Daily review 21/02/2022

28 comments on “Daily review 21/02/2022 ”

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1. Matiri 1

   21 February 2022 at 5:47 pm

   After the police operation this morning with the concrete barriers, I am feeling a lot more positive that the protest action will fail, especially as our politicians of all stripes are much more visible today. Feeling the positive vibe too?
   • satty 1.1

     21 February 2022 at 6:31 pm

     Interesting strategy by the Police… my first thought was they try to "cage" them a little, put some pressure on them… this could lead to some "cabin fever" and "splitter-groups". Next couple of days will be interesting.

     The protesters need good leadership now, otherwise the protest could easily break down.

     The Police's plan is probably to keep them contained in the given area now… more protesters would have to squeeze into the given area.
     • Blazer 1.1.1

       21 February 2022 at 9:06 pm

       I think the Police should flour bomb the protestors…with organic,wholegrain …flour of..course.
2. Dennis Frank 2

   21 February 2022 at 6:57 pm

   Informative graphs from the MoH on display here: https://www.newsroom.co.nz/tracking-omicron-in-new-zealand-latest-charts-and-data

   The two that grabbed my attention are called Weekly cases and hospitalisations by vaccination status.

   There are three weekly case trend lines with near-identical trajectories: no doses, two doses, and not eligible. So the scientific evidence proves that vaccination makes no difference to the likelihood of infection. Dunno why some citizens are classified as not eligible for vaccination! Am I misinterpreting that somehow??

   Hospitalisations have dropped dramatically since the new year – I guess that's due to delta losing potency. Omicron may trend the numbers upward again.
   • Drowsy M. Kram 2.1

     21 February 2022 at 7:23 pm

     Edit – not sure. The first (left) graph may be number of cases per 100,000 people total. Number of hospitalisations per 100 unvaccinated cases has dropped and the trend line is closing in on single and doubled-vaccinated numbers.

     Unvaccinated cases are currenetly at least five times (4.59 / 0.85) more likely to be hospitalised compared to double-vaccinated cases.
   • Belladonna 2.2

     21 February 2022 at 7:42 pm

     Looks to me as though the ‘not yet eligible’ are the people who’ve had 2nd shot more recently than 3 months.

     And/or children under 5 (for whom there is no vaccine as yet)
     • Dennis Frank 2.2.1

       21 February 2022 at 7:53 pm

       Oh, that seems like a good guess. If so, why omit the elementary courtesy of informing the viewer? But it does reinforce my point about vaccination not preventing infection.
   • Drowsy M. Kram 2.3

     21 February 2022 at 7:47 pm

     More data here Dennis, including graphs (for unvaccinated, partially vaccinated and fully vaccinated) of new cases and new hospitalisations “per 100,000 of population segment” – too much for me.

     https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/450874/covid-19-data-visualisations-nz-in-numbers
     • Dennis Frank 2.3.1

       21 February 2022 at 8:02 pm

       Good one. Re the graph of Estimated variant prevalence in New Zealand, that's an excellent display of the relative influence – showing the dramatic reduction in delta over the end of last year into the new year, plus the differential rise of the two omicron strains.

       Then further down theres's the hospitalisation breakdown of numbers, showing that the unvaccinated are arriving in hospital at four times the rate of either the partially or fully-vaxed groups. That one proves that vaccination does reduce the serious impact of infection dramatically!
   • Herodotus 2.4

     21 February 2022 at 7:49 pm

     With the delay finalising test results, I cannot find anywhere. Of todays cases when were have test. My untrained suspicion is that todays cases were tested end of last week, Thursday-Friday ??
   • Poission 2.5

     21 February 2022 at 8:07 pm

     MOH classifies those under 12 as ineligible (even though they may have had shot).

     Fully vaccinated can mean 2 or 3 (its an arbitrary axiom)

     The reality is you only need the absolute numbers to determine risk,ie The potential (the full population of NZ) and the boosted who will have the least risk.

     This shows that least risk is available in 42% of the population and 58% are at risk.

     https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/7314130/?utm_source=showcase&utm_campaign=visualisation/7314130

     The fly in the ointment is the decay rate in the efficacy of the vaccines,ie there is only a limited time when you are reasonably protected.

     The immunity with effectiveness decreasing from 69% after the booster (2-4 weeks) to 49% after 10 weeks for BA1 and from 74% after (2-4 weeks) to 46 % after 10 weeks for BA2.

     https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1054071/vaccine-surveillance-report-week-6.pdf
3. joe90 3

   21 February 2022 at 7:14 pm

   Somehow I doubt the courts will roll over when the tech bros tell them to fuck off.

   https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1495038292773019655
4. Stan 4

   21 February 2022 at 7:17 pm

   Hi, Dennis

   Yes you have misinterpreted this.

   The rates you mention are TOTAL rates. Let's say that there are 5 million vaccinated, 1 million unvaccinated, yet each group has the same number of hospitalisations. This is an estimate for the sake of clarifying this.

   This means that 5 times as many unvaccinated people are in hospital compared to vaccinated.

   Ie vaccination seems to be preventing hospital admission.

   I think a certain ACT leader is also trying to wilfully misinterpret the numbers to confirm a personal belief. Or needs some help with year 5 maths.
   • Dennis Frank 4.1

     21 February 2022 at 7:46 pm

     Thanks for trying Stan, but I still don't get the picture. I'm a physics grad & interpreting science graphs is something I was trained extensively in. That said I'm elderly & diffident enough to wonder why these graphs paint a different picture in my mind to govt pr spiel!

     Just to clarify, though, I get your first point re ratio (I think) but it just makes me wonder at the ethics of putting a misrepresentational graph online. A public servant ought not to be deliberately trying to mislead the public. Are they accidentally doing so out of incompetence rather than unethical conduct – more likely, I guess…
     • Koff 4.1.1

       21 February 2022 at 7:53 pm

       Stan is right, Dennis. Unfortunately, none of the NZ stats offered up in graphic detail by the various media tell you how unvaccinated vs vaccinated fare when it comes to infection and hospitalisation without doing the maths. I just checked RNZ's stats and came to the same calculation as Stan. The other missing details are whether 'fully vaccinated' means doubled jabbed only or with booster. I am assuming it means only double jabbed, so the difference between the fate of unvaccinated and boostered people is probably much wider. I did see a very good comparison released by NSW Health recently which showed the differences without having to get a calculator out, so will link to it here if I can find it!
       • Dennis Frank 4.1.1.1

         21 February 2022 at 8:07 pm

         Yes I just commented on those that DMK linked to above and the one on hospitalisation clarifies the point you & Stan agree on, so I can now agree with both of you about that. Thanks for explaining it.
         • Nic the NZer 4.1.1.1.1

           21 February 2022 at 9:36 pm

           Can you explain it to me? I convinced myself Stan and Koff were correct, but then had to back track. I think you were right the first time, its a rate per 100,000K of each category.
           • Dennis Frank 4.1.1.1.1.1

             21 February 2022 at 10:04 pm

             No I can't explain whatever finagling the health dept graph creator(s) did with the maths, sorry Nic. I was just agreeing with Stan (& Koff) re this meaning of the stats:

             This means that 5 times as many unvaccinated people are in hospital compared to vaccinated.

             Ie vaccination seems to be preventing hospital admission.

             Although in the graph DMK linked to that made it more obvious the ratio seemed closer to 4 times than 5.

             There's a broader point around graphical misrepresentation that I referred to in passing. Nowadays users seem to feel free to evade accuracy in labelling of axes routinely, for instance. I grew up in a get it right culture. Now we get make it up as you go along shit constantly…
             • Nic the NZer …

               21 February 2022 at 10:48 pm

               Hmmm. I think you had it right the first time.

               The reason we might say the unvaccinated are 5 times as likely to be hospitalised is due to the right most data points, 4.59 (unvaccinated) vs 0.85 (vaccinated), a multiple of 5.4x.

               Otherwise I think the charts are basically correctly converting each category into a rate (of some kind). You are right the rates are similar for each category for infection, but not really for hospitalisation. I also think 4.1.1.2 is correctly suggesting some reasons this may be miss-leading even so.

               Stans, original hypothetical was the rates being similar but then ends with 5x as many hospitalisations among unvaccinated. This is clearly incorrect as the chart "Vaccination status of population and 7 day rolling average of new cases and hospitalisations" shows. There are about 4x as many fully vaccinated cases in hospital in total for the last 7 days.
       • Nic the NZer 4.1.1.2

         21 February 2022 at 8:58 pm

         I don't think this is correct Stan and Koff.

         The chart "Vaccination status of population and 7 day rolling average of new cases and hospitalisations" from the RNZ link shows at the tail of the graph that the new cases are closely in proportion to the vaccination status.

         Then in the chart "Vaccination status of new cases per 100,000 of population segment" we find at the end that the proportions come out at about 33% & 34% percent for fully vaccinated and partially vaccinated with unvaccinated being only 18%. This seems to indicate that the second chart has been adjusted to per 100,000 population in each category.

         I think there are a few other things going on with this which are important. First (as suggested) boosted should probably be another category, as should vaccinated under 12s (maybe they are counted as vaccinated already). The other thing is you really need to consider effects in age categories. Unfortunately getting older is somewhat more significant than being vaccinated for virus impacts. This typically makes the total rates a poor estimate of the impacts in each age category. Basically older groups of people are getting worse outcomes, even though more are vaccinated, though in their age category the outcomes are much better compared to other categories. Probably in NZ this kind of detailed analysis would create some quite small categories however.
5. Muttonbird 5

   21 February 2022 at 8:36 pm

   That Luxon speech was a shocker.

   People don't want more platitudes from the podium.

   Says the suit delivering platitudes from a podium.

   The Prime Minister talks about the team of five million, but actually she leads the most divisive Government in recent memory.

   Renters versus landlords. Business owners versus workers. Farmers versus cities. Kiwis at home versus those stuck abroad.

   Finally, a fucking contest!

   https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/02/christopher-luxon-s-full-a-divided-society-speech-as-protests-continue-at-parliament.html

   And what's with the Presidential thing to camera? Delusions of grandeur…
   • Blazer 5.1

     21 February 2022 at 9:04 pm

     Are Crosby/Textor back in business.?
   • Dennis Frank 5.2

     21 February 2022 at 10:45 pm

     I liked his freudian slip:

     That's my vision for New Zealand – a society of opportunity.

     Shoulda joined the Opportunities Party then eh?

     The truth lies somewhere in the middle.

     So it's no longer out there? No, it's located between the left & right. Bull's eye.

     We must chart a path back to that middle ground that unites us.

     True, unity lies on the middle way. Trouble is, democracy was designed to divide. He blames Labour for being divisive but the game was designed to be binary. Unrealistic to blame them for the rules.

     This hasn't been helped by a Prime Minister who is missing in action

     What action? I saw her interviewed on both breakfast tv shows this morning. The guy obviously can't keep up with events.

     there are frustrations shared by law-abiding and well-intentioned people up and down the country about the Government's approach to COVID and its lack of a plan.

     The plan is called the traffic light system. It operates until the omicron wave passes & case numbers drop sufficiently to discontinue it. If I can describe it in two lines even Nat-voting thickos ought to be able to get the picture.

     there seems no pathway out of ever more restrictions, rules and controls which are driving so much hurt and anger.

     Only if you don't look across the Tasman. Oz govt freed its citizens today. They went up & down the omicron infection peak 6 weeks ahead of us by sacrificing their most vulnerable & unlucky. The PM finally foreshadowed this freedom for us this morning. Luxon didn't notice. Dunno why it took her so long though.

     There is a third way

     Don't tell that to the binary majority – you'll just confuse them. Democracy would have to incorporate this third option structurally before they would be able to start believing it's real.

     Then he described a sound basis for a different management:

     The mandates were designed for a world in which Delta was the dominant strain. But Omicron has changed the game.

     Under our current system, vaccinated people can go to a café; the unvaccinated can't. Vaccinated people can go to the gym; the unvaccinated can't. Vaccinated people can get a haircut; the unvaccinated can't. This made sense when vaccination had a big effect on transmission. But Omicron is just so infectious and busts through vaccination, including boosters.

     Vaccination is still definitely worth it for individuals – it makes us far less likely to get seriously ill – but when vaccinated people can get Omicron and spread it, why are we limiting venues to just vaccinated people? The public health rationale for mandates is much less than it was just a few months ago.

     So he scores a valid point there. Didn't need to beat all around the bush before getting to it.
     • Patricia Bremner 5.2.1

       22 February 2022 at 12:59 am

       Denis best laugh out loud for ages Thanks!! This commentary is also a 'Bullseye'

       Your comments are right on target.

       I was amused when Luxon said "Mandates should be lifted when the omicron wave goes through" wasn't he listening to Jacinda?…or did he write his speech prior to hers? He is not very adept at dealing with new information if not.
   • Muttonbird 5.3

     22 February 2022 at 10:50 am

     https://twitter.com/CLRenney/status/1495581915180859394
     • Muttonbird 5.3.1

       22 February 2022 at 10:53 am

       https://twitter.com/mintyhiggins/status/1495668512777515011
6. Adrian 6

   21 February 2022 at 9:52 pm

   Saw it as a portent of his trajectory that he appeared to appease the shit-heads on mandates hours after they threw their own shit at the Police, which is something that I thought only happened in lunatic asylems.
   • The Al1en 6.1

     22 February 2022 at 11:07 am

     And Ecuadorian embassies.

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