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What will 2011 bring?

Written By: - Date published: 10:21 am, December 31st, 2010 - 122 comments
Categories: Politics - Tags:

Well 2010 has been a year for some political surprises such as Brown’s landslide victory over Banks and Celia’s win in Wellington and some not so surprising moments too such as Gerry and John’s lies about the Hobbit and the announcement of ACC privatisation just a few days before Christmas.

The big question is what will 2011 bring? Here’s a few things I reckon we’ll see.

A July election: For all the reasons I’ve given in my previous post on this I’m sticking by this prediction. The only reason I could see National going late would be to make the election a sideshow to the RWC and thus avoid any serious scrutiny.

More stories about how bad the public service/ACC/State Owned Enterprises are: The government will continue to leak stories and quietly recommend OIA’s to media in order to soften the ground for further cuts and privatisation.

Increased bennie bashing: We’re already seeing the low level campaigns about how sickness bennies need to get over themselves and get back to work as well as the rip-off stories leaked from Bennett’s office. Expect this to be ramped up.

A black budget: Just like the last time they were in power the tories will exacerbate the recession by cutting public spending and revenue. Probably through increased corporate tax breaks. They’ll claim it’s because we have a debt problem. Kiwis who are having to pick up more of the tab privately and earning less in real dollars because of high unemployment and removal of work rights will go further into debt.

More calls for Goff to go from vested interests: The gallery seem to have decided they want Goff gone for a bit of sport and National have been pushing the idea since Goff came in. Let me be clear on this – leadership change at this point would be a fiasco. Labour are heading for a mid-thirties result under Goff and, depending on how the left/right mix comes out across the whole of parliament, that might be enough to see the brakes applied to National’s right wing agenda. If Goff is deposed and there’s a July election that number will be a lot lower.

More ACT problems: They’ve managed to put the lid back on tight since the Garret debacle but there’s plenty of problems brewing for ACT which are likely to blow up big time this year. Whether this will spell the end of the party in parliament is the big question.

No new significant political parties: As much as I’d like to see a McCarten/Bradford/Harawira party in parliament and a Brash-led party bleeding ACT to death and not making the threshold it simply ain’t going to happen.

But I reckon NZ First will be back: Winston won’t get a seat but he’ll pick one to stand in that is good for grandstanding. Instead I reckon Ron Mark will stand for and take Wairarapa. They might even get five percent. And as much as I despise Winston’s racebaiting, he’s got some good economic policies and a hell of a lot more charisma than anyone else in parliament.

Well that’s me done for 2010. I’ll be celebrating tonight much the same way I do the end of every year – with a few friends a few LP’s and a few single malts. I wish all our readers well for the year ahead.

122 comments on “What will 2011 bring?”

  1. Fisiani 1

    I pick a November election coming soon after the All Blacks win the World Cup.
    The incoming National government will offer limited share options in state enterprises to increase the stock exchange and offer a safe place for investors to invest and boost the NZ economy.
    Increased helping beneficieries to get into employment to strengthen them and their children .
    A budget that pumps $1,100,000,000 into health and education and overseas aid. every other department is frozen and nothing like the 25% cuts in the UK
    More increasingly desperate calls for Goff to go but no one offering to be a sacrificial lamb. Labour to poll 29% and Goff to stand down that night. Massive infighting for his job.
    No more ACT problems and Rodney Hide to win Epsom.
    No new political parties.
    NZ First polling less than 2008 and not getting into parliament
    The economy to be picking up and growing and people looking forwards with confidence.

    • lprent 1.1

      Rodney Hide won’t win Epsom…

      You’d have to not be an aucklander to think that – his imposition of a gerrymandered super shitty on us enures that he is the walking dead, and that goes across the political spectrum.

      The rest of your ideas are in your usual same fantasy land.

      • higherstandard 1.1.1

        Hide won’t win Epsom – if he had any sense (…. haw haw) ACT would put up a candidate that the Epsom electorate could stomach and then get into parliament on her/his coat tails.

        How about Winston… that would truly be high farce.

        • lprent 1.1.1.1

          I’d pay to see Hide vs Winston debates in Epsom.

          But who have Act got who’d be a credible candidate in that electorate. Last time I looked Boscowean tends to explode or get lamingtons in debates. I think that goading him would be the favoured sport of opponents and audiences. The private would probably be a credible candidate for that electorate, but she is on the outer.

          Incidentally it has been pretty amazing how many woman have told me that they admire her for standing up to the bully and the smearing. Across the political spectrum as well which is unusual (the contrast with the national woman MP’s is particularly striking) Just at present I think she could pull some pretty significiant vote in an electorate.

          Who else?

          • burt 1.1.1.1.1

            I’d pay to see Hide vs Winston debates in Epsom.

            But who have Act got who’d be a credible candidate in that electorate.

            Are you saying Winston is credible ? Do you like it when political parties use secret trusts and don’t declare their big business backers and do you call that kind of behaviour credible ?

          • felix 1.1.1.1.2

            I’m sure Rodney would sell you a ticket Lynn.

          • Shazzadude 1.1.1.1.3

            As much as I want Hide and ACT to disappear from the face of the earth, I think Hide is going to hold it. ACT will probably still get over 1.25% of the vote, which instantly increases the value of Hide in the seat for the right.

            Key will want to get a majority of seats with ACT, and for this reason even just one additional seat for the right could be enough for him. We could even see an accommodation of Hide from Key. I think another alternative that no-one seems to be picking up on is for Peter Dunne to capture some of the soft vote. He did it with great success in 2002, and I think he can easily retain his electorate simply by making it clear to the conservative voters in his electorates that a vote for Shanks could end up being a vote for Chauvel.

            Your prediction about Mark and Wairarapa is interesting, and it’s one I’ve speculated on myself. Ron Mark will need to be of the belief that New Zealand First will definitely be back, given he already has interests as the CEO of FOMA and the mayoralty of Carterton. I do think it’s a seat that’s winnable for him, the Wairarapa has a strong conservative element, as evident by the almost 6,000 votes Merepeka Raukawa-Tait picked up as a Christian Coalition candidate in 1999, and Mark is a hometown hero, the conservative option and has the mayoralty of Carterton.

    • Eddie 1.2

      “offer limited share options in state enterprises to increase the stock exchange and offer a safe place for investors to invest and boost the NZ economy”

      1) why is ‘increasing the stockmarket’ a good thing in and of itself?
      2) don’t New Zealanders already own the SOEs, which they have invested in via their taxes? If New Zealanders give up part of their wonership of the SOEs in return for some cash to the government, who will then own them?
      3) how will partial privatisation boost the economy?

      all the rest is highly disputable but this “The economy to be picking up and growing and people looking forwards with confidence.” is just laughable. Are you watching the oil price or not?

      • killinginthenameof 1.2.1

        It will help the economy by rewarding the rich more than it fucks the poor, therefore increasing GDP, (in much the same way a govt appointed window smasher could increase GDP)

    • Draco T Bastard 1.3

      The incoming National government will offer limited share options in state enterprises to increase the stock exchange and offer a safe place for investors to invest and boost the NZ economy.

      And here’s me thinking that the whole idea of “investing” was to take a risk and not to have government guaranteed returns.

      Of course, even the government guaranteed returns aren’t what NACT are after. What they’re after is the sell-off of NZs assets to themselves and their rich mates so that they can steal even more from hard working (which doesn’t include them) NZers.

    • mcflock 1.4

      Of course, Fisi’s fantasy rests entirely on the AB winning the cup. If they don’t you can probably knock at least 10% off the nats right there.

    • Vicky32 1.5

      New Year booze, Fizzy? 😀
      Starting with the first fantasy, the ABs winning, and getting more and more fantastic! You ought write heroic fantasy or sf…
      Deb

  2. Here’s to all of you at the Standard!!

    May you flourish in the new year and have many fiery discussions on your blog as the election nears.
    And thank you from me for allowing me to have a platform for my (don’t I know it ) controversial points of view.

    Here’s is a little video dedicated to all of us: Think different

    Captcha: bar. LOL. Yep that’s were you’ll probably find me this weekend sometime.

      • LynW 2.1.1

        Thanks for that…a nice positive clip to begin the New Year on! I too wish to thank all the contributors at the Standard….I discovered this site via Chris Trotter’s Bowalley Road blog not long after the last election.I had by chance picked up his book ‘No left Turn’ in a New Year sale, found what I read very inspiring so goggle searched his name. I was oblivious to the blog communication network until then! The election results shocked me into action and a need for more information about people and politics. Reading your blogs has been very therapeutic as I have struggled to make sense of the current political climate in NZ. So keep your thoughts, ideas and views flowing…they are encouraging to others! They do make a difference!

  3. burt 3

    A black budget: Just like the last time they were in power the tories will exacerbate the recession by cutting public spending and revenue.

    Just like in 1990 after a Labour govt lasting more than 1 term wrecked havoc on the economy and it had to be rescued by harsh medicine…. Still the lovers of self serving politicians will fail to see the connection between socialism and popularist tax and spend policies rooting the economy and vote for more welfare and increased taxation in a policies of envy orgy or destruction.

    • mcflock 3.1

      Interesting.

      It seemed to me that the National “medicine” was just a stronger dose of the same poison.

    • felix 3.2

      Jeez, slow down burt. Take a moment to wipe the drool from your chin and read that comment back to yourself.

      Fucking gibberish.

      • Bored 3.2.1

        More fucking gibberish (this time from the left)…”where is our fekkin Cycleway?” Fat bloody chance of that being delivered in 2011.

  4. burt 4

    Irishbill

    Oh, but good luck courting Winston Peters to relive the great days of secret trusts and tax cuts for undeclared donors.

  5. just saying 5

    Goff is a national joke, not to mention the very embodiment of unapologetic neoliberalism and “meritocratic” privilege and entitlement. An establishment man who can’t oppose government policies because he pretty much agrees with them, and a man so pathologically out of touch that he thinks talking of “having a few beers with Sir Bob Jones” helps connect him to his ‘base’.
    God help us, an authoritarian to boot.

    The right will endlessly leap upon discussions about bumping Goff off because of the opportunties such discussions provide send Labour up as ridiculous and gutless, as well as irrelevant. It’s not a right-wing conspiracy to set Labour up to make a mistake at the eleventh hour. They really don’t care if he’s deposed or not, but talk about it? – the more the better as far as the right is concerned.

    • Zaphod Beeblebrox 5.1

      I disagree totally. He was an excellent foreign minister and a pretty good trade minister. Just because has a higher level of literacy and coherency than Old Smiley does not mean he cannot be PM. I also look at Cunliffe, King and Parker all excellent ministers who would be more than capable if they got a chance again.

      You obviously haven’t seen your bufoonish PM cracking his pathetic cheap cracks in question time much.

      • just saying 5.1.1

        Quote:”You obviously haven’t seen your bufoonish PM cracking his pathetic cheap cracks in question time much”

        My buffoonish PM?

        My objections to Goff come from the left not the right. “A higher level of literacy” is not enough. The left deserves better than not quite as bad as National.

        • Zaphod Beeblebrox 5.1.1.1

          Sorry there- we all share the embarassment that occurs when he opens his mouth and does things ike inventing a whole new race of people (Afganistanians???).

          Sure Phil is a little too conservative my liking too- but don’t think I’d go as far as calling him an embarassment.

  6. Pathetic analysis. You accept that Labour is only good for mid-30s when Labour’s natural working class constituency is the big numerial majority in NZ. And what’s more that majority you predict will continue to suffer from NACT attacks in 011.
    I take the opposite view. Labour will lose badly if it continues to try to deny its working class roots and makes like its the party of a classless consensus. The lessons of recent elections overseas is that the left of Social Democracy is reviving under pressure from workers suffering massive austerity.
    In NZ the right wing has declared class war and Labour under Goff is still blithely acting as if its business as usual. The return of Winston Peters is a throw back to the worst of Labour, economic nationalism which buries liberal state intervention in NZ settler racism.
    Look for a lively left of labour challenge if Labour continues to sleepwalk its way to defeat.

    • Colonial Viper 6.1

      Problem is that a lot of workers in their 20’s and 30’s, on $40K-$50K p.a., don’t see themselves as workers any more. They do not see themselves as generating economic value through their labour (brains and brawn).

      Instead they regard themselves as supervisors, managers, aspirational professionals, etc, and that their political home should be John Key.

      In other words: the serfs have been fooled into thinking that they are the masters, and as masters they naturally support the politics which actually materially hurts them.

      • Draco T Bastard 6.1.1

        In other words: the serfs have been fooled into thinking that they are the masters, and as masters they naturally support the politics which actually materially hurts them.

        QFT&E

        It really is amazing the number of people in the working class who vote for the people most antithetical to them.

    • Zaphod Beeblebrox 6.2

      Most of Labour’s working class constituency either don’t understand or care about politics. Most of them don’t vote either. Labour know that-look at whom their policies are directed.

  7. Dean Reynolds 7

    Hey Fisi, how often do you visit planet earth?

  8. randal 8

    cap: grateful.
    yes indeedy.
    2011 is the bringer of change.
    things aren’t going to be the same anymore.
    all the old stuff is going out the window.
    not like the hippies who could only join the system there is now going to be, to use an old phrase a new paradigm.
    what it will be no one can exactly say but you gotta be ready to catch the wave.

  9. hobbit 9

    >>> “More calls for Goff to go from vested interests”

    Nah – Leave him there – He’s a great asset to the Nats.

    Next year I think we’ll see:

    Labour lose the election, with Goff standing down a while after, with the
    far-left wing of the party struggling for control, which they’ll probably get,
    Labour will turn away from it’s center wing roots, and swing to the left,
    handing votes to that nice Mr Key as they go..

    People will leave ACC in droves, which will be a very bad look for the left,
    given their support for a state monopoly.

    Rodney will take Epsom, but with a reduced majority.

    Len will spend, spend, spend in Auckland, sealing his fate with the working class.

    Greens will probably get in, keeping the rest if us amused.

    ACT will get in, with people moving from National to ACT due to Labour-lite Key.

  10. tsmithfield 10

    Here is my prediction.

    NZ First will look like they are getting close to 5%. Key will reiterate his previous policy of not dealing with NZ First. Labour will be desperate, and will be willing to sell their soul to NZ First for the sake of power.

    The electorate will be faced with the alternatives of clean coalition arrangement the punters are familiar with compared with an abomination of a mish-mash involving Labour, Greens, NZ First, and the Maori Party. Given the dramas of the previous government with respect to this possible monster, the voters will swing to National in droves. Also, NZ First will fail to meet the 5% threshold due to the horror of voters.

    • felix 10.1

      Key will reiterate his previous policy of not dealing with NZ First

      You mean he’ll go back on his current stance? Shock I am.

      The electorate will be faced with the alternatives of clean coalition arrangement the punters are familiar with compared with an abomination of a mish-mash involving Labour, Greens, NZ First, and the Maori Party.

      Riiiiight. You guys trotted this bs out last time and we ended up with the 5-headed monster of the Nats, ACT, maori Party and United Future.

      Oh and the MoU with the Greens would’ve made it a 7-headed monster if that hadn’t ended up such an abortion.

      Bottom line: anything Key says before an election doesn’t count, just like none of it counted last time.

    • Zaphod Beeblebrox 10.2

      Clean coalition = Nat/MP/ACT. LOL.

      • felix 10.2.1

        + UF lol again

      • tsmithfield 10.2.2

        Felix: “You mean he’ll go back on his current stance? Shock I am.”

        I was not aware that Key has said he will work with Peters. Have you got a quote for that?

        Felix “Riiiiight. You guys trotted this bs out last time and we ended up with the 5-headed monster of the Nats, ACT, maori Party and United Future.”

        Ummm… is counting not your best skill, Felix? Did you mean four headed?

        Sure, the National grouping is “multifaceted” as well. However, a major difference is that Key has demonstrated considerable skill in bringing together widely disparate views into a coherent whole. On the other hand, Goff has enough trouble trying to keep factions in his own party under control yet alone crazies from other fringe parties as well. I think that is what will scare voters more than anything else.

        • felix 10.2.2.1

          No cockhole I meant 5 heads. Think about it. If you can.

          And yep, Key has gone back on the whole never-working-with-Peters bit. You can find the quotes yourself though, I’m not paid to run around after sycophants.

          To be clear, it was never a serious number from Key. He sang it before the election along with such hits as “I won’t raise GST” and “Capping, not cutting”.

          • tsmithfield 10.2.2.1.1

            Felix “No cockhole I meant 5 heads. Think about it. If you can.”

            Have already thought about it. You are the moron.

            If you meant the Maori Party should be considered “two heads” because it has two leaders, then you should have named leaders, not parties. The fact you named parties as “heads” means there can only logically be four “heads”.

            Felix “And yep, Key has gone back on the whole never-working-with-Peters bit. You can find the quotes yourself though, I’m not paid to run around after sycophants.”

            Right. No quotes. Thought as much. You made the assertion. Its up to you to prove it, not me. Point me to a quote where Key has emphatically said he will work with Peters this time around. You made the claim. I think moderators would insist that you prove it.

            • Lanthanide 10.2.2.1.1.1

              Felix is right, Key said a few months ago that anything goes with Winston. Again I’m not going to bother finding the quotes for you, though.

              captcha: quoting

              • Colonial Viper

                http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10692441

                Before the last election Mr Key ruled out forming a support arrangement with Mr Peters’ party. He hasn’t repeated that stance – yet.

                “It’s very hard to take Winston Peters seriously… I will worry about it if he decides to throw his hat in the ring, I will make the call then.

                • tsmithfield

                  Yeah. Just found the same link myself.

                  Key hasn’t made any decision to work with Peters next time around, as I thought. Clearly Felix/Lanthanide are wrong. Neither confirming nor denying does not equate to confirming. So positive affirmations in that respect from both Felix and Lanthanide are wrong.

                  So I was completely justified in asking for a link.

              • tsmithfield

                Don’t think so. He may have been non-commital about it either way. But I don’t recall him ever saying its all back on again.

                • felix

                  Please put the goalposts back where you found them, timmeh.

                  His current stance is not what you said it was: it’s what Lanth and I said it is, as CV so kindly and patiently showed you.

        • felix 10.2.2.2

          Fuck you’re a thick cunt tkellisnorrisharrissmithfeild. Nat ACT maori UF = 5 heads.

          And yep, Key has gone back on the whole never-working-with-Peters bit. You can get the quotes yourself though, I’m not paid to run around after dim-witted sycophants.

          To be clear, it was never a serious number from Key. He sang it before the election along with such hits as “I won’t raise GST” and “Capping, not cutting”.

          Remember those, cockhole?

          • tsmithfield 10.2.2.2.1

            See reply above. You’re making yourself more of an idiot the more you repeat nonsense.

            • tsmithfield 10.2.2.2.1.1

              BTW, I think its fairly obvious to anyone reading this exchange who the “cockhole” and “thick cunt” actually is.

            • felix 10.2.2.2.1.2

              Hey Tim,

              “Key hasn’t made any decision to work with Peters next time around, as I thought. Clearly Felix/Lanthanide are wrong. Neither confirming nor denying does not equate to confirming. So positive affirmations in that respect from both Felix and Lanthanide are wrong.”

              I never said he made a decision. I said you were wrong to say his current stance was that he had ruled out working with Winston.

              And you were. And you still are.

              “The fact you named parties as “heads” means there can only logically be four “heads”.”

              I know you’re a bit slow Tim, but I thought that was an obvious reference to the phrases “5-headed monster” and even “7-headed monster” that you and your buddies were throwing around before the last election. I’m using the same counting system.

              Good for the goose, timmeh. Cockhole.

          • Bored 10.2.2.2.2

            Look here Felix, cant have you cracking up at the end of the year, at the behest of somebody you describe accurately if with somewhat nasty language. Pull your horns in, charity please or the SPCA will be after you. Happy New Year.

  11. With the shit storm of peak oil guaranteed to hit within the next 3 years Labour will not want to win in 2011
    They will keep Geoff as leader to assure they don’t have a chance.
    The voters are treated like mushrooms, the Greed Party will attract more of the labour vote, as they will have no one else to vote for.
    Marshal law 2012?
    Rioting and blood on the streets, I hope
    National will make Kiwi Saver compulsory, until the blood starts flowing anyway, then all bets are off.
    We could be looking at a Cuban crises, with 80% of ‘our’ imported oil not arriving.
    Get ready to be hungry, get ready to protect your family … the cops will not be able to.
    Start a neighborhood watch group, learn who has the guns, or better still get one yourself and stock up on ammo. You will only need a semi auto .22 ($600.00 at the most)

    Use the neighborhood watch group to rally around people who might have foreclosures on their homes, make sure the banks/cops do not kick people on to the streets, the govt will not be able to help, maybe buy a tent, stock up on food with at least 3 months supply of staples.
    We are on our own, if you are unfortunate to have children it is your responsability to prepare …. ops that is a word people don’t like to use.

    • Also prepare for home invasions, place hidden weapons at easy reach around the house, and be ready to kill some bastard if they come a knocking, squirty bottles full of ammonia are a good idea, who is going to worry if they see you coming at them with a bottle of spray and wipe … but a squirt in the eyes then kick in the groin should slow any home invader. turn your bathroom into a panic room, with solid bars on the inside of the door, and a phone, don’t ring the cops ring the armed neighborhood watch group.

    • tsmithfield 11.2

      Robert “With the shit storm of peak oil guaranteed to hit within the next 3 years…”

      I wouldn’t get too worried about peak oil anytime soon.

      • Colonial Viper 11.2.1

        You missed the point ts. There is certainly not going to be any overall shortage of oil any time soon.

        Just a shortage of oil priced under US$200/barrel. And a shortage of petrol priced under $4/L.

        $260 to fill up a tank appeal to anyone here? That commute to downtown Auckland costing $30 each way, how does that sound to you?

        • Robert Atack 11.2.1.1

          CV I think we will be rationing soon after around $2.50/L, I would happily pay $4.00 though.

          A friend of mine spent about 4 – 6 hours over 2 days in the beehive with a high up MP … several years ago, explaining peak oil, the guy ‘got it’ one of his first comments was “We will have to introduce martial law to disarm the gangs”
          As we have seen in Italy, Greece, and the UK people do not like being made to live within the country’s means, we are not passive Cubans we are me mes. Understanding there isn’t a perpetual free lunch will see a lot of people struggling to get to grips with reality.

          PS It wouldn’t surprise me if it went down to $1.80/L again … as the global ecconomy hits the glass ceiling?

        • Zaphod Beeblebrox 11.2.1.2

          Been to Europe recently CV? They seem to manage ok paying those prices.

          • Colonial Viper 11.2.1.2.1

            With plenty of public transport options, good minimum wages and most cars on the market available with fuel efficient 1.4L, 1.6L or 1.8L engines – no probs.

            Again $260 to fill up a tank – that won’t pose a real problem for about 10% of our population. Everyone else? Thats the same money needed to feed a family of four for a week as is needed to feed a car.

          • Carol 11.2.1.2.2

            The price of fuel doesn’t only impact on filling cars. In Britain people are dying because they can’t aford to heat their homes:

            http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/dec/27/energy-companies-fuel-poverty

            Although we usually have one of the smallest differences between winter and summer temperatures at these latitudes, we have one of the highest levels of excess winter deaths. Roughly twice as many people, per capita, die here than in Scandinavia. Even Siberia has lower levels than we do. Between 25,000 and 30,000 people a year are hastened to the grave by the cold here – this winter it could be much worse.

            Why? Inequality. We have an economic elite untouched by the ills afflicting other people. It survives all changes of government. Its need for profit outweighs other people’s need for survival. Here’s how our brutal system operates.

            Fuel poverty is defined as having to spend 10% or more of your income on keeping your home at a decent temperature. Between 2003 and 2008 (the latest available figures) the number of households in fuel poverty here rose from 2m to 4.5m. That’s not people; that’s households: this blight now afflicts 18% of the UK’s population.

        • tsmithfield 11.2.1.3

          I don’t think oil will get to $200 within the next 5 years. Maybe within 10 years as a consequence of natural inflation. I subscribe to the thesis that as prices get too high there will be an automatic correction due to the resulting economic slow down. Also, as the article I linked to pointed out, the US has enormous supplies of gas now which I am sure they will use as an alternative for oil as the price of oil goes up.

          Then again, we could always do that $5000 dollar wager mentioned in the article I linked to…

          • Colonial Viper 11.2.1.3.1

            In that case I suggest a wager of NZ$500 to go to a major NZ charity of the winner’s choice tsmithfield. Specifically, I wager you that NYMEX Crude will break US$200 per barrel before the end of 2015. Offer good for 48 hours from now 😀

            • tsmithfield 11.2.1.3.1.1

              I’d be in if you are keen. You might want to think about it first, though. Here is my rationale for not within five years. The previous recession occurred just after oil reached $140. It crashed at that point. It has farted around for several years now and is only now pushing $90 again (it will undoubtably pull back in January and February which are the seasonally low points for oil).

              I don’t think many would argue that the world is in nowhere near as strong financial position as it was before the last crash, so it might take less than $140 to induce another one. If that is the case, oil will crash back down sometime in the next several years and take a few more years to push up to a similar level again. Plus a lot of alternatives coming on stream in the meantime, especially gas in the US which will have a huge impact since the US is such a large energy consumer.

              Come back to me and let me know if you are still on.

              • tsmithfield

                I should hedge my position slightly, as oil can be subject to sudden brief spikes for various reasons unrelated to underlying demand constraints. I think we both are thinking in terms of a sustained rise in oil. Therefore, I propose the wager would be $200 US dollars exceeded for a back to back period of three months within that time frame.

                • Zaphod Beeblebrox

                  Ha ha nice get out of jail clause there.

                  Still think your money is not that safe TS- sure only the rich countries will be able to afford high levels of car use/owership but you will also likely see countries in Africa an South America undergoing large levels of economic growth on the back of high commodity prices over the next decade. This will help manufacturers in India, China and Europe who can supply them with consumables. The next great consumer boom.

                  In NZ we will probably be catching the train, riding our bikes to work and living a lot closer to our workplaces than at present.

                  • tsmithfield

                    I would probably go a bit lower than two hundy for the three month period. Say over 190 for three months and touching $200 during that time. I just want to avoid something like a middle east issue causing a brief spike in prices as that is not really related to the long-term demand situ we have been discussing.

                • Colonial Viper

                  OK let me check through the historical charts and see what it looks like: my feeling is that wagering on a 3 month sustained price above $200/barrel sorta kills my chances. That’s because when high volatility price spikes hit and citizens start squeeling, OPEC usually temporarily boosts output and/or governments release their strategic reserves, which immediately causes a price dip.

                  e.g. a situation where oil keeps fluctuating between $220 and $190/barrel means that I won’t be able to win a 3 month duration wager.

                  So I’ll counterpropose a wager on 10 continuous trading days over $200/barrel (but I won’t do 3 months).

                  • tsmithfield

                    How about a month? I would be prepared to go to minimum $190 continuous over the period but touching $200 during that period.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Ahhhh the fine art of arbitrage.

                      We may actually have rendered this wager a moot point now. What do you think?

                      It seems that you believe that oil is fairly likely to go over $200/barrel for short periods of time within the next few years, but probably not be able to sustain that high price level for a month or several months continuously.

                      I on the other hand see it as a sure thing that oil is going to spike up over $200/barrel (and I don’t think that it will take 5 years to do so) but hesitate to bet that it is going to stay at that very high level for a month or several months on end – I think it will be volatile and bounce around a lot.

                      So it seems that the difference between our positions is not around whether or not oil is going to scramble upwards to $200/barrel and beyond – we seem to both see that as a distinct possibility, but how volatile and sustained the price will be when it occurs.

                      Yes its still a difference in positions/emphasis, but to my mind not a huge one.

                    • tsmithfield

                      I can’t rule out any possibility so far as oil spikes go. For instance, if Israel put up a imminent and believable threat to nuke Iran, then I imagine oil would spike quite vigorously. If it happened to be at a time when oil was say $140 already, then I could see it spiking quite a bit higher, certainly while the threat was in play. This is not to say I believe it would actually reach $200 on basic demand principles, though. I think the solution I have proposed is reasonable as it doesn’t actually require oil to maintain over $200 but does require that the price has increased substantially on a long term supply/demand basis enough to be consistently over $190. If you are correct, then I would expect that the slope of the graph would keep oil above $190 for quite awhile.

                    • RedLogix

                      Point being you are both more or less right. The supply and demand curves for oil both have remarkably steep regions at each end.

                      Oil has a very steep region at the upper end because you simply cannot pump oil out of the ground past a certain geological limit. No matter how high the price goes it is unlikely that we will ever pump oil at more than about 90MB/Day.

                      Equally the demand curve has a steep region near the lower end because no matter how high the price goes, there will always be a certain minimum demand for oil to run the basics of modern civilisation as we currently know it.

                      According to basic economic texts….and I have caveats around this… the market price lies on the intersection point of the two curves. When the interesection moves to lie on the steep part of either or both curves, small changes in either supply or demand result in very dramatic changes in price.

                      So far what we have seen is that when the price spikes, there is quite substantial suppression on the demand side… dropping the price. Which tells us that the demand curve is probably more elastic than the supply curve…. or at least in the region we are currently in.

                      The core problem however is this; each year underlying global demand is growing 3-4% while supply is not. Sooner or later … probably sooner … we will be forced into the region of the demand curve which is a lot steeper. That is the one thing we know for certain.

                      The exact timing of this is hard to predict because we haven’t been in this place before and I’m not aware of any solid research into the exact shape of these curves. Worse, this quasi-equilibrium analysis doesn’t account for the the dynamics of the supply and demand market for oil; something we are even less able to predict soundly.

            • Robert Atack 11.2.1.3.1.2

              CV
              I bet a work mate petrol would be $2.00/L by Christmas …. I lost $50.00 back in 2001.
              Can I be the charity?
              The NYMEX may not exist in 2015? or the $
              Most of ‘us’ have had egg on our faces over peak oil predictions, except maybe Colin Campbell who has stuck with 2015 (ish) from at least 1999, as to when things would turn tits up, and he ‘predicted’ the undulating plateau, which we may be just leaving… but I think you know all this shit.
              I said on radio “Watch out after the elections” … well Bush got back in and nothing happened 🙂
              We are constantly amazed how resilient the system is, even though we are on 3 wheels now, we are still maintaining balance .. unless you are living under a bridge in the USA dying of cancer or some such. $300 million a week, how much longer can this con go on for?

              • Colonial Viper

                Can I be the charity?

                And here I was thinking that *I* should be the charity lol.

                Yes agree with you, the people who do the forecasting know shit. Usually they are quite good at picking the gradual trends, but I could do that with a bit of graph paper and a slide rule.

                But where they almost always get it 100% wrong is around the sudden discontinuities. And it is those huge sudden step changes which are the events most consequential to the resilience of human and societal systems.

                In other words, “experts” are relatively great at forecasting inconsequential changes, but typically useless at forecasting the changes of high consequence.

          • Eddie 11.2.1.3.2

            “I don’t think oil will get to $200 within the next 5 years”

            the world has already proven that it can’t afford oil in the $100-$150 a barrel range – it causes global recession. So, no, I don’t think that we’ll see oil hitting $200 a barrel after-inflation, at least not for any length of time – demand (ie the economy) will be destroyed very quickly at that price until the price can drop.

            • Colonial Viper 11.2.1.3.2.1

              I reckon China has secured forward contracts for their oil needs for years, at $40/barrel or less. Just guessing.

      • Robert Atack 11.2.2

        Good on ya ts you stick to your guns, we need perishers.

        Below is how a friend signs off his emails.

        Survivors know the truth about money, energy, food and the environment, and are preparing for the meltdown.
        Perishers don’t know the truth, or don’t care, and still believe the system will provide, even as it starts to collapse.

        And while you are at it go and make a few babies … they say misery loves company.

        • tsmithfield 11.2.2.1

          Like the article I linked to says, its the doomsayers who make the news. Its the people who bet against them who make the money.

      • Robert Atack 11.2.3

        TS Another thing to keep in mind, New Zealand would be lucky to have 4 weeks supply in storage. I think it was Daffy as the then minister of energy who said “It was up to the oil companies to build the storage tanks, not his LABOUR government”. I think Parker (who?) jacked up pretense deal with our near neighbors – Japan and Norway to fill the storage gap we had with our international agreements – which still is – to have 3 months supply in New Zealand … alas we don’t have the capacity, I wouldn’t be surprised if the first weeks worth of storage, as far as ‘balancing the books’ goes is actually the fuel in everyone’s tanks.
        The previous peak oil aware government did nothing to 1 – honer international agreements and 2 – think about how New Zealand was going to survive in a post peak world
        Helen said it
        On the 18-4-2006 Helen Clark the Prime Minister of New Zealand said in answer to a question regarding fuel prices being so high “I’m sure (the rise in oil prices) is causing concern in every country. Because everyone is on the receiving end of the same phenomenon. Which is oil prices very high, because WE’RE PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR SHORT OF PEAK PRODUCTION, IF NOT ALREADY THERE, and that concentrates the mind….. snip…. yet her fool minister of energy David Parker came out a week later saying the world wouldn’t peak until 2030 – 37,
        Over 2,800 people have listened to Helen saying this here http://www.youtube.com/user/oilcrash1#p/u/95/YxIp5h0Xtuc I can find the link to Scoop if you want.

        Nick thinks peak oil is a load of crap – In May 2005 I recorded this conversation with him.
        http://www.youtube.com/user/oilcrash1#p/u/52/KIMiKUxCY4U

        And the blimp in charge of energy and I spoke on the phone (he rang me;) about 2 months before the last election Gerry showed zero knowledge of peak oil (to the point of denial), and fully supported Kiwi Saver

      • Bored 11.2.4

        TS you really are as described by Felix, yes his language might be quite strong but penetrating the hide of a rhino and the skull of an ox does take a little strength. My hope for next year? A charitable one, you get a few rather needed IQ points. Happy New Year.

        • tsmithfield 11.2.4.1

          Bored, are you the resident moderator at the moment?

          If so, I have to say that your effort at moderation came across to me as tokenist and partisan. Honestly, if I had done the same as Felix, I expect I would have been banned at least for a month, if not for life. How about a bit of consistency when it comes to those on your own team.

          Lets consider Felix’s offences:

          1. Vile language that is totally unhelpful to debate.
          2. Arguable misogyny in his choice of language (I have seen people banned here for less).
          3. Not providing a link to support his assertion when asked. Again people have been disciplined here for this. In fact, he insisted it was my responsibility to find the link.
          4. Not actually turning up to the debate to justify his position given my response which I think is fairly clear logic.

          So far as your own comment above is concerned, I challenge you to read our exchange above and point out where my logic is flawed so far as the number of “heads” is concerned which set Felix off on a totally unnecessary rant. Others here agree with me so I am not alone. Felix had absolutely no basis for his rant, and he should withdraw and apologise IMO.

          [Moderation is not 100% … we are not the umpires in the debate, it’s not our role to declare ‘winners and losers’… we’re more like the bouncers, dealing with folk who haven’t read the policy, are blatantly trolling, or repeatedly ignore the basics of civilised debate. In this case Felix gets a free pass, well from me anyhow. Getting him pissed with you is a fair old achievement smitty and if you want satisfaction you can take it from that. No-one is perfect all the time…RL]

          • tsmithfield 11.2.4.1.1

            Giving a free pass is OK. So long as you are consistent I can’t complain. However, I can’t see anything I wrote that justified him getting that pissed off, can you? Felix says a lot worse to me than anything I wrote and I don’t react in that sort of way.

            [Again it’s not the job of moderators to act every time a line of conversation goes sour, or someone momentarily looses it. While 99% of good behaviour round here is a matter of self-discipline, we all have our off days … and for the most part we usually regret them at least a little bit. It usually takes a repeated pattern of offenses before a known contributor with a credible history gets his or her butt booted….RL ]

          • felix 11.2.4.1.2

            Wah wah can someone ban Tim for being a sad little weed?

            I’m going to have a cry if you don’t.

  12. M 12

    Election: I think National will go late for an election so as to bask in any reflected glory the ABs may afford him.

    Public service: More cuts, more people slipping through the cracks.

    Increased bennie bashing: goes without saying along with housing situations and health for many worsening perhaps with another strain of meningococcal disease gaining a foothold.

    Black budget: think it will be rather tame and boring as they have to get back into office first and then they can sucker punch the voters. Agreed though that workers are going to get bashed through more not-so-subtle threats and more people may lose their homes or have to declare bankruptcy.

    Howls for Goff’s departure: will increase because RWNJs realise just how thick Key really is and is likely to be trounced in political debates with Goff. If Goff hasn’t been to Toastmasters maybe he should join now to give him some finesse when dealing with slippery Key.

    ACT: I believe will just scrape in again because of Epsom but I’m not so sure about the Maori Party who may lose out because the new Foreshore Act is viewed the same as the old one and many Maori may feel they’ve been sold down the river.

    No new significant political parties: Sadly no, as I think Matt could really tap into voter discontent.

    NZ First: Please Winston stand in Key’s electorate if only to hector him mercilessly. Sometimes I wonder if we would still have a left-leaning government had Labour had not stood a candidate in Rimutaka in 2008.

    Yes, Winnie is a race baiter but there’s no doubting his high-wattage charisma – he’s a 1000 Watt bulb next to Key’s pen light if we’re going to get Freudian.

  13. Zaphod Beeblebrox 13

    RWC will be success and we will win. Unfortunately for the ABs they will have some weasly little guy hanging about them during and after the tournament asking to have his photo taken with them ad nauseum.He will be like the Where’s Wally guy in the back of every photo. You will see him having a beer with Dan, holding the cup up with Richie and discussing tactics with Graham. They won’t be able to get rid of him.

    • higherstandard 13.1

      I’m pretty sure that Wayne Smith is allowed to be there.

      • Zaphod Beeblebrox 13.1.1

        My prophet tells me he will have an uncanny resemblance to the guy who kept hanging around Ricky Herbert and the All Whites after they came back from South Africa. Just wanted his photo taken with them. Said he had a familar face.

  14. hobbit 14

    >>> “Labour, Greens, NZ First, and the Maori Party.”

    I almost want that to happen : It would be the end of the left for a very long time..

  15. Frederick 15

    I’m with you all the way Tsmithfield

    I can only count 4 – perhaps I’m thick too. I also find that when people can’t come up with a coherent response and just resort to vile abuse you’ve won the argument.

    oh by the way Key has definitely not committed to working with Peters …..your’e right again

    • tsmithfield 15.1

      Thanks Frederick

      • jcuknz 15.1.1

        If following the line ActNatsMaori/UF you say four parties then you are correct but if you say five heads you are also correct. parties and heads are quite different words and have different meanings. Really a rather silly argument.

        • tsmithfield 15.1.1.1

          Felix lost that one on the “comparing apples with apples” argument.

          If you want the Maori party to be considered as two heads because it has two leaders, then he should have listed the leaders of the parties rather than the names of the parties. I would have accepted that as a logically sound to claim “five heads” as felix did. Four parties = four heads for the same reason.

          I agree it is a silly debate. The only reason I responded was the completely off the wall response I got from Felix over such a trite matter.

          As mentioned above, there seems to be two standards here because Felix got off this with a slap over the wrist with a wet bus ticket.

          • felix 15.1.1.1.1

            “5-headed monster” was a national party scare slogan at the last election Tim. You and your buddies crafted it and peddled it, not me.

            Sorry you didn’t get the reference but I really can’t be held responsible for your density.

  16. lprent 16

    Election year just began…….

  17. Name 17

    With the dollar and the Euro adrift on a sinking Lilo in mid-Atlantic, the US in much the same place as France in 1790 and Russia in 1918 and China facing explosive inflation and the simultaneous collapse of its main export markets the trivia that is New Zealand politics will be about as relevant as a mouse waving a white flag amid a scrum of drunken elephants.

  18. millsy 18

    1) The government will freeze the minimum wage in 2011 after pressure from the retail and hospitality industries. It will also look at special employment law a la The Hobbit for those sectors, with a view to defanging the unions.

    2) There will be crisis in rental accomodation due to mass evictions (esp. in boarding houses) and rent hikes across the board leading up to RWC 2011. (actually, the avalibility, provision, quality and price of rental accomodation, as well as landlord-tenant relation has been a sleeping issue for a long time, and Labour really needs to run with it this year)

    3) The world cup will be a logistical and organizational disaster in the main centres, especially with regards to the public transport systems, cause hundreds of people to be late for games, and problems with ticketing will cause heaps more people to be turned away from games, however, in the smaller centres, it will be a huge success. The All Blacks, of course will not win. They will make the final, but they will stumble.

    4) Several more Labour and National MP’s will announce their retirement at the election.

    5) The Budget will be a Black one, but there will be a freeze in spending across the board, rather than cuts. The private sector will start taking a greater role in delivering services for profit, and prople will placed last. There will be an announcment on the partial sale of some state owned companies, but it wont be till 2012.

    6) The government will open up Pike River for open casting, and blame the Greens and general environmentalist movement for the mine disaster.

    7) The WWG will recommend time limits for the UB and the chopping of the DPB. There will be some form of food stamps program brought in.

    8) Radio NZ will end up running ‘sponsorship’.

    9) The Savings Working group will recommend huge cuts to the public health and education system to force people to save up and go private. Kiwisaver will also go cumplosory, but with added sweetners

    10) And National to win the election, gaining more than 50% of the vote. ACT will hold on in Epsom, and Rodney will bring 1 or 2 MP’s on his coat tails. The Maori Party to hold their seats. Labour will get around 35% of the vote, and some more fresh blood. Goff to hold onto the Labour leadership into the first half of 2012. Winston will return, standing in Tamaki, the seat held by his mentor, he will prove to be more of a challenge to Key than Goff in the House. There will be a mini-Budget delivered by new Finance Minister Steven Joyce in December which will be slash and burn.

  19. just saying 19

    Sadly, I think you are mostly right Millsy.
    Even about Winnie-first providing the most effective opposition the ‘house’ has to offer after the election.
    It doesn’t have to be this way.
    I think food stamps are a certainty. Cos the public’s not quite ready to have the poor in stocks for them to throw rotten veges at. Not yet.

    Still I am attempting to be a wee bit positive and I’m off to place a new-year’s bet on a horse my brother put me onto. So I’m not a complete pessimist.

  20. Hilary 20

    With growing awareness of inequality, and widening divisions between the rich (and powerful) minority and the poor or just surviving majority, and the lack of interest by the former in the latter, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another NZ-wide hikoi of hope later in the year

  21. illuminatedtiger 21

    More corruption (and subsequent resignations) from the National Party.

  22. marsman 22

    Happy New Year Everyone. For 2011 may we have prosperity for all, free education for all, free health-care for all, and plenty of laughs, care-free laughs as though we live in a land of plenty for all, which, we do………Yeah ok,I’m a bit pissed.

  23. Audio interview with Derrick Jensen 27 Dec 2010
    Robert Lorei confers with guests and listeners about issues in the local and global community
    [audio src="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/radioactivity/~5/aHDyhdGt2cY/wmnf_101227_130502_radioactivitym1_337.MP3" /]

  24. Chris Trotters overview of the harsher side of 2010:

    We are gripped by the same collective urge to deny the evidence of our eyes and ears. As if the dismissal of the Canterbury Regional Council; the creation of Auckland’s “democracy-proof” CCOs; the Canterbury Earthquake Reconstruction and Recovery Act; Simon Power’s and Kate Wilkinson’s relentless stripping away of our civil and workplace rights; and the extraordinary expansion of the State’s search and surveillance powers; are happening in some other country – to some other people.

    There’s that same sullen refusal to be moved by the plight of our fellow citizens. Paula Bennett’s hand-picked razor-gang terrorises the sick, the disabled, and the solo mums. Judith Collins privatises the administration of misery. Nick Smith dismantles the world’s most successful no-fault accident compensation system. Sir Peter Jackson (to the frenzied cheers of the news media) pummels Actors Equity to a bloody pulp.
    http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/2010/12/stupid-silence-farewell-to-2010.html

    Unite union welcomed 2011:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUrlwMp3qGo ..
    with 2011’s first strike:

    http://socialistaotearoa.blogspot.com/2010/12/let-games-begin-worlds-first-strike-of.html
    good stuff Unite and the Service and Food Workers Union.

    • just saying 24.1

      Thanks cj.
      When I read it, I was with Chris until the las two lines, which I found chilling:

      “In less that two years, change came – and on a scale young Neil could scarcely have imagined.

      For me, at least, that’s an encouraging thought to take into 2011.”

      That ‘change’ was a radical swing to the right – the dawn of neoliberalism. I don’t find it comforting to remember it.

      IMO the next government will be further to the right than the current government whether Labour or National leads it. Both will take us further down the road we’re on. Labour’s swing to the left, when its finally announced, will be nothing more than fringe tinkering. Labour would not change any of the police state legislation passed under this government. Beneficiaries and the poor in general would be hit even harder than they are now, Labour would superficially at best, redress the cuts National is currently visiting on them. Goff has already promised not to increase taxes except possibly for those most adept at avoiding them. It will not increase social/community spending, Keys cuts will remain and attrition will do the rest.

      TINA neoliberalism will prevail. Those hurting already are the most invisible members of our communities. Labour will continue to use this veil even as the numbers of the seriously poor increase, and ‘Corrections’ would increasingly replace compassion.

  25. Joe Carolan 25

    There will be an industrial campaign for a Living Wage led by Unite Union-
    Skycity workers had the Worlds First strike of 2011 on New Years Day
    video here-
    http://socialistaotearoa.blogspot.com/2011/01/workers-strike-at-skycity-casino-2011.html

    In March, they will be joined by striking workers in McDonalds and Burger King

    In June, the eyes of the world will be on NZ in the uprun to the World Cup. Hotel workers and Security workers will join the strike wave. There will be major marches against low pay and co ordinated strike action.

    Those in favour of a New Left Party who will be at the centre of this campaign for low paid workers will meet over the next six months. The possibilty of gaining three or four New Left MPs is a certainty if Hone joins the new party. It would be a far better political development than the resurgence of a racist NZ First.

    The global economic crisis will continue to deepen. The government parties in Ireland will be wiped out in a March election, with a massive swing to the Left- Labour, Sinn Fein and the United Left Alliance will all do very well.

    Unions will join the student revolt in Britain in late January- watch out for the new leader of Unite UK joining with Mark Serwotka of the PCS.

    Across the rest of Europe, general strikes will continue to mobilise the workers of Greece, Spain, Portugal and France. The crisis will also spread into Italy, Eastern Europe and other weaker economies. The potential for the Left to organise a European wide General Strike will be the prize of 2011.

    • just saying 25.1

      Thanks for the update Joe.
      Some cause for hope there. Needed that!

    • Colonial Viper 25.2

      Strength to the unions.

      But the public also need to understand how the underlying issues affect them as well if we are to garner broader sympathy. So there must be an effective public education and PR programme.

      And no Actors-Equity type own goals please, the Left does not need that in 2011.

      The government parties in Ireland will be wiped out in a March election, with a massive swing to the Left- Labour, Sinn Fein and the United Left Alliance will all do very well.

      This is likely so, but I am reminded of what Assange said. The power relationships of Western Government have been totally fiscalised. No matter who moves into Parliament in March, the debt hasn’t changed, the payment obligations hasn’t changed, the loan contracts hasn’t changed, the main assets. In other words, the capitalists stay in charge.

      Which new Irish Govt is going to have the guts to default on their loans and risk not having the foreign currency to pay for new pharmaceuticals, food and computers?

      • RedLogix 25.2.1

        The power relationships of Western Government have been totally fiscalised. No matter who moves into Parliament in March, the debt hasn’t changed, the payment obligations hasn’t changed, the loan contracts hasn’t changed, the main assets. In other words, the capitalists stay in charge.

        Precisely. It was of course Assange’s words I had in mind on the other thread when I was saying the same thing.

        The end of the Roman Empire was the Dark Ages…. because ultimately the system persisted so long that it took the ravages of war to end it. Our only chance to avoid another Dark Age is to change the system before then, which means changing the minds and the hearts of the people.

        Which is not just difficult to imagine, it is miraculously difficult. But that is what I am getting at.. what is the one force that is known to reliably transform the human heart?

        Which new Irish Govt is going to have the guts to default on their loans and risk not having the foreign currency to pay for new pharmaceuticals, food and computers?

        Well Argentina did a decade ago; they had several bad years but have recovered quite well. This is the secret… they mainly govern us by the power of our OWN FEARS.

  26. Sailor Sam 26

    The idea that Goff is electable as prime Minister is so ludicrous as to be funny.

    Labour supporters should realise that the “working class” is no longer its heartland.
    Labour’s heartland resides in the recipients of welfare and in the public servants of Wellington. Oh yes and in the chardonnay swilling, trendoid intelligentsia of the CBD’s of major cities (university professors, lawyers and school teachers).
    The notion that Labour reprsenst working class people is well and truly outmoded.
    “Working class” people, with a job, are becoming increasingly fed up with left wing trendoids getting into partliament under the Labour banner and sucking up their wages in increased taxation in order to pay for government welfare.
    Working people are more likely to vote National, ACT, NZFirst, Maori or Green.

    • RedLogix 26.1

      One more mindless cliche in that lot and it would’ve been quite good parody. Nice try but a near miss.

      • Sailor Sam 26.1.1

        Attacking the messenger is the normal tactic of the lunatic left, so what else is new?
        No cliches here, just some plain, self evident truths.
        There are no “working class” labour MPs in parliament, check it out yourself and name some. if you can.

        • McFlock 26.1.1.1

          “No cliches here, just some plain, self evident truths.”

          Ha.
          Look up the word “cliche”. Then cross-reference with “heartland” or “chardonnay swilling […] intelligentsia “.

          And then the entirety of “Labour’s heartland resides in the recipients of welfare and in the public servants of Wellington. Oh yes and in the chardonnay swilling, trendoid intelligentsia of the CBD’s of major cities (university professors, lawyers and school teachers).”

          As well as the old bugbear of “sucking up their wages in increased taxation in order to pay for government welfare.”

          The fact that you deny using a cliche when you quite obviously used several makes me suspicious of whether you really know what you’re talking about. So excuse me if I don’t take just your word for it.

  27. KJT 27

    Working people know that they were much better off with an income before 1984. Instead of 2/3 the taxes on less than half the real income. They have been taken by outright lies from NACT.
    The reason why they voted against Labour was that Labour continued with the low tax for the wealthy, very low wages neo-lib meme despite some changes around the edges. Most of us feel betrayed by all politicians.
    If National gets back in we will be paying the same taxes if not more plus much more for privatised services such as power.. Skilled young people will continue to leave for countries that value real skills and not money juggling.
    Anyone who still has a job will have their real income halved again.
    NZ will be as fucked as the US and the UK.

    Why does anyone believe we will catch up with Oz by doing the opposite of what they did.
    At least with Labour and the Greens we may have a chance of survival, especially if Labour is honest about returning to their principles and reversing neo-lib crap like tax cuts for the very well off.

  28. KJT 28

    When NACT have fulfilled their function of burgling every possible resource out of NZ to make themselves and their overseas big money US and Australian banking supporters rich they will be happy to let the left back in. To take the blame, pay the debts and build things up enough for them to have another go..

  29. Shazzadude 29

    My prediction is that we will not have a result on election night. We will end up with National 44%, Labour 35%, Greens 7%, New Zealand First 6%, Maori Party 2.5% (7 electorate seats), ACT 1.5 (Epsom) United Future 1.5% (Ohariu). Labour will win back the seats of Auckland Central, Waitakere and Otaki, (I’m still not willing to call New Plymouth, total coin-flip IMO) but lose Waimakariri, Hauraki-Waikato and Ikaroa-Rawhiti (upon the retirement of Parekura Horomia).

    The government will be National/New Zealand First, maybe with the Maori Party to neutralise them, much like the current scenario. National will not rule out New Zealand First this time around as they realise firstly that there is no way NAT/ACT will win the majority of votes again, and secondly Hide will no longer be fit to do the bidding against Winston given the hammering his reputation has taken.

    This will also be the last reign of Key, and Labour will win in 2014. This coalition may not even last until 2014.

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    It's my distraction,  setting up tiny scenes to photograph.  I've got stuck on the Babushka dolls for now.  Something about their bubble shape.  Something about their never changing, smiling features, suggesting persistent equanimity.  Can we get through everything that is being thrown at us and keep at least a tiny ...
    9 hours ago
  • Life in Lock Down: Day 6
    . . March 31: Day six of living in lock-down… This time I managed to sleep a little longer and the alarm woke me at the pre-set time: 6.55am. Then remembered I was working a later shift and could’ve slept in. Oh well, there are things to do at home. ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    9 hours ago
  • March ’20 – NZ blogs sitemeter ranking
    Image credit: Diamond Harbour School Blogs I notice a few regulars no longer allow public access to the site counters. This may happen accidentally when the blog format is altered. If your blog is unexpectedly missing or ...
    10 hours ago
  • Hard News: Poll Pot and the partisans
    Yesterday's Horizon poll showing support for a "Yes" vote in this year's cannabis referendum sliding into the majority for the first time in a year looked like good news for reformers – and it probably is. But the result warrants some scrutiny.The poll is the fifth in a series commissioned ...
    11 hours ago
  • Why those bubbles are so important
    For almost a week now, every one of us who isn’t an essential worker has been confined to their bubble. We are allowed to go shopping for groceries, to visit the doctor, and to get a bit of exercise if we stay local. The reason we are doing this is ...
    SciBlogsBy Siouxsie Wiles
    12 hours ago
  • A Government System That Works
    The Covid-19 saga will no doubt produce many twists and turns for us before it is finally brought to an end. But one thing it has shown us – and what comfort it should bring us – is that our country’s government is in good hands. I am not thinking ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    13 hours ago
  • Smashing down the barriers: Where are we at with COVID vaccines?
    In the absence of a vaccine or a cure for a deadly disease, staying home in your bubble is what you do, the concept is not new.  To the best of my knowledge last time we did this in NZ was for polio, in the years before a vaccine came ...
    SciBlogsBy Helen Petousis Harris
    24 hours ago
  • National Network on Cuba (USA): “Cuban medical solidarity is a pillar of its society and is founde...
    The following statement was released on March 28 by the National Network on Cuba, a coalition of 40 groups, based in the United States. In recent weeks, Cuba has deployed hundreds of medical providers to over a dozen countries in Europe, Asia, as well as to their neighbors in Latin ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    24 hours ago
  • Alarming decrease in calves increases fears for endangered Hector’s dolphin
    This has been a terrible summer for Hector’s dolphins. The first indication was very low numbers of dolphin sightings during late spring and early summer. The Otago University Marine Mammal Research Team has carried out routine dolphin surveys at Banks Peninsula for more than 30 years. In all that time, ...
    SciBlogsBy Otago Marine Science
    1 day ago
  • Time for Grant Robertson to reveal package #2?
    On March 17, Finance Minister Grant Robertson was quick out of the blocks with an economic rescue package to help businesses through the inevitable recession resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. Robertson had pulled together a scheme in short order that so far seems to have saved many jobs. In his ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    1 day ago
  • Saving lives
    The purpose of the lockdown is to save lives, by reducing the spread of covid-19. We won't know if its really working for another week, but given the devastation that will result if it doesn't - 14,000 dead is the optimistic scenario - its definitely worth trying. But pausing the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • Life in Lock Down: Day 5
    . . March 30: Day five of living in lock-down… Woke up still in darkness. Alarm hadn’t gone off. Turn to radio clock; it’s a few minutes after 6am… I lie there in the dark, waiting to drift off to sleep… but it ain’t happening. Clock ticks over to 6.55 ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    1 day ago
  • Speaker: Les Gray: the man who told the truth
    The story of Les Gray, the public sector psychologist who told the truth about his use of cannabis and set off a storm, has a special place in the lore of cannabis reform in New Zealand.When Paul Shannon interviewed Gray for the 'Dope and Hope' issue of Planet magazine in ...
    1 day ago
  • Why now? Historical specificity and the perfect storm that has created trans identity politics
    by Phil Duncan For Marxists, a key concern about social trends is their context – not just their causes, but why they happen when they do.  Events and phenomena have causes, but they also are time or period-specific. While much of the left have capitulated recently to postmodernism, most notably ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 days ago
  • Time for a living wage for supermarket workers
    Since the lockdown began, we've all suddenly been reminded who the actually essential workers in our society are: not the people at the top who pay themselves the big bucks and rort the perks, but the people at the bottom they screw over and squeeze: cleaners, warehouse staff, truck drivers ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Hard News: MUSIC: Lockdown Grooves
    Kia ora! As I've watched nearly all my remaining work vanish over the past couple of days, it has occured to me that one good way to keep me away from arguing with fools on Twitter all the time (in the knowledge that all we're really doing is processing our ...
    2 days ago
  • A place of greater safety?
    Aotearoa New Zealand has committed to trying to extirpate the virus that causes COVID-19 from its shores. To do that, as a society we’ve moved to “Level 4”. That means adapting to unprecedented restrictions on our personal freedoms, particularly to our rights to move freely and associate with friends and ...
    PunditBy Andrew Geddis
    2 days ago
  • The police and public trust
    When the Prime Minister declared a state of emergency last week, she handed the police powers to enforce it. And almost immediately, we started hearing about heavy-handed, arbitrary "enforcement" by police who (at best) cared more about order than law, or (more likely) had no idea what the rules were ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Life in Lock Down: Day 4
    . . Lock Down: Day 4 – A photo essay with observations . March 29: Usual wake up routine as RNZ snaps on my radio-clock. Jim Mora’s voice slowly enters my conciousness; there’s talk of a second wave of covid19 taking hold in South Korea; the week in Parliament – ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    2 days ago
  • COVID-19 vs New Zealand
    Yesterday, New Zealand recorded its first Covid-19 related death on the West Coast. Unfortunately this is unlikely to be the only fatality, with the virus now being found in every region of the country.However despite the significant danger, people are still unfortunately breaching lockdown rules.There’s really only one main very ...
    2 days ago
  • 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #13
    Story of the Week... Toon of the Week... Coming Soon on SkS... Climate Feedback Claim Review... SkS Week in Review... Poster of the Week... Story of the Week... ‘Misinformation kills’: The link between coronavirus conspiracies and climate denial   Grist / Rob Kim / Stringer / CSA Images  Scientific ...
    3 days ago
  • Rāhui day 4
    The kids did surprisingly well today – meltdown count was about 3, and mostly fairly short ones. (And a fourth while I was writing.) Game-wise I had a go at Fell Seal: Arbiter’s Mark. It’s a fairly standard RPG with turn-based combat and what they call a “mature storyline” (it ...
    The little pakehaBy chrismiller
    3 days ago
  • Letter to a friend
    by Don Franks Hi David, Nice hearing from you, I’m glad to hear you’re getting by okay in these grim times. You asked how’s it going for us back here in New Zealand. You would have heard that the whole country is locked down and with breaks for exercise and ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    3 days ago
  • Life in Lock Down: Day 3
    . . Lock Down: Day 3 – A photo essay with observations . March 28: First day of the first weekend in Lock Down. It feels like it’s been weeks since only Level 3 was declared last Tuesday, only four days ago. Woke up this morning to RNZ; coffee; toast, ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    3 days ago
  • 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #13
    A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week, i.e., Sun, Mar 22, 2020 through Sat, Mar 28, 2020 Articles Linked to on Facebook Sun, Mar 22, 2020 In Just 10 Years, Warming Has Increased the Odds of Disasters by Chelsea Harvey, ...
    4 days ago
  • Rāhui day 3
    I’m here in lockdown with my flatmate and her two girls (6 and 2) and it. is. a time. They’re usually really active so to start with the only boardgame in the house is the copy of Guess Who that the 6 year old got for her birthday. Flatmate commented ...
    The little pakehaBy chrismiller
    4 days ago
  • A test of civil society.
    The CV-19 (COVID) pandemic has seen the imposition of a government ordered national quarantine and the promulgation of a series of measures designed to spread the burden of pain and soften the economic blow on the most strategically important and most vulnerable sectors of society. The national narrative is framed ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    4 days ago
  • Life in Lock Down: Day 2
    . . Lock Down: Day 2 – A photo essay with observations . March 27 – Day 2 of our Strange New World. The Park and Ride near my suburb, usually filled with hundreds of vehicles, had just… four; . . Another drive into Wellington City on a highway nearly ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    4 days ago
  • How Do You Feel? What Do You Think?
    Fortune's Children: Under extraordinary pressure, the leader of the Government and the leader of the Opposition will each show us what they are made of. Have they been blessed with intelligence, grace, wit, poise, toughness, empathy and humour – and in what measure? More importantly, to what extent have they ...
    4 days ago
  • Landlords are NOT an essential service
    If you’ve ever had the misfortune of having to rent a property on the open market in New Zealand, which is one of the most expensive in the entire world, you’ll likely be keenly aware of just how arrogant and entitled landlords and their real estate agents can be.Unfortunately for ...
    5 days ago
  • A “new Society” post-COVID19 will definitely emerge. The question is: on what path?
    Society-wise, aside from the specific morbidity shall we say of the medically-oriented aspects of this COVID-19 crisis, what is unfolding before the world is in more than one way an instructive study of humanity and reactions to a high intensity, high stress environment in real time. Friends, we are at ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    5 days ago
  • Raise the Bar: Everything you need to know about the wage subsidy
    Right now low waged and insecure workers are feeling the economic brunt of the looming #Covid19 Recession. In response legal advocate Toby Cooper* and hospitality and worker’s rights advocate Chloe Ann-King, are putting together a series of legal blogs about your employment rights: In this legal blog we outline some ...
    PosseBy chloeanneking
    5 days ago
  • The massacre of prisoners in Modelo jail, Bogota, March 21
    by Equipo Jurídico Pueblos and Gearóid Ó Loingsigh (25/03/2020) An escape plan in question On the night of March 21st and the early morning of the 22nd, the forces of the Colombian state stormed into the Modelo prison in Bogotá, murdering 23 prisoners and injuring 83, in response to the ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    5 days ago
  • We are not America
    When the government banned semi-automatic weapons in response to a terrorist atrocity, gun-nuts were outraged. Mired in toxic American gun culture, they thought owning weapons whose sole purpose was killing people was some sort of "constitutional right", a necessity for "defending themselves" against the government. Now, the Court of Appeal ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • When will we know the lockdown is working?
    Just before midnight on Wednesday March 25, Aotearoa New Zealand entered a countrywide alert level four lockdown. For at least the next four weeks, everyone who isn’t an essential worker is confined to their bubble. We are doing this to stop the explosive growth in people contracting and dying from ...
    SciBlogsBy Siouxsie Wiles
    5 days ago
  • Lock Down: Day 1
    . . Lock Down: Day 1 – A photo essay with observations . Day one of the Level 4 nationwide lock-down (or, DefCon 4 as I sometimes cheekily call it) started at 11.59PM on 25 March. For a moment, most of the nation held it’s collective breath. In that brief ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    5 days ago
  • A Compelling Recollection.
    Broad, Sunlit Uplands: How those words fired my young imagination! Or, perhaps, it is more accurate to say: how those words fused, in my young mind, with the image printed on every packet of Fielder’s Cornflour. Always fascinated by history, especially modern history, I cannot hear Churchill’s wonderfully evocative words, even ...
    6 days ago
  • The Warehouse – where everyone gets a virus
    . . 24 March 2020 9.46AM Number of covid19 cases in Aotearoa New Zealand: 102 . As of 11.59 on Thursday, most of New Zealand will go into “lock down”. People will be expected not to travel to work; not to socialise; and to stay home. I will not be ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    6 days ago
  • Aggressive action to address climate change could save the world $145 trillion
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections A respected research group, Project Drawdown, finds that deploying solutions consistent with meeting the Paris climate targets would cost tens of trillions of dollars globally. But crucially, those outlays would also yield long-term savings many times larger than the up-front costs. The new 2020 Drawdown ...
    6 days ago
  • After the Pandemic
    It will pass. What happens next? Not immediately, but longer term. There are many opinions, fewer certainties. Will it “change everything!” as many confidently, and contradictorily predict? In this post I look at how foresight can help bound some of the uncertainties so you can more objectively consider the future. ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert Hickson
    6 days ago
  • Coronavirus – Cuba shows the way
    We’ve been meaning t write something on Cuba and the coronavirus but have just discovered a very good article on the subject in the US left publication Jacobin.  The article looks at how Cuba, a poor country but one where capitalism has been done away with, is leading the way ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    6 days ago
  • Using privacy law to prevent the death penalty
    In 2018, El Shafee Elsheikh and Alexanda Kotey - two British citizens who had purportedly been stripped of their citizenship by the British government - were captured while fighting for Isis in Syria. The British government then conspired to hand them over to the US, and agreed to provide evidence ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • It’s Time For Disaster Socialism.
    Transformers: The disaster of the Great Depression was transformed into a new and fairer society by the democratic socialism of the First Labour Government. The disaster of the Covid-19 Pandemic offers a similar transformative possibility to the Labour-NZ First-Green Government. Seize the time, Jacinda! You will never have a better ...
    7 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #12, 2020
    Tamper with The System? Well, we already are. But there's a difference between accidentally trickling sand into a precision gearbox versus formulating a plan to alter it on the fly with improvements in mind. One action is more or less innocently unscrupulous, the other amenable to earning an easy ...
    7 days ago
  • Avoidable hospitalisations: Helping our health system get through COVID-19
    Associate Prof George Thomson, Louise Delany, Prof Nick Wilson While it is possible that New Zealand can use intense public health controls to eradicate COVID-19 from the country – we must also plan for other scenarios where thousands of New Zealanders are sick – including many urgently hospitalised.1 Better resilience ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    1 week ago
  • Raise the Bar: 10 questions to ask your employer proposing redundancy
    Kia ora my name is Chloe Ann-King* and I am the founder of Raise the Bar, a campaign and non-profit that gives free legal aid, advocacy and tautoko to hospitality workers in Aotearoa. Right now all over our country hospo workers are being fired at will, having shifts cut or being ...
    PosseBy chloeanneking
    1 week ago
  • An equitable way to support business
    The Herald reports that the government is planning to lend billions of dollars to large businesses to keep them operating during the pandemic. As with mortgage relief, this is necessary: we need companies to stay in business, to reduce the economic damage and help things get restarted again when this ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Hard News: Together Alone
    We're about to do something unprecedented as a nation. We hope that by taking this extraordinary action before a single life in New Zealand has been lost to the deadly novel virus we will save tens of thousands of lives. Our  lives. We'll do it together, in households, in isolation ...
    1 week ago
  • Why timing is everything: ‘A time to refrain from embracing’ starts today
    “There is a time for everything,    and a season for every activity under the heavens.”So writes the author of Ecclesiastes, a book in the Old Testament that’s counted as a ‘wisdom’ book and written as if by an unnamed king of Jerusalem. But who would have thought there would be a time ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    1 week ago
  • Dealing with the Covid-19 Tsunami.
    I was surprised when the prime minister described the Economic Response to Covid-19 package as the ‘largest peacetime government spend in New Zealand's history’. Reflecting – checking through history – I realised that the term ‘spend’ was crucial and the package had no income tax cuts. Even so, it has ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • What about renters?
    The government today announced the latest part of its pandemic relief package: a six-month mortgage holiday for people whose incomes have been affected by the pandemic. Which is great, because these people are going to need help, and that's what the government should be doing. At the same time, it ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Living within our means.
    Years ago the Argentine sociologist Carlos Weisman wrote a book titled “Living within our Means.” It was a critique of Argentine society that focused on the paradoxical question of why, in a land of plenty, there was so much economic instability, inequality, corruption and political turmoil. His conclusion was basically ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 week ago
  • Transparency and the pandemic
    Parliament will be leading by example and adjourning tomorrow after a special sitting to consider an epidemic notice and state of emergency. Day-to-day oversight of the government will be delegated to a select committee. But that's not the only overight mechanism. The OIA will still be law, and (so far) ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • ‘Overjoyed’: a leading health expert on New Zealand’s coronavirus shutdown, and the challengin...
    Michael Baker, University of Otago Overjoyed. That’s not a word epidemiologists normally use, but that’s how I felt after hearing Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s announcement about New Zealand’s COVID-19 shutdown of everything except essential services for at least four weeks from midnight on Wednesday. More than anything, I just ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    1 week ago
  • One way to solve the housing crisis
    How much homelessness is caused by house hoarding? We're about to find out. The pandemic has destroyed tourism, which means that house hoarders who put their hoarded properties up as short-term tourist rentals are now offering them on the ordinary rental market:Property investors are pulling properties from Airbnb to offer ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • The pros and cons of planting trees to address global warming
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Bruce Lieberman It seems like such a simple, straightforward, empowering idea: plant trees – a lot of trees – all over the world, and watch the planet’s temperature fall. Who doesn’t love a tree or two, even far more – the right ...
    1 week ago
  • Not a grand coalition, but a government of national salvation
    According to Newshub, Simon Bridges is open to joining a “grand coalition” with Labour as we hunker down to go into a month long lockdown. The idea is sound. Before now, the role of the opposition was to scrutinise and oppose. In the context of what almost amounts to a ...
    PunditBy Liam Hehir
    1 week ago
  • Raise the Bar: hospitality workers & wage subsidy entitlements
    Kia ora my name is Chloe Ann-King* and I am the founder of Raise the Bar, a campaign and non-profit that gives free legal aid, advocacy and tautoko to hospitality workers in Aotearoa. Right now all over our country hospo workers are being fired at will, having shifts cut or ...
    PosseBy chloeanneking
    1 week ago
  • Lifting our game against COVID-19
    We need to be lifting our game against COVID-19. You and I need to help those working to prevent the spread of COVID-19 while they’re trying to lift the testing and treatment efforts. We don’t want to be playing this game running backwards. Best to play it solidly forward, from ...
    SciBlogsBy Grant Jacobs
    1 week ago
  • The maths and ethics of minimising COVID-19 deaths in NZ
    Prof Tony Blakely, Prof Michael Baker, and Prof Nick Wilson The NZ Government must do more to clearly articulate its COVID-19 strategy: eradication or ‘flattening the curve’ mitigation. But to do so means understanding the maths and ethics of both these strategies. In this blog, we adapt our work for ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    1 week ago
  • All aboard the Covid Train
    A few days ago I was starting to write something about the pandemic, which now seems unconscionable. It took the form of a letter to an agony aunt:“Dear Deidre, I have an ugly confession. I am quite excited by Covid-19.”This is how the piece went:“I’m not a psychopath, honest. Although the ...
    PunditBy Phil Vine
    1 week ago
  • 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #12
    Story of the Week... Toon of the Week... Climate Feedback Article Review... Coming Soon on SkS... Climate Feedback Claim Reviews... SkS Week in Review... Poster of the Week... Story of the Week... In Just 10 Years, Warming Has Increased the Odds of Disasters The likelihood of extreme events ...
    1 week ago
  • We are all socialists now
    Last week, the government announced a $12 billion initial package to support people during the pandemic. Today, the Reserve Bank is buying government bonds - effectively printing money - to keep up the money supply during the crisis. Normally such moves would have the right apoplectic. Instead, the National Party ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • A plea to experts: safeguard your role in public life
    I am a pundit, somebody who opines and comments on the news. There are no real qualifications to punditry though having a rudimentary way with words and good general knowledge helps. That is one reason there is a constant oversupply of would-be pundits and why it is quite hard to ...
    PunditBy Liam Hehir
    1 week ago
  • Enlightenment when?
    I recently encountered the following prescription from a Faculty of Education at a leading New Zealand University. At first I wondered if it was another product of the postmodern generator (http://www.elsewhere.org/journal/pomo/), designed to create gibberish in the postmodern form, but I’m told it is real: The “schooled” society: Towards the ...
    SciBlogsBy Michael Corballis
    1 week ago
  • What the Crisis Can teach Us
    The coronavirus pandemic has of course had a major impact on individual lives and on societies as a whole. But, long after the crisis has passed (assuming it does), we will begin to realise that its real and lasting significance lies in the lessons it has taught us, if only ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • Hammering home measures to stop COVID-19
    COVID-19 has plunged Aotearoa New Zealand (indeed, the world) into territory that, while maybe not totally unprecedented, certainly hasn’t been seen during the lifetimes of most of us here today. Our borders are closed to non-citizens, we’re being told not to gather in groups of more than 500 outside/100 inside, ...
    PunditBy Andrew Geddis
    1 week ago
  • What does ‘level two’ mean – and why does it matter?
    For the last few weeks, I’ve been urging you to prepare yourself, your family, business, and community for Covid-19. Now it’s time for real action.  Yesterday the director-general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield announced another 13 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in New Zealand, bringing our total to date to 52. ...
    SciBlogsBy Siouxsie Wiles
    1 week ago
  • 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #12
    A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week, i.e., Sun, Mar 15, 2020 through Sat, Mar 21, 2020 Editor's Pick Now Isn’t the Time to Forget About Our Climate Change Efforts   Tasha Tilberg, Lindsey Wixson, and Liu Wen photographed ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Is the Guardian becoming  a real newspaper again?
    by Jan Rivers The article has been corrected to show that it was Ewen MacAskill, former Guardian journalist and not Luke Harding who travelled to meet Edward Snowden with journalist Glenn Greenwald and filmmaker Laura Poitras.  Some of the Guardian’s well-known journalists who did not sign the protest letter are ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Life asserts itself regardless
    by Cultural Worker Late March 2020 amidst the virus. With gigs crashing and burning all around it was without much hope that I called a long standing rest home booking: “ Hi, I’m supposed to be entertaining at your place this afternoon – is it still on?” “”If you don’t ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Politics, the possible, and the pandemic
    Whenever people demand real change from their politicians, we're told that "politics is the art of the possible". The implication is that change isn't possible, so we'd better just get used to the sucky status quo. But now that there's a pandemic, a lot of things we were previously told ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago

  • Business Finance Guarantee – applications open
    Businesses can start applying to their banks for loans under the Business Finance Guarantee Scheme set up to support the New Zealand economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. “We’re moving quickly to protect New Zealand businesses, jobs and the economy during this unprecedented global economic shock,” Finance Minister Grant Robertson said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 hours ago
  • Work starts on ways to fast-track consents to boost recovery from Covid-19 downturn
    Work is underway looking at measures to speed up consents for development and infrastructure projects during the recovery from COVID 19, to provide jobs and stimulate our economy.  Environment Minister David Parker said the COVID-19 pandemic is a serious global crisis that will have a wide ranging and lasting impact ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago
  • Advance payments to support contractors
    Advance payments will be made to transport construction industry contractors to retain the workforce and ensure it is ready to quickly gear up to build projects which will be vital to New Zealand’s COVID-19 economic recovery, Transport Minister Phil Twyford announced today. He said keeping the workforce required to build ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    16 hours ago
  • Government seeks infrastructure projects
    The Government has tasked a group of industry leaders to seek out infrastructure projects that are ready to start as soon as the construction industry returns to normal to reduce the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Economic Development Minister Phil Twyford and Infrastructure Minister Shane Jones say. The Infrastructure ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Health system scaled up to prepare for COVID-19
    Work to scale up the health system in preparation for COVID-19 was today outlined by Health Minister David Clark, as he reported back to the new Epidemic Response Committee. “We are well placed to contain the spread of COVID-19. We have taken early and decisive action at our borders, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Essential media COVID-19 guidelines refined
    The Government is refining its COVID-19 essential business guidance to include the distribution of news publications for communities which are hard to reach. The Minister of Broadcasting, Communications and Digital Media, Kris Faafoi, said the move was in recognition of the importance for New Zealanders who might be harder to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • New Zealand defence personnel conclude mission at Taji
    Following the successful conclusion of the Building Partner Capacity (BPC) mission at Taji, New Zealand defence personnel are returning to New Zealand from Iraq, in accordance with the Cabinet decision made in June 2019, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters and Defence Minister Ron Mark announced today. “New Zealand is very ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • State of National Emergency extended
    The State of National Emergency to help stop the spread of COVID-19 has been extended for a further seven days, Minister of Civil Defence Peeni Henare said. The initial declaration on March 25 lasted seven days and can be extended as many times as necessary. “Since we went into isolation ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Strong Govt books support ‘go hard, go early’ response
    New Zealand’s ability to go hard and go early in the fight against COVID-19 has been underpinned by strong Government finances and the growing economy heading into this global pandemic, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. The Treasury today released the Crown financial statements for the eight months to the end ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Christchurch Hospital Hagley ICU to open to support COVID-19 response
    Health Minister Dr David Clark says 36 new intensive care beds at Christchurch Hospital’s new Hagley building are being fast tracked so they are available for treatment of COVID-19 patients.   The Ministry of Health is working with contractor CPB and Canterbury DHB to enable access to the hospital’s ICU, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government supports Air NZ freight flights
    The Government has fast-tracked up to $1 million to help Air New Zealand move urgent freight to and from New Zealand, with the first flight to Shanghai leaving tonight, Transport Minister Phil Twyford announced today. Phil Twyford says it’s crucial that trade in vital goods such as medical supplies and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Tariff concessions on COVID-19 related products
    New Zealand will temporarily remove tariffs on all medical and hygiene imports needed for the COVID-19 response. Trade and Export Growth Minister David Parker and Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Kris Faafoi said today that the New Zealand Customs Service will apply tariff concessions to all diagnostic reagents and testing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Clarification of modification to wage subsidy scheme
    Minister of Finance Grant Robertson has clarified that the changes to the wage subsidy scheme announced yesterday mean that employers should be passing on the full subsidy to workers, except in the case where the person’s normal income is less than the level of the subsidy. “We still want employers ...
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    4 days ago
  • Face masks flowing to DHBs
    Medical face masks from the national reserve supply are now being distributed to District Health Boards, while at the same time local production is being ramped up. Yesterday more than 640,000 masks were sent to DHBS – that is an immediate two week supply, with more to follow in coming ...
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    5 days ago
  • COVID-19: Further steps to protect New Zealanders’ jobs
    The Government has made modifications to the wage subsidy scheme to ensure people don’t lose their jobs during the national lockdown. These changes will soften the impact of COVID-19 on workers, families and businesses, and position them to exit the lockdown and look to recovery, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. ...
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    5 days ago
  • Tax relief for Mycoplasma Bovis farmers
    Farmers whose herds were culled in response to the outbreak of Mycoplasma bovis will be able to minimise the tax treatment of their income in some circumstances. Revenue Minister Stuart Nash says Cabinet has agreed to change the law. It means farmers may be eligible to spread their income over ...
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    5 days ago
  • $27 million for NGOs and community groups to continue providing essential services
    A $27 million dollar package, effective immediately, is being provided to social sector services and community groups to ensure they can continue to provide essential support to communities as we stay at home as a nation to stop the spread of COVID-19, Minister for Social Development Carmel Sepuloni announced. “At ...
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    6 days ago
  • Statement on guilty plea of March 15 terrorist
    “The guilty plea today will provide some relief to the many people whose lives were shattered by what happened on March 15,” Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said. “These guilty pleas and conviction bring accountability for what happened and also save the families who lost loved ones, those who were injured, ...
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    6 days ago
  • COVID-19 updates
    The Prime Minister is holding daily press conferences to update New Zealanders on the Government's response to COVID-19. Links to videos and transcripts of these updates below. These transcripts also include All of Government press conferences led by Director Ministry of Health's Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield. 25 March: Live update from the Prime ...
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    6 days ago
  • Police numbers break through 10,000 mark
    Frontline Police numbers have broken through the 10,000 mark for the first time in history as officers step forward to keep the community safe during the COVID19 lockdown. “Two Police graduations in Auckland and Wellington in the past week have been conducted in unprecedented circumstances,” Police Minister Stuart Nash said. ...
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    6 days ago
  • Urgent tax measures for economic recovery
    Urgent legislation has been passed to support the package of economic and social measures needed to recover from the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. “The COVID-19 Response (Taxation and Social Assistance Urgent Measures) Bill will cushion New Zealanders from the worst economic impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak,” said Revenue Minister ...
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    1 week ago
  • Further support for farmers and growers as drought persists
    From tomorrow, Government support for farmers and growers affected by drought will be expanded and extended across the country, with access to Rural Assistance Payments (RAPS) available throughout the North Island, parts of the South Island and the Chatham Islands, Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni announced. “These challenging conditions have ...
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    1 week ago
  • COVID-19: Temporary changes to Education Act
    Parliament has passed amendments to legislation that give the Secretary of Education stronger powers to act in the fight to limit the spread of COVID-19, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “They are part of a suite of changes passed under the COVID-19 Response (Urgent Management Measures) Legislation Bill,” Chris ...
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    1 week ago
  • Canada, Australia, Chile, Brunei and Myanmar join NZ and Singapore in committing to keeping supply a...
    Canada, Australia, Chile, Brunei and Myanmar have joined forces with New Zealand and Singapore by committing to keep supply chains open and remove any existing trade restrictive measures on essential goods, especially medical supplies, in the face of the Covid-19 crisis.  Trade and Export Growth Minister David Parker today welcomed ...
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    1 week ago
  • COVID-19: Rent increase freeze and more protection for tenants
    Immediate freeze on rent increases Tenancies will not be terminated during the lock-down period, unless the parties agree, or in limited circumstances Tenants who had previously given notice can stay in their if they need to stay in the tenancy during the lock-down period Tenants will still be able to ...
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    1 week ago
  • Working together to protect businesses and workers
    As New Zealand unites to lock-down in the fight against COVID-19, the Finance Minister is urging all businesses and workers to stay connected over the next four weeks. “We understand the extreme pressure many businesses are under right now. I know most business owners think of their workers as family ...
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    1 week ago
  • State of National Emergency declared to fight COVID-19
    A State of National Emergency has been declared across the country as the Government pulls out all the stops to curtail the spread of COVID-19. “Today we put in place our country’s second ever State of National Emergency as we fight a global pandemic, save New Zealanders’ lives and prevent ...
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    1 week ago
  • Prime Minister’s statement on State of National Emergency and Epidemic Notice
    Mr Speaker I wish to make a Ministerial Statement under Standing Order 347 in relation to the recent declaration of a State of National Emergency. Having considered the advice of the Director Civil Defence Emergency Management, the Minister of Civil Defence declared a State of National Emergency for the whole of ...
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    1 week ago
  • Deadline for domestic travel extended
    People needing to travel on domestic flights, trains and Cook Strait ferries to get home before the country moves into level 4 lock-down tomorrow night will be able to continue using the passenger services until midnight on Friday, Transport Minister Phil Twyford said today. Domestic passenger services, particularly ferries, have ...
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    1 week ago
  • Mortgage holiday and business finance support schemes to cushion COVID impacts
    The Government, retail banks and the Reserve Bank are today announcing a major financial support package for home owners and businesses affected by the economic impacts of COVID-19. The package will include a six month principal and interest payment holiday for mortgage holders and SME customers whose incomes have been ...
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    1 week ago
  • Government working to keep air freight moving
    Minister of Transport Phil Twyford has today announced details of the Government’s support package to keep key air freight moving and ensure New Zealanders retain access to essential goods during the four-week level 4 lockdown. “The Government is working with airlines and air freight operators to ensure New Zealand’s key ...
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    1 week ago
  • New Zealand moves to COVID-19 Alert Level 3, then Level 4 in 48 hours
    New Zealand moved up to COVID-19 Alert Level 3 – Restrict New Zealand to move up to COVID-19 Alert Level 4 – Eliminate, in 48 hours Two-staged approach to give people and businesses time to prepare  Level 3, from tomorrow Non-essential businesses must close All events and gatherings must be ...
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    1 week ago
  • Prime Minister: COVID-19 Alert Level increased
    Good afternoon  The Cabinet met this morning to discuss our next actions in the fight against COVID-19.  Like the rest of the world, we are facing the potential for devastating impacts from this virus. But, through decisive action, and through working together, do we have a small window to get ...
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    1 week ago
  • Govt takes significant economic decisions as NZ readies for Alert Level 4 in COVID-19 fight
    The Government is announcing significant further support for the economy, workers and businesses as the country unites to prepare for Alert Level 4 in the fight against COVID-19. Cabinet today agreed to remove the cap on the Government’s wage subsidy scheme, which will inject a further $4 billion into the ...
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    1 week ago
  • Govt backs RBNZ move to support economy with lower interest rates
    The Government is backing the Reserve Bank’s latest action to support the economy by reducing longer-term interest rates, meaning lower costs for businesses and mortgage holders, and a lower currency to help our exporters. The Minister of Finance has signed a memorandum of understanding and a letter of indemnity with ...
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    1 week ago
  • Government statement on commercial cooperation during COVID-19
    The Government has asked the Commerce Commission to take account of the exceptional circumstances created by COVID-19 when monitoring business behaviour in coming weeks.   “The purpose of my request to the Commerce Commission is to make sure businesses can work together in ways that will allow them to provide ...
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    1 week ago
  • New Zealand temporarily closes diplomatic posts in Barbados and Myanmar due to COVID-19
    The New Zealand Government has temporarily closed its High Commission in Bridgetown, Barbados and its Embassy in Yangon, Myanmar due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.   “Due to the increasing scarcity of air links in and out of Bridgetown and Yangon, and the pressure COVID-19 is placing ...
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    1 week ago
  • Supporting Māori communities and businesses through
    Associate Health and Whānau Ora Minister Peeni Henare has today announced the Government’s plan to support Māori communities and businesses in the face of COVID-19. “Our Government’s $12.1 billion economic package will help many Māori whānau, workers and businesses, whether it’s through wage subsidies, income support and worker redeployment, or ...
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    1 week ago
  • Guidelines for hospitality establishments released
    The Government and the hospitality industry have worked together to produce guidelines to assist with managing and reducing transmission of COVID-19, Health Minister David Clark announced today.  The guidelines developed between the Government, Hospitality New Zealand and SkyCity Entertainment Group, set out how the new restrictions on physical distancing and ...
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    2 weeks ago
  • Nation steps up to COVID-19 Alert Level 2
    Four stage Alert System for COVID-19 announced New Zealand moved up to COVID-19 Alert Level 2 – Reduce Contact New Zealanders over 70 and those with certain medical conditions told to stay at home as much as they can to reduce risk of contact with the virus Workplaces to implement ...
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    2 weeks ago