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A NZ First First; Winston outvoted in Caucus
Written By: - Date published: 11:25 am, July 3rd, 2015 - 46 comments
The extraordinary battle for the Deputy Leadership of NZ First is over. Winston’s pick has been rejected by the NZF caucus and his grip on the party has loosened significantly. But what does this mean for Labour, the Greens and the prospects of a better Government?
Guest Post – What is Little’s vision for New Zealand?
Written By: - Date published: 10:00 am, July 3rd, 2015 - 111 comments
A guest post from Ad following up from Mandy Hager’s recent post on Andrew Little exploring the question on what should be Labour’s, the Green’s and New Zealand First’s vision for New Zealand’s future.
Political Strategy for a Progressive Majority
Written By: - Date published: 8:53 pm, May 25th, 2015 - 67 comments
Sir Michael Cullen discussed political strategy at the “Destination- Next Progressive Majority” seminars held recently by the Fabian Society in Auckland and Wellington. He started by sharing what he used to say to his students when they were facing a test – “never forget to state the obvious.” For a progressive majority that means “get more votes than the others” – he had some good ideas how.
The implications of Winston Peters’ Northland win
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, April 4th, 2015 - 90 comments
John Armstrong in the Herald and Tracy Watkins in the Dominion Post have both written opinion pieces on the implications of Winston Peters’ win in Northland which reach very similar conclusions.
Unintended Consequences
Written By: - Date published: 10:09 am, April 1st, 2015 - 148 comments
Winston Peters is poised to announce who will replace him on the NZ First list. It may even be someone who can lead the party after he retires. There’s one really obvious candidate; an ex MP suffering from relevancy deficit syndrome and keen to get back in the political spotlight. It’s ….
Some random thoughts on the Northland result
Written By: - Date published: 9:51 am, March 29th, 2015 - 62 comments
Winston Peters’ win in Northland yesterday was based on turnout that was significantly higher than turnout for any other recent by election. And occurred in no small part because of some adept handling of messaging of support by Andrew Little.
Winston takes Northland
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 pm, March 28th, 2015 - 310 comments
Is anyone else experiencing a bit of political shellshock?
Northland: 3News Poll Nails Nats.
Written By: - Date published: 6:35 pm, March 25th, 2015 - 113 comments
Well, it’s pretty much a done deal now. Winston’s going to win Northland. But who’s the biggest loser?
Northland Polls; Horrorshow for National
Written By: - Date published: 10:19 am, March 6th, 2015 - 204 comments
The first polls in the Northland by-election are grim reading for National. It looks likely that Winston will win and National will lose their Parliamentary majority. Have the Tories snatched defeat from the jaws of victory?
On Northland
Written By: - Date published: 1:44 pm, March 4th, 2015 - 117 comments
I’ve been getting tired of the fantasy elections that some political commentators seem to enjoy playing. Currently the fantasises is in Northland, with the same old tiresome lines. It is a pity that most of those playing this game don’t ever seem to think about the behaviours of real voters, real candidates, and real parties.
Winston: We Will Fight Them on The Beaches of Northland!
Written By: - Date published: 1:29 pm, February 27th, 2015 - 376 comments
NZ First leader Winston Peters is to stand in the Northland by-election. A three way race between NZ First, Labour and National will make for an interesting campaign and factors outside of National’s control may determine the result.
Stand by Your Man
Written By: - Date published: 8:48 am, February 19th, 2015 - 107 comments
Sometime in the next few days, Winston Peters will announce whether or not he will stand in the Northland by-election. He should run unchallenged by the left and Labour and the Greens should endorse him for the greater good.
Top MP tweeters ….?
Written By: - Date published: 9:54 am, December 29th, 2014 - 27 comments
Claire Trevett in the NZ Herald has an article on her chosen top MP tweeters, now that Judith Collins has vacated her (alleged) position as “Minister of Twitter” Not quite my list of top tweeters… and yours?
Local Bodies: Greens Immediately Become the Opposition.
Written By: - Date published: 7:16 am, September 27th, 2014 - 63 comments
bspout at Local Bodies was well up on the Greens list, but as the Greens only got 10%, he didn’t get into parliament. But as he says, with Labour navel gazing and NZ First lacking experience, the greens are currently the only effective opposition at present.
Labour obviously never worked out MMP
Written By: - Date published: 8:59 am, September 26th, 2014 - 104 comments
Perhaps it is time for activists to have two parties. The one that specialises in electorates and the one that focuses on party vote. Because it is becoming evident that Labour is unlikely to ever manage to make the transition to being a MMP party. Their MPs clearly don’t care for the party or the brand.
Jackal: A coalition with Winston Peters
Written By: - Date published: 3:54 pm, September 14th, 2014 - 79 comments
Jackal has compiled a number of the reasons why NZ First and particularly Winston Peters are unlikely to form a coalition or even to support National and John Key. Probably the way that National through their sockpuppets Act, David Farrar, and Whaleoil attacked with spurious charges in 2008. That he came back must have been a shock…
Blue on the polls
Written By: - Date published: 12:04 pm, September 14th, 2014 - 62 comments
Landline polls are a traditional gripe for lefties. But this election polls look seriously out of whack with reality. Is National at 55%, 50%, 48% or 46%? But it’s always far too large for a party at National’s current stage in the political cycle. Just unbelievable and highly unlikely.
What kind of government would National lead?
Written By: - Date published: 12:45 pm, September 8th, 2014 - 112 comments
The choice for NZ voters is becoming clearer in the last days of the 2014 election. The irony is that after John Key’s scaremongering, our options are a three-headed coalition of natural allies versus a five-or-six headed hydra of extremists and sworn enemies.
Tories! Scared of Internet/Mana? I have the solution …
Written By: - Date published: 7:19 am, September 5th, 2014 - 64 comments
Labour are going to lead the next Government. So what’s a Tory voter to do to keep the damge to a minimum? If the possibility of Hone Harawira and Laila Harre being Ministers in the Cunliffe administration is keeping you up at night, then Te Reo Putake has the answer.
The opening addresses of Election 2014
Written By: - Date published: 10:00 am, August 24th, 2014 - 32 comments
Last night the opening party political addresses were broadcast on TV One, simultaneous with an All Blacks match and a live-tweeted crowd viewing of Labyrinth. So if you missed out (and don’t follow my every thought on Twitter), here’s my reaction! [Update: more links to videos!]
Just made for Winston
Written By: - Date published: 9:59 pm, August 13th, 2014 - 26 comments
I think I know someone who 5 weeks out from an election who thinks he has just had a few percent tacked on to his parties votes. After all remember the “cup of tea” in Epsom last election. And he may have read some parts of the book?
Local Bodies: Greens Riding Above Stormy Seas
Written By: - Date published: 9:41 am, August 13th, 2014 - 10 comments
Dave Kennedy (bsprout) looks at the increasingly parlous current state of the smaller parties. He is also looking forward to the Green party campaign launch this weekend in Auckland. Updated with Green campaign launch details.
The right’s lack of diversity
Written By: - Date published: 12:00 pm, August 12th, 2014 - 46 comments
On the right there’s one big party who have the lion’s share of the vote, and a smattering of odd little parties at the kids’ table fighting for scraps and key electorates. It’s one of the reasons National continues to poll so highly: if you’re a rightwing voter, you don’t have any other viable options.
Our Friends in the North
Written By: - Date published: 6:31 pm, August 6th, 2014 - 225 comments
It’s been an interesting few days in the battle for Te Tai Tokerau. Never mind the bollocks, people. The question for Labour isn’t should we stand aside for Hone in the north or Mana/IP anywhere else. The question is ‘do we need ’em?’. The answer is looking more and more like no.
NZ First conference – Sunday.
Written By: - Date published: 11:03 am, July 20th, 2014 - 40 comments
It is a shorter day today. More organisational.
Leading up to Winston Peters speech later today where he is promising about 9 policy announcements.
Campaign slogan “It’s common sense”
Updated: 14:46
NZ First conference – Saturday.
Written By: - Date published: 10:17 am, July 19th, 2014 - 70 comments
At the Alexandra Park racecourse for the NZ First conference.Just listened to Paddy Gower in his interview with Winston Peters. The interesting bit was the questioning about Winston standing in East Coast Bays if Steven Joyce/John Key make a deal with the conservatives and Murray McCully stands aside. That will be interesting, and I suspect under those circumstances that he’d get a lot of votes.
NZ First conference – the kingmakers?
Written By: - Date published: 4:48 pm, July 15th, 2014 - 50 comments
It looks like I’ll be able to head to the NZ First conference at Alexandra Park racecourse on the weekend as media. This election the position of NZ First party members is probably going to be crucial for any coalition that forms. In this rather long post I explain my (and other peoples) thinking on possible coalition results for National after the election. They aren’t good because they really depend on a political group that National has been denigrating for quite a while.
Polity: National dropped 6% in 2008, 2011 campaigns
Written By: - Date published: 4:18 pm, July 7th, 2014 - 8 comments
At Rob Salmond’s briefing to Labour’s Congress over the weekend, he made a point about National’s performance in recent campaigns, which was later picked up in David Cunliffe’s speech.
National has dropped six percent each time. For those interested, here is the data that sits beneath this claim.
It is no wonder that John Key is worried when 3 months out from an election they are sitting on less than 50%, with dead and dying coalition partners.
The coat-tail rule and democracy
Written By: - Date published: 5:00 pm, May 30th, 2014 - 136 comments
Allow me to fly in the face of an accepted truth in NZ politics by saying this: there is absolutely nothing undemocratic about the MMP “coat-tail” rules.
Russel & Metiria – or Winston?
Written By: - Date published: 9:30 am, April 23rd, 2014 - 133 comments
Yesterday Rob Salmond commented on Labour’s two likeliest options for coalition partners after the 2014 election, and had some interesting things to say about New Zealand First and the Greens. But I must beg to differ on the suggested advantages of offering a plum deal to Winston and expecting Russel and Metiria to play along […]
Polity: I am still holding out for a three-way
Written By: - Date published: 12:38 pm, April 22nd, 2014 - 110 comments
I think the pundits misjudge Peters. I think he wants a major, polity-based legacy in the 2014-2017 term, as well as baubles. Only the left can offer this. With the left, Peters can be The Man who Saved the Power Companies. National cannot compete with that. Which gives everyone on the left, including the Greens, some leverage. So count me out of the consensus that Winston in Cabinet means no Greens in Cabinet. I see a feasible three-way deal on the horizon.
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