Written By:
Ben Clark - Date published:
8:05 am, November 12th, 2016 - 116 comments
Categories: Politics, us politics -
Tags: lessons
What can we learn from the election of Donald J Drumpf?
Not a huge amount. And would the lessons be completely different with just a small adjustment in a few states?
I guess one thing is: Don’t neglect your base. That’s where your vote is coming from, not your activists. You need both, mind… so you can’t concentrate on the issues of one to the detriment of the other.
Be bold – Trump’s Mexican Wall: infeasible, indefensible but clearly showed a vision. Not one I share, as it’s a vision of fear of the other, but it got people fired up for him, and it got his message shared and out there. It’s a difficult balance to strike mind, when you have the media quibbling about your policy being wrong if the costings are a few million out, versus Trump’s Wall that’d be 10s of billions. But sometimes, maybe, screw the detail, don’t give the oxygen to those concerns, stay on the front foot of your vision to the people…
Cater to prejudices? It’s hard on the left, when you want love to trump hate; hope to beat fear. It’s tempting to go for the cynical easy votes, but it’s most important to Stay True to you Brand – stick with Be Bold, and Authentic.
While you’re on that Prejudice / Bold vibe, and bypassing the media’s attention to detail: was it facebook wot won it? You need to get into people’s bubble. Facebook is now the biggest news source, so you want to be shared. With the change in broadcasting allocation for 2017, watch for your feed to be fed (at a price) with videos parties are hoping to be catchy, and for you to share into the less-informeds timelines. Zuckerburg will be loving it.
Have ‘charisma‘ and ‘relate to the common man‘. Easy to say, but no-one knows how this works. Neither Nigel Farage or Trump have any connection to (or any really knowledge of) the poor or working class (their backgrounds are privilege personified); they’re not pretty; they have no great oratory… but somehow they hit the right notes with the natives (pays to be uncouth?). This ‘connection’ with the ‘common people’ is probably the most powerful thing, but not really helpful as you don’t seem to be able to learn it…
Finally, a big lesson from the US, and Brexit for that matter – there’s a lot of ‘experts’ on politics – but they don’t really know. While we need to get people to reject less often actual experts (eg climate change); we also need to reject pundits and talking heads more. And listen to a diversity of voices across viewpoints, even more than across identities (but that’s probably not me on either score!)
This explains the lessons the left must learn.
It is the best message I have heard about Trump’s election.
Here, this is appropriate. The fact that you intruded on people’s grief and put it into the Recovery room, is something that I won’t forget in a hurry, Mr Paul.
Recovery room??
https://thestandard.org.nz/post-election-recovery-salon/
Russell Brand also has a simlilar perspective.
He grew in Greys, a working class town in Essex.
His reflections on Brexit and Trump’s election are most perceptive.
+1
Another one for Trump, once you have established your message, its no longer the song, its the singer. ( Thats what the big rallies are about)
And this observation from the travelling press pool:
“Behold, Trump said to his fans, I’ve rounded up a passel of those elites you detest. And I’ve caged them for you! Allow me to belittle them for your delight. Here, now you take a turn—go ahead, have at it! Do it again, don’t be shy! Under President Trump, the other elites will be in cages, too. We’ll lock them up, just like the chant goes. Just like you wanted. You’ll be their captors.”
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/11/on_the_trail_for_the_final_week_of_the_trump_campaign.html
Michael Moore also, like Brand, grew up in a white working class town, Flint in Michigan.
He understands why the working class of the US have rebelled against the Democrats. Like Labour in the UK and New Zeland, they have ignored the working class since the 1980s.
Moore or less. There’s always the possibility than defeat will benefit the Democrats in the long term.
http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/movies/la-et-mn-michael-moore-interview-donald-trump-election-20161111-story.html
John Pilger explains the events as no-one else could.
He castigates above all the media for their role as puppets of the establishment.
This interview will teach you more than months of listening to the Guardian, RNZ and the BBC. Those ‘liberal’ media outlets have also been captured.
One lesson I hope we are going to learn:
Trump is proposing tax cuts, but the US finance media is saying that there will be lot of debate about that, given that it will create bigger deficits.
Nek minute, in 2017, Key & English trot out the hint of tax cuts here, as their election offering.
Unlike previous such election campaigns, though, this time I think the message might get caught up in the US debate, and backfire, leaving National looking like Trump mini-mes and with no other real cornerstone of election promises.
Trump’s speaking of unity across Americans might get in the way of Key’s targeting of certain groups to benefit from the Nats.
I think the biggest error people, media mostly, is doing, is taking Trump at what he says. Trump promised to pay his workers. Trump prizes loyalty, thats the only benchmark i have yet seen. So those Republicians in Congress who broke ranks better watch their backs. Ryan wont last as Congressian majority leader, well unless he got the okay from Trump to dump on him in the campaign, unlikely.
No, stop your whinninh, its not about talkng the idiot Trump down, its about watching him most likely fail to pay his Trump republicians base. Trump is not going to pander to elite Republicians because they want something. Trump, whether taking
advice or not will do whateve he likes.
So no wall, no rightwing justice, no dumping illegals over the wall, its all Trump now, and please as Republicians show disloyalty coz your fired if you do, TRump voters will burn you at the next election, if the party does not first.
Trump walked into the Republician party, its doors wide open, its politicians in their ivory towers looking down on everyone, he then downed his pants andtook a giant shit. Trump is the face of the real moral majority, that puts real kids suffering, not unborn ones, first. And sure he’ll fail, like he has so far, and the Trump Republicians will vote for another vile leader who gets it.
Resist rape culture and fascism. Get money out of politics. Invest heavily in education. Get in the faces of right wing well-poisoners in your community.
Will do.
Voting just to say “Fuck you!” may make you feel good for a moment, but people suffer. Populism and a lynch mob mentality is not democracy, it is its opposite.
Surges in racism:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/donald-trump-wins-racist-racism-race-hate-immigrants-nigel-farage-ukip-brexit-post-referendum-a7407951.html
“Grab her by the p*ssy” legitimises sexual assault, blackface, rape threat…
http://www.knowable.com/a/t1/some-of-the-horrific-acts-that-happened-in-the-short-time-since-trump-became-pre?utm_content=inf_4_3136_2&tse_id=INF_a35b43b0a83111e6ae75d71756b4e6b3
A tonic from Isaac Asimov on ‘the cult of ignorance’:
http://aphelis.net/cult-ignorance-isaac-asimov-1980/
There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that “my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.”
Horrific alright. Ladies and gentlemen: Donald Trump’s America.
The Trump win was a waifer thin. Having lost the popular vote, the quantising present in the electoral college permitted the peoples’ choice to be reversed. The mechanics of the electoral college are at odds with the claim for the USA to be the greatest democracy.
The GOP understood this opportunity and have focussed on disenfranchising voters in swing states. This permitted a gap to open between polling of people who think they can vote versus the people who can actually vote v’s the people who actually vote.
The methods of disenfranchising voters start with increasing the hoops people have to go through to enrol, through to striking out enrolled voters who have the same name (usually race based) through to requiring extravagant voter id requirements.
Structural modifications of the voter base go on unseen and and over extended periods of time.
The analysis on voter behaviour needs to lensed through this. Claiming that one group of voters supported this candidate or that candidate because of this policy or characteristic may be possible, but the level of research needed to make a claim justified cannot be done in a few hours or a few days.
Trump won over towns and counties which have voted Democrat since the 1970s and 1980s.
Call his victory “wafer thin” if you like, but you’ll miss the once in a generation political brilliance of what he has accomplished.
Last time was Reagan.
I am not sure what the “political brilliance” is meant to be describing. Is it slipping the shaved dice onto the table, or is it rolling the shaved dice, or is it both?
It’s doing it in plain sight under the noses of the Wall St casino/globalist establishment.
BTW I think that late in the day, the Deep State made a close call that Trump would be better than Clinton for what they need – which is a change in direction.
That contradicts what you were saying about towns and counties that flipped from reliable Democrat to GOP.
It was of course a small shift as those places still would have had fairly large GOP votes.
Comparing small counties votes for Obama and Clinton show it was roughly 5% change. How much of that was due to the Dems falling vote being much larger than the GOPs slight fall in voter turnout we dont yet know.
How was the Deep state reaching that 5%?
So trump is now part of this deep state what a surprise.
I don’t think the concept of “the Deep State” extends to it somehow magically pushing Trump over the line in electoral college votes.
Trump won electoral college votes, simply because he won county votes in states that matter. He won those because individuals voted for him, for various reasons. No “Deep State” required to explain that.
The “Deep State”, to the extent that it is real at all, will be of importance when Trump acts as President. Say, when he tries to increase (or decrease) the level of drone assassinations, or mobilizes (or refuses to mobilize) the National Guard to shift protesters outside the White House, or attempts to appoint some lunatic or another to the Supreme Court, or enters (or refuses to enter) the identification codes from his nuclear biscuit. Influencing what actually then happens in those sorts of circumstances is more in the realm of the “Deep State’s” influence.
Lessons?
It’s still “a man’s world” that we live in.
(Don’t have to flame me for that .. I’m sorta kinda half wryly joking…. or not)
Just look at the Slate article saying that white women ‘betrayed the sisterhood’ by supporting Trump. Nasty stuff.
Thanks CV. Appreciate that.
When I first read your comment, I thought you understood that gender may have been one factor influencing voting. Stoopid me.
Your preferred candidate was Liz Warren, and we in Aotearoa had Helen Clark, so it may not be obvious to you, but I do believe it was one significant factor throughout the run-up and then in voting. (Note that the successful candidate had felt it necessary to tell people about the claimed size of his ‘wherever’.)
That Slate article you refer to is someone’s expression of anger and disappointment, and I don’t necessarily agree with all of it, but I wonder if there is some truth in this bit: Most white women still identify more with white men than they do with black women, Latina women, Muslim women, transwomen, and every other woman who will have good reason to fear for her physical safety under a Trump regime. http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2016/11/09/white_women_sold_out_the_sisterhood_and_the_world_by_voting_for_trump.html
Gender was absolutely a factor in the election results and in the election campaign. The Clinton team made it a tent pole of their campaign and I am fine with her choice to do that as a reality of political life.
Clinton feminists publicly told other women that it was their duty to support Hillary Clinton, for instance.
The exit poll results I saw suggested that 3x more black men than black women voted for Trump. Trump, as I previously noted, got massive support from white males, regardless of education level.
I haven’t seen the stats yet but I would not be surprised if almost 40% of Latino men supported Trump.
So yes I agree with you, gender was a major factor in this election.
That was absolutely typical Trump behaviour and I was not surprised.
Ok. Thanks.
You could paint a rock rainbow colours, call it rocky, campaign on tearing down the halls of power, and it would have a good chance to win.
why?
What we learned?
1/ That Clintonian/Blairite politics is completely, certifiably, totally, dead and from it’s grave it’s got two hands grasped around the ankle and is tugging hard at the establishment mainstream social democratic parties of the west.
Clintonism/Blairism won power on a simple formula. Sell out to the monied neoliberal roadblocks to power, rebrand “the left” as those things that are the concerns of urban middle class liberals, and cynically take it’s mass base of blue collar support for granted as having nowhere else to go. That electoral alliance is well and truly shattered, because the GFC and inequality has wrecked the legitimacy of the neoliberal prescription, the liberal middle class has been exposed as hopelessly intolerant to dissenting values, and the blue collar base has discovered in has, in fact got a choice – the popular right. The lesson for the NZ Labour party should be that positioning yourself as a party of middle class professional politicians selling themselves as mild neoliberal managerialists is a recipe for electoral disaster. Unfortunately, Labour is still completely becalmed in the 1990s and shows little sign of shaking itself out of its intellectual torpor anytime soon.
2/ the one Clintonian/Blairite claim to legitimacy for leadership of the left – electoral success – has been dealt a final, fatal blow. They are history, yesterdays fish and chip paper. Pagani and Quinn and their like here in NZ should now either just shut the fuck up or go and join National.
3/ One hundred years on, globalism and neoliberalism is painfully discovering the bitter truth socialism discovered in 1914 – that nativism, nationalism and right wing populism are far, far more powerful forces when awakened than than neoliberalism and globalism will ever be. At the moment, the neolib capitalists think they can control the popular right. Time will tell. They have thought the same thing about a great many right wing strongmen and their record of being correct is, *ahem*, patchy.
4/ For all the hand wringing about identity politics, Americans still largely voted more for economic reasons than they did for race or gender. They voted against more of the economic same same but different and for someone who promised to bring back decent jobs via an explicit rejection of the neoliberal establishments globalist agenda. Again, the lesson for Labour in NZ should be obvious.
5/ The Democrats learned the hard way certain old school political truisms, like don’t be so arrogant as to pick a candidate that is deeply unpopular and represents a failed past, in an election the party leader MUST be more or equally popular than his or her opponent, don’t take your base for granted, and don’t let your left wing party get hijacked by liberal middle class know it alls, and listen to the voters.
The Republicans were forced by Trump to learn these lessons faster than the Democrats.
Let’s see if National can learn these lessons faster than Labour. I’m betting yes, as Labour is structurally and culturally incapable of ideological change at this point.
Wouldn’t you think there latest stuff’s a move in that direction RE: labour, and don’t you have to start somewhere?
Election is less than 12 months away. So yes you have to start some where and at some time. But the runway remaining is very short.
Agreed, frankly it’s a small step in that direction, and all there policy was made PT.(pre trump).
Now I am hoping it gave them a kick in the mind.
For all the hand wringing about identity politics, Americans still largely voted more for economic reasons than they did for race or gender.
The strong strand of white male supremacism that was overt in the campaign and afterwards among Trump’s cultists indicates that “identity politics” played a major part in many people’s decision to vote for him – it is white (or orange) male identity politics.
The Clinton Campaign pushed identity politics and gender politics as a major driver of the election and of judgement on the candidates. And they got their wish that it be decisive in the final result.
White women overall, but especially those without College degrees, disliked Clinton enough to vote for Trump in droves.
The overt racism of Trump’s cultists and their abuse of liberals who support minority rights as “race traitors” is indisputable.
Women can be racists too, and hate other women – surprise, the sisterhood is not the Borg!
Also indisputable is ongoing lefty liberal and MSM bullying, intimidation and shaming of Trump supporters.
So these people gave up trying to tell the MSM and pollsters who they were supporting and why, and simply voted on the day.
I am in awe of your exceptional mind-reading powers. Please share your secret with the world!
Sure, plenty of burning crosses planted by liberals, right? Plenty of KKK endorsements for them, right? Plenty of incitements to violence and assassination by H at her rallies, right?
And you and your fellow cultists just had your feelings hurt while ignoring the violence being perpetrated by Trump supporters right now.
Exactly proportional, right?
Is your p*ssy going to get grabbed, are you going to get bashed because you’re gay, are you going to have your hijab torn off?
You poor little darling crybaby.
Yeah, we shouldn’t shame Trumpies, they’re managing to do it to themselves.
/
The film The Childhood of a Leader metaphorically presents the roots of fascism as a tantrum by a narcissistic child. CV seems to be determined to prove that point by constantly harping on about his hurt feelings when other people are suffering real violence.
http://www.avclub.com/review/fascism-brat-childhood-leader-239842
Pagani and Quinn and their like here in NZ should now either just shut the fuck up or go and join National.
And Captain Mumblefuck, Nash and Parker too please.
+1
I think your analysis is spot-on Sanctuary, particularly point 1. And I think the worst thing Labour could do is to look for new ways of pitching that same old model.
Here’s a suggestion, and I think it has come up as a talking point before. Set out a policy to rebuild our manufacturing to the level that would be needed to get us through a disaster. This idea has been taken up in Australia, where it has been pushed by Nick Xenophon, and it is a good one. Such a move would not be seen as heretical by a Trump presidency (assuming he is as good as his word), especially in its early days. It would allow room for Labour to reconnect with its working class base, would give common cause with NZ first and, if successful, would give us a solid base from which to conduct future negotiations. Not to mention, it would mean a step away from housing speculation toward making stuff and doing stuff.
Yep me and my mates have been thinking along these lines for a while.
I hadn’t been aware of that. Thanks for the tip.
Unfortunately I cannot find a relevant link, but did hear Xenophon speaking along those lines in the build-up to the July election, when I was in Sydney. And the general idea is most certainly on the radar in Australia.
And, another take on things.
I’m sensing a pattern here..
George Soros colour revolution technology now being imported and used in the USA.
Have ‘charisma‘ and ‘relate to the common man‘. Easy to say, but no-one knows how this works. Neither Nigel Farage or Trump have any connection to (or any really knowledge of)
If you have to ask that question, no wonder the left is struggling, is there not any one amongst your ranks that has ever worked with their hands or around people that do physical work.?
The working class they’re such a mystery 🙄
As for Trump, if you knew anything about him, you’d know he made most of his money in property development
He was constantly down on the building sites interacting with all the trades guys, he talking to them, they talking to him.
He’s probably the most connected to the working man a politician being for a long time.
Holy bullshit Batman. He employs site managers you pillock.
How’s the all star white cabinet line up of national doing BM?
Who did YOU support in the 1980 spring bok Tour and previous, aparetheid we stand beside you, national party endorsed rugby tours of SA.
God all the SA’s flocked to NZ, I wonder what made them want to come here.
I’ve had a look, the Herald media etc, White’s only, just you don’t advertise the fact anymore, and con a few ethnics to make you look, well, need I go on.
bugger PC, calling it as I see it from now on.
Not sure what you’re rambling on about ?
Anyway, Richie Go read his first book , The art of the deal.
thats the thing about writing your own book – you get to tell your story as you want others to see it
He didn’t write it, though he likes to pretend he did. See Rhino’s link below. The author Tony Schwartz spent 18 months with him, and so probably has a better understanding of Trump than most.
Schwartz says he feels regret for putting lipstick on a pig – the book is largely a spin piece. And that he would like to rename it “The Sociopath”. And that he rates President Donald’s chances of ending civilization as “excellent”.
Going on about..
That your here, supporting racists and bigots, whether it’s leaving a dying Moari lady with 2 kids in prison to rot, Until public pressure got too much, to the old SA apartheid rugby tour, nothings changed.
and it’s changed my perception of you lot, sorry. I think your racists until you can show me why your not, if that’s even possible anymore.
as for your Trumps a site work experienced bloke, don’t talk shit.
Tours around his construction sites does not the man a tradesman, make.
You mean the one that was ghostwritten, by a writer who now despises Trump?
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/07/25/donald-trumps-ghostwriter-tells-all
As far as we know, Trump has never written anything longer than 130 characters.
Ok, let me get this right. You’re not working class. You’re chastising people in a group that includes working class people for none of them knowing how to relate to working class people. Going by your question, I take it that you don’t actually talk to the working class people on TS (or listen to them). And then you cite Trump and tell us you take your information about Trump from what Trump says about himself?
It’s alright matey, we get it, you think the master class are the best people to understand those that work with their hands.
That comment was directed at Ben Clark, not the people posting here.
From what I’ve read, Ben is part of the Labour party machine, so having him commenting about what a mystery ” being able to relate to the common man” is, did rather surprise me.
Especially when the labour party is supposed to represent the working class, obviously the party is screaming out for people more connected to it’s constituents.
Where have you been hiding the last 3-4 decades? /sarc
2 things:
1/ while I stood in 2011 for Labour in the North Shore, I’m not sure whether being a local party member makes me “part of the machine”.
2/ you’ve misinterpreted what I’ve written anyway. I personally make no claim to be proper ‘working class’, but being a labourer doesn’t mean that suddenly an entire social class will feel you reach them with what you say. And despite what many say, there are plenty of working class people still in the Labour party, it’s not just ‘intellectuals’.
I think Trump has far less personal connection or experience of working class life than me, despite what you say, and I think the union who represents some of his casino workers would vehemently disagree with you. Farage, like Trump, came through elite schools and was shielded from actually having to mix with ‘common people’. But that doesn’t stop a large chunk of the population feeling they relate to their words.
Charisma / X-factor / whatever you want to call it, seemingly can’t be taught, which may well be a good thing or everyone would be at it. But it has nowt to do with an actual connection.
Sincerity – once you can fake that, you’ve got it made.
Yeah Richie, there’s so much to learn from ghost written works of fiction.
Scrubbed plenty of toilets in my time. Learned welding and carpentry. Worked in workshops making furniture and set construction. I went through architecture school and spent a lot of time gaining practical construction experience alongside management work. Also got degrees in industrial design and English (that’s what you can do in a socialist state – climb a ladder). Taught writing to ex convicts and addicts among others. Now I’m self-employed and I do volunteer work helping refugees learn English.
Father was a railway cadet, rugby league player representing NZ, travelling salesman, furniture store manager; grandfather was a porter; great grandfather a coal miner. Brothers are an engineer and a farm worker. Most of my extended family is in farm work.
That’s just me. I’m sure there are plenty of others here to refute your silly caricature.
He’s probably the most connected to the working man a politician being for a long time.
Leeches are very well connected to their prey.
Leeches are very well connected to their prey.
Indeed.
“I’m sure there are plenty of others here to refute your silly caricature”
Yup. I’m one
But no matter, the working class are stereotyped as lazy dumbarses (except when populists want something – then we’re reverentially the ‘hard-working “common man” – even if we’re women – who are speaking up’) who will follow the first authoritarian leader that will promise us the world, if we bother to vote at all.
Odd that the charisma and common touch points highlight Farage and Trump, but fails to nominate Key who is in the same vein. Obviously Key didn’t have a privileged upbringing – which he weaves into his backstory – but he’s still a millionaire out of touch with the experiences of every day people in this country who can’t afford a house or rent.
“If we don’t confront what’s happened here, we’re looking at another 10, 20 years”
Put away all your your after the fact finger pointing, the guy who did predict Trump win, says it has nothing to do with the candidates
The Prediction Professor:
“But a Washington-based professor insisted that Trump was lined up for a win – based on the idea that elections are “primarily a reflection on the performance of the party in power.”
Professor Allan Lichtman uses a historically-based system of what he calls “keys” to predict election results ahead of time. In our conversations in September and October, he outlined how President Barack Obama’s second term set the Democrats up for a tight race, and his keys tipped the balance in Trump’s favour, even if just barely.”
a set of 13 true/false questions decides it , not Trumps Wall or Hillarys Emails
The keys, which are explained in depth in Lichtman’s book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016” are:
Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/
It’s easy to have predictions seem correct when you choose both sides to win (eg in August):
http://dailybruin.com/2016/08/15/experts-predict-clinton-win-during-hammer-museum-lecture-2/
Lichtman’s claim to three decades of accuracy rests on Gore having won the popular vote in 2000 and so “really” being the winner. But for that to be the case, then since Clinton won the popular vote this time, he should have stuck with her (or gone for Bush in 2000).
http://m.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11746870
Donald Trump’s tactics for the election had quite a lot in common with those of Adolf Hitler in the 1930s.
Now before the trolls start screeching I say first that I am not comparing the personal Trump to the personal Hitler, only the way they campaigned, and not necessarily on everything.
Trump and Hitler both conducted vigorous mass rally in-your-face style campaigning, openly taunting and insulting their opponents. They said what they liked and cared little about offending anyone
Both had contempt for their current democratic systems. Hitler wanted to destroy it completely, whilst Trump has implied that he owes the Republican party nothing and he will choose his own path, using the Republican Party only when it suits him. It seems he will choose government officials largely on the basis of personal loyalty rather than ability. Hitler did this too.
Both made extravagant promises that were difficult to believe, and yet people believed them because they wanted to believe them. Hitler actually achieved many of them, albeit it temporarily at a terribly high cost, whilst with Trump we don’t know yet.
Both openly campaigned on division in society rather than the conventional wisdom of unifying a country by bringing people together.
Both appealed to the worst aspects of Nationalism, both blamed foreign powers and foreigners for most of their country’s troubles.
Both were implicitly backed by the Army
Both stressed the need to make their countries respected (or feared) internationally, not necessarily by peaceful means.
Not much difference from most politicians, then!
The Trump Blueprint?
Repeat simple messages over and over again that stir emotion and have an underlying mantra/theme/slogan.
In NZ this could possibly be about the unfairness of the current system with respect to housing, wages, environment and inequality.
Don’t promote policy specifics, identify the perceived wrongs (or create them) and convince people you will correct them. (Muldoon was good at this)
Say it with passion as that is what is required to get out the missing million required for the Left to win
There you go, easy!
That is what I have argued wrt housing Peter. But the same technique could be used for other perceived wrongs. https://medium.com/@brendon_harre/housing-affordability-the-question-is-why-not-how-or-what-cefffd2f9924#.fzghqzwuf
The Democrats and Labour have ignored more than their base – they’ve ignored all the people who were worse off under neo-liberalism and simply promised more of it. Trump promised to get rid of it and bring manufacturing and other high paying jobs and better education back.
Labour needs to be doing the same:
Get rid of the FTAs – people know that these things are doing them harm. Trade isn’t bad but trading with countries that have standards far below ours undercuts our own living standards.
Free education. If people aren’t in work then they should be getting an education. Labour’s Work for the Dole scheme is better than what we have but it’s still not good enough. Education is something that needs to be seen as ongoing. Not as something that you finish while young and that’s it.
Build up the infrastructure to support manufacturing here in NZ from NZ resources. We should not be exporting raw logs, or raw iron sand (an actual ban on exporting raw resources is probably a good idea). And if that means the government building the necessary factories then so be it (Actually, this is exactly what the government should do – and then charge a simple, small fee for anything that anyone wants produced).
They spoke simply and directly addressed the issues that people saw as the problem. Labour have been ignoring those issues to a large degree.
I recall the Labour gathering in New Lynn a few months back with Little speaking. Some of his words indicated that Labour were about to announce a full ban of offshore buying of houses and that got him a massive round of applause. And then he went on and talked about restrictions instead and that shut people up real fast. Thing is, I’m sure that Little did notice the difference at the time but labour has continued to just give us more offshore sales, more of the bloody same.
People don’t want more of the same as they know it doesn’t work.
The lesson to learn is you cannot ignore your base, fail to represent them, ignore there stories, expose them to all the downsides in the economy and none of the up. This is what the Democrats have done in the US for 30 odd years. The result is there base did not vote, despite massive fundraising and the most organised get out the vote campaign ever. It was the Democrats vote falling not Trumps rising (in comparison to previous elections) which did it. I wrote more about this at the end of the article here. https://medium.com/@brendon_harre/housing-affordability-on-the-ground-8639297432e4#.kjhyzre5h
In the US the working and middle classes have become a precarious existence -they teeter over the abyss -where a restructure a work or ill health can push you over. In NZ we thankfully have a safety net for health and a threadbare one for employment -but it is housing where the gaps are the largest.
It is for this reason a few weeks back I wrote the following introduction in an article for Interest.co.nz.
“Housing affordability in New Zealand and in many other places around the world is getting worse.
This exposes difficult choices. If the value of New Zealand’s housing continues to rise, if there is no price correction, this will widen the socio-economic divide.
The property owners, the landed gentry will benefit and those without property wealth will suffer.
Long term, refusing to acknowledge this widening socio-economic divide means the chances of some sort of radical revolutionary response rises.
Unlikely in this modern day, to be guillotine wielding revolutionaries of the Parisian type – more likely to be something like the anti-establishment outburst of the Brexit or Trump variety.”
http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/84331/brendon-harre-says-become-fairer-society-we-should-learn-lessons-earlier-struggles
I wasn’t specifically predicting Trump would be elected president -I thought he wouldn’t get over the line. But a clear headed look at history shows some type revolution is on the cards.
QFT
One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship.
George Orwell
+ 1 to George Orwell and thanks rhinocrates for the excellent quote
Interesting excerpt from Selena Zito
“The 70-year-old Republican nominee took his time walking from the green room toward the stage. He stopped to chat with the waiters, service workers, police officers, and other convention staffers facilitating the event. There were no selfies, no glad-handing for votes, no trailing television cameras. Out of view of the press, Trump warmly greets everyone he sees, asks how they are, and, when he can, asks for their names and what they do.
“I am blown away!” said one worker, an African American man who asked for anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak to the press. “The man I just saw there talking to people is nothing like what I’ve seen, day in and day out, in the news.”
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/trump-makes-his-case-in-pittsburgh/501335/
Thanks for this. Aside from his politics, IMO like GW, Trump as an ordinary down to earth person has been consistently underestimated.
My point being that I think Trump has been unfairly pilloried by a relentless media that only wanted to see the bad things in Trump. But the people saw through that and they were the ones that ultimately voted him in. In fact these so called uneducated deplorables could also see through the false narrative that the media tried to portray of Hillary.
Often I wonder if the uneducated are actually not smarter than their degree counterparts.
How to Win Friends and Influence People
Everything you mention in your first comment is mentioned in the book.
Now, what do you think is important about 6, 8 and 11?
Lengthy analysis here, with plenty of blame to share on both sides. Written before the election (published in May) and quite prescient.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/04/america-tyranny-donald-trump.html
Neo-fascist movements do not advance gradually by persuasion; they first transform the terms of the debate, create a new movement based on untrammeled emotion, take over existing institutions, and then ruthlessly exploit events.
…Remember James Carville’s core question in the 1992 election: Change versus more of the same? That sentiment once elected Clinton’s husband; it could also elect her opponent this fall.
… In his 1935 novel, It Can’t Happen Here, Sinclair Lewis wrote a counterfactual about what would happen if fascism as it was then spreading across Europe were to triumph in America. It’s not a good novel, but it remains a resonant one. The imagined American fascist leader — a senator called Buzz Windrip — is a “Professional Common Man … But he was the Common Man twenty-times-magnified by his oratory, so that while the other Commoners could understand his every purpose, which was exactly the same as their own, they saw him towering among them, and they raised hands to him in worship.”
He “was vulgar, almost illiterate, a public liar easily detected, and in his ‘ideas’ almost idiotic.” “ ‘I know the Press only too well,’ ” Windrip opines at one point. “ ‘Almost all editors hide away in spider-dens, men without thought of Family or Public Interest … plotting how they can put over their lies, and advance their own positions and fill their greedy pocketbooks.’ ”
…An American elite that has presided over massive and increasing public debt, that failed to prevent 9/11, that chose a disastrous war in the Middle East, that allowed financial markets to nearly destroy the global economy, and that is now so bitterly divided the Congress is effectively moot in a constitutional democracy: “We Respectables” deserve a comeuppance. The vital and valid lesson of the Trump phenomenon is that if the elites cannot govern by compromise, someone outside will eventually try to govern by popular passion and brute force.
A rare snippet of sense from the mainstream media.
morning joe did some excellent coverage the morning after the election.
‘They’ve ruined our country, why would we vote for them?’ – Jesse Ventura on GOP & Dems
J.D. Vance’s ‘Hillbilly Elegy’ provides a window into the pain and anger of Trump’s America
http://www.latimes.com/books/jacketcopy/la-ca-jc-hillbilly-elegy-20161007-snap-story.html
https://www.amazon.com/Hillbilly-Elegy-Memoir-Family-Culture/dp/0062300547
Wealthy and powerful groups tend to learn only the simplest, most self-gratifying lessons.
Car manufacturers already have learned “the right won” so they now think they can lobby to keep polluting.
http://www.motor1.com/news/128290/automakers-mpg-requirements-rolled-back/
Also: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkT1Tdh2qB4
These Rust Belt Democrats Saw the Trump Wave Coming
There’s no point in having training if there’s no jobs to go into. We can’t rely upon the private sector to create jobs because the private sector is more concerned with profits and being rich than creating jobs.
So, the government has to actively engage in the manufacturing sector. Build the factories (3d printer based ones), ensure resources are sustainably extracted, processed and recycled. We don’t want them to be large factories, that’s not how the economies going. They need to be small and producing just a little more than what NZ needs but flexible enough to produce anything (hence the 3d printing).
And another lesson that Labour needs to learn from it’s past:
What lessons can we learn? One big one.. the role of the media, especially in the USA.
This episode of the Listening Post (aired last night) is the BEST evaluation of the election and the media.
HIGHLY RECOMMENDED VIEWING.
Maybe if Bill Clinton had not of changed the laws regarding network ownership things would have been different.
And now post election, the reporting continues, because this topical subject is generating the tv networks squillions of $$$$$$$$$$ in advertising revenue.
“we dig deep into the history: the way the US corporate media were built, the regulations that went away and the legislation that paved the way for the creation of some of the biggest media companies the world has ever seen.”
http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/listeningpost/2016/11/trumped-abyss-reporters-reported-161112060429336.html
Lesson: don’t be any colour other than white or orange.
Another day in the sleepy town of Trumpton:
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/trump-nation-whites-only-trump-fans-deface-maryland-church-for-reaching-out-to-hispanics/
And more everyday life after the election of the Thick Orange Puke:
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/pro-trump-letters-warn-minorities-to-leave-town-or-die-we-cleared-the-white-house-of-nrs/
The US has been a very sick society for some time – I think its about to become terminal.
Lesson: if it sounds too good to be true, it isn’t true.
A broad historical perspective:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tobias-stone/history-tells-us-what-will-brexit-trump_b_11179774.html?
What can we do? Well, again, looking back, probably not much. The liberal intellectuals are always in the minority. See Clay Shirky’s Twitter Storm on this point. The people who see that open societies, being nice to other people, not being racist, not fighting wars, is a better way to live, they generally end up losing these fights. They don’t fight dirty. They are terrible at appealing to the populace. They are less violent, so end up in prisons, camps, and graves. We need to beware not to become divided (see: Labour party), we need to avoid getting lost in arguing through facts and logic, and counter the populist messages of passion and anger with our own similar messages. We need to understand and use social media.
We need to harness a different fear. Fear of another World War nearly stopped World War 2, but didn’t. We need to avoid our own echo chambers. Trump and Putin supporters don’t read the Guardian, so writing there is just reassuring our friends. We need to find a way to bridge from our closed groups to other closed groups, try to cross the ever widening social divides.
(Taking a rare peek at Public Address, I see some intellectual resources, but as usual it’s an echo chamber. If only they’d step out of their Point Chevalier safe space and get their hands dirty… won’t happen of course.)
Was John Titor there?.
/
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CxO-FJiVIAAuaCy.jpg
America is in the hands of people who want to burn the house down.
https://twitter.com/sarahkendzior/status/798133651795939329
Despite the anti-Semites in his brigade wishing the worst for Israel, Trump’s win has emboldened the efforts of extremists like Naftali Bennett to sink Palestinian aspirations to sovereignty and a better life.
JERUSALEM:
Donald Trump’s election as the next US president presents Israel with a unique opportunity to recast its Middle East policies, a far-right Israeli cabinet member and staunch opponent of Palestinian statehood, said on Monday.
Naftali Bennett, leader of the religious-nationalist Jewish Home party and a staunch proponent of Israeli settlement building, said it was now up to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to communicate to the US administration and the world what he wanted and push for it.
[…]
“We have a chance to reset the structure across the Middle East. We have to seize that opportunity and act on it.”
Relying on “old paths”, he said, would be a mistake.
Bennett would not be drawn on what actions he thinks Netanyahu should take. But in the past, Bennett has called for the annexation of most of the West Bank, which the Palestinians want for a state together with Gaza and East Jerusalem.
http://nation.com.pk/international/14-Nov-2016/under-trump-israel-can-reset-middle-east-right-wing-leader-says
I’m sure wikileaks will get right on it!
/
Yeah but then he probably has more to hide than Hillary.
Policy doesn’t matter.
The latest data from television news analyst Andrew Tyndall confirms that broadcast network evening newscasts this year devoted nearly four times as much airtime to covering Hillary Clinton’s emails as they have spent covering all campaign policy initiatives from all candidates for the entire year: 125 minutes for emails, and 35 minutes for in-depth policy discussions on issues like terrorism, immigration, policing.
https://mediamatters.org/blog/2016/11/07/media-s-final-email-flop-fitting-end-journalism-s-troubled-campaign-season/214357
But Joe – What else is the media for but to spread fear and gossip?
This election was all about the economic anxiety of working Americans.
/
The post came from Pamela Taylor, a woman who works as the director at the Clay County Development Corporation in Clay, a non-profit organization that is funded by state and federal funds.
Following the results of the presidential election, Taylor posted the following on her Facebook page: “It will be refreshing to have a classy, beautiful, dignified First Lady in the White House. I’m tired of seeing an ape in heels.”
Beverly Whaling, the Mayor of Clay, responded to the post saying “Just made my day Pam.”
[…]
Taylor says she is working with her attorney to file a lawsuit against individual(s) who have slandered her.
She says she is sorry for everything that has happened but says she now believes the situation has turned into a “hate crime against me.”
http://www.wsaz.com/content/news/Non-profit-director-and-mayor-under-fire-after-Facebook-post-cal-401049855.html
Now all those idiotic twits who thought/said that all the hatred, racism, and bigotry, promoted by the Chump, would all disappear on his election, please stand up and apologise.
Chooky , CV, et al. I’m looking at you.
“It’s Killary’s/Obama’s/lizard people’s fault. They created this by blah blah blah blah blah wibble oh my god it’s crawling up my leg!”
“+100”
There, saved you the bother of waiting.
🙂
Now death threats for the woman who photographed Hillary Clinton hiking.
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/mom-who-took-a-photo-with-hillary-clinton-while-hiking-is-now-getting-death-threats-from-trump-supporters/
Welcome to Trumpland.
Also, don’t forget to give your pity to CV, who’s the real victim here.
Moved from OM:
Originally aimed at the US Democratic Party but really should be read by the Labour front chaise longue.
Maybe there can be a discussion thread on Labour After Trump?
http://robertreich.org/post/153088763715
The Democratic Party once represented the working class. But over the last three decades the party stood by as corporations hammered trade unions, the backbone of the white working class – failing to reform labor laws to impose meaningful penalties on companies that violate them, or help workers form unions with simple up-or-down votes.
Commentary:
https://medium.com/@wilw/the-entire-democratic-party-leadership-must-change-7ce6ed8ebc5a#.eznrhj6ps
The Democrats have a stark choice right now: Whose Side Are You On, Democrats?
There’s been some slow gestures at progress lately, but it’s been very Little very late and I still don’t expect Little to grow a backbone to deal with the neoliberals he’s been appeasing. I’ll cheer for a semi-rigid cartilaginous rod.
See, tiny fisted fascists can unify people, by terrifying them.
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http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ajc-and-isna-launch-muslim-jewish-advisory-council-300362171.html
When you want to bomb, bomb Iran, John Bolton’s your man.
It’s best you think it through before you vote.
Texans helped put Donald Trump, admittedly duly-elected, into the presidency. After wavering all summer and fall, the Lone Star State went decisively for the reality TV star from New York. Now, it turns out, Texas has pretty much the most to lose in the opening days of a Trump presidency, from the economy to our fellow Texans, in fact.
[…]
Texas is the largest beneficiary of NAFTA, which pumps nearly $500 billion into the U.S. economy annually, and nearly half of that winds up in, yes, Texas. If you’d like to see it for yourself, get on Interstate 35 any day of the week. More than 3 million trucks cross into Texas from Mexico each year, and about 2 million head south. By 2020, 70,000 trucks will traverse the 70 miles between Austin and San Antonio alone.
http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2016/11/10/trumps-first-100-days-hit-texas-hard
Travel the 401 from Toronto south to Windsor and Detroit! Pretty much the same. Trucks for miles. I counted 14 trucks in a row before 1 car. Then more trucks – going both ways. One couple we stayed with advised us that Canada has about 14 days of supplies at any one time. Not sure about that, but It could be so. Canadian Dr John Mc Murtry in his book “Unequal Freedoms – the global market as an ethical system” written in 1998, writes
and
Many similarities to the current situation – minority candidate but this time wants to undo the FTAs and reintroduce tariffs.
I think the dismantling of FTA’s is not a bad idea per se. I just don’t think that it can be done overnight without severe disruption and cost to ordinary people.
That feeling when you elect someone who completely lacks basic competence to actually do the job.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-transition-team_us_582b9516e4b0aa8910bd97a5
History repeats.
Hitler at Home
Adolf Hitler was an extreme anti-Semite, convicted traitor, and leader of a violent paramilitary force. In a remarkable press campaign, the Nazis reinvented him as a genial Bavarian gentleman.
https://placesjournal.org/article/hitler-at-home/
Just when you thought it was a thing of the past, sluggish schizophrenia makes a return.
/
A Rutgers University professor tweeted Tuesday night that NYPD officers came to his home then detained him over tweets he sent and statements he made on campus that were critical of president-elect Donald Trump. Kevin Allred, who teaches women’s and gender studies at Rutgers, says that his Twitter account was also temporarily suspended over one of the tweets he sent.
[…]
Allred, who has described himself as a queer feminist and garnered some national attention for teaching a course on Beyoncé and politics, sent off a series of tweets about being detained, including that he was given a psychiatric evaluation at the hospital.
http://au.complex.com/life/2016/11/rutgers-university-professor-detained-given-psych-evaluation-tweeting-criticisms-of-donald-trump?