We’re going to sign a rubbish deal

Written By: - Date published: 8:58 am, July 30th, 2015 - 106 comments
Categories: capitalism, class war, national, trade - Tags: , , , ,

On RNZ this morning:

TPP deal is precarious – NZ envoy

New Zealand’s special agricultural trade envoy at the TPP talks in Hawaii has cast doubt on whether the trade deal is going to be acceptable to New Zealand.

Mike Petersen said more concessions on dairy products were needed before New Zealand could sign the Trans Pacific Partnership agreement.
…
“The deal’s simply not at the stage where the industry could support it or even New Zealand could really accept this deal. “This is pretty precarious here at the moment. “Everyone knows that dairy’s a major sticking point and we’re needing much greater progress in that area if we’re going to put this deal to bed by the end of the week.”

Nations with large and protected industries were “pushing back”.

Pushing back? Really? Is it easier for them to push back when we have already given away all our cards? Combine this reality check with Vernon Small’s observation:

Sure as sunrise, New Zealand will sign up to the TPP if a deal is on offer

OPINION: Based on previous observations the sun will more than likely come up tomorrow and New Zealand will sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal if, as appears likely, it is finalised this week.

Actually it will sign it whatever week it is finalised. The Government has far too much skin in the game to walk away.

When ministers say they would reject the TPP if it is not in New Zealand’s best interests, unless there is a good deal on dairy, unless, unless, unless … there is only really one response. Yeah, right.

We’re going to sign a rubbish deal to protect a few Nat egos.

Update: Read what a real journalist has to say on the current state of negotiations – thank you Gordon Campbell.

106 comments on “We’re going to sign a rubbish deal ”

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  1. Ad 1
    30 July 2015 at 9:15 am

    What I find particularly chilling is the timing of the McKinsey Group findings into restructuring Fonterra will be due out late next week at the Fonterra Shareholders Meeting, and also in time to digest the results of the TPPA agreement on dairy and in particular New Zealand.

    No doubt we have been dogged and doughty little negotiators so far, but we have clearly not attracted a broad coalition to our issues, after I think 5 years of negotiating.

    What is at stake is the future of Fonterra. Whatever the moisties here think of the dairy industry, Fonterra is our number one company by a country mile. Unless there is a major legislative review of its monopoly, it will remain so.

    As a result of this near-monopoly, Fonterra dominates our land, our rural debt profile, our dairy exports and indeed our entire exports, our Research and Development expenditure as a whole, our high quality private sector jobs, three of our universities, and our diplomatic and trade outreach to our key international relationships. And on the Crown side, huge exposure to Landcorp.

    So now all of that is on the table, with Groser the one guy to do it apparently, all done and dusted within 48 hours.

    The real hit is at the Fonterra Shareholders meeting a few days hence.

    But Key should not have allowed this accumulated risk to peak right here, right now. Very poor PM management – now NZ’s economy is waiting on an unlikely miracle.

    • Colonial Viper 1.1
      30 July 2015 at 10:21 am

      Even if a favourable deal comes through for dairy via the TPPA it is likely that any changes would be graduated over a long period of years to allow nations removing dairy tariffs and subsidies to manage the transition with their agricultural sectors.

      Therefore, not even a so-called “favourable” deal on dairy would have a material effect on helping NZ for many years yet.

      • Ad 1.1.1
        30 July 2015 at 1:42 pm

        I don’t mind that timing so much.
        We are still reaping the rewards of CER with Australia when it was started in the second term of Robert Muldoon.
        We will be another decade before the full impact of the China-NZ FTA really hits.

        My point is not merely that it’s a cost or benefit.

        My point is that while tilting our full economic direction for decades to come, Key clearly does not have steady hands. That core criteria of good PM is missing.

  2. Save NZ 2
    30 July 2015 at 9:27 am

    Grosser is an absolute idiot and only complete ideological fools could champion an agreement which is secret but binding.

    This could have been a vote game changer for the opposition parties to collaborate over but with feeble no’s and feeble conditional yes’s, another wasted opportunity.

    It is not too late for the opposition to actually mount some sort of real public resistance.

    But do they have the guts to do so?

  3. Skinny 3
    30 July 2015 at 9:36 am

    The real impact on us could well come from China. Make no mistake this is an American attack against China. Their recent sharemarket slide is showing the nervousness at the likely effect the TPPA will have on the Chinese. The snake department of National have managed to avoid this discussion, however I fully expect a backlash to our economy with China giving us a serve for teaming with the gobal bully the U.S.A.

    Be very interesting to see how gobal markets react next week after the deal gets sealed
    On Sunday over in John Key’s second home of Hawaii.

    • Wayne 3.1
      30 July 2015 at 12:05 pm

      Skinny,

      What complete nonsense. China is hardly going to retaliate against all its major trading partners, given they are all part of TPP.

      It is much more likely that China will want to join TPP.

      Global markets will go up on the basis of TPP being concluded. After all in your world TPP is all about advantaging global companies at the expense of everyone else, so clearly stock markets, being a conspiracy against the poor, will go up.

      • Skinny 3.1.1
        30 July 2015 at 1:56 pm

        Cut it out you neo liberal shill China has deliberately been left out in the cold.

  4. Skinny 4
    30 July 2015 at 9:50 am

    * Global

    • greywarshark 4.1
      30 July 2015 at 11:28 am

      Skinny
      That power play is going on under our noses. Only the complacent, naive and juvenile can’t be aware of it. And the bully bit is there for us all no matter the spelling. Even in the country of the powers that be, their own individuals are bullied and oppressed when it suits their powerful groups.

      I’m thinking of food processors and farmers in USA taking legal action against Oprah during the beef brain scare, an earlier dairy information shutdown with threatened journalists when fire retardant pellets got mixed with cow feed pellets and poisoned and paralysed many cows in some of the states. Then there was the mismanagement of stock in Britain so spreading the cow disease, either foot and mouth or brain affecting outbreak. Peoples animals were slaughtered by the millions, breeding stock lost. Huge scares and swinging controls, because of lost overseas markets, rather than doing what was best for the country and the ordinary people.

      • Skinny 4.1.1
        30 July 2015 at 1:52 pm

        I like your words of wisdom Grey. it is shocking what goes on in the World, like why the heck are we still using non biodegradable plastic. Last night I was celebrating a friends birthday on his yacht. The subject was raised by a fellow yachty friend of his, they were telling me of a place in the ocean they had both sailed in the Bermuda triangle region, where there is a plastic floating island and the effect it is having on marine life. It is sad as humans we impose such hatred of our planet and its creatures.

        • greywarshark 4.1.1.1
          30 July 2015 at 2:08 pm

          Thank you Skinny. You don’t always agree with me but that’s okay and we all swirl around our ideas which can clash.

          That bunch of plastic, it may be that if only we got in to help the environment, we could do something to make the rubbish useful and not a disaster. It’s part of our old regime using oil and throw aways, bad.

          It floats so that is a useful attribute. One of the effects of warming is that some areas of the ocean are going to warm up too much. It may be that these floating islands of rubbish could be contained, have strings and loops floating underwater cut and keep the sea cool and have a marine reserve under it. The floating bits I understand cause problems with the fish getting caught in them.

          The Forest and Bird society here is trying to get fishers to use thicker filaments that will ping to the dolphin’s sonar so they won’t get caught in the nets. It could be that this rubbish could be contained in thick filament. The same as nets needing to be in thick filament too. And once contained the rubbish islands could be towed to where they would best suit the fish for shelter. They would have to be shifted back as they drifted too far away from their designated areas. They would have to be monitored on ship’s radar, but changes have to be made all the time because of human and nature interacting.

          That improvement in two areas could enable us to manage our environment better, changing the problems to workable positive outcomes. We require lateral thinking from people other than tunnel visioned hedonists and money-mad smart-arses to get the idea and make it happen.
          edited

  5. Charles 5
    30 July 2015 at 9:55 am

    On the upside, sites like The Standard will have nothing political to talk about anymore, the authors earning a well-earned rest, since nothing will be able to be done to change anything. We can all just meet here on off-days, for idle chat on what’s impossible to afford, in our unpaid down-time, waiting for our employers to call us for immediate deployment; and dream about the time there were political parties who attempted to protect workers, care for the vulnerable, build nations, or when voting could change the outcome or direction of anything.

  7. vto 7
    30 July 2015 at 9:58 am

    Its called globalisation and unfortunately I think it is inevitable that governing authority globalises as well, which this is a part of

    It was always going to happen

    need more planets

    (edit: problem is the current proposed form of that globalised governing authority – the TPPA will shit on the little people)

    • freedom 7.1
      30 July 2015 at 10:05 am

      somedays, Star Trek’s prediction that New Zealand becomes a penal colony doesn’t seem so crazy 😉

      • Colonial Viper 7.1.1
        30 July 2015 at 11:55 am

        which episode was that in?

        • freedom 7.1.1.1
          30 July 2015 at 12:03 pm

          turns up in Voyager, Next Gen and DS9
          ( have had the various shows on as background noise over recent months and it does prick up your ears when NZ is referenced)

      • Wayne 7.1.2
        30 July 2015 at 12:06 pm

        Presumably you already think this is the aim of the Key government.

        • Ad 7.1.2.1
          30 July 2015 at 12:13 pm

          Do better Wayne.
          Good of you to join in, but step it up.

        • freedom 7.1.2.2
          30 July 2015 at 12:26 pm

          Dr Mapp, perhaps you could use your broad expertise and your no doubt extensive professional networks to help achieve some clarity on these two simple questions, so the people of New Zealand can have a better understanding of the TPPA.

          http://thestandard.org.nz/were-going-to-sign-a-rubbish-deal/#comment-1052099

          If the terms of the agreement are to be secret for a number of years after signing, how can our PM & co claim Parliament will get the chance to debate the agreement as soon as it is signed?

          Does the secrecy only apply to the draft papers and not the final negotiated texts that make up whatever they finally sign off on?

          • vto 7.1.2.2.1
            30 July 2015 at 1:01 pm

            Wayne Mapp refuses to answer questions which expose the fundamental flaws of TPPA.

            He simply does not answer them.
            ‘
            Doesn’t answer

            No answer

            Wayne Mapp has no answer

            • freedom 7.1.2.2.1.1
              30 July 2015 at 1:17 pm

              What I wonder at vto, is surely one of the political parties that sit in Parliament could ask the Minister, “you know” on the record, ‘like” actually clear it up once and for all as to when we will be able to see the details of the TPPA.
              We know it’s pointless expecting MSM journalists to find out and OIA seems a cycle of perpetuity according to many of those who have tried to get the facts.

              There must be a rule, a line of text, a smattering of legibility somewhere which states how soon after the ink dries and the last crystal flute has been emptied that the details become public.

          • Wayne 7.1.2.2.2
            30 July 2015 at 4:26 pm

            I would be surprised if the text of the TPP is not be disclosed once it is signed.

            • freedom 7.1.2.2.2.1
              30 July 2015 at 4:33 pm

              but wouldn’t it be nice to have that particular detail confirmed by those responsible for the negotiations?

              Some might even say it is the sort of information a Government should share with the people it serves.

              • Colonial Viper …
                30 July 2015 at 5:07 pm

                the masses shall be grateful for the drippings (or the promises of drippings) that are so generously given.

            • Kevin 7.1.2.2.2.2
              30 July 2015 at 9:10 pm

              Personally, I would rather that the future propects of my children do not rely on the level of surprise you feel after this deal is signed

            • travellerev 7.1.2.2.2.3
              31 July 2015 at 10:08 am

              Not for four years but that’s OK because our leaders would never do anything against our best interests. Ever!

  8. greywarshark 8
    30 July 2015 at 10:08 am

    This morning on Radionz Morning Report a Beef and Wool rep said that we would like to get the 38.5% tariff on Japanese beef imports down to perhaps 9% and that would give the sector about an extra $55 mill. This as I remember.
    http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/201764441

    But further there is a 5-Nations Beef grouping pressing for this. Japan will have to put limits on imports, so we are likely then to be competing against the beef giants in the group. We might be lucky to keep exporting the tonnage we do now.

    Some of the five – NZ, USA, Mexico, I think Canada, and possibly Britain. It seemed the English speaking ‘clique’ again.

    • greywarshark 8.1
      30 July 2015 at 11:49 am

      I suppose the other would be Australia, not Britain.

    • Wayne 8.2
      30 July 2015 at 12:12 pm

      greywarshark,

      Obviously economics is not your strong point. The size of the economy is not the key issue. It all depends on how competitive it is. New Zealand beef sales are competitive vis a vis United states exports, mostly because we have lower cost inputs, i.e. grass fed.

      So any reductions in tariffs will benefit our beef industry. And if Japan is reducing beef tariffs, so will the United States and Canada will have to reduce their tariffs on the same products.

      Another win for New Zealand.

      • greywarshark 8.2.1
        30 July 2015 at 12:27 pm

        Hi Wayne
        You sound like a chirpy chirpy cheep cheep. That’s my name for future soothsayers who trill every change as leading to a bright new future, usually at the end of a rainbow. And we know that in fact that is never found.

        You obviously don’t study your political economy deeply. There is always a way that a bigger economy can pull strings to get the best deal. Hence TPPA, with pressure brought to bear by the big powers. And the fact that NZ is as open as we are is because of our fear that we couldn’t mix it with the bigger economies to secure markets to sell our exports without opening up the ranchsliders even when the temperature is below freezing.

        And that lower cost input ie grass fed is a crock. You know that we have stopped being only grass fed in our bullrush to maximise the milk rush returns. There are all sorts of plans for lot feeding, and there is the reliance on imported feed from decimation of trees in other countries. Our ‘smart’ farmers have found that cost so much that they haven’t profited from overstocking their farms to the max using the imported-very-not-grass. The whole thing is a mess and you are trying to feed me imported economic garbage in selective doses. Take your BS and stuff it wherever.

        • Wayne 8.2.1.1
          30 July 2015 at 12:38 pm

          As I said, clearly economics in not your strong suit , which you have just now proved by your comments on the diary industry.

          New Zealand is a world force in diary because we are essentially the lowest cost producer. And we so because by and large grass is enough food food which is a direct result from relatively mild climate and plentiful rain. When coupled with very efficient stock management, we become the lowest cost producer.

          Anyway I will not make any further comments on this post.

          You are all irredeemably against free trade in any event.

          • freedom 8.2.1.1.1
            30 July 2015 at 1:00 pm

            “You are all irredeemably against free trade in any event.”
            “incredulous” springs to mind.

            Most folk here are likely to be entirely supportive of free trade if modern capitalism ever saw fit to attempt it.

          • Molly 8.2.1.1.2
            30 July 2015 at 3:57 pm

            Dairy debt trebled in the decade leading up to 2013. A lot of those lower production costs are going to increase just to service financial obligations.

            Fonterra is the third largest purchaser of PKE (Palm Kernel Expeller) in the world. The days of grass-fed dairy are long gone. It disappeared with overstocking that impacted on both our natural environment (in particular – waterways) and the amount of debt farmers took on in the misplaced hope that milk solid prices would remain high. (Not to mention the devastation this crop places on indigenous peoples and animals in other countries. Talk about leaving our cow shit everywhere).

            Calling it a “Trade Pacific Partnership Agreement” is a misnomer – deliberately leading people to believe it is a free-trade agreement. It should be called TSFSD – Taking Sovereignty from Sleepy Democracies. That at least would be honest. But honesty and clarity is not forthcoming.

            The benefit to NZ? An increase of 0.01% in GNP by 2025, and exposure to litigation in ISDS forums, and restriction on negotiation, asset ownership and environmental and society protection legislative changes.

            The ability of our own government to change legislation as is fit to meet the requirements, needs and priorities of it’s citizens is an expectation that most would have of a robust democracy.

            We continue to show that we know how to aid companies in making profits, but show little aptitude for showing how we protect people, society and our environment.

            Time for a bit of balance in that regard.

            • thatguynz 8.2.1.1.2.1
              30 July 2015 at 4:12 pm

              +1 spot on.

            • Wayne 8.2.1.1.2.2
              30 July 2015 at 4:48 pm

              An estimate of an increase of 0.01% in GNP will be wrong and will grossly pessimistic, just as the Treasury grossly underestimated the gains from the China FTA.

              I will trust my own judgment on the gains based on what I know occurred following WTO and the China FTA. So on that basis, there will be a probable net gain of 1% of GDP, or around $2 billion per year extra once the agreement is fully in force.

              I imagine there will be a 15 to 20 year phase in for agricultural tariff reductions. But the gains progressively start coming in as soon as the tariff reductions start. It is worth giving way on the implementation time frame to get the ultimate gain.

              • Colonial Viper …
                30 July 2015 at 5:01 pm

                Lose lots now for some promised gains starting in 15-20 years time?

                I gotta get some of what you are smoking, Wayne.

              • freedom …
                30 July 2015 at 5:46 pm

                Only you can answer why you can’t or won’t grasp the simple precept the TPPA the TISA & the TTIP are not the same as the generic FTA deals of the past, especially deals favoured and brokered by the WTO – who themselves have made numerous comments warning against the new deals’ risks to financial markets, their determined lack of transparency and the risk to sovereignty facing many of the smaller nations. Even an ex Director of the WTO has warned how all the benefits being negotiated appear to be flowing to the USA and the EU at the expense of developing nations. Even the Pope has criticized the deals.

                It seems that in your world, all the leaked documents, the academic statistics, the think tanks declaring their concerns, the newspapers calling for delays, the trade bodies asking for talks to halt, the growing groundswell of international concern shown by by private citizens and by politicians around the world, all of it is nothing but an ill-informed plot cooked up by a naive anti-capitalist rent-a-crowd.

                Since you have a certain amount of experience of military matters, perhaps this metaphor might offer some clarity.

                Archers used to be crucial military assets, before the invention of Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles.

                (the metaphor is a bit over the top perhaps, but so is the pitiful dogma defending the negotiations)

              • Molly …
                30 July 2015 at 8:31 pm

                “An estimate of an increase of 0.01% in GNP will be wrong and will grossly pessimistic, just as the Treasury grossly underestimated the gains from the China FTA.

                I will trust my own judgment on the gains based on what I know occurred following WTO and the China FTA. So on that basis, there will be a probable net gain of 1% of GDP, or around $2 billion per year extra once the agreement is fully in force. “

                vs.

                “The best-case scenario by the US Department of Agriculture, assuming Japan, the US and Canada removed all their tariffs, is a 0.01per cent increase in New Zealand’s GDP by 2025. Hardly ‘meaningful’.”

                Hardly a convincing argument Wayne.

                But I have the suspicion that a majority of our current “successful” people in politics and business have the capacity to act so forcefully and destructively exactly because they “… trust their own judgement..” despite evidence to the contrary. And in this current economic and political climate it works – as it results in self-enrichment.

                I look forward to the return of evidence based discussion, and dialogue in our media. At present it exists on platforms like this, but still continues to be derailed by some who score points for imaginary wins.

                It would be great if you had a more robust response rather than your personal judgement – which is actually more of a personal romantic notion than a judgement, given it’s future context based on little more than slick moves and promises.

                Recently read Daniel Dennett’s guide to critical dialogue:
                “How to compose a successful critical commentary:

                1. You should attempt to re-express your target’s position so clearly, vividly, and fairly that your target says, “Thanks, I wish I’d thought of putting it that way.
                2. You should list any points of agreement (especially if they are not matters of general or widespread agreement).
                3. You should mention anything you have learned from your target.
                4. Only then are you permitted to say so much as a word of rebuttal or criticism.”

                … with those in mind….

                1. You have an “imagination” that allows you to believe that the leaked documents are less informative than “your personal judgement” and that any increase will be good, and any negative is non-existent and not worth discussing.
                2. Damn. Struggling with this, the best I can do is that we both agree you trust your own judgement.
                3. I have learnt that you discuss things well on a superficial level, but go AWOL on specifics. There is a limit to discourse with you, but at least you give it a go.
                4. You do yourself a disservice, along with all NZers when you use your current status and past experience to give authority to your opinions, feelings and imagination which is demonstrably not linked to current evidence or known facts.

                You can do better than this, and NZers deserve better information and dialogue regardless of partisan affliliations.

            • maui 8.2.1.1.2.3
              30 July 2015 at 6:14 pm

              +1 Molly

          • thatguynz 8.2.1.1.3
            30 July 2015 at 3:59 pm

            No Wayne, as per normal you scurry off and disengage as soon as your orthodoxy is challenged. Somehow you self-justify that as a “win”..

          • Blue Horseshoe 8.2.1.1.4
            30 July 2015 at 4:41 pm

            Free Trade….

            Dishonest Liar!

            Keep peddling it dickhead

      • Ad 8.2.2
        30 July 2015 at 1:45 pm

        It will only be a win if the National government does what occurred with both the pip fruit (ENZA etc) and dairy industries (Fonterra), and requires NZ’s duopoly meat producers to produce and market together.

        If this government really is waking up to the risk of our rural economy, he actually needs to show some goddamn leadership.

        What’s his golf average again?

  9. freedom 9
    30 July 2015 at 10:10 am

    (repeat post from Breathless Children, )

    Can someone offer some clarity on the following question/s

    If the terms of the agreement are to be secret for a number of years after signing, how can our PM & co claim Parliament will get the chance to debate the agreement as soon as it is signed?

    Does the secrecy only apply to the draft papers and not the final negotiated texts that make up whatever they finally sign off on?

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO1503/S00326/secret-tppa-investment-chapter-released.htm

    “The TPP Investment Chapter, published today, is dated 20 January 2015. The document is classified and supposed to be kept secret for four years after the entry into force of the TPP agreement or, if no agreement is reached, for four years from the close of the negotiations.”
    (bold mine)

    • Ron 9.1
      30 July 2015 at 10:50 am

      Of course Parliament can debate the agreement they just won’t know what is in it. Nothing unusual about that, the majority of the government are happy to debate things they know nothing about. Look at the corrections minister last week.

      If the terms of the agreement are to be secret for a number of years after signing, how can our PM & co claim Parliament will get the chance to debate the agreement as soon as it is signed?

      • dukeofurl 9.1.1
        30 July 2015 at 11:57 am

        Things like patent extensions require changes to laws , so that part will have legislation.

        But the US Congress has to pass a law for it to go into effect in US. they cant amend parts so its yes or no.

  10. Clemgeopin 10
    30 July 2015 at 10:18 am

    Late last night, some commenters here and I had some discussions with one ‘John’ about TPPA. Here is the link if you are interested to read : http://thestandard.org.nz/giving-away-the-shop-for-nothing/#comment-1052086

    In one of my comments I suggested that “At the very least, this deal should be rejected unless BOTH the National and the Labour caucuses unanimously or overwhelmingly vote for accepting it after studying the all the terms of the deal and going through all the hooks and fine prints.”
    http://thestandard.org.nz/giving-away-the-shop-for-nothing/#comment-1052007

    The reason I suggested that the TPPA deal should not be agreed upon unless AT LEAST the two main political party caucuses of National (47%) + Labour (31%)=78% (or >67% of nation’s reps) unanimously or overwhelmingly agree to the deal is here.

    For a deal that has such long term serious economic, social and environmental consequence for the people and the country, an approval from only the ruling National party (47%) and its very tiny coalition parties, ACT (0.5%) & U.FUT(0%)=47.5% does not even represent a reasonable or a decent proportion of the people of the country.

    So, the PPTA deal needs the endorsement of at least 2/3 or 67% of the nation’s representatives from a mixture of political parties, Nats, Labour, Greens, NZF etc. or at least the approval from National and Labour.

    Even better would be to give a free conscience votes to all the MPs to decide what is best for the country. If the vote falls below 67%, reject the deal and go for slow and steady bilateral deals between different countries, thus preserving more of our sovereignty, independence, control and freedom too.

    I hope all MPs, including at least some National MPs and Dunne will act in a responsible, honest and patriotic way with integrity and good conscience.

    http://thestandard.org.nz/giving-away-the-shop-for-nothing/#comment-1052076

    • Galeandra 10.1
      30 July 2015 at 10:45 am

      The PPTA deal?
      Wow, a classy deal no doubt.

    • Olwyn 10.2
      30 July 2015 at 11:02 am

      I wholeheartedly agree Clemgeopin – if the leaked documents and so on are anything to go by, then what is at issue is tantamount to constitutional change, and should be treated accordingly.

    • Wayne 10.3
      30 July 2015 at 12:20 pm

      Clemgeopin

      Complete misunderstanding of our constitution, which I presume you probably know.

      National leads the government, so they get decide. The opposition does not; they after all lost.

      So no free vote, If Labour opposes, well thats their decision, but it won’t have any impact on National and its principal support parties ACT and UF. And if Peter Dunne votes against any enabling legislation, I reckon he will be resigning as a Minister.

      I appreciate that is a different rule to the Maori Party, but they are really only an optional part of the government. National does not count on them for much. But they do have to support the budget.

      • Clemgeopin 10.3.1
        30 July 2015 at 1:46 pm

        @Wayne

        Of course I understand that National are leading the government temporarily at the moment and can pass any legislation they like.

        What I am referring to and concerned about is that a monumental TPP decision that a single party may take will have long term consequences and repercussions for the country, the people and future governments who would legally and financially get locked into it. This is not like some simple normal laws that a future government can easily amend or change.

        That is why it would be fair and sensible for this government to proceed in a very serious issue like this by seeking the support of around 67% of the country’s representatives.

        I hope you see the importance, care and wisdom of that.

        I am not looking at it as an ideological or ego issue. I will be surprised if there aren’t any National party MP that will have the wisdom and courage to insist on either rejecting this detail-less secretive deal or insist on a better kind of voting procedure like I suggested.

        What is your objection to my suggestion apart from your take that National has the right to pass it. I know that.

    • Ad 10.4
      30 July 2015 at 1:48 pm

      You might want to check the Parliamentary votes on:
      – CER
      – China FTA
      – even joining the UN back in the day

      All whipped along party lines.

      Wayne’s point yesterday that the left can hardly argue against legitimacy after such a trouncing in the election.

      Everyone understood what National were for on trade, and it either didn’t matter enough or was positively supported.

      • Clemgeopin 10.4.1
        30 July 2015 at 4:55 pm

        “You might want to check the Parliamentary votes on:
        China FTA
        All whipped along party lines.”

        As far as I know, FTA, the bilateral free trade agreement organised by Labour , when put to vote was supported by the then leading opposition party, National.

        Please correct me if I am wrong.

      • Colonial Viper 10.4.2
        30 July 2015 at 5:17 pm

        Everyone understood what National were for on trade, and it either didn’t matter enough or was positively supported.

        Democracy and democratic dissent doesn’t pass away at the end of election night, however.

  11. Old Mickey 11
    30 July 2015 at 10:27 am

    The dairy chapters will make for interesting reading. With the late entry of Japan they had to agree to the agreed terms at that stage. At that stage, the concessions from Japan on dairy make the deal worth doing on its own. The Japanese market is highly protected and lucrative, and NZ has been nickled and dimed by the Australians in that market for decades. The devil in the final chapters will be the time lag to allow local markets to adjust, just like we saw in the NZ China FTA. It will be very exciting times if they can reach a deal.

    • Pascals bookie 11.1
      30 July 2015 at 11:02 am

      Gordon Campbell called a Canadian insider and got some numbers on dairy access to Japan:

      http://gordoncampbell.scoop.co.nz/2015/07/30/gordon-campbell-on-d-day-for-dairy-at-the-tpp/

      • Clemgeopin 11.1.1
        30 July 2015 at 11:10 am

        Thanks for that excellent link:
        “While New Zealand may feel flattered at being called “the Saudi Arabia of milk” it would be more accurate to regard us as the suicide bombers of free trade.” !

        • greywarshark 11.1.1.1
          30 July 2015 at 12:01 pm

          Just going along the line with the suicide bombers of free trade – very apt – I remembered that kamikaze means divine wind. Our divine wind is cow farts, or akshually belches, which bring their own damaging result through climate change on our planet.

          So we are eventually more damaging than the kamikaze, first we shoot ourselves in the foot then aim for the whole planet. That’s all in the future of course, and we will all be dead by then and leave it for the suffering humanity who follow us, except for a ‘fortunate’ but rather crazed few it will be our families, neighbours and our global brothers and sisters.
          edited

  12. Blue Horseshoe 12
    30 July 2015 at 10:35 am

    The intention was never to sign up to anything that would benefit the countries involved

    Surely people are beginning to understand what is at stake …..

    For those who have not worked it out yet…

    That would be your future well being and that of any and every family member you have currently or will have in future

    The power sitting behind such arrangements is astoundingly harmful to planet earth

  13. Stuart Munro 13
    30 July 2015 at 10:41 am

    It’s really stupid for New Zealand, a BSE free country, to bundle our trade access for beef to Japan with the US, which is not BSE free.

    Australia was smart enough to make its own deal – but Groser wasn’t. We can look forward to a similar level of performance on the TPPA – lost opportunities, delayed or notional benefits and upfront costs.

    • Clemgeopin 13.1
      30 July 2015 at 11:04 am

      @ Stuart Munro
      Can you explain your first sentence please? I am not sure what you mean or what the concern you have with such an arrangement.

      • greywarshark 13.1.1
        30 July 2015 at 12:13 pm

        @Clem
        He is talking about the possibility of being caught up in a serious and untreatable, I think. disease outbreak that can come in beef, primarily I think. It’s called (I looked up google and it’s not Bombay stock exchange).

        It’s Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) — commonly referred to as “mad cow disease” — is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) that affects cattle. BSE first was described in cattle in the United Kingdom (U.K.) in 1986
        http://www.bseinfo.org/bsedefinition.aspx

        I alluded to it in one of my comments today without any detail or source so am happy to have done my research this time.

      • Stuart Munro 13.1.2
        30 July 2015 at 2:18 pm

        Japan and Korea have sporadically banned US beef for failure to meet agreed BSE prevention protocols. Korea banned for bone and spinal matter, Japan banned for an animal which actually had fully developed BSE.

        BSE has a relatively long incubation process. (typically in excess of seven years) Rather than eradicating it from herds as European nations did, US corporations decided to ship younger animals on the premise that no detectable BSE would have developed. This premise proved to be wrong.

        Safety from BSE is a competitive advantage of southern hemisphere beef that astute trade ministers might be expected to exploit – if they were not dull instruments like Tim Groser.

    • ianmac 14.1
      30 July 2015 at 11:59 am

      Rather than “being John Key’s most embarrassing moment” it is more likely that it is all Labour’s fault and Key has been a brave soldier combatting the Labour negativity.
      (Of course avoiding the fact that Labour successfully negotiated a China Deal.)

    • freedom 14.2
      30 July 2015 at 12:07 pm

      ” embarrassing ”
      strange way to spell “treasonous”

  15. Tautoko Mangō Mata 15
    30 July 2015 at 12:59 pm

    Just to cheer you all up, these are the people that get to vote whether or not we ratify the TPPA, should it be signed by Tim Groser.
    The Current Cabinet Ministers:
    John Key, Bill English, Gerry Brownlee, Steven Joyce, Paula Bennett, Jonathan Coleman; Amy Adams, Chris Finlayson; Simon Bridges; Hekia Parata; Ann Tolley, Nick Smith, Murray McCully, Nathan Guy, Nikki Kaye, Tim Groser, Michael Woodhouse, Todd McClay, Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga, Maggie Barry.

    • vto 15.1
      30 July 2015 at 1:21 pm

      Fucking hell…

      there is no hope

    • greywarshark 15.2
      30 July 2015 at 1:22 pm

      Well hit me on the head and call me pisspot, I thought that all Parliament had a go at the TPPA ratification Tautoko. I would like to call you deluded. Can I? Or must I put up with that unsatisfactory comment you have just made as factual. Surely the Opposition count for something in this situation??

      • ianmac 15.2.1
        30 July 2015 at 1:32 pm

        The deal would be signed by Cabinet. Signed and sealed. Then it is tabled in the House for discussion or support. Even in no support at all, the Treaty stands.

        • Wayne 15.2.1.1
          30 July 2015 at 4:58 pm

          Actually it will almost certainly signed by Tim Groser on behalf of New Zealand. He will be doing so on the basis of Cabinet approving the deal.

          No doubt there will be a special debate in Parliament, but probably without a vote being taken.

          It will also be sent to the FADT Select Committee for consideration. They will have hearings, but ultimately this is procedural, rather than substantive The Select Committee has no real power to stop the TPP, the process is really for public engagement.

          However, some parts of TPP, particularly around copyright, patents and ISD will require legislation to implement. We will then see where the chips will fall.

          I suspect Labour will vote for some parts of the legislation but not others. Of course the Greens, NZF and the Maori Party, all being consistently against all free trade deals that New Zealand actually signs, will vote against.

          • Clemgeopin 15.2.1.1.1
            30 July 2015 at 10:51 pm

            Wayne, with all your inside knowledge, do you think –or do you know–if there are any National Mps that may be opposed to this TPP deal and have the courage to break rank and vote against (and may resign or become independent MPs?)

      • Tautoko Mangō Mata 15.2.2
        30 July 2015 at 3:28 pm

        Pisspot is what I will become if this gets signed!

        • greywarshark 15.2.2.1
          30 July 2015 at 8:31 pm

          Tautoko MM
          You can’t. I’ve already got intellectual copyright to it. Hah. But I can’t really manage a good laugh thinking of them over there with their long knives out. When Maui carved us up but we still had the land. Hawaii have a Maui myth too – is he similar to that of Aotearoa?

  16. James 16
    30 July 2015 at 1:33 pm

    “Surely the Opposition count for something in this situation??”

    Nope. Not even a little bit.

    Thats why we have elections.

    If the public trusted them to make the big decisions they would have voted them into power.

  17. JanM 17
    30 July 2015 at 2:10 pm

    http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.co.nz/2015/07/how-smart-is-tim-groser-will-we-end-up.html
    Here’s Chris Trotter’s perspective on it – interesting!

    • ianmac 17.1
      30 July 2015 at 4:26 pm

      Oh dear. I have a large bundle of entangled fishing line. So hard to find a way out of the mess as each thread contradicts the next and like the TPPA will take a long long time to understand.

  18. maui 18
    30 July 2015 at 3:08 pm

    A marker for the end of capitalism I hope, its growing more arrogant by the day. People will hit breaking point.

    • greywarshark 18.1
      30 July 2015 at 8:35 pm

      Radionz had a piece this morning on automated self realising robots being developed.
      I’m so interested I can’t bear to listen. But along with flying drones by the seat of your pants from across the country I can quite believe that those boneheads could use robots against people protesting.

  19. freedom 19
    30 July 2015 at 3:14 pm

    if the dairy sector is this concerned at this late stage, we must be in even more trouble than we thought
    http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/rural/280101/current-tpp-deal-%27unthinkable%27-for-dairy

  20. infused 20
    30 July 2015 at 4:32 pm

    Still betting it’s not going to be signed.

  21. Chris 21
    30 July 2015 at 4:53 pm

    Key isn’t an idiot. He isn’t going sign anything that destroy his legacy

    • Ad 21.1
      30 July 2015 at 5:12 pm

      What reasons has this government given us to trust them as you do?

    • maui 21.2
      30 July 2015 at 5:27 pm

      Yep, he’ll probably have an unpopular nationwide flag debate instead… after he’s signed it.

    • Colonial Viper 21.3
      30 July 2015 at 7:42 pm

      Key isn’t an idiot. He isn’t going sign anything that destroy his legacy

      Huh? By signing the TPPA John Key’s legacy with the 1%, the banksters, the trans-national corporates (who will be employing him shortly), and the elite of the USA, will be more than intact.

    • greywarshark 21.4
      30 July 2015 at 8:38 pm

      Chris
      Two contestable comments. Detestable too.

    • keyman 21.5
      31 July 2015 at 4:05 am

      your an idiot fucken key will be out of here job done you fukwit!

  22. millsy 22
    30 July 2015 at 5:18 pm

    Wayne – do you think that TPPA will lead to water privtisation?

  23. joe90 23
    30 July 2015 at 7:21 pm

    Fucking clowns.

    Duncan GarnerVerified account
    ‏@Garner_Live

    BREAKING: Andrew Hoggard from Fed Farmers says he’s hearing TPP won’t mean increased access for our dairy farmers into U.S, Japan, Canada.

    https://twitter.com/Garner_Live/status/626623729569693696

    http://www.radiolive.co.nz/AUDIO-Why-the-TPP-has-fallen-over-for-New-Zealand-dairy-farmers/tabid/506/articleID/92791/Default.aspx

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