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Old guard moving on, really?

Written By: - Date published: 9:35 am, January 16th, 2011 - 34 comments

A strange little article in the Sunday-Star Times praises National’s ‘rejuvenation’ project. Well, excuse me but 3 MPs out of 53 announcing their retirement and 2 quitting under clouds of corruption during a term hardly equals rejuvenation. In fact, National faces the same problem that Labour did – too little turnover.

English Confident Voters Gullible

Written By: - Date published: 1:05 pm, January 10th, 2011 - 34 comments

Blinglish is confident that voters understand the economy and back the government’s (lack of) direction.  In fact he better hope that voters don’t understand the economy, or notice National’s lack of help to an economy shedding jobs and headed into double-dip recession, or he won’t get voted back in.

Labour’s greatest challenge for 2011?

Written By: - Date published: 12:04 pm, January 9th, 2011 - 59 comments

The Sunday Star-Times has produced an interesting article on the role of emotion in people’s voter choices leading into this year’s General Election. While the results are not great news for Labour supporters, it’s the first poll of its kind to be made public in NZ. There’s a lot of controversy over whether we ought […]

How bad’s the poll?

Written By: - Date published: 9:12 pm, January 8th, 2011 - 59 comments

Farrar and Slater are trying to knee-cap a poll in the SST tomorrow. They know the numbers because Key’s office told them. Obviously jittered. Slater says it has NZF at 8.9%. Movement of ipredict stocks suggest its bad news for Nats and Labour. If Nats are in mid-40s then they’re in danger territory. Very hard for them to find a majority.

Last Roy Morgan of the year

Written By: - Date published: 1:00 pm, December 22nd, 2010 - 37 comments

It’s First Past the Post thinking to look at the polling gap between National and Labour and conclude National will romp home. MMP is here and set to stay – it means the coalition with the support of a majority of MPs governs, not necessarily the largest party. The final Roy Morgan of the year lets us look at the trends in support for Left and Right.

Wikileaks NZ cables

Written By: - Date published: 10:03 am, December 19th, 2010 - 53 comments

Odd timing as everyone powers down for Christmas, but The Herald has published the NZ Wikileaks cables.  A rather far fetched attack on Clark (covered by Eddie yesterday), the Nats breaking promises and misleading Parliament.  But if that’s the worst in the cables then I’m guessing that politicians on both sides, past and present, will be vastly relieved.

Phil Twyford for Te Atatu candidate

Written By: - Date published: 6:01 pm, December 18th, 2010 - 25 comments

Phil Twyford is selected as the new Labour candidate for Te Atatu from a strong field.

Phil Twyford is a formidable campaigner, as I know from past experience. I almost pity whatever sacrificial lamb that National put up in that electorate.

Naff off Key

Written By: - Date published: 12:48 pm, December 13th, 2010 - 51 comments

So John Key predicts an unhappy New Year for Phil Goff who is at risk of being rolled…  Because the ShonKey DonKey knows so much about the Labour Party and the extra-secret hidden leadership battles that are certain to be going on, according to his own imagination.

Get on with running the country John, and get us out of a double-dip recession before you start speculating on things you know nothing about.

Labour Selections

Written By: - Date published: 9:04 am, December 12th, 2010 - 19 comments

Today Labour choose their candidate for Manurewa to replace George Hawkins.  It’ll be a show of the party in good health, with 500 expected to turn up and vote on 7 candidates.

Next week there are 8 going for Te Atatu.

So in a week’s time we’ll know which 2 quality candidates will replace 2 over-inflated egos in 2011.  It looks good for the future health and direction of the party.

No closure on the foreshore

Written By: - Date published: 12:43 pm, December 9th, 2010 - 49 comments

For a while it looked like the Nats’ Marine and Coastal Areas Bill was going to represent a successful and enduring solution to the foreshore debate in NZ.  But Maori support evaporated.  Now the new Bill has suffered a further massive blow to its credibility.  Labour is pulling its support…

A smart speech from Goff

Written By: - Date published: 7:16 am, December 7th, 2010 - 87 comments

Goff has given several excellent policy speeches this year, and the last one was no exception.  Squarely targeted at a middle New Zealand that saw little of National’s tax cuts and far more of their job losses and rising prices.  Pointing out the obvious, that National has failed to deliver on the economy, and has no viable plan to do so.  In short, a great platform for election year.

Te Atatu electorate letter

Written By: - Date published: 2:56 pm, December 6th, 2010 - 25 comments

Much to the delight of the right wing chattering class, the Te Atatu electorate has written a letter attacking Labour leadership.  Storm in a teacup. I don’t think there is any shock value to the public in further revelations about Chris Carter, just a bit of titillation for the blog fodder.

Re:Cunliffe re:me re:his speech

Written By: - Date published: 10:30 am, December 3rd, 2010 - 20 comments

It was pretty cool that the next Finance Minister wrote a post about my post yesterday. Even if was to say I was dickishly misinterpreting him  😀 I’ve got a couple of points in reply but the biggest is why is Labour talking about (restrictive) privatisation and PPPs policies when there are much more important economic issues at hand?

Congratulations Kris

Written By: - Date published: 8:14 pm, November 20th, 2010 - 50 comments

With a majority of votes counted it’s clear that Kris Fa’afoi is going to be the next Labour MP for Mana. We’re sure Kris will show his mettle in standing up for the people of Porirua and Mana in Parliament. All the best Kris. Show those Nats what you’re made of.

Government cuts bite back

Written By: - Date published: 6:42 am, November 13th, 2010 - 26 comments

So our kiwifruit industry is in peril.  PSA may be here to stay, vines may start being burnt today, and a $1.36 billion industry is in trouble. Last year National sacked 54 front-line biosecurity staff, and slashed the budgets by millions. The PSA (Public Service Association) warned at the time that inevitably disease and pests […]

The Google poll

Written By: - Date published: 7:43 am, November 7th, 2010 - 23 comments

It seems that in American elections there is an almost perfect correspondence between some candidates’ opinion polling and their current search volume on Google.  Can we do away with political opinion polls?  Sounds interesting doesn’t it.  A quick check shows that the relative frequency of searches for “National party” and “Labour party” predicted the result of the 2008 election.  What other tricks can we try?

Neoliberal dominoes

Written By: - Date published: 9:55 am, November 6th, 2010 - 51 comments

According to some, the very definition of madness is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.  In economic terms the world, and NZ, have been doing the same neoliberal economic agenda over and over for the last 30 years.  It hasn’t worked.  It’s time for a change…

Labour and Greens lead on transparency

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, November 3rd, 2010 - 12 comments

Last week Speaker Lockwood Smith rolled back transparency on MPs expenses, by making travel spending secret again.  John Key came out “against” the move.  Yesterday Labour and the Greens called his bluff by releasing their details.  Over to you John, once again you’re too late to lead, but you can still follow…

Matt McCarten standing in Mana

Written By: - Date published: 2:07 pm, October 27th, 2010 - 96 comments

Matt McCarten is chucking his hat into the ring for the Mana by election.  This is a typically gutsy move by McCarten, but a third candidate on the left simply isn’t going to find the space for a win.  My guess is that he will split the Green vote.  But with Key quietly campaigning in Mana, Labour needs to stay on top of their game. Labour activists — with greetings and thanks to you all — get out there and give it all you have!…

Tax Cuts or High Wages?

Written By: - Date published: 9:00 am, October 27th, 2010 - 17 comments

At the last election we chose tax cuts and unemployment instead of stimulus and stability – which was the more ambitious, high wage way to go?

National are not fulfilling their government’s core reason for existence: closing the wage gap with Australia.  No, we’re fast going backwards on that score, and it’s predictable: high unemployment causes low wages.

Granny Herald opening eyes?

Written By: - Date published: 11:43 am, October 25th, 2010 - 10 comments

There was an excellent piece in the Saturday Herald by John Armstrong.  A large 2-page spread, fairly prominent in the paper, and not critical of Labour.  Not fulsome praise; just great, unbiased reporting.

Now admittedly I shouldn’t get excited by such things, but the steadily slipping standards of New Zealand’s papers, combined with a media love-in with National at the last election, leaves good quality newspaper  journalism a sight to behold.

A welcome shift to the centre

Written By: - Date published: 9:18 am, October 23rd, 2010 - 33 comments

Labour’s new economic agenda is a welcome shift to the centre.

It’s the first time in more than 25 years that a major party has turned its back on the neo-liberal policies that have failed New Zealand so badly.

Bloody good stuff!

Labour policy Maori policy

Written By: - Date published: 8:18 am, October 23rd, 2010 - 20 comments

In a press release last week Tariana Turia claimed that Labour’s new policy directions are all Maori Party policies.  That puts the Maori Party in an interesting position after the next election.  Will the major party that they support be dictated by their policies, Labour’s policies, as Turia claims?  Or will their support be dictated by other, non-policy factors?

Why the Right is worried 4: Polls

Written By: - Date published: 11:57 am, October 21st, 2010 - 41 comments

The trend is quite clear now. The Right’s support peaked and the Left’s support reached is nadir last year. The gap has been gradually closing ever since. From a 24.5% gap between National and ACT a year ago, the gap in the latest Roy Morgan has fallen to 5.5%.  About quarter of a million Kiwis have switched their support to the Left in a single year.

Key’s economic bravado now reduced to whining

Written By: - Date published: 7:04 am, October 21st, 2010 - 25 comments

In three short years John Key and National have gone from economic bravado, to failure, to lies, excuses and whining.  As the economy languishes they will have nothing to offer except more lies and excuses.

This is a time for fresh thinking, both globally and locally.  But we won’t get it from National.

Why the Right is worried 3: Policy

Written By: - Date published: 11:59 am, October 20th, 2010 - 8 comments

In contrast to National’s policy vacuum on the economy, Labour has been focusing its policy work on a major change in direction. It’s obvious that the hands-off approach introduced in the 1980s has failed, leading to mal-investment in housing with an economy stripped of its manufacturing capability and geared for import-dependent consumerism.

Phil Goff: The Leader Emerges

Written By: - Date published: 1:22 pm, October 18th, 2010 - 43 comments

Phil Goff made an excellent speech yesterday.  One that showed far more direction, and a lot of promise for going forward.  Hopefully Labour can capitalise on this much better than they did on the excellent “The Many, Not The Few” speech.  They should be able to – yesterday’s “Kiwi Dream” speech contained much more meat […]

Conference roundup

Written By: - Date published: 8:32 am, October 18th, 2010 - 32 comments

Labour’s conference in the weekend seems to have gone well, and been well received by the media.  Here’s a roundup of headlines and comment.

Owning our future

Written By: - Date published: 7:20 am, October 18th, 2010 - 139 comments

It’s great to hear Phil Goff announce that a Labour government won’t let overseas interests to own more than 25% of monopolistic companies, like ports and airports, and farmland. In the new world economy we’re moving into, a global scramble for vital natural resources like farmland, we need to keep the foundations of our economy in Kiwi hands.

Child friendly

Written By: - Date published: 8:17 am, October 17th, 2010 - 58 comments

The Labour conference this weekend is expected to release new “policy directions”.  One of them is out already — and it’s good.  What could make more sense than putting children first?

The failing polls..

Written By: - Date published: 4:58 pm, October 16th, 2010 - 12 comments

An article in The Economist looks at the failing basis of polling techniques in the USA. It isn’t that much different to the circumstances here.

“The proportion of those called who end up taking part in a survey has fallen steadily, from 35% or so in the 1990s to 15% or less now, according to Mr Keeter. Reaching young people is especially difficult. Only old ladies answer the phone…”

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