it seems odd that National Party leader Simon Bridges took time out of his busy week to criticise a little-known United Nations agreement, the Global Compact for Migration.
…
It seems that Bridges’ announcement has been driven by the right flank of his party.
or funders.
Selling list places to anyone might have made some more rabid tories a bit angry. They might not change their vote, but with-holding cash would make the nats shit bricks.
hold me back! hold me back!
+1 @ McFlock
You say ‘rabid’, I say feral.
And that’s only because the feral right wing are still doing calculations and wondering how they can dress their thinking up nicely (even amongst their own ranks). If you pushed me hard enough, I’d say there’d be a Satchel (full of ill-gotten gains and notes for a future mercenary’s novel) and others busy on their calculators that go something along the lines:
1 chink = 2 nargies, and 1 chink = 1,000 slopes, and ……..
all the while feigning outrage at those “Chinese sounding names”.
Ah, Richard Harman reads it as wedging Winston First: http://politik.co.nz/en/content/politics/1486/ (apparently paywalled though my simple browser script-blocker seems to defeat that).
It is unusual for political parties to play such partisan politics with major international agreements like this.
Labour opposed the Trans Pacific Partnership, but that was a much more substantial opposition built on widespread community scepticism about the agreement.
The danger for National now is that if it cannot drive NZ First right out of politics it would seem to stand no chance of forming any sort of Government with it after the next election and that would most likely mean that National could not form a Government at all.
Wonder where Nat voters would go once they realise that?
Half the voters at the last election probably wanted Winston to keep National honest so a fair few of them won’t be happy with Winston and Nationals support is holding steady so where will the voters come from because it won’t be Labour with Jacinda as leader and I doubt many Green voters will go with Winston
Half the voters at the last election probably wanted Winston to keep National honest so a fair few of them won’t be happy with Winston
Colmar Brunton (29 September 2017)
Speculation has been rife this week following the New Zealand general election on who Winston Peters and New Zealand First will partner with to form the next New Zealand government.
To help shed some light on what New Zealanders think we went back to the 1 News Colmar Brunton Poll carried out in the lead up to the election, where we asked “given the choice, would you prefer to see New Zealand First support a Labour or National-led government?”
According to those surveyed, 46% said they would prefer to see New Zealand First support a Labour-led government.
A third of those surveyed (33%) said they would prefer New Zealand First supported a National-led government. Seven percent spontaneously said they do not want to see New Zealand First in government, or do not wish to see it support either party. Finally, 14% don’t know which party New Zealand First should support.
Those people who support New Zealand First (for their party vote) were more likely to say they would prefer the party to support a Labour-led government (65%) than a National one (25%).
In Australia Scott Morrison and Andrew Scheer the Conservative Party leader in Canada both had a go at this too. All singing from the same songbook. If it’s the UN it must be bad.
Its very clear, National keep asking questions in the house that reflect more on their own failings when in govt. Today was no exception, tomorrow will be the same. Simon Bridges unwittingly keeps cross examining himself and his party’s past poor performance.
Meanwhile the Hosk plans to spend the holidays boning up on his questions in the faint hope he may trip up the PM next year. Not likely if this years spinouts are anything to go by.
The chooser of the image for tonights DR might think about saying taihoa on calling SB out. It is going very well thank you as things are so why not let sleeping dogs lie instead of falling to the temptation to kick whenever passing?
Nah, Bridges is a dickhead and should be kicked till he leaves. I say give each opposition MP a go at being leader and show them Nats up for the rotten, useless waste of space that they are.
No no keep going, the more Soimon is kicked the sooner he’s replaced by someone else…
National are at least over 40% with an unpopular leader so imagine what might happen if they get a leader that people like or at least respect or has recognition or…something
Judith’s lacklustre performance over the last few months must be concerning for her sycophants.
She used to have some charisma and energy, but now she just looks bored and uninspiring. She’s been in Parliament for 16 years and she still can’t get enough support from her colleagues. Paula’s a better leadership prospect now than tired worn out Judith.
@Fireblade (3.2.1.2) … Agree with you re Judith Collins.
However I can’t see Paula as leader. She’s too lazy. Hasn’t achieved much, if anything at all as deputy leader of Natz that I can see, other than pulling odd faces and rolling her eyes in Parliament, if that can be considered as anything achievable!
It wasn’t that long ago Labour had its own issues with internal polling, if you remember however if Nationals polling at 41% with an unpopular leader imagine what National could poll if he’s replaced by someone that can inspire (even Labour managed it, eventually) Nationals supporters
I imagine they could get as high as 45% with a competent leader, PR. And assuming Winston sticks with Labour, National need 48.5% plus their Epsom charity case to even come close. However, I’ve already made the case that the next potential National PM isn’t currently in Parliament anyway. I mean, have you looked at the current Tory caucus? Not exactly a Ministry of All the Talents.
Well if a weeks a long time in politics a couple of years is an eternity
However its not guaranteed Winston, the Greens or both will be back in power given how most minor parties lose support (I suspect the Greens will get back in) and that would make things interesting
However heres a prediction for you, the next leaders debate will be between Jacinda, Nationals leader…and Winston
It is true Nationals road back to power is hard no doubt about that but Labours certainly isn’t all smooth either
National does have the bonus that that they ousted for being “bad” as such, the economy was running well, unemployment was low and all that so the lingering feelings of resentment arn’t there or at least as bad as other former governments
Reasonably popular new coalition government with a few minor problems and new policies that infuriate the faithful on the other side. The opposition with major issues in their ranks and leaking like a sieve with barely concealed blood-letting and slowly descending in the polls. Less in the first term than they did in later terms.
Could you remind me how long the Key government lasted? And please don’t weep. The site needs work – not being drowned in tears.
That fact is that the electorate carries a lot of inertia about changing governments. From memory there were only two one term governments since the 1940s – the last in 1972-75. Overturning them required the concerted lying by National politicians and their braying friends in a concentrated media. I don’t think that kind of thing can happen now. There is simply too much independent scrutiny to play the authoritative voice ploy.
There are similarities for sure except the blood letting is happening sooner rather than later (and should have started much earlier in my opinion) and the opposition is still over 40%
But yes it is disappointing that National doesn’t seem to have learnt anything from Labours time in the wilderness…maybe National need a strong leader, a take no prisoners type of leader to sort out the naughty boys causing problems
Yeah this is the problem, its not hard to find out the accused name yet I’m not sure what can be done unless every country signed up to the same name suppression laws but even then…
Scrutinizing Jane Clifton’s claims as an exemplar of the current Media Orthodoxy
. Jane Clifton (Politics column in latest Listener‘For Whom the Polls Tell’ December 15 2018)
.
First :
Colmar Brunton says despite the ascendant economy, the Government’s favourables are down and the Nats are in an ebullient phase …
It showed National soaring back to a record lead in Opposition as though the Jamie-Lee Ross debacle had never happened …
The enduring poll trend for National is phenomenal …
No first-term Opposition Party in living memory has polled anywhere near it, let alone so consistently …
remarkable popularity …
The party retains Herculean brand-power
.
Right, so what is that “enduring poll trend” that Clifton deems absolutely phenomenal ?
.
2018 Colmar Bruntons
Nat ratings
Feb 43% … , April 44% … , May 45% … , Aug 45% … , Oct 43% … , Nov 46%
.
Is it true that: “No first-term Opposition Party in living memory has polled anywhere near” these figures ?
As it happens … No, it Bloody Isn’t !
Back in September, I did a comparison of Major Opposition Party support 10 Months after their Election defeat (ie comparing the Bridges-led Nats Aug 2018 45% rating with its 6 predecessors at the same stage into their First Term). Here are the results:
_________________________________________ Table 1
_________________________________________
(In order Highest to Lowest Ratings)
1991 … Moore-led Labour 47.0%
2018 … Bridges-led National 45.0%
2000 … Shipley-led National 44.0%
1973 … Marshall-led National 44.0%
1985 … McLay-led National 43.0%
1976 … Rowling-led Labour 40.0%
2009 … Goff-led Labour 33.0%
____________________________________________
As Table 1 shows, National’s 45% support level was certainly above average but you’d have to say a long way from remarkable, phenomenal or Herculean.
Not only was Mike Moore’s 1991 Labour Party more popular at the 10 month mark but three other newly-defeated Opposition Parties (the Shipley / Marshall / McLay-led National Parties of 2000 / 1973 / 1985) each cluster immediately below their 2018 descendants, just a point or two adrift.
In all, fully 4 of the Bridges-led National Party’s predecessors were polling at or above the 43% rating that defined the Nats 2018 minimum (Feb / Oct), with one receiving more than its 46% maximum (Nov).
And this is in the context of a 2018 National Party that has managed to gobble up almost the entire Right Bloc vote. This dominance and consolidation on the Right, this muscling in on Minor Right-wing Party territory, not only results in an artificially boosted poll rating that inherently flatters National (because it’s not coming at the expense of the Coalition) but also encourages an exaggerated perception of broader Opposition Bloc popularity.
It’s quite clear, for instance, that – despite National’s reasonably good (as opposed to “phenomenal”) individual ratings at the 10 Month mark – overall opposition to the current Government was not in fact particularly strong at all.
Even when you conceive of Opposition Blocs in the most narrow possible terms (restricted solely to Opposition parties of close ideological proximity) (Table 2), the 2018 Nat+ACT Opposition still drops to third place, only slightly above the average.
_____________________________________
Table 2: Opposition Bloc Overall Support
(Close Ideological Proximity)
10 Month Mark
_____________________________________
1991 … 65.0%
2000 … 48.0%
2018 … 46.1%
1973 … 44.0%
1985 … 43.0%
1976 … 40.0%
2009 … 37.7%
_____________________________________
And when you broaden it out to Oppo Blocs in their widest possible sense (Table 3) the Bridges-led Nat+ACT Opposition falls to a decidedly average fourth out of seven.
_________________________________________
Table 3: Opposition Bloc Overall Support
(Broader Opposition)
10 Month Mark
________________________________________
1991 … 65.0
2000 … 51.0
1985 … 47.0
2018 … 46.1
1973 … 44.0
1976 … 40.0
2009 … 39.4
____________________________________________
.
Second
Clifton goes on to assert:
Even the apparent plunge to 37% in research by Labour pollster UMR a few weeks back was a mighty impressive result for a first-term Opposition, and would hardly dishearten a second or third term one either.
To see just how outrageous this claim is … go back to the comparative figures at the 10 month mark (Table 1).
“Mighty Impressive” compared to the 2009 Goff-led Labour Party (33%) ? … perhaps … compared to every other newly-defeated Opposition Party predecessor ? (40%, 43%, 44%, 44%, 47%) … I mean, give me a break, Not even Remotely !
And compared to Oppo Blocs as a whole ? … pitiful.
And remember, the Moore-led Labour Party of 1991 scored 47% despite its fellow Oppo Party (the newly-minted Alliance) skyrocketing up the polls as well … 18% at the 10 month mark, 32% at the 13 month mark.
As always with the current Media Orthodoxy, Clifton erroneously tries to read the broader political zeitgeist from a myopic focus on National’s specific rating … a tactic that obscures far more than it reveals.
She – like almost every other senior political journalist – ignores the absolutely crucial flip side of the coin … comparative Government support.
My research at the 10 month mark suggests that while the Nats were mildly (3 points) above the average of their 6 predecessors … the Ardern Coalition was, at one and the same time, significantly (8 points) above its predecessors’ average.
(Reason why both above average … Unusually high support for Parliamentary parties / low support for extra-Parliamentary parties in the August 2018 Colmar Brunton compared to 10 month polls of previous First Terms).
The Ardern Administration was the second most popular and enjoyed the second widest lead over the Opposition at the 10 month mark (compared to its 6 predecessors)
Table 4 Govt vs Oppo Lead
10 month mark
_____________________________________________________________
Lead (1) Govt vs Oppo Bloc Lead (2) Govt vs Major Oppo Party
_____________________________________________________________ 2009 Lead (1) Govt + 20.6 … Lead (2) Govt + 27.0
2018 Lead (1) Govt + 6.9 … Lead (2) Govt + 8.0
1976 Lead (1) Govt + 6.0 … Lead (2) Govt + 6.0
1973 Lead (1) Govt + 3.0 … Lead (2) Govt + 3.0
1985 Lead (1) Oppo + 6.0 … Lead (2) Oppo + 2.0
2000 Lead (1) Oppo + 8.0 … Lead (2) Oppo + 1.0
1991 Lead (1) Oppo + 38.0 … Lead (2) Oppo + 20.0
_____________________________________________________________
The election result did not actually represent a rejection of National’s existing policies
She discusses this in the context of voters supposedly being less than happy with the change of Government / the Party with the highest vote turfed out into Opposition.
But take a look at these figures and ask yourself whether or not there had been a Mood for Change in 2017:
A 6.5 percentage point surge propelled the Key Govt into power and a 6.9 point plunge threw it out again.
(Figures include the Maori Party … but excluding them makes very little difference … the resultant stats would be … 2008 (+ 6.2), 2011 (+ 2.2), 2014 (+ 0.3), 2017 (- 6.8) )
And finally … just to emphasise that this truly is a broad Media Orthodoxy … here is a sampling of the excitable hyperbole generated by National’s 43-46% poll ratings this year:
“remarkable” (Jane Clifton), “astonishing” (Chris Trotter), “astounding” (HDPA), “staggering” (Tracy Watkins), “phenomenal” (Clifton), “Herculean” (Clifton), “near miraculous” (Matthew Hooton), “outstanding shape” (Hooton), “such high polling” (Hooton), “remarkably consistent” (Kathryn Ryan), “strong ratings” (Stephen Mills), “remarkable” (David Farrar), “astonishing” (Farrar), “frankly incredible” (Farrar), “excellent” (Farrar), “a great result for National” (Farrar), “a minor miracle” (Toby Manhire), “National’s continual strength” (Tim Watkin), “quite an achievement” (Watkin), “a worryingly large number of voters” (Trotter), “a big group of voters” (HDPA), “an alarmingly large number of New Zealanders” (Trotter), “a formidable unitary force” (Trotter), “steadfast opposition” (Trotter), “the most popular party” (Mike Hosking), “the biggest Opposition in history” (Hosking), “they’re doing fine” (Hosking), “They’re riding high and well” (Hosking), “largest party by a mile” (Hosking), “number one by some margin” (Hosking), “45% is a very, very good number by anyone’s standards” (Hosking), “The numbers tell you all you need to know about who’s got the upper hand right now” (Hosking), “historic levels” (Trish Sherson), “how could you not be happy with being at 46% after 9 years in power” (Kathryn Ryan), “there is much for National to be pleased about and a lot for Labour to be concerned about – namely the party vote” (Audrey Young), “brand National is stronger than they thought” (Young), “National’s high polling numbers” (Tracy Watkins), “National’s heroically high standing in the Polls” (Jane Clifton), “barnacle-like support” (Watkins), “probably unprecedented for a first-term Opposition” (Clifton), “still the more popular Party” (Watkins), “the only way is down” (Watkins), “National continues to ride high in the polls and that should be a huge wake-up call for Labour … Labour could lose” (Watkins).
Whew !!! And yet … as we’ve seen … National does not even remotely deserve all this hyperbolic overdrive
Great work Swordfish. Given the nature of MMP it could be that National have hit peak vote as they currently represent all the collective opposition. Red, black and green could be around for quite a while which presents a major conundrum for the blue team unless a new party or independent support emerges. How long before the Fourth Estate get their heads around the new reality.
I note the most egregiously positive voices in that cavalcade of compliance belong to Chris Trotter, Stephen Mills, Toby Manhire, and Tim Watkin. Always eager to curry favour with the right, these “liberals” are afraid to utter a word of dissent.
Here is Stephen Mills back in January 2016, scoffing at unions, and pouring cold water on both Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn…
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Ground truths on warming When we think about rapid climate change of the kind we've accidentally unleashed and the warming of Earth systems inherent in the process, we tend to focus on phenomena in order of their immediate tangibility, their drama. Sea ice loss in the Arctic, atmospheric and ocean ...
by Daphna Whitmore The Department of Corrections has called in the police over a pamphlet that supports protests at Waikeria Prison, saying the material might incite another riot. The group People Against Prisons Aotearoa denies it advocates for riots and has said it “encourages persistent, peaceful protest action such as striking from ...
One theme in the literature dedicated to democratic theory is the notion of a “tyranny of the minority.” This is where the desire to protect the interests of and give voice to electoral minorities leads to a tail wagging the dog syndrome whereby minorities wind up having disproportionate influence in ...
I've just lodged my fourth complaint to the Ombudsman for deemed refusal of an OIA request by police this year. That brings their total to four for four - every request I have sent them has not been answered within the legal timeframe, even when they extend it to give ...
Will the health reforms proposed for the Labour Government make the system better or worse? Health commentator Ian Powell (formerly the Executive Director of the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists) gives his analysis of what change is most necessary, and what should be avoided. The review of the Health ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections An off-course polar vortex meandered toward the Mexican border, bringing with it frigid Arctic air rarely seen as far south as Texas. Frozen equipment rendered power generation systems in the state inoperable, forcing grid operators to begin rolling blackouts to customers then left to fend ...
Just as National once produced a “rock star economy” that Grant Robertson rejected as being only for the rich, the Labour Government has produced an economic “bounce back” that leaves out the poor. Branko Marcetic argues for a rise in benefit levels to give the poor a real bounce back. ...
Virginia has voted to abolish the death penalty: State lawmakers gave final approval on Monday to a bill that will end capital punishment in Virginia, a dramatic turnaround for a state that has executed more people than any other. The legislation repealing the death penalty now heads to the ...
Yesterday a New Zealand Judge issued a formal finding that the Department of Corrections had treated prisoners in a cruel, degrading and inhumane manner, illegally detaining them, using excessive force, denying them basic necessities unless they performed degrading rituals of submission first. Some of the conduct appears to be criminal: ...
The Herald reports that there is a "storm brewing for the Climate Change Commission". The "problem"? Polluters are unhappy with its economic projections saying that action will not be as costly as they have previously claimed: Last week a coalition of over a dozen New Zealand business and industry ...
The Green Party are calling on the Government to assess how the COVID-19 leave support scheme can be better improved, distributed and enforced so that workers can properly take leave when self-isolating. ...
We know that when our rural communities do well, all of New Zealand benefits. Labour is committed to supporting our regions so that, together, we can achieve even more. Here are just some of the ways we’re backing rural communities. ...
Government data today shows that the wealthiest New Zealanders aren’t paying their fair share of tax, whilst everyone else chips in, Green Party spokesperson on Finance Julie Anne Genter said today. ...
The Green Party welcomes the change in the Reserve Bank’s remit to consider the impacts on housing when making financial decisions, but housing affordability shouldn’t be left to the Reserve Bank, Green Party Co-leader and Housing spokesperson Marama Davidson said today. ...
The Green Party welcomes the passing of the Local Electorate Act Māori Wards Amendment Bill which ensures Māori have a say on local issues across Aotearoa New Zealand. ...
New UMR research reveals that 69 percent of New Zealanders agree that the government should increase the amount if income support paid to those on low incomes or not in paid work. ...
The Green Party are celebrating the Labour Government bringing forward the timeline to ban conversion therapy, and will push to ensure any draft bill properly protects all of our Rainbow communities. ...
The Green Party is joining the call for ‘brave policy action’ to address rapidly increasing inequality in New Zealand, which is likely to be exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
Green MPs currently in Auckland, Marama Davidson, Chlöe Swarbrick and Golriz Ghahraman, will remain in Auckland for the next 72 hours. Those in Auckland today for Big Gay Out who have flown home will self-isolate for 72 hours. These decisions will be subject to any new information that may arise ...
Health Minister Andrew Little welcomes the Initial Mental Health and Wellbeing Commission’s assessment that transformation of New Zealand’s approach to mental health and addiction is underway. “This is an important step in the Government’s work to provide better and equitable mental health and wellbeing outcomes for all people in New ...
The Government’s Consumer Travel Reimbursement Scheme has helped return over $352 million of refunds and credits to New Zealanders who had overseas travel cancelled due to COVID-19, Consumer Affairs Minister David Clark says. “Working with the travel sector, we are helping New Zealanders retrieve the money owed to them by ...
An additional 88,000 students in 322 schools and kura across the country have started the school year with a regular lunch on the menu, thanks to the Government’s Ka Ora, Ka Ako Healthy School Lunches programme. They join 42,000 students already receiving weekday lunches under the scheme, which launched last ...
New Zealand’s economic recovery has again been reflected in the Government’s books, which are in better shape than expected. The Crown accounts for the seven months to the end of January 2021 were better than forecast in the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU). The operating balance before gains ...
More than half of New Zealand’s estimated 12,000 border workforce have now received their first vaccinations, as a third batch of vaccines arrive in the country, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins says. As of midnight Tuesday, a total of 9,431 people had received their first doses. More than 70 percent ...
The Government is significantly increasing its investment in restoring Central Otago’s waterways while at the same time delivering jobs to the region hard-hit by the economic impact of Covid-19, says Land Information Minister, Damien O’Connor. Mr O’Connor says two new community projects under the Jobs for Nature funding programme will ...
The Government has confirmed details of COVID-19 support for business and workers following the increased alert levels due to a resurgence of the virus over the weekend. Following two new community cases of COVID-19, Auckland moved to Alert Level 3 and the rest of New Zealand moved to Alert Level ...
The Government remains committed to hosting the Women’s Rugby World Cup in New Zealand in 2022 should a decision be made by World Rugby this weekend to postpone this year’s tournament. World Rugby is recommending the event be postponed until next year due to COVID-19, with a final decision to ...
Community and social service support providers have again swung into action to help people and families affected by the current COVID-19 alert levels. “The Government recognises that in many instances social service, community, iwi and Whānau Ora organisations are best placed to provide vital support to the communities impacted by ...
The Government is following through on an election promise to conduct an independent review into PHARMAC, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Health Minister Andrew Little announced today. The Review will focus on two areas: How well PHARMAC performs against its current objectives and whether and how its performance against these ...
Some of the country’s most forward-thinking early-career conservationists are among recipients of a new scholarship aimed at supporting a new generation of biodiversity champions, Conservation Minister Kiri Allan says. The Department of Conservation (DOC) has awarded one-year postgraduate research scholarships of $15,000 to ten Masters students in the natural ...
I acknowledge our whānau overseas, joining us from Te Whenua Moemoeā, and I wish to pay respects to their elders past, present, and emerging. Thank you for the opportunity to speak with you all today. I am very pleased to be part of the conversation on Indigenous business, and part ...
Social Development and Employment Minister Carmel Sepuloni announced today that main benefits will increase by 3.1 percent on 1 April, in line with the rise in the average wage. The Government announced changes to the annual adjustment of main benefits in Budget 2019, indexing main benefit increases to the average ...
A Deed of Settlement has been signed between Ngāti Maru and the Crown settling the iwi’s historical Treaty of Waitangi claims, Minister for Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations Andrew Little announced today. The Ngāti Maru rohe is centred on the inland Waitara River valley, east to the Whanganui River and its ...
With a suite of Government income support packages available, Minister for Social Development and Employment Carmel Sepuloni is encouraging people, and businesses, connected to the recent Auckland COVID-19 cases to check the Work and Income website if they’ve been impacted by the need to self-isolate. “If you are required to ...
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has expressed her condolences at the passing of long-serving former Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea, Grand Chief Sir Michael Somare. “Our thoughts are with Lady Veronica Somare and family, Prime Minister James Marape and the people of Papua New Guinea during this time of great ...
E te tī, e te tā Tēnei te mihi maioha ki a koutou Ki te whenua e takoto nei Ki te rangi e tū iho nei Ki a tātou e tau nei Tēnā tātou. It’s great to be with you today, along with some of the ministerial housing team; Hon Peeni Henare, the ...
The Government is backing a new project to use drone technology to transform our understanding and protection of the Māui dolphin, Aotearoa’s most endangered dolphin. “The project is just one part of the Government’s plan to save the Māui dolphin. We are committed to protecting this treasure,” Oceans and Fisheries ...
Major water reform has taken a step closer with the appointment of the inaugural board of the Taumata Arowai water services regulator, Hon Nanaia Mahuta says. Former Director General of Health and respected public health specialist Dame Karen Poutasi will chair the inaugural board of Crown agency Taumata Arowai. “Dame ...
The newly completed Hibiscus Coast Bus Station will help people make better transport choices to help ease congestion and benefit the environment, Transport Minister Michael Wood and Auckland Mayor Phil Goff said today. Michael Wood and Phil Goff officially opened the Hibiscus Coast Bus Station which sits just off the ...
New funding announced by Conservation Minister Kiri Allan today will provide work and help protect the unique values of Northland’s Te Ārai Nature Reserve for future generations. Te Ārai is culturally important to Te Aupōuri as the last resting place of the spirits before they depart to Te Rerenga Wairua. ...
Today the Government has taken a key step to support Pacific people to becoming Community Housing providers, says the Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio. “This will be great news for Pacific communities with the decision to provide Pacific Financial Capability Grant funding and a tender process to ...
Conservation Minister Kiri Allan is encouraging New Zealanders to have their say on a proposed marine mammal sanctuary to address the rapid decline of bottlenose dolphins in Te Pēwhairangi, the Bay of Islands. The proposal, developed jointly with Ngā Hapū o te Pēwhairangi, would protect all marine mammals of the ...
Attorney-General David Parker today announced the appointment of three new District Court Judges. Two of the appointees will take up their roles on 1 April, replacing sitting Judges who have reached retirement age. Kirsten Lummis, lawyer of Auckland has been appointed as a District Court Judge with jury jurisdiction to ...
Government announces list of life-shortening conditions guaranteeing early KiwiSaver access The Government changed the KiwiSaver rules in 2019 so people with life-shortening congenital conditions can withdraw their savings early The four conditions guaranteed early access are – down syndrome, cerebral palsy, Huntington’s disease and fetal alcohol spectrum disorder An alternative ...
The Reserve Bank is now required to consider the impact on housing when making monetary and financial policy decisions, Grant Robertson announced today. Changes have been made to the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee’s remit requiring it to take into account government policy relating to more sustainable house prices, while working ...
The Labour Government will invest $6 million for 70 additional adult cochlear implants this year to significantly reduce the historical waitlist, Health Minister Andrew Little says. “Cochlear implants are life changing for kiwis who suffer from severe hearing loss. As well as improving an individual’s hearing, they open doors to ...
The Local Electoral (Māori Wards and Māori Constituencies) Amendment Bill passed its third reading today and will become law, Minister of Local Government Hon Nanaia Mahuta says. “This is a significant step forward for Māori representation in local government. We know how important it is to have diversity around ...
The Government has added 1,000 more transitional housing places as promised under the Aotearoa New Zealand Homelessness Action Plan (HAP), launched one year ago. Minister of Housing Megan Woods says the milestone supports the Government’s priority to ensure every New Zealander has warm, dry, secure housing. “Transitional housing provides people ...
A second batch of Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines arrived safely yesterday at Auckland International Airport, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins says. “This shipment contained about 76,000 doses, and follows our first shipment of 60,000 doses that arrived last week. We expect further shipments of vaccine over the coming weeks,” Chris Hipkins said. ...
The Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Carmel Sepuloni has today announced $18 million to support creative spaces. Creative spaces are places in the community where people with mental health needs, disabled people, and those looking for social connection, are welcomed and supported to practice and participate in the arts ...
Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations Minister Andrew Little today welcomed Moriori to Parliament to witness the first reading of the Moriori Claims Settlement Bill. “This bill is the culmination of years of dedication and hard work from all the parties involved. “I am delighted to reach this significant milestone today,” Andrew ...
22,400 fewer children experiencing material hardship 45,400 fewer children in low income households on after-housing costs measure After-housing costs target achieved a year ahead of schedule Government action has seen child poverty reduce against all nine official measures compared to the baseline year, Prime Minister and Minister for Child Poverty ...
It’s time to recognise the outstanding work early learning services, kōhanga reo, schools and kura do to support children and young people to succeed, Minister of Education Chris Hipkins says. The 2021 Prime Minister’s Education Excellence Awards are now open through until April 16. “The past year has reminded us ...
Three new Jobs for Nature projects will help nature thrive in the Bay of Plenty and keep local people in work says Conservation Minister Kiri Allan. “Up to 30 people will be employed in the projects, which are aimed at boosting local conservation efforts, enhancing some of the region’s most ...
The Government has accepted all of the Holidays Act Taskforce’s recommended changes, which will provide certainty to employers and help employees receive their leave entitlements, Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Michael Wood announced today. Michael Wood said the Government established the Holidays Act Taskforce to help address challenges with the ...
The Government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and faster than expected economic recovery has been acknowledged in today’s credit rating upgrade. Credit ratings agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) today raised New Zealand’s local currency credit rating to AAA with a stable outlook. This follows Fitch reaffirming its AA+ rating last ...
Tena koutou e nga Maata Waka Ngai Tuahuriri, Ngai Tahu whanui, Tena koutou. Nau mai whakatau mai ki tenei ra maumahara i te Ru Whenua Apiti hono tatai hono, Te hunga mate ki te hunga mate Apiti hono tatai hono, Te hunga ora ki te hunga ora Tena koutou, Tena ...
The Minister of Justice has reaffirmed the Government’s urgent commitment, as stated in its 2020 Election Manifesto, to ban conversion practices in New Zealand by this time next year. “The Government has work underway to develop policy which will bring legislation to Parliament by the middle of this year and ...
Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage and Social Development Hon Carmel Sepuloni today launched a new Creative Careers Service, which is expected to support up to 1,000 creatives, across three regions over the next two years. The new service builds on the most successful aspects of the former Pathways to ...
Did you sense the roads were busier in this Auckland lockdown than previous ones? Google mobility data indicates that you’re right.More people were going to work, and more heading out shopping, during the current lockdown in Auckland than during the August equivalent, which also took place under alert level three ...
The only statement to emerge from the Beehive in the past two days was cheery in tone but foreshadowed further increases in the funding devoted to mental health. The statement was issued by Health Minister Andrew Little, who welcomed the Initial Mental Health and Wellbeing Commission’s assessment that transformation ...
The New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union is condemning Wellington City Council’s refusal to consult on the privatisation of the central library as undemocratic. “Wellingtonians threatened with a 13.5 percent rate hike deserve a full menu of cost-saving options ...
This morning the Māori Party confirmed their new National Executive including Che Wilson, Fallyn Flavell, John Tamihere and Kaiarahi Takirua: Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. Wilson returns for a second term as President and the two new members ...
New Zealand is now two weeks into the largest immunisation programme ever undertaken here, with border and managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ) workers first in line. “We are so proud of our people for doing the right thing by stepping up and being ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Camilo López-Aguirre, PhD Candidate, UNSW Scientists have found another piece in the puzzle of how echolocation evolved in bats, moving closer to solving a decades-long evolutionary mystery. All bats — apart from the fruit bats of the family Pteropodidae (also called flying ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jordy Meekes, Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne That Australian women earn less than Australian men is well-known. The latest calculation put the gap – the extent to which the average female full-time wage is ...
All the major news events, which will hopefully not be too many. Get in touch at info@thespinoff.co.nz Help keep The Spinoff alive and kicking. Click here to learn how you can support The Spinoff from as little as $1.8.00am: The day aheadThere are a couple of things we’ll be looking out ...
In this week's Critic's Choice review, Guy Somerset watches I Care a Lot on Amazon Prime and wonders if kindness has its limits Do you think Jacinda Ardern has been watching I Care a Lot? It would explain a lot, As Newsroom political editor Jo Moir wrote earlier this week, ...
By Ramzy Baroud At a glance, it may appear that the split of Arab political parties in Israel is consistent with a typical pattern of political and ideological divisions which have afflicted the Arab body politic for many years. This time, however, the ...
Discovering that her favourite summer drink is apparently an offence against wine, Charlotte Muru-Lanning sets out to uncover whether it’s actually so awful to serve red wine on the rocks.After many summers spent pouring red wine over ice without much thought, it recently struck me that maybe this combination was, ...
LISTEN: Extra Time examines two big issues in women's sport this week - postponing the Rugby World Cup and the Silver Ferns' battle for the crown that eludes them. Poised at one game a piece, can the Silver Ferns overcome a spirited young Australian Diamonds side and end a nine-year drought without netball's ...
"If Maggie said she was going to bake a cake, Lois always turned up with one that was bigger, more chocolatey and with fancier icing": a shaggy cake story by Shani Naylor. It was 2am. Maggie opened her eyes and lay still in bed. She could hear her husband Ken's ...
The art world is being bombarded with something called ‘non-fungible tokens’. We asked artist and crypto expert Simon Denny to help us explain what they are.At first glimpse, a gif of Nyan Cat is nothing special. It’s a bit cute, a bit nostalgic. So why did one sell for US$450,000? ...
Journalists avoid his calls, editors loathe it when he highlights mistakes. But he reckons he’s not scary at all. Chris Schulz meets RNZ’s Mr Mediawatch, Colin Peacock.Over his summer holidays, Colin Peacock tried to switch off. For much of the previous 12 months, the 52-year-old host of Radio ...
While it has since been deleted and apologised for, an op-ed by former Labour MP Michael Bassett published by the Northland Age and the NZ Herald this week caused an uproar for its racist cherry-picking and false reporting of historical facts. Historian Scott Hamilton sets the record straight.Michael Bassett is ...
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Deaths, West Europe still not “out of the woods”. Chart by Keith Rankin. Deaths, East Europe remains a major concern. Chart by Keith Rankin. At first glance through our rear-vision mirror, western Europe had a substantial spring outbreak of Covid19, and further outbreaks in spring and ...
A starter’s list for the national Aotearoa museum of the sporting damned. Richard Irvine confronts the demons.The sunGenerally it’s hard to make an argument against the giver of all life, as it provides photosynthesis, vitamin D and enables a wide range of recreational activities. But when it runs rampant around ...
Auckland can breathe a sigh relief knowing at 6am on Sunday the region will move down to Alert Level 2 after another seven long days in lockdown. Government and health officials are now turning their minds to lessons learnt, following a week of mixed messaging, rule-breaking and blame and shame, writes political ...
Three future scenarios after today’s large offshore earthquakes.A trio of serious earthquakes saw parts of Aotearoa shaken, tsunami threats triggered, and tens of thousands of people heading inland after evacuation instructions.Of the magnitude-7-plus events, the first, shortly before 2.30am, was centered off East Cape. Measuring 7.1, it was felt across ...
Analysis - The prime minister came down hard on lockdown rule-breakers but were they clearly told what they had to do? Peter Wilson looks into the reports as another crisis lurks in the background. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deborah Gleeson, Associate professor, La Trobe University News of the blockage of a shipment of 250,000 COVID-19 vaccines from Europe to Australia has caused concern and outrage. The immediate problem will probably be quickly solved through diplomatic channels. Even if it is ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Stern, Professor of Geophysics, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington The Tonga Kermadec subduction zone stretches between New Zealand and south of Samoa.USGS, CC BY-SA A sequence of three major offshore earthquakes, including a magnitude 8.1 quake near ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra University of Canberra Professorial Fellow Michelle Grattan and Director of the Institute for Governance & Policy Analysis Dr Laine Dare discuss the week in politics. This week the pair discuss some of the 148 recommendations ...
The minister responsible for the country's spy agencies says they can't constantly monitor the internet to identify terror threats and instead rely on the public to raise the alarm. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Collins, Laureate Professor in Nutrition and Dietetics, University of Newcastle Celebrity testimonials abound for pills, potions and creams that purport to make you look younger. This time collagen supplements are in the spotlight, after Jennifer Aniston became the face of one ...
Have the government’s Covid-related messages been getting through to Pacific and non-Pacific ethnic communities in South Auckland? Justin Latif tried to find out.John Pulu is one of the best-known television and radio personalities in New Zealand’s Pacific community. He not only fronts TVNZ’s Tagata Pasifika Saturday morning show, but also hosts ...
James Elliott tries to work out what made Mike Hosking and Brian Tamaki tick everyone off this week. The week started with Aucklanders back under Alert level 3 and Mike Hosking on Alert Level 6. “Mike’s Minute” on NewstalkZB on Monday, which as usual lasted significantly longer than a minute, ...
Fonterra has confirmed what most analysts had been predicting and lifted its 2020/21 forecast farmgate milk price range to $7.30 – $7.90 kg/MS, up from $6.90 – $7.50. This should send a further surge of confidence across NZ’s rural regions, hopefully in a wave strong enough to encourage farmers to ...
A Financial Times leader delivers advice that Finance Minister Grant Robertson should (but probably won’t) consider. Essentially, the advice is to resist the temptation to involve the central bank in the challenge of slowing the rise in house prices. Changing regulation and reforming planning law is a smarter way to ...
The NZ Superannuation Fund has divested from five Israeli banks due to their suspected involvement in illegal settlement construction. Michael Andrew reports.The Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation, an autonomous crown entity and manager of the multi-billion NZ Super Fund, has divested from five Israeli banks due to their funding of ...
A contestant on the new season of The Bachelor has apologised for ‘controversial’ social media posts comparing mask wearing to ‘slavery’ and for questioning the scientific consensus around Covid-19. Stewart Sowman-Lund reports.Shivani Pragji is – according to her LinkedIn profile – a solicitor working for the Ministry of Business, Innovation ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Luke Heemsbergen, PhD, Media and Politics, Deakin University A couple of days ago, the musician Grimes sold some animations she made with her brother Mac on a website called Nifty Gateway. Some were one-offs, while others were limited editions of a few ...
Analysis: We are able to send a blaring alert to the phone of every New Zealanders to warn of Covid lockdowns, yet we still struggle to warn them of the danger of a tsunami This coming week, it will be 10 years since Japan was hit by the Tohoku earthquake, one ...
Moa brewery sold in February for $1.9m, leaving behind an unsavoury legacy. Michael Andrew speaks to the new owner about how the brewery plans to move forward, while at the same time returning to its Marlborough roots.Moa Brewing Company’s new owner Stephen Smith has criticised the company’s old marketing strategy, ...
By RNZ News An 8.0 earthquake has struck near the Kermadec Islands, hours after a 7.4 quake near the Kermadecs and a 7.1 off the North Island coast, A 7.4 quake struck near the Kermadec Islands earlier this morning. The islands are 800km to 1000km from New Zealand. National Emergency ...
National Parks are being closed off to allow fallow deer to be bombarded with 1080 poison. The proposal has drawn strong criticism from the Australian hunting public and also New Zealand’s Sporting Hunters Outdoor Trust. Laurie Collins, spokesman ...
In the fallout from the Dirty Politics defamation hearing, how can the Food and Grocery Council and its chief continue to deny involvement in attacks on public health academics? Tim Murphy explains its stance. The middleman has 'fessed up. So where does that leave the two prominent players on either side ...
Mike Hosking is a king of breakfast radio, a lover of blazers, and deliverer of opinions via his long-running online video series, Mike’s Minute. José Barbosa absorbed three months’ worth of those opinions in one go, and lived to tell the tale. Just. To be honest, I hadn’t thought about ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 The Song of Achilles by Madeline Miller (Bloomsbury, $25)This 2011 bestseller set during the Trojan War has ...
A new poem from Melbourne-based poet Grace Yee.I have heardthat the price of a pound of gold has gone grey over the last couple of monthsthat the first sovereign lord beheaded his grandsonthat chinese market gardeners in suburbia shipped out after decades of fastingand purificationthat evil-intentioned hooligans penetrated the palace ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dave Parry, Professor of Computer Science, Auckland University of Technology Although international travel restrictions for Australia have been extended to at least June, there may still be potential for a trans-Tasman bubble with New Zealand (and maybe some other countries), according to ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jamie Triccas, Professor of Medical Microbiology, University of Sydney The United States’ drug regulator, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), said last week COVID vaccines updated for variants won’t need to go through full randomised controlled clinical trials. The booster shots will ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel Milte, Matthew Flinders Senior Research Fellow, Flinders University The final report from the aged care royal commission this week was damning. Speaking of a system in crisis, it calls for an urgent overhaul. The Morrison government has been facing difficult questions ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David John Eldridge, Professor of Dryland Ecology, UNSW After 200 years of European farming practices, Australian soils are in bad shape – depleted of nutrients and organic matter, including carbon. This is bad news for both soil health and efforts to address ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Zoe Vaill, PhD Candidate Faculty of Education, Queensland University of Technology Students are heading off to universities around Australia, whether for the first time or as returning students, with expectations of a year of learning, making friends and enjoyable socialising. For some ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jan Thomas, Vice-Chancellor, Massey University As first-year students flooded onto campuses around the country this week, gripped with uncertainty and curiosity about their new lives, I too returned to university to learn. For the first time since what feels like forever, but ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW After years of repeatedly missing its inflation target through too timid monetary policy, in the past week the Reserve Bank has decided to get tough. Not only did it hold its closely watched cash rate target ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter McNeil, Distinguished Professor of Design History, UTS, University of Technology Sydney It’s Sydney Lesbian and Gay Mardi Gras festival time. LGBTQI people are enjoying what some call “gay or lesbian Christmas”. It’s not quite the same in the era of COVID, ...
A tech expert is warning the government could face multiple stumbling blocks if it makes QR code scanning mandatory - in particular when dealing with tech giants like Apple and Google. ...
*This story first appeared on RNZ and is republished with permission. A tsunami alert has been issued after a 7.4 earthquake near the Kermadec Islands. The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) says it expects strong and unusual currents and unpredictable surges at the shore. It says the threat is from ...
Live coverage of the snap lockdown and the search for a source of the latest infection. Auckland is now at alert level three, NZ at level two. Get in touch at stewart@thespinoff.co.nz 7.50am: Two major earthquakes strike; tsunami warning in placeTwo major earthquakes have struck off the coast of New Zealand ...
Good morning and welcome to The Bulletin. In today’s edition: Cabinet to decide on lifting lockdown today, questions raised about the stability of the housing market, and people instinctively respond to tsunami threat after earthquake.A decision will be made today on whether or not Auckland will come out of level ...
The military is showing little sign of backing down, but the coup could have the unintended consequence of unifying Myanmar society in opposition, across significant ethnic divisions. A month ago, citing dubious claims of electoral fraud in the November 2020 election, Myanmar’s military deposed the country’s democratically elected National League for Democracy ...
This week's biggest-selling New Zealand books, as recorded by the Nielsen BookScan New Zealand bestseller list and described by Steve BrauniasFICTION 1 Auē by Becky Manawatu (Makaro Press, $35) "She wrote a lot of Auē in a family friend’s house at the moody mouth of the Mokihunui River, 20km ...
A Harvard professor presenting his opinions on alien life as fact when the field at large doesn't agree is misrepresenting science, argues Dr Heloise Stevance For years now Abraham (Avi) Loeb has been a rather passionate advocate for what I call 'The Alien Hypothesis' 一 the idea that extraterrestrial lifeforms are the source of ...
Anna Rawhiti-Connell doesn't want an investment or an asset, but a home. Yet because of last century’s broken promises, she feels like an idiot fish, destined to swim against a current with other idiot fish who think their life savings and lifelong debt will guarantee them a house. We went to some open homes ...
All eyes are on the Prime Minister to schedule the rollout – or flyout – to the more remote corners of NZ and the Pacific There is growing anticipation about the announcement of the Covid vaccine rollout to New Zealand's general population and the Pacific realm countries. The schedule is close ...
Were we right to leave lockdown so early after the Valentine's Day cluster was first discovered? And was our return to lockdown a result of anything more than bad luck? Marc Daalder reports Ashley Bloomfield and Jacinda Ardern fronted a press conference on February 17, three days after Auckland plunged ...
With the America's Cup first-to-seven showdown about to begin, Suzanne McFadden asks a six-time winner how much could it come down to the helmsmen? Murray Jones knows the exact essence of what makes an America’s Cup helmsman great. A phenomenal Kiwi sailor in his own right, Jones has worked alongside ...
Rio Olympian Helena Gasson may be one of the oldest Kiwi swimmers still at the top of their game, but she's found a new gear - breaking 20 NZ records in the past 18 months. Even in the year of Covid, with her plans abruptly changed and her training schedule interrupted, Helena ...
After literally thousands of requests, we’ve finally caved. We’ve decided to rank beans in an arbitrary yet unequivocally correct fashion.A-mung the current chaos of the world we live in, there’s an inherent desire to create order. Some found that order in the first lockdown by cleaning their house or exercising ...
A bar planned for Auckland’s St Kevin’s Arcade is facing opposition from locals concerned about the character of the owner, former Married at First Sight contestant Chris Mansfield, who still faces outstanding domestic violence charges in the US.The two lots inside St Kevin’s Arcade where Chris Mansfield plans to open ...
We thought the Covid messages were clear - but the latest Auckland lockdown has muddied the message. One political strategist says it's been like "putting tomato sauce on ice cream". New Zealand's Covid-19 communications response has been hailed the world over. Its success has catapulted us into the pages ...
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Who are the Nats aiming at with this? https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/10-12-2018/simon-bridges-must-stop-pandering-to-the-alt-right-on-the-global-compact/
It is flaky. The theory is Bridges is trying to wedge Peters but it is really clumsy and makes them look like Breitbart reading loons.
Wonder if it is driven more by appealing to some of the party’s factions?
or funders.
Selling list places to anyone might have made some more rabid tories a bit angry. They might not change their vote, but with-holding cash would make the nats shit bricks.
hold me back! hold me back!
+1 @ McFlock
You say ‘rabid’, I say feral.
And that’s only because the feral right wing are still doing calculations and wondering how they can dress their thinking up nicely (even amongst their own ranks). If you pushed me hard enough, I’d say there’d be a Satchel (full of ill-gotten gains and notes for a future mercenary’s novel) and others busy on their calculators that go something along the lines:
1 chink = 2 nargies, and 1 chink = 1,000 slopes, and ……..
all the while feigning outrage at those “Chinese sounding names”.
the ‘names’ thing was an unprovoked self-inflicted wound from Labour. Best leave it.
Ah, Richard Harman reads it as wedging Winston First: http://politik.co.nz/en/content/politics/1486/ (apparently paywalled though my simple browser script-blocker seems to defeat that).
Wonder where Nat voters would go once they realise that?
NZF will be at 10-12% come next Election no doubts about it
How do you figure that?
Half the voters at the last election probably wanted Winston to keep National honest so a fair few of them won’t be happy with Winston and Nationals support is holding steady so where will the voters come from because it won’t be Labour with Jacinda as leader and I doubt many Green voters will go with Winston
Puckers
Colmar Brunton (29 September 2017)
https://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-who-should-nz-first-support-labour-or-national/
You and your facts. 🙂
You mean National 10-12%.
In Australia Scott Morrison and Andrew Scheer the Conservative Party leader in Canada both had a go at this too. All singing from the same songbook. If it’s the UN it must be bad.
Its very clear, National keep asking questions in the house that reflect more on their own failings when in govt. Today was no exception, tomorrow will be the same. Simon Bridges unwittingly keeps cross examining himself and his party’s past poor performance.
Meanwhile the Hosk plans to spend the holidays boning up on his questions in the faint hope he may trip up the PM next year. Not likely if this years spinouts are anything to go by.
The chooser of the image for tonights DR might think about saying taihoa on calling SB out. It is going very well thank you as things are so why not let sleeping dogs lie instead of falling to the temptation to kick whenever passing?
Nah, Bridges is a dickhead and should be kicked till he leaves. I say give each opposition MP a go at being leader and show them Nats up for the rotten, useless waste of space that they are.
No no keep going, the more Soimon is kicked the sooner he’s replaced by someone else…
National are at least over 40% with an unpopular leader so imagine what might happen if they get a leader that people like or at least respect or has recognition or…something
Bridges is the best of all the dickheads in the opposition, thats the big problem for the Nats.
We’ll take that under advisement
And it won’t be Judith Collins.
Judith’s lacklustre performance over the last few months must be concerning for her sycophants.
She used to have some charisma and energy, but now she just looks bored and uninspiring. She’s been in Parliament for 16 years and she still can’t get enough support from her colleagues. Paula’s a better leadership prospect now than tired worn out Judith.
Judith represents the past, not the future.
@Fireblade (3.2.1.2) … Agree with you re Judith Collins.
However I can’t see Paula as leader. She’s too lazy. Hasn’t achieved much, if anything at all as deputy leader of Natz that I can see, other than pulling odd faces and rolling her eyes in Parliament, if that can be considered as anything achievable!
You mean they are not at 46%?
I read someone say they were on 38%.
It wasn’t that long ago Labour had its own issues with internal polling, if you remember however if Nationals polling at 41% with an unpopular leader imagine what National could poll if he’s replaced by someone that can inspire (even Labour managed it, eventually) Nationals supporters
Anything could happen after a decade, a not so dickish head may even be found. Keep searching Nats.
I imagine they could get as high as 45% with a competent leader, PR. And assuming Winston sticks with Labour, National need 48.5% plus their Epsom charity case to even come close. However, I’ve already made the case that the next potential National PM isn’t currently in Parliament anyway. I mean, have you looked at the current Tory caucus? Not exactly a Ministry of All the Talents.
Well if a weeks a long time in politics a couple of years is an eternity
However its not guaranteed Winston, the Greens or both will be back in power given how most minor parties lose support (I suspect the Greens will get back in) and that would make things interesting
However heres a prediction for you, the next leaders debate will be between Jacinda, Nationals leader…and Winston
To win, National most likely need to make friends or hope Labour lose their friends.
To win, Labour just need to keep their friends.
It is true Nationals road back to power is hard no doubt about that but Labours certainly isn’t all smooth either
National does have the bonus that that they ousted for being “bad” as such, the economy was running well, unemployment was low and all that so the lingering feelings of resentment arn’t there or at least as bad as other former governments
Just reminds me of 2008.
Reasonably popular new coalition government with a few minor problems and new policies that infuriate the faithful on the other side. The opposition with major issues in their ranks and leaking like a sieve with barely concealed blood-letting and slowly descending in the polls. Less in the first term than they did in later terms.
Could you remind me how long the Key government lasted? And please don’t weep. The site needs work – not being drowned in tears.
That fact is that the electorate carries a lot of inertia about changing governments. From memory there were only two one term governments since the 1940s – the last in 1972-75. Overturning them required the concerted lying by National politicians and their braying friends in a concentrated media. I don’t think that kind of thing can happen now. There is simply too much independent scrutiny to play the authoritative voice ploy.
There are similarities for sure except the blood letting is happening sooner rather than later (and should have started much earlier in my opinion) and the opposition is still over 40%
But yes it is disappointing that National doesn’t seem to have learnt anything from Labours time in the wilderness…maybe National need a strong leader, a take no prisoners type of leader to sort out the naughty boys causing problems
lol
When BM stops being so darned sour I’ll think maybe the nats are on the rise again.
” … the next leaders debate will be between Jacinda, Nationals leader…and Winston”
Or just between Jacinda and Winston 😉
(Hell, why not cut the crap and just let Winston debate a mirror. He gets to choose the winner anyway)
(Hell, why not cut the crap and just let Winston debate a mirror. He gets to choose the winner anyway)
Would he agree with himself or end up arguing with himself?
I suspect he’d fall in love.
You have a very fertile imagination TRP.
I imagine so 😉
The long, deeply sad tale of Emil and Xaver, full of twists and turns and the translation isn’t quite there, but worth the read.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1071151411436666880.html
thanks for that. What a lovely find.
Emil and Xaver are are indeed interred in Sighisoara but I’m pretty sure the author’s applied a fair dollop of his own dramatic license to the yarn.
every good story contains a lot of yarn. Can’t knit without it. 🙂
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/109252701/justice-minister-andrew-little-urges-british-media-to-ensure-justice-for-grace-millane
Yeah this is the problem, its not hard to find out the accused name yet I’m not sure what can be done unless every country signed up to the same name suppression laws but even then…
Makes you wonder why the defence pressed for name suppression doesn’t it puckers. No. not really.
Timely.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/109254302/paremoremo-prison-an-inmates-view-from-the-inside
good read.
US doing exactly what it accuses China of doing : https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/109255452/us-warning-to-new-zealand-on-china
Creepy AF.
Since Millane’s death, her personal Facebook page has been turned into a remembrance page now dubbed “Remembering Grace Emmie Rose Millane”.
One of the posts on her page on November 29 was made by the man now accused of taking her life.
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/national/murder-accused-messaged-beautiful-grace-on-her-fb-page/
Scrutinizing Jane Clifton’s claims as an exemplar of the current Media Orthodoxy
.
Jane Clifton (Politics column in latest Listener ‘For Whom the Polls Tell’ December 15 2018)
.
First :
.
Right, so what is that “enduring poll trend” that Clifton deems absolutely phenomenal ?
.
2018 Colmar Bruntons
Nat ratings
Feb 43% … , April 44% … , May 45% … , Aug 45% … , Oct 43% … , Nov 46%
.
Is it true that: “No first-term Opposition Party in living memory has polled anywhere near” these figures ?
As it happens … No, it Bloody Isn’t !
Back in September, I did a comparison of Major Opposition Party support 10 Months after their Election defeat (ie comparing the Bridges-led Nats Aug 2018 45% rating with its 6 predecessors at the same stage into their First Term). Here are the results:
_________________________________________
Table 1
_________________________________________
(In order Highest to Lowest Ratings)
1991 … Moore-led Labour 47.0%
2018 … Bridges-led National 45.0%
2000 … Shipley-led National 44.0%
1973 … Marshall-led National 44.0%
1985 … McLay-led National 43.0%
1976 … Rowling-led Labour 40.0%
2009 … Goff-led Labour 33.0%
____________________________________________
As Table 1 shows, National’s 45% support level was certainly above average but you’d have to say a long way from remarkable, phenomenal or Herculean.
Not only was Mike Moore’s 1991 Labour Party more popular at the 10 month mark but three other newly-defeated Opposition Parties (the Shipley / Marshall / McLay-led National Parties of 2000 / 1973 / 1985) each cluster immediately below their 2018 descendants, just a point or two adrift.
In all, fully 4 of the Bridges-led National Party’s predecessors were polling at or above the 43% rating that defined the Nats 2018 minimum (Feb / Oct), with one receiving more than its 46% maximum (Nov).
And this is in the context of a 2018 National Party that has managed to gobble up almost the entire Right Bloc vote. This dominance and consolidation on the Right, this muscling in on Minor Right-wing Party territory, not only results in an artificially boosted poll rating that inherently flatters National (because it’s not coming at the expense of the Coalition) but also encourages an exaggerated perception of broader Opposition Bloc popularity.
It’s quite clear, for instance, that – despite National’s reasonably good (as opposed to “phenomenal”) individual ratings at the 10 Month mark – overall opposition to the current Government was not in fact particularly strong at all.
Even when you conceive of Opposition Blocs in the most narrow possible terms (restricted solely to Opposition parties of close ideological proximity) (Table 2), the 2018 Nat+ACT Opposition still drops to third place, only slightly above the average.
_____________________________________
Table 2: Opposition Bloc Overall Support
(Close Ideological Proximity)
10 Month Mark
_____________________________________
1991 … 65.0%
2000 … 48.0%
2018 … 46.1%
1973 … 44.0%
1985 … 43.0%
1976 … 40.0%
2009 … 37.7%
_____________________________________
And when you broaden it out to Oppo Blocs in their widest possible sense (Table 3) the Bridges-led Nat+ACT Opposition falls to a decidedly average fourth out of seven.
_________________________________________
Table 3: Opposition Bloc Overall Support
(Broader Opposition)
10 Month Mark
________________________________________
1991 … 65.0
2000 … 51.0
1985 … 47.0
2018 … 46.1
1973 … 44.0
1976 … 40.0
2009 … 39.4
____________________________________________
.
Second
Clifton goes on to assert:
To see just how outrageous this claim is … go back to the comparative figures at the 10 month mark (Table 1).
“Mighty Impressive” compared to the 2009 Goff-led Labour Party (33%) ? … perhaps … compared to every other newly-defeated Opposition Party predecessor ? (40%, 43%, 44%, 44%, 47%) … I mean, give me a break, Not even Remotely !
And compared to Oppo Blocs as a whole ? … pitiful.
And remember, the Moore-led Labour Party of 1991 scored 47% despite its fellow Oppo Party (the newly-minted Alliance) skyrocketing up the polls as well … 18% at the 10 month mark, 32% at the 13 month mark.
Third
As always with the current Media Orthodoxy, Clifton erroneously tries to read the broader political zeitgeist from a myopic focus on National’s specific rating … a tactic that obscures far more than it reveals.
She – like almost every other senior political journalist – ignores the absolutely crucial flip side of the coin … comparative Government support.
My research at the 10 month mark suggests that while the Nats were mildly (3 points) above the average of their 6 predecessors … the Ardern Coalition was, at one and the same time, significantly (8 points) above its predecessors’ average.
(Reason why both above average … Unusually high support for Parliamentary parties / low support for extra-Parliamentary parties in the August 2018 Colmar Brunton compared to 10 month polls of previous First Terms).
The Ardern Administration was the second most popular and enjoyed the second widest lead over the Opposition at the 10 month mark (compared to its 6 predecessors)
See Table 4
_____________________________________________________________
Table 4 Govt vs Oppo Lead
10 month mark
_____________________________________________________________
Lead (1) Govt vs Oppo Bloc
Lead (2) Govt vs Major Oppo Party
_____________________________________________________________
2009 Lead (1) Govt + 20.6 … Lead (2) Govt + 27.0
2018 Lead (1) Govt + 6.9 … Lead (2) Govt + 8.0
1976 Lead (1) Govt + 6.0 … Lead (2) Govt + 6.0
1973 Lead (1) Govt + 3.0 … Lead (2) Govt + 3.0
1985 Lead (1) Oppo + 6.0 … Lead (2) Oppo + 2.0
2000 Lead (1) Oppo + 8.0 … Lead (2) Oppo + 1.0
1991 Lead (1) Oppo + 38.0 … Lead (2) Oppo + 20.0
_____________________________________________________________
Fourth
Jane Clifton goes on to suggest:
She discusses this in the context of voters supposedly being less than happy with the change of Government / the Party with the highest vote turfed out into Opposition.
But take a look at these figures and ask yourself whether or not there had been a Mood for Change in 2017:
_______________________________________________________________
Table 5: Right Bloc support at General Elections
2005-2017
_______________________________________________________________
2005 45.4%
2008 51.9% (+ 6.5)
2011 53.1% (+ 1,2)
2014 53.3% (+ 0.2)
2017 46.4% (- 6.9)
_________________________________________________________________
A 6.5 percentage point surge propelled the Key Govt into power and a 6.9 point plunge threw it out again.
(Figures include the Maori Party … but excluding them makes very little difference … the resultant stats would be … 2008 (+ 6.2), 2011 (+ 2.2), 2014 (+ 0.3), 2017 (- 6.8) )
And finally … just to emphasise that this truly is a broad Media Orthodoxy … here is a sampling of the excitable hyperbole generated by National’s 43-46% poll ratings this year:
“remarkable” (Jane Clifton), “astonishing” (Chris Trotter), “astounding” (HDPA), “staggering” (Tracy Watkins), “phenomenal” (Clifton), “Herculean” (Clifton), “near miraculous” (Matthew Hooton), “outstanding shape” (Hooton), “such high polling” (Hooton), “remarkably consistent” (Kathryn Ryan), “strong ratings” (Stephen Mills), “remarkable” (David Farrar), “astonishing” (Farrar), “frankly incredible” (Farrar), “excellent” (Farrar), “a great result for National” (Farrar), “a minor miracle” (Toby Manhire), “National’s continual strength” (Tim Watkin), “quite an achievement” (Watkin), “a worryingly large number of voters” (Trotter), “a big group of voters” (HDPA), “an alarmingly large number of New Zealanders” (Trotter), “a formidable unitary force” (Trotter), “steadfast opposition” (Trotter), “the most popular party” (Mike Hosking), “the biggest Opposition in history” (Hosking), “they’re doing fine” (Hosking), “They’re riding high and well” (Hosking), “largest party by a mile” (Hosking), “number one by some margin” (Hosking), “45% is a very, very good number by anyone’s standards” (Hosking), “The numbers tell you all you need to know about who’s got the upper hand right now” (Hosking), “historic levels” (Trish Sherson), “how could you not be happy with being at 46% after 9 years in power” (Kathryn Ryan), “there is much for National to be pleased about and a lot for Labour to be concerned about – namely the party vote” (Audrey Young), “brand National is stronger than they thought” (Young), “National’s high polling numbers” (Tracy Watkins), “National’s heroically high standing in the Polls” (Jane Clifton), “barnacle-like support” (Watkins), “probably unprecedented for a first-term Opposition” (Clifton), “still the more popular Party” (Watkins), “the only way is down” (Watkins), “National continues to ride high in the polls and that should be a huge wake-up call for Labour … Labour could lose” (Watkins).
Whew !!! And yet … as we’ve seen … National does not even remotely deserve all this hyperbolic overdrive
Great work Swordfish. Given the nature of MMP it could be that National have hit peak vote as they currently represent all the collective opposition. Red, black and green could be around for quite a while which presents a major conundrum for the blue team unless a new party or independent support emerges. How long before the Fourth Estate get their heads around the new reality.
I note the most egregiously positive voices in that cavalcade of compliance belong to Chris Trotter, Stephen Mills, Toby Manhire, and Tim Watkin. Always eager to curry favour with the right, these “liberals” are afraid to utter a word of dissent.
Here is Stephen Mills back in January 2016, scoffing at unions, and pouring cold water on both Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn…