Supercity: Who’s gonna vote?

Written By: - Date published: 2:30 pm, February 23rd, 2010 - 21 comments
Categories: auckland supercity, john banks, len brown, local body elections - Tags: , , , ,

John ‘Mayor for Remuera’ Banks has released a poll showing him dead even with Len Brown in the race to be supermayor. Banks’ team are trying to spin it by putting out a press release saying he’s in front (which oddly doesn’t contain head-to-head figures) but given Banks has much higher name recognition at the moment – it’s unsurprising that he’d top an unprompted poll.

The interesting numbers come from the prompted head-to-head question (as the voting paper would have them). The poll is different to previous UMR polls giving Brown a lead (although this Buzz poll for Herald on Sunday collected responses until the start of Feb and it had Brown 33.6%, Banks 21.2%, neither 25.8%, not sure 19.4%).

Banks’ team are like sugar-hyped puppies with the news he’s not trailing behind. They hope it might put to bed persistent rumours of other potential rightwing candidates emerging. He’s had a huge amount of media coverage from jumping on any issue that comes along, is trying unsuccessfully to change his image (remember Banks said, “If I wear my policy on my sleeve, I won’t get elected”) and has had a popular issue to campaign on (even though, oddly, he championed the whole thing before losing his leadership mettle and has now flip-flopped completely). Nonetheless, even with his huge name recognition, he’s only level with Brown.

Interestingly, David Farrar’s poll has been weighted so that ‘responses reflect turnout for the 2007 local govt elections. In other words, the proportion of responses from one particular territorial local authority is approximately the same proportion of votes cast in that TLA, as a share of the entire region.’

This highlights the importance of turnout at this year’s election. Looking at the four main centres we saw mayoral turnout figures in ’07, ’04 and ’01 of (respectively) North Shore 35/35/38%, Auckland City 40/47/43%, Waitakere 38/36/38% and Manukau 39/40/37%.

So what might happen this year? Looking back prior to the last time central government forced local bodies to amalgamate in 1989 (causing the same kind of interest and controversy), voting turnout had dropped away to 46%. After the amalgamation, turnout jumped to 57% and then increased to 61% after the introduction of postal voting. The average has now dropped back to 44%.

Does this mean we will see the same kind of increase in turnout this year? History suggests yes, but it remains the big unknown. Meanwhile agitation about the forced supercity changes continues unabated. Phil Twyford blogs and the Herald reports about many of the sincere average Aucklanders speaking passionately and angrily to the select committee about what’s happening to their community. Twyford’s also talked about hundreds and hundreds of angry Aucklanders turning up to public meetings to express their frustration at being ignored by the government. Recently 6,000 people signed a petition in northern Rodney to stay out of the supercity.

Auckland City Council undertook polling that showed support for the supercity declines the further from the CBD you go from 46% positive in Auckland City vs 30% negative, through to 70% and 66% negative feelings in Franklin and Papakura respectively (Manukau saw 49% negative, Waitakere 45% negative, Rodney 44% negative). The Herald on Sunday’s polling showed 56.9% would choose to remain with the existing eight councils, while 43.1% would opt for change.

Banks is intimately associated with negativity to the supercity changes. He’s pushed, championed and crowed about the supercity. Concern in the region is based on a knowledge that if he gets in all the money and power will flow to the CBD. If Brown can positively capitalise on this strength of feeling, which is what his message seems to be targeting, then he could carry a lot of voters around the region.

Interestingly the Herald on Sunday also said 72% of those polled are planning to vote because of the reforms indicating people are going to act on their feelings. Brown is in a strong position to convince ‘his’ supporters in Manukau to come out and vote for him and I suspect turn out will jump as they back ‘their man’ verse Banks. Brown also seems to be capitalising on that ‘us’ verse ‘them’ support right around the region. He’ll need to keep building his profile, produce attractive policy and work on turning out his vote.

21 comments on “Supercity: Who’s gonna vote? ”

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  1. Peter 1
    23 February 2010 at 2:50 pm

    My Mother used to listen to “banksie” on Radio Pacific, i think it was… His homophopic rants are still as fresh in my mind as ever, God knows why anyone would vote for this un reconstructured dinosaur is beyond me.

    He, like Paul Holmes seems to suffer from short man disease…..

    • the pinkpostman 1.1
      23 February 2010 at 3:27 pm

      Ranting is a bit mild Peter However I can’t think of a better word,
      I well remember his outburts at Helen Clark calling her Miss 2% and other more insulting remarks. Aucklanders vote for him at their peril .They need to be reminded of his racist ploy with mate John Carter over the “HONE’ incident on his talkback show. And now the Banks Rightwing cabal have been caught out over the Michelle Boag con. Is this what Aucklanders want for their Mayor and Super City Council? I think not.

  2. the pinkpostman 2
    23 February 2010 at 2:51 pm

    Im not from Auckland ,but of course I’m interested in seeing a Left-Wing
    candidate elected . Perhaps not coming from Auckland enables me to see how Rightwinger Banks is hogging the press. I have noticed that over the last few weeks his photo’s have been numerous .The Sunday -Times pullout is becoming a Banks photo album. If the left is to win Auckland ie.Mayor and Council they need to start publicity now!. Also lets have some co-operation with the Left-Wing parties which means Labour,Greens and the Alliance . A win for the

  3. gitmo 3
    23 February 2010 at 3:23 pm

    Who gives a fuck, whoever gets in nothing will change.

    They’ll sit in their comfy council buildings gorging on the ratepayers and travelling to multitudinous sister cities and continue to put our rates up on a yearly basis on pox on all their houses regardless of whether you view them as left or right.

  4. Zaphod Beeblebrox 4
    23 February 2010 at 4:13 pm

    I’d much prefer John spend his time letting us know his position on something that really matters, like the fact that 54% of our rates are to be controlled by one of the appointed CCOs. Who knows what the other six CCOs are going to grab.

    Instead of standing up for our interests he spends his time putting our press releases on every popularist issue that apears and getting his photo in the social pages.

    He’ll be a good figure head but don’t expect him to get involved in public policy.

  5. tc 5
    23 February 2010 at 4:50 pm

    If John banks is the answer then the question’s far to simple ….a shithouse mayor who’s derailed numerous civic projects around public transport etc, a useless MP who retired once he could collect a full pension, a homophobic racist on air in his talkback days (which never ended in his world) a complete bufoon time and again as recently as the closing bars at 11PM fiasco where he shafted Aaron Bagman once he realised the publicity backlash.

    Thinking’s not one of his strengths nor behaving himself when his bluff’s called….all style no substance…..just like our beloved PM.

    • Peter 5.1
      24 February 2010 at 7:39 am

      No competent Mayor would have let Aaron Bagman off the leash, his whole proposal was truly bizarre…But it shows all too well that the Cit-Rats and their fellow travellers are well out of touch with reality….And I grew up in Remuera 🙁

  6. uroskin 6
    23 February 2010 at 5:05 pm

    The power of the CCOs will be so pervasive one has to wonder what those Auckland Councillors and the Super Mayor will actually do all day long.
    Here on Waiheke the anti-mood is huge too

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