Luxon slumps in latest Colmar Brunton poll

57 comments on “Luxon slumps in latest Colmar Brunton poll ”

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1. Anne 1

   13 March 2023 at 6:32 pm

   With the Maori Party there is now a way for the west to retain power.

   ? 😉

   [Oops I meant left!. Will correct – MS!]
2. observer 2

   13 March 2023 at 6:39 pm

   Thank goodness the National Party has no understanding of the blindingly, toe-curlingly obvious … and it's been obvious for many months:

   .https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-26-07-2022/#comment-1902150

   “I think it’s highly likely Luxon will be replaced before the election. Sure, people can say “no, not another change”, but it would be a worse mistake to persist with somebody so ill-suited for the job, so out of his depth.”

   (see dozens of similar comments, not just from me but by anyone who's … awake?).

   To repeat my earlier prediction: Nicola by May.
   • weka 2.1

     13 March 2023 at 6:46 pm

     hope not.
     • Drowsy M. Kram 2.1.1

       13 March 2023 at 6:56 pm

       Me too; and Judarth before him. If only Judarth were still at the helm, instead of being just the Nats spokesperson for Science Innovation and Technology, Foreign Direct Investment, Land Information, and Digitising Government.
3. Robert Guyton 3

   13 March 2023 at 6:50 pm

   The Luxon Slump – it's a thing.
   • Tricledrown 3.1

     13 March 2023 at 11:11 pm

     phallus head may need a little Blue pill to resurrect his electable dysfunction
4. Drowsy M. Kram 4

   13 March 2023 at 6:51 pm

   Interesting – if (and, like all polls, it's a big 'if') this was to be the result after election day, and if (not such a big if) Te Pāti Māori at least held on to Waiariki, then might it give the redneck NAct MPs and their campaign managers pause for thought? Time will tell.

   New ACT Party policy branded 'divisive' and 'bigoted' by Māori Party
   [24 March 2022]

   In New Zealand, Māori co-governance is already underway – referendum or not [23 April 2022]]

   Greens pull Three Waters support, citing lack of protection against privatisation [8 December 2022]

   The political debate National and Labour can’t agree on [6 February 2023]
   Labour and National’s leaders came to Waitangi agreed on which areas need more investment in election year. But as political editor Jo Moir writes, the country is going to see a big debate on how Māori should benefit from it
5. AB 5

   13 March 2023 at 7:00 pm

   The person with some explaining to do is Farrar. The Roy Morgan had the Greens on 12% and this one has them on 11%. Farrar's Curia poll of a few days ago has them dropping to under 6%.

   My impression is that Morgan usually has the Greens too high, but Farrah has got the Greens’ direction of travel completely wrong. The charitable interpretation is that Farrar's poll is a rogue or it has a methodological error of some sort. Other, less charitable, explanations are also possible.
   • Barfly 5.1

     13 March 2023 at 7:11 pm

     "Other, less charitable, explanations are also possible." I would bet on that.
   • Graeme 5.2

     13 March 2023 at 8:02 pm

     I have done one of those surveys. The questions are loaded and difficult not to answer in favour of the right.

     it takes a bit of thinking to understand the question’s and not give the answer thats wanted.

     taxpayer Curia polls are a fucking rort.
     • Peter 5.2.1

       13 March 2023 at 8:22 pm

       I have been to the same movie as you with Curia. You say "it takes a bit of thinking to understand the questions and not give the answer that's wanted."

       I distinctly remember thinking (and wanting to say) "You can't ask me that, like that. it's not scientific."
       • Frank Macskasy 5.2.1.1

         13 March 2023 at 9:54 pm

         If that's true, Peter (and I'm not saying it's not), David Farrar had best be careful. It's only a matter of time before they inavertantly phone a journalist who realises there's a story in this.

         Aotearoa is a small place and damned hard to keep political secrets hidden.
   • Bearded Git 5.3

     14 March 2023 at 8:37 am

     Farrar always has an agenda. His Green poll numbers will have been doctored to give the media the headline "Greens close to crashing out" which RNZ was dumb enough to use in its bulletins on the Farrar poll.

     Meanwhile Farrar made comments on RNZ's The Panel (see my post a few days ago) supporting the Israeli law changes that emasculate the Israeli Supreme Court and bolster the current right-wing extremist government. These changes have led to some of the biggest protests ever seen in Israel-Farrar was spectacularly wrong again…or is he in the pocket of the Zionists?.

     https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-64929563
     • lprent 5.3.1

       14 March 2023 at 11:02 am

       I do remember the all-expenses paid trip that Cameron Slater appeared to have to Israel. I also remember the pro-Israeli government propaganda that preceded and followed by both him and the Spanish bride on Whaleoil. From my reading of it, I took from it that the Slaters were fully into a genocide program against all Palestinians.

       It wouldn't surprise me that the largess that provided him with that trip was spread more widely.
       • Bearded Git 5.3.1.1

         15 March 2023 at 1:14 pm

         Interesting. I think we should be told.

         Surely Farrar reads TS?
6. woodart 6

   13 March 2023 at 7:11 pm

   too me, the big take is the rise in the green vote. the changing climate is going to be the big factor in the election, as pretty much everybody(even maureen) now realise the obvious, and most kiwis are thinking green. even the rednecks. water quality and the threat of privatisation has also made many think green. bad health and bad weather turns everybody socialist.
7. newsense 7

   13 March 2023 at 7:11 pm

   By that polling, not counting whatever rump is in Labour, that’s 48% of the country for doing nothing about climate change.

   And the current PM has just canceled parts of the successful clean car scheme and other things, so it is difficult to call Labour votes pro-climate action votes.

   So we’ve whittled down our climate response to will we follow the ACT line and leave everyone affected to the mercy of the insurance companies or after each event, will we continue trying to throw whatever cash can be freed up at the problem?

   Our biggest ever cyclone and rain fall and the result is about 4% for the Greens, maybe.

   What a waste that 100% pure branding was! 100% equity loss, 100% road closures…we’ll give a couple of bucks to an appeal, but stop driving an urban tank or even mildly support cyclists or find a farming leader who’ll tell farmers they should be part of the solution…

   That’s some sad polling.
   • observer 7.1

     13 March 2023 at 7:40 pm

     It's not that bad. The same poll shows climate change as issue no. 2 for voters (cost of living is top, as expected). So it's above e.g. crime, despite all the negative headlines.
     • newsense 7.1.1

       14 March 2023 at 3:07 am

       But what does climate change as an issue mean here?

       There’s a huge difference between will I get bailed out if trouble hits which is a massive climate change concern, to will I support expensive (but comparatively cheap) infrastructure and lifestyle changes necessary to reduce the future impact of climate change. We’re not remotely on track to meet our obligations climate wise.
8. Robert Guyton 8

   13 March 2023 at 7:55 pm

   Seems like a mash-up. Perhaps we'll emerge, butterflies??
9. tsmithfield 9

   13 March 2023 at 8:10 pm

   I know that National has dropped a bit. But would Labour really be that happy about the result? After all, they have had a popular change of leader, and all the media attention with the recent flooding etc. So, maybe they would have been looking for more of a gap than that. Because it is still very close with the election quite awhile away.
   • Robert Guyton 9.1

     13 March 2023 at 8:35 pm

     Nah. Luxon's deflating and out of puff.
     • Kat 9.1.1

       13 March 2023 at 8:43 pm

       The next real leader of the National party has not landed yet…….
       • Robert Guyton 9.1.1.1

         13 March 2023 at 8:54 pm

         Stuck at the jaw-oiling stage? Still needing some gloss applied to those dead-fish eyes?
         • Stuart Munro 9.1.1.1.1

           14 March 2023 at 9:57 am

           The Bene Tleilaxu always struggled with eyes – I'm sure the vats are brimming with promising new gholas already.
     • Tricledrown 9.1.2

       13 March 2023 at 11:26 pm

       Chriscialus Luxon is suffering from premature electoral popularity now his peak popularity has past. National may have to abort this leader and find another who is not a christian brother.National voters may vote Labour again to keep the greens and the Maori party out in the cold.
   • lprent 9.2

     14 March 2023 at 11:25 am

     But would Labour really be that happy about the result?

     The resting state of the nation has been to be finely balanced between progressive and conservative for pretty much since 1996 (the exception being 2020 during the pandemic). That is the benefit of not being able to gerrymander electorates to get the (usually) National result wanted.

     Most coalitions have been a matter of just a 1-4 seats in majority. There have been a few cases like the 47th parliament in 2002 where it could have been closer to 8 with the non-coalition support of the Greens. But mostly just a few parliamentary seats in it.

     But what is interesting with all polling is the trend. It has been uniformly against Labour and for a National coalition since the 2020 election. Now it isn't…

     
     It hit the usual middle steady start last year for a close race between Labour and National.

     Same on the bloc side
     

     So yeah – this is good news for progressives. It means that a conservatives coalition is looking less likely in October at present.

     You can't look at the numbers directly – you look at trends. BTW: That wikipedia page is excellent and up to date.
     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election
10. tWiggle 10

    13 March 2023 at 8:45 pm

    Luxon tries for gravitas, trips over himself, and comes off as a snoozey bore.
    • Tricledrown 10.1

      13 March 2023 at 11:32 pm

      The disingenuous way Luxon reined in the fing useless Maureen Pugh made him look like a complete tool.
11. Thinker 11

    13 March 2023 at 8:50 pm

    Just had a look at the trends for the 2020 election as a comparison (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election)

    Around this time in 2020, Simon Bridges was still leader and the Nats replaced him with Muller in May. Muller was replaced by Collins in July but in hindsight that was because of Muller's health issues. But, it shows they would be prepared to do a leadership switch even as close to election date as May – June, if it made sense. But, who would they replace Luxon with? My guess would be Paul Goldsmith, but Michael Woodhouse is the Shadow Leader. Or, they could try to take advantage of Jacinda being replaced by a male and put up Nicola Willis as an attempt at a Jacinda-style leadership.

    I still think, however, that National's biggest hurdle is its behind-the-throne leadership. In my opinion, ever since Simon Bridges, each National leader has reflected more the ageing-boomer image than someone who will enter parliament after election night, roll up their sleeves and get things done for the people of this country. I've suggested before that Luxon seems to be trying to appeal to National party leadership than the swinging voters. If National's leadership replace Luxon with another person who continues that trait, they might as well keep Luxon.

    But all is not roses for the left. At this time in the last election cycle, Jacinda was above 40% popularity and it just went up from there. It looks good for Hipkins, but we are still far off another result like in 2020.
    • observer 11.1

      13 March 2023 at 9:01 pm

      They should replace Luxon of course, but it's not just who, it's how.

      2017 worked for the (then) opposition because Little chose to quit. 2020 didn't work because Bridges was knifed. Party united vs party divided, total contrast.

      Willis will probably oust Luxon, but it would be far better for National if Luxon "did an Andrew Little". Given all we know about his inflated self-regard, not much chance of that.
      • woodart 11.1.1

        13 March 2023 at 9:52 pm

        yes, luxon is only there because he was promised leadership .
      • Thinker 11.1.2

        13 March 2023 at 10:00 pm

        Observer your "…doing an Andrew Little" comment made me laugh. Before Andrew Little, we boys' school pupils were brought up on the phrase "…doing a Captain Oates", in reference to Scott's ill-fated 1912 south pole expedition.

        We were encouraged to learn from his brave sacrifice that was the only possible chance his companions had of survival. In adulthood, however, we learn that he was so riddled with frostbite he must have known death was not far away and he probably did what he did just to rid himself of a painful end.

        It made me imagine the National Party caucus inside their tent as the blizzard of unpopularity rages outside, their icy, frostbitten fingers clutching the latest Colmar Brunton poll that points to their inability to reach election base camp and to their being doomed to endure the frosty poll results until their final, misty breaths. Somewhere in the corner (yes, I know its a circular tent) kneels Judith Collins, deep in prayer, just in case TV1 is nearby.

        Suddenly, Captain Luxon stands up and opens the tent flap "I am going outside" he says "And I may be some time"…

        
        • Mac1 11.1.2.1

          14 March 2023 at 9:22 am

          Great extended image, Thinker.

          I thought yesterday of the remaining National caucus members who, facing the prospect of another three years outside the tent in the blizzard eating corned beef and biscuit whilst looking in at the feasting, slink away to their places under post-political corporate board tables and gnaw on the bones tossed to them.
        • AB 11.1.2.2

          14 March 2023 at 10:54 am

          "I am going outside" he says "And I may be some time"

          I wouldn't expect such spare, clean language from Mr Luxon. Something more like this perhaps:

          "Hey look, what I'm saying is that all the indicators are going in the wrong direction, we need to power up our strategic thinking and deliver. We need to rationalise our human resources in line with weather conditions and future high-probability scenarios so that we are all delivering value in ways that are aligned to the vision we have for hard-working polar explorers keeping more of their own lives and getting ahead. As a former CEO I am unequalled in my humility concerning the superiority of my talent for making hard decisions, cutting out waste and delivering. I am optimising the value chain by shrinking it across multiple cost-time dimensions operationally. This takes effect – immediately. Goodbye."
          • Mac1 11.1.2.2.1

            15 March 2023 at 2:28 pm

            Brilliant, AB. Can you do the accent as well?
      • Drowsy M. Kram 11.1.3

        13 March 2023 at 10:13 pm

        The anointed one [1 December 2021]
        There's a new face at the head of the National Party – but he's the fifth new face since John Key resigned five years ago. Is his the one that will stick?

        During that time [as CEO of Air NZ] he [Luxon] formed a relationship with John Key.

        Luxon had Sir John in his camp for this leadership bid and was guiding him, and although Key wouldn’t have been working the phones, he didn’t need to – party members knew.

        Backing a losing flag is one thing, but to oust Luxon would be to admit Sir John backed the wrong man, and that's gonna hurt at least some of the party faithful.
      • Robert Guyton 11.1.4

        14 March 2023 at 9:08 am

        "The only person within National capable of challenging Luxon, Nicola Willis, rates just one per cent in the poll behind even Jacinda Ardern, who is on two per cent. That would indicate that a challenge to Luxon is highly unlikely.

        Continue reading at https://www.politik.co.nz/no-more-time-for-words-hipkins-becomes-action-man/ | Politik"
        • Incognito 11.1.4.1

          14 March 2023 at 9:54 am

          No, it doesn’t quite work that way. Hipkins is a fine example of an enormous boost in ‘preference’ after becoming Leader.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election#Preferred_prime_minister

          However, any aspiring leader would want their name on the board of the ‘sexy six’ in order to enjoy the free media exposure
    • lprent 11.2

      14 March 2023 at 11:57 pm

      2020 was a pandemic election, and the population voted for the government who hadn't screwed up a existential challenge. We're unlikely to see that again for a while.

      2017 was kind of weird as well. That was "thank a deity, they've given me someone I can vote for".
12. Frank Macskasy 12

    13 March 2023 at 9:50 pm

    National must be wondering what to do with Christopher Luxon. As leader it is clear that he is not up to scratch, people do not like him and do not trust him.

    For god sakes, let's do everything in our power to keep him in place!

    Our last undercover operative, JC, was uncovered and dumped! Let's not repeat that mistake.

    Simply put, Luxon is our best chance to keep Nats/ACT out of power. Let's not stuff this one up.
    • Thinker 12.1

      13 March 2023 at 10:17 pm

      Disagree.

      If I was a one-man selection panel, I'd replace the Luxon-Willis ticket with Sam Uffindell and Maureen Pugh.
      • Roy Cartland 12.1.1

        13 March 2023 at 11:24 pm

        +100

        The fucking useless perverts. As described by their own. Perfect.
      • woodart 12.1.2

        14 March 2023 at 12:08 am

        +100 from me. perfect combination. covers all the nat fan groups.
      • Tony Veitch 12.1.3

        14 March 2023 at 10:52 am

        No, I rather fancy the Nataliban: Simeon Brown and Chris Penk!
      • Frank Macskasy 12.1.4

        14 March 2023 at 10:59 pm

        “If I was a one-man selection panel, I’d replace the Luxon-Willis ticket with Sam Uffindell and Maureen Pugh.”

        One can but dream…
        • lprent 12.1.4.1

          14 March 2023 at 11:59 pm

          I'm not sure that I'd like the Act vote to grow that high..
          • Maurice 12.1.4.1.1

            15 March 2023 at 5:37 am

            Indeed – the mutter 'Electorate vote National party vote ACT' is growing by the day in Pubs outside the main centres

            The National Party may not last for much longer at this rate!
13. Frank Macskasy 13

    13 March 2023 at 9:57 pm

    On the issue of the Greens, it's worth noting that overseas Kiwis casting Special Votes usually favour the Green Party. They almost always gain one MP after "Specials" are counted, and National and/or Labour lose one.

    I'd always add an extra percentage point to whatever polling figures show, or on election night.
14. observer 14

    13 March 2023 at 10:57 pm

    Kantar/TVNZ really should explain their numbers here. There's a big discrepancy between the party vote total (which gets to 100% once you add in all the 1% parties) and the preferred PM numbers, which leave around 40% unaccounted for. What did those respondents say?

    It's seriously misleading – unprofessional, even – to eliminate "don't knows" on one measure but then include them on the other. Apples and oranges.
    • Incognito 14.1

      14 March 2023 at 9:30 am

      33% answered Don’t know if there’s anyone they’d prefer as PM.

      https://www.scribd.com/document/631200489/March-2023-1News-Kantar-Public-Poll-Report-Day-1

      [this initial link no longer works – Incognito]
      • Anne 14.1.1

        14 March 2023 at 5:21 pm

        "33% answered Don’t know if there’s anyone they’d prefer as PM."

        Doesn't surprise me.

        Half of them have probably heard the name "Chris Hipkins" for the first time and no nothing about him.

        The other half fell for the anti-Ardern line and now she's gone they don't know either.

        It doesn't bode well for Luxon that so many no longer know.
        • SPC 14.1.1.1

          14 March 2023 at 5:46 pm

          The Know Nothing Party

          The best known of these nativist groups came to be called the American Party, and its adherents as Know-Nothings. The aim of the Know-Nothing movement was to combat foreign influences and to uphold and promote traditional American ways.

          The no Zealand Party …

          James Bond’s Epic Battle with Self Doubt and Doctor No

          They chose to start the film series with the book with the simplest narrative storyline.
        • Incognito 14.1.1.2

          14 March 2023 at 6:03 pm

          Blast! My Previous link got deleted:

          The document March_2023_1News Kantar Public Poll Report Day 1 has been deleted.

          New updated link: https://www.scribd.com/document/631263164/1News-Kantar-Public-Poll-Report-March-2023
15. Powerman 15

    14 March 2023 at 1:02 pm

    Well, that made Mutch Mckay's eyes pop out, she is finding it increasingly difficult to spin the polls to suit National.
16. observer 16

    14 March 2023 at 3:26 pm

    There are more MPs lining up to defend Luxon in just one article than there were for Ardern in 5 years.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/485945/national-mps-defend-luxon-over-falling-popularity-i-see-the-man-that-you-don-t-see

    Usual rule applies: if you have to keep saying there's no issue with the leadership, there's obviously an issue with the leadership.
17. SPC 17

    14 March 2023 at 4:20 pm

    This is an easy MMP election to call.

    First the history

    1996. Winston divides the opposition vote and keep National in power (a good man returns to his roots and then gets shafted and learns his lesson).

    1999. Change after 3 terms.

    2002. The left falls apart and there is Labour coalition with the sensible centre United.

    2005. WP goes with the largest party (Labour 41-39 over National), once again enabling a third term government (as in 1996).

    2008-2014. Change after 3 terms. National is narrowly again and again the only party capable of forming a government (playing off ACT and MP to reduce their influence).

    2017. Change after 3 terms. WP this time gets involved in the formation of a new government (on balance the need for a change to more economic justice for workers and more public funding – such as PGF).

    2020. One party government enabled by centrists to block a Labour-Green coalition. The rejection of NZF resulting in WP determining not to support Labour again.

    2023. The most likely outcome is a minority government.

    WP will not back a NACT coalition. Nor form one with ACT. He is then reduced to supporting National with confidence and supply and leave ACT no option but to do the same.

    So either this has a majority, or it does not.

    If not, then Labour can form a minority government with confidence and supply from Green and the MP. This allows the new PM to cast it as him and Luxon, Labour or National. If WP neutralises ACT extremism, Labour will have to be precise as to how a coalition (with Greens and MP) would govern, or operate as a minority government.

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