Grinding to a halt

Written By: - Date published: 8:12 am, December 2nd, 2011 - 30 comments
Categories: debt / deficit, Economy - Tags:

In May, they were promising growth would be 4.2% in 2012. By October, it was 3.3%. November, 2.5%. December, 1.5% …. with ‘downside risks’ aplenty. Looks like we’re going to be waiting on that brighter future a while longer. Vernon Small points out there’s no way National’s going to keep its promise to get back into surplus in 2014. When will they tell the truth?

And what are they going to do about it? When the Budget shows larger and longer deficits, what are they going to do?

Cut our public services, of course. They could unwind the billions in tax cuts to the rich, but that ain’t their way.

And what’ll they do about the fact that the economy isn’t growing? Nothing. They’ll keep on doing what they were going to do anyway – build highways to nowhere that just so happen to serve their constituencies (and their beach houses), subsidise their farmer mates, sell our stuff to their banker mates.

But it’ll be a good excuse to go a bit further: like more weakening of environmental and employment protections, and sell more of the assets.

In a world where the economy isn’t growing any more and shrinking, it comes down to who takes how much of what’s left. The question is whether we let the elite, the 1%, grab more and more or whether we say that it’s time that ordinary people has a fair crack.

30 comments on “Grinding to a halt ”

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  1. ghostwhowalksnz 1
    2 December 2011 at 8:48 am

    Mini budget anyone ?
    The Brits just had one. Once the coalition cats have been given a saucer of milk to lap up and are purring nicely they will have the taser used on them to pass the mini budget. No cost of living increases this year for benefits and pensions. And so on. Ruth Richardson will be chuffed

  2. queenstfarmer 2
    2 December 2011 at 9:04 am

    There is no doubt we remain in a tough global environment, which means it would be daft to hike taxes as you suggest. Remember Barack Obama’s wise words:

    The last thing you want to do is raise taxes in the middle of a recession, because that would just suck up, take more demand out of the economy and put businesses in a further hole.

    One of the many reasons Labour got hammered this election was because it campaigned against this common sense.

    • Draco T Bastard 2.1
      2 December 2011 at 9:24 am

      As I told you before – Obama’s an idiot and so are you. We actually do need to increase the taxes on the rich else that money just gets taken out of the economy and does nothing except by a few more holidays to Hawaii.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 2.2
      2 December 2011 at 9:35 am

      Then why did they raise GST ?

      • queenstfarmer 2.2.1
        2 December 2011 at 9:51 am

        The GST rise was specifically intended to be tax neutral – it was offset by income tax & benefit adjustments.

        • Lanthanide 2.2.1.1
          2 December 2011 at 10:37 am

          “The GST rise was specifically intended to be tax neutral”

          The road to Hell is paved with good intentions.

          ” – it was offset by income tax & benefit adjustments.”

          Not in reality, where the tax cuts have cost $1.1B so far and counting.

      • Lanthanide 2.2.2
        2 December 2011 at 10:31 am

        To make sure all those beneficiaries paid a tax once in their life, obviously.

        • Blighty 2.2.2.1
          2 December 2011 at 2:10 pm

          I’ve never got that line from the Right.

          Don’t they know that benefits are taxable income? Guess they’re not so on to it when it comes to finance after all.

        • Vicky32 2.2.2.2
          4 December 2011 at 5:14 pm

          To make sure all those beneficiaries paid a tax once in their life, obviously.

          ????????????????????????? Do you, Lanth, believe we don’t pay tax, or are you saying that (other) righties don’t believe it?

        • Colonial Viper 2.2.2.3
          4 December 2011 at 6:14 pm

          Is GST a tax? How about the tax on petrol?

    • One Anonymous Bloke 2.3
      2 December 2011 at 10:18 am

      Obama is a lawyer, so one thing we know about his statements on economics is: he’s repeating what he’s been told, just like you, Qtf. So, I ask myself, who is more credible than you are? “Just about everyone imaginable” I say to myself, but specifically, Paul Krugman and Warren Buffet.

      However, perhaps you have some evidence (we’ve already heard your opinion, so don’t bother repeating it) that suggests Obama is parroting wisdom. If so let’s see it.

    • mik e 2.4
      3 December 2011 at 12:09 am

      Obama was pleading to a repulicking house of representatives any other comments would see him shot down you idiot.

    • Colonial Viper 2.5
      3 December 2011 at 12:49 am

      There is no doubt we remain in a tough global environment

      Not for the top 1% of the top 1%.

      The wealth of the NZ Rich list has grown by $7B in one year. Iwi corporates and individuals now control over $30B in wealth, a number which has rapidly grown.

      Bonuses and champagne for the top.

      Austerity for everyone else.

  3. Craig Glen Eden 3
    2 December 2011 at 9:14 am

    Yup but the media is to blame in NZ, they have continued to run Keys narrative, whether the facts prove otherwise it does not seem to matter. No questioning of the veracity of the narrative is ever done by the media. Take one look at the work that the media are currently doing to try and stop Labour having a leader that will take on Shonkey this whole line that Cunliffe is not popular is more of the same they are setting it up so Cunliffe starts on the back foot. Anyone who knows the Labour Party and has worked in it campaigning or selling raffles knows their is no way in hell that Shearer would be able to run the Party and take on National. Still the narrative is run because they know when Cunliffe gets in Labour will have a leader who will take Key on no wonder National want Shearer.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 3.1
      2 December 2011 at 9:38 am

      You dont have ‘catch him out’ when you can ‘bowl him out’ at the stumps.

      Clark left all the financial stuff to Cullen and did domestic and foreign policy.

  4. Draco T Bastard 4
    2 December 2011 at 9:22 am

    They could unwind the billions in tax cuts to the rich, but that ain’t their way.

    Nope, it ain’t their way, just like fixing the deficit by unwinding tax cuts for the rich in the US isn’t the way of the Republicans.

    The question is whether we let the elite, the 1%, grab more and more or whether we say that it’s time that ordinary people has a fair crack.

    It’s time that we, quite simply, stopped the rort that the 1% perpetrates against the rest of us.

  5. vto 5
    2 December 2011 at 9:26 am

    Well, you know, quite why people ever believed any of that shit I do not know.

    Those organisations which come out with this stuff have a very poor record of accuracy. FFS, we still hang on the words of the ratings agencies who couldn’t even see the GFC coming – I mean, what the fuck? (although quite obviously they did see it coming but for a whole bunch of reasons did not so advise…… ask yourself. No seriously, ask yourself. And then ask John Key).

    It
    is
    all
    a
    rort
    .

    • Afewknowthetruth 5.1
      2 December 2011 at 10:11 am

      VTO

      Yes, it is all a rort. That’s why the lies need to get bigger as time goes on.

      On the matter of ratings agencies:

      Standard and Poor’s has downgraded the credit ratings of the big four Australian banks and their New Zealand units by one notch to AA- as part of its global review of bank ratings. Their ratings outlooks are stable.

      S&P cut ANZ National Bank Ltd’s rating and UDC Finance’s rating to AA- from AA, having also cut the rating of their Australian parent ANZ Group to AA- from AA.

      It cut Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s rating to AA- from AA and that of its subsidiary ASB to AA- from AA.

      National Australia Bank’s rating, and that of its subsidiary Bank of New Zealand, were cut to AA- from AA.

      Westpac Banking Corp’s rating was cut to AA- from AA. Its New Zealand subsidiary Westpac New Zealand was cut to AA- from AA.

      Standard and Poor’s cut Macquarie Bank’s rating by two notches to BBB.
      More soon

      – INTEREST.CO.NZ,

  6. Afewknowthetruth 6
    2 December 2011 at 10:13 am

    DTB

    That HTML system doesn’t work. There is no ” at the end of the quote.

    • Draco T Bastard 6.1
      2 December 2011 at 11:59 am

      Works fine. The beginning of the quote is marked and the quote itself is indented and it’s the indentation that highlights the quote – not the quote marks. It’s quite obvious what you wrote and what you quoted.

  7. Maggie May 7
    2 December 2011 at 10:28 am

    Well if I see someone breaking the law or breaking into a house I will turn the other way because these people who only care about themselves and couldn’t care a brass monkey about the rest of us living in NZ do not deserve us to help them make a society that they want to live in.

  8. Afewknowthetruth 8
    2 December 2011 at 10:39 am

    The CEO of Pimco:

    http://www.pimco.com/Pages/default.aspx

    was interviewed on Hard Talk yesterday.

    Major points:

    1. The system is confidence based and there is less and less confidence as time goes by.

    2. People are closing their wallets and holding on to cash. Investors are moving to cash.

    3. Risk management is becoming unmanageable.

    4. The actions taken over 2008-11 by central banks wallpapered over the cracks but have made the system more prone to collapse.

    5. There is a 50/50 chance the Euro will collapse before Christmas 2011.

    Needless to say, both the interviewer and the interviewee avoided mentioning any of the fundamantal reasons for the global economic system grinding to a halt -peak oil, declining EROEI etc.

    And needless to say, much of what he said about imminenet collapse has known to some of us for quite a while.

    • joe90 8.1
      2 December 2011 at 1:33 pm

      Previously

      William H. Gross, founder of PIMCO and manager of the $242.7 billion Total Return Fund writes:

      Six Pac(k)in’

      Long-term profits cannot ultimately grow unless they are partnered with near equal benefits for labor.

      There is only a New Normal economy at best and a global recession at worst to look forward to in future years.

      If global policymakers could focus on structural as opposed to cyclical financial solutions, New Normal growth as opposed to recession might be possible.

      ……

      Yet to return to my initial criticism of cyclically finance-based as opposed to structural policy solutions, almost all remedies proposed by global authorities to date have approached the problem from the standpoint of favoring capital as opposed to labor. If the banks could just be stabilized, if the “markets” could just be elevated back in the direction of peak 401(k) levels, if interest rates could just be lower so that borrowers would inevitably take the bait, then labor – job creation – would inevitably follow. It has not. The explanation for why not must at least include the rationale that Wall Street and Main Street are symbiotically connected and if one benefits at the expense of the other, then both ultimately can falter.

      (authors bold)

  9. Afewknowthetruth 9
    2 December 2011 at 10:43 am

    DTB

    The bold highlighter doesn’t work well either. It highlighted entire phrases when I highlighted only individual words in my comment.

    • Draco T Bastard 9.1
      2 December 2011 at 12:09 pm

      Yeah, there’s a reason why I don’t use the WYSIWYG editor but enter straight HTML.

      Really, you’re starting to sound like you’re making complaints so as to justify not implementing proper formatting. Isn’t that what you accuse others of doing re Climate Change and Peak Oil?

      • Afewknowthetruth 9.1.1
        2 December 2011 at 1:19 pm

        DTC

        Not at all. I’m just pointing out that the first time I tried ‘doing fancy stuff’ the system was not user friendly and gave quite a different result from that indicated.

        It really has nothing to do with pointing out the realities of peak oil collapse, economic colalpse and environmental collapse. They are proceeding at a gathering pace irrespective of the level of denial in society or the vagaries of computer systems.

  10. Glenn 10
    2 December 2011 at 5:10 pm

    The economy isn’t growing because… according to the many right wing members of my family.

    A…Because there was this terrible earthquake which will be oh so expensive to fix.
    B…Because the Euro problem is affecting trade. It’s not Johns fault!
    C… Because the Greenies won’t allow mining our way to wealth. Who needs national parks anyway.
    D… It’s the beneficiaries/ superannuants fault. …especially the first!
    E…It’s the Maoris fault…Obviously.
    F…It’s Helens fault…..This should be at A. When poor John Key took over the cupboard was bare. Helen and Michael had spent all the money on Maoris, beneficiaries and superannuants.

  11. Revolution 11
    2 December 2011 at 6:21 pm

    So true the world is at its peak everything all it can do is descale. This govt lies will only accelerate the inevitable which is everybody is going to have to cut everything they do starting with the bullshit that goes on in parliament that suffices for putting our nation on a sustainable footing, not growth, but value

    Why we even have an election is beyond me all the opposition parties should have banded together and threatened a complete overthrow of the govt and held them to account for the bullshit they expect us to uphold as legal What is the use of a vote if all we are going to get is right wing tyranny
    Key can no longer lie about the fact that his overseas masters are telling him what to do with this country if we want to survive when the next round of carving up the pacific starts

    See what real guts are left when all those who can leave NZ will and only the physically fit and the hunter gathers are able to survive cause the powers turned off by some other country and the phone cable is cut cause we cant afford it and the water is being sucked out by the Europeans and tanked to their survival locations AND worst of all just like they are doing to Afghanistan now

    We should be ashamed at how bloody blind this govt is being to what will happen to this country

    Pick up a gun and march on parliament and see how far our police state has come
    THIS COUNTRY IS NOT A DEMOCRACY ANYMORE

    • Draco T Bastard 11.1
      2 December 2011 at 6:50 pm

      We should be ashamed at how bloody blind this govt is being to what will happen to this country

      Whatever gave you the idea that they were blind to what will happen to this country?