What will 2011 bring?

122 comments on “What will 2011 bring? ”

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1. Fisiani 1

   31 December 2010 at 11:04 am

   I pick a November election coming soon after the All Blacks win the World Cup.
   The incoming National government will offer limited share options in state enterprises to increase the stock exchange and offer a safe place for investors to invest and boost the NZ economy.
   Increased helping beneficieries to get into employment to strengthen them and their children .
   A budget that pumps $1,100,000,000 into health and education and overseas aid. every other department is frozen and nothing like the 25% cuts in the UK
   More increasingly desperate calls for Goff to go but no one offering to be a sacrificial lamb. Labour to poll 29% and Goff to stand down that night. Massive infighting for his job.
   No more ACT problems and Rodney Hide to win Epsom.
   No new political parties.
   NZ First polling less than 2008 and not getting into parliament
   The economy to be picking up and growing and people looking forwards with confidence.
   • lprent 1.1

     31 December 2010 at 11:19 am

     Rodney Hide won’t win Epsom…

     You’d have to not be an aucklander to think that – his imposition of a gerrymandered super shitty on us enures that he is the walking dead, and that goes across the political spectrum.

     The rest of your ideas are in your usual same fantasy land.
     • higherstandard 1.1.1

       31 December 2010 at 11:26 am

       Hide won’t win Epsom – if he had any sense (…. haw haw) ACT would put up a candidate that the Epsom electorate could stomach and then get into parliament on her/his coat tails.

       How about Winston… that would truly be high farce.
       • lprent 1.1.1.1

         31 December 2010 at 11:39 am

         I’d pay to see Hide vs Winston debates in Epsom.

         But who have Act got who’d be a credible candidate in that electorate. Last time I looked Boscowean tends to explode or get lamingtons in debates. I think that goading him would be the favoured sport of opponents and audiences. The private would probably be a credible candidate for that electorate, but she is on the outer.

         Incidentally it has been pretty amazing how many woman have told me that they admire her for standing up to the bully and the smearing. Across the political spectrum as well which is unusual (the contrast with the national woman MP’s is particularly striking) Just at present I think she could pull some pretty significiant vote in an electorate.

         Who else?
         • burt 1.1.1.1.1

           31 December 2010 at 12:08 pm

           I’d pay to see Hide vs Winston debates in Epsom.

           But who have Act got who’d be a credible candidate in that electorate.

           Are you saying Winston is credible ? Do you like it when political parties use secret trusts and don’t declare their big business backers and do you call that kind of behaviour credible ?
           • Ari 1.1.1.1.1.1

             31 December 2010 at 1:15 pm

             No, which is why none of us vote national. 😉
         • felix 1.1.1.1.2

           31 December 2010 at 4:37 pm

           I’m sure Rodney would sell you a ticket Lynn.
         • Shazzadude 1.1.1.1.3

           8 January 2011 at 11:16 pm

           As much as I want Hide and ACT to disappear from the face of the earth, I think Hide is going to hold it. ACT will probably still get over 1.25% of the vote, which instantly increases the value of Hide in the seat for the right.

           Key will want to get a majority of seats with ACT, and for this reason even just one additional seat for the right could be enough for him. We could even see an accommodation of Hide from Key. I think another alternative that no-one seems to be picking up on is for Peter Dunne to capture some of the soft vote. He did it with great success in 2002, and I think he can easily retain his electorate simply by making it clear to the conservative voters in his electorates that a vote for Shanks could end up being a vote for Chauvel.

           Your prediction about Mark and Wairarapa is interesting, and it’s one I’ve speculated on myself. Ron Mark will need to be of the belief that New Zealand First will definitely be back, given he already has interests as the CEO of FOMA and the mayoralty of Carterton. I do think it’s a seat that’s winnable for him, the Wairarapa has a strong conservative element, as evident by the almost 6,000 votes Merepeka Raukawa-Tait picked up as a Christian Coalition candidate in 1999, and Mark is a hometown hero, the conservative option and has the mayoralty of Carterton.
   • Eddie 1.2

     31 December 2010 at 11:26 am

     “offer limited share options in state enterprises to increase the stock exchange and offer a safe place for investors to invest and boost the NZ economy”

     1) why is ‘increasing the stockmarket’ a good thing in and of itself?
     2) don’t New Zealanders already own the SOEs, which they have invested in via their taxes? If New Zealanders give up part of their wonership of the SOEs in return for some cash to the government, who will then own them?
     3) how will partial privatisation boost the economy?

     all the rest is highly disputable but this “The economy to be picking up and growing and people looking forwards with confidence.” is just laughable. Are you watching the oil price or not?
     • killinginthenameof 1.2.1

       1 January 2011 at 12:16 pm

       It will help the economy by rewarding the rich more than it fucks the poor, therefore increasing GDP, (in much the same way a govt appointed window smasher could increase GDP)
   • Draco T Bastard 1.3

     31 December 2010 at 1:06 pm

     The incoming National government will offer limited share options in state enterprises to increase the stock exchange and offer a safe place for investors to invest and boost the NZ economy.

     And here’s me thinking that the whole idea of “investing” was to take a risk and not to have government guaranteed returns.

     Of course, even the government guaranteed returns aren’t what NACT are after. What they’re after is the sell-off of NZs assets to themselves and their rich mates so that they can steal even more from hard working (which doesn’t include them) NZers.
     • Nick C 1.3.1

       31 December 2010 at 1:41 pm

       Yeah i’m sure thats it Draco..
   • mcflock 1.4

     31 December 2010 at 3:08 pm

     Of course, Fisi’s fantasy rests entirely on the AB winning the cup. If they don’t you can probably knock at least 10% off the nats right there.
   • Vicky32 1.5

     1 January 2011 at 6:30 pm

     New Year booze, Fizzy? 😀
     Starting with the first fantasy, the ABs winning, and getting more and more fantastic! You ought write heroic fantasy or sf…
     Deb
2. travellerev 2

   31 December 2010 at 11:37 am

   Here’s to all of you at the Standard!!

   May you flourish in the new year and have many fiery discussions on your blog as the election nears.
   And thank you from me for allowing me to have a platform for my (don’t I know it ) controversial points of view.

   Here’s is a little video dedicated to all of us: Think different

   Captcha: bar. LOL. Yep that’s were you’ll probably find me this weekend sometime.
   • travellerev 2.1

     31 December 2010 at 4:38 pm

     Brilliant! once again think different
     • LynW 2.1.1

       1 January 2011 at 8:28 am

       Thanks for that…a nice positive clip to begin the New Year on! I too wish to thank all the contributors at the Standard….I discovered this site via Chris Trotter’s Bowalley Road blog not long after the last election.I had by chance picked up his book ‘No left Turn’ in a New Year sale, found what I read very inspiring so goggle searched his name. I was oblivious to the blog communication network until then! The election results shocked me into action and a need for more information about people and politics. Reading your blogs has been very therapeutic as I have struggled to make sense of the current political climate in NZ. So keep your thoughts, ideas and views flowing…they are encouraging to others! They do make a difference!
3. burt 3

   31 December 2010 at 12:01 pm

   A black budget: Just like the last time they were in power the tories will exacerbate the recession by cutting public spending and revenue.

   Just like in 1990 after a Labour govt lasting more than 1 term wrecked havoc on the economy and it had to be rescued by harsh medicine…. Still the lovers of self serving politicians will fail to see the connection between socialism and popularist tax and spend policies rooting the economy and vote for more welfare and increased taxation in a policies of envy orgy or destruction.
   • mcflock 3.1

     31 December 2010 at 3:05 pm

     Interesting.

     It seemed to me that the National “medicine” was just a stronger dose of the same poison.
   • felix 3.2

     31 December 2010 at 3:38 pm

     Jeez, slow down burt. Take a moment to wipe the drool from your chin and read that comment back to yourself.

     Fucking gibberish.
     • Bored 3.2.1

       31 December 2010 at 4:05 pm

       More fucking gibberish (this time from the left)…”where is our fekkin Cycleway?” Fat bloody chance of that being delivered in 2011.
4. burt 4

   31 December 2010 at 12:03 pm

   Irishbill

   Oh, but good luck courting Winston Peters to relive the great days of secret trusts and tax cuts for undeclared donors.
5. just saying 5

   31 December 2010 at 12:29 pm

   Goff is a national joke, not to mention the very embodiment of unapologetic neoliberalism and “meritocratic” privilege and entitlement. An establishment man who can’t oppose government policies because he pretty much agrees with them, and a man so pathologically out of touch that he thinks talking of “having a few beers with Sir Bob Jones” helps connect him to his ‘base’.
   God help us, an authoritarian to boot.

   The right will endlessly leap upon discussions about bumping Goff off because of the opportunties such discussions provide send Labour up as ridiculous and gutless, as well as irrelevant. It’s not a right-wing conspiracy to set Labour up to make a mistake at the eleventh hour. They really don’t care if he’s deposed or not, but talk about it? – the more the better as far as the right is concerned.
   • Zaphod Beeblebrox 5.1

     31 December 2010 at 3:24 pm

     I disagree totally. He was an excellent foreign minister and a pretty good trade minister. Just because has a higher level of literacy and coherency than Old Smiley does not mean he cannot be PM. I also look at Cunliffe, King and Parker all excellent ministers who would be more than capable if they got a chance again.

     You obviously haven’t seen your bufoonish PM cracking his pathetic cheap cracks in question time much.
     • just saying 5.1.1

       31 December 2010 at 3:40 pm

       Quote:”You obviously haven’t seen your bufoonish PM cracking his pathetic cheap cracks in question time much”

       My buffoonish PM?

       My objections to Goff come from the left not the right. “A higher level of literacy” is not enough. The left deserves better than not quite as bad as National.
       • Zaphod Beeblebrox 5.1.1.1

         31 December 2010 at 3:50 pm

         Sorry there- we all share the embarassment that occurs when he opens his mouth and does things ike inventing a whole new race of people (Afganistanians???).

         Sure Phil is a little too conservative my liking too- but don’t think I’d go as far as calling him an embarassment.
6. dave brown 6

   31 December 2010 at 12:35 pm

   Pathetic analysis. You accept that Labour is only good for mid-30s when Labour’s natural working class constituency is the big numerial majority in NZ. And what’s more that majority you predict will continue to suffer from NACT attacks in 011.
   I take the opposite view. Labour will lose badly if it continues to try to deny its working class roots and makes like its the party of a classless consensus. The lessons of recent elections overseas is that the left of Social Democracy is reviving under pressure from workers suffering massive austerity.
   In NZ the right wing has declared class war and Labour under Goff is still blithely acting as if its business as usual. The return of Winston Peters is a throw back to the worst of Labour, economic nationalism which buries liberal state intervention in NZ settler racism.
   Look for a lively left of labour challenge if Labour continues to sleepwalk its way to defeat.
   • Colonial Viper 6.1

     31 December 2010 at 12:41 pm

     Problem is that a lot of workers in their 20’s and 30’s, on $40K-$50K p.a., don’t see themselves as workers any more. They do not see themselves as generating economic value through their labour (brains and brawn).

     Instead they regard themselves as supervisors, managers, aspirational professionals, etc, and that their political home should be John Key.

     In other words: the serfs have been fooled into thinking that they are the masters, and as masters they naturally support the politics which actually materially hurts them.
     • Draco T Bastard 6.1.1

       31 December 2010 at 1:14 pm

       In other words: the serfs have been fooled into thinking that they are the masters, and as masters they naturally support the politics which actually materially hurts them.

       QFT&E

       It really is amazing the number of people in the working class who vote for the people most antithetical to them.
   • Zaphod Beeblebrox 6.2

     31 December 2010 at 3:17 pm

     Most of Labour’s working class constituency either don’t understand or care about politics. Most of them don’t vote either. Labour know that-look at whom their policies are directed.
7. Dean Reynolds 7

   31 December 2010 at 12:55 pm

   Hey Fisi, how often do you visit planet earth?
8. randal 8

   31 December 2010 at 1:55 pm

   cap: grateful.
   yes indeedy.
   2011 is the bringer of change.
   things aren’t going to be the same anymore.
   all the old stuff is going out the window.
   not like the hippies who could only join the system there is now going to be, to use an old phrase a new paradigm.
   what it will be no one can exactly say but you gotta be ready to catch the wave.
9. hobbit 9

   31 December 2010 at 1:58 pm

   >>> “More calls for Goff to go from vested interests”

   Nah – Leave him there – He’s a great asset to the Nats.

   Next year I think we’ll see:

   Labour lose the election, with Goff standing down a while after, with the
   far-left wing of the party struggling for control, which they’ll probably get,
   Labour will turn away from it’s center wing roots, and swing to the left,
   handing votes to that nice Mr Key as they go..

   People will leave ACC in droves, which will be a very bad look for the left,
   given their support for a state monopoly.

   Rodney will take Epsom, but with a reduced majority.

   Len will spend, spend, spend in Auckland, sealing his fate with the working class.

   Greens will probably get in, keeping the rest if us amused.

   ACT will get in, with people moving from National to ACT due to Labour-lite Key.
   • Colonial Viper 9.1

     31 December 2010 at 2:07 pm

     Right Wing Fantasy Porn alert lol what is that mess on the garage floor
     • killinginthenameof 9.1.1

       1 January 2011 at 12:28 pm

       Clean up in isle 9!
10. tsmithfield 10

    31 December 2010 at 3:13 pm

    Here is my prediction.

    NZ First will look like they are getting close to 5%. Key will reiterate his previous policy of not dealing with NZ First. Labour will be desperate, and will be willing to sell their soul to NZ First for the sake of power.

    The electorate will be faced with the alternatives of clean coalition arrangement the punters are familiar with compared with an abomination of a mish-mash involving Labour, Greens, NZ First, and the Maori Party. Given the dramas of the previous government with respect to this possible monster, the voters will swing to National in droves. Also, NZ First will fail to meet the 5% threshold due to the horror of voters.
    • felix 10.1

      31 December 2010 at 3:49 pm

      “Key will reiterate his previous policy of not dealing with NZ First”

      You mean he’ll go back on his current stance? Shock I am.

      “The electorate will be faced with the alternatives of clean coalition arrangement the punters are familiar with compared with an abomination of a mish-mash involving Labour, Greens, NZ First, and the Maori Party. ”

      Riiiiight. You guys trotted this bs out last time and we ended up with the 5-headed monster of the Nats, ACT, maori Party and United Future.

      Oh and the MoU with the Greens would’ve made it a 7-headed monster if that hadn’t ended up such an abortion.

      Bottom line: anything Key says before an election doesn’t count, just like none of it counted last time.
    • Zaphod Beeblebrox 10.2

      31 December 2010 at 3:53 pm

      Clean coalition = Nat/MP/ACT. LOL.
      • felix 10.2.1

        31 December 2010 at 4:27 pm

        + UF lol again
      • tsmithfield 10.2.2

        31 December 2010 at 4:27 pm

        Felix: “You mean he’ll go back on his current stance? Shock I am.”

        I was not aware that Key has said he will work with Peters. Have you got a quote for that?

        Felix “Riiiiight. You guys trotted this bs out last time and we ended up with the 5-headed monster of the Nats, ACT, maori Party and United Future.”

        Ummm… is counting not your best skill, Felix? Did you mean four headed?

        Sure, the National grouping is “multifaceted” as well. However, a major difference is that Key has demonstrated considerable skill in bringing together widely disparate views into a coherent whole. On the other hand, Goff has enough trouble trying to keep factions in his own party under control yet alone crazies from other fringe parties as well. I think that is what will scare voters more than anything else.
        • felix 10.2.2.1

          31 December 2010 at 5:40 pm

          No cockhole I meant 5 heads. Think about it. If you can.

          And yep, Key has gone back on the whole never-working-with-Peters bit. You can find the quotes yourself though, I’m not paid to run around after sycophants.

          To be clear, it was never a serious number from Key. He sang it before the election along with such hits as “I won’t raise GST” and “Capping, not cutting”.
          • tsmithfield 10.2.2.1.1

            31 December 2010 at 5:46 pm

            Felix “No cockhole I meant 5 heads. Think about it. If you can.”

            Have already thought about it. You are the moron.

            If you meant the Maori Party should be considered “two heads” because it has two leaders, then you should have named leaders, not parties. The fact you named parties as “heads” means there can only logically be four “heads”.

            Felix “And yep, Key has gone back on the whole never-working-with-Peters bit. You can find the quotes yourself though, I’m not paid to run around after sycophants.”

            Right. No quotes. Thought as much. You made the assertion. Its up to you to prove it, not me. Point me to a quote where Key has emphatically said he will work with Peters this time around. You made the claim. I think moderators would insist that you prove it.
            • Lanthanide 10.2.2.1.1.1

              1 January 2011 at 4:42 pm

              Felix is right, Key said a few months ago that anything goes with Winston. Again I’m not going to bother finding the quotes for you, though.

              captcha: quoting
              • Colonial Viper …

                1 January 2011 at 4:53 pm

                http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10692441

                Before the last election Mr Key ruled out forming a support arrangement with Mr Peters’ party. He hasn’t repeated that stance – yet.

                “It’s very hard to take Winston Peters seriously… I will worry about it if he decides to throw his hat in the ring, I will make the call then.“
                • tsmithfield …

                  1 January 2011 at 6:12 pm

                  Yeah. Just found the same link myself.

                  Key hasn’t made any decision to work with Peters next time around, as I thought. Clearly Felix/Lanthanide are wrong. Neither confirming nor denying does not equate to confirming. So positive affirmations in that respect from both Felix and Lanthanide are wrong.

                  So I was completely justified in asking for a link.
              • tsmithfield …

                1 January 2011 at 5:33 pm

                Don’t think so. He may have been non-commital about it either way. But I don’t recall him ever saying its all back on again.
                • felix …

                  3 January 2011 at 3:59 pm

                  Please put the goalposts back where you found them, timmeh.

                  His current stance is not what you said it was: it’s what Lanth and I said it is, as CV so kindly and patiently showed you.
        • felix 10.2.2.2

          31 December 2010 at 5:43 pm

          Fuck you’re a thick cunt tkellisnorrisharrissmithfeild. Nat ACT maori UF = 5 heads.

          And yep, Key has gone back on the whole never-working-with-Peters bit. You can get the quotes yourself though, I’m not paid to run around after dim-witted sycophants.

          To be clear, it was never a serious number from Key. He sang it before the election along with such hits as “I won’t raise GST” and “Capping, not cutting”.

          Remember those, cockhole?
          • tsmithfield 10.2.2.2.1

            31 December 2010 at 5:51 pm

            See reply above. You’re making yourself more of an idiot the more you repeat nonsense.
            • tsmithfield 10.2.2.2.1.1

              31 December 2010 at 6:11 pm

              BTW, I think its fairly obvious to anyone reading this exchange who the “cockhole” and “thick cunt” actually is.
              • felix …

                3 January 2011 at 4:30 pm

                I totally agree.
            • felix 10.2.2.2.1.2

              3 January 2011 at 3:53 pm

              Hey Tim,

              “Key hasn’t made any decision to work with Peters next time around, as I thought. Clearly Felix/Lanthanide are wrong. Neither confirming nor denying does not equate to confirming. So positive affirmations in that respect from both Felix and Lanthanide are wrong.”

              I never said he made a decision. I said you were wrong to say his current stance was that he had ruled out working with Winston.

              And you were. And you still are.

              “The fact you named parties as “heads” means there can only logically be four “heads”.”

              I know you’re a bit slow Tim, but I thought that was an obvious reference to the phrases “5-headed monster” and even “7-headed monster” that you and your buddies were throwing around before the last election. I’m using the same counting system.

              Good for the goose, timmeh. Cockhole.
          • Bored 10.2.2.2.2

            31 December 2010 at 8:02 pm

            Look here Felix, cant have you cracking up at the end of the year, at the behest of somebody you describe accurately if with somewhat nasty language. Pull your horns in, charity please or the SPCA will be after you. Happy New Year.
11. Robert Atack 11

    31 December 2010 at 3:26 pm

    With the shit storm of peak oil guaranteed to hit within the next 3 years Labour will not want to win in 2011
    They will keep Geoff as leader to assure they don’t have a chance.
    The voters are treated like mushrooms, the Greed Party will attract more of the labour vote, as they will have no one else to vote for.
    Marshal law 2012?
    Rioting and blood on the streets, I hope
    National will make Kiwi Saver compulsory, until the blood starts flowing anyway, then all bets are off.
    We could be looking at a Cuban crises, with 80% of ‘our’ imported oil not arriving.
    Get ready to be hungry, get ready to protect your family … the cops will not be able to.
    Start a neighborhood watch group, learn who has the guns, or better still get one yourself and stock up on ammo. You will only need a semi auto .22 ($600.00 at the most)

    Use the neighborhood watch group to rally around people who might have foreclosures on their homes, make sure the banks/cops do not kick people on to the streets, the govt will not be able to help, maybe buy a tent, stock up on food with at least 3 months supply of staples.
    We are on our own, if you are unfortunate to have children it is your responsability to prepare …. ops that is a word people don’t like to use.
    • Robert Atack 11.1

      31 December 2010 at 3:45 pm

      Also prepare for home invasions, place hidden weapons at easy reach around the house, and be ready to kill some bastard if they come a knocking, squirty bottles full of ammonia are a good idea, who is going to worry if they see you coming at them with a bottle of spray and wipe … but a squirt in the eyes then kick in the groin should slow any home invader. turn your bathroom into a panic room, with solid bars on the inside of the door, and a phone, don’t ring the cops ring the armed neighborhood watch group.
      • Colonial Viper 11.1.1

        31 December 2010 at 3:49 pm

        Dude, chill, crack open a beer, and ponder on the marvels of life and the kindness of your fellow man. For a day at least.
        • Robert Atack 11.1.1.1

          31 December 2010 at 3:55 pm

          I will CV .. but I will still have a couple of machetes at hand 😉
        • Colonial Viper 11.1.1.2

          31 December 2010 at 3:59 pm

          Well, you’d be mad not to 😎
    • tsmithfield 11.2

      31 December 2010 at 5:12 pm

      Robert “With the shit storm of peak oil guaranteed to hit within the next 3 years…”

      I wouldn’t get too worried about peak oil anytime soon.
      • Colonial Viper 11.2.1

        31 December 2010 at 5:28 pm

        You missed the point ts. There is certainly not going to be any overall shortage of oil any time soon.

        Just a shortage of oil priced under US$200/barrel. And a shortage of petrol priced under $4/L.

        $260 to fill up a tank appeal to anyone here? That commute to downtown Auckland costing $30 each way, how does that sound to you?
        • Robert Atack 11.2.1.1

          31 December 2010 at 5:50 pm

          CV I think we will be rationing soon after around $2.50/L, I would happily pay $4.00 though.

          A friend of mine spent about 4 – 6 hours over 2 days in the beehive with a high up MP … several years ago, explaining peak oil, the guy ‘got it’ one of his first comments was “We will have to introduce martial law to disarm the gangs”
          As we have seen in Italy, Greece, and the UK people do not like being made to live within the country’s means, we are not passive Cubans we are me mes. Understanding there isn’t a perpetual free lunch will see a lot of people struggling to get to grips with reality.

          PS It wouldn’t surprise me if it went down to $1.80/L again … as the global ecconomy hits the glass ceiling?
        • Zaphod Beeblebrox 11.2.1.2

          31 December 2010 at 6:02 pm

          Been to Europe recently CV? They seem to manage ok paying those prices.
          • Colonial Viper 11.2.1.2.1

            31 December 2010 at 6:31 pm

            With plenty of public transport options, good minimum wages and most cars on the market available with fuel efficient 1.4L, 1.6L or 1.8L engines – no probs.

            Again $260 to fill up a tank – that won’t pose a real problem for about 10% of our population. Everyone else? Thats the same money needed to feed a family of four for a week as is needed to feed a car.
          • Carol 11.2.1.2.2

            31 December 2010 at 6:39 pm

            The price of fuel doesn’t only impact on filling cars. In Britain people are dying because they can’t aford to heat their homes:

            http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/dec/27/energy-companies-fuel-poverty

            Although we usually have one of the smallest differences between winter and summer temperatures at these latitudes, we have one of the highest levels of excess winter deaths. Roughly twice as many people, per capita, die here than in Scandinavia. Even Siberia has lower levels than we do. Between 25,000 and 30,000 people a year are hastened to the grave by the cold here – this winter it could be much worse.

            Why? Inequality. We have an economic elite untouched by the ills afflicting other people. It survives all changes of government. Its need for profit outweighs other people’s need for survival. Here’s how our brutal system operates.

            Fuel poverty is defined as having to spend 10% or more of your income on keeping your home at a decent temperature. Between 2003 and 2008 (the latest available figures) the number of households in fuel poverty here rose from 2m to 4.5m. That’s not people; that’s households: this blight now afflicts 18% of the UK’s population.
        • tsmithfield 11.2.1.3

          31 December 2010 at 6:45 pm

          I don’t think oil will get to $200 within the next 5 years. Maybe within 10 years as a consequence of natural inflation. I subscribe to the thesis that as prices get too high there will be an automatic correction due to the resulting economic slow down. Also, as the article I linked to pointed out, the US has enormous supplies of gas now which I am sure they will use as an alternative for oil as the price of oil goes up.

          Then again, we could always do that $5000 dollar wager mentioned in the article I linked to…
          • Colonial Viper 11.2.1.3.1

            31 December 2010 at 7:04 pm

            In that case I suggest a wager of NZ$500 to go to a major NZ charity of the winner’s choice tsmithfield. Specifically, I wager you that NYMEX Crude will break US$200 per barrel before the end of 2015. Offer good for 48 hours from now 😀
            • tsmithfield 11.2.1.3.1.1

              31 December 2010 at 7:15 pm

              I’d be in if you are keen. You might want to think about it first, though. Here is my rationale for not within five years. The previous recession occurred just after oil reached $140. It crashed at that point. It has farted around for several years now and is only now pushing $90 again (it will undoubtably pull back in January and February which are the seasonally low points for oil).

              I don’t think many would argue that the world is in nowhere near as strong financial position as it was before the last crash, so it might take less than $140 to induce another one. If that is the case, oil will crash back down sometime in the next several years and take a few more years to push up to a similar level again. Plus a lot of alternatives coming on stream in the meantime, especially gas in the US which will have a huge impact since the US is such a large energy consumer.

              Come back to me and let me know if you are still on.
              • tsmithfield …

                31 December 2010 at 7:26 pm

                I should hedge my position slightly, as oil can be subject to sudden brief spikes for various reasons unrelated to underlying demand constraints. I think we both are thinking in terms of a sustained rise in oil. Therefore, I propose the wager would be $200 US dollars exceeded for a back to back period of three months within that time frame.
                • Zaphod Beeblebrox …

                  31 December 2010 at 8:06 pm

                  Ha ha nice get out of jail clause there.

                  Still think your money is not that safe TS- sure only the rich countries will be able to afford high levels of car use/owership but you will also likely see countries in Africa an South America undergoing large levels of economic growth on the back of high commodity prices over the next decade. This will help manufacturers in India, China and Europe who can supply them with consumables. The next great consumer boom.

                  In NZ we will probably be catching the train, riding our bikes to work and living a lot closer to our workplaces than at present.
                  • tsmithfield …

                    31 December 2010 at 11:25 pm

                    I would probably go a bit lower than two hundy for the three month period. Say over 190 for three months and touching $200 during that time. I just want to avoid something like a middle east issue causing a brief spike in prices as that is not really related to the long-term demand situ we have been discussing.
                • Colonial Viper …

                  1 January 2011 at 11:33 am

                  OK let me check through the historical charts and see what it looks like: my feeling is that wagering on a 3 month sustained price above $200/barrel sorta kills my chances. That’s because when high volatility price spikes hit and citizens start squeeling, OPEC usually temporarily boosts output and/or governments release their strategic reserves, which immediately causes a price dip.

                  e.g. a situation where oil keeps fluctuating between $220 and $190/barrel means that I won’t be able to win a 3 month duration wager.

                  So I’ll counterpropose a wager on 10 continuous trading days over $200/barrel (but I won’t do 3 months).
                  • tsmithfield …

                    1 January 2011 at 12:22 pm

                    How about a month? I would be prepared to go to minimum $190 continuous over the period but touching $200 during that period.
                    • Colonial Viper …

                      1 January 2011 at 1:08 pm

                      Ahhhh the fine art of arbitrage.

                      We may actually have rendered this wager a moot point now. What do you think?

                      It seems that you believe that oil is fairly likely to go over $200/barrel for short periods of time within the next few years, but probably not be able to sustain that high price level for a month or several months continuously.

                      I on the other hand see it as a sure thing that oil is going to spike up over $200/barrel (and I don’t think that it will take 5 years to do so) but hesitate to bet that it is going to stay at that very high level for a month or several months on end – I think it will be volatile and bounce around a lot.

                      So it seems that the difference between our positions is not around whether or not oil is going to scramble upwards to $200/barrel and beyond – we seem to both see that as a distinct possibility, but how volatile and sustained the price will be when it occurs.

                      Yes its still a difference in positions/emphasis, but to my mind not a huge one.
                    • tsmithfield …

                      1 January 2011 at 1:20 pm

                      I can’t rule out any possibility so far as oil spikes go. For instance, if Israel put up a imminent and believable threat to nuke Iran, then I imagine oil would spike quite vigorously. If it happened to be at a time when oil was say $140 already, then I could see it spiking quite a bit higher, certainly while the threat was in play. This is not to say I believe it would actually reach $200 on basic demand principles, though. I think the solution I have proposed is reasonable as it doesn’t actually require oil to maintain over $200 but does require that the price has increased substantially on a long term supply/demand basis enough to be consistently over $190. If you are correct, then I would expect that the slope of the graph would keep oil above $190 for quite awhile.
                    • RedLogix …

                      1 January 2011 at 2:39 pm

                      Point being you are both more or less right. The supply and demand curves for oil both have remarkably steep regions at each end.

                      Oil has a very steep region at the upper end because you simply cannot pump oil out of the ground past a certain geological limit. No matter how high the price goes it is unlikely that we will ever pump oil at more than about 90MB/Day.

                      Equally the demand curve has a steep region near the lower end because no matter how high the price goes, there will always be a certain minimum demand for oil to run the basics of modern civilisation as we currently know it.

                      According to basic economic texts….and I have caveats around this… the market price lies on the intersection point of the two curves. When the interesection moves to lie on the steep part of either or both curves, small changes in either supply or demand result in very dramatic changes in price.

                      So far what we have seen is that when the price spikes, there is quite substantial suppression on the demand side… dropping the price. Which tells us that the demand curve is probably more elastic than the supply curve…. or at least in the region we are currently in.

                      The core problem however is this; each year underlying global demand is growing 3-4% while supply is not. Sooner or later … probably sooner … we will be forced into the region of the demand curve which is a lot steeper. That is the one thing we know for certain.

                      The exact timing of this is hard to predict because we haven’t been in this place before and I’m not aware of any solid research into the exact shape of these curves. Worse, this quasi-equilibrium analysis doesn’t account for the the dynamics of the supply and demand market for oil; something we are even less able to predict soundly.
            • Robert Atack 11.2.1.3.1.2

              31 December 2010 at 7:30 pm

              CV
              I bet a work mate petrol would be $2.00/L by Christmas …. I lost $50.00 back in 2001.
              Can I be the charity?
              The NYMEX may not exist in 2015? or the $
              Most of ‘us’ have had egg on our faces over peak oil predictions, except maybe Colin Campbell who has stuck with 2015 (ish) from at least 1999, as to when things would turn tits up, and he ‘predicted’ the undulating plateau, which we may be just leaving… but I think you know all this shit.
              I said on radio “Watch out after the elections” … well Bush got back in and nothing happened 🙂
              We are constantly amazed how resilient the system is, even though we are on 3 wheels now, we are still maintaining balance .. unless you are living under a bridge in the USA dying of cancer or some such. $300 million a week, how much longer can this con go on for?
              • Colonial Viper …

                1 January 2011 at 11:38 am

                Can I be the charity?

                And here I was thinking that *I* should be the charity lol.

                Yes agree with you, the people who do the forecasting know shit. Usually they are quite good at picking the gradual trends, but I could do that with a bit of graph paper and a slide rule.

                But where they almost always get it 100% wrong is around the sudden discontinuities. And it is those huge sudden step changes which are the events most consequential to the resilience of human and societal systems.

                In other words, “experts” are relatively great at forecasting inconsequential changes, but typically useless at forecasting the changes of high consequence.
          • Eddie 11.2.1.3.2

            1 January 2011 at 3:39 pm

            “I don’t think oil will get to $200 within the next 5 years”

            the world has already proven that it can’t afford oil in the $100-$150 a barrel range – it causes global recession. So, no, I don’t think that we’ll see oil hitting $200 a barrel after-inflation, at least not for any length of time – demand (ie the economy) will be destroyed very quickly at that price until the price can drop.
            • Colonial Viper 11.2.1.3.2.1

              1 January 2011 at 4:49 pm

              I reckon China has secured forward contracts for their oil needs for years, at $40/barrel or less. Just guessing.
      • Robert Atack 11.2.2

        31 December 2010 at 5:37 pm

        Good on ya ts you stick to your guns, we need perishers.

        Below is how a friend signs off his emails.

        Survivors know the truth about money, energy, food and the environment, and are preparing for the meltdown.
        Perishers don’t know the truth, or don’t care, and still believe the system will provide, even as it starts to collapse.

        And while you are at it go and make a few babies … they say misery loves company.
        • tsmithfield 11.2.2.1

          31 December 2010 at 7:20 pm

          Like the article I linked to says, its the doomsayers who make the news. Its the people who bet against them who make the money.
      • Robert Atack 11.2.3

        31 December 2010 at 6:37 pm

        TS Another thing to keep in mind, New Zealand would be lucky to have 4 weeks supply in storage. I think it was Daffy as the then minister of energy who said “It was up to the oil companies to build the storage tanks, not his LABOUR government”. I think Parker (who?) jacked up pretense deal with our near neighbors – Japan and Norway to fill the storage gap we had with our international agreements – which still is – to have 3 months supply in New Zealand … alas we don’t have the capacity, I wouldn’t be surprised if the first weeks worth of storage, as far as ‘balancing the books’ goes is actually the fuel in everyone’s tanks.
        The previous peak oil aware government did nothing to 1 – honer international agreements and 2 – think about how New Zealand was going to survive in a post peak world
        Helen said it
        On the 18-4-2006 Helen Clark the Prime Minister of New Zealand said in answer to a question regarding fuel prices being so high “I’m sure (the rise in oil prices) is causing concern in every country. Because everyone is on the receiving end of the same phenomenon. Which is oil prices very high, because WE’RE PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR SHORT OF PEAK PRODUCTION, IF NOT ALREADY THERE, and that concentrates the mind….. snip…. yet her fool minister of energy David Parker came out a week later saying the world wouldn’t peak until 2030 – 37,
        Over 2,800 people have listened to Helen saying this here http://www.youtube.com/user/oilcrash1#p/u/95/YxIp5h0Xtuc I can find the link to Scoop if you want.

        Nick thinks peak oil is a load of crap – In May 2005 I recorded this conversation with him.
        http://www.youtube.com/user/oilcrash1#p/u/52/KIMiKUxCY4U

        And the blimp in charge of energy and I spoke on the phone (he rang me;) about 2 months before the last election Gerry showed zero knowledge of peak oil (to the point of denial), and fully supported Kiwi Saver
      • Bored 11.2.4

        31 December 2010 at 7:57 pm

        TS you really are as described by Felix, yes his language might be quite strong but penetrating the hide of a rhino and the skull of an ox does take a little strength. My hope for next year? A charitable one, you get a few rather needed IQ points. Happy New Year.
        • tsmithfield 11.2.4.1

          1 January 2011 at 11:50 am

          Bored, are you the resident moderator at the moment?

          If so, I have to say that your effort at moderation came across to me as tokenist and partisan. Honestly, if I had done the same as Felix, I expect I would have been banned at least for a month, if not for life. How about a bit of consistency when it comes to those on your own team.

          Lets consider Felix’s offences:

          1. Vile language that is totally unhelpful to debate.
          2. Arguable misogyny in his choice of language (I have seen people banned here for less).
          3. Not providing a link to support his assertion when asked. Again people have been disciplined here for this. In fact, he insisted it was my responsibility to find the link.
          4. Not actually turning up to the debate to justify his position given my response which I think is fairly clear logic.

          So far as your own comment above is concerned, I challenge you to read our exchange above and point out where my logic is flawed so far as the number of “heads” is concerned which set Felix off on a totally unnecessary rant. Others here agree with me so I am not alone. Felix had absolutely no basis for his rant, and he should withdraw and apologise IMO.

          [Moderation is not 100% … we are not the umpires in the debate, it’s not our role to declare ‘winners and losers’… we’re more like the bouncers, dealing with folk who haven’t read the policy, are blatantly trolling, or repeatedly ignore the basics of civilised debate. In this case Felix gets a free pass, well from me anyhow. Getting him pissed with you is a fair old achievement smitty and if you want satisfaction you can take it from that. No-one is perfect all the time…RL]
          • tsmithfield 11.2.4.1.1

            1 January 2011 at 3:57 pm

            Giving a free pass is OK. So long as you are consistent I can’t complain. However, I can’t see anything I wrote that justified him getting that pissed off, can you? Felix says a lot worse to me than anything I wrote and I don’t react in that sort of way.

            [Again it’s not the job of moderators to act every time a line of conversation goes sour, or someone momentarily looses it. While 99% of good behaviour round here is a matter of self-discipline, we all have our off days … and for the most part we usually regret them at least a little bit. It usually takes a repeated pattern of offenses before a known contributor with a credible history gets his or her butt booted….RL ]
          • felix 11.2.4.1.2

            3 January 2011 at 4:02 pm

            Wah wah can someone ban Tim for being a sad little weed?

            I’m going to have a cry if you don’t.
12. M 12

    31 December 2010 at 3:28 pm

    Election: I think National will go late for an election so as to bask in any reflected glory the ABs may afford him.

    Public service: More cuts, more people slipping through the cracks.

    Increased bennie bashing: goes without saying along with housing situations and health for many worsening perhaps with another strain of meningococcal disease gaining a foothold.

    Black budget: think it will be rather tame and boring as they have to get back into office first and then they can sucker punch the voters. Agreed though that workers are going to get bashed through more not-so-subtle threats and more people may lose their homes or have to declare bankruptcy.

    Howls for Goff’s departure: will increase because RWNJs realise just how thick Key really is and is likely to be trounced in political debates with Goff. If Goff hasn’t been to Toastmasters maybe he should join now to give him some finesse when dealing with slippery Key.

    ACT: I believe will just scrape in again because of Epsom but I’m not so sure about the Maori Party who may lose out because the new Foreshore Act is viewed the same as the old one and many Maori may feel they’ve been sold down the river.

    No new significant political parties: Sadly no, as I think Matt could really tap into voter discontent.

    NZ First: Please Winston stand in Key’s electorate if only to hector him mercilessly. Sometimes I wonder if we would still have a left-leaning government had Labour had not stood a candidate in Rimutaka in 2008.

    Yes, Winnie is a race baiter but there’s no doubting his high-wattage charisma – he’s a 1000 Watt bulb next to Key’s pen light if we’re going to get Freudian.
    • higherstandard 12.1

      31 December 2010 at 4:13 pm

      Is this Fisi doing a mirror crank post of his first comment ?
      • M 12.1.1

        31 December 2010 at 5:51 pm

        Hell no hs – I do not drink the same Koolaid as Fisi.
13. Zaphod Beeblebrox 13

    31 December 2010 at 4:01 pm

    RWC will be success and we will win. Unfortunately for the ABs they will have some weasly little guy hanging about them during and after the tournament asking to have his photo taken with them ad nauseum.He will be like the Where’s Wally guy in the back of every photo. You will see him having a beer with Dan, holding the cup up with Richie and discussing tactics with Graham. They won’t be able to get rid of him.
    • higherstandard 13.1

      31 December 2010 at 4:11 pm

      I’m pretty sure that Wayne Smith is allowed to be there.
      • Zaphod Beeblebrox 13.1.1

        31 December 2010 at 8:11 pm

        My prophet tells me he will have an uncanny resemblance to the guy who kept hanging around Ricky Herbert and the All Whites after they came back from South Africa. Just wanted his photo taken with them. Said he had a familar face.
14. hobbit 14

    31 December 2010 at 4:53 pm

    >>> “Labour, Greens, NZ First, and the Maori Party.”

    I almost want that to happen : It would be the end of the left for a very long time..
15. Frederick 15

    31 December 2010 at 6:22 pm

    I’m with you all the way Tsmithfield

    I can only count 4 – perhaps I’m thick too. I also find that when people can’t come up with a coherent response and just resort to vile abuse you’ve won the argument.

    oh by the way Key has definitely not committed to working with Peters …..your’e right again
    • tsmithfield 15.1

      31 December 2010 at 6:35 pm

      Thanks Frederick
      • jcuknz 15.1.1

        31 December 2010 at 8:28 pm

        If following the line ActNatsMaori/UF you say four parties then you are correct but if you say five heads you are also correct. parties and heads are quite different words and have different meanings. Really a rather silly argument.
        • tsmithfield 15.1.1.1

          1 January 2011 at 12:18 pm

          Felix lost that one on the “comparing apples with apples” argument.

          If you want the Maori party to be considered as two heads because it has two leaders, then he should have listed the leaders of the parties rather than the names of the parties. I would have accepted that as a logically sound to claim “five heads” as felix did. Four parties = four heads for the same reason.

          I agree it is a silly debate. The only reason I responded was the completely off the wall response I got from Felix over such a trite matter.

          As mentioned above, there seems to be two standards here because Felix got off this with a slap over the wrist with a wet bus ticket.
          • felix 15.1.1.1.1

            3 January 2011 at 4:04 pm

            “5-headed monster” was a national party scare slogan at the last election Tim. You and your buddies crafted it and peddled it, not me.

            Sorry you didn’t get the reference but I really can’t be held responsible for your density.
16. lprent 16

    1 January 2011 at 12:12 am

    Election year just began…….
17. Name 17

    1 January 2011 at 10:38 am

    With the dollar and the Euro adrift on a sinking Lilo in mid-Atlantic, the US in much the same place as France in 1790 and Russia in 1918 and China facing explosive inflation and the simultaneous collapse of its main export markets the trivia that is New Zealand politics will be about as relevant as a mouse waving a white flag amid a scrum of drunken elephants.
18. millsy 18

    1 January 2011 at 11:18 am

    1) The government will freeze the minimum wage in 2011 after pressure from the retail and hospitality industries. It will also look at special employment law a la The Hobbit for those sectors, with a view to defanging the unions.

    2) There will be crisis in rental accomodation due to mass evictions (esp. in boarding houses) and rent hikes across the board leading up to RWC 2011. (actually, the avalibility, provision, quality and price of rental accomodation, as well as landlord-tenant relation has been a sleeping issue for a long time, and Labour really needs to run with it this year)

    3) The world cup will be a logistical and organizational disaster in the main centres, especially with regards to the public transport systems, cause hundreds of people to be late for games, and problems with ticketing will cause heaps more people to be turned away from games, however, in the smaller centres, it will be a huge success. The All Blacks, of course will not win. They will make the final, but they will stumble.

    4) Several more Labour and National MP’s will announce their retirement at the election.

    5) The Budget will be a Black one, but there will be a freeze in spending across the board, rather than cuts. The private sector will start taking a greater role in delivering services for profit, and prople will placed last. There will be an announcment on the partial sale of some state owned companies, but it wont be till 2012.

    6) The government will open up Pike River for open casting, and blame the Greens and general environmentalist movement for the mine disaster.

    7) The WWG will recommend time limits for the UB and the chopping of the DPB. There will be some form of food stamps program brought in.

    8) Radio NZ will end up running ‘sponsorship’.

    9) The Savings Working group will recommend huge cuts to the public health and education system to force people to save up and go private. Kiwisaver will also go cumplosory, but with added sweetners

    10) And National to win the election, gaining more than 50% of the vote. ACT will hold on in Epsom, and Rodney will bring 1 or 2 MP’s on his coat tails. The Maori Party to hold their seats. Labour will get around 35% of the vote, and some more fresh blood. Goff to hold onto the Labour leadership into the first half of 2012. Winston will return, standing in Tamaki, the seat held by his mentor, he will prove to be more of a challenge to Key than Goff in the House. There will be a mini-Budget delivered by new Finance Minister Steven Joyce in December which will be slash and burn.
    • tea 18.1

      1 January 2011 at 4:09 pm

      *crying*

      god I hope you’re wrong about the first sentence of 10)
      • millsy 18.1.1

        1 January 2011 at 4:16 pm

        Me too, but it doesnt look good.
19. just saying 19

    1 January 2011 at 11:45 am

    Sadly, I think you are mostly right Millsy.
    Even about Winnie-first providing the most effective opposition the ‘house’ has to offer after the election.
    It doesn’t have to be this way.
    I think food stamps are a certainty. Cos the public’s not quite ready to have the poor in stocks for them to throw rotten veges at. Not yet.

    Still I am attempting to be a wee bit positive and I’m off to place a new-year’s bet on a horse my brother put me onto. So I’m not a complete pessimist.
20. Hilary 20

    1 January 2011 at 4:28 pm

    With growing awareness of inequality, and widening divisions between the rich (and powerful) minority and the poor or just surviving majority, and the lack of interest by the former in the latter, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another NZ-wide hikoi of hope later in the year
21. illuminatedtiger 21

    1 January 2011 at 6:39 pm

    More corruption (and subsequent resignations) from the National Party.
22. marsman 22

    1 January 2011 at 8:08 pm

    Happy New Year Everyone. For 2011 may we have prosperity for all, free education for all, free health-care for all, and plenty of laughs, care-free laughs as though we live in a land of plenty for all, which, we do………Yeah ok,I’m a bit pissed.
23. Robert Atack 23

    1 January 2011 at 8:54 pm

    Audio interview with Derrick Jensen 27 Dec 2010
    Robert Lorei confers with guests and listeners about issues in the local and global community
    http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/radioactivity/~5/aHDyhdGt2cY/wmnf_101227_130502_radioactivitym1_337.MP3
24. climate justice 24

    1 January 2011 at 11:22 pm

    Chris Trotters overview of the harsher side of 2010:

    We are gripped by the same collective urge to deny the evidence of our eyes and ears. As if the dismissal of the Canterbury Regional Council; the creation of Auckland’s “democracy-proof” CCOs; the Canterbury Earthquake Reconstruction and Recovery Act; Simon Power’s and Kate Wilkinson’s relentless stripping away of our civil and workplace rights; and the extraordinary expansion of the State’s search and surveillance powers; are happening in some other country – to some other people.

    There’s that same sullen refusal to be moved by the plight of our fellow citizens. Paula Bennett’s hand-picked razor-gang terrorises the sick, the disabled, and the solo mums. Judith Collins privatises the administration of misery. Nick Smith dismantles the world’s most successful no-fault accident compensation system. Sir Peter Jackson (to the frenzied cheers of the news media) pummels Actors Equity to a bloody pulp.
    http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/2010/12/stupid-silence-farewell-to-2010.html

    Unite union welcomed 2011:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUrlwMp3qGo ..
    with 2011’s first strike:

    http://socialistaotearoa.blogspot.com/2010/12/let-games-begin-worlds-first-strike-of.html
    good stuff Unite and the Service and Food Workers Union.
    • just saying 24.1

      2 January 2011 at 9:06 am

      Thanks cj.
      When I read it, I was with Chris until the las two lines, which I found chilling:

      “In less that two years, change came – and on a scale young Neil could scarcely have imagined.

      For me, at least, that’s an encouraging thought to take into 2011.”

      That ‘change’ was a radical swing to the right – the dawn of neoliberalism. I don’t find it comforting to remember it.

      IMO the next government will be further to the right than the current government whether Labour or National leads it. Both will take us further down the road we’re on. Labour’s swing to the left, when its finally announced, will be nothing more than fringe tinkering. Labour would not change any of the police state legislation passed under this government. Beneficiaries and the poor in general would be hit even harder than they are now, Labour would superficially at best, redress the cuts National is currently visiting on them. Goff has already promised not to increase taxes except possibly for those most adept at avoiding them. It will not increase social/community spending, Keys cuts will remain and attrition will do the rest.

      TINA neoliberalism will prevail. Those hurting already are the most invisible members of our communities. Labour will continue to use this veil even as the numbers of the seriously poor increase, and ‘Corrections’ would increasingly replace compassion.
25. Joe Carolan 25

    2 January 2011 at 11:53 am

    There will be an industrial campaign for a Living Wage led by Unite Union-
    Skycity workers had the Worlds First strike of 2011 on New Years Day
    video here-
    http://socialistaotearoa.blogspot.com/2011/01/workers-strike-at-skycity-casino-2011.html

    In March, they will be joined by striking workers in McDonalds and Burger King

    In June, the eyes of the world will be on NZ in the uprun to the World Cup. Hotel workers and Security workers will join the strike wave. There will be major marches against low pay and co ordinated strike action.

    Those in favour of a New Left Party who will be at the centre of this campaign for low paid workers will meet over the next six months. The possibilty of gaining three or four New Left MPs is a certainty if Hone joins the new party. It would be a far better political development than the resurgence of a racist NZ First.

    The global economic crisis will continue to deepen. The government parties in Ireland will be wiped out in a March election, with a massive swing to the Left- Labour, Sinn Fein and the United Left Alliance will all do very well.

    Unions will join the student revolt in Britain in late January- watch out for the new leader of Unite UK joining with Mark Serwotka of the PCS.

    Across the rest of Europe, general strikes will continue to mobilise the workers of Greece, Spain, Portugal and France. The crisis will also spread into Italy, Eastern Europe and other weaker economies. The potential for the Left to organise a European wide General Strike will be the prize of 2011.
    • just saying 25.1

      2 January 2011 at 11:56 am

      Thanks for the update Joe.
      Some cause for hope there. Needed that!
    • Colonial Viper 25.2

      2 January 2011 at 11:58 am

      Strength to the unions.

      But the public also need to understand how the underlying issues affect them as well if we are to garner broader sympathy. So there must be an effective public education and PR programme.

      And no Actors-Equity type own goals please, the Left does not need that in 2011.

      The government parties in Ireland will be wiped out in a March election, with a massive swing to the Left- Labour, Sinn Fein and the United Left Alliance will all do very well.

      This is likely so, but I am reminded of what Assange said. The power relationships of Western Government have been totally fiscalised. No matter who moves into Parliament in March, the debt hasn’t changed, the payment obligations hasn’t changed, the loan contracts hasn’t changed, the main assets. In other words, the capitalists stay in charge.

      Which new Irish Govt is going to have the guts to default on their loans and risk not having the foreign currency to pay for new pharmaceuticals, food and computers?
      • RedLogix 25.2.1

        2 January 2011 at 12:22 pm

        The power relationships of Western Government have been totally fiscalised. No matter who moves into Parliament in March, the debt hasn’t changed, the payment obligations hasn’t changed, the loan contracts hasn’t changed, the main assets. In other words, the capitalists stay in charge.

        Precisely. It was of course Assange’s words I had in mind on the other thread when I was saying the same thing.

        The end of the Roman Empire was the Dark Ages…. because ultimately the system persisted so long that it took the ravages of war to end it. Our only chance to avoid another Dark Age is to change the system before then, which means changing the minds and the hearts of the people.

        Which is not just difficult to imagine, it is miraculously difficult. But that is what I am getting at.. what is the one force that is known to reliably transform the human heart?

        Which new Irish Govt is going to have the guts to default on their loans and risk not having the foreign currency to pay for new pharmaceuticals, food and computers?

        Well Argentina did a decade ago; they had several bad years but have recovered quite well. This is the secret… they mainly govern us by the power of our OWN FEARS.
        • Colonial Viper 25.2.1.1

          2 January 2011 at 12:26 pm

          Yep with ya on this 😀
26. Sailor Sam 26

    3 January 2011 at 8:55 am

    The idea that Goff is electable as prime Minister is so ludicrous as to be funny.

    Labour supporters should realise that the “working class” is no longer its heartland.
    Labour’s heartland resides in the recipients of welfare and in the public servants of Wellington. Oh yes and in the chardonnay swilling, trendoid intelligentsia of the CBD’s of major cities (university professors, lawyers and school teachers).
    The notion that Labour reprsenst working class people is well and truly outmoded.
    “Working class” people, with a job, are becoming increasingly fed up with left wing trendoids getting into partliament under the Labour banner and sucking up their wages in increased taxation in order to pay for government welfare.
    Working people are more likely to vote National, ACT, NZFirst, Maori or Green.
    • RedLogix 26.1

      3 January 2011 at 1:15 pm

      One more mindless cliche in that lot and it would’ve been quite good parody. Nice try but a near miss.
      • Sailor Sam 26.1.1

        6 January 2011 at 7:49 am

        Attacking the messenger is the normal tactic of the lunatic left, so what else is new?
        No cliches here, just some plain, self evident truths.
        There are no “working class” labour MPs in parliament, check it out yourself and name some. if you can.
        • McFlock 26.1.1.1

          6 January 2011 at 10:59 pm

          “No cliches here, just some plain, self evident truths.”

          Ha.
          Look up the word “cliche”. Then cross-reference with “heartland” or “chardonnay swilling […] intelligentsia “.

          And then the entirety of “Labour’s heartland resides in the recipients of welfare and in the public servants of Wellington. Oh yes and in the chardonnay swilling, trendoid intelligentsia of the CBD’s of major cities (university professors, lawyers and school teachers).”

          As well as the old bugbear of “sucking up their wages in increased taxation in order to pay for government welfare.”

          The fact that you deny using a cliche when you quite obviously used several makes me suspicious of whether you really know what you’re talking about. So excuse me if I don’t take just your word for it.
27. KJT 27

    3 January 2011 at 1:14 pm

    Working people know that they were much better off with an income before 1984. Instead of 2/3 the taxes on less than half the real income. They have been taken by outright lies from NACT.
    The reason why they voted against Labour was that Labour continued with the low tax for the wealthy, very low wages neo-lib meme despite some changes around the edges. Most of us feel betrayed by all politicians.
    If National gets back in we will be paying the same taxes if not more plus much more for privatised services such as power.. Skilled young people will continue to leave for countries that value real skills and not money juggling.
    Anyone who still has a job will have their real income halved again.
    NZ will be as fucked as the US and the UK.

    Why does anyone believe we will catch up with Oz by doing the opposite of what they did.
    At least with Labour and the Greens we may have a chance of survival, especially if Labour is honest about returning to their principles and reversing neo-lib crap like tax cuts for the very well off.
28. KJT 28

    3 January 2011 at 1:50 pm

    When NACT have fulfilled their function of burgling every possible resource out of NZ to make themselves and their overseas big money US and Australian banking supporters rich they will be happy to let the left back in. To take the blame, pay the debts and build things up enough for them to have another go..
29. Shazzadude 29

    8 January 2011 at 11:47 pm

    My prediction is that we will not have a result on election night. We will end up with National 44%, Labour 35%, Greens 7%, New Zealand First 6%, Maori Party 2.5% (7 electorate seats), ACT 1.5 (Epsom) United Future 1.5% (Ohariu). Labour will win back the seats of Auckland Central, Waitakere and Otaki, (I’m still not willing to call New Plymouth, total coin-flip IMO) but lose Waimakariri, Hauraki-Waikato and Ikaroa-Rawhiti (upon the retirement of Parekura Horomia).

    The government will be National/New Zealand First, maybe with the Maori Party to neutralise them, much like the current scenario. National will not rule out New Zealand First this time around as they realise firstly that there is no way NAT/ACT will win the majority of votes again, and secondly Hide will no longer be fit to do the bidding against Winston given the hammering his reputation has taken.

    This will also be the last reign of Key, and Labour will win in 2014. This coalition may not even last until 2014.

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