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Daily Review 11/12/2018

Written By: - Date published: 5:30 pm, December 11th, 2018 - 53 comments
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Daily review is also your post.

This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Don’t forget to be kind to each other …

53 comments on “Daily Review 11/12/2018 ”

  1. Sacha 1

    Who are the Nats aiming at with this? https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/10-12-2018/simon-bridges-must-stop-pandering-to-the-alt-right-on-the-global-compact/

    it seems odd that National Party leader Simon Bridges took time out of his busy week to criticise a little-known United Nations agreement, the Global Compact for Migration.

    It seems that Bridges’ announcement has been driven by the right flank of his party.

    • mickysavage 1.1

      It is flaky. The theory is Bridges is trying to wedge Peters but it is really clumsy and makes them look like Breitbart reading loons.

      • Sacha 1.1.1

        Wonder if it is driven more by appealing to some of the party’s factions?

        • McFlock 1.1.1.1

          or funders.
          Selling list places to anyone might have made some more rabid tories a bit angry. They might not change their vote, but with-holding cash would make the nats shit bricks.

          • OnceWasTim 1.1.1.1.1

            hold me back! hold me back!
            +1 @ McFlock
            You say ‘rabid’, I say feral.
            And that’s only because the feral right wing are still doing calculations and wondering how they can dress their thinking up nicely (even amongst their own ranks). If you pushed me hard enough, I’d say there’d be a Satchel (full of ill-gotten gains and notes for a future mercenary’s novel) and others busy on their calculators that go something along the lines:
            1 chink = 2 nargies, and 1 chink = 1,000 slopes, and ……..
            all the while feigning outrage at those “Chinese sounding names”.

            • Sacha 1.1.1.1.1.1

              the ‘names’ thing was an unprovoked self-inflicted wound from Labour. Best leave it.

      • Sacha 1.1.2

        Ah, Richard Harman reads it as wedging Winston First: http://politik.co.nz/en/content/politics/1486/ (apparently paywalled though my simple browser script-blocker seems to defeat that).

        It is unusual for political parties to play such partisan politics with major international agreements like this.

        Labour opposed the Trans Pacific Partnership, but that was a much more substantial opposition built on widespread community scepticism about the agreement.

        The danger for National now is that if it cannot drive NZ First right out of politics it would seem to stand no chance of forming any sort of Government with it after the next election and that would most likely mean that National could not form a Government at all.

        Wonder where Nat voters would go once they realise that?

        • Tamati Tautuhi 1.1.2.1

          NZF will be at 10-12% come next Election no doubts about it

          • Puckish Rogue 1.1.2.1.1

            How do you figure that?

            Half the voters at the last election probably wanted Winston to keep National honest so a fair few of them won’t be happy with Winston and Nationals support is holding steady so where will the voters come from because it won’t be Labour with Jacinda as leader and I doubt many Green voters will go with Winston

            • swordfish 1.1.2.1.1.1

              Puckers

              Half the voters at the last election probably wanted Winston to keep National honest so a fair few of them won’t be happy with Winston

              Colmar Brunton (29 September 2017)

              Speculation has been rife this week following the New Zealand general election on who Winston Peters and New Zealand First will partner with to form the next New Zealand government.

              To help shed some light on what New Zealanders think we went back to the 1 News Colmar Brunton Poll carried out in the lead up to the election, where we asked “given the choice, would you prefer to see New Zealand First support a Labour or National-led government?”

              According to those surveyed, 46% said they would prefer to see New Zealand First support a Labour-led government.

              A third of those surveyed (33%) said they would prefer New Zealand First supported a National-led government. Seven percent spontaneously said they do not want to see New Zealand First in government, or do not wish to see it support either party. Finally, 14% don’t know which party New Zealand First should support.

              Those people who support New Zealand First (for their party vote) were more likely to say they would prefer the party to support a Labour-led government (65%) than a National one (25%).

              https://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-who-should-nz-first-support-labour-or-national/

          • Charlie 1.1.2.1.2

            You mean National 10-12%.

      • ScottGN 1.1.3

        In Australia Scott Morrison and Andrew Scheer the Conservative Party leader in Canada both had a go at this too. All singing from the same songbook. If it’s the UN it must be bad.

  2. Kat 2

    Its very clear, National keep asking questions in the house that reflect more on their own failings when in govt. Today was no exception, tomorrow will be the same. Simon Bridges unwittingly keeps cross examining himself and his party’s past poor performance.

    Meanwhile the Hosk plans to spend the holidays boning up on his questions in the faint hope he may trip up the PM next year. Not likely if this years spinouts are anything to go by.

  3. greywarshark 3

    The chooser of the image for tonights DR might think about saying taihoa on calling SB out. It is going very well thank you as things are so why not let sleeping dogs lie instead of falling to the temptation to kick whenever passing?

    • Charlie 3.1

      Nah, Bridges is a dickhead and should be kicked till he leaves. I say give each opposition MP a go at being leader and show them Nats up for the rotten, useless waste of space that they are.

    • Puckish Rogue 3.2

      No no keep going, the more Soimon is kicked the sooner he’s replaced by someone else…

      National are at least over 40% with an unpopular leader so imagine what might happen if they get a leader that people like or at least respect or has recognition or…something

      • Charlie 3.2.1

        Bridges is the best of all the dickheads in the opposition, thats the big problem for the Nats.

        • Puckish Rogue 3.2.1.1

          We’ll take that under advisement

        • Fireblade 3.2.1.2

          And it won’t be Judith Collins.

          Judith’s lacklustre performance over the last few months must be concerning for her sycophants.

          She used to have some charisma and energy, but now she just looks bored and uninspiring. She’s been in Parliament for 16 years and she still can’t get enough support from her colleagues. Paula’s a better leadership prospect now than tired worn out Judith.

          Judith represents the past, not the future.

          • mary_a 3.2.1.2.1

            @Fireblade (3.2.1.2) … Agree with you re Judith Collins.

            However I can’t see Paula as leader. She’s too lazy. Hasn’t achieved much, if anything at all as deputy leader of Natz that I can see, other than pulling odd faces and rolling her eyes in Parliament, if that can be considered as anything achievable!

      • mickysavage 3.2.2

        You mean they are not at 46%?

        • Charlie 3.2.2.1

          I read someone say they were on 38%.

        • Puckish Rogue 3.2.2.2

          It wasn’t that long ago Labour had its own issues with internal polling, if you remember however if Nationals polling at 41% with an unpopular leader imagine what National could poll if he’s replaced by someone that can inspire (even Labour managed it, eventually) Nationals supporters

          • Charlie 3.2.2.2.1

            Anything could happen after a decade, a not so dickish head may even be found. Keep searching Nats.

          • te reo putake 3.2.2.2.2

            I imagine they could get as high as 45% with a competent leader, PR. And assuming Winston sticks with Labour, National need 48.5% plus their Epsom charity case to even come close. However, I’ve already made the case that the next potential National PM isn’t currently in Parliament anyway. I mean, have you looked at the current Tory caucus? Not exactly a Ministry of All the Talents.

            • Puckish Rogue 3.2.2.2.2.1

              Well if a weeks a long time in politics a couple of years is an eternity

              However its not guaranteed Winston, the Greens or both will be back in power given how most minor parties lose support (I suspect the Greens will get back in) and that would make things interesting

              However heres a prediction for you, the next leaders debate will be between Jacinda, Nationals leader…and Winston

              • McFlock

                To win, National most likely need to make friends or hope Labour lose their friends.
                To win, Labour just need to keep their friends.

                • Puckish Rogue

                  It is true Nationals road back to power is hard no doubt about that but Labours certainly isn’t all smooth either

                  National does have the bonus that that they ousted for being “bad” as such, the economy was running well, unemployment was low and all that so the lingering feelings of resentment arn’t there or at least as bad as other former governments

                  • lprent

                    Just reminds me of 2008.

                    Reasonably popular new coalition government with a few minor problems and new policies that infuriate the faithful on the other side. The opposition with major issues in their ranks and leaking like a sieve with barely concealed blood-letting and slowly descending in the polls. Less in the first term than they did in later terms.

                    Could you remind me how long the Key government lasted? And please don’t weep. The site needs work – not being drowned in tears.

                    That fact is that the electorate carries a lot of inertia about changing governments. From memory there were only two one term governments since the 1940s – the last in 1972-75. Overturning them required the concerted lying by National politicians and their braying friends in a concentrated media. I don’t think that kind of thing can happen now. There is simply too much independent scrutiny to play the authoritative voice ploy.

                    • Puckish Rogue

                      There are similarities for sure except the blood letting is happening sooner rather than later (and should have started much earlier in my opinion) and the opposition is still over 40%

                      But yes it is disappointing that National doesn’t seem to have learnt anything from Labours time in the wilderness…maybe National need a strong leader, a take no prisoners type of leader to sort out the naughty boys causing problems

                  • McFlock

                    lol

                    When BM stops being so darned sour I’ll think maybe the nats are on the rise again.

              • ” … the next leaders debate will be between Jacinda, Nationals leader…and Winston”

                Or just between Jacinda and Winston 😉

                (Hell, why not cut the crap and just let Winston debate a mirror. He gets to choose the winner anyway)

            • Charlie 3.2.2.2.2.2

              You have a very fertile imagination TRP.

  4. joe90 4

    The long, deeply sad tale of Emil and Xaver, full of twists and turns and the translation isn’t quite there, but worth the read.

    a gay love story of the 1st world war’s year. [thread by @guillemclua im just a translator]. pic.twitter.com/I3CkgKd1EO— [may]onesa. (@brendonsexual) December 7, 2018

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1071151411436666880.html

  5. Puckish Rogue 5

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/109252701/justice-minister-andrew-little-urges-british-media-to-ensure-justice-for-grace-millane

    Yeah this is the problem, its not hard to find out the accused name yet I’m not sure what can be done unless every country signed up to the same name suppression laws but even then…

    • Gabby 5.1

      Makes you wonder why the defence pressed for name suppression doesn’t it puckers. No. not really.

  6. joe90 8

    Creepy AF.

    Since Millane’s death, her personal Facebook page has been turned into a remembrance page now dubbed “Remembering Grace Emmie Rose Millane”.

    One of the posts on her page on November 29 was made by the man now accused of taking her life.

    https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/national/murder-accused-messaged-beautiful-grace-on-her-fb-page/

  7. swordfish 9

    Scrutinizing Jane Clifton’s claims as an exemplar of the current Media Orthodoxy

    .
    Jane Clifton (Politics column in latest Listener ‘For Whom the Polls Tell’ December 15 2018)

    .

    First :

    Colmar Brunton says despite the ascendant economy, the Government’s favourables are down and the Nats are in an ebullient phase …

    It showed National soaring back to a record lead in Opposition as though the Jamie-Lee Ross debacle had never happened …

    The enduring poll trend for National is phenomenal …

    No first-term Opposition Party in living memory has polled anywhere near it, let alone so consistently …

    remarkable popularity …

    The party retains Herculean brand-power

    .

    Right, so what is that “enduring poll trend” that Clifton deems absolutely phenomenal ?
    .

    2018 Colmar Bruntons

    Nat ratings

    Feb 43% … , April 44% … , May 45% … , Aug 45% … , Oct 43% … , Nov 46%

    .
    Is it true that: “No first-term Opposition Party in living memory has polled anywhere near” these figures ?

    As it happens … No, it Bloody Isn’t !

    Back in September, I did a comparison of Major Opposition Party support 10 Months after their Election defeat (ie comparing the Bridges-led Nats Aug 2018 45% rating with its 6 predecessors at the same stage into their First Term). Here are the results:
    _________________________________________
    Table 1
    _________________________________________

    (In order Highest to Lowest Ratings)

    1991 … Moore-led Labour 47.0%

    2018 … Bridges-led National 45.0%

    2000 … Shipley-led National 44.0%

    1973 … Marshall-led National 44.0%

    1985 … McLay-led National 43.0%

    1976 … Rowling-led Labour 40.0%

    2009 … Goff-led Labour 33.0%

    ____________________________________________

    As Table 1 shows, National’s 45% support level was certainly above average but you’d have to say a long way from remarkable, phenomenal or Herculean.

    Not only was Mike Moore’s 1991 Labour Party more popular at the 10 month mark but three other newly-defeated Opposition Parties (the Shipley / Marshall / McLay-led National Parties of 2000 / 1973 / 1985) each cluster immediately below their 2018 descendants, just a point or two adrift.

    In all, fully 4 of the Bridges-led National Party’s predecessors were polling at or above the 43% rating that defined the Nats 2018 minimum (Feb / Oct), with one receiving more than its 46% maximum (Nov).

    And this is in the context of a 2018 National Party that has managed to gobble up almost the entire Right Bloc vote. This dominance and consolidation on the Right, this muscling in on Minor Right-wing Party territory, not only results in an artificially boosted poll rating that inherently flatters National (because it’s not coming at the expense of the Coalition) but also encourages an exaggerated perception of broader Opposition Bloc popularity.

    It’s quite clear, for instance, that – despite National’s reasonably good (as opposed to “phenomenal”) individual ratings at the 10 Month mark – overall opposition to the current Government was not in fact particularly strong at all.

    Even when you conceive of Opposition Blocs in the most narrow possible terms (restricted solely to Opposition parties of close ideological proximity) (Table 2), the 2018 Nat+ACT Opposition still drops to third place, only slightly above the average.

    _____________________________________

    Table 2: Opposition Bloc Overall Support
    (Close Ideological Proximity)
    10 Month Mark

    _____________________________________

    1991 … 65.0%

    2000 … 48.0%

    2018 … 46.1%

    1973 … 44.0%

    1985 … 43.0%

    1976 … 40.0%

    2009 … 37.7%

    _____________________________________

    And when you broaden it out to Oppo Blocs in their widest possible sense (Table 3) the Bridges-led Nat+ACT Opposition falls to a decidedly average fourth out of seven.

    _________________________________________

    Table 3: Opposition Bloc Overall Support
    (Broader Opposition)
    10 Month Mark
    ________________________________________

    1991 … 65.0

    2000 … 51.0

    1985 … 47.0

    2018 … 46.1

    1973 … 44.0

    1976 … 40.0

    2009 … 39.4

    ____________________________________________

    .

    Second

    Clifton goes on to assert:

    Even the apparent plunge to 37% in research by Labour pollster UMR a few weeks back was a mighty impressive result for a first-term Opposition, and would hardly dishearten a second or third term one either.

    To see just how outrageous this claim is … go back to the comparative figures at the 10 month mark (Table 1).

    “Mighty Impressive” compared to the 2009 Goff-led Labour Party (33%) ? … perhaps … compared to every other newly-defeated Opposition Party predecessor ? (40%, 43%, 44%, 44%, 47%) … I mean, give me a break, Not even Remotely !

    And compared to Oppo Blocs as a whole ? … pitiful.

    And remember, the Moore-led Labour Party of 1991 scored 47% despite its fellow Oppo Party (the newly-minted Alliance) skyrocketing up the polls as well … 18% at the 10 month mark, 32% at the 13 month mark.

  8. swordfish 10

    Third

    As always with the current Media Orthodoxy, Clifton erroneously tries to read the broader political zeitgeist from a myopic focus on National’s specific rating … a tactic that obscures far more than it reveals.

    She – like almost every other senior political journalist – ignores the absolutely crucial flip side of the coin … comparative Government support.

    My research at the 10 month mark suggests that while the Nats were mildly (3 points) above the average of their 6 predecessors … the Ardern Coalition was, at one and the same time, significantly (8 points) above its predecessors’ average.

    (Reason why both above average … Unusually high support for Parliamentary parties / low support for extra-Parliamentary parties in the August 2018 Colmar Brunton compared to 10 month polls of previous First Terms).

    The Ardern Administration was the second most popular and enjoyed the second widest lead over the Opposition at the 10 month mark (compared to its 6 predecessors)

    See Table 4

    _____________________________________________________________

    Table 4 Govt vs Oppo Lead
    10 month mark
    _____________________________________________________________

    Lead (1) Govt vs Oppo Bloc
    Lead (2) Govt vs Major Oppo Party
    _____________________________________________________________
    2009 Lead (1) Govt + 20.6 … Lead (2) Govt + 27.0

    2018 Lead (1) Govt + 6.9 … Lead (2) Govt + 8.0

    1976 Lead (1) Govt + 6.0 … Lead (2) Govt + 6.0

    1973 Lead (1) Govt + 3.0 … Lead (2) Govt + 3.0

    1985 Lead (1) Oppo + 6.0 … Lead (2) Oppo + 2.0

    2000 Lead (1) Oppo + 8.0 … Lead (2) Oppo + 1.0

    1991 Lead (1) Oppo + 38.0 … Lead (2) Oppo + 20.0
    _____________________________________________________________

    • swordfish 10.1

      Fourth

      Jane Clifton goes on to suggest:

      The election result did not actually represent a rejection of National’s existing policies

      She discusses this in the context of voters supposedly being less than happy with the change of Government / the Party with the highest vote turfed out into Opposition.

      But take a look at these figures and ask yourself whether or not there had been a Mood for Change in 2017:

      _______________________________________________________________

      Table 5: Right Bloc support at General Elections
      2005-2017
      _______________________________________________________________

      2005 45.4%

      2008 51.9% (+ 6.5)

      2011 53.1% (+ 1,2)

      2014 53.3% (+ 0.2)

      2017 46.4% (- 6.9)
      _________________________________________________________________

      A 6.5 percentage point surge propelled the Key Govt into power and a 6.9 point plunge threw it out again.

      (Figures include the Maori Party … but excluding them makes very little difference … the resultant stats would be … 2008 (+ 6.2), 2011 (+ 2.2), 2014 (+ 0.3), 2017 (- 6.8) )

      • swordfish 10.1.1

        And finally … just to emphasise that this truly is a broad Media Orthodoxy … here is a sampling of the excitable hyperbole generated by National’s 43-46% poll ratings this year:

        “remarkable” (Jane Clifton), “astonishing” (Chris Trotter), “astounding” (HDPA), “staggering” (Tracy Watkins), “phenomenal” (Clifton), “Herculean” (Clifton), “near miraculous” (Matthew Hooton), “outstanding shape” (Hooton), “such high polling” (Hooton), “remarkably consistent” (Kathryn Ryan), “strong ratings” (Stephen Mills), “remarkable” (David Farrar), “astonishing” (Farrar), “frankly incredible” (Farrar), “excellent” (Farrar), “a great result for National” (Farrar), “a minor miracle” (Toby Manhire), “National’s continual strength” (Tim Watkin), “quite an achievement” (Watkin), “a worryingly large number of voters” (Trotter), “a big group of voters” (HDPA), “an alarmingly large number of New Zealanders” (Trotter), “a formidable unitary force” (Trotter), “steadfast opposition” (Trotter), “the most popular party” (Mike Hosking), “the biggest Opposition in history” (Hosking), “they’re doing fine” (Hosking), “They’re riding high and well” (Hosking), “largest party by a mile” (Hosking), “number one by some margin” (Hosking), “45% is a very, very good number by anyone’s standards” (Hosking), “The numbers tell you all you need to know about who’s got the upper hand right now” (Hosking), “historic levels” (Trish Sherson), “how could you not be happy with being at 46% after 9 years in power” (Kathryn Ryan), “there is much for National to be pleased about and a lot for Labour to be concerned about – namely the party vote” (Audrey Young), “brand National is stronger than they thought” (Young), “National’s high polling numbers” (Tracy Watkins), “National’s heroically high standing in the Polls” (Jane Clifton), “barnacle-like support” (Watkins), “probably unprecedented for a first-term Opposition” (Clifton), “still the more popular Party” (Watkins), “the only way is down” (Watkins), “National continues to ride high in the polls and that should be a huge wake-up call for Labour … Labour could lose” (Watkins).

        Whew !!! And yet … as we’ve seen … National does not even remotely deserve all this hyperbolic overdrive

        • Kat 10.1.1.1

          Great work Swordfish. Given the nature of MMP it could be that National have hit peak vote as they currently represent all the collective opposition. Red, black and green could be around for quite a while which presents a major conundrum for the blue team unless a new party or independent support emerges. How long before the Fourth Estate get their heads around the new reality.

        • Morrissey 10.1.1.2

          I note the most egregiously positive voices in that cavalcade of compliance belong to Chris Trotter, Stephen Mills, Toby Manhire, and Tim Watkin. Always eager to curry favour with the right, these “liberals” are afraid to utter a word of dissent.

          Here is Stephen Mills back in January 2016, scoffing at unions, and pouring cold water on both Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn…

          Open mike 18/01/2016

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