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notices and features - Date published:
5:30 pm, December 5th, 2022 - 34 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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Now I put this on twitter, and ever since I've been getting nothing but porn. Shows how misogynistic the people who wrote the algorithm are. And how much they lack a basic understanding of…
TVNZ poll:
Headline story: Nats plus ACT win.
Real story: Luxon is single-handedly reviving Winston. It didn't seem possible, but the old truth always stands: a vacuum must be filled.
Emptiness is a dumb National strategy, and it's going to cost them.
tinky-linky?
Saw the commentary on TVNZ but not the result. OMG. There’s been a big swing to National. Why?
Picked up RNZ news:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/480135/latest-political-poll-has-labour-national-locked-in-head-to-head-battle
Lesson: Never believe anything on TVNZ, Newshub, ZB radio et al. Every poll skewed in interpretation to favour the Nats. Whatshername on TV1… oh yes Jessica Mutch, was positively gleeful with her ‘interpretation’.
Edit: I see Willie Jackson is getting shit for telling the truth on yesterday morning's Q&A.
Roll on the merger between TVNZ and RNZ.
You might want to check the numbers again Anne
No link yet but Nat up 1% 38% Labour down 1% 33%
Adern leads Luxon as preferred leader approx 29 – 22%
Advantage to the right but after such a piss poor month for the Govt that is not a poor result.
The problem will compound if we continue to have piss poor months.
When Ardern has to intervene – I don't think you can describe Jackson as getting shit for telling the truth.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/130674385/pm-steps-in-after-concerns-raised-from-willie-jacksons-rnztvnz-merger-interview
Latest 1 News-Kantar poll is out.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/latest-political-poll-jacinda-ardern-managing-expectations-ahead-of-poll/UYKCDGTKCBADZDKAWECMCZPNCQ/
Very little change – a slight drop for Labour, a slight rise for National. Right parties drawing slightly ahead (ACT 2% up). Greens no change.
NZF edging towards the 5% threshold.
The trend continues with tonight's poll, the left are down and the right are up.
I've been saying it for months, but Three waters will be the death of this government, you could also now put the RNZ/TVNZ merger into that category, given the publics disdain for the policy.
What's more important, forcing this through against the will of the majority and losing the election, only for NACT to reverse these policies. Or could Labour grow a brain, ditch these divisive policies and have a genuine chance of winning next year and hopefully another three budgets, where real transformational change can be delivered.
You won't get both…
Why are the left so willing to die on this hill when so much more could be achieved without it? Is it stubbornness, ideological, or are they really just that stupid?
I watched the Daily Blog Hamilton West Candidates debate tonight. Interesting on many fronts. A couple of times the Labour candidate was booed. The most notable was when she talked about Labours record on mental health. TBH I felt a bit sorry for her.
But yes I think Three Waters is deeply unpopular.
Yes, you don't often see that in NZ live political debates. Georgie Dansey copped a lot of flak tonight. It wouldn't have mattered who the Labour candidate was, the audience was fired up and ready to vent against the government.
Or they could communicate better. Why is 3 waters essential? HOW WILL IT SAVE MONEY? Surely they realise by now that this is crucial?
Lotsa banned cluster munitions.
https://en.missilery.info/missile/uraga/9m27k
https://twitter.com/Liberov/status/1599336173058818049
Given the awful publicity about terrible Cost of Living, rising interest rates house values etc etc this poll is quite good for the Government. And the 11% Undecided is significant.
And the constant bad spin by the Media, especially from a "neutral" Jessica, it could be much worse. Optimistic are we.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/130665610/new-poll-shows-national-and-act-in-comfortable-position-to-form-government
National and Act increasing their lead with NZ first verging on re-entering parliament. Its now been over six months of national leading Labour. Terrifying.
The government and it's tribal supporters can either go down with the ship and continue denying the Titanic is sinking by defending and apologizing for the govts inaction, out of touch coms and weird priorities during a time of major economic pain in NZ
Or the govt and it's tribal supporters can do some soul searching and start fighting to actually win the next election which is an existential crisis for the left.
Labour supporters with platforms like this blog need to start pushing for the government to actually fight and deliver, not just defend it cos it's our team.
The labour government needs to reset, bad, retake the narrative and start announcing some bold univeral popular, populist reforms and policies that are non inflationary spending just like the Biden administration recently did.
A cheap and extremely popular populist policy would be universal dental at a price of just $1 billion annually it would cement this governments legacy and be a game changer
It would cost 1/5 of the increased tax take we get due to the govt increasing wages but not adjusting the tax thresholds.
Something major and revolutionary like that will take back the narrative and convince the voters that this is more than just a party of tired , visionless technocratic managers and tell the public they actually meant it when they said they'd be transformational.
Enough defending this govt it's time to give constructive criticism and demand they start delivering on their promises to make this country a fairer more equal place (so far they've made it less fair and less equal and NZ already was pretty unfair)
Universal dental is already labour party policy, it is incredibly popular, and if the govt announced something like that the media narrative would be a flurry of excitement, it's time labour and it's tribalist supporters to step up and deliver unless we wanna be outmaneuvered on the left by Joe Bidens democrats who started announcing major policies out of nowhere and changed the narrative and brought out a high turn out.
Lets actually do this. For once.
Orrrrr we can continue being the party of "no" and "can't" and waste a historic majority solely on administrative and bureaucratic reforms that benefit noone and retreat to our echo chambers and fiddle while Rome burns.
Correy, I have made the point previously that the Govt have spent $11.1 billon on the new health authority. Most people don't give a toss about this, but they know about people who can't get into a GPs practice, or young nurses going to Australia or waiting, waiting too long for elective surgery. And they can see that Mike King was able to provide free counselling for many, while the Govts record on this is tardy to say the least.
As I commented earlier on this thread I watched the candidates for Hamilton West tonight, and the Labour woman was booed when she talked about their record on mental health.
I am/was a Labour voter, but I have given up on them. I am profoundly disillusioned and I can't imagine what they could do that would change this.
https://www.health.govt.nz/about-ministry/what-we-do/budget-2022-vote-health
AJ, good to see the 'real oil' about this so called set-up cost of $11.1b.
First of all it is over 4 years.
I wonder what parts of the $1.8b & the $1.3b for historic and future cost pressures is the set-up cost?
seems to be pretty much operational that I can see
increase investment across the system in response to a growing and ageing population, inflation, wage and price pressures, and changes in health technologies and clinical practice.
Perhaps it is in these figures?
new operational funding of $5.1 billion and ‘contingency’ funding of up to $6.0 billion.
Nope.
NB over 4 years,
NB 'contingency' does not mean it will be spent. It is good accountancy practice.
Collins Dictionary
https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/contingency
'1. VARIABLE NOUN
A contingency is something that might happen in the future.
[formal]
I need to examine all possible contingencies.
Synonyms: possibility, happening, chance, event More Synonyms of contingency
A contingency plan or measure is one that is intended to be used if a possible situation actually occurs.
[formal]
We have contingency plans'.
Do I think the talk/rumour of $11.1b set-up costs is incorrect?
Yep
Universal dental would create a massive dentist shortage overnight. That would go nicely with the other health shortages wouldn't it.
Well is it then not lucky that we don't have universal dental care and only those with access to money can afford it. And if you are one of those unfortunate that don't have access to money buy some pliers at Mitre Ten and pull them teeth yourself.
Except that unmet dental needs do have an impact on general health and thus will place strain on the wider health system.
But yeah we would have a shortage of dentists and a free service would result in dentist surgeries establishing client registers and not taking on new people (albeit with a demand for migration of dentists).
One option is to do it all step by step
I wonder just how many health issues are created by not providing affordable dental care.
And two be honest, a regular visit at the dentists – every six month check up and a clean, would not need to be expensive but could save a lot of health dollars down track. Diabetes, Obesity, Heart Diseases etc, soft food – fast food, sugary drinks, etc all that is linked.
It might actually be cheaper to provide fee dental care.
Dude called it.
Be nice to know what the risk of newly diagnosed diabetes is post other viral infections.
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1599563767754678273
There is literature on this going back more than 50 years, a lot of papers published.
Evidence for a few different viruses being implicated (especially an enterovirus for Type I and Hep C for Type II). Quantum of increased risk looks quite large for these – as in the recent covid findings.
From here
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00912-y
there were reports about diabetes diagnoses post Covid in people who were previously healthy from the very beginning of the pandemic.
People were being inconvenienced and getting tired of masks and wanted to get back to normal so we traded mask mandates for a tsunami of ill health.
Well done us.
Unfortunately a little inevitable after the less dangerous omicron variant got around the vaccines. The consequence of infection diminishing resistance to other illness (an irony given some claim the vaccines themselves reduced general immunity).
And some forget early research was suggestive that coronavirus infection would lead to quicker ageing/decline in cell regeneration performance.
In the end the one is reminded of the importance of good health – nutrition, exercise and sleep, lifestyle managing stress – strong immunity (supplements of Vitamin D with aging or earlier with colour of skin and sufficiency of zinc for cell health).
Courtesy of vital immune responses likely jiggered for life.
https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/1599088361716580352
https://twitter.com/boretrol/status/1599660028436238339
Food Sources
Fortified breakfast cereals.
Pork.
Fish.
Beans, lentils.
Green peas.
Enriched cereals, breads, noodles, rice.
Sunflower seeds.
Yogurt.
Jan Logie announces she's bowing out of politics at the next election.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/12/senior-green-party-mp-jan-logie-announces-she-won-t-stand-in-2023-election.html
bishflap throwing fits all over twitter. off his head!