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5:30 pm, December 11th, 2018 - 53 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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Who are the Nats aiming at with this? https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/10-12-2018/simon-bridges-must-stop-pandering-to-the-alt-right-on-the-global-compact/
It is flaky. The theory is Bridges is trying to wedge Peters but it is really clumsy and makes them look like Breitbart reading loons.
Wonder if it is driven more by appealing to some of the party’s factions?
or funders.
Selling list places to anyone might have made some more rabid tories a bit angry. They might not change their vote, but with-holding cash would make the nats shit bricks.
hold me back! hold me back!
+1 @ McFlock
You say ‘rabid’, I say feral.
And that’s only because the feral right wing are still doing calculations and wondering how they can dress their thinking up nicely (even amongst their own ranks). If you pushed me hard enough, I’d say there’d be a Satchel (full of ill-gotten gains and notes for a future mercenary’s novel) and others busy on their calculators that go something along the lines:
1 chink = 2 nargies, and 1 chink = 1,000 slopes, and ……..
all the while feigning outrage at those “Chinese sounding names”.
the ‘names’ thing was an unprovoked self-inflicted wound from Labour. Best leave it.
Ah, Richard Harman reads it as wedging Winston First: http://politik.co.nz/en/content/politics/1486/ (apparently paywalled though my simple browser script-blocker seems to defeat that).
Wonder where Nat voters would go once they realise that?
NZF will be at 10-12% come next Election no doubts about it
How do you figure that?
Half the voters at the last election probably wanted Winston to keep National honest so a fair few of them won’t be happy with Winston and Nationals support is holding steady so where will the voters come from because it won’t be Labour with Jacinda as leader and I doubt many Green voters will go with Winston
Puckers
Colmar Brunton (29 September 2017)
https://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-who-should-nz-first-support-labour-or-national/
You and your facts. 🙂
You mean National 10-12%.
In Australia Scott Morrison and Andrew Scheer the Conservative Party leader in Canada both had a go at this too. All singing from the same songbook. If it’s the UN it must be bad.
Its very clear, National keep asking questions in the house that reflect more on their own failings when in govt. Today was no exception, tomorrow will be the same. Simon Bridges unwittingly keeps cross examining himself and his party’s past poor performance.
Meanwhile the Hosk plans to spend the holidays boning up on his questions in the faint hope he may trip up the PM next year. Not likely if this years spinouts are anything to go by.
The chooser of the image for tonights DR might think about saying taihoa on calling SB out. It is going very well thank you as things are so why not let sleeping dogs lie instead of falling to the temptation to kick whenever passing?
Nah, Bridges is a dickhead and should be kicked till he leaves. I say give each opposition MP a go at being leader and show them Nats up for the rotten, useless waste of space that they are.
No no keep going, the more Soimon is kicked the sooner he’s replaced by someone else…
National are at least over 40% with an unpopular leader so imagine what might happen if they get a leader that people like or at least respect or has recognition or…something
Bridges is the best of all the dickheads in the opposition, thats the big problem for the Nats.
We’ll take that under advisement
And it won’t be Judith Collins.
Judith’s lacklustre performance over the last few months must be concerning for her sycophants.
She used to have some charisma and energy, but now she just looks bored and uninspiring. She’s been in Parliament for 16 years and she still can’t get enough support from her colleagues. Paula’s a better leadership prospect now than tired worn out Judith.
Judith represents the past, not the future.
@Fireblade (3.2.1.2) … Agree with you re Judith Collins.
However I can’t see Paula as leader. She’s too lazy. Hasn’t achieved much, if anything at all as deputy leader of Natz that I can see, other than pulling odd faces and rolling her eyes in Parliament, if that can be considered as anything achievable!
You mean they are not at 46%?
I read someone say they were on 38%.
It wasn’t that long ago Labour had its own issues with internal polling, if you remember however if Nationals polling at 41% with an unpopular leader imagine what National could poll if he’s replaced by someone that can inspire (even Labour managed it, eventually) Nationals supporters
Anything could happen after a decade, a not so dickish head may even be found. Keep searching Nats.
I imagine they could get as high as 45% with a competent leader, PR. And assuming Winston sticks with Labour, National need 48.5% plus their Epsom charity case to even come close. However, I’ve already made the case that the next potential National PM isn’t currently in Parliament anyway. I mean, have you looked at the current Tory caucus? Not exactly a Ministry of All the Talents.
Well if a weeks a long time in politics a couple of years is an eternity
However its not guaranteed Winston, the Greens or both will be back in power given how most minor parties lose support (I suspect the Greens will get back in) and that would make things interesting
However heres a prediction for you, the next leaders debate will be between Jacinda, Nationals leader…and Winston
To win, National most likely need to make friends or hope Labour lose their friends.
To win, Labour just need to keep their friends.
It is true Nationals road back to power is hard no doubt about that but Labours certainly isn’t all smooth either
National does have the bonus that that they ousted for being “bad” as such, the economy was running well, unemployment was low and all that so the lingering feelings of resentment arn’t there or at least as bad as other former governments
Just reminds me of 2008.
Reasonably popular new coalition government with a few minor problems and new policies that infuriate the faithful on the other side. The opposition with major issues in their ranks and leaking like a sieve with barely concealed blood-letting and slowly descending in the polls. Less in the first term than they did in later terms.
Could you remind me how long the Key government lasted? And please don’t weep. The site needs work – not being drowned in tears.
That fact is that the electorate carries a lot of inertia about changing governments. From memory there were only two one term governments since the 1940s – the last in 1972-75. Overturning them required the concerted lying by National politicians and their braying friends in a concentrated media. I don’t think that kind of thing can happen now. There is simply too much independent scrutiny to play the authoritative voice ploy.
There are similarities for sure except the blood letting is happening sooner rather than later (and should have started much earlier in my opinion) and the opposition is still over 40%
But yes it is disappointing that National doesn’t seem to have learnt anything from Labours time in the wilderness…maybe National need a strong leader, a take no prisoners type of leader to sort out the naughty boys causing problems
lol
When BM stops being so darned sour I’ll think maybe the nats are on the rise again.
” … the next leaders debate will be between Jacinda, Nationals leader…and Winston”
Or just between Jacinda and Winston 😉
(Hell, why not cut the crap and just let Winston debate a mirror. He gets to choose the winner anyway)
(Hell, why not cut the crap and just let Winston debate a mirror. He gets to choose the winner anyway)
Would he agree with himself or end up arguing with himself?
I suspect he’d fall in love.
You have a very fertile imagination TRP.
I imagine so 😉
The long, deeply sad tale of Emil and Xaver, full of twists and turns and the translation isn’t quite there, but worth the read.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1071151411436666880.html
thanks for that. What a lovely find.
Emil and Xaver are are indeed interred in Sighisoara but I’m pretty sure the author’s applied a fair dollop of his own dramatic license to the yarn.
every good story contains a lot of yarn. Can’t knit without it. 🙂
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/109252701/justice-minister-andrew-little-urges-british-media-to-ensure-justice-for-grace-millane
Yeah this is the problem, its not hard to find out the accused name yet I’m not sure what can be done unless every country signed up to the same name suppression laws but even then…
Makes you wonder why the defence pressed for name suppression doesn’t it puckers. No. not really.
Timely.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/109254302/paremoremo-prison-an-inmates-view-from-the-inside
good read.
US doing exactly what it accuses China of doing : https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/109255452/us-warning-to-new-zealand-on-china
Creepy AF.
Since Millane’s death, her personal Facebook page has been turned into a remembrance page now dubbed “Remembering Grace Emmie Rose Millane”.
One of the posts on her page on November 29 was made by the man now accused of taking her life.
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/national/murder-accused-messaged-beautiful-grace-on-her-fb-page/
Scrutinizing Jane Clifton’s claims as an exemplar of the current Media Orthodoxy
.
Jane Clifton (Politics column in latest Listener ‘For Whom the Polls Tell’ December 15 2018)
.
First :
.
Right, so what is that “enduring poll trend” that Clifton deems absolutely phenomenal ?
.
2018 Colmar Bruntons
Nat ratings
Feb 43% … , April 44% … , May 45% … , Aug 45% … , Oct 43% … , Nov 46%
.
Is it true that: “No first-term Opposition Party in living memory has polled anywhere near” these figures ?
As it happens … No, it Bloody Isn’t !
Back in September, I did a comparison of Major Opposition Party support 10 Months after their Election defeat (ie comparing the Bridges-led Nats Aug 2018 45% rating with its 6 predecessors at the same stage into their First Term). Here are the results:
_________________________________________
Table 1
_________________________________________
(In order Highest to Lowest Ratings)
1991 … Moore-led Labour 47.0%
2018 … Bridges-led National 45.0%
2000 … Shipley-led National 44.0%
1973 … Marshall-led National 44.0%
1985 … McLay-led National 43.0%
1976 … Rowling-led Labour 40.0%
2009 … Goff-led Labour 33.0%
____________________________________________
As Table 1 shows, National’s 45% support level was certainly above average but you’d have to say a long way from remarkable, phenomenal or Herculean.
Not only was Mike Moore’s 1991 Labour Party more popular at the 10 month mark but three other newly-defeated Opposition Parties (the Shipley / Marshall / McLay-led National Parties of 2000 / 1973 / 1985) each cluster immediately below their 2018 descendants, just a point or two adrift.
In all, fully 4 of the Bridges-led National Party’s predecessors were polling at or above the 43% rating that defined the Nats 2018 minimum (Feb / Oct), with one receiving more than its 46% maximum (Nov).
And this is in the context of a 2018 National Party that has managed to gobble up almost the entire Right Bloc vote. This dominance and consolidation on the Right, this muscling in on Minor Right-wing Party territory, not only results in an artificially boosted poll rating that inherently flatters National (because it’s not coming at the expense of the Coalition) but also encourages an exaggerated perception of broader Opposition Bloc popularity.
It’s quite clear, for instance, that – despite National’s reasonably good (as opposed to “phenomenal”) individual ratings at the 10 Month mark – overall opposition to the current Government was not in fact particularly strong at all.
Even when you conceive of Opposition Blocs in the most narrow possible terms (restricted solely to Opposition parties of close ideological proximity) (Table 2), the 2018 Nat+ACT Opposition still drops to third place, only slightly above the average.
_____________________________________
Table 2: Opposition Bloc Overall Support
(Close Ideological Proximity)
10 Month Mark
_____________________________________
1991 … 65.0%
2000 … 48.0%
2018 … 46.1%
1973 … 44.0%
1985 … 43.0%
1976 … 40.0%
2009 … 37.7%
_____________________________________
And when you broaden it out to Oppo Blocs in their widest possible sense (Table 3) the Bridges-led Nat+ACT Opposition falls to a decidedly average fourth out of seven.
_________________________________________
Table 3: Opposition Bloc Overall Support
(Broader Opposition)
10 Month Mark
________________________________________
1991 … 65.0
2000 … 51.0
1985 … 47.0
2018 … 46.1
1973 … 44.0
1976 … 40.0
2009 … 39.4
____________________________________________
.
Second
Clifton goes on to assert:
To see just how outrageous this claim is … go back to the comparative figures at the 10 month mark (Table 1).
“Mighty Impressive” compared to the 2009 Goff-led Labour Party (33%) ? … perhaps … compared to every other newly-defeated Opposition Party predecessor ? (40%, 43%, 44%, 44%, 47%) … I mean, give me a break, Not even Remotely !
And compared to Oppo Blocs as a whole ? … pitiful.
And remember, the Moore-led Labour Party of 1991 scored 47% despite its fellow Oppo Party (the newly-minted Alliance) skyrocketing up the polls as well … 18% at the 10 month mark, 32% at the 13 month mark.
Third
As always with the current Media Orthodoxy, Clifton erroneously tries to read the broader political zeitgeist from a myopic focus on National’s specific rating … a tactic that obscures far more than it reveals.
She – like almost every other senior political journalist – ignores the absolutely crucial flip side of the coin … comparative Government support.
My research at the 10 month mark suggests that while the Nats were mildly (3 points) above the average of their 6 predecessors … the Ardern Coalition was, at one and the same time, significantly (8 points) above its predecessors’ average.
(Reason why both above average … Unusually high support for Parliamentary parties / low support for extra-Parliamentary parties in the August 2018 Colmar Brunton compared to 10 month polls of previous First Terms).
The Ardern Administration was the second most popular and enjoyed the second widest lead over the Opposition at the 10 month mark (compared to its 6 predecessors)
See Table 4
_____________________________________________________________
Table 4 Govt vs Oppo Lead
10 month mark
_____________________________________________________________
Lead (1) Govt vs Oppo Bloc
Lead (2) Govt vs Major Oppo Party
_____________________________________________________________
2009 Lead (1) Govt + 20.6 … Lead (2) Govt + 27.0
2018 Lead (1) Govt + 6.9 … Lead (2) Govt + 8.0
1976 Lead (1) Govt + 6.0 … Lead (2) Govt + 6.0
1973 Lead (1) Govt + 3.0 … Lead (2) Govt + 3.0
1985 Lead (1) Oppo + 6.0 … Lead (2) Oppo + 2.0
2000 Lead (1) Oppo + 8.0 … Lead (2) Oppo + 1.0
1991 Lead (1) Oppo + 38.0 … Lead (2) Oppo + 20.0
_____________________________________________________________
Fourth
Jane Clifton goes on to suggest:
She discusses this in the context of voters supposedly being less than happy with the change of Government / the Party with the highest vote turfed out into Opposition.
But take a look at these figures and ask yourself whether or not there had been a Mood for Change in 2017:
_______________________________________________________________
Table 5: Right Bloc support at General Elections
2005-2017
_______________________________________________________________
2005 45.4%
2008 51.9% (+ 6.5)
2011 53.1% (+ 1,2)
2014 53.3% (+ 0.2)
2017 46.4% (- 6.9)
_________________________________________________________________
A 6.5 percentage point surge propelled the Key Govt into power and a 6.9 point plunge threw it out again.
(Figures include the Maori Party … but excluding them makes very little difference … the resultant stats would be … 2008 (+ 6.2), 2011 (+ 2.2), 2014 (+ 0.3), 2017 (- 6.8) )
And finally … just to emphasise that this truly is a broad Media Orthodoxy … here is a sampling of the excitable hyperbole generated by National’s 43-46% poll ratings this year:
“remarkable” (Jane Clifton), “astonishing” (Chris Trotter), “astounding” (HDPA), “staggering” (Tracy Watkins), “phenomenal” (Clifton), “Herculean” (Clifton), “near miraculous” (Matthew Hooton), “outstanding shape” (Hooton), “such high polling” (Hooton), “remarkably consistent” (Kathryn Ryan), “strong ratings” (Stephen Mills), “remarkable” (David Farrar), “astonishing” (Farrar), “frankly incredible” (Farrar), “excellent” (Farrar), “a great result for National” (Farrar), “a minor miracle” (Toby Manhire), “National’s continual strength” (Tim Watkin), “quite an achievement” (Watkin), “a worryingly large number of voters” (Trotter), “a big group of voters” (HDPA), “an alarmingly large number of New Zealanders” (Trotter), “a formidable unitary force” (Trotter), “steadfast opposition” (Trotter), “the most popular party” (Mike Hosking), “the biggest Opposition in history” (Hosking), “they’re doing fine” (Hosking), “They’re riding high and well” (Hosking), “largest party by a mile” (Hosking), “number one by some margin” (Hosking), “45% is a very, very good number by anyone’s standards” (Hosking), “The numbers tell you all you need to know about who’s got the upper hand right now” (Hosking), “historic levels” (Trish Sherson), “how could you not be happy with being at 46% after 9 years in power” (Kathryn Ryan), “there is much for National to be pleased about and a lot for Labour to be concerned about – namely the party vote” (Audrey Young), “brand National is stronger than they thought” (Young), “National’s high polling numbers” (Tracy Watkins), “National’s heroically high standing in the Polls” (Jane Clifton), “barnacle-like support” (Watkins), “probably unprecedented for a first-term Opposition” (Clifton), “still the more popular Party” (Watkins), “the only way is down” (Watkins), “National continues to ride high in the polls and that should be a huge wake-up call for Labour … Labour could lose” (Watkins).
Whew !!! And yet … as we’ve seen … National does not even remotely deserve all this hyperbolic overdrive
Great work Swordfish. Given the nature of MMP it could be that National have hit peak vote as they currently represent all the collective opposition. Red, black and green could be around for quite a while which presents a major conundrum for the blue team unless a new party or independent support emerges. How long before the Fourth Estate get their heads around the new reality.
I note the most egregiously positive voices in that cavalcade of compliance belong to Chris Trotter, Stephen Mills, Toby Manhire, and Tim Watkin. Always eager to curry favour with the right, these “liberals” are afraid to utter a word of dissent.
Here is Stephen Mills back in January 2016, scoffing at unions, and pouring cold water on both Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn…
https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-18012016/#comment-1119733