A point on the long wait

Written By: - Date published: 10:48 am, November 3rd, 2023 - 32 comments
Categories: act, election 2023, national, nz first, Politics, winston peters - Tags: ,

Today we will get the final election counts. It will now include the estimated special declaration vote of 567,000 (20.2% of the vote) to count including and estimated 80,000 overseas and dictation votes. This can change the precise balance in parliament and in electorate seats with small margins. The provisional results had the NAct coalition teetering on a majority. Including the specials is likely to teeter them to need another coalition partner or a confidence and supply agreement to secure a reliable majority.

NZ First appears to be the most likely partner for NAct. It is hard to see any other party that National would try to do a coalition or confidence and supply arrangement with.

Problem is that Act and NZ First are not exactly political buddies and have no history of working together. It is likely that NZ First effectively excluded Act from the governing coalition in 1996.

The last time that National were in a coalition with NZ First was in 1996-1998. 1998 was when the National PM Jenny Shipley sacked Winston Peters and then appeared to have engineered or at least taken advantage of a split inside NZ First. Since then National and Act have spent decades vilifying NZ First, most notably in 2008 when Act brought a parliamentary privileges action against NZ First over donations by Owen Glenn.

This political history matters. It is evident to anyone who has read social media over decades that National and Act members as well as MPs regard Winston Peters and NZ First as being some epitome of terrible politics for them – especially after each time they went into a coalition with Labour. I have had decades of cleaning out defamatory and false statements of fact in comment from this site.

This all points a problematic coalition arrangement even before you start looking at grand-standing pre-election statements by Act leader David Seymour.

The talent in the National caucus isn’t exactly experienced nor particularly competent at based on their pre-election screwups. It will be the most inexperienced lineup that National has ever put into government.

Their leader is about to become a second term MP with no experience of being a minister of the crown. The deputy is about to become third term MP with no ministerial experience. Their front-bench lineup is filled with a few of the more incompetent ministerial talent of the Key governments like Judith Collins (dumped by John Key as minister multiple times), and Gerry Brownlee who was never notable for his competence even before trying to rebuild Christchurch.

I suspect we are going to have several weeks of chaos getting a governing coalition followed by a coalition that will be the epitome of incompetent chaos and infighting. It will be great for a political blog of the left. Not that good for the country.

Evidently I am not alone in this view. In a September poll.

The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll asked voters “Which potential coalition of parties do you think would be more chaotic?”.

Forty per cent said National-Act-NZ First was the most chaotic, while 35 per cent thought Labour-Green Te Pati Māori were more chaotic.

Fourteen per cent of people thought both were equally chaotic.

Women were slightly more likely than men to think National would lead the more chaotic coalition, splitting 44-35 in favour of National.

Men were more evenly split, dividing 37-35 in favour of National being the most chaotic.

NZ Herald: “Election 2023: Voters think National-Act-NZ First is a ‘coalition of chaos’ – poll“

32 comments on “A point on the long wait ”

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  1. Belladonna 1
    3 November 2023 at 11:13 am

    It's not uncommon for leaders to have no Ministerial experience. Although less common for them to be relatively new to Parliament.

    However, John Key was only in his third term when National won in 2008. So there is some history of this working for National.

    When Labour/NZF formed a coalition in 2017 – there were a number of the front bench with no Ministerial experience: Ardern, Robertson, Hipkins, Wood, Woods, etc.

    Indeed, Peters touted himself as bringing a much-needed level of experience in government to the coalition.

    • lprent 1.1
      3 November 2023 at 11:23 am

      It’s not uncommon for leaders to have no Ministerial experience. …. there were a number of the front bench with no Ministerial experience:

      Sure. You expect a new incoming government to not have much governing experience. That is a trait of having relatively long stays in opposition. What you expect to find is a cadre of people with ministerial, deputy minister or even secretary level experience to form a experience kernel to develop from.

      That is what is notably lacking. Why do you think I pointed out the piss-poor quality of the ex-ministers that they do have.

      Of course NZ First would not only bring in experience of Winston Peters, but also that of Shane Jones. I’m not sure that the latter is the type of experience you’d want to transmit. The STD of politics.

      • Belladonna 1.1.1
        3 November 2023 at 11:42 am

        Apart from Parker (with a problematic history under Clark) and Mahuta, I'm struggling to think of any of the 2017 Labour front bench who had any level of Ministerial, deputy ministerial or secretary level experience. Indeed, most of them first came into Parliament during Key's government – so that developing that level of experience would have been impossible.

        If you think that cadre is important, then Collins and Brownlee would provide that. Much though you clearly dislike both of them, there is no denying that they are experienced Ministerial survivors. Goldsmith (Mr invisible) also has ministerial experience, as do Mark Mitchell & Todd McClay.

        I really don't think 'experience' is a stick that you can beat the National Party with. Competence, regardless of experience, is another matter…..

        • Craig H 1.1.1.1
          3 November 2023 at 2:26 pm

          Damien O'Connor was the other 2017 Labour minister with previous experience (Ruth Dyson had experience as well but wasn't a minister).

  2. Anne 2
    3 November 2023 at 11:14 am

    … a coalition that will be the epitome of incompetent chaos and infighting. It will be great for a political blog of the left. Not that good for the country.

    Yes. It is the one redeeming feature of the election outcome. There will be so much to enjoy, ridicule or rip apart. I especially look forward to Luxon's sloganeering attempts every time he's cornered or doesn't know how to answer tough questions. Even his most ardent admirers will start having doubts.

  3. tsmithfield 3
    3 November 2023 at 11:16 am

    Lprent, I hope that the government is a bit less chaotic than you are predicting. And some would argue that NZ First moderated some of Labour's more extreme ideas. And this could be why many voted NZ First this time around. I think there was tactical voting going on by some Labour voters who saw their best way to influence the direction of the government was to vote NZ First since it seemed that Labour had little chance.

    But, the situation you describe is really just the sort of outcome that MMP allows for. Given that, it seems we could have more chaotic governments in the future. So, if we don't want chaos, should we be looking at modifying MMP to prevent that sort of outcome?

    • lprent 3.1
      3 November 2023 at 11:34 am

      I think that a lot of the voting for NZ First from those on the left side were of the poisoned chalice type to bring about exactly the coalition result that is likely to form.

      Certainly I know quite a quite extraordinary number of left leaning floating voters who tactically voted for NZ First. Their stated intention was specifically to make sure that the Act influence was diluted, and to try to ensure that National and Luxon were going to be easy to besmirch. The expressed intent was to cause a single term National government.

      That particular political trend seemed to have had a coalescence in the last 2-3 weeks of the campaign. It is going to be fascination to see if that shows up in Jack Vowles Election Studies for the 2023 election.

    • Ghostwhowalks 3.2
      3 November 2023 at 11:39 am

      Its a worldwide thing – drift of voters to smaller parties- so not unique to NZ. And no it doesnt
      need guided democracy changes to MMP.

      The only changes should be

      1) The candidate death before polling should mean 119 seats are allocated from the party vote , not a overhang created

      2) Party vote threshold shouldnt be 5% but instead the % that will give a viable 'party' in parliament which I think is 5 MPs and thats something 4.4% but determined during the counting – as the amount will vary depending on how many votes that arent meeting threshold

      3) The electorate win shouldnt coattail extra Mps from the party vote

  4. Bearded Git 4
    3 November 2023 at 11:19 am

    Sounds like a recipe for a one-term government-I live in hope.

  5. Sanctuary 5
    3 November 2023 at 11:31 am

    A nightmare scenario would be the confirmation of a National-ACT government that would then – in conjunction with the foreign cash that has poured into their coffers and the those of the likes of the TPU – use the stoking of internal divisions (treaty referendum, war on the gangs, reproductive rights, persecution of trans people, and any other culture war they can drum up) to mask a Pinochet lite agenda.

  6. observer 6
    3 November 2023 at 11:34 am

    If we look at the history of MMP governments, after the first one in 1996 (when everyone was still learning how to make it work), each subsequent gov't has started with a reasonable level of good faith. Including the ones with Winston, or National plus Maori Party.

    Stress: started. In government, things can change, and did.

    I don't think there's ever been a more toxic relationship at the start of a governing arrangement than between Seymour and Peters (if that's what we get). It's very personal for both men.

    • Belladonna 6.1
      3 November 2023 at 11:55 am

      I agree that there is substantial amounts of friction (putting it politely) between Seymour and Peters.

      In 2017, this was avoided by the Greens agreeing to give confidence and supply to the Labour/NZF coalition, and have ministerial portfolios outside government.

      I really can't see this happening this time (either NZF or ACT agreeing to c&s).

      Although, I'm perfectly prepared to be wrong….

  7. Ad 7
    3 November 2023 at 11:38 am

    Without any desire to defend NZFirst, in 2017 they sure showed they knew what they wanted, and got it in writing pretty fast. Their wins for the MFAT, Defence, and regional development budgets were massive and were delivered.

    What I'm worried about is Seymour's Cabinet position and who gets Finance, Deputy Finance, Revenue, and State Services. Also how fast they change the Reserve Bank governors. Too much change in those posts too fast will spook credit rating agencies as well as citizens whose savings are not protected by trusts.

    For small party leaders generating stable and effective government, I will miss the equanimity and dogged cross-party skill of Shaw the most.

    • Ghostwhowalks 7.1
      3 November 2023 at 11:49 am

      Cant change the Reserve Bank Governor, as Orr was reappointed at the end of 2022 for another 5 years.

      Its how the NZRB is supposed to work, entrenched position for Governor and not a job for the whim of a minor party to decide. Seymour is just virtue signalling to his donors

      • lprent 7.1.1
        3 November 2023 at 12:03 pm

        More likely in the Public/State Services Commission where the Commissioner position is going to be open in Feb.

        You can see that flowing through in the attacks on the Public Service in the election campaign because it was going to be a cheap first 100 days win for an incoming coalition.

      • Belladonna 7.1.2
        3 November 2023 at 12:11 pm

        Orr was reappointed at the end of 2022 for another 5 years.

        I don't think that Orr is at all popular with National, either.

        https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/478300/national-shocked-by-reappointment-of-reserve-bank-governor-adrian-orr

        And, while he can't be fired, they could probably make him uncomfortable enough to quit.

        Not saying this is going to happen, or be a desired outcome, but it could be a possibility.

        • Drowsy M. Kram 7.1.2.1
          3 November 2023 at 1:00 pm

          "It could be a possibility", and a first for a reserve bank governor or chief cashier to quit due to political pressure, so if Orr chose to quit then that would be of interest.

          https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/education/our-history/chronology-of-reserve-bank-governors

        • Ghostwhowalks 7.1.2.2
          3 November 2023 at 1:13 pm

          Make things 'difficult' ?. Silly speculation

          The Governor reports to the Board of the RB not the Minister of Finance and can only be removed by cause – which are specified in the RBNZ Act

          Even RB board members can only be removed 'with cause'

        • Phil 7.1.2.3
          6 November 2023 at 7:21 pm

          I don't think that Orr is at all popular with National, either.

          Political parties across the entire spectrum have a long and proud tradition of ragging on the RB Governor whenever it's politically relevant to do so. There are reasonable criticisms you could make of Orr's style and management philosophy, but in terms of actual interest rate decisions it's very hard to see how a different leader at the RB would have taken the country down a substantially different route over the last 5 years.

          The RB has a really good working relationship with almost all political parties – they regularly offer and give briefings to party leaders and their finance teams after MPS and FSR releases. Quite infamously, NZF is the only party that does not take up the offer.

    • lprent 7.2
      3 November 2023 at 11:57 am

      2020 was a case where the political policy overlap between the Greens and NZF weren't that great. The Greens and NZF aren't looking at the same voting communities. The NZF MFAT and defence refocus positions were pretty close to Labour ones and of less interest to the Greens. Ron Mark in particular was a good fit for defence.

      That compatibility can't be said about the electoral policy positions between Act and NZ First. They spent a lot of time fighting for the same groups of populist edge policy voters in the lead up to the election. Both need those voters to maintain themselves over 5% in future elections. That tussle will carry on over into coalition arrangements.

      Both have significant policy differences to National in different areas. The three-way tussle is likely to be be hard.

      Especially since the 9% and 6.5% of Act and NZF respectively are relatively close, and Act dropped from polling months prior to election day from ~12%, and NZF rose from ~3%. There was a pretty clear shift of 'protest' votes from Act to NZF.

      I agree about Shaw (and the Greens) on their cross-party techniques. If National had any sense they'd figure out a way to use that expertise. However I suspect that would lose them support amongst some of their more intransigent voter communities. I don't think that Luxon in particular has the political backbone to achieve that.

  8. SPC 8
    3 November 2023 at 2:22 pm

    Still canna find anything about final results at the EC site – how do media get anything?

    Greens at 11.6% – best ever result.

    • Ghostwhowalks 8.1
      3 November 2023 at 2:23 pm

      Look under Vote NZ

      Four electorate results have changed since election night:

      Labour candidate Rachel Boyack has won Nelson with a majority of 29 votes over the National candidate Blair Cameron.
      Labour candidate Phil Twyford has won Te Atatū with a majority of 131 votes over the National candidate Angee Nicholas.
      Te Pāti Māori candidate Takutai Tarsh Kemp has won Tāmaki Makaurau with a majority of 4 votes over the Labour candidate Peeni Henare.
      Te Pāti Māori candidate Mariameno Kapa-Kingi has won Te Tai Tokerau with a majority of 517 over the Labour candidate Kelvin Davis.

  9. observer 9
    3 November 2023 at 2:28 pm

    Popcorn, and more popcorn, and keep it coming!

    Just about everything National didn't want to happen, has happened.

    Not great for Labour to lose two Maori electorates (i.e. lose list MPs) but retirements should see those list candidates arrive in 2024.

    Stand by for complaints from the usual suspects about the overhang, and the Maori seats. Luxon would do well to ignore them, as Key did before him. We'll see.

    • Anne 9.1
      3 November 2023 at 2:46 pm

      There will be recounts – in particular Tamaki Makaurau -so the seat allocations could still change but not enough to change the nature of the incoming government. The arrival of 6 TPM MPs will shake things up in the debating chamber. That will be a welcome positive.

      • SPC 9.1.1
        3 November 2023 at 3:01 pm

        A change (TPM loss) would take it to NACT 60 of 122 with he who decides 8 and 2040 future LGTPM 54.

    • newsense 9.2
      3 November 2023 at 9:47 pm

      Were National and ACT holding coalition negotiations without NZ First while waiting for the votes?

      Who would have thought that Peters might take ACT seriously when they said they wouldn’t sit at the cabinet table with him?

      Peters was listening when when everyone was slagging him off in the final week?

      That Luxon and co would be happy dumping on the public servants for not doing things as fast as would be convenient for them with special votes, only to turn around and be open ended with their negotiation time table?

      Will someone in Labour make some mischief making phone calls to Winston Peters? It seems possible to form a government without the largest party. If they are representing their voters they should be pursuing this chance.

      Certainly this should be happening and perhaps isn’t because you need to have a legislative programme before you can have handbrakes on it…and Hipkins is already the Labour handbrake and drifting expert…

      Still the Jones boy reforming the Supermarket Duopoly one duel at a time seems more likely with the Labour right than the National liberal lot.

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