Climate Change & Poverty

Written By: - Date published: 8:04 am, January 9th, 2013 - 54 comments
Categories: capitalism, climate change, Conservation, disaster, Economy, education, health, infrastructure, poverty, sustainability - Tags:

The current heat wave and wildfires in Australia are an immediate cause for concern, threatening large scale damage to homes and life.  They have also caused some to focus on the possibility of an increase in such catastrophes as average global temperatures rise.  Meanwhile, Joseph Stigliz warns of an urgent need for structural change to respond to the simultaneous threats to the long term future of society resulting from climate change, poverty and inequality.

In Australia yesterday, Julia Gillard warned that:

Gillard said extreme bushfires were part of life in a hot and dry country.

”And while you would not put any one event down to climate change … we do know that over time as a result of climate change we are going to see more extreme weather events,” she said.

The biggest disasters in Australia’s recorded history have been during the summer months and such disastrous events are likely to increase.  However, it is not just temperature rises that cause such events, but unusual climatic conditions:

Climate scientists predict average temperatures are set to increase by somewhere between two and five degrees by the end of the century, but it’s not average temperatures that create cyclones and bushfires. The big ones – those that kill scores of people and inflict hundreds of millions of dollars in property damage – occur in exceptional climactic conditions.

This includes a prolonged drought, followed by a day or so of high temperatures, low humidity and gusty winds.  Chris Hammer explains:

Australia’s hot dry summers already ensure that such exceptional circumstances will inevitably occur. They occurred in Victoria and South Australia in the Ash Wednesday fires of 1983, and the Black Friday fires of 1939, long before climate change was perceived as a threat.

Some may take comfort in that, but it would be a misplaced comfort.

An average increase in summer temperatures will increase the frequency of bushfires, perhaps exponentially. The modelling cannot be precise on this, but the direction is clear.

This is because with an increase in background temperatures, climate scientists also expect an increase in climactic volatility. In other words, more exceptional weather events: drier droughts, wetter floods and more catastrophic bushfires.

Such environmental catastrophes are inevitably linked with social and economic conditions as are any possible solutions.  I’m not sure about Stiglitz claim that an adequate response to climate change will “restore adequate demand and growth“, rather than aim for a sustainable, steady state economy. However, he does outline some of the causes of global economic and social problems.  Stiglitz argues that world is needing to adjust from a society based in manufacturing to a service-based one.

While processes of manufacturing necessities have become cheaper and more efficient, the demand for services such as health and education has grown: a demand that is far from being fully met internationally. Stligltiz argues:

New firms must be created, and modern financial markets are better at speculation and exploitation than they are at providing funds for new enterprises, especially small- and medium-size companies.

Moreover, making the transition requires investments in human capital that individuals often cannot afford. Among the services that people want are health and education, two sectors in which government naturally plays an important role (owing to inherent market imperfections in these sectors and concerns about equity).

In this context, Stiglitz points to a crisis of inequality as being one of the major global problems that threatens the long term future for human society.

Indeed, I (and others) have argued that growing inequality is one of the reasons for the economic slowdown, and is partly a consequence of the global economy’s deep, ongoing structural changes.

An economic and political system that does not deliver for most citizens is one that is not sustainable in the long run. Eventually, faith in democracy and the market economy will erode, and the legitimacy of existing institutions and arrangements will be called into question.

The “market” will not provide the solutions to the inter-related problems of climate, environment, inequalities and poverty. It requires “structural transitions” and provisions that include governments taking an active role.  As Stiglitz concludes:

As we struggle with today’s crises, we should be asking whether we are responding in ways that exacerbate our long-term problems. The path marked out by the deficit hawks and austerity advocates both weakens the economy today and undermines future prospects. The irony is that, with insufficient aggregate demand the major source of global weakness today, there is an alternative: invest in our future, in ways that help us to address simultaneously the problems of global warming, global inequality and poverty, and the necessity of structural change.

54 comments on “Climate Change & Poverty”

  1. King Kong 1

    If only you could have sneaked something about gays in then you would have hit the “ranting lefty trifecta”. Climate change, poverty and gays.

  2. Coronial Typer 2

    And it’s not only a threat, it’s an opportunity for New Zealand. We need to prepare for huge storms, both north and south islands, and huge droughts. That requres stronger catchment management. We need a whole bunch of new storage dams like the ones proposed for Hawkes Bay and Canterbury. Storage dams are tough debates within a community and region. But we need them, both to manage floods and to manage droughts, and to sustain production.

    The debate about the complete commodification of fresh water use in New Zealand is coming at us this year. I think it’s time. Water is our only major natural economic competitive advantage. I don’t agree with the corporatised approach to water – that’s a separate issue to commoditising it so that people pay for what they use and pay for what they damage as a result.

    • Colonial Weka 2.1

      Why do we need more storage dams?

      • Coronial Typer 2.1.1

        “But we need them, both to manage floods and to manage droughts, and to sustain production”

        • Colonial Weka 2.1.1.1

          Dude, I can read. Production of what? Why are ‘more storage dams’ needed in the face of CC? How will storage dams help manage floods and droughts? I agree better catchment management is needed (we need that irrespective of CC btw). Storage dams on their own, esp large scale ones, are not going to save us though.

          • Coronial Typer 2.1.1.1.1

            No they won’t save us. They are not optimal and in some senses damaging. They manage river levels in a flood (even a little), and save water for a long time during drought. New Zealand’s most intensive agricultural land use is highly water-dependent (viticulture, dairy in particular).

            I am definitely in favour of dense riparian planting to soften flood impacts. But they are not enough either. Every centimetre of absorbed flood height saved helps.

  3. Bill 3

    And while you would not put any one event down to climate change..

    (Gillard and ‘a million’ others)

    Just realised that I’m completely over this dishonest and stupid bullshit.

    See, Gillard acknowledges that there is climate change, yet in the same breath, and under cover of supposed reasonableness, asserts that climate change cannot be said to be the determinant factor of particular weather .

    All weather occurs because of the climatic context it take place in. And the climatic context has changed and is changing due to increases in global temperature. And just because today’s weather wherever is recognisable as weather we might have expected during the past 10 000 years or whatever; that doesn’t mean that that weather is not the result of the current climatic context…of course it is! It cannot concievably be down to any other reason.

    Global warming shifts climatic parameters that in turn determine possible weathers. End.

    What the fuck does Gillard and the ‘1001’ apologetic spineless bastard scientists – who should be utterly ashamed of themselves; the ones who are trundled out from time to time to pronounce that ‘we just don’t know for certain if *this* is due to global warming’ think causes fucking weather?! The finer nuances of a cockerel’s crow or what? I’d love to know.

    • Colonial Viper 3.1

      Yeah its word games and games with clever stochastic languaging. While every day the edge of the cliff looms closer and ever faster.

    • One Tāne Viper 3.2

      There is a great deal of money involved. If we start attributing specific losses to Greenhouse events, the next thing you know we’ll be suing polluters for the damages and prosecuting them for the deaths, and we can’t have that, now can we?

    • karol 3.3

      Yes, the “deniers” are leading the agenda. And one of the first things they ask, when someone says such an event is part of climate change, “prove it.” And it’s hard to link any one event to climate change. But the answer is in the evidence of global warming, plus the causes of any one event.

      Pandering to deniers doesn’t help. Politicians particularly need to be leading on the issue.

      • Bill 3.3.1

        Proving it is as easy as looking out the window. *This* weather is determined by the climate. Global warming determines the parameters of climate. *This* weather is the result of global warming.

        Why does this idea; that only ‘shocking’ weather stems from global warming induced climate change persist? All weather…good weather, bad weather, indifferent weather…all of it stems from global warming induced climate change…unless there’s something to the way that cockerel crows afterall.

      • geoff 3.3.2

        There probably won’t be societal change until the frequency of extreme weather events makes business as usual impossible.

        For example, look at the global response to the GFC; no major regulatory changes and very few of the people responsible for it were prosecuted.

      • Jenny 3.3.3

        Yes, the “deniers” are leading the agenda.

        karol

        Rubbish. The deniers have been pushed to the edge of this debate. The “deniers” are not leading the agenda, the apologists and ignorers are. Every rational political leader in every government around the world admits to the reality of climate change. But, apologists like John key say that the economy and jobs are more important than doing anything about climate change. And ignorers like David Shearer, (taking his que from the US presidential elections), simply say nothing, and promise nothing.

        • karol 3.3.3.1

          I think there’s a mixture of both deniers and ignorers/apologists. Julia Gillard may have been anticipating the kind of response she did actually get from the acting leader of the Aussie opposition, as reported this afternoon in the SMH:

          Acting opposition leader Warren Truss says it is ”too simplistic” to link the current heatwave and fires to climate change.
          In Brisbane on Wednesday, Mr Truss acknowledged the record heatwave, but said Australia’s climate was changeable, with hot times and cold times.
          ”The reality is, it’s being utterly simplistic to suggest that we have these fires because of climate change,” he said.
          ”It’s too simplistic to link one hot spell to climate change.”

          This Guardian article by George Monbiot offers as an explanation for why denial is a national past time in Aussie:

          The Australian opposition leader has repeatedly questioned the science and impacts of climate change. …

          Australia is the world’s largest exporter of coal – the most carbon intensive fossil fuel….

          As James Hansen and colleagues showed in a paper published last year in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the occurrence of extremely hot events has risen by a factor of around 50 by comparison to the decades before 1980. …

          It requires that they confront some of the powerful narratives that have shaped Australians’ view of themselves, just as we in the United Kingdom must challenge our own founding myths. In Australia’s case, climate change clashes with a story of great cultural power: of a land of opportunity, in which progress is limited only by the rate at which natural resources can be extracted; in which this accelerating extraction leads to the inexorable improvement of the lives of its people.

          However, while Monbiot’s article title promises a “new politics” the article doesn’t live up to that, and Gillard goes no further than acknowledging that a warming planet is a problem for Aussie’s future.

        • klem 3.3.3.2

          Exactly, the deniers are not merely leading it, they have completely dominated and totally won it.

          cheers

    • Jenny 3.4

      The Colour Purple

      http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/australia/8152723/NSW-under-catastrophic-fire-threat

      The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has added extra colours to its temperature scale for the next week, lifting it to 54 degrees.

      That was well above the all-time record temperature of 50.7 degrees reached on January 2, 1960 at Oodnadatta Airport in South Australia – and the forecast outlook is starting to deploy the new colours.

      While recent days have seen Australian temperature maps displaying maximums ranging from 40 degrees to 48 degrees – depicted in the colour scheme as burnt orange to black – both next Sunday and Monday are now showing regions likely to hit 50 degrees or more, coloured purple.

      “The scale has just been increased today and I would anticipate it is because the forecast coming from the bureau’s model is showing temperatures in excess of 50 degrees,” said David Jones, head of the bureau’s climate monitoring and prediction unit.

      stuff.co.nz

      • karol 3.4.1

        That article doesn’t directly link the adding of colours to the scale, with a warming planet. Other articles do, like this one in the Independent:

        This is thought to be the first time that any country in the world has actually redrawn its charts to take account of temperatures which are thought likely to go off the scale which had been previously applied, and climate scientists indicated it was a warning for the future.

        ‘”The current heatwave – in terms of its duration, its intensity and its extent – is unprecedented in our records,” said the Bureau of Meteorology’s manager of climate monitoring and prediction, David Jones.

        ”Clearly, the climate system is responding to the background warming trend. Everything that happens in the climate system now is taking place on a planet which is a degree hotter than it used to be.”

  4. RedBat 4

    The ‘Market’ (whatever that is) will not, but socialism will?

    • mike e vipe e 4.1

      redbat the market will but it will be to late as with the gfc it will collapse along with life as we know it. Mad Max style!

  5. Bill 5

    From one of the linked articles

    Global warming is a quintessential “public goods” problem.

    (Stiglitz)

    What the fuck does that even mean? Global warming is the direct result of extracting carbon that was buried underground millions of years ago, burning it and putting it all back into the atmosphere. I mean, it’s pretty simple, isn’t it?

    Meanwhile poverty is a direct result of capitalism and it’s inherent market systems that ensure a mis-allocation of resources and of the access to them.

    And Stilgitz reckons that if only we reconfigure the focus of the market economy then everything will be tickety-boo? That’s so disconnected as to deserve being filed under the category ‘Of The Absurd and Insane’ and then just forgotten about.

    • karol 5.1

      Stiglitz is a respected economist, and has some following on the left – mainly because these days he’s against unfettered free markets. He favours a balance between government intervention and market provisions. However, while his constantly evolving theories offer a critique of “neoliberalism”, he doesn’t seem to favour an end to capitalism – just wants a better regulated one

      His linked article is a problem because it flicks over a range of issues, and assumes some background knowledge of economics. However, I think he does correctly identify the inter-linked problems of global economic, social and environmental realities, and that the dominant free-market approaches won’t solve them. It’s his solutions that are open to question. He does seem to still be favouring ‘growth” over steady state.

      A quick online search throws up a range of links about “public goods” in economic theories.
      Climate change, or rather achieving climate stability, is a global public good that present very difficult problems. Public goods are are goods/services that need to be available to all, and there should be no competition over access – once provided they are available to all.

      Climate stability is a global public good. Public goods at a national level (e.g. public broadcasting) are provided by a mix of taxes, pricing mechanism etc. Doing this at an international level is a big problem. According to this link, it means that many people are likely to leave it to others to solve – if someone makes provisions for climate stability, then we all benefit – so why not wait for someone else pay for it?

      William Nordhaus (1999) argues that markets can’t solve global public good problems. Usually they are solved by treeaties (eg whaling or limiting ozone depletion). He looks at Kyoto, and back then could see it wouldn’t work: it’s way too expensive, has no rationale based in economic or environmental policies, it’s wasteful. Alternatively he argues for using pricing or taxes, rather than limiting emissions. He focuses on a carbon tax, but isn’t totally keen on that either. But he seems more keen on market type approaches (pricing/taxes) over command and control ones.

      So, Stiglitz (and others) is looking for an alternative (global) structure as a way to respond to climate change. But, most still seem to be looking for a solution within capitalism.

      • Bill 5.1.1

        My problem is this dressing up of obvious and simple problems in verbal garbage that is then presented back to us in ways that suggest ‘great minds’ are required to comprehend and solve said problems.

        It ain’t that complicated.

        Taking their hocus-pocus at face value- the greatest ‘public good’ then, is to kill off those things that are creating global warming and inequality. Yes? So, end the burning of fossil fuels and, with that, the market economy that cannot function without burning massive quantities of fossil fuels.

        That gives us affirmative action on global warming and poverty/inequality. Two birds with one stone. Simple.

        • karol 5.1.1.1

          Well, yes. It should be that simple. It’s made complicated because so many governments, economists, etc, are looking for a way to deal with these problems while still retaining capitalism. They want to find some prescription that can be applied globally, that won’t upset the capitalists too much.

          • Colonial Viper 5.1.1.1.1

            It’s made complicated because so many governments, economists, etc,

            Those who receive the most privilege, advantage and wealth from today’s system are amongst those most likely to resist real change. Either actively or passively.

            One other aspect is: we still have sufficient wealth and energy in the system to (barely) maintain high levels of hyper-complexity in our governmental, academic and economic activity. Hence Stiglitz et al feel they still have time to pontificate endlessly and demonstrate their worth in a dozen new journal papers over the next 5 years.

            What I see Bill advocating is perfectly sensible – collapse to simplicity right here right now, and avoid the rush (hat tip John Michael Greer). And if idiot governments refuse to take those steps in a timely manner, we do what we can to simplify and make more durable our own lives, homes and local communities.

            • Populuxe1 5.1.1.1.1.1

              However no democratic government on earth is going to be able to sell that to their voters. Hi everybody, we’re going to knock your standard of living back one or two centuries – vote for us. Nah. Think of something else. The only way you could do it would be a dictatorship, something all right-thinking people would rightly reject out of hand.

              • Colonial Viper

                In general, you’re spot on. After all, economic growth is right around the corner. Or maybe the corner after that. Or the one after that.

                The only way you could do it would be a dictatorship, something all right-thinking people would rightly reject out of hand.

                Expect to see multiple instances of “emergency powers” being used in ‘developed nations’ over the next 10 years.

                • Populuxe1

                  I live in Christchurch. I see it every fucking day.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    Hi everybody, we’re going to knock your standard of living back one or two centuries – vote for us. Nah.

                    By the way, if NZ does it right, we’d only need to reduce our levels of consumption and energy use back to the 1950’s or 1960’s, and we’d still have many elements of advanced technology. It’d be a good life. But we have to get ready now.

  6. Populuxe1 6

    Bush fires are probably not the best lead in for a piece about climate change and poverty, what with bush fires having always been a seasonal state of affairs in Australia – at least since the Eucalyptus evolved into it’s current explosive form – and the fact that the Australian (or for that matter American) suburbs most affected by bush fires are usually the most affluent (ie, can afford to live surrounded by all that nature).

    • klem 6.1

      Don’t tell that to the left leaning greenies, they might learn something.

      • karol 6.1.1

        *sigh* Did you and Pop read the articles and quotes from them about Aussies fires and climate change? They are saying fires in Aussie always existed, and that they happen under certain conditions. They then say, they will be more prevalent with higher temperatures. As I quoted in the post above:

        An average increase in summer temperatures will increase the frequency of bushfires, perhaps exponentially.

        • klem 6.1.1.1

          “..fires in Aussie always existed, and that they happen under certain conditions.”

          Conditions, like a car and a cigarette. In North America when someone tosses a cigarette from their car, it starts a bushfire. When someone in Australia tosses a cigarette from their car, its called climate change.

  7. Colonial Weka 7

    Here’s one for bad12 😉

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/temperatures-off-the-charts-as-australia-turns-deep-purple-20130108-2ce33.html

    “The Bureau of Meteorology’s interactive weather forecasting chart has added new colours – deep purple and pink – to extend its previous temperature range that had been capped at 50 degrees.

    The range now extends to 54 degrees – well above the all-time record temperature of 50.7 degrees reached on January 2, 1960 at Oodnadatta Airport in South Australia – and, perhaps worringly, the forecast outlook is starting to deploy the new colours.
    Advertisement
    “The scale has just been increased today and I would anticipate it is because the forecast coming from the bureau’s model is showing temperatures in excess of 50 degrees,” David Jones, head of the bureau’s climate monitoring and prediction unit, said.”

    • klem 7.1

      Wow, only 54 degrees. When I held my thermometer out there it read 62 degrees.

      Which one was correct?

    • bad12 7.2

      Yeah right, have seen that, why tho is it ‘one for me’, i have simply pointed out, as have others, that Australian bush-fires have been happening for 1000,s of years,

      Rather than point at bush-fires screeching climate change you should be worrying how much CO2 is pumped into the air year on year by these fires and those in the US and Africa…

  8. Rogue Trooper 8

    Well, an overview of the world sharemarkets suggest they’re not bovverd.

  9. infused 9

    Yeah, because this never happened hundreds of years ago. This is the reason no one takes posts on climate change seriously. Because you link it to some bullshit.

    I cringe every time there is some type of extreme climate, as I know it will be follow by countless, retarded articles on climate change.

    • Colonial Viper 9.1

      Try shifting your focus further than the tip of your nose.

    • One Tāne Huna 9.2

      Infused:

      The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3σ) warmer than the climatology of the 1951–1980 base period. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth’s surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10% of the land area.

      Hansen and Sato, Perception of Climate Change. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2012 September 11; 109(37): E2415-E2423.

      The data used covers the period up to 2010. In 2012, 3,215 high-temperature records were broken or tied in the US, and record-breaking Australian temperatures just yesterday required new colours to be added at the top of the scale.

      Karol’s post is entirely apposite

  10. Galeandra 10

    infused tries confused.
    ( ‘retarded’ is just her way of describing anything she doesn’t agree with. )

    Pity about the indications of a mid-century 3+ degree temperature rise.
    Just a super-conspiracy concocted by those ivory-tower dullards scattered across the globe who rort all us honest-to-God job-creators through their pointless studies on melting ice and methane plumes?

    • karol 10.1

      How can there be such a conspiracy, when, in the wealthiest of nations, the climate deniers are given the strongest public voice?

      A US mediamatters study shows that evidence of climate change is being marginalised in the MSM:

      Study: Warmest Year on Record Received Cool Climate Coverage

      A Media Matters analysis finds that news coverage of climate change on ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX remained low in 2012 despite record temperatures and a series of extreme weather events in the U.S. When the Sunday shows did discuss climate change, scientists were shut out of the debate while Republican politicians were given a platform to question the science.

  11. Jan Freed 11

    I wonder how many cynics simply just don’t give a damn about what happens to the victims in Bangladesh, or the Phillipines, or whether we, the emitting nations, are the cause of the extremes. They are poor, brown and far far away.

    “Screw it!”, they crow; “turn up the A/C,blah, blah, blah” (O, what dashing, swashbuckling, indifference)

    I am reminded of Psalm 41: “Happy is the man who considereth the poor; the Lord will deliver him in the day of evil”

    • karol 11.1

      A good point, Jan. It does look like those that are well off are doing their best to maintain their privilege – perhaps hoping if there is a climate-driven economic decline, they’ll be alright & will leave the least well-off to suffer the worst effects.

    • >I wonder how many cynics simply just don’t give a damn about what happens to the victims in Bangladesh, or the Phillipines<

      Most people …. well about 99.6% don't even give a flying fuck about their own children, let alone some pore bugger in another country.
      And that goes for all politicians, and all local governments, they know every thing they do is going to kill future generations, but they chose to ignore the facts.
      This is just one example of some of the information they have been given and have ignored, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cd1Y3u-4SUk I don't know why Kevin bothers.
      And lets not forget the media.

      Got to ask Australia "Hot enough for ya cobber?" ….. not sure how our wheat and rice is growing at the moment?

  12. No if buts or maybes ……. quite simply we are SCREWED.

    http://guymcpherson.com/2013/01/climate-change-summary-and-update/

    Climate-change summary and update

    Sun, Jan 6, 2013

    ——————————-SNIP—————————————–

    Large-scale assessments

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (late 2007): 1 C by 2100

    Hadley Centre for Meteorological Research (late 2008): 2 C by 2100

    United Nations Environment Programme (mid 2009): 3.5 C by 2100

    Hadley Centre for Meteorological Research (October 2009): 4 C by 2060

    Global Carbon Project, Copenhagen Diagnosis (November 2009): 6 C, 7 C by 2100

    International Energy Agency (November 2010): 3.5 C by 2035 2100

    United Nations Environment Programme (December 2010): up to 5 C by 2050

    —————————————————————————

    Positive feedbacks

    Methane hydrates are bubbling out the Arctic Ocean (Science, March 2010)

    Warm Atlantic water is defrosting the Arctic as it shoots through the Fram Strait (Science, January 2011)

    Siberian methane vents have increased in size from less than a meter across in the summer of 2010 to about a kilometer across in 2011 (Tellus, February 2011)

    Drought in the Amazon triggered the release of more carbon than the United States in 2010 (Science, February 2011)

    Peat in the world’s boreal forests is decomposing at an astonishing rate (Nature Communications, November 2011)

    Methane is being released from the Antarctic, too (Nature, August 2012)

    Russian forest and bog fires are growing (NASA, August 2012)

    Cracking of glaciers accelerates in the presence of increased carbon dioxide (Journal of Physics D: Applied Physics, October 2012)

    Arctic drilling was fast-tracked by the Obama administration during the summer of 2012

    As nearly as I can distinguish, only the latter feedback process is reversible. Once you pull the tab on the can of beer, there’s no keeping the carbon dioxide from bubbling up and out

  13. Mark 13

    Just checked in to visit The Standard, God you people are deluded..
    ”There are ominous signs that the earth’s weather patterns have begun to change and cool dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production – with serious political implications for just about every nation on earth. The drop in food production could begin quite soon. The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologist are hard-pressed to keep up with it.” – Newsweek, April 28, (1975)

    “This cooling has already killed hundreds of thousands of people. If it continues and no strong action is taken, it will cause world famine, world chaos and world war, and this could all come about before the year 2000.” – Lowell Ponte “The Cooling” (1976)

    “The continued rapid cooling of the earth since WWII is in accord with the increase in global air pollution associated with industrialization, mechanization, urbanization and exploding population.” – Reid Bryson, Global Ecology (1971)

    “The battle to feed humanity is over. In the 1970s, the world will undergo famines. Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. Population control is the only answer.” – Prof. Paul Ehrlich – The Population Bomb (1968)

    “In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish.” – Prof. Paul Ehrlich, Earth Day (1970)

    “This cooling trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century.” – Peter Gwynne, climatologist, Newsweek (1976)

    “If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder by the year 2000…This is about twice what it would take to put us in an ice age.” – Kenneth Watt, Earth Day (1970)

    • Yes Mark in the 70’s the CO2 level was approaching 316 ppm, the climatologists etc looked back over the past 400,000 years or so and found that each time the planet hit 316 (or thereabouts) it went into a cooling period or ice age, but due to our so called intelligence we kept adding more CO2, so now we are approaching 400ppm, and looking like heading for 450+
      Sorry to cause you to suffer cognitive dissonance.

    • This might help you Mark.

    • bad12 13.3

      LOLZ, stop that you heretic…

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    To Protect and Serve: When the Prime Minister finds herself enmeshed in the coils of a full-blown political scandal, her colleagues and party comrades have only one priority: to release her as swiftly – and with as little lasting injury – as possible. Is this what Jacinda Ardern’s colleagues and ...
    2 days ago
  • The rot at the top.
    When military leaders cover up and lie to elected civilian authorities, the foundation of democratic civil-military relations is undermined because it is those authorities who are entrusted to hold the military accountable to the public that they mutually serve. But this is only true if civilian political authorities take their ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    2 days ago
  • Challenging the voting age in court
    The Make It 16 campaign to lower the voting age is launching this afternoon, and they have already announced plans to challenge the law in court:The campaign, named "Make it 16" will launch at Parliament on Friday, with plans to take their case to the High Court, testing the rights ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Israel’s elections herald a long siesta
    by Daphna Whitmore The long years of Netanyahu’s reign are drawing to an end. For years he has epitomized reactionary zionism as he oversaw hundreds of thousands of Jewish settlers seize land in the West Bank. There are now 700,000 settlers, putting an end to the myth that Israel was ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 days ago
  • Petrol companies promise prices will come back down once peace is restored to the Middle East
    BP, Z and Mobil all insist that petrol price hikes are temporary, “in a very literal sense.” The nation’s major petrol providers are trying to allay customer fears over prices, promising that they’ll move to lower them again “immediately” when the Middle East is returned to its formerly peaceful state. ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    3 days ago
  • All Blacks unveil boat for Rugby World Cup 2019
    South African coach Rassie Erasmus says he has no idea what they’re going to do about the boat. In a highly anticipated press conference this afternoon, All Blacks coach Steve Hansen has finally unveiled the team’s boat for its Rugby World Cup 2019 campaign. In a press conference that went ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    3 days ago
  • An increasingly shoddy coverup
    The Operation Burnham inquiry continued to question senior NZDF staff today, and their shoddy coverup over their knowledge of civilian casualties continue to fall apart. If you recall, first, we were asked to believe that it was all a series of "mistakes and errors": a senior officer with multiple degrees ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • If we are to avoid making the earth uninhabitable, we need to rapidly decarbonise our civilisation, and cut emissions to zero as quickly as possible. This seems like an impossible task, but its not. Pushing hard on a few technologies and trends will let us halve emissions in a decade:Greenhouse ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • A further attack on transparency
    The Local Government Act 2002 Amendment Bill (No 2) had part of its committee stage yesterday. its a generally tedious bill about the nitty-gritty of local government reorganisation. But it includes a clause making the Local Government Commission subject to the Ombudsmen Act, and hence the OIA. Great! Except of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Ihumātao and Treaty settlements
    Yesterday Ihumātao's mana whenua reached a consensus that they would like their land back, and asked the government to negotiate with Fletcher's for its return. The government's response? Try and undermine that consensus, while talking about how doing anything would undermine existing Treaty settlements. The first is just more bad ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Protecting our history
    Its Suffrage Day, the 126th anniversary of women winning the right to vote (but not stand in elections) in New Zealand. And to celebrate, the government has bought Kate Sheppard's house in Christchurch:The government has bought Kate Sheppard's former home in Christchurch for more than $4 million. The Ilam villa ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Climate Change: Ostracising the coal-burners
    The UN climate summit is happening in new York next week, and unlike previous years, coal-burners and denier-states are not being invited to speak:Leading economies such as Japan and Australia will not be invited to speak at next week’s crunch UN climate change summit, as their continued support for coal ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Jojo Tamihere Salutes Herr Goff.
    Get Back Jojo! The elation in Mayor Phil Goff’s camp may be easily imagined as they watched social media light up in indignation at challenger John Tamihere’s "Sieg Heil to that" quip. Just when JT’s notoriously right-wing, sexist and homophobic stains were beginning to fade back into his ‘colourful’ past, ...
    3 days ago
  • Hard News: A fun but flawed weed documentary
    Patrick Gower is good value when he's high. Not that I've ever, you know, got stoned with him. But in the second part of his documentary Patrick Gower on Weed, he does what you'd expect in a modern weed documentary and immerses himself – first with a doctor, then a ...
    3 days ago
  • Candidate Survey: Western Bay of Plenty – Local Body Elections 2019
    We surveyed candidates on their attitudes to issues facing the Western Bay Region, find out what they think: “Closing the Gap” Tauranga, one of the area groups of Income Equality Aotearoa NZ Inc., has surveyed all candidates in the three local body elections to discover attitudes to some basic issues ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    4 days ago
  • Project Nettie calls on scientists to defend biology
    Please spread widely, and sign, to support science and rationalism over the new irrationalism sweeping universities and institutions.  PROJECT NETTIE Sexual reproduction, the generation of offspring by fusion of genetic material from two different individuals, evolved over 1 billion years ago. It is the reproductive strategy of all higher animals ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    4 days ago
  • I’m glad I don’t live in Auckland
    Just when I was thinking that Palmerston North's mayoral race (which includes a convicted child molester / public wanker and a convicted child beater) was the worst in the country, Auckland mayoral candidate John Tamihere opened his mouth:Auckland mayoral candidate John Tamihere is being slammed for using the words "sieg ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Index of Power Update, 2018-19: China #2
    We reprint below an article from the excellent website the Economics of Imperialism by Tony Norfield This is an update of the statistics for my Index of Power, using data for 2018-19 and discussing what a country’s ranking reflects. The major change is that China’s rank has shifted up and ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    4 days ago
  • Climate Change: A history lesson
    Why is New Zealand climate change policy so crap? The Herald this morning has a long article on the twists and turns of climate change policy in New Zealand [paywalled / depaywall script], which shows where we've been. The short version is that the government first began worrying about this ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • What the All Blacks Mean to Us
    The All Blacks have been, for more than a century, arguably the most successful International sports team in the world. But they are more than that; even for those Kiwis who are immune to the charms of rugby (and there are more than a few), the All Blacks are ambassadors ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    4 days ago
  • No one is born into the wrong body
    A short and incredibly powerful speech from a young lesbian woman. No one is born in the wrong body. ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    5 days ago
  • Contempt
    Back in June, the UK Court of Appeal ruled that that country's continued arms sales to Saudi Arabia were unlawful. So you'd expect that the UK government stopped approving them, right?Of course not:The government has apologised for breaching a court ruling against the sale of weapons to Saudi Arabia that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Covering up the cover-up
    Yesterday NZDF officials were put on the stand about the lies they had told over Operation Burnham, making implausible claims that it was all a big mistake. But along the way, we learned they had already been put on the spot about it by a previous Defence Minister, who had ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Not as important as they think they are
    Farmers have been whining a lot lately, about the methane targets in the Zero Carbon Bill, about Canterbury's proposed nitrogen limits, and about the government's new proposals to stop them from shitting in our lakes and rivers. These policies are "throwing farmers under the tractor", they will force farmers off ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Behind Every Good Woman Should Stand – Another Good Woman.
    Alone, Alone, All, All, Alone: To argue that the Prime Minister is the victim of her advisers’ failure to keep her informed may offer Jacinda some measure of exoneration – but only at the cost of casting her as a hopeless political ingénue. A star-dusted muppet, whose only purpose is to ...
    5 days ago
  • Poor quality, poorly educated kiddie ‘Journalists’ spreading fake news
    In times of hysteria about the “World coming to an end” and “rising sea levels” so-called ‘Journalists’ who can barely spell words longer than four letters are having a ball! Though the majority of the Public have worked out that manmade climate change is nothing short of pseudo-science, and the ...
    An average kiwiBy admin@averagekiwi.com
    5 days ago
  • Chris Trotter on the BFD
    I don't want to give pblicity to certain parts of the internet that are better left to fester in their own irrelevance (I know, a bit like this place) but the listing of Chris Trotter as a 'author' on Cameron Slater's spinoff website, the BFD requires some explanation.Now, I don't ...
    6 days ago
  • Sex is not a spectrum
    The text below is a Twitter thread by Heather Heying that explains the essence of sexual reproduction and it long evolutionary history. She is an evolutionary biologist and a “professor-in-exile” after she and her husband, Bret Weinstein, stood up to supporters of an enforced “Day of Absence” for white staff and teachers ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    6 days ago
  • Climate Change: Trees, aviation, and offsets
    With crunch time for new Zealand climate policy approaching, most of the New Zealand media have got on board with a global reporting effort to cover the issue. There's one strand of stories today about polling and what it shows about changing public attitudes to the crisis, but the strand ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Pissing-Off The Israelis Is A High-Risk Strategy.
    Dangerous Foes: For those readers of Bowalley Road who feel disposed to dismiss any prospect of an Israeli destabilisation of New Zealand politics, the example of the United Kingdom repays close attention. Ever since the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the British Labour Party, the Israelis have sanctioned, funded and ...
    6 days ago
  • Something to go to in Wellington
    Make It 16, the youth-led campaign to lower New Zealand's voting age, is holding an official campaign launch at Parliament this Friday from 16:30. If you'd like to attend, you can register using EventBrite here. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • A founding member responds to Peace Action Wellington
    by Don Franks It was a lovely sunny Wellington afternoon with blue skies above  the beaches.  In Courtenay Place, political activists packed out a stuffy upstairs room for an important meeting. The assembled pacifists, anarchists, communists and independent young radicals of Peace Action Wellington felt the need for a mission ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    6 days ago
  • “Mistakes and errors”
    Current and former NZDF top brass are being publicly grilled this week by the hit and run inquiry over their public responses to allegations of civilian casualties. Previously, they've claimed there were no casualties, a position which led them to lie to Ministers and to the public. Now, they're saying ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • “Homosexuality is same-sex attraction and relationships, not heterosexuals with delusions of gende...
    by Rafael D. Quiles (gender-critical gay man from Puerto Rico) The writing on the wall is right in people’s faces and people just don’t see it or don’t want to. What could actually possess a heterosexual male to want to feminize himself and claim that he is a lesbian? Because ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    7 days ago
  • Trump: “Where’s my favourite dictator?”
    From the Wall Street Journal:Inside a room of the ornately decorated Hotel du Palais during last month’s Group of Seven summit in Biarritz, France, President Trump awaited a meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi. Mr. Trump looked over a gathering of American and Egyptian officials and called out in ...
    7 days ago
  • Magdalen Burns, 1983-2019, fighter for women’s liberation
    by the Redline blog collective At Redline we are very saddened to hear of the death of Magdalen Burns who passed away on the morning of Friday, September 13 (British time). Magdalen was a great fighter for the rights of women in general and lesbian women in particular, a defender ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Parliament and the Executive
    The Brexit issue has certainly brought with it a series of apparently difficult constitutional issues, many of them concerning the respective roles of the executive and parliament. Most of them arise because of the unwillingness of MPs, despite their professions to the contrary, to be bound by a constitutional rarity ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • The Abigail Article; Martyn Bradbury’s Article, and My Response
    . . This blogpost is different to my usual format of reporting on issues… Since July 1011, I have blogged on a variety of political issues; near always political and/or environmental; mostly highly critical of the previous National Government. Other issues included Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands and repression of ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    1 week ago
  • Police will have to wear silly Buckingham Palace hats from now on, says Police Minister
    Those close to the Police Minister believe the initiative may be the result of Nash “seeing a great deal” on AliExpress. In a move that comes seemingly out of nowhere, Police Minister Stuart Nash announced this afternoon that he expects all frontline staff to don bearskin hats, famously worn by ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • A sensible crackdown
    The government has released its Arms Legislation Bill, containing the second tranche of changes to gun laws following the March 15 massacre. And it all looks quite sensible: a national gun register, higher penalties for illegal possession and dealing, tighter restrictions on arms dealers and shooting clubs, and a shorter ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • California bans private prisons
    Private prisons are a stain on humanity. Prison operators explicitly profit from human misery, then lobby for longer prisons terms so they can keep on profiting. And in the US, prison companies run not only local and state prisons, but also Donald Trump's immigration concentration camps. Faced with this moral ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Why PPPs are a bad idea
    When National was in power, they were very keen on Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) - basicly, using private companies to finance public infrastructure as a way of hiding debt from the public. They were keen on using them for everything - roads, schools, hospitals. But as the UK shows, that "service" ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • A Movement That No Longer Moves.
    Moving And Shaking: There was a time when people spoke matter-of-factly about the “labour movement” – a political phenomenon understood to embrace much more than the Labour Party. Included within the term’s definition was the whole trade union movement – many of whose members looked upon the Labour Party as ...
    1 week ago
  • NZ ‘left’ politically embracing extreme postmodernism
    by Philip Ferguson Much of the left, even people who formally identify as marxists, have collapsed politically in the face of postmodern gender theory of the sort pioneered by American philosopher Judith Butler. For Butler even biological sex is socially constructed. “If the immutable character of sex is contested, perhaps ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • The obvious question
    The media is reporting that the (alleged) Labour party sexual assaulter has resigned from their job at Parliament, which means hopefully he won't be turning up there making people feel unsafe in future. Good. But as with everything about this scandal, it just raises other questions. Most significantly: why the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • The moment I found out that you found out, I acted swiftly
    By Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern I am every bit as angry as you are. I am every bit as disappointed as you must be. The people with power, oversight and the ability to do something about these processes within the Labour Party should be ashamed. Whoever those people are, I ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • This is why people hate property developers
    Property developers think there is an "oversupply" of houses in Auckland:High turnover rates and falling prices may be a sign that there are too many new houses going in to some parts of Auckland, commentators say. [...] Property developer David Whitburn said there was a "bit of an oversupply" in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Australia to Pacific: “Fuck you, you can all drown”
    World leaders are meeting in New York in two weeks for the 2019 Climate Action Summit, where they are expected to announce new and more ambitious targets to stop the world from burning. But the Australian Prime Minister won't be there, despite being in the USA at the time:Scott Morrison ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Implausible ignorance
    Labour Party president Nigel Haworth resigned yesterday over the party's sexual assault scandal. But while that's good news, its unlikely to take away the stench of a coverup. Because according to Paula Bennett in Parliament yesterday, pretty much everyone in the Prime Minister's office was involved as well:I have been ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Labour’s Fatal Flaw.
     Two-Faced? Labour insiders' commitment to the neoliberal status quo puts them at odds with their party’s membership; its trade union affiliates; and a majority of Labour voters, but this only serves to strengthen the perception they have of themselves as a special elite. Among the lesser breeds, they’ll talk up a ...
    1 week ago
  • Ten reasons the Tories do NOT want an election
    There has been a lot of talk about Boris Johnson wanting an election, and he has blustered with great gusto about 'chicken' Jeremy Corbyn refusing one, but I think there are many reasons why he is secretly glad he has been refused the opportunity:The Tories are an utter rabble,tearing themselves ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Prorogation Illegal, rule Scottish judges
    Scottish appeal court judges have declared that Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament in the run-up to the October Brexit deadline is unlawful. The three judges, chaired by Lord Carloway, Scotland’s most senior judge, overturned an earlier ruling that the courts did not have the powers to interfere in the prime ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Let me explain what I meant by Everyday New Zealanders
    By Simon Bridges. The following is a press release from the office of Simon Bridges, leader of The National Party. Key ora, New Zealand. Happy Maori Language Week. Look, I’m writing to you today because I want to clear something up. There’s been a lot of kerfuffle around some things ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Yes, the SIS is subject to the Public Records Act
    I understand there's some stuff going round about how the SIS "was removed from the list of public offices covered by the Public Records Act in 2017". The context of course being their records derived from US torture, which will be disposed of or sealed. The good news is that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • An evidence-based discussion of the Canadian fluoride/IQ study
    Dr. Christopher Labos and Jonathan Jarry discuss the recent Canadian fluoride/IQ research. They provide an expert analysis of the paper and its problems. Click on image to go to podcast. The critical debate about the recent ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate Change: Australia in denial
    Australia is burning down again, and meanwhile its natural disaster minister is denying climate change:Australia’s minister responsible for drought and natural disasters, David Littleproud, has said that he doesn’t “know if climate change is manmade”. Clarifying earlier comments that the question is “irrelevant” when considering the Coalition government’s response to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Philippines activist speaking on the Duterte tyranny
    Auckland Philippines Solidarity is excited to host Professor Judy Taguiwalo for a speaking tour of NZ in September. She is a well-known activist in the Philippines and was a political prisoner under the Marcos dictatorship. Professor Taguiwalo briefly served as a Cabinet member under President Duterte but was forced from ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Disgust
    I have no special insights to offer on the Labour sexual assault coverup. All I have is disgust. Disgust that an organisation could fail its people so badly. Disgust that they punished the victims rather than the perpetrator. Disgust that its party hacks are apparently blaming the victims for demanding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Speak Up for Women calls out Greens’ censorship
    This open letter to the Green Party was penned after an opinion piece by Jill Abigail, a feminist and founding member of the party, was censored by the Greens’ leadership. (Redline has reprinted her article here).The intolerance of the Green Party leaders and their acceptance of the misogyny of gender ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Member’s Day: End of Life Choice, part 3
    Today is a Member's day, and David Seymour's End of Life Choice Bill continues its slow crawl through its committee stage. They're spending the whole day on it today, though the first hour is likely to be spent on voting left over from last time. After that they'll move on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Flight to Los Angeles turned back after passengers decide they don’t want to go anymore
    An ambitious plan to fly to Los Angeles petered out into a brief sight-seeing trip and a desire to return home and get some sleep before work tomorrow. Air New Zealand has confirmed a flight to Los Angeles last night was turned back about a quarter of the way into ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Indigenous Futures: defuturing and futuring – an analytical framework for policy development?
    There appears to be consensus – by omission – that the concept of indigenous futures should be accepted at face value. So I scavenged the internet to see if I could locate an academic descriptor or a framework around how we think about it as a concept, and whether it ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    2 weeks ago
  • Cadbury rumoured to be releasing the Pineapple Trump
    Here’s another novelty chocolate to shove in your gob, New Zealand Cadbury could be seeking to make itself great again with a rumoured new release: Pineapple Trumps, a spin on its classic chocolate-encased pineapple treat and do-it-yourself tooth remover. The global confectionery manufacturer and bumbling “before” character in an infomercial, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • The coming resource war.
    During my time in the Pentagon I had the privilege of sitting down with military leaders and defence and security officials from a variety of Latin American nations. Sometimes I was present as a subordinate assistant to a senior US defence department official, sometimes as part of a delegation that ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    2 weeks ago
  • Māori Language Week with The Civilian
    Kia ora, Aotearoa. It’s that magical time of year. Te Wiki o te Reo Māori. In English, the week that frightens talk radio. As you probably know by now, all your favourite media outlets are participating, some more successfully than others. Stuff has changed its name to Puna for the ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Will Horizons act on climate change?
    Local body elections are coming up next month. And it looks like all Palmerston North candidates for Horizons (the Manawatu-Whanganui Regional Council) want to take action on climate change:Climate change is set to be a key issue in Palmerston North for the next three years if those wanting to get ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • BORA reform is stalled
    Eighteen months ago, the government promised to strengthen the Bill of Rights Act, by explicitly affirming the power of the courts to issue declarations of inconsistency and requiring Parliament to formally respond to them. So how's that going? I was curious, so I asked for all advice about the proposal. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Corbyn and Brexit
    As the Brexit saga staggers on, the focus is naturally enough on the Prime Minister and his attempts to achieve Brexit “do or die”. But the role played by the Leader of the Opposition is of almost equal interest and complexity. The first problem for Jeremy Corbyn is that he ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    2 weeks ago
  • A ditch for him to die in
    Last week, English Prime Minister Boris Johnson boldly declared that he would rather die be dead in a ditch than delay Brexit. Unfortunately for him, the UK parliament accepted the challenge, and promptly dug one for him. The "rebellion bill" requires him to ask for and secure yet another temporary ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Warning! Warning! Danger Jacinda Ardern! Danger Marama Davidson! Warning!
    Lost In Political Space: The most important takeaway from this latest Labour sexual assault scandal, which (if I may paraphrase Nixon’s White House counsel’s, John Dean’s, infamous description of Watergate) is “growing like a cancer” on the premiership, is the Labour Party organisation’s extraordinary professional paralysis in the face of ...
    2 weeks ago

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