So, a level 3+, but not quite 4, that gives just enough wriggle room for Mr and Mrs Ladidah Fuckwit to bolt to a holiday home before level 4 resumes? But with the possibility that Mr and/or Mrs Ladidah Fuckwit have packed the virus along with their carry bag or suitcase?
Easy enough to see how this might end somewhat "less than well".
Aye well, 'the rules' are one thing, but then there are the likes of students flying out of Auckland to the South Island on level 4 (still beyond me why there were any fcken domestic passenger flights out of Auckland). Peeps in private chartered planes and sons of judges running here and there at level 4.
And now …?
But still. As long as huge numbers of 'not very vulnerable' people get vaccinated with these leaky vaccines and drive the evolution of the virus such that erstwhile somewhat protected people are that much less protected. And as long as society is successfully encouraged to slate the cause for any rise in seriously ill peeps back to the dirty unvaccinated and vilify them accordingly…
The LaDiDahs ain't moving a muscle until we can change our freaking flights.
Soon as we can we will be straight to Dunedin to sort out mother-in-law's transition to rest home hospital care at Yvette Williams. Terrifying separation.
My ma passed away from cancer last April, after I had to help move her in to a nearby Rest Home & Hospital when she became too frail & unable to look after herself at home, & needed specialist trained end-of-life nursing care I couldn’t provide.
Moved her in Feb 2020, then L4 lockdown arrived for the whole motu. I was unable to visit her. We spoke on the phone for as long as she could manage it, but she passed away while still in L4.
I was fortunately phoned by a male nurse one Friday to say in his estimation she would go any day, & I could come up, masked, & visit with her for 10 minutes. She was by then unable to speak. Died two days later. The same nurse rang me the minute she passed away, & I was allowed to go up to her room & say good-bye, for which I was very grateful.
Her funeral (cremation) was completely no frills, with no attendees. Still in L4.
I was fortunate that even at 94 she’d been sharp as a knife & all her affairs were completely in order. It made executing her will & finalising all other matters very easy, & gave me the satisfaction of knowing that I’d carried out all her wishes & instructions to the letter. She would be proud of me, I know, and that’s what counted the most!
Hope when you do get to Dunners that all goes well for your wife’s mum, Ad.
When I married my late wife, an only child, I had the good fortune to pick up an extra set of parents. They treated me like their son. It was easy to reciprocate their care & affection.
I promised my wife that if anything happened to her, I’d stay in Tawa & look after them. My mum & dad approved. I had other siblings who could look to their welfare.
Aye. The nation's sleeves probably fair bulge with self-justifying laudable exceptions that would profess to be all about the humanity (and the ability to afford same).
Good that Auckland region will go down to L3, but the rest of the nation remains in L2 with the exception of the Mangatangi community, which will be in a quasi-L4 environment for 5 days.
Steady as she goes, with the effective but crude tools; staying the same course and not even moving the deckchairs.
Why jab? Serious question that. Unless you are vulnerable, all you will be doing is 'forcing' the evolution of the virus in a direction that evades vaccination.
There's a medical term for the phenomenon, but it escapes me at the moment.
Anyway. The vaccines are leaky. And given that fact, the best way to endanger vulnerable people is to insist that only mutations capable of sidestepping vaccinations thrive. I believe it's one reason why flu jabs (also leaky) are administered before the flu season and not rolled out to all and sundry during flu's seasonal outbreaks.
The term you’re looking for is selection pressure.
The older you are, the more ‘vulnerable’ you are; you don’t become ‘vulnerable’ overnight the day you turn 65 or whatever age you pick from the Excel stats tables that suits the narrative.
No vaccine is 100% effective and immune responses tend to drop over time, some slower than others. This is normal.
There will be newer (generations of) vaccines for Covid-19, quite possibly targeting more than one (dominant) strain each year.
Indeed, better to vaccine before the infectious season is upon us, which is what we’re doing now thanks to the artificial ‘pre-season’ conditions stemming from the elimination strategy. Problem is that evolution takes place virtually unabated in the rest of the world.
The mutation rate of Covid-19 is relatively (s)low.
As long as NZ sticks to the proven elimination strategy very few will catch Covid-19, even fewer will become seriously ill, and only rarely will a patient succumb to it – 27 in over 18 months.
Meanwhile, get as many preventative measures in place, including building as much population immunity as possible against current variants, which in reality is Delta. It is the best we can do under these shitty circumstances, unless you have a better suggestion.
Vaccination is, however, not a silver bullet.
PS despite annual multi-strain flu vaccinations, each year quite a few die of the disease. However, measures aimed at Covid-19 seem to have influenced those numbers. Gives you food for thought, doesn’t it?
That's true. The bit you're missing is "leaky". It is not generally the case that being vaccinated leaves you with around a 50/50 chance of being infected by a virus that will still replicate within you even though you're vaccinated and result in you being a spreader of infection.
There will be newer (generations of) vaccines for Covid-19, quite possibly targeting more than one (dominant) strain each year.
Maybe. And the development of a vaccine would generally take ten years or so. The fact we have a clutch of vaccines that we don't know the medium or long term risks of, should maybe be reason enough to pause for thought.
Indeed, better to vaccine before the infectious season is upon us, which is what we’re doing now thanks to the artificial ‘pre-season’ conditions stemming from the elimination strategy. Problem is that evolution takes place virtually unabated in the rest of the world.
It's a global pandemic. NZ's very low rates of infection doesn't mean that NZ is in some kind of "pre-flu season" situation. As you wrote, the virus is mutating all around us. That means we are slap bang in the high season.
The mutation rate of Covid-19 is relatively (s)low.
I'm not sure what you're basing that on. Regardless. There's an ever emerging list of VOIs VOCs (variations of interest and variations of concern). And since viruses replicate in 'silly numbers' and (to my point about mass vaccination exposing vulnerable sections of society) we are skewing the environment such that only mutations capable of avoiding the current leaky vaccinations spread and multiply…
A better move would be, as with flu, vaccinate the vulnerable, or those who consider themselves vulnerable. Do not create an environment, by vaccinating all and sundry, that decreases the already imperfect protection for the vulnerable amongst us.
For those who would not think themselves vulnerable, I guess attaining or maintaining a broadly healthy state wouldn't be a bad idea.
So Auckland spent about the same amount in level 4 this time as NZ did the first time around, but started this time with a lower number of cases.
This seems to have saved a few more people from being infected at the peak of the current outbreak (speed saves lives and illnesses!), but this outbreak is slightly wider at the ~20 per day mark. Which we probably all kinda knew.
So, factors that can affect the curve (off the top of my head):
Contagiousness: yes, but wouldn't we expect a wider pattern for the full height of the current curve, rather than this little step at the bottom? The delta of doom should have been more difficult to confront at the peak as well as near the base if projected R0 was the main factor affecting our ability to control it.
Specific communities affected: A community with less exposure to, access to, or trust in government organisations and providers being impacted this time around could be the bulk of the "long tail", true. This could be our longstanding and oft-lamented (or denied by the privileged) inequities in access to healthcare could be biting us in the covid response.
Lockdown fatigue: No idea of the stats on this, but maybe people have let their definitions of "essential" and "bubble" slip. Not just the high-profile cases, but the daily grind of distancing on store runs, not chatting with friends or neighbours face to face, that sort of thing. The top gets knocked off the outbreak, but folks fall into silly habits and keep covid ticking over.
I think the curve indicates that the middle and last possibilities are the main drivers for the shape of the curve, rather than delta being significantly more difficult to stamp out than covd mk1.
Based on what I've seen, people are less inclined to follow the 'rules' to the letter this time around… partly because there are less unknowns this time… ie we know outdoor transmission is rare so chatting in the garden, park, beach etc is very low risk. .. you can also add to that vaccination, once you've had a jab or two it's very clear the risks you face are very small so rather than have the mental health struggle, cabin fever etc you expand your bubble… you add those cohorts to non belivers it makes a significant number of people.
the vaxxed thinking they're all good is a concern. I saw this play out with people I knew in the US who once they were vaccinated started travelling. Seemed mad even then, but now it's clear that vaccinated people can still transmit, we need more emphasis on hand washing, masks, appropriate distancing.
Statistically unless you have significant comorbidities once you are double vaxxed an even single vaxxed you are 'all good' very hard to tell someone who has done their bit in getting vaxxed that actually you still have to maintain distance etc… as the vaxxed percentage grows lockdowns are going to become less and less politically feasible.
Basically from todays decision onwards I suspect things get alot harder for the govt… in that acceptance of returning to a level 4 lockdown isnt going to be there but at the same time our health system will not cope with an outbreak even amongst the 25 percent or so people who haven’t been vaxxed
The study shows that vaccinated people who become infected with the Delta variant carry high peak levels of virus. When the Alpha variant was dominant in the United Kingdom, vaccinated people who became infected had much lower peak viral loads.
The implications of this aren’t clear, Walker says. “Most of our tests are monthly; we can’t really say very much at all about how long people are infectious for and particularly whether that’s different with Delta,” she says. “Anyone who thinks that if they get infected having been vaccinated, they can’t transmit — that isn’t likely to be true.”
Part of the problem here is that much of the discussion about vaccines last year didn't make it clear that the covid vaccine gives partial not full immunity.
What I'm hearing from the government is that going forward we will need all the tools. Vaccination, hygiene practices, periodic probably localised lockdowns. The vaccine on its own won't be enough even if we get to very high rates.
The results, published in a preprint on 19 August1, suggest that both vaccines are effective against Delta after two doses, but that the protection they offer wanes with time. The vaccine made by Pfizer in New York City and BioNTech in Mainz, Germany, was 92% effective at keeping people from developing a high viral load — a high concentration of the virus in their test samples — 14 days after the second dose. But the vaccine’s effectiveness fell to 90%, 85% and 78% after 30, 60 and 90 days, respectively.
We're not going back to normal once everyone is vaccinated, we will have to create a new society. I don't think having to use multiple tools is a bad thing eg it's dropped the flu and cold rates too. I'd like to see us address poverty as a driver of respiratory illness, and also look at wellbeing more broadly. Lots of people I know (South Island) feel that there are benefits to lockdown beyond elimination of covid eg slowing down, time to reflect on what matters, better work/life balance. Obviously that's not been possible for everyone, and it's a perspective probably more outside of Auckland that's done the heavy lifting in the past year. But we don't need to be afraid of the uncertainty given we still have a very good public health response across the tools.
Thing is that hasnt really been the messaging… and its very clear from the stats and backed up but what we're told by govt that if double vaxxed your chances of getting seriously ill are extremely small so restrictions are going to be a hard sell. It seems at this point the best immunity comes from catching covid then having a single shot afterwards… and as Bill mentions above, leaky vaccines (as these are) come with their own potential issues.
Its going to be a long and difficult road and personally I feel that we haven't actually advanced our preparedness that much even though we bought ourselves alot of time with the first lockdown.
That belief is based on a few things, such as rushing builders into hospitals once we were in level 4 to commision more negative pressure rooms, running out of quarantine capacity very quickly, having to train more contact tracers mid out outbreak, nurses not fitted to N95 mask… all things we should have had ready to roll in the time we had… it's almost like there was great confidence that our border strategy would keep delta, imagine the fallout if it had arrived 8 weeks earlier before we had sufficient vaccine in the country…
It seems at this point the best immunity comes from catching covid then having a single shot afterwards…
Please, do tell us more. This is a major issue debated by experts and far from settled, AFAIK. However, nobody is actually arguing that one should deliberately catch Covid-19 first and then take a “single shot” (of which vaccine?) to build the “best immunity”. I look forward to being educated on this topic further.
but what we're told by govt that if double vaxxed your chances of getting seriously ill are extremely small so restrictions are going to be a hard sell.
The issue isn't only who gets ill, it's who passes covid on to others. Delta won't be the last variant, the current vaccines don't last that long. We are acting as if the vaccine is a silver bullet.
The government is between a rock and a hard place in terms of messaging. They have to balance hope with reality and uncertainty. No-one knows how this is going to play out, we're still in the novel part of the novel virus.
There are definitely holes in our covid response, some avoidable, some not. Each wave of pressure brings new learning and new adaptation. This is the world we live in, and even if covid passes, there will be future challenges and climate change means that everyone now lives an uncertain life. The more resiliency and adaptability we build now as a society, the better off we will be.
The idea that’s slowly growing, in Government and then the seed is planted in the public, is that lockdowns will hopefully be a thing of the past, but this doesn’t necessarily rule out Level 3 measures.
what's the current thinking on object transmission. Drinks at 2m on the drive might be fine until someone has to handle the wine glasses. Or is it all air and direct contact risk now?
Pretty sure I heard at least one of the TV station “Go To” virology experts say recently that surface transmission wasn’t really all that much of a concern these days. It’s airborne transmission that’s the primary vector.
Doesn’t mean the other usual experts agree with him. (Can’t remember who it was – a male though.)
We tend to be able to detect the more rare "elevator button" exposures simply because there are so few other connections and our contact tracing and genome sequencing are so on ball.
Try that in Texas, who the heck knows precisely who gave someone the covid.
But most hospo workers I've encountered are masked up and gloved/sanitisered up pretty well, so the contamination is minimal as long as you use sanitiser when using any eftpos keypads (if your cards aren't yet contactless).
When we were briefly in L4 in Welly this year, I noticed that the local supermarket staff didn’t seem to be assiduously wiping down all the trolley handles & wire cage tops after each use, as they were during L4 last year.
They were running a very clear system in 2020. You were only permitted to select a trolley from the disinfected trolley racks. Used trolleys went into a separate rack, further away from the doorkeepers, until they’d been sprayed & handles wiped down.
This last time, they were more into encouraging shoppers to use the gels & handsprays before selecting a trolley
Well, a lot of that is covered by basic food hygiene in most places. Controls against rotovirus or what have you also work against coronavirus.
I suspect covid means a lot more small places are now actually wearing gloves as often as they should have been all along (years ago friend of mine overheard her new deli counter boss saying so many more disposable gloves were being used since friend started – she was using the gloves to spec, nobody else was lol).
I commented elsewhere that it seems like people down south are taking precautions more seriously since the Auckland/Wanaka couple thing. Good.
Re wine glasses, I was thinking about the flux of the fuzzy boundaries in different levels. Does socialising on the driveway with a 2m distance increase the spread of the virus or decrease it because it enables people to do the other, more important measures better and for longer (someone might have already said this).
No, I think you are right. A more infectious virus just means that some types of interpersonal contact that would be relatively harmless with a less infectious pathogen, become more risky. Your lockdown therefore needs to limit contact somewhat more strictly to be as successful. But in the real world, this strictness has natural limits – it hits boundaries beyond which people will not or cannot comply. And those limits are not uniform across a population but are influenced by people's circumstances, knowledge, expectations, habits, etc.
Good to see some heat being put on at last. There has to be a deterrent. Their own community, now under L4 will be the judge. Hopefully the support, too.
That article is interesting raises a few questions though, ie if he caught it from the driver who was a family member do the live in the town he was bailed to or did they drive him from Auckland and they returned once he was dropped off… has the driver been tested? and where did they catch it from?
Then the accomodation was no longer available which reads like the family kicked him back out… you have to ask why… were unwelcome 'vistors' coming to the house? If thats the case there's going to be a sting in the tail… worrying really…
Living alone, I’d probably soon expire without a good stock of frozen Tomorrow’s Meals. One soon gets sick of cooking & doing pots, pans & other dishes for one most of the time.
“Three senior staff have departed the National Party’s Parliamentary office in recent weeks as the party’s poll ratings have plummeted.
Digital director Francis Till, press secretary Julia Stewart, and head of data and insights Sophie Lloyd have all departed. All have years of experience in Parliament.
“National leader Judith Collins has admitted she made a mistake after she was caught on video over the weekend ordering icecream at the counter of a Queenstown café without wearing a mask.
People living in Mangatangi or having visited/worked there are being told to stay home. If there's any outward transmission, new cases will be picked up and managed as per normal. They've had a few days to do contact and location tracing of the known cases, and I would guess they're also looking forward in time to surrounding areas. I also assume we're further ahead of the curve than we were with the original Auckland case that set of this outbreak.
Not sure about that if one of the kids was at school while infectious last week its very possible.it could have been passed on again and with the very short incubation Delta has its very possible someone else has picked it up, become infectious between Thursday last week and todays announcement and travelled into Hamilton for example
But, if the virus is in Hamilton it will spread fast because they are only in Level 2? Isn't it basically impossible to contain Delta with contract tracing in Level 2?
You can't contract trace ahead of time though? I agree with the last part, the source appears to be one of the people who drove him to the bail address.
If delta cases turn up in Hamilton, it won't stay at L2.
I don't know how they manage this, but Mangatangi has a population of 400 ish people. It's different than a city of a million.
I would expect increased public health messaging in those areas eg if you have symptoms stay home and get tested.
They're also doing a huge test drive in the area, which should pick up cases, and those people will then give their movements, which generates close contacts and locations of interest, and those people will isolate and so on.
But, it could already have been circulating in Hamilton for 2 days and there could be x number of cases? But, then you are always behind, when you pick up cases they have already passed it on?
As for contact tracing ahead of time, not sure what that would do to the tracers' workload or the impact on compliance. Or even what models they would use to predict it without swamping tracers and contacters with thousands more people who don't really have a realistic chance of being infected, and half of Auckland being traced for every positive case.
I was saying contract tracing cannot control Delta at Level 2, but your comment made me think about doing it 'ahead of time'. The government should have used something like the United States' Defense Production Act to force companies to become contract tracers.
I also think they should have had a large facility/facilities for isolation or used monitoring. The tracers could isolate what they call 'very close contacts' 2 days ahead.
Oh, I thought that's what you meant by "ahead of time" at 9.1.2.
I think they already use MIQ slots for isolation – like that was why they suspended MIQ during L4?
The thing about predicting close contacts is that most won't actually have been close contacts.The flipside is to up the community testing – saw this morning that everyone in an entire suburb is asked to get tested?
If it's spreading between unknown contacts at L2, there's trouble, sure. But if it is focused in known family or social groups, and we pretty well know the limits of that group, then should be ok even at 2.
Yes, but MIQ capacity is limited. They only quarantine cases and sometimes their household.
Yes, they have been doing that over the past week. I am not sure what the uptake is though. Most people do not stay just stay in their family and social groups in Level 2 though?
We-ell people are creatures of habit. Usual supermarket, usual workplace, usual home. Sure, you might pass someone in the supermarket, but they're far more likely to live a few blocks away than go to Wellington the next day.
So you have problems with individuals who have many, many contacts – salespeople, "essential" politicians trying to keep their jobs, that sort of thing. Then there are the mixing events, like rugby matches and rock gigs.
There's a lot of crossover with network theory – most people only have a few nodes of connection and those are pretty short distance edges. Then there are a few people with a lot of connections, and a few people with "long string" connections so that they have the usual flatmate/work connections but also have say a connect with someone in a different town – e.g. truckies.
So limiting the size of gatherings deals to the nodes with lots of connections, and things like contactless deliveries helps limit the likelihood of the long strings infecting unconnected subnetworks.
But it also illustrates why predictive isolation might be functionally impossible to implement: say I am a close contact of a colleague who went to a supermarket between 4 and 5 pm. So I go into isolation, even though my colleague probably hasn't infected me. But then I went to a supermarket between 7 and 8 pm. The might be an extra 400 people who need to be tracked down and isolated and tested, when their transmission node (me) probably didn't have it anyway. Then there are all my other colleagues as close contacts (and the people they were on the bus with being "close contacts once removed"), etc. The numbers pretty quickly become unmanagable.
Whereas we'd probably all be better off doing it as we are now.
sure, but there's a balance to be had between the negative social realities of lockdown and the necessity to get ahead of transmission.
Someone who understands it better than me can maybe talk about the R value of delta at the start of transmission in the community. I thought it was the low R value that enabled Auckland to go from L4 to L3 this week, the value being low because most people getting covid at the moment are already in isolation.
It's not like Hamilton is in L1. L2 does have measures in place to prevent spread of unknown covid in the community, that's the whole point of all of us staying in L2 until the transmission chains are broken.
I'm also guessing that the MoH/government wants to know more before putting Waikato into a higher level, they want to know what they are dealing with.
What do you classify as negative social impacts of lockdown? Yes, they cited the low R-value. However, some of the daily cases are infectious in the community and in Level 3 the chances of passing it on are higher so the R-value may increase.
The main NZ Covid modelling software can now predict likely areas of spread from very localised Stats NZ data, so I imagine they would have run that to set the size of this latest L4 pocket. Nothing is foolproof when humans are involved, however. Excellent contact tracing is essential.
I was very surprised the initial modelling predicted 50-100 and then 100-200 cases given it was Delta with an unknown source and many large exposure events.
However, he [Hendy] warns the outbreak will continue to grow.
"I would say a best case scenario would be something like what we saw in August last year – probably, higher than that. Maybe 200 [cases] might be the best case scenario but it could go as high as 1000 [cases]. That's still a possibility.
"But we will see later this week how alert level four is working and it's alert level four which will actually determine the number of cases in this cluster."
NZ moved Level 4 lockdown on midnight Tuesday 17th of August, so in all reality on Wednesday 18th of August. The date stamp on the linked piece is 23th of August.
Do you know how modelling works? Do you know what it can and cannot do? Do you know how it depends on boundary settings, initial parameterisation, and overall model assumptions? Do you know that useful predictive models include probabilities and confidence intervals?
Yes. I am at university and have done Statistics papers at Stage 1, 2 and 3. What I am saying is you should not take modelling as what is going to happen.
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Winston Peters’ much anticipated foreign policy speech last night was a work of two halves. Much of it was a standard “boilerplate” Foreign Ministry overview of the state of the world. There was some hardening up of rhetoric with talk of “benign” becoming “malign” and old truths giving way to ...
Graham Adams assesses the fallout of the Cass Review — The press release last Thursday from the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women and girls didn’t make the mainstream news in New Zealand but it really should have. The startling title of Reem Alsalem’s statement — “Implementation of ‘Cass ...
This open-for-business, under-new-management cliché-pockmarked government of Christopher Luxon is not the thing of beauty he imagines it to be. It is not the powerful expression of the will of the people that he asserts it to be. It is not a soaring eagle, it is a malodorous vulture. This newest poll should make ...
The latest labour market statistics, showing a rise in unemployment. There are now 134,000 unemployed - 14,000 more than when the National government took office. Which is I guess what happens when the Reserve Bank causes a recession in an effort to Keep Wages Low. The previous government saw a ...
Three opinion polls have been released in the last two days, all showing that the new government is failing to hold their popular support. The usual honeymoon experienced during the first year of a first term government is entirely absent. The political mood is still gloomy and discontented, mainly due ...
National's Finance Minister once met a poor person.A scornful interview with National's finance guru who knows next to nothing about economics or people.There might have been something a bit familiar if that was the headline I’d gone with today. It would of course have been in tribute to the article ...
Rob MacCulloch writes – Throughout the pandemic, the new Vice-Chancellor-of-Otago-University-on-$629,000 per annum-Can-you-believe-it-and-Former-Finance-Minister Grant Robertson repeated the mantra over and over that he saved “lives and livelihoods”.As we update how this claim is faring over the course of time, the facts are increasingly speaking differently. NZ ...
Chris Trotter writes – IT’S A COMMONPLACE of political speeches, especially those delivered in acknowledgement of electoral victory: “We’ll govern for all New Zealanders.” On the face of it, the pledge is a strange one. Why would any political leader govern in ways that advantaged the huge ...
Bryce Edwards writes – The list of former National Party Ministers being given plum and important roles got longer this week with the appointment of former Deputy Prime Minister Paula Bennett as the chair of Pharmac. The Christopher Luxon-led Government has now made key appointments to Bill ...
TL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy at 10:06am on Wednesday, May 1:The Lead: Business confidence fell across the board in April, falling in some areas to levels last seen during the lockdowns because of a collapse in ...
Over the past 36 hours, Christopher Luxon has been dong his best to portray the centre-right’s plummeting poll numbers as a mark of virtue. Allegedly, the negative verdicts are the result of hard economic times, and of a government bravely set out on a perilous rescue mission from which not ...
Auckland Transport have started rolling out new HOP card readers around the network and over the next three months, all of them on buses, at train stations and ferry wharves will be replaced. The change itself is not that remarkable, with the new readers looking similar to what is already ...
Completed reads for April: The Difference Engine, by William Gibson and Bruce Sterling Carnival of Saints, by George Herman The Snow Spider, by Jenny Nimmo Emlyn’s Moon, by Jenny Nimmo The Chestnut Soldier, by Jenny Nimmo Death Comes As the End, by Agatha Christie Lord of the Flies, by ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
Have a story to share about St Paul’s, but today just picturesPopular novels written at this desk by a young man who managed to bootstrap himself out of father’s imprisonment and his own young life in a workhouse Read more ...
The list of former National Party Ministers being given plum and important roles got longer this week with the appointment of former Deputy Prime Minister Paula Bennett as the chair of Pharmac. The Christopher Luxon-led Government has now made key appointments to Bill English, Simon Bridges, Steven Joyce, Roger Sowry, ...
Newsroom has a story today about National's (fortunately failed) effort to disestablish the newly-created Inspector-General of Defence. The creation of this agency was the key recommendation of the Inquiry into Operation Burnham, and a vital means of restoring credibility and social licence to an agency which had been caught lying ...
Holding On To The Present:The moment a political movement arises that attacks the whole idea of social progress, and announces its intention to wind back the hands of History’s clock, then democracy, along with its unwritten rules, is in mortal danger.IT’S A COMMONPLACE of political speeches, especially those delivered in ...
Stuck In The Middle With You:As Christopher Luxon feels the hot breath of Act’s and NZ First’s extremists on the back of his neck and, as he reckons with the damage their policies are already inflicting upon a country he’s described as “fragile”, is there not some merit in reaching out ...
The unpopular coalition government is currently rushing to repeal section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act. The clause is Oranga Tamariki's Treaty clause, and was inserted after its systematic stealing of Māori children became a public scandal and resulted in physical resistance to further abductions. The clause created clear obligations ...
Buzz from the Beehive The government’s official website – which Point of Order monitors daily – not for the first time has nothing much to say today about political happenings that are grabbing media headlines. It makes no mention of the latest 1News-Verian poll, for example. This shows National down ...
It Takes A Train To Cry:Surely, there is nothing lonelier in all this world than the long wail of a distant steam locomotive on a cold Winter’s night.AS A CHILD, I would lie awake in my grandfather’s house and listen to the traffic. The big wooden house was only a ...
Packing A Punch: The election of the present government, including in its ranks politicians dedicated to reasserting the rights of the legislature in shaping and determining the future of Māori and Pakeha in New Zealand, should have alerted the judiciary – including its anomalous appendage, the Waitangi Tribunal – that its ...
Dead Woman Walking: New Zealand’s media industry had been moving steadily towards disaster for all the years Melissa Lee had been National’s media and communications policy spokesperson, and yet, when the crisis finally broke, on her watch, she had nothing intelligent to offer. Christopher Luxon is a patient man - but he’s not ...
Chris Trotter writes – New Zealand politics is remarkably easy-going: dangerously so, one might even say. With the notable exception of John Key’s flat ruling-out of the NZ First Party in 2008, all parties capable of clearing MMP’s five-percent threshold, or winning one or more electorate seats, tend ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Polling shows that Wellington Mayor Tory Whanau has the lowest approval rating of any mayor in the country. Siting at -12 per cent, the proportion of constituents who disapprove of her performance outweighs those who give her the thumbs up. This negative rating is ...
Luxon will no doubt put a brave face on it, but there is no escaping the pressure this latest poll will put on him and the government. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political ...
This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler In the wake of any unusual weather event, someone inevitably asks, “Did climate change cause this?” In the most literal sense, that answer is almost always no. Climate change is never the sole cause of hurricanes, heat waves, droughts, or ...
Something odd happened yesterday, and I’d love to know if there’s more to it. If there was something which preempted what happened, or if it was simply a throwaway line in response to a journalist.Yesterday David Seymour was asked at a press conference what the process would be if the ...
Hi,From time to time, I want to bring Webworm into the real world. We did it last year with the Jurassic Park event in New Zealand — which was a lot of fun!And so on Saturday May 11th, in Los Angeles, I am hosting a lil’ Webworm pop-up! I’ve been ...
Education Minister Erica Standford yesterday unveiled a fundamental reform of the way our school pupils are taught. She would not exactly say so, but she is all but dismantling the so-called “inquiry” “feel good” method of teaching, which has ruled in our classrooms since a major review of the New ...
Exactly where are we seriously going with this government and its policies? That is, apart from following what may as well be a Truss-Lite approach on the purported economic “plan“, and Victorian-era regression when it comes to social policy.Oh it’ll work this time of course, we’re basically assured, “the ...
Hey Uncle Dave, When the Poms joined the EEC, I wasn't one of those defeatists who said, Well, that’s it for the dairy job. And I was right, eh? The Chinese can’t get enough of our milk powder and eventually, the Poms came to their senses and backed up the ute ...
Polling shows that Wellington Mayor Tory Whanau has the lowest approval rating of any mayor in the country. Siting at -12 per cent, the proportion of constituents who disapprove of her performance outweighs those who give her the thumbs up. This negative rating is higher than for any other mayor ...
Buzz from the Beehive Pharmac has been given a financial transfusion and a new chair to oversee its spending in the pharmaceutical business. Associate Health Minister David Seymour described the funding for Pharmac as “its largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff”. ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Many criticisms are being made of the Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill, including by this writer. But as with everything in politics, every story has two sides, and both deserve attention. It’s important to understand what the Government is trying to achieve and its ...
TL;DR: Here’s my top 10 ‘pick ‘n’ mix of links to news, analysis and opinion articles as of 10:10am on Monday, April 29:Scoop: The children's ward at Rotorua Hospital will be missing a third of its beds as winter hits because Te Whatu Ora halted an upgrade partway through to ...
span class=”dropcap”>As hideous as David Seymour can be, it is worth keeping in mind occasionally that there are even worse political figures (and regimes) out there. Iran for instance, is about to execute the country’s leading hip hop musician Toomaj Salehi, for writing and performing raps that “corrupt” the nation’s ...
Yesterday marked 10 years since the first electric train carried passengers in Auckland so it’s a good time to look back at it and the impact it has had. A brief history The first proposals for rail electrification in Auckland came in the 1920’s alongside the plans for earlier ...
Right now, in Aotearoa-NZ, our ‘animal spirits’ are darkening towards a winter of discontent, thanks at least partly to a chorus of negative comments and actions from the Government Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on ...
You make people evil to punish the paststuck inside a sequel with a rotating castThe following photos haven’t been generated with AI, or modified in any way. They are flesh and blood, human beings. On the left is Galatea Young, a young mum, and her daughter Fiadh who has Angelman ...
The Government is again adding to New Zealand’s growing unemployment, this time cutting jobs at the agencies responsible for urban development and growing much needed housing stock. ...
With Minister Karen Chhour indicating in the House today that she either doesn’t know or care about the frontline cuts she’s making to Oranga Tamariki, we risk seeing more and more of our children falling through the cracks. ...
The Labour Party is saddened to learn of the death of Sir Robert Martin, a globally renowned disability advocate who led the way for disability rights both in New Zealand and internationally. ...
Labour is calling for the Government to urgently rethink its coalition commitment to restart live animal exports, Labour animal welfare spokesperson Rachel Boyack said. ...
Today’s Financial Stability Report has once again highlighted that poverty and deep inequality are political choices - and this Government is choosing to make them worse. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to do more for our households in most need as unemployment rises and the cost of living crisis endures. ...
Unemployment is on the rise and it’s only going to get worse under this Government, Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said. Stats NZ figures show the unemployment rate grew to 4.3 percent in the March quarter from 4 percent in the December quarter. “This is the second rise in unemployment ...
The New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...
The National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...
This afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...
Te Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...
Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...
Tonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
The Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...
Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...
The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...
Cuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
More essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...
Te Pāti Māori is disgusted at the confirmation that hundreds are set to lose their jobs at Oranga Tamariki, and the disestablishment of the Treaty Response Unit. “This act of absolute carelessness and out of touch decision making is committing tamariki to state abuse.” Said Te Pāti Māori Oranga Tamariki ...
The Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...
Cancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...
A laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...
Thank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...
The Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...
The coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...
Structured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...
The rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...
The Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...
New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...
Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...
From today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...
People with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...
Kiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...
There are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...
The return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...
The coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...
The Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...
The Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay heads overseas today for high-level trade talks in the Gulf region, and a key OECD meeting in Paris. Mr McClay will travel to Riyadh to meet with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). “New Zealand’s goods and services exports to the Gulf region ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford has outlined six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system that sets Kiwi kids up for future success. “I’m putting ambition, achievement and outcomes at the heart of our education system. I want every child to be inspired and engaged in their learning so they ...
The new NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) App is a secure ‘one stop shop’ to provide the services drivers need, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Digitising Government Minister Judith Collins say. “The NZTA App will enable an easier way for Kiwis to pay for Vehicle Registration and Road User Charges (RUC). ...
Whānau with tamariki growing up in emergency housing motels will be prioritised for social housing starting this week, says Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka. “Giving these whānau a better opportunity to build healthy stable lives for themselves and future generations is an essential part of the Government’s goal of reducing ...
Racing Minister Winston Peters has paid tribute to an icon of the industry with the recent passing of Dave O’Sullivan (OBE). “Our sympathies are with the O’Sullivan family with the sad news of Dave O’Sullivan’s recent passing,” Mr Peters says. “His contribution to racing, initially as a jockey and then ...
Assalaamu alaikum, greetings to you all. Eid Mubarak, everyone! I want to extend my warmest wishes to you and everyone celebrating this joyous occasion. It is a pleasure to be here. I have enjoyed Eid celebrations at Parliament before, but this is my first time joining you as the Minister ...
Associate Health Minister David Seymour has announced Pharmac’s largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff. “Access to medicines is a crucial part of many Kiwis’ lives. We’ve committed to a budget allocation of $1.774 billion over four years so Kiwis are ...
Hon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...
Hundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says. “Every day, ...
Regional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges. “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...
Ambassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service. It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...
Distinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...
Mai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia. Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...
Paul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...
Recreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...
The coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...
Overseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...
By Stephen Wright and Stefan Armbruster of BenarNews Fiji’s ranking in a global press freedom index has jumped into the top tier of countries with free or mostly free media after its government last year repealed a draconian law that threatened journalists with prison for doing their jobs. Fiji’s improvement ...
We might be in Invercargill but all anyone can talk about is Gore. Specifically, Salford Street. That’s where three-year-old Lachlan Jones lived, south of the centre of town, between the A&P Showgrounds and the Mataura River. Roughly 1.2 km away from the single level home he lived in with his ...
MONDAY I lined up the latest round of civil servants from city hall against the wall, and signalled for the firing squad to drop their rifles. I stepped up onto a wooden crate to look at the office workers in the eye. But that didn’t feel right, so I found ...
Keen hiker and second-year MSc student Liam Hewson wears two hats when he’s in the great outdoors. “The scientist in me appreciates nature and goes, ‘Oh, there’s that thing and there’s another thing,’ but then the tramper and the outdoorsy person in me thinks, ‘Cool bush.’” Born and bred in ...
After a long and illustrious career as a goal kicker, Dan Carter’s favourite way to unwind is… kicking goals. Why can’t he get enough of it? And what it’s like to watch him do it for an hour straight? A semicircle of people wielding cameras and phones has formed in ...
Dame Susan Devoy takes us through her life in television, including late night ER debriefs, her proudest CTI moment and the show she watches in secret. Quite aside from her four world champion squash titles, Dame Susan Devoy will likely go down in history as one of the best Celebrity ...
Hera Lindsay Bird reveals the best places in Ōtepoti to score more for your apocalypse-prep book hoard.Sometimes I get the feeling I’ve been killed in a car crash, and this second half of my life is just the brain unspooling itself, like one of those episodes of a hospital ...
ThreeNow’s new murder mystery series takes us on a dark, damp journey into the Australian wilderness.This is an excerpt from our weekly pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here. High Country is ThreeNow’s new Australian eight-part crime drama, set in a remote part of the Victorian highlands. It tells ...
Introducing a new way to read The Spinoff every weekend. After nearly 10 years of being an online magazine, we’re finally embracing the weekend liftout. Despite our best efforts to convince you otherwise, writers and editors at The Spinoff don’t work weekend. It is through the sheer power of technology ...
Tip one: let yourself be nurtured by this big old man. Tip two: don’t ask him to adopt you. So, you’ve arrived at your first session with a new therapist. He tells you to make yourself comfortable and you opt for the tweed armchair, hoping it makes you look like ...
I didn’t know books could open you back up; that there were books that stayed with you, where reading was like a chemical event. I knew nothing.The Sunday Essay is made possible thanks to the support of Creative New Zealand.Not too long ago, I was listening to the American ...
Former Olympic swimmer James Magnussen has already started training for the Enhanced games, though says he won’t start taking performance enhancing substances until about nine months out from the competition. The Australian world champion was the first athlete to be announced by Enhanced, but he says the organisation has had ...
Everyone thinks he’s dead. Every day they expect his body to be washed up along the coast. Most likely up Karitane way, the way the tide’s running. But nobody’ll be too surprised if his body’s never found. Even in death he wouldn’t have wished for such attention. He would have ...
Council members voted 21 to 4 in favour of Ahluwalia returning to the Laucala campus following a much-awaited meeting in Vanuatu this week. It comes as USP and its two unions — the Association of the University of the South Pacific Staff (AUSPS) and the Administration and Support Staff Union ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicola Henry, Professor & Australian Research Council Future Fellow, Social and Global Studies Centre, RMIT University Shutterstock Following an emergency meeting of the National Cabinet this week, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced a raft of measures to tackle the problem ...
Analysis - A poll showing the opposition is more popular than the government raises questions, politicians go through their 'trial by pay rise' and a Green MP loses her cool in the debating chamber. ...
The entire stretch of Tokomaru Bay on the East Coast will be subject to a joint customary marine title for two hapū, and extending up to four miles out to sea. A High Court judge has found the two groups, who during the case settled a dispute over boundaries for ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Hall, Lecturer, Media & Cultural Studies, Edith Cowan University A longstanding feud between TikTok and Universal Music Group seems to have finally reached an end, with both parties signing a deal that will see Universal-backed music returned to the social media ...
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Just saw this on TV1:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fhsay1plEfg
Cute & clever
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/451909/live-the-pm-on-cabinet-s-alert-level-decision
As a "rule breaker" I can go on breaking the rules – PLAYING MY PART.
So, a level 3+, but not quite 4, that gives just enough wriggle room for Mr and Mrs Ladidah Fuckwit to bolt to a holiday home before level 4 resumes? But with the possibility that Mr and/or Mrs Ladidah Fuckwit have packed the virus along with their carry bag or suitcase?
Easy enough to see how this might end somewhat "less than well".
Mr. and Mrs. LF are only allowed take-aways. No holidays Bill. Good to see you back.
Aye well, 'the rules' are one thing, but then there are the likes of students flying out of Auckland to the South Island on level 4 (still beyond me why there were any fcken domestic passenger flights out of Auckland). Peeps in private chartered planes and sons of judges running here and there at level 4.
And now …?
But still. As long as huge numbers of 'not very vulnerable' people get vaccinated with these leaky vaccines and drive the evolution of the virus such that erstwhile somewhat protected people are that much less protected. And as long as society is successfully encouraged to slate the cause for any rise in seriously ill peeps back to the dirty unvaccinated and vilify them accordingly…
Long time no see and haere mai.
The LaDiDahs ain't moving a muscle until we can change our freaking flights.
Soon as we can we will be straight to Dunedin to sort out mother-in-law's transition to rest home hospital care at Yvette Williams. Terrifying separation.
Sympathies.
My ma passed away from cancer last April, after I had to help move her in to a nearby Rest Home & Hospital when she became too frail & unable to look after herself at home, & needed specialist trained end-of-life nursing care I couldn’t provide.
Moved her in Feb 2020, then L4 lockdown arrived for the whole motu. I was unable to visit her. We spoke on the phone for as long as she could manage it, but she passed away while still in L4.
I was fortunately phoned by a male nurse one Friday to say in his estimation she would go any day, & I could come up, masked, & visit with her for 10 minutes. She was by then unable to speak. Died two days later. The same nurse rang me the minute she passed away, & I was allowed to go up to her room & say good-bye, for which I was very grateful.
Her funeral (cremation) was completely no frills, with no attendees. Still in L4.
I was fortunate that even at 94 she’d been sharp as a knife & all her affairs were completely in order. It made executing her will & finalising all other matters very easy, & gave me the satisfaction of knowing that I’d carried out all her wishes & instructions to the letter. She would be proud of me, I know, and that’s what counted the most!
Hope when you do get to Dunners that all goes well for your wife’s mum, Ad.
OMG that is freaking terrible Gezza.
Well done for staying organised to the end.
Cheers for the best wishes. Will report back.
Ma was my mother-in-law, Ad.
When I married my late wife, an only child, I had the good fortune to pick up an extra set of parents. They treated me like their son. It was easy to reciprocate their care & affection.
I promised my wife that if anything happened to her, I’d stay in Tawa & look after them. My mum & dad approved. I had other siblings who could look to their welfare.
And it was some consolation, when ma passed away, that I wasn’t the only one in that situation.
There were many of us who shared that stressful time. For some reason, knowing that helped, somehow.
Aye.
Aye. The nation's sleeves probably fair bulge with self-justifying laudable exceptions that would profess to be all about the humanity (and the ability to afford same).
Good that Auckland region will go down to L3, but the rest of the nation remains in L2 with the exception of the Mangatangi community, which will be in a quasi-L4 environment for 5 days.
Steady as she goes, with the effective but crude tools; staying the same course and not even moving the deckchairs.
Let's keep on jabbing!
“Let’s keep on jabbing”
Speaking of which – a bit late coming to the party, but good to see nevertheless. Let’s hope it helps:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/te-manu-korihi/451905/maori-king-and-other-leaders-endorse-pfizer-vaccine
Let's keep on jabbing!
Why jab? Serious question that. Unless you are vulnerable, all you will be doing is 'forcing' the evolution of the virus in a direction that evades vaccination.
There's a medical term for the phenomenon, but it escapes me at the moment.
Anyway. The vaccines are leaky. And given that fact, the best way to endanger vulnerable people is to insist that only mutations capable of sidestepping vaccinations thrive. I believe it's one reason why flu jabs (also leaky) are administered before the flu season and not rolled out to all and sundry during flu's seasonal outbreaks.
That's very true… some here are very intolerante to that message.
We must mandate vaccination. \sarc
The term you’re looking for is selection pressure.
The older you are, the more ‘vulnerable’ you are; you don’t become ‘vulnerable’ overnight the day you turn 65 or whatever age you pick from the Excel stats tables that suits the narrative.
No vaccine is 100% effective and immune responses tend to drop over time, some slower than others. This is normal.
There will be newer (generations of) vaccines for Covid-19, quite possibly targeting more than one (dominant) strain each year.
Indeed, better to vaccine before the infectious season is upon us, which is what we’re doing now thanks to the artificial ‘pre-season’ conditions stemming from the elimination strategy. Problem is that evolution takes place virtually unabated in the rest of the world.
The mutation rate of Covid-19 is relatively (s)low.
As long as NZ sticks to the proven elimination strategy very few will catch Covid-19, even fewer will become seriously ill, and only rarely will a patient succumb to it – 27 in over 18 months.
Meanwhile, get as many preventative measures in place, including building as much population immunity as possible against current variants, which in reality is Delta. It is the best we can do under these shitty circumstances, unless you have a better suggestion.
Vaccination is, however, not a silver bullet.
PS despite annual multi-strain flu vaccinations, each year quite a few die of the disease. However, measures aimed at Covid-19 seem to have influenced those numbers. Gives you food for thought, doesn’t it?
No vaccine is 100% effective …
That's true. The bit you're missing is "leaky". It is not generally the case that being vaccinated leaves you with around a 50/50 chance of being infected by a virus that will still replicate within you even though you're vaccinated and result in you being a spreader of infection.
There will be newer (generations of) vaccines for Covid-19, quite possibly targeting more than one (dominant) strain each year.
Maybe. And the development of a vaccine would generally take ten years or so. The fact we have a clutch of vaccines that we don't know the medium or long term risks of, should maybe be reason enough to pause for thought.
Indeed, better to vaccine before the infectious season is upon us, which is what we’re doing now thanks to the artificial ‘pre-season’ conditions stemming from the elimination strategy. Problem is that evolution takes place virtually unabated in the rest of the world.
It's a global pandemic. NZ's very low rates of infection doesn't mean that NZ is in some kind of "pre-flu season" situation. As you wrote, the virus is mutating all around us. That means we are slap bang in the high season.
The mutation rate of Covid-19 is relatively (s)low.
I'm not sure what you're basing that on. Regardless. There's an ever emerging list of VOIs VOCs (variations of interest and variations of concern). And since viruses replicate in 'silly numbers' and (to my point about mass vaccination exposing vulnerable sections of society) we are skewing the environment such that only mutations capable of avoiding the current leaky vaccinations spread and multiply…
A better move would be, as with flu, vaccinate the vulnerable, or those who consider themselves vulnerable. Do not create an environment, by vaccinating all and sundry, that decreases the already imperfect protection for the vulnerable amongst us.
For those who would not think themselves vulnerable, I guess attaining or maintaining a broadly healthy state wouldn't be a bad idea.
So a couple of things come up about this lockdown vs the first one, using ourworldindata stringency index and daily new case rolling 7 day average.
So Auckland spent about the same amount in level 4 this time as NZ did the first time around, but started this time with a lower number of cases.
This seems to have saved a few more people from being infected at the peak of the current outbreak (speed saves lives and illnesses!), but this outbreak is slightly wider at the ~20 per day mark. Which we probably all kinda knew.
So, factors that can affect the curve (off the top of my head):
I think the curve indicates that the middle and last possibilities are the main drivers for the shape of the curve, rather than delta being significantly more difficult to stamp out than covd mk1.
Anyone have any other ideas?
Based on what I've seen, people are less inclined to follow the 'rules' to the letter this time around… partly because there are less unknowns this time… ie we know outdoor transmission is rare so chatting in the garden, park, beach etc is very low risk. .. you can also add to that vaccination, once you've had a jab or two it's very clear the risks you face are very small so rather than have the mental health struggle, cabin fever etc you expand your bubble… you add those cohorts to non belivers it makes a significant number of people.
the vaxxed thinking they're all good is a concern. I saw this play out with people I knew in the US who once they were vaccinated started travelling. Seemed mad even then, but now it's clear that vaccinated people can still transmit, we need more emphasis on hand washing, masks, appropriate distancing.
Statistically unless you have significant comorbidities once you are double vaxxed an even single vaxxed you are 'all good' very hard to tell someone who has done their bit in getting vaxxed that actually you still have to maintain distance etc… as the vaxxed percentage grows lockdowns are going to become less and less politically feasible.
Basically from todays decision onwards I suspect things get alot harder for the govt… in that acceptance of returning to a level 4 lockdown isnt going to be there but at the same time our health system will not cope with an outbreak even amongst the 25 percent or so people who haven’t been vaxxed
Preprint from August,
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02261-8
Part of the problem here is that much of the discussion about vaccines last year didn't make it clear that the covid vaccine gives partial not full immunity.
What I'm hearing from the government is that going forward we will need all the tools. Vaccination, hygiene practices, periodic probably localised lockdowns. The vaccine on its own won't be enough even if we get to very high rates.
We're not going back to normal once everyone is vaccinated, we will have to create a new society. I don't think having to use multiple tools is a bad thing eg it's dropped the flu and cold rates too. I'd like to see us address poverty as a driver of respiratory illness, and also look at wellbeing more broadly. Lots of people I know (South Island) feel that there are benefits to lockdown beyond elimination of covid eg slowing down, time to reflect on what matters, better work/life balance. Obviously that's not been possible for everyone, and it's a perspective probably more outside of Auckland that's done the heavy lifting in the past year. But we don't need to be afraid of the uncertainty given we still have a very good public health response across the tools.
Thing is that hasnt really been the messaging… and its very clear from the stats and backed up but what we're told by govt that if double vaxxed your chances of getting seriously ill are extremely small so restrictions are going to be a hard sell. It seems at this point the best immunity comes from catching covid then having a single shot afterwards… and as Bill mentions above, leaky vaccines (as these are) come with their own potential issues.
Its going to be a long and difficult road and personally I feel that we haven't actually advanced our preparedness that much even though we bought ourselves alot of time with the first lockdown.
That belief is based on a few things, such as rushing builders into hospitals once we were in level 4 to commision more negative pressure rooms, running out of quarantine capacity very quickly, having to train more contact tracers mid out outbreak, nurses not fitted to N95 mask… all things we should have had ready to roll in the time we had… it's almost like there was great confidence that our border strategy would keep delta, imagine the fallout if it had arrived 8 weeks earlier before we had sufficient vaccine in the country…
Please, do tell us more. This is a major issue debated by experts and far from settled, AFAIK. However, nobody is actually arguing that one should deliberately catch Covid-19 first and then take a “single shot” (of which vaccine?) to build the “best immunity”. I look forward to being educated on this topic further.
The issue isn't only who gets ill, it's who passes covid on to others. Delta won't be the last variant, the current vaccines don't last that long. We are acting as if the vaccine is a silver bullet.
The government is between a rock and a hard place in terms of messaging. They have to balance hope with reality and uncertainty. No-one knows how this is going to play out, we're still in the novel part of the novel virus.
There are definitely holes in our covid response, some avoidable, some not. Each wave of pressure brings new learning and new adaptation. This is the world we live in, and even if covid passes, there will be future challenges and climate change means that everyone now lives an uncertain life. The more resiliency and adaptability we build now as a society, the better off we will be.
I like your thinking
The idea that’s slowly growing, in Government and then the seed is planted in the public, is that lockdowns will hopefully be a thing of the past, but this doesn’t necessarily rule out Level 3 measures.
Time will tell.
what's the current thinking on object transmission. Drinks at 2m on the drive might be fine until someone has to handle the wine glasses. Or is it all air and direct contact risk now?
Pretty sure I heard at least one of the TV station “Go To” virology experts say recently that surface transmission wasn’t really all that much of a concern these days. It’s airborne transmission that’s the primary vector.
Doesn’t mean the other usual experts agree with him. (Can’t remember who it was – a male though.)
We tend to be able to detect the more rare "elevator button" exposures simply because there are so few other connections and our contact tracing and genome sequencing are so on ball.
Try that in Texas, who the heck knows precisely who gave someone the covid.
But most hospo workers I've encountered are masked up and gloved/sanitisered up pretty well, so the contamination is minimal as long as you use sanitiser when using any eftpos keypads (if your cards aren't yet contactless).
When we were briefly in L4 in Welly this year, I noticed that the local supermarket staff didn’t seem to be assiduously wiping down all the trolley handles & wire cage tops after each use, as they were during L4 last year.
They were running a very clear system in 2020. You were only permitted to select a trolley from the disinfected trolley racks. Used trolleys went into a separate rack, further away from the doorkeepers, until they’d been sprayed & handles wiped down.
This last time, they were more into encouraging shoppers to use the gels & handsprays before selecting a trolley
Presumably then so long as you take the wine glasses inside and wash them, both your hands and the glasses are then free of the virus.
We could probably do with some reminders about not rubbing our eyes or touching our faces.
Well, a lot of that is covered by basic food hygiene in most places. Controls against rotovirus or what have you also work against coronavirus.
I suspect covid means a lot more small places are now actually wearing gloves as often as they should have been all along (years ago friend of mine overheard her new deli counter boss saying so many more disposable gloves were being used since friend started – she was using the gloves to spec, nobody else was lol).
I commented elsewhere that it seems like people down south are taking precautions more seriously since the Auckland/Wanaka couple thing. Good.
Re wine glasses, I was thinking about the flux of the fuzzy boundaries in different levels. Does socialising on the driveway with a 2m distance increase the spread of the virus or decrease it because it enables people to do the other, more important measures better and for longer (someone might have already said this).
Seems to be that biggest risks sit with indok3r areas with poor ventilation
I suppose what interests me is where the risks are lower and people get slack.
"Anyone have any other ideas?"
No, I think you are right. A more infectious virus just means that some types of interpersonal contact that would be relatively harmless with a less infectious pathogen, become more risky. Your lockdown therefore needs to limit contact somewhat more strictly to be as successful. But in the real world, this strictness has natural limits – it hits boundaries beyond which people will not or cannot comply. And those limits are not uniform across a population but are influenced by people's circumstances, knowledge, expectations, habits, etc.
Good to see some heat being put on at last. There has to be a deterrent. Their own community, now under L4 will be the judge. Hopefully the support, too.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-infected-prisoner-made-four-stops-before-arriving-at-bail-address/HSJ7MZBHHFZOHQ6YYYYIABSVJM/
That article is interesting raises a few questions though, ie if he caught it from the driver who was a family member do the live in the town he was bailed to or did they drive him from Auckland and they returned once he was dropped off… has the driver been tested? and where did they catch it from?
Then the accomodation was no longer available which reads like the family kicked him back out… you have to ask why… were unwelcome 'vistors' coming to the house? If thats the case there's going to be a sting in the tail… worrying really…
Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees! I picked it right! KFC from Wednesday morning in Auckland.
I get confused by the KFC reference. Takeaways is merely a means to largely deliver profit to corporate food barons.
Level 3 means nothing different to me and my family. We might be able to walk in a different place, but that is it.
some of us rely on takeaways for nutrition and meals.
Living alone, I’d probably soon expire without a good stock of frozen Tomorrow’s Meals. One soon gets sick of cooking & doing pots, pans & other dishes for one most of the time.
"Level 4 but with KFC " was the meme that was the sum total of national parties contribution to the fight against covid in the first lockdown
Sorry but your KFC got apprehended by the police and destroyed. 🚔😜
“Three senior staff have departed the National Party’s Parliamentary office in recent weeks as the party’s poll ratings have plummeted.
Digital director Francis Till, press secretary Julia Stewart, and head of data and insights Sophie Lloyd have all departed. All have years of experience in Parliament.
A comment on Till’s Instagram suggests he was dismissed rather than leaving the role voluntarily however.”
…
“Till declined to comment, but wrote on his Instagram that he had been dismissed, writing that he had drank from a “poisoned chalice” despite being warned not to.”
…
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300411266/national-party-three-senior-staffers-departing-judith-collins-office
… … … …
The Collins Drama continues to play out ….
Oh Gawd !
“National leader Judith Collins has admitted she made a mistake after she was caught on video over the weekend ordering icecream at the counter of a Queenstown café without wearing a mask.
The National leader, who has been quick to point out when others have run afoul of Covid-19 regulations, was joined by deputy leader Shane Reti and local MP Joseph Mooney – both of whom were also maskless – at Patagonia Chocolates on Saturday evening.”
…
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-judith-collins-filmed-without-mask-at-queenstown-business/Q4IFBI5SQ2B7UBUVRCIU3QRIPA/
… … … …
Would calling her a “big fat hypocrite” be, umm…just cruel, really, now?
Judith sure seems to have the Reverse Midas touch. 😬
Ice cream wouldn’t melt in her mouth.
So she kicks a storm up do get to Wellington because opposition is important, then fucks off to queenstown for icecream, unfucking believable.!!
look, this is essential work. It's why she left the people in Auckland to face L4 without her.
Shades of National's next full caucus meeting under Collins' command?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=V7NlFWh7Sz8
Dreadful grammar, but agree entirely with the sentiment 😀 👍🏼
Whoops ! Too many degrees of separation there.
That’s in relation to bwaghorn’s “unfucking believable.!!”
'Group 3 unvaxxed advised to stay home', Localized lockdown – Suppression?
Wouldn't people around Mangatangi have travelled into Hamilton for work? For elimination, shouldn't the whole of Waikato be in Level 4?
Experts were calling for Auckland to stay in Level 4.
People living in Mangatangi or having visited/worked there are being told to stay home. If there's any outward transmission, new cases will be picked up and managed as per normal. They've had a few days to do contact and location tracing of the known cases, and I would guess they're also looking forward in time to surrounding areas. I also assume we're further ahead of the curve than we were with the original Auckland case that set of this outbreak.
Not sure about that if one of the kids was at school while infectious last week its very possible.it could have been passed on again and with the very short incubation Delta has its very possible someone else has picked it up, become infectious between Thursday last week and todays announcement and travelled into Hamilton for example
But, if the virus is in Hamilton it will spread fast because they are only in Level 2? Isn't it basically impossible to contain Delta with contract tracing in Level 2?
You can't contract trace ahead of time though? I agree with the last part, the source appears to be one of the people who drove him to the bail address.
If delta cases turn up in Hamilton, it won't stay at L2.
I don't know how they manage this, but Mangatangi has a population of 400 ish people. It's different than a city of a million.
I would expect increased public health messaging in those areas eg if you have symptoms stay home and get tested.
They're also doing a huge test drive in the area, which should pick up cases, and those people will then give their movements, which generates close contacts and locations of interest, and those people will isolate and so on.
But, it could already have been circulating in Hamilton for 2 days and there could be x number of cases? But, then you are always behind, when you pick up cases they have already passed it on?
As for contact tracing ahead of time, not sure what that would do to the tracers' workload or the impact on compliance. Or even what models they would use to predict it without swamping tracers and contacters with thousands more people who don't really have a realistic chance of being infected, and half of Auckland being traced for every positive case.
I was saying contract tracing cannot control Delta at Level 2, but your comment made me think about doing it 'ahead of time'. The government should have used something like the United States' Defense Production Act to force companies to become contract tracers.
I also think they should have had a large facility/facilities for isolation or used monitoring. The tracers could isolate what they call 'very close contacts' 2 days ahead.
Oh, I thought that's what you meant by "ahead of time" at 9.1.2.
I think they already use MIQ slots for isolation – like that was why they suspended MIQ during L4?
The thing about predicting close contacts is that most won't actually have been close contacts.The flipside is to up the community testing – saw this morning that everyone in an entire suburb is asked to get tested?
If it's spreading between unknown contacts at L2, there's trouble, sure. But if it is focused in known family or social groups, and we pretty well know the limits of that group, then should be ok even at 2.
Yes, but MIQ capacity is limited. They only quarantine cases and sometimes their household.
Yes, they have been doing that over the past week. I am not sure what the uptake is though. Most people do not stay just stay in their family and social groups in Level 2 though?
We-ell people are creatures of habit. Usual supermarket, usual workplace, usual home. Sure, you might pass someone in the supermarket, but they're far more likely to live a few blocks away than go to Wellington the next day.
So you have problems with individuals who have many, many contacts – salespeople, "essential" politicians trying to keep their jobs, that sort of thing. Then there are the mixing events, like rugby matches and rock gigs.
There's a lot of crossover with network theory – most people only have a few nodes of connection and those are pretty short distance edges. Then there are a few people with a lot of connections, and a few people with "long string" connections so that they have the usual flatmate/work connections but also have say a connect with someone in a different town – e.g. truckies.
So limiting the size of gatherings deals to the nodes with lots of connections, and things like contactless deliveries helps limit the likelihood of the long strings infecting unconnected subnetworks.
But it also illustrates why predictive isolation might be functionally impossible to implement: say I am a close contact of a colleague who went to a supermarket between 4 and 5 pm. So I go into isolation, even though my colleague probably hasn't infected me. But then I went to a supermarket between 7 and 8 pm. The might be an extra 400 people who need to be tracked down and isolated and tested, when their transmission node (me) probably didn't have it anyway. Then there are all my other colleagues as close contacts (and the people they were on the bus with being "close contacts once removed"), etc. The numbers pretty quickly become unmanagable.
Whereas we'd probably all be better off doing it as we are now.
Sorry for my short reply to your detailed post. I was more referring to places like bars, restaurants, shops e.t.c.
sure, but there's a balance to be had between the negative social realities of lockdown and the necessity to get ahead of transmission.
Someone who understands it better than me can maybe talk about the R value of delta at the start of transmission in the community. I thought it was the low R value that enabled Auckland to go from L4 to L3 this week, the value being low because most people getting covid at the moment are already in isolation.
It's not like Hamilton is in L1. L2 does have measures in place to prevent spread of unknown covid in the community, that's the whole point of all of us staying in L2 until the transmission chains are broken.
I'm also guessing that the MoH/government wants to know more before putting Waikato into a higher level, they want to know what they are dealing with.
Distancing is only really followed in hospitality and I suspect masks are only being worn in shops and healthcare.
What do you classify as negative social impacts of lockdown? Yes, they cited the low R-value. However, some of the daily cases are infectious in the community and in Level 3 the chances of passing it on are higher so the R-value may increase.
The main NZ Covid modelling software can now predict likely areas of spread from very localised Stats NZ data, so I imagine they would have run that to set the size of this latest L4 pocket. Nothing is foolproof when humans are involved, however. Excellent contact tracing is essential.
I was very surprised the initial modelling predicted 50-100 and then 100-200 cases given it was Delta with an unknown source and many large exposure events.
Shaun Hendy said this on Monday 23 Aug:
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/08/covid-19-disease-modelling-expert-shaun-hendy-warns-nz-outbreak-could-grow-to-1000-cases.html
That was the 'worst-case scenario' a week into lockdown. What I was referring to was the predictions during the first week.
First week of what??
NZ moved Level 4 lockdown on midnight Tuesday 17th of August, so in all reality on Wednesday 18th of August. The date stamp on the linked piece is 23th of August.
Do you know how modelling works? Do you know what it can and cannot do? Do you know how it depends on boundary settings, initial parameterisation, and overall model assumptions? Do you know that useful predictive models include probabilities and confidence intervals?
Yes. I am at university and have done Statistics papers at Stage 1, 2 and 3. What I am saying is you should not take modelling as what is going to happen.
oh that is cool.
Living their best lives.
https://twitter.com/Jake_Hanrahan/status/1439304675514273800
In Indiana USA more people died in 2020 than were born, according to Nightly News (Sept 19).