Latest Roy Morgan poll

Written By: - Date published: 12:45 pm, December 8th, 2009 - 30 comments
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The latest Roy Morgan shows no statistically significant changes. National at 53.5% (up 2), Labour at 30.5% (down 1.5), and the Green at 7% (up 0.5).

Only a third of polling period was after Goff’s nationhood speech, so any possible effects likely won’t show up till the next poll.

In late November support for John Key’s National-led Government rose 1.5% to 58.5%; comprising National Party 53.5% (up 2%), Maori Party 3.5% (up 1.5%) and ACT NZ 1.5% (down 1%) according to the Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll.

Support for Opposition parties is 41.5% (down 1.5%); Labour Party 30.5% (down 2.5%), Greens 7% (up 0.5%), NZ First 2.5% (unchanged) and Others 1.5% (up 0.5%).

If an Election were held today the National Party would still win easily.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 144 (up 2 points) with 66% (up 1.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 22% (down 0.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’

Anyone know whether the Herald digipoll is the next major one due?

30 comments on “Latest Roy Morgan poll ”

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  1. mickysavage 1
    8 December 2009 at 12:55 pm

    Matthew Hooten said on morning report recently that he understood polls were tracking a decline in support for National. He said that he thought there would be a change in the next major polls. There is a TV3 poll due out on Sunday.

    I mucked up the link but the source is at http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/national/ntn/2009/12/07/politics_-_andrew_campbell_and_matthew_hooten

    • Michael Foxglove 1.1
      8 December 2009 at 1:03 pm

      Wouldn’t it be nice to finally see the Tories heading down. Here’s hoping.

      I admit skepticism with regards to anything Hooten says… You never know what his motives are.

  2. gingercrush 2
    8 December 2009 at 1:47 pm

    Hooton said those were tracking polls. They’re not the same thing. Tracking polls are awful, rather like Roy Morgan which is just showing the same thing it did last month except for a 2% difference or so.

  3. Bored 3
    8 December 2009 at 1:48 pm

    What the polls tell me loud and clear is that the Nats have the harder job for the next election, that is defending their lead. At 60 / 40 this means the opposition parties have to pick up 10 per cent to be on evens…1 person in 10. Thats one person in every ten who currently is probably unaware what Labours differentiation etc is….I for one could not tell you what it is in common person terms. Sad really.

  4. John Dalley 4
    8 December 2009 at 2:03 pm

    Complete waste of time even bothering with polls until two to two and a half years in to National’s first term.
    I have said it for several months now that you will find a major downwards swing for National by the end of the second year.

  5. Brett Dale 5
    8 December 2009 at 2:14 pm

    National up two and Labour down 1.5, pretty much a trend happening.

    Would it take Labour’s support to drop below 30% for Labour supporters to admit their party is in big big trouble.

    • Tim Ellis 5.1
      8 December 2009 at 2:21 pm

      I think that is a bit of a stretch Mr Dale. You can’t pick a trend from one poll.

      There is a trend however over the last nine months. That trend is for Labour to not get any traction on anything, for Mr Goff to be increasingly desperate to drum up support, and for Labour’s polling support to not move upwards.

      It will be interesting to see how Labour’s caucus responds in the next few weeks. Traditionally when people are on holiday and around the barbecue over summer the support for the government goes up, and the support for the opposition goes down, which suggests Mr Goff’s party might go as low as 25% by February.

      Will Mr Robertson and the liberal wing of Labour’s caucus start to panic then?

    • ParkDrive 5.2
      8 December 2009 at 2:50 pm

      The thing is though, Labour got a hammering in 08, much like National did in 02.

      The difference? 10%.

      Labours core support is 10% greater than Nationals, so there is little likelihood of Labour dropping down below 28%

      • Tim Ellis 5.2.1
        8 December 2009 at 3:11 pm

        Not really ParkDrive. Labour’s “hammering” in 2008 was closer to National’s “hammering” in 1999. Labour still has some way to go to reach the depths of National’s blasting in 2002, although Mr Goff seems to be well on his way to achieving it.

        • ParkDrive 5.2.1.1
          8 December 2009 at 5:22 pm

          How can you justify that tim? Nationals core support is nowhere near what you purport it to be as per 1999 votes. 2002 is Nationals core support base. 20%
          The core 20% that wanted their party in, no matter the leader.

          Labours core support is much more founded as being 28 – 30% given the media drubbing last year and the sweet insincere platitudes of McKey.

          It’s interesting to note that our support hasn’t much gone away from 30% which indicates that Labours support is very much firm at that level.

          • Tim Ellis 5.2.1.1.1
            8 December 2009 at 5:40 pm

            Parkdrive, an interesting discussion. If by “core support” you mean the lowest the political party has got in the last generation, then Labour’s low point was in 1996 when they got 28% of the vote. National had never received anything close to 21% when they got the drubbing in 2002. I think it’s a bit of a nonsense to think in those terms.

            Labour’s support barely fell below 40% when they were in government, until around 2007, when they consistently stayed in the mid thirties. National are consistently polling around 7-8% higher than they received at the election, and Labour is consistently polling about 4% lower.

            In other words, any thought that Labour supporters have of magically easing back into government in 2011 is fairyland. The gap between National and Labour is more than twice now what it was at the last election. This is a very popular government, headed by a very popular leader, on the way out of recession. The thought that the recession might harm National hasn’t eventuated. Labour has a very unpopular leader, of a very unpopular party, approaching the half way point in this term.

            It’s not surprising that Labour wants to maintain a degree of unity behind Mr Goff, so that he can take the blame for its inevitable loss in 2011, but I think it is a bit silly to pretend that it’s because they actually think he is the best person to lead Labour in the future.

            • ParkDrive 5.2.1.1.1.1
              8 December 2009 at 8:30 pm

              Do you even read what you wrote Tim Ellis?

              “Labours core support was 28% in 1996”

              So you agree with me then Tim Ellis. Glad that’s sorted.

              We know what Nationals low point is. The surprising thing is that it took so long to get there.

              The NAMP government isn’t popular. Nga Puhi aren’t as inflential as they think they are, but the manager is overwhelmingly liked because he’s the manager we all want. Someone who will be nice to us and look like they’re listening to us, because we don’t like big scary bad Helen telling us what we can and can’t do.

              It’s why New Zealanders suck at doing business overseas because we’re all so desperate to be liked.

              Goff is the best Leader for the future. People will eventually like the ordered structure of the Labour Party again, not to mention immediate decisions rather than the dawdling exhibited by McKey for much of this year.

              Every now and then we all like to blob out and just relax for once. This time though, our Goober is doing it with us unemployed people who are quite enjoying getting things done around the home while simultaneously applying for work galore, but aren’t too stressed thanks to the wonderful generosity given by fellow Kiwis as we use our Hand Up to get by while things are tough.

              So Tim Ellis, I’m looking forward to the next mess you regurgitate.

      • gingercrush 5.2.2
        8 December 2009 at 3:12 pm

        The big difference in 2008 was that United Future nor New Zealand First were going to get those votes back.So whereas 2002 saw a real shift to third parties. 2005 and 2008 saw more consolidation between the major parties.

    • lprent 5.3
      8 December 2009 at 3:02 pm

      From curia’s helpful little e-mail

      October saw three political polls – two Morgan polls and a One News Colmar Brunton poll.

      The average of the public polls has National 22% ahead of Labour and able to govern alone. The gap in October was 28% and in September was 20% so is back to where it has been most of the year.

      Thats a ‘trend’??? Are you reverting to idiocy again Brett?

  6. Swimmer 6
    8 December 2009 at 2:31 pm

    The last thing anyone should be doing is panicking, that won’t help will it. He might not
    be low either.

  7. vidiot 7
    8 December 2009 at 2:39 pm

    “no statistically significant changes”

    A 4.9% drop in support is not significant ?

    • felix 7.1
      8 December 2009 at 2:48 pm

      Where’s the 4.9% drop, vidiot?

      • vidiot 7.1.1
        8 December 2009 at 3:35 pm

        32.0% down to 30.5% is a 4.9% drop

        Just like an increase from 30% to 33% is a 10% rise in support.

        [lprent: Irish just banned you for 6 months. Bit of a pity as I had you down for a bit of comment torment for the same comment, but he got in first. ]

    • Armchair Critic 7.2
      8 December 2009 at 4:09 pm

      The margin of error at a 95% level of confidence for the sample size (849 people) is about 1.5%, according to Roy Morgan.
      A decrease from 32% to 30.5% is at about the margin of error. A rise from 51.5% to 53.5% is slightly above the margin of error.
      Trying to deduce anything from movements between polls that are about the same magnitude as the margin of error is pointless – in other words “no statistically significant changes”. The trend over the last year or so seems to be a steady level of support for both National and Labour.
      The real poll is a couple of years away. Every poll between now and then is just more statistics.
      Back to the topic – now is not the time for Labour to be considering a change of leadership. There are two good years for National to provide Labour with ammunition, on top of what it already has, to win the 2011 election. Labour needs to focus on rebuilding and preparing to become the next government. That will make it electable. Tearing down what it has already built, through in-fighting within the party, will only serve to make Labour completely unelectable in 2011.

  8. coge 8
    8 December 2009 at 3:15 pm

    Labour should consult Michael Mann, & get him to knock out a graph showing Labour’s increasing support.

  9. Dancr 9
    8 December 2009 at 3:46 pm

    This was the observation from the Herald (ahead of the poll of course):
    Just over a year into his stewardship of the Labour Party, Phil Goff faces difficult choices. A continuation of his desperately low ranking in preferred Prime Minister polls is unthinkable…Mr Goff needs to differentiate himself and his party. But this will succeed only if the correct targets are selected. On the evidence so far, his compass is awry…Th[e] attack left some of the party’s more liberal MPs uncomfortable. Philosophically, they were alarmed and, practically, they worried about Labour’s appeal to the Maori constituency. More of his MPs and the party president are now even more ill at ease. That can only suggest that, for the sake of his credibility, Mr Goff needs to choose his targets much more astutely.
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10614143&pnum=0

    • Craig Glen Eden 9.1
      8 December 2009 at 4:09 pm

      HMMMMMM the Herald now theres a voice of reason?

      Like anyone would listen to them. I seem to remember democracy was coming to an end with the Electoral finance act coming into place.

  10. Swimmer 10
    8 December 2009 at 4:13 pm

    “Tearing down what it has already built, through in-fighting within the party, will only serve to make Labour completely unelectable in 2011.” – Absolutely !

    Phil’s speech was fine, what wasn’t fine was how it was spun.

  11. outofbed 11
    8 December 2009 at 5:54 pm

    Meanwhile in UK
    CON 38%(39)
    LAB 30%(29)
    LD 20%(18)
    OTHERS % 11(14)
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/