A missing NZ Herald poll?

Written By: - Date published: 1:54 pm, October 23rd, 2008 - 23 comments
Categories: election 2008, polls, rumour - Tags: ,

Now I’m not one to gossip (well, not too much) but in the last few days I’ve heard from several people that the NZ Herald has held back an opinion poll. Why might they do this? Well perhaps it’s related to NZ First apparently polling over 5%. That could really set the cat amongst the pigeons. Meanwhile according to Ali Akram this morning the TV3 poll is out tonight.

Nb: The last published poll from the NZ Herald was back in September.

Update: They’ve found it again – but clearly it’s different beast to what was on the rumour circuit!

23 comments on “A missing NZ Herald poll? ”

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  1. Lew 1
    23 October 2008 at 2:07 pm

    Apocryphally, I’ve heard that the October 2006 One News poll being withheld from publication resulted in John Key rolling Don Brash as National leader.

    The source (an academic who I know of, but don’t know personally) says he overheard a senior One News political journalist on the phone to his producer, who was telling him that Brash had made a big boost in the Preferred PM stakes, where previously Key had closed on him. The journalist allegedly said he didn’t believe the result and wanted it checked before it would go to air. The poll didn’t make the 6 o’clock news, apparently has still not been published, and a few weeks later Key replaced Brash.

    Note that I don’t claim this as the full truth, or even the partial truth. I’m sure it’s more complicated than it seems, and there’s also a counterfactual inherent in the story. But it’d be interesting to know the full skinny. Interested to see if anyone can dig up the October 2006 One News poll (I can’t, with a cursory google).

    L

  2. bobo 2
    23 October 2008 at 2:43 pm

    Can the Herald headline today of more NZers leaving than ever be viewed as a Nats press release and why wasn’t the article a few weeks ago showing stats of record numbers leaving Australia given as much front page prominence ?

  3. Chris G 3
    23 October 2008 at 2:50 pm

    good point bobo,

    Adding to that: In the Otago Daily Times the record numbers leaving Aussie (Highest percentage going to NZ) made page 5 and it was barely a column.

    But whaleoil etc will tell you its the ‘liberal media’ …. Riiiiiight.

  4. Lampie 4
    23 October 2008 at 2:53 pm

    “Can the Herald headline today of more NZers leaving than ever be viewed as a Nats press release and why wasn’t the article a few weeks ago showing stats of record numbers leaving Australia given as much front page prominence ?”

    know what you mean

  5. Steve Pierson 5
    23 October 2008 at 2:54 pm

    and why do they always acted amazed that when we have a record population there is a record number of people migrating? All things being equal, that is exactly what one would expect to happen

    There is a migration cycle and, as we have shown in the past, this current cycle is well within historic norms in terms of % of the population emigrating.

  6. relic 6
    23 October 2008 at 2:59 pm

    Well the Roy Morgan and TV3 polls of several weeks back that showed Labour/Greens resurgent did not make the Herald front page either. Polls make the running as well as describe it. The Herald ran just about any poll with good numbers for National as a news story over the last year or more.

  7. Lampie 7
    23 October 2008 at 3:07 pm

    Period Net gain or loss from total migration Net gain or loss from permanent and long-term migration(1)
    Series ref: EMI S3ZA S3E

    Month of September
    1998 3,931 -271
    1999 11,140 308
    2000 -9,532 812
    2001 10,687 3,512
    2002 15,889 4,419
    2003 14,699 3,702
    2004 13,867 2,165
    2005 -10,591 1,952
    2006 -1,708 2,662
    2007 -3,035 2,241
    2008 1,943 1,706

    Year ended September
    1998 -6,980 -3,863
    1999 268 -10,544
    2000 -18,917 -9,528
    2001 34,334 -1,691
    2002 73,313 37,110
    2003 51,166 40,437
    2004 7,307 17,757
    2005 -15,081 6,405
    2006 23,331 13,200
    2007 11,095 8,309
    2008 21,282 4,403

  8. Lew 8
    23 October 2008 at 3:08 pm

    relic: Well, there is more news value in `Opposition looks likely to unseat government’ than in `Government looks likely to retain power’. One is change. One is stasis.

    L

  9. Lampie 9
    23 October 2008 at 3:11 pm

    darn

    year, second figure is Net gain or loss from total migration, third is Net gain or loss from permanent and long-term migration

    i.e. 1998 3931 -271

  10. Tim Ellis 10
    23 October 2008 at 3:13 pm

    I’m not sure what the exact timing of the polls is, but I keep a fairly close record of it. By my reckoning the Herald Poll is generally monthly and should be due out at the end of this week. The Roy Morgan poll was a week late two weeks ago, (probably scheduled to be), but there should be a new one out this week. This is normally published on a Thursday or a Friday.

    The last TV3 poll (normally monthly) appeared two weeks ago. They may have shifted to fortnightly polling for the last few weeks of the election. If there is one this week, then they would probably have their last poll out a few days before election day, which would make sense.

    I very much doubt though that any media organisation is withholding poll results. They normally hold the poll for a day or two before it’s published to get political reaction, and to avoid competing polls coming out on the same night.

  11. Ianmac 11
    23 October 2008 at 3:13 pm

    And remember the thing we mentioned on another post.”Given that National is going to win by a landslide, or so the polls have said for over a year, and yet growing numbers are exiting NZ! Wot!! They should be flooding in at the prospect- shouldn’t They?”
    Anyway I love NZ. Like my Mum I wouldn’t swap her for any other! So those who bad-mouth our country and our democratically elected leadership, let me help you buy a ticket. NZ is great!

  12. Lampie 12
    23 October 2008 at 3:18 pm

    And remember the thing we mentioned on another post.’Given that National is going to win by a landslide, or so the polls have said for over a year, and yet growing numbers are exiting NZ! Wot!! They should be flooding in at the prospect- shouldn’t They?’

    All us lefties leaving no doubt 🙁

  13. insider 13
    23 October 2008 at 3:29 pm

    Didn’t we have this same story a week or two ago about TV3 holding back a poll to recheck it? Sounded like conspiracist rubbish then and still sounds like that. The Standard’s writers’ former assiduous attention to polls seemed to evaporate over the weekend when two major ones were issued. What happened there? Oh that’s right, you were ‘busy’…

  14. randal 14
    23 October 2008 at 3:35 pm

    who cares about the polls anyway. Labour will win going away and the only thing National will beat home is the ambulance.

  15. Scribe 15
    23 October 2008 at 6:24 pm

    Can the Herald headline today of more NZers leaving than ever be viewed as a Nats press release and why wasn’t the article a few weeks ago showing stats of record numbers leaving Australia given as much front page prominence ?

    Um, bobo, check the paper’s masthead. It’s called The New Zealand Herald, not The Australia Herald.

    Want the number of people on Australia’s waiting lists and Australian decisions on xenotransplantation on the front page of The New Zealand Herald as well?

  16. Lampie 16
    23 October 2008 at 6:29 pm

    Want the number of people on Australia’s waiting lists and Australian decisions on xenotransplantation on the front page of The New Zealand Herald as well?

    be better reporting than the crap we have here

  17. Scribe 17
    23 October 2008 at 6:35 pm

    Well, that’s a different discussion, Lampie 😉

    BTW, the TV3 poll has come out. The poll has National on 45 and Labour on 37, which is exactly where I’ve predicted they would be on polling day (not that anyone listens).

    Has the Greens on 8+, meaning National vs Labour/Greens is all tied up, though ACT/UF give the centre/right a slight edge.

    Maori Party, with these numbers, would indeed be kingmakers.

    Still 16 days to go, though, so things could go either way a couple of times yet. And this poll may not be all that accurate. Who knows?

    16 intriguing days ahead. Put on your cycle helmets!

  18. Scribe 18
    23 October 2008 at 6:38 pm

    For those who missed the cycle helmets allusion, see here: http://www.stuff.co.nz/thepress/4737003a24035.html

  19. Lampie 19
    23 October 2008 at 6:43 pm

    Well, that’s a different discussion, Lampie

    yeap, too much opinionated crap.

  20. gobsmacked 20
    23 October 2008 at 7:34 pm

    From NZPA:

    A new opinion poll has fired up the election campaign, showing Labour and the Greens closely matching National and its right-wing partner ACT.

    TV3’s poll results, released tonight, mean neither of the main parties would have a majority in a 123-seat Parliament and the Maori Party would be in a position to decide which of them formed the next government.

    The Greens continued the steady gains they have posted in recent polls, climbing to 8.8 per cent support which would give them 11 seats in Parliament.

    Add those to Labour’s 47, put in Jim Anderton, and the centre-left would have 59 seats.

    National, ACT and United Future’s Peter Dunne would make up 60 seats.

  21. burt 21
    23 October 2008 at 7:35 pm

    Lampie

    “Can the Herald headline today of more NZers leaving than ever be viewed as a Nats press release”

    If National had a policy to drive people out of NZ then yes it could – but as we have had 9 years of Labour govt… Sorry it’s an advertisement for Labour party policies – specifically low rich prick tax thresholds and low wages.

    ianmac said;

    So those who bad-mouth our country and our democratically elected leadership, let me help you buy a ticket. NZ is great!

    Democratically elected – that is very very funny. Come on ianmac, Labour are NZ’s first retrospectively validated govt. Helen Clark is NZ’s first retrospectively validated PM.

    Retrospectively validating for allegedly breaking electoral funding laws and to shut down a court case and ‘democratically elected’ are mutually exclusive.

  22. appleboy 22
    23 October 2008 at 8:16 pm

    That the Herald is withholding a poll should be a news report in itself by TV1/ TV3/National Radio – that is pure deception and bias in its most blatant.

  23. NeillR 23
    24 October 2008 at 7:02 am

    Doesn’t look like withholding to me
    Caution: may cause watering of the eyes to left-leaning supporters.

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