Latest Roy Morgan Poll

Written By: - Date published: 7:36 pm, December 11th, 2013 - 109 comments
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RoyMorgan11122013

And the results are bouncing around.  Labour is down 3.5 and the Greens are up 3.5%.  And the two blocks are neck and neck …

According to Gary Morgan:

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (45%, up 0.5%) now exactly level with a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (45%, unchanged) just over a week before New Zealanders enjoy their Christmas and New Year’s Holidays.

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that minor parties including New Zealand First (5%, up 1.5%), the Conservative Party of NZ (2%, unchanged), the Maori Party (1.5%, unchanged) and the Mana Party (1%, unchanged) will determine the shape of New Zealand’s next Government.

Despite a drop in support, the main opposition Labour Party received a boost in recent weeks with a comprehensive victory at the Christchurch East by-election – Labour candidate Poto Williams (8,119 votes) easily defeated National’s Matthew Doocey (3,506 votes) in a seat Labour has held continuously since it was re-established for the 1996 New Zealand Election.”

109 comments on “Latest Roy Morgan Poll ”

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  1. Te Reo Putake 1
    11 December 2013 at 7:45 pm

    Shows the value of getting the asset sales hoardings up early. Good work, Greens. Nice to see ACT registering a big fat zero and Colin Cray Cray functioning only as a right wing vote disposal unit. The two percent wasted on the conservatives is likely to be the margin Labour/Greens win by, so it’s all coming together nicely.

  2. Colonial Viper 2
    11 December 2013 at 7:51 pm

    Very average. Let’s see how the next polls go which take full account of the retirement age increase. I’d also like to see if Labour has clawed back the gender differential it suffered after conference.

    • weka 2.1
      12 December 2013 at 12:05 am

      Hmmm, how would you tell which was being reflected in the poll?

      • Colonial Viper 2.1.1
        12 December 2013 at 12:11 am

        RM made that exception the one time after Conference to report on the gender data they had collected. I suspect you would have to pay them to get that breakdown now. There were only a couple of RM polling days after Parker’s announcement that Labour was lifting the super eligibility age so it will be barely reflected in this poll.

        Essentially, Labour got a bit of unpopular election year policy out of the way before Christmas. It’ll be interesting what news the NATs dump on the nation over the next week or so.

  3. kenny 3
    11 December 2013 at 7:58 pm

    This just goes to show the folly of Labour MPs being missing-in-action. Keeping a low profile will never get a party noticed.

    • Will@Welly 3.1
      11 December 2013 at 8:17 pm

      Two choices – missing-in-action or shooting yourself in the foot. Hone goes to S.A., Kevin Hague behaves dignified, meanwhile on the homefront Sue Moroney is getting suckered in by Bill English’s noises over paid parental leave. Phil thinks the TPP is a good deal. Yep, looks like 2008 all over again, Labour handing the election to National on a plate.
      Wakey, wakey, even the electors can see through the smoke and mirrors. Ah, but power has a price.

  4. red blooded 4
    11 December 2013 at 8:07 pm

    If people are bouncing back to the Greens it’s partly cos Cunliffe is playing it too safe. I was NOT impressed to hear him commenting this morning on how he had enjoyed the company of Bolger and McKinnon as part of the NZ delegation to Mandela’s funeral. He said he was going to be a left leaning Labour leader, now he needs to step up to the mark.

    • gobsmacked 4.1
      11 December 2013 at 8:20 pm

      What would you expect him to say, and how would it win votes?

      Cunliffe isn’t the problem.

      • Ad 4.1.1
        11 December 2013 at 8:27 pm

        Well he sure ain’t looking like the solution right now.
        He is bobbing around without apparent theme or plan or presence.

      • Ake ake ake 4.1.2
        11 December 2013 at 8:39 pm

        Would have expected him to say something that would convey he is in charge, with an overarching narrative that communicates it all makes sense given the comments by Shane WTF Jones, David Parker’s announcement to lift the super age or GST has to go up even more, and Phil Goff’s ra-ra-ra TPP is good.

      • Paul 4.1.3
        11 December 2013 at 8:45 pm

        I’d expect him to sound more like a socialist leader.
        Listen to how folk like Minto speak.

    • infused 4.2
      11 December 2013 at 11:47 pm

      It’s because Cunliffe is an idiot. Saying one thing to one party, one thing to another. People are not stupid.

      • Paul 4.2.1
        11 December 2013 at 11:54 pm

        Oh an insult.
        That was a worthwhile entry into the discussion.

        • Murray Olsen 4.2.1.1
          12 December 2013 at 1:02 am

          Maybe it was a bit of a stupid insult, but Cunliffe isn’t doing much to show us there’s no truth to it. He should be doing something about Jones, Parker, and Goff. Silence suggests he agrees with them.

        • infused 4.2.1.2
          12 December 2013 at 8:12 am

          yeah the truth hurts.

          • Arfamo 4.2.1.2.1
            12 December 2013 at 8:16 am

            People are not stupid.

            Of course they are. Enough of them were for Key to be able to form a government.

            • Colonial Viper 4.2.1.2.1.1
              12 December 2013 at 8:21 am

              I know your comment is a bit tongue and cheek but that’s not entirely true and a rewriting of that history will not help us understand the failure.

              Labour did not provide a strong, in touch alternative or a strong enough campaign for many to vote for. It’s one reason why NZ First and the Greens surged ahead. People were getting sick of Key and wanted alternatives. Another 50,000 – 100,000 votes for the red team and John Key would not have been able to govern.

              • Arfamo …
                12 December 2013 at 8:26 am

                Ah that’s better. Got my original label colour back now. I’m just staggered at what apathetic voters have allowed these clowns to do – the damage could take decades to fix. The entire public service is riddled with clowns at the helm as well, but that problem existed under the Labour administration too.

                • Colonial Viper …
                  12 December 2013 at 8:44 am

                  Blaming the electorate for not being smart enough to vote you in is a bit of an easy way out of dodging responsibility IMO.

                  You can’t have a political party which claims to represent the interests of the 90% then get less than 30% of the vote. That suggests a massive disconnect somewhere.

                  • Arfamo …
                    12 December 2013 at 8:49 am

                    Yup. I think the disconnect starts at the income level and widens the more one has available for investment.

                • Paul …
                  12 December 2013 at 8:15 pm

                  Agreed Arfarmo.
                  We have a dumbed down population brought up on the distractions of celebrity and sport and fed a diet of junk food and news by the corporations and the media.#

      • felix 4.2.2
        12 December 2013 at 1:02 am

        “It’s because Cunliffe is an idiot. Saying one thing to one party, one thing to another.”

        I wonder if any of you are ever going to come up with an example of that..

        “People are not stupid.”

        And yet…

    • mac1 4.3
      12 December 2013 at 8:39 am

      The problem might just be with how Cunliffe is reported; that is, the difference between what he actually is asked, what he says and what is reported.

      The interview:
      Reporter: So, Mac1, would you like to have gone to Madela’s funeral with Bolger and MacKinnon?
      Mac1: Yes, it would have been great to have gone……….
      Reporter: Why would that be?
      Mac1: To pay my respects to a man who influenced my life in a positive way, who taught the world the way to reconciliation was a path to be preferred, to see how South Africa has fared since apartheid against which by the way I protested from the Sixties, to learn from that society’s experience after both colonialism and authoritarian rule, to investigate reconciliation and inclusion as a basis for a society to conduct itself, to see …………………..

      The report:
      Mac1 says it would be great to have gone to South Africa with Bolger and MacKinnon.

  5. Paul 5
    11 December 2013 at 8:07 pm

    The Greens make clear stand on issues like Assets Sales and the TPP.
    Why would you vote Labour if you were one of the 800 000 non voters; Labour continue to fudge on key economic issues, which they have since the 80s. It is clear that are still infected by neo-liberal ideas within the party. Until these factions are removed, then many just see Labour as a milder version of the Tories.

    • Bearded Git 5.1
      12 December 2013 at 8:18 am

      Yes but the beauty of the left’s position is that if you think Labour is weak on policy you can vote Green instead. Key’s problem is he only has the crazy crayfish on his right. (Love ACT’s Roy Morgan zero)

      As I keep repeating, Winston hates Key and will go with Cunliffe, probably with the Greens on the outside again. Labour/Greens/Mana/NZF are home and hosed on this latest RM poll.

      • Wayne 5.1.1
        12 December 2013 at 12:15 pm

        Winston is unlikely to allow a major party that is more than 10 points behind the other major party to form a government, especially with him as only the third wicket in such a deal.

        In contrast, in the Roy Morgan situation his negotiating position with National would be very strong. He would say to the NZ public that he was going with their most preferred party, which is actually a view he holds quite strongly.

        For Labour to be in frame (when Winston holds the balance) the gap has to be significantly less than 10 points. I would say no more than seven.

        • gobsmacked 5.1.1.1
          12 December 2013 at 12:27 pm

          Wayne

          Would you prefer a deal with Winston Peters, or with Colin Craig?

          (post-election, not pre- )

        • framu 5.1.1.2
          12 December 2013 at 12:54 pm

          Your forgetting the act/nat initiated witch hunt that saw winston removed from office a few years back. Do you want to put money on winston having forgotten that?

          im not saying winston was innocent, just that the nat/act machine is just as bad – remember how straight after rodders got in trouble?

        • alwyn 5.1.1.3
          12 December 2013 at 2:35 pm

          If Winston and his hangers on get back into Parliament after the next election, and he was in the position of Kingmaker, I think he would prefer to go with National. He’d rather be the second party in a coalition that third in one where the second party hates you.
          I think he would also go with the party that will give him a knighthood. Are Labour out of Clark’s shadow enough to do that?
          On the other hand I am not sure that National would have him. Governments he has been part of struggle a bit don’t they. National might decide a K/G/NZF mixture would be explosive and the Government would collapse within a year.
          The idea however that Winnie actually cares who is the largest party is wrong though. Winnie only cares about the best interests of Winnie.

          • Arfamo 5.1.1.3.1
            12 December 2013 at 2:39 pm

            Has Winnie, since he established NZ Farced, ever been part of a government that didn’t get booted out at the next election? I could be wrong about this but I have the impression that once Winston’s become part of any coalition government, it’s been doomed.

            • Wayne 5.1.1.3.1.1
              12 December 2013 at 5:37 pm

              They are third term governments so were probably going to lose anyway.

              • alwyn …
                12 December 2013 at 8:08 pm

                Your interpretation is absolutely right but somehow it is so dull.
                I prefer to take Arfamo’s view that Winnie is the equivalent of a suicide bomber or perhaps Typhoid Mary.
                Much more dramatic somehow, don’t you think?

  6. gobsmacked 6
    11 December 2013 at 8:16 pm

    Morgan polls have some general merit, but the Morgan commentary has none –

    If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that minor parties including New Zealand First (5%, up 1.5%), the Conservative Party of NZ (2%, unchanged), the Maori Party (1.5%, unchanged) and the Mana Party (1%, unchanged) will determine the shape of New Zealand’s next Government.

    No, it doesn’t show that. It shows that NZ First would be in Parliament, but the Conservatives, United Future and ACT wouldn’t. Of course they might each win electorate seats, but that is entirely separate – there is no information about that in the poll. (There’s no info about Mana or the Maori parties either, but unlike Dunne, Craig and ACToid Anonymous, they aren’t wedded to National).

    What the poll really shows is that the Conservatives are a media fiction. In the history of MMP, no party outside Parliament has had as much publicity as the CCCP in the past month. It has made no difference at all.

    Usual caveats, margin of error etc. But if Craig isn’t above or close to 5%, even after weeks of headlines, he’s one hell of a gamble for John Key.

  7. just saying 7
    11 December 2013 at 8:16 pm

    Maybe Cunliffe needs to start walking his (leadership battle) talk.
    Anytime now would be good.

    • lurgee 7.1
      11 December 2013 at 8:22 pm

      Give him six more months!

    • kenny 7.2
      11 December 2013 at 8:25 pm

      +1

      David Cunliffe has to start leading from the front and taking it to National.

    • gobsmacked 7.3
      11 December 2013 at 8:26 pm

      No. He has a good grasp of public opinion, even if many Standardistas do not. Outside a tiny minority, politics is winding down for the year.

      Cunliffe should do nothing except recharge batteries and work on internal matters (campaign staffing, caucus renewal etc) for the next month. It’s election year that matters, from February on.

      • Ad 7.3.1
        11 December 2013 at 9:02 pm

        You have far too narrow a view of politics and its ambit.

        From the close of Parliament next week, right through to the middle of January, newspapers and tv newsrooms are begging for stories to do.

        Cunliffe has absolutely no profile outside of Parliament or Labour (other than on rare set pieces).

        The next 60 days would be usefully employed on all the soft stories that Clark did so well: sports events, arts events, orchestras, society pages, columns and op-eds: content so that stations and newspapers can wrap their advertising around them.

        It can certainly be done to a plan – it does not need to be done ad-hoc as it apparently is now.

        But clearly for any sense of plan or consistent message to emerge we have to wait for Simon Cunliffe to be installed as Chief Press Secretary in mid-January.

        This Labour leader needs to be broadened out. Politics is a heartless competition: he needs to arrest this floundering around so well illustrated in the polls – or the members will start asking the same questions of him as they asked of Shearer.

        • gobsmacked 7.3.1.1
          11 December 2013 at 9:25 pm

          Well, he isn’t riding a motor bike or chopping wood or playing the guitar or talking about how he’d like to do Liz Hurley, and – speaking only for myself, perhaps – I’m very relieved that he isn’t.

          I don’t have time tonight to run through my preferred Cunliffe Strategy, but in a nutshell it would be “Do what you’re good at, be your cerebral self (simply because that’s who you are), be focused and you’ll be fine.” In other words, ignore anyone who gave advice to Shearer or Goff.

          In 2014 voters – especially potential Labour voters – will want an antidote to John Key.

          To be continued …

          • Colonial Viper 7.3.1.1.1
            11 December 2013 at 11:00 pm

            In other words, ignore anyone who gave advice to Shearer or Goff.

            In terms of the hired help, the are mostly gone (or banished) now…as for the elected help, well that’s a work in progress.

          • Bearded Git 7.3.1.1.2
            12 December 2013 at 8:23 am

            +1

      • kenny 7.3.2
        11 December 2013 at 9:08 pm

        But he has to do that AS WELL (that surely is a given). I thought the election campaign started when he was elected leader – every chance we get we have to make them look over their shoulders in fear, so to speak. Don’t give them time to draw breath before the next attack; be relentless in exposing their dis-regard for the 99%.

        Then watch the polls improve.

      • Anne 7.3.3
        11 December 2013 at 9:36 pm

        +1 @ gobsmacked 7.3

        Yes, he’s concentrated on the groundwork for next year leaving no stone unturned which is precisely what he should be doing. He’s re-organised and re-energised the caucus – another priority. He’s working to ensure he has the best team of advisers and spin doctors available. It takes time to do all of the above but he seems to have succeeded in less than 3 months. Pretty good going in my book. He’s already proven he’s Key’s match in the House which will gradually win him kudos among the largely apolitical voting public.

        After 3 months of intense preparation, next year should be pay-off year.

  8. Ad 8
    11 December 2013 at 8:26 pm

    TRP is correct on the numbers but far too charitable. OK it could be worse it could be Shearer.

    On the back of Labour Party conference, the Christchurch East, the education results scandal, and the assets referendum, Cunliffe has had all the platform one would wish for to improve. Instead we went backwards. I thought this guy was supposed to do better?

    Labour appear to be on a binge-purge cycle caused in my view by a lack of media strategy, lack of a functioning diary around which good stories can be built, and lack in fact of anything except set-piece wonders.

    IMO Cunliffe looks unfocussed and peripheral. His apparent plan of relying on getting out the unvoting 800,000 is not enough to assure a win. He needs to look and feel like he has a plan, a presence and a profile.

    Too late to save 2013 – all we can hope is that he and his office and media team and caucus actually get their shit together in the new year.

    • lurgee 8.1
      11 December 2013 at 8:32 pm

      As I said when Shearer was leader, and people were wailing about his lack of progress: there isn’t really much the opposition leader can do at this stage. Most of the electorate are not thinking about who they might vote for. A lot of them will still say whoever the voted for in 2010 and won’t really think about changing until the election campaign kicks off. They’ll be mildly surprised to learn that Phil Goff has gone and will say things like, “Cunliffe? Is he the one who was in the UN? You mean he’s another one? They’re onto their third since 2010?!! Lordy!”

      The poll movement is probably just variation. Everything is pretty much as it was 6 months ago. That’s probably all you can discern from these figures.

      • gobsmacked 8.1.1
        11 December 2013 at 8:40 pm

        Cunliffe will do well in the election campaign. Shearer? Given the evidence, he would have flopped. But now, we’ll never know (thank God).

        Labour have the right leader, there’s a lot to improve about their strategy, but that’s a topic for another day (year).

        The Labour caucus could transform their party overnight, if they wanted to. Too many of them don’t, and Cunliffe can’t do much about that.

      • Ad 8.1.2
        11 December 2013 at 8:45 pm

        Since the election, and certainly since Shearer shuffled off, the poll oscillations have sharpened into longer peaks. That’s precisely because Cunliffe is built up for great set-pieces, such as the Labour conference in Christchurch, but then there’s no media follow-through.

        Result is a nasty surge of enthusiasm for the guy, followed by toughing, which is then replaced with another set piece. You can read Cunliffe’s ride very closely to the polls with that pattern.

        He’s a man, a good man, but apparently a man without a plan.

        And without a plan, he’s going to remain just a man.

        • Ad 8.1.2.1
          11 December 2013 at 8:56 pm

          Not ‘toughing’; ‘troughing’.

        • mickysavage 8.1.2.2
          11 December 2013 at 10:30 pm

          You are too impatient Ad!

          Give him time. When he sets his mind to stuff it happens, Christchurch East being an example.

          Labour does not need to peak now, it needs to get its organisation into shape and it needs to start cultivating a bit of momentum.

          National’s support is looking really shaky. It is a couple of inspired speeches away from turning.

          Agreed that David needs to get out more but he has had a real hard couple of months …

        • dave 8.1.2.3
          12 December 2013 at 5:55 pm

          we are a year away from the election i wouldnt expect massive jumps in the polls there going to bounce around all over the place but as we progress we will see those polls narrow up you can count on that we only need to get 2 percent of those 800 thousand voters to vote and slippery is a goner and for all those slaters out their WE WILL WIN !

    • Bearded Git 8.2
      12 December 2013 at 8:30 am

      “IMO Cunliffe looks unfocussed and peripheral. His apparent plan of relying on getting out the unvoting 800,000 is not enough to assure a win.”

      IMHO I think you are wrong Ad. The Nats have lost Dunedin (Hillside, Ag Research), Christchurch (earthquake, Christchurch East), Wellington (Key slagging it off), West Coast (miners compensation), East Cape (council reorganistaion).

      Key is too Auckland focussed. Getting some of the 800,000 out will seal the deal.

  9. lurgee 9
    11 December 2013 at 8:44 pm

    My hunch was always that Shearer was the sort of person who would react well to the pressure of a political campaign. Still, as you say, academic now.

    • Ad 9.1
      11 December 2013 at 8:48 pm

      Whoever is or was leader, on current trajectory the whole Labour Party is presuming that the one thing that will get them to power is a great mobilisation project of 800,000 enrolled non-vote.

      Anyone see the great volunteer resurgence (as distinct from a membership resurgence) that would enable this to happen? Not felt the call to arms yet?

      Someone needs to pick up the phone.
      The poll peaks tell us that should they call, we do answer.

      • Ake ake ake 9.1.1
        11 December 2013 at 9:08 pm

        Ad, may I say I agree with your comments so far on this page.

        There was some fireworks display after he won the leadership, a little bit of spurt after the Chch by-election, and then … ho-hum.

        And we’re now on the verge of the holidays and the end of the year. Any hope of anything else from the Leader of the Opposition’s office 2013? A pre-Christmas message? Maybe something with a bit of policy substance? Pale blue? Real red? Tickled pink?

      • mickysavage 9.1.2
        11 December 2013 at 10:31 pm

        Membership is surging Ad, the party needs to work out what to do now …

    • Colonial Viper 9.2
      11 December 2013 at 9:05 pm

      My hunch was always that Shearer was the sort of person who would react well to the pressure of a political campaign. Still, as you say, academic now.

      Ummm. Uhhhh. Ummmmm. Maybe. Yeah.

  10. Plan B 10
    11 December 2013 at 9:05 pm

    Best thing so far this week has to be DC standing next to JK . Dc was a head taller- made JK look like a midget. JK will be mad about that when he sees the pics.

    • Will@Welly 10.1
      11 December 2013 at 10:26 pm

      Always works in an election campaign. The smaller candidate virtually always comes off worse. After the first debate in 2011, when Goff called Key a liar, Key was on the back-foot. If Goff had been smart at “The Press” debate and countered Key’s “show me the money”, Key might have had second thoughts about being so smart. Unfortunately whoever the campaign manager was, let Goff down, and the rest is history. Smart thinking is needed.

  11. phillip ure 11
    11 December 2013 at 10:33 pm

    labour in parliament are giving little hint of being a coherent/focused/’ready’ political party..

    ..english got a zinger in against them the other day in parl…

    ..pointing out that they are a party that doesn’t know what it stands for..

    ..he was using it as a jibe on a particular policy..

    ..but it so rang true..for the party in general..

    ..at the time i noted you could hear the group-rustle..

    ..as the labour mp’s all moved uncomfortably in their seats..

    ..as this truth sheeted home..

    ..and given the t.i.n.a. pension-age-raise-threat..coupled with the alternate raise g.s.t. threat..

    ..with the t.p.p.-pimping..

    ..and labours’ refusal to discuss the plight of the really poor..ie beneficiaries..and to only ever talk about ‘the working poor’..

    (have you noticed that..?..once you do..it sticks out like great dane balls on a toy-poodle..)

    ..all seem to point to a party still lost in the neo-lib forest..

    ..phillip ure..

  12. Mike 12
    12 December 2013 at 7:19 am

    Enough is enough! Shearer has to go!!!!!!

    Oh hang on…..

  13. Philj 13
    12 December 2013 at 8:15 am

    I predict. Smart left voters will lean to green, apathetic leftist poor voters, IF they get to the voting booth, will vote Labour. Peeved right wingers might vote NZ First. Will it be enough to oust this crony pseudo ‘government’? It’s really big business in charge. Is it possible to have a government adjudged to be corrupt? Who, how could this come about? Now that NZ is, officially, the least corrupt country in the world! Hahaha.

    • Watching 13.1
      12 December 2013 at 11:15 am

      Now that NZ is, officially, the least corrupt country in the world!

      You need to sit down and discuss this with people that actually have worked in various countries around the world. You maybe surprised.

      • KJT 13.1.1
        12 December 2013 at 11:32 am

        Yes I have.

        Friends from India are shocked at the underhanded political crony capitalism.

        At least, they say, “in India it is out in the open”.

  14. bad12 14
    12 December 2013 at 8:18 am

    Interesting poll from Roy Morgan, David Parker gives NZFirst an oxygen boost with His ”there is no alternative other then to raise the age of superannuation entitlement”,

    That seems to have worked well, the ‘well’ of course depending upon your view of NZFirst, but in the sense i have that there is a large chunk of the Labour Caucus that would rather ‘work’ with Winston Peters than the Green Party then the ‘out of the blue’ announcement by Parker about superannuation makes perfect sense,(and yes perhaps i am attaching to the ‘right wing’ of the Labour Caucus a far too high ability to engage in machiavellian politics than they actually possess),

    Being a Green Party member i am more than happy with the upwardly mobile % the Party has in the latest Roy Morgan,(tho i am not yet at the point of whacking an extra herbal tea bag into the pot), it’s really a bit of a head scratch where political parties are usually spanked in such polls after periods of internal party dissent spilling into the public arena as has recently occurred with the Green Party candidate wilfully shoving His foot into various of his own orifice, each more painful than the other, in a vain ‘leadership challenge’ that from here seemed to have only the intent of ‘heading off’ some much needed Party disciplinary action followed closely with an abject public apology for His behavior to Party leader Metiria Turei,

    But, in this instance the Green Party has suffered a reverse reaction from the voting public with a nice bounce in the latest Roy Morgan and i am more than happy with the Party heading for 15% of the popular vote, part of this bounce my opinion would say is from Labour’s lack of a clear cohesive narrative,

    With numbers as good as these,and i have a hope that such numbers will hold up through an election as opposed to a belief as the Green Party usually polls higher than it’s actual vote on the day, Hone Harawira’s Mana Party are still looking likely to be getting my Party vote as a strategic move in attempting to provide an extra MP for Mana…

  15. BM 15
    12 December 2013 at 8:46 am

    Jeez, the rich prick from Herne Bay won’t be happy with that.

    Labour’s shed something like 20% of it’s support in the last couple of months, what gone wrong.?

  16. mac1 16
    12 December 2013 at 8:56 am

    Nothing wrong with the opposition level -pegging with the government eleven months out from an election especially when the trend for the government is down and the trend for the opposition is up, BM. There’s a whole bunch of rich pricks, to use your words, who are not all happy with that, and will be using all their tricks to try and turn that trend around.

    Your ‘rich prick’ jibe is just one of them. Better though when stated without basic literacy flaws.

    • BM 16.1
      12 December 2013 at 9:05 am

      I disagree, you need new glasses boyo

      It’s the complete opposite, Labour trending down, National trending up.

      Roy Morgan has always favored the left so this is a great result for National going into election year, they’ll be stoked.

      • framu 16.1.1
        12 December 2013 at 9:15 am

        its MMP though isnt it

        its not the individual numbers that matter – especially when nat has killed off all its possible coalition partners, bar guess who

        im not claiming any kind of victory here, just noting that focusing on nat vs lab alone doesnt actually tell you anything accurate

        • BM 16.1.1.1
          12 December 2013 at 9:35 am

          Think you’re going to find the greens will become an albatross around the neck of Labour.

          Next year you’re going to have Cunliffe saying stuff to appeal to the middle and you’re going to have Norman getting all extreme saying the polar opposite.

          And the voters will be like “WTF, who’s in charge?, I know if I vote Labour I get the Greens, one guy’s saying one thing and the other guy’s saying something completely different, who do I believe, who’s telling the truth?”

          Unless the Greens are just there to make up the numbers, the next election will be a complete write off for the left, having two roughly equal sized left parties competing for power, the ego’s of both Norman and Cunliffe will clash like nothing else, destroying any chance of the left being elected.

          Key will look on acting all assured and in control, pointing out the infighting on the other side.
          Game, set and match, again to the blue team.

          • framu 16.1.1.1.1
            12 December 2013 at 10:26 am

            yeah some of us dont treat politics as some hive mind thing and can figure out that the two parties can agree and disagree without the whole house of cards collapsing

            all youve done there is show up your own woeful ignorance of other people. Your also pretty ignorant of green politicians and green voters – but no surprises there

            dont you think that the greens and labour have already been down that line of thought? (well maybe not shane jones)

            havent you noticed that already both parties are avoiding such conflicts and the ones sounding shrill is you hero, unidentified guest?

            you really do inhabit some strange alternate reality dont you

            but back to my actual point – “im not claiming any kind of victory here, just noting that focusing on nat vs lab alone doesnt actually tell you anything accurate” – you do understand that right?

            • Watching 16.1.1.1.1.1
              12 December 2013 at 11:46 am

              yeah some of us dont treat politics as some hive mind thing and can figure out that the two parties can agree and disagree without the whole house of cards collapsing

              Not sure if I agree with that statement. It true that political activists would say what is the issue, and in reality you are correct. However, IMO most of the population has little interest in the comings and going of political parties, and just want stable government with someone in charge, & maybe BM has a point.

              With Labour 30 % and Greens 15% we are entering new territory. The Greens are not a 3 seat party that Key has used or for that matter Clarke also used as an ‘alternative’ option to get over the line. The Greens will be a powerful block in any Labour led government regardless of the type of the coalition agreement between them.

              The seed has already been planted by Key that Norman has a lot of oxygen, and I expect that Key will attempt to create a line about who is really in charge. It’s an easy one liner to communicate a big message.

              havent you noticed that already both parties are avoiding such conflicts and the ones sounding shrill is you hero

              Wait until they get into power & see how it this works under pressure – who know what will happen when DC say NO to the Greens.

              • framu …
                12 December 2013 at 12:07 pm

                true enough – but to put it in BBQ speak – does it matter of dave and russ dont always agree?

                yep – key will do exactly that – but that relies upon the cult of key. The more he does it, the more he starts to turn people off – and once youve dropped the key your not picking it up again. IE: it would have worked previously, but the more he does it and the longer national are in power the faster and faster it loses its effect, exponentially so. The only question is have we reached that point?

                While i agree that many people are fairly switched off politically and just want stable govt, i think that many get the general thrust of MMP – that no two parties are exactly the same, its not a big deal and there are worse parties than the greens who have been giving a shot before

                And with regards to what happens after – the greens do have pretty good track record behaviour wise in parliament – labour are, of course, anyones guess.

                Its never stopped other parties with worse track records has it?

          • mac1 16.1.1.1.2
            12 December 2013 at 10:30 am

            Key looking all in control having to depend on two very wobbly parties and a tea-party created ACT member bound for court and conviction.

            Key looking in control having to court Colin Craig and the Conservatives and portray them as being a reasonable and acceptable coalition partner.

            Key looking in control while flailing about looking for his backers to create a new right wing party.

            Key looking in control whilst being the mockery of the world’s press- the unidentified guest who knows not how to conduct himself as befits a solemn occasion, but prefers to simper alongside his powerful superior.

            Key looking in control while not remembering how he thought about the most significant issue in 1981 and of that generation.

            Key looking in control while going against the wishes of two thirds of the electors in selling state assets.

            Key looking in control while logging up a catalogue of lies, memory lapses and deceptions that beggars even the politically blase.

            That John Key?

            • Arfamo 16.1.1.1.2.1
              12 December 2013 at 10:34 am

              Hang on. I remember that bloke. Didn’t he mug your brother?

              • mac1 …
                12 December 2013 at 11:00 am

                This brother speaking here, Arfamo?

                “Yeah, I dunno officer. He snuck up on me from behind, out of nowhere. He was wearing a pinstrip suit and a blue tie.”

                Perhaps, but some of us were mugged at the ballot box by him.

                • Arfamo …
                  12 December 2013 at 11:03 am

                  Lol. Yup. Nz is full of victims mugged by this faceless Soprano. We get mugged at the petrol pump, the supermarket, paying our car registration fees, power bills, telephone bills, appealing against government agency decisions, collecting prescriptions (if you can afford to pick them up after paying the doctor)…

                  They’ll be charging a fee for voting in elections next, I imagine.

          • Craig Y 16.1.1.1.3
            13 December 2013 at 12:10 pm

            Sorry, no. What about Germany? Look at the stability of the German Social Democrat/Green federal governments in the Noughties.

      • bad12 16.1.2
        12 December 2013 at 9:18 am

        BM, that argument is spurious when you consider that the Green Party has ‘picked up’ the % of the vote Labour has ‘lost’ in the current Roy Morgan poll,

        i cannot quite imagine Winston Peters entering a coalition with the National Party after all the damage inflicted upon NZFirst by previous attacks by the Tories, although i can ‘see’ a 2 week period,(or longer),after the 2014 election where Winston forces the National Caucus from Slippery the PM down to publicly humiliate themselves in a public display of fawning arse-kissing befor He tells them to assume the position…

      • mac1 16.1.3
        12 December 2013 at 9:22 am

        “Roy Morgan has always favored the left”

        It also has been the most accurate.

      • KJT 16.1.4
        12 December 2013 at 9:43 am

        Votes going to the Greens. Surprise!

        Hardly an indication of votes heading for the , so called, middle.

      • mac1 16.1.5
        12 December 2013 at 12:48 pm

        Note, BM, I spoke of opposition and government, not Labour and National. Nice try with the reframing of the argument.

        Try these figures for size and then talk about trends post election.

        http://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll/new-zealand/government-v-opposition

  17. One Anonymous Knucklehead 17
    12 December 2013 at 2:47 pm

    How many times does it have to be said that you might just as well examine tea-leaves than extrapolate meaning from a single poll?

    I note that if this is a “low spike” on the graph it is higher than the previous seven similar features, and is entirely consistent with a continuing rising trend. Be nice if it were steeper but.

    • McFlock 17.1
      12 December 2013 at 6:06 pm

      +1

      haters gonna hate
      tories gonna gloat
      chicken littles gonna panic.

      beginning of 2012, nat routinely beat labgreen totals.
      Now it’s the other way around.

  18. Brett Dale 18
    13 December 2013 at 3:44 pm

    Great, so its going to be temana and the conservative party who will determine who becomes government.

    FMMP

  19. Digmen1 19
    14 December 2013 at 10:03 am

    The heading should have been Labour drops 3%

    And are Labour and the Green a formal coalition ?
    the largest party gets first chance to form a government.

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