of work for over a year, today it’s 15,000.

    the long-term damage that long-term unemployment creates should not be under-estimated.

  2. ianmac 2
    3 February 2011 at 2:00 pm

    Key said on radio today that “You shouldn’t read too much into the figures as the stats are very volatile at the moment.” Um . No mention of trends then?

    • Zaphod Beeblebrox 2.1
      3 February 2011 at 3:01 pm

      I’d say the stats are pretty consistent- GDP, property prices, wages, retail sales now unemployment. All headed the same way.

  3. Graham 3
    3 February 2011 at 2:01 pm

    More people they can kick in the balls…

  4. kriswgtn 4
    3 February 2011 at 2:03 pm

    Does this include the ones who have lost their jobs and headed for greener pastures overseas?

    In past 18 months 30 people I know have quit NZ

    anti spam = analysis

    yeah tory sockpuppets-the numbers dont lie eh

    • Colonial Viper 4.1
      3 February 2011 at 6:18 pm

      530,000 NZ born NZ’ers now living in Oz. That’s 2009 stats too, I believe. Number must be approaching 600,000 now.

      Even excluding the children, if all them came back tomorrow our unemployment rate would cross 20%.

      The opportunity to go work in Australia for better pay has been a huge safety valve for our society. Without it we would really see how stuffed we are.

  6. Adrian 6
    3 February 2011 at 4:27 pm

    Apparently in Marlborough in January there were 3 building consents issued and one of them was for a fireplace. Under Labour the normal amount was around 30 a month. That’s aspirational ! Have you noticed how many groups have been spruiking a better future only to be undone when the real numbers come out. You can only bullshit so much until all credibility is gone. My bet is that we are in a deep double dip orchestrated by the man himself , Double Dip Bill.

  7. Kevin Welsh 7
    3 February 2011 at 7:03 pm

    Bunter Bennett was priceless on TV3 News tonight:

    “Well obviously there’s just not as many jobs out there for people that want them”

    How the fuck does this person warrant having a job when there are so many out there looking for one?

    • prism 7.1
      3 February 2011 at 8:40 pm

      This morning on Radionz there was an economist proclaiming the 90 day law has increased jobs. He seemed very sure so how is it his info seems the opposite to other? Worth a listen on audio.

      http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport
      90-days probationary period leads to more jobs 7.53 a.m.
      New research has found that the government’s 90-day probationary period for workers is creating more jobs. (duration: 3′20″)
      Download: Ogg Vorbis MP3

      • KJT 7.1.1
        3 February 2011 at 8:49 pm

        Of course. If they only last for three months.

      • Carol 7.1.2
        3 February 2011 at 8:55 pm

        I heard some of that live. Basically the guy said his conclusions were an educated guess. But he stood by them as being based on what he considered to be some solid calculations. Sounded like statistical jiggery pokery to me.

        He claimed to be objective and free of political bias. But then at the end, he said he guessed that the extension of the 90 day law to bigger corporations would also result in increases of jobs. But he also admitted that this prediction was just a guess, and not an educated one…. no bias huh?

  8. tsmithfield 8
    3 February 2011 at 7:16 pm

    “The US, Australia, China are all back in gear and growing”

    What you fail to mention is that the US and Oz have gone considerably more into debt to boost their economies. Those chickens will come home to roost at some stage.

    Also China and Australia are both in bubble territory, and thus may not be so good for too much longer.

    Furthermore, Europe that has been taking a more austere approach, even given the problems associated with the PIIGS, seems to be rebounding now, most likely in a much more sustainable way.

    The take-away is that our economy needs to grow sustainably, not via a sugar-rush of debt that has to be repaid in the future.

    • Bunji 8.1
      3 February 2011 at 7:34 pm

      Oz has some of the least debt there is – it’s expected to peak at 6.4% of GDP next year.

      And Europe had some very big stimulus packages. Britain bought its banks, France spent 26 billion euros, the EU 200 billion euros…

      Yes some have changed tack for austerity now (see Britain, GDP contraction Q4 2010), but the growth in Germany many are betting on certainly isn’t based on the austerity in Greece…

      Government spending needs to be counter-cyclical to balance the over-exuberance (greed, then fear) of the market, and keep the economy going. See Cullen, M. with resistance to tax cuts so books are in good shape for a stimulus package in NZ. Shame we didn’t get it and we’ll have a double-dip recession instead thanks.

      • Draco T Bastard 8.1.1
        3 February 2011 at 8:55 pm

        Oz has some of the least debt there is – it’s expected to peak at 6.4% of GDP next year.

        I take it you’re only talking about their government debt? Because their private debt is closer to 150% of GDP (from here

        • Bunji 8.1.1.1
          4 February 2011 at 7:53 am

          Yes, government debt, because ts was talking about government stimulus, and debt countries will have to pay back for that.
          I think the 150% debt must be gross debt, there seem to be lots of other sources that put household debt at just under 100% (still awful), which I guess will be net private debt after Australia’s good savings record. So surprisingly still worse than us, even with their savings.

          But my point was government debt…

    • Colonial Viper 8.2
      3 February 2011 at 7:42 pm

      The take-away is that our economy needs to grow sustainably, not via a sugar-rush of debt that has to be repaid in the future.

      Hmmmm this means the economy hasn’t grown sustainably in…how long? 10 years?

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