Bugger the polls
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10:13 am, June 29th, 2009 - 34 comments
Categories: labour, mt albert, national, polls -
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With every new cock-up or dereliction of duty from this Key government, righties point to the Roy Morgan polls and say ‘seems the voters don’t care’. It’s true that National is still polling around 50% in the Roy Morgan and parties’ internal polls. Yet the old hands in the Left aren’t too worried. Short of Key punching a Kiwi live on TV, they don’t expect much to seriously hurt National’s polling just yet.
Voting is a bit like buying a car. Pride is on the line. You’re making a defining statement about yourself to yourself and others that you can’t undo in the short-term. You’re stuck with the decision you made for three years, what’s the point in admitting a mistake years before you can do anything to correct it? Even if you realise deep down that you aren’t happy with what you got, it takes time until you’re ready to admit you made the wrong choice (especially when you were warned), which means the polls take time to turn.
So a clever political party plays a three year strategy. The first year is about showing that Key has feet of clay and, hopefully, giving him some concrete boots to go with them. The second year is about establishing Labour as a government-in-waiting and Goff as future PM. The third year is about presenting a refined vision and policies, giving voters an alternative to more failed government by National.
All Labour needs to do is run National close. A dead-heat at 40% will do, a lead all the better.
That’s far from impossible. Labour managed over 41% for three successive elections from 1999 to 2005. It just has to regain the votes of the 6% or so who went over to National last time but voted Labour the previous three times. Right now, National is giving those voters every incentive to switch back. It won’t happen overnight but if Labour continues to play it smart and National continues to play it incredibly stupidly there’s every chance that those voters will switch back to Labour in time for 2011. Mt Albert has given renewed Labour activists’ faith in themselves. After losing electorates over the last few terms, they now know they can take National on head-to-head and win.
Last year, we heard plenty from these voters (‘I’ve always voted Labour but the Smacking Bill/lightbulbs/showerheads was the last straw). In 2011, we’ll be hearing them say ‘I voted for Key to give him a chance but he hasn’t delivered’ and Labour will know they’re in with a good shot.
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- Release: Progress on climate will be undone by GovtNew Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Dark day for Kiwi kids as a third of Govt cuts affect themNews that 1000 jobs at the Ministry of Education and Oranga Tamariki could go is devastating for future generations of New Zealanders. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Alarm as Government signals further blow to school lunchesMore essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...2 weeks ago
- Oranga Tamariki cuts commit tamariki to state abuseTe Pāti Māori is disgusted at the confirmation that hundreds are set to lose their jobs at Oranga Tamariki, and the disestablishment of the Treaty Response Unit. “This act of absolute carelessness and out of touch decision making is committing tamariki to state abuse.” Said Te Pāti Māori Oranga Tamariki ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Quick, submit – stop Govt’s dodgy approvals billThe Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...2 weeks ago
- Government throws coal on the climate crisis fireThe Government’s policy announced today to ease consenting for coal mining will have a lasting impact across generations. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Public transport costs to double as National looks at unaffordable roading project insteadCancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Cost of living in Auckland still not a priorityA laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...3 weeks ago
- Te Pāti Māori to visit Queensland to strengthen ties with Māori in AustraliaTe Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi, and Mema Paremata mō Tāmaki-Makaurau, Takutai Tarsh Kemp, will travel to the Gold Coast to strengthen ties with Māori in Australia next week (15-21 April). The visit, in the lead-up to the 9th Australian National Kapa haka Festival, will be an opportunity for both ...3 weeks ago
- Decision allows for housing growth in Western Bay of Plenty
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...12 hours ago - Speech to New Zealand China CouncilThank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...15 hours ago
- Modern insurance law will protect Kiwi householdsThe Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...1 day ago
- Government recommits to equal payThe coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...1 day ago
- Transforming how our children learn to readStructured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...1 day ago
- NZ not backing down in Canada dairy disputeTrade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...2 days ago
- Stronger oversight for our most vulnerable childrenThe rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...2 days ago
- Streamlining Building Consent ChangesThe Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...2 days ago
- Minister acknowledges passing of Sir Robert Martin (KNZM)New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...2 days ago
- Speech to New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Parliament – Annual Lecture: Challenges ...Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...2 days ago
- Accelerating airport security linesFrom today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...2 days ago
- Community hui to talk about kina barrensPeople with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...3 days ago
- Kiwi exporters win as NZ-EU FTA enters into forceKiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...3 days ago
- Mining resurgence a welcome signThere are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...3 days ago
- Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill passes first readingThe return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...3 days ago
- Government to boost public EV charging networkEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...3 days ago
- Residential Property Managers Bill to not progressThe coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...3 days ago
- Independent review into disability support servicesThe Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...4 days ago
- Justice Minister updates UN on law & order planJustice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...4 days ago
- Ending emergency housing motels in RotoruaThe Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...4 days ago
- Trade Minister travels to Riyadh, OECD, and DubaiTrade Minister Todd McClay heads overseas today for high-level trade talks in the Gulf region, and a key OECD meeting in Paris. Mr McClay will travel to Riyadh to meet with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). “New Zealand’s goods and services exports to the Gulf region ...4 days ago
- Education priorities focused on lifting achievementEducation Minister Erica Stanford has outlined six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system that sets Kiwi kids up for future success. “I’m putting ambition, achievement and outcomes at the heart of our education system. I want every child to be inspired and engaged in their learning so they ...4 days ago
- NZTA App first step towards digital driver licenceThe new NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) App is a secure ‘one stop shop’ to provide the services drivers need, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Digitising Government Minister Judith Collins say. “The NZTA App will enable an easier way for Kiwis to pay for Vehicle Registration and Road User Charges (RUC). ...4 days ago
- Supporting whānau out of emergency housingWhānau with tamariki growing up in emergency housing motels will be prioritised for social housing starting this week, says Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka. “Giving these whānau a better opportunity to build healthy stable lives for themselves and future generations is an essential part of the Government’s goal of reducing ...4 days ago
- Tribute to Dave O'SullivanRacing Minister Winston Peters has paid tribute to an icon of the industry with the recent passing of Dave O’Sullivan (OBE). “Our sympathies are with the O’Sullivan family with the sad news of Dave O’Sullivan’s recent passing,” Mr Peters says. “His contribution to racing, initially as a jockey and then ...4 days ago
- Speech – Eid al-FitrAssalaamu alaikum, greetings to you all. Eid Mubarak, everyone! I want to extend my warmest wishes to you and everyone celebrating this joyous occasion. It is a pleasure to be here. I have enjoyed Eid celebrations at Parliament before, but this is my first time joining you as the Minister ...5 days ago
- Government saves access to medicinesAssociate Health Minister David Seymour has announced Pharmac’s largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff. “Access to medicines is a crucial part of many Kiwis’ lives. We’ve committed to a budget allocation of $1.774 billion over four years so Kiwis are ...5 days ago
- Pharmac Chair appointedHon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...6 days ago
- Taking action on Fetal Alcohol Spectrum DisorderHundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says. “Every day, ...7 days ago
- New sports complex opens in KaikoheRegional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...7 days ago
- Diplomacy needed more than everForeign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges. “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...7 days ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address, Buttes New British Cemetery BelgiumAmbassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service. It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...1 week ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address – NZ National Service, Chunuk BairDistinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...1 week ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address – Dawn Service, Gallipoli, TürkiyeMai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia. Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...1 week ago
- PM announces changes to portfoliosPaul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...1 week ago
- New catch limits for unique fishery areasRecreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...1 week ago
- Minister welcomes hydrogen milestoneEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...1 week ago
- Urgent changes to system through first RMA Amendment BillThe coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...2 weeks ago
- Overseas decommissioning models consideredOverseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...2 weeks ago
- Release of North Island Severe Weather Event InquiryEmergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...2 weeks ago
- USP Council votes to bring controversial VC back to Fiji
Council members voted 21 to 4 in favour of Ahluwalia returning to the Laucala campus following a much-awaited meeting in Vanuatu this week. It comes as USP and its two unions — the Association of the University of the South Pacific Staff (AUSPS) and the Administration and Support Staff Union ...22 mins ago - Public health expert urges govt to focus on disease prevention
The government needs to step up in the wake of a report showing a third of Kiwis have unmet health needs, Professor Boyd Swinburn says. ...5 hours ago - Figures like Andrew Tate may help spread misogyny. But they’re amplifying – not causing – the ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicola Henry, Professor & Australian Research Council Future Fellow, Social and Global Studies Centre, RMIT University Shutterstock Following an emergency meeting of the National Cabinet this week, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced a raft of measures to tackle the problem ...5 hours ago
- Free speech debate back on as Victoria University expands diversity on panelA perceived right-wing bias and concerns about panellist diversity have pushed Victoria University to reformat its debate. ...5 hours ago
- Week in Politics: Polls, pay rises and a Green MP in troubleAnalysis - A poll showing the opposition is more popular than the government raises questions, politicians go through their 'trial by pay rise' and a Green MP loses her cool in the debating chamber. ...7 hours ago
- Māori win customary title over Tokomaru Bay on East Coast
The entire stretch of Tokomaru Bay on the East Coast will be subject to a joint customary marine title for two hapū, and extending up to four miles out to sea. A High Court judge has found the two groups, who during the case settled a dispute over boundaries for ...7 hours ago - Universal’s music is returning to TikTok, ending a spat that hurt fans more than anyoneSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Hall, Lecturer, Media & Cultural Studies, Edith Cowan University A longstanding feud between TikTok and Universal Music Group seems to have finally reached an end, with both parties signing a deal that will see Universal-backed music returned to the social media ...7 hours ago
- To tackle gendered violence, we also need to look at drugs, trauma and mental healthSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Siobhan O’Dean, Postdoctoral Research Associate, The Matilda Centre for Research in Mental Health and Substance Use, University of Sydney After several highly publicised alleged murders of women in Australia, the Albanese government this week pledged more than A$925 million over five years ...7 hours ago
- National raised $10.4m in donations in 2023Political parties have now fully disclosed the donations they received last year - with National getting more than double the cash of any other party. ...7 hours ago
- Don't 'mistake' Pacific leaders 'quietness' on AUKUS as support for NZ'...A Pacific regionalism expert has called out New Zealand's Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters for withholding information from the public on AUKUS military pact. ...8 hours ago
- Florist says Julie Anne Genter exchange was 'massive imbalance of power'The Wellington woman says she felt degraded and humiliated after being confronted by the Green MP. ...8 hours ago
- China’s new Moon mission is about to launch, and it’s a rare example of countries working togeth...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard de Grijs, Professor of Astrophysics, Macquarie University Bruno Scramgnon/Pexels All systems are “go” for tonight’s launch of China’s next step in a carefully planned lunar exploration program. Placed on top of a powerful Long March 5 rocket, the Chang’e 6 ...8 hours ago
- National returned $200,000 donation day after Newsroom storyNational returned a massive donation the day after a Newsroom story linked the donors to a property being investigated for operating unlawfully as a migrant workers’ hostel. The party’s 2023 donation filings, released on Friday, show it returned a $200,000 donation from Buen Holdings on August 23. That was the ...8 hours ago
- NZ slumps to 19th as RSF says press freedom threatened by global declinePacific Media Watch New Zealand has slumped to an unprecedented 19th place in the annual Reporters Without Borders World Press Freedom Index survey released today on World Press Freedom Day — May 3. This was a drop of six places from 13th last year when it slipped out of its ...8 hours ago
- Access to documents about Australia’s political history is fraught and inadequate. It needs to cha...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joshua Black, Political Historian and Administrator Officer, Australian Historical Association, Australian National University Australia has had its fair share of public record-keeping controversies in recent years. Some have been mere farce, as in the case of two formerly government-owned filing cabinets (containing ...10 hours ago
- Greens have 'historically bad' start to the year – political scientistThe party has had faced a challenging set of circumstances over the past five months, Lara Greaves says. ...10 hours ago
- HWPL Calls For Peace Amid Rising Tensions Between Israel And Iran
Heavenly Culture, World Peace, Restoration of Light (HWPL), a United Nations-affiliated organization dedicated to fostering peace through civilian-led initiatives, has issued a statement in response to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. ...10 hours ago - The Friday Poem: ‘Mātou’ by Tessa Keenan
A poem by Tessa Keenan, from AUP New Poets 10. Mātou These days we are a photograph; one of a farm strewn with cows that used to be bright harakeke or swamp. The kids point at it and say the sun sits behind a smudge (left by someone at Christmas); ...11 hours ago - The Unity Books bestseller chart for the week ending May 3The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington. AUCKLAND 1 Small Things Like These by Claire Keegan (Faber & Faber, $25) The masterful Irish writer ...11 hours ago
- Marriages, Civil Unions, And Divorces: Year Ended Dec 2023Marriage and civil union statistics record the number of marriages and civil unions registered in New Zealand each year, and divorce statistics record the number of divorces granted in New Zealand each year. Key facts Marriages and civil unions In ...11 hours ago
- Marriages, Civil Unions, And Divorces: Year Ended December 2023Marriage and civil union statistics record the number of marriages and civil unions registered in New Zealand each year, and divorce statistics record the number of divorces granted in New Zealand each year. ...11 hours ago
- How effective are domestic violence advertising campaigns for preventing violence against women?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Waller, Associate Professor, University of Technology Sydney shutterstock Cristina RasoBoluda/Shutterstock Domestic violence is a significant personal, community and social issue attracting much attention. After several recent horrific cases, media discussion, calls for a royal commission to end the violence and ...11 hours ago
- Taiwan is experiencing millions of cyberattacks every day. The world should be paying attentionSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lennon Y.C. Chang, Associate Professor of Cyber Risk and Policy, Deakin University Taiwan stands out as a beacon of democracy, innovation and resilience in an increasingly autocratic region. But this is under growing threat. In recent years, China has used a variety ...11 hours ago
- ‘There was life in the old girl yet’: Dame Susan Devoy on taking reality TV by stormIn this excerpt from her new memoir, Dame Susan Devoy remembers her turn as star contestant on the 2022 season of Celebrity Treasure Island. The most anxious time of every day was pre-elimination, when you knew this could be your final day on the show. I felt such contradictory emotions, ...11 hours ago
- Auditor-General criticises way University of Waikato contracted Steven JoyceJohn Ryan says the University of Waikato did not invite multiple contractors and reached out to the former finance minister directly. ...12 hours ago
- 'Not my first legal rodeo' – Winston Peters on defamation threatForeign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says he will not be cowed by threats of legal action, having received a legal letter from Bob Carr. ...12 hours ago
- Can the Green Party’s holy mission survive its fallible disciples?A week that began in triumph ended in an all-too-familiar disaster for the Green Party. Duncan Greive asks if there’s something in the mission that breaks its best and brightest. A long, strange week for the Green party began with a fantastic poll result. On one level this is hardly ...13 hours ago
- Vanuatu’s Kalsakau resigns, calls for delay on constitutional referendumBy Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific journalist Vanuatu’s former prime minister and opposition MP Ishmael Kalsakau has stepped down — just two days after he confirmed he was the rightful opposition leader. Kalsakau, MP for Port Vila, confirmed to ABC’s Pacific Beat, and the Vanuatu Daily Post on Thursday that he ...13 hours ago
- Winston Peters gives China speech amid legal drama and AUKUS questionsThe Foreign Minister spoke about the NZ-China relationship amid lingering questions about the AUKUS security alliance . ...14 hours ago
- Gone By Lunchtime: Mojo machine misfires, honeymoon cancelledWhat’s to blame for the coalition’s choppy start? Six months in, and the mojo meter is in the doldrums. A new poll would put National out of power and sees its leader, Chris Luxon, sliding in popularity. How much is it about policy, how much coalition management and a perception ...14 hours ago
- The Waitangi Tribunal’s latest report is about far more than just child protectionThe striking report goes far beyond the proposed repeal of the Oranga Tamariki Act’s Treaty of Waitangi provision, and its impact should be felt far beyond the unique circumstances of the claim it addresses. Earlier this week, the Waitangi Tribunal released an interim report on the government’s proposed repeal of ...14 hours ago
- Live Winston Peters gives China speech amid legal drama and AUKUS questionsThe Foreign Minister was speaking at the New Zealand China Council while questions linger about the AUKUS security alliance . ...14 hours ago
- 'We weren't informed': Apprentice working on school unaware of asbestosThe Education Ministry is promising to do more about asbestos problems in schools, with tighter controls over detection and removal. ...15 hours ago
- New Treasury Paper On The Productivity SlowdownThe world has been experiencing a productivity slowdown, from which New Zealand has not been exempt. COVID-19 temporarily boosted labour productivity, but more recently, productivity has retreated. The overall trend since 2007 has been one of slow productivity ...16 hours ago
- The prison slushy story is back, baby, and it’s less nutritious than everWhat’s more wasteful than spending $315k on syrup and machine maintenance? Trying to drum up a controversy about it. Cast your mind back to the pre-pandemic idylls of 2019. A “rat” was a disgusting rodent and not a self-administered plague test; the sixth Labour government was in power; and the ...16 hours ago
- AI can now generate entire songs on demand. What does this mean for music as we know it?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Oliver Bown, Associate Professor, UNSW Sydney PeamDesign / Shutterstock In March, we saw the launch of a “ChatGPT for music” called Suno, which uses generative AI to produce realistic songs on demand from short text prompts. A few weeks later, a ...16 hours ago
- Domestic violence disclosure schemes may not improve safety for victim-survivors of intimate partner...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Fitz-Gibbon, Professor of Social Sciences, Faculty of Arts, Monash University, Monash University Ken stocker/Shutterstock In the wake of numerous killings of women allegedly by men’s violence in 2024, thousands of Australians have joined rallies across the country to demand action ...16 hours ago
- Clearing the elective surgery backlog will take more than one budget. It’ll need major reformSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Henry Cutler, Professor and Director, Macquarie University Centre for the Health Economy, Macquarie University Oleg Ivanov IL/Shutterstock Waiting times for public hospital elective surgery have been in the news ahead of this year’s federal budget. That’s the type of non-emergency surgery ...16 hours ago
- Why is cancer called cancer? We need to go back to Greco-Roman times for the answerSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Konstantine Panegyres, McKenzie Postdoctoral Fellow, Historical and Philosophical Studies, The University of Melbourne Amna Artist/Shutterstock One of the earliest descriptions of someone with cancer comes from the fourth century BC. Satyrus, tyrant of the city of Heracleia on the Black Sea, ...16 hours ago
- Electric vehicles will start to cut emissions and improve air quality in our cities – but only onc...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Rose, Professor of Sustainable Future Transport, University of Sydney LanaElcova/Shutterstock Electric vehicles are often seen as the panacea to cutting emissions – and air pollution – from transport. Is this view correct? Yes – but only once uptake accelerates. Despite the ...16 hours ago
- 4 things our schools should do now to help prevent gender-based violenceSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Giselle Natassia Woodley, Researcher and Phd Candidate, Edith Cowan University There is widespread agreement Australia needs to do better when it comes to gender-based violence. Anger and frustration at the numbers of women being killed saw national rallies over the weekend and ...16 hours ago
- Becoming a landlord while still renting? ‘Rentvesting’ promises a foot on the property ladder, b...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Graham, Lecturer in Economics, University of Sydney Mark and Anna Photography/Shutterstock As home ownership moves further out of reach for many Australians, “rentvesting” is being touted as a lifesaver. Rentvesting is the practice of renting one property to live ...16 hours ago
- Season two of Heartbreak High makes diversity feel ‘banal’. This is its strengthSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sukhmani Khorana, Associate Professor, Faculty of Arts, Design and Architecture, UNSW Sydney Netflix The new season of Heartbreak High is garnering mixed reviews. Critics are writing about the racy story lines, comparing it to other coming-of-age series about teenage relationships and ...16 hours ago
- Winston Peters receives legal letter from Bob Carr after defamation threatBob Carr has confirmed his intention to take legal action against the NZ First leader. ...16 hours ago
- Legal action and bullying allegations: Peters and Genter knock government agenda off its perchBob Carr intends to launch legal action against Winston Peters and Julie Anne Genter is facing a second allegation of bullying. Both sucked the air out of an announcement on education, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in ...16 hours ago
- New law looks to shake up insuranceThe Minister for Commerce and Consumer Affairs says insurance laws are too complicated and change is long overdue. ...16 hours ago
- Winston Peters' comments about former Australian minister 'unstatesmanlike' – L...David Parker says he has never heard a current minister speak about a senior, retired politician from another country in such a way. ...16 hours ago
- Where is she now? Sally ClarkIn 1995, Sally Clark went out on her own in a bold and unorthodox attempt to join an illustrious group of equestrian riders conquering the world. In the days of glovebox road maps, brick cell phones, and the hit song How Bizarre, Clark refused to follow Sir Mark Todd, Blyth ...17 hours ago
- Despite a tenfold increase in ADHD prescriptions, too many New Zealanders are still going withoutSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben Beaglehole, Senior Lecturer, Department of Psychological Medicine, University of Otago niphon/Getty Images The number of people accessing medication for attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in Aotearoa New Zealand increased significantly between 2006 and 2022. But the disorder is still under-diagnosed and ...18 hours ago
- Pay equity taskforce disbanded, 'no longer required' – MinisterThe government is being accused of "misdirected priorities" after it disestablished the pay equity taskforce. ...19 hours ago
- How bad at reading are New Zealand children?There are more bad readers among our 10-year-olds, but the picture has improved for teenagers, international testing has found. ...19 hours ago
- Knocked Up, American Pie, the Bean movie: A brief history of NZ music in Hollywood To celebrate the start of New Zealand music month, we look back at the best local tuneage that managed to weasel its way into Hollywood productions. There’s nothing quite like the thrilling zap of recognition when New Zealand weasels its way into a glamorous Hollywood production. Crack open a Tui ...20 hours ago
- Why I told a cop about my lasagne and what it’s got to do with the mediaPeople trust other people more than institutions. So how can the media gain that trust through journalists without losing what’s important about the institution? Anna Rawhiti-Connell reflects on two years of curating the news for The Bulletin. Amonth ago, armed cops descended on my neighbourhood as calls to “lock your ...20 hours ago
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Hmm push polling at ipredict? They have just opened a book on Shearer replacing Goff by the next election.
That would be free money but who can be arsed tying up 20 or 30 bucks for a 25% return in two and a half years when I could spend that money on booze right now instead?
25% is a massive return. Comments like this, in addition to your useless posts are examples of why you should be slink back to garage for another drink.
It is a massive return. But 25% of $20 is $5. Not worth my time to make a bet for a $5 payoff in 2 and a half years. I’m too old and too rich for that.
I agree that things are going to get dark for National. They’ve sold out the North Shore who were their base in Auckland.
Still I don’t want Labour to get too cocky, they need to do some soul searching like the Democrats did in 2000. Things like the Tizzard internet debacle turned off many progressives. A bit of reinvention is undoubtedly in order along with a returning to the core ideals that made them Labour in the first place.
You could at least spell Tizard right. Only one T! Reflects perhaps on the sophistication of your analysis.
Ha! Only one T? Or only one Z? Try not to be too snarky when correcting others as it has the potential to backfire.
What Tizard internet debacle?
That’s a serious question btw 🙂
I fully agree. The North Shore should annex itself from auckland and its mayor.
Long live North Harbour!
What Tizard internet debacle?
Presumably the Copyright Amendment Act (“guilt upon accusation”)?
Oh, ok.
Does Michael Over Here really think that many people link it with Labour? I think it’s an issue which a very small segment of the population know or care about, and an even smaller segment know where it came from.
Agreed, but MOH seems to feel otherwise.
Yep, but I only have my own personal experience discussing politics to back it up so I could be wrong. During the last election, around my office and amongst friends, I discussed who they were voting for and why. The ones who were voting for National for the first time in a decade either said that it was “Nationals turn” or mentioned the Copyright Amendment Act specifically.
It’s easy to argue against the entire idea of parties getting turns at being the majority but it was hard to argue against the Copyright Amendment Act not being a product of the Labour government.
I’m not saying that this is an accurate sampling of New Zealand opinion, just citing a specific example of where I felt Labour had lost it’s way. My core argument is that Labour shouldn’t go to easy on itself and just expect National to lose the next election, we need to win it.
Good post.
Three comments:
1. In 1999 Labour won 38.74% of the party vote. In 2002 and 2005 it won over 41%.
2. You are right about the vote change process. In Mt Albert people had to make up their minds quickly and a groundswell was evident. In the rest of the country there will be this reluctance by swinging voters to admit they are wrong. But I do sense a major discontent with the way things are going. This government is not Labour Lite.
3. You are also right that the reasons for change are receding quickly. The anti smacking stuff is a classic example. Last year it was the issue of the year. Now most people do not even want to vote in the proposed referendum.
be careful you don’t start believing your own pu there
Bravo Eddie, that was the best excuse for Phil-ins inability to dent nationals poll ratings i have heard yet.
Just a note though – As long as Phil is in charge, nz wont vote him in. If labour are to survive they need a new face. There is talent in the backbenches but they must fight for leadership if they want to govern.
As i dont see that happening in your three year plan, i think it will fail.
labour have swapped clark and cullen for goff and cunliffe. Can’t wait for election year if that line-up remains. The press hounding goff asking him what he really thinks about “…… ” But in 1952 you said voted against “….” Mr Goff?
Why should someone remain consistent in their beliefs throughout their lives? Is it even possible? What I’m saying is you’re being a dick.
….so no problems with people “flip flopping” then…
It depends. This is not about commitments or promises this about positions on issues held by someone decades ago. Do you expect people to hold the same opinions all their lives? People can just admit to changing thier minds, though politicians rarely do that. They should.
…perhaps then Eddie should not belittle the swing voter with his “voting is like buying a car” theory. I’d actually more than half expect some commentators on this site to stick to their opinions for the rest of their lives. Especially when it comes to socialism versus capitalism.
Well I can say I support a free market so am anti-capitalism, but I couldn’t say for sure I’ll hold that opinion long into the future. All I can say is that the arguments against capitalism and for the free market have persuaded me for now.
Yep, Goff screws up time and time again. The most classic as pointed out by df is the state housing video from 1986. Very lol moment.
jayzuz righties.
Oh noes!! Please please please don’t campiagn against Goff based on the fact that he was a nobody in the Lange/Douglas days. If you want to make the next election about Rogernomics, when roger is in your coalition, that’s one briar patch the left is totally scared of.
It is absolutely made of win for you guys.
“Goff based on the fact that he was a nobody in the Lange/Douglas days”
That sums up pretty well why labour will never succeed with Goff at the helm.
Wack it on the bill phil is yesterdays man and wouldn’t stand a chance against a concerted PR campaign pointing this out over and over and over…
That’s right mike. Please don’t throw the left into that briar patch.
Mike: Yesterday’s men are here and now. Nick Smith, Bill English, Tony Ryall, Tau Henare, Lockwood Smith, etc, and with the same agenda and at the same (roughly) party ranking. My point is, winning and losing is, hopefully, more than just simplistic spinning like your crappy argument.
Rodney Hide is very quiet. Maybe he knows his yesterday is looming?
Problem is, Goff is like Jim McLay in 1985. He hasn’t pruned out the dead wood in the front benches, but he won’t because they’ll all turn against him. Who’s gone? Clark and Cullen, hey look, there’s a new leader who was a Cabinet Minister 20 years ago.
there is often a lot to be said for a Steady-As-You-Go character, particularly in unsettled times, to counter the fly-by-night-want-everything-now brigade. Young or youthful doesn’t always cut it… what’s the meaning of “you cannot put an old head on young shoulders”?
A lot of National’s stuff ups so far have been on “inside the beltway” issues I think. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few months, as unemployment really starts to bite and people ask whether the government could be doing more to protect or save their job.
I found the Otorohanga item on “Sunday” very interesting, and it is an issues that will resonate with many I suspect.
I still think Labour need to come up with their version of the Green New Deal – to really offer people an alternative: “this is how we’d do things, much better ain’t it?”
That Otorohanga item was telling. Not just because of the subject but also because it is the first real criticism (that I’ve noticed) of the government on pop TV.
I suspect there are many more such items in the pop TV pipeline and as they feed through, the Nats will plunge in the polls
correct anlysis.
the polls wont show anything just yet.
listen to radio squawkback and they are still fighting the last election.
and the squawkers are mostly drunk.
as soon as they sober up there will be a different response.
Why would you expect the polls to change when so little has been effected since the election. The spending cuts have been pretty minor, many of the changes have been symbolic or at best token PR exercises.
Many of the cuts have intangible costs (eg adult education) or will be significant in years to come (carbon trading)
People have very low expectations at present, they are not counting on becoming weathier in the next 12 months so the bar has been set low.
The test for National will come when the rest of the world returns to economic growth. If people can’t see us matching Australia’s or the US’s growth then questions will be asked.