National really, really needs New Zealand to be in a recession
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7:59 am, September 24th, 2023 - 22 comments
Categories: economy, making shit up, national, same old national, spin, you couldn't make this shit up -
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It was a very interesting week this week.
Statistics NZ shot a whole lot of National’s advertising down by revising GDP growth figures so that the previous quarter was stable, thereby meaning New Zealand did not actually go into recession. There was actually no recession in New Zealand. And a stonking 0.9% growth rate for the latest quarter suggested that things were on the improve.
National pirouetted by claiming that New Zealand WILL be in recession in the near future and that the Reserve Bank has predicted this.
It is true that in August the Reserve Bank in its Monetary Policy Statement predicted two quarters of negative growth, the technical definition of a recession. Here is the table with its predictions located at page 55 in the appendices.
Please note that the prediction for the June quarter was very pessimistic and was just more than half of what the rate actually was.
But the report itself at page 23 in the main text said this:
Economic growth in the first quarter of 2023 was weaker than expected, and periods of further economic contraction over 2023 remain possible. We continue to expect low or no growth in GDP overall until early 2024, similar to what was expected in the May Statement. However, significant quarter-to quarter volatility is likely.
Saying that the Reserve Bank predicted a recession is a real stretch.
But you have to admire National’s spin doctors. They will locate some stray text an then spin it within an inch of its life and claim that their simplification of a summary is right over and over and over again.
And let me don my tinfoil hat and note that the Reserve Bank does not fill me with confidence that it is completely independent.
Its chair is this guy who was caught recently giving policy presents to National. His desire for a new medical school is understandable for his CV but I wonder if it is a good thing for the country to let him oversee the production of material that seems to me to be more conservative than it needs to be.
Left wing equivalents like Rob Campbell get hung out to dry for showing signs of partisanship. National attacked him mercilessly after he dared say what he thought.
And unfortunately for National Standard and Poors has this month come out with a rather rosy review of the economy. From Radio New Zealand:
Global ratings agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has affirmed New Zealand’s AAA local currency and AA+ foreign currency credit rating, saying the outlook for the country is stable.
S&P said it expected the country’s fiscal deficit to narrow over the next three years as Covid-19-related spending measures came to an end.
“Net general government debt will stabilise at a level that is modest compared with that of most highly rated sovereign peers,” S&P said.
“New Zealand has tipped into recession, and higher interest rates will dampen growth. However, a slowing economy should constrain demand for imports, helping to alleviate the current account deficit.”
The ratings agency said the stable outlook on its long-term credit ratings on New Zealand reflected its high assessment of various factors relating to the country.
“The country’s excellent institutions, wealthy economy and moderate public indebtedness will balance credit risks associated with a large current account deficit, high levels of external and private-sector debt, and volatile property prices over the next two years.”
I admire National’s message discipline. Its incessantly negative presentation of the state of the economy has talked many people into a very negative state of mind. Its presentation is spinning reality to the extreme and frankly is damaging to the country’s interests. We do need to have a debate about the economy but one that is reality based.
Politics should be better than this. Let there be a civilised discussion about what state the country is in and what needs to happen to make it better. Currently this is not happening.
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- Release: National should heed Tribunal warning and scrap coalition commitment with ACTThis afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...1 week ago
- Release: More accountability for preventable workplace deaths this Workers’ Memorial DayLabour is calling for more accountability for preventable workplace deaths because everybody who goes to work deserves to come home safely. ...2 weeks ago
- Gaza: Aotearoa Must Support Independent Investigation into Mass GravesTe Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Working together on consistent support for veterans this Anzac DayOur two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Penny drops – but what about Seymour and Peters?Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...2 weeks ago
- Another ‘Stolen Generation’ enabled by court ruling on Waitangi Tribunal summonsTonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Budget blunder shows Nicola Willis could cut recovery fundingIt appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...2 weeks ago
- Further environmental mismanagement on the cardsThe Government’s resource management reforms will add to the heavy and ever-growing burden this Government is loading on to our environment. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: RMA changes will be a disaster for environmentThe Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour supports urgent changes to emergency management systemLabour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour calls for New Zealand to recognise PalestineThe Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Three strikes law political posturing of worst kindThe Government is bringing back a law that has little evidential backing just to look tough, Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Government cuts unbelievably target child exploitation, violent extremism, ports and airpor...Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...2 weeks ago
- Three strikes has failed before and will fail againResurrecting the archaic three-strikes legislation is an unwelcome return to a failed American-style approach to justice. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Environmental protection vital, not ‘onerous’The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...3 weeks ago
- Ferris – Three Strikes targets those ‘too brown to be white’The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...3 weeks ago
- Getting new job seekers on the pathway to work
Jobseeker beneficiaries who have work obligations must now meet with MSD within two weeks of their benefit starting to determine their next step towards finding a job, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “A key part of the coalition Government’s plan to have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker ...17 hours ago - Accelerating Social InvestmentA new standalone Social Investment Agency will power-up the social investment approach, driving positive change for our most vulnerable New Zealanders, Social Investment Minister Nicola Willis says. “Despite the Government currently investing more than $70 billion every year into social services, we are not seeing the outcomes we want for ...19 hours ago
- Getting Back on TrackCheck against delivery Good morning. It is a pleasure to be with you to outline the Coalition Government’s approach to our first Budget. Thank you Mark Skelly, President of the Hutt Valley Chamber of Commerce, together with your Board and team, for hosting me. I’d like to acknowledge His Worship ...20 hours ago
- NZ – European Union ties more critical than everYour Excellency Ambassador Meredith, Members of the Diplomatic Corps and Ambassadors from European Union Member States, Ministerial colleagues, Members of Parliament, and other distinguished guests, Thank you everyone for joining us. Ladies and gentlemen - In diplomacy, we often speak of ‘close’ and ‘long-standing’ relations. ...1 day ago
- Therapeutic Products Act to be repealedThe Therapeutic Products Act (TPA) will be repealed this year so that a better regime can be put in place to provide New Zealanders safe and timely access to medicines, medical devices and health products, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello announced today. “The medicines and products we are talking about ...2 days ago
- Decisions on Wellington City Council’s District PlanThe Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop, today released his decision on twenty recommendations referred to him by the Wellington City Council relating to its Intensification Planning Instrument, after the Council rejected those recommendations of the Independent Hearings Panel and made alternative recommendations. “Wellington notified its District Plan on ...2 days ago
- Rape Awareness Week: Government committed to action on sexual violenceRape Awareness Week (6-10 May) is an important opportunity to acknowledge the continued effort required by government and communities to ensure that all New Zealanders can live free from violence, say Ministers Karen Chhour and Louise Upston. “With 1 in 3 women and 1 in 8 men experiencing sexual violence ...2 days ago
- Smarter lunch programme feeds more, costs lessAssociate Education Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government will be delivering a more efficient Healthy School Lunches Programme, saving taxpayers approximately $107 million a year compared to how Labour funded it, by embracing innovation and commercial expertise. “We are delivering on our commitment to treat taxpayers’ money ...2 days ago
- Report provides insights into marine recoveryNew research on the impacts of extreme weather on coastal marine habitats in Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay will help fishery managers plan for and respond to any future events, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. A report released today on research by Niwa on behalf of Fisheries New Zealand ...2 days ago
- NZ to send political delegation to the PacificDeputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will lead a broad political delegation on a five-stop Pacific tour next week to strengthen New Zealand’s engagement with the region. The delegation will visit Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Tuvalu. “New Zealand has deep and ...2 days ago
- Low gas production threatens energy securityThere has been a material decline in gas production according to figures released today by the Gas Industry Co. Figures released by the Gas Industry Company show that there was a 12.5 per cent reduction in gas production during 2023, and a 27.8 per cent reduction in gas production in the ...2 days ago
- Defence industry talent, commitment recognisedDefence Minister Judith Collins tonight announced the recipients of the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for Industry, saying they all contribute to New Zealanders’ security and wellbeing. “Congratulations to this year’s recipients, whose innovative products and services play a critical role in the delivery of New Zealand’s defence capabilities, ...2 days ago
- Speech to the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for IndustryWelcome to you all - it is a pleasure to be here this evening.I would like to start by thanking Greg Lowe, Chair of the New Zealand Defence Industry Advisory Council, for co-hosting this reception with me. This evening is about recognising businesses from across New Zealand and overseas who in ...2 days ago
- Speech to the Sixth Annual New Zealand Government Data SummitIt is a pleasure to be speaking to you as the Minister for Digitising Government. I would like to thank Akolade for the invitation to address this Summit, and to acknowledge the great effort you are making to grow New Zealand’s digital future. Today, we stand at the cusp of ...2 days ago
- Ceasefire agreement needed now: PetersNew Zealand is urging both Israel and Hamas to agree to an immediate ceasefire to avoid the further humanitarian catastrophe that military action in Rafah would unleash, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The immense suffering in Gaza cannot be allowed to worsen further. Both sides have a responsibility to ...3 days ago
- Daily school attendance data now availableA new online data dashboard released today as part of the Government’s school attendance action plan makes more timely daily attendance data available to the public and parents, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. The interactive dashboard will be updated once a week to show a national average of how ...3 days ago
- Ambassador to United States appointedForeign Minister Winston Peters has announced Rosemary Banks will be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States of America. “Our relationship with the United States is crucial for New Zealand in strategic, security and economic terms,” Mr Peters says. “New Zealand and the United States have a ...3 days ago
- New permit proposed for recreational gold miningThe Government is considering creating a new tier of minerals permitting that will make it easier for hobby miners to prospect for gold. “New Zealand was built on gold, it’s in our DNA. Our gold deposits, particularly in regions such as Otago and the West Coast have always attracted fortune-hunters. ...3 days ago
- NZ and the UAE launch FTA negotiationsMinister for Trade Todd McClay today announced that New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA). Minister McClay met with his counterpart UAE Trade Minister Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi in Dubai, where they announced the launch of negotiations on a ...3 days ago
- New Zealand Sign Language Week an opportunity for anyone to signNew Zealand Sign Language Week is an excellent opportunity for all Kiwis to give the language a go, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. This week (May 6 to 12) is New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL) Week. The theme is “an Aotearoa where anyone can sign anywhere” and aims to ...3 days ago
- Next stop NASA for New Zealand studentsSix tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...3 days ago
- $1.9 billion investment to keep NZ safe from crimeNew Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...3 days ago
- OECD reinforces need to control spendingThe OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. ...4 days ago
- Agreement delivers Local Water Done Well for AucklandThe Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...5 days ago
- Gaza and the Pacific on the agenda with GermanyForeign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...6 days ago
- Decision allows for housing growth in Western Bay of PlentyThe Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...7 days ago
- Speech to New Zealand China CouncilThank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...7 days ago
- Modern insurance law will protect Kiwi householdsThe Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...1 week ago
- Government recommits to equal payThe coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...1 week ago
- Transforming how our children learn to readStructured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...1 week ago
- NZ not backing down in Canada dairy disputeTrade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...1 week ago
- Stronger oversight for our most vulnerable childrenThe rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...1 week ago
- Streamlining Building Consent ChangesThe Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...1 week ago
- Minister acknowledges passing of Sir Robert Martin (KNZM)New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...1 week ago
- Speech to New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Parliament – Annual Lecture: Challenges ...Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...1 week ago
- Accelerating airport security linesFrom today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...1 week ago
- Community hui to talk about kina barrensPeople with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...1 week ago
- Kiwi exporters win as NZ-EU FTA enters into forceKiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...1 week ago
- Mining resurgence a welcome signThere are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...1 week ago
- Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill passes first readingThe return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...1 week ago
- ‘Completely stupid’ – ex-Tuvalu PM plea to NZ to rethink fossil fuel plan
By Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific journalist A former Tuvalu prime minister says while the New Zealand government’s oil and gas plans show it is concerned about its economy, he is more concerned about the livelihoods and survival of the Tuvalu people. Enele Sopoaga — who still serves as an MP ...4 hours ago - Grattan on Friday: Like the famous budget tree, Chalmers can change the story to suit the seasonSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Many people who follow federal budgets know about the magnificent “budget tree” in a parliamentary courtyard, which turns a glorious red in time for the May event. This week Treasurer Jim Chalmers posed by ...4 hours ago
- Australia can have a future for the gas industry, or meet its climate commitments – but not bothSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samantha Hepburn, Professor, Deakin Law School, Deakin University Aerial-motion/Shutterstock Gas is back – if it ever went away. Yesterday, the Albanese government doubled down on gas with the release of its Future Gas Industry policy. Under this proposal, gas will ...6 hours ago
- Technically accomplished, sonically subversive and fiercely independent, I’ll remember Steve Albin...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samantha Bennett, Professor of Music, Australian National University Richard P J Lambert/flickr, CC BY The future belongs to the analogue loyalists. Fuck digital. As a tsunami of CDs, DAT tapes and samplers swept the recording industry in the ...7 hours ago
- Hind’s Hall is Macklemore’s bold new pro-Palestine anthem. What might it actually achieve?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Strong, Associate professor, Music Industry, RMIT University This week American rapper Macklemore released a new track, Hind’s Hall, which has gained a lot of attention because of its explicitly political nature. The track is unapologetically pro-Palestine. It declares the artist’s ...8 hours ago
- How KidsCan provides a nutritious school lunch for $2
A charity says it is - and that it has been doing so while providing fresh meals for nearly 6000 children per day. ...9 hours ago - Shane Jones sets sights on killer kina – 'An industrial grade problem'"They kill all the kelp, they kill all the seaweed, and they turn the marine environment into a virtual desert," the Fisheries Minister says. ...9 hours ago
- Using a structured literacy approach to teach reading: What you need to knowExplainer - The government from 2025 is mandating how state schools teach children to read. But what is structured literacy and how does it compare to other teaching methods? ...10 hours ago
- ‘We do not want to be like Russia’: a first-hand account of Georgia’s fight for democracySource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Danica Jenkins, Lecturer in European Studies, University of Sydney On a freezing spring night in March, Georgia’s national soccer team beat Greece in a nail-biter penalty shootout to qualify for the Euro 2024 championships. The atmosphere on the streets of the capital ...10 hours ago
- Our research shows higher carbon emissions increase costs for Australian businessesSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam G. Arian, Lecturer (Accounting & Finance), Australian Catholic University Loic Manegarium/Pexels Imagine every ton of carbon dioxide a company emits is slowly inflating its costs — not just in terms of potential fines or fees but in the capital it ...11 hours ago
- Ponsonby shooting: Hone Kay-Selwyn death not suspiciousThe death of Hone Kay-Selwyn, who was involved in the Ponsonby shooting, is not being treated as suspicious, police say. ...12 hours ago
- Our cities are widening the divide between the well-off and the rest. How can we turn this damaging ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Somwrita Sarkar, Senior Lecturer in Design and Computation, University of Sydney The “latte line” is the infamous, invisible boundary that divides Sydney between the more affluent north-east and the south-west. Historically, people north of the line enjoy better access to jobs and ...12 hours ago
- Supercharged thunderstorms: have we underestimated how climate change drives extreme rain and floods...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Dowdy, Principal Research Scientist in Extreme Weather, The University of Melbourne Nomad_Soul/Shutterstock In media articles about unprecedented flooding, you’ll often come across the statement that for every 1°C of warming, the atmosphere can hold about 7% more moisture. This ...12 hours ago
- Former Fiji PM Voreqe Bainimarama jailed over block of USP probeRNZ Pacific Former Fiji Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama has been sentenced to one year in prison, Fiji media are reporting. Bainimarama, alongside suspended Fiji Police Commissioner Sitiveni Qiliho appeared in the High Court in Suva today for their sentencing hearing for a case involving their roles in blocking a police ...13 hours ago
- ACC proposes cutting more than 300 jobsThe cuts would be a 9 percent reduction in the Crown entity's total workforce. ...13 hours ago
- Government To Respond To 259 Human Rights Recommendations
Acting Chief Human Rights Commissioner Saunoamaali’i Dr Karanina Sumeo says, “Addressing violence and abuse remains New Zealand’s most significant human rights issue affecting women. ...13 hours ago - Marlborough by-election still possible when MP Jamie Arbuckle resignsThe mayor says she understands the MP's bid to avoid a costly by-election but the decision is one for councillors. ...13 hours ago
- Glaring Hole Exposed In Government’s Single Use Plastics BanJust Earth Papers has challenged the Ministry for Environment to follow its own guidance on the phase out and ban of single-use plastics. ...13 hours ago
- ACT's interpretation of Treaty of Waitangi inaccurate and misleading – claimantsSpeaking to the Waitangi Tribunal, Ngāpuhi Kaumātua Hone Sadler said ACT's interpretation is not in tune with the intent of Te Tiriti. ...13 hours ago
- Should we fight climate change by re-engineering life itself?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonathan Symons, Macquarie School of Social Sciences, Macquarie University Michael Schiffer / Unsplash Life has transformed our world over billions of years, turning a dead rock into the lush, fertile planet we know today. But human activity is currently transforming Earth ...13 hours ago
- Please let me watch the horny tennis movie at a reasonable time
One woman’s quest to watch Challengers without ruining her body clock. Every Saturday morning, I wake up with a screaming demon inside my head urging me to “Do. Something. This. Weekend.” I run through the possibilities in my head in a defensive mental crouch, reminiscent of that one time I ...14 hours ago - ACC Job Cuts Will Mean More Accidents And InjuriesThe PSA is alarmed that ACC is proposing to shed 309 jobs including 29 dedicated injury prevention jobs at a time when the number and cost of injuries is rising. ...14 hours ago
- ACC proposes cutting nearly 400 jobsThe cuts would be a 9 percent reduction in the Crown entity's total workforce. ...14 hours ago
- ‘City deals’ are coming to NZ – let’s make sure they’re not ‘city back-room deals’Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tom Baker, Associate Professor in Human Geography, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Getty Images As local and regional councils struggle with inadequate infrastructure and unsustainable costs, New Zealand will be hearing a lot more about the potential solution offered by ...14 hours ago
- Not all ultra-processed foods are bad for your health, whatever you might have heardSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gary Sacks, Professor of Public Health Policy, Deakin University Drazen Zigic/Shutterstock In recent years, there’s been increasing hype about the potential health risks associated with so-called “ultra-processed” foods. But new evidence published this week found not all “ultra-processed” foods are linked ...15 hours ago
- Explainer: Nicola Willis' pre-Budget speech – what we learntThe Finance Minister has done a conservative lift of the lid on her upcoming Budget. Here's what she laid out. ...15 hours ago
- Explainer: Nicola Willis's pre-Budget speech – what we learntThe Finance Minister has done a conservative lift of the lid on her upcoming Budget. Here's what she laid out. ...15 hours ago
- NZ's reliance on forests to absorb carbon emissions is risky – OECD reportFears that New Zealand is relying too heavily on low-cost forests to absorb its carbon dioxide emissions have been reignited by a report from the OECD. ...16 hours ago
- Cabinet mulls creation of mega spy agency as FIANZ seeks 'serious rethink'The agency, first floated after the Christchurch mosque attacks, is under "active consideration". ...16 hours ago
- Public services savings confirmed, but possibly not complete
Finance Minister Nicola Willis has confirmed the total dollar savings target from public sector cuts has been met, but the reductions have not been felt evenly across public agencies. Government departments were told to make savings set at 6.5 percent or 7.5 percent where headcount had grown by more than ...16 hours ago - Help Me Hera: Are my friend’s compliments of our other mate designed to terrorise me?She doesn’t have a single kind word for me and it’s getting under my skin. Want Hera’s help? Email your problem to helpme@thespinoff.co.nz Dear Hera, I have two amazing friends that I absolutely adore. Grace (all names have been changed) and I lived together across 2023 and Olivia moved in with us this ...17 hours ago
- How mana whenua lead the way in revolutionising environmental healingCan Western science and Māori science work together to support our well-being? The Te Ohu Mō Papatūānuku (TOMP) Trials Project was a landmark case for healing the land and people with the guidance of Māori science and leadership. This is what happened when Papatūānuku (Earth) was contaminated by toxic discharge, ...17 hours ago
- Government to introduce compulsory work seminar for job-seeking beneficiariesBeneficiaries looking for a job will have to attend a work seminar within two weeks of starting to receive welfare under new requirements. ...17 hours ago
- Photos are everywhere. What makes a good one?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By T.J. Thomson, Senior Lecturer in Visual Communication & Digital Media, RMIT University T.J. Thomson We upload some 3 billion images online each day. We make most of these photos on smartphones and use these devices to document everything from gym progress ...18 hours ago
- 'Darkest before the dawn': Nicola Willis rules out austerity Budget"Every dollar counts and our Budget will reflect that reality," the Finance Minister has told an audience.. ...18 hours ago
- Wellington’s new District Plan can be the path forward out of the city’s malaiseThe District Plan is a blueprint for a bigger, better Wellington, through tens of thousands of new apartments and townhouses and a new approach to urban growth. Joel MacManus lays out the vision. The process of putting together Wellington’s new District Plan has been long and excruciating. As a city, ...18 hours ago
- AI companions can relieve loneliness – but here are 4 red flags to watch for in your chatbot ‘fr...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dan Weijers, Senior Lecturer in Philosophy, Co-editor International Journal of Wellbeing, University of Waikato Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto via Getty Images It’s been seven years since the launch of Replika, an artificially intelligent chatbot designed to be a friend to human users. Despite ...18 hours ago
- Paris in spring, Bali in winter. How ‘bucket lists’ help cancer patients handle life and deathSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leah Williams Veazey, ARC DECRA Research Fellow, University of Sydney DavideAngelini/Shutterstock In the 2007 film The Bucket List Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman play two main characters who respond to their terminal cancer diagnoses by rejecting experimental treatment. Instead, they go ...18 hours ago
- Heat is coming for our crops. We have to make them readySource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mohan Singh, Professor of Agri-Food Biotechnology, School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences at the University of Melbourne., The University of Melbourne Tanja Esser/Shutterstock Australia’s vital agriculture sector will be hit hard by steadily rising global temperatures. Our climate is already ...18 hours ago
- Why Trust Is A MustThe Acumen Edelman Trust barometer reported that New Zealand’s political trust score now sits below the global average, a topic explored in a recent discussion paper by Maxim Institute. ...19 hours ago
- Protest March Against Fast-track Bill Announced For AucklandGreenpeace Aotearoa executive director Russel Norman says, "The Fast-Track Bill is the most damaging piece of environmental legislation any Government has introduced in living memory. People are angry, and it’s time to march." ...20 hours ago
- Watch live: Finance Minister Nicola Willis makes pre-Budget speechFinance Ministers have used past pre-Budget speeches to reveal where savings have been found and what rules have been set. ...20 hours ago
- A busy week at school for David SeymourThe school lunches programme has been retained – and will be extended to some preschoolers. So how is it going to cost $107 million less? To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. The minister with many hats David Seymour wears a number of hats, but this week ...20 hours ago
- 'Completely stupid' – ex-Tuvalu PM on Shane Jones' oil and gas commentsEnele Sopoaga - who still serves as an MP in Tuvalu - says the climate crisis is the "main enemy". ...20 hours ago
- School lunch revamp: 'The biggest waiting list since 2018'Up to 10,000 more hungry children under five will become eligible for free lunches under the government's revised lunches in schools programme. ...21 hours ago
- Book of the Week: Ashleigh Young on an extinction event“Show us the bird,” I found myself muttering at times while reading Hard by the Cloud House by Peter Walker, a deeply thoughtful, often hilarious, at times rambling – but somehow delightfully so – search for the story of a big bird. But not just any bird: the bird. This ...21 hours ago
- A ‘sponge city’ may be your home in 2050Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jack Marley, Environment + Energy Editor, UK edition DPVUE .images/Shutterstock Your home was probably designed for a climate that no longer exists. As long as humanity continues to burn fossil fuel, padding the heat-trapping blanket of gases in Earth’s atmosphere, the ...21 hours ago
- Tikanga is the first law of AotearoaA senior lawyer has filed a complaint about tikanga becoming a required law school module. Law lecturer Carwyn Jones explains what he’s getting wrong. “…the first law of Aotearoa, a law that served the needs of tangata whenua for a thousand years before the arrival of tauiwi.” – Ani Mikaere ...22 hours ago
- ‘Your agency is taken away’: When endometriosis treatment changes without your consentIn 2019, an Auckland woman woke up from surgery to find that she had undergone a treatment she didn’t consent to. She tells Alex Casey about her experience. From her very first period at the age of 14, Laura experienced “debilitating” levels of pain that forced her to withdraw from ...22 hours ago
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Immaterial really. No voters are likely to care whether the economy is slightly above or slightly below the line. Any reader who disagrees with this probably believes maths influences branding 🙄.
I agree that a civilised discussion would be helpful, but democracy does not train politicians to provide such, and society doesn't use media that provides much.
We can bask in the warm glow of degrowth, which looms just below the event horizon, and may rise to cast its enlightment onto the people any year soon.
It is easy to predict a recession if National win. It will be guaranteed if they cut public services as much as they have promised. Tax cuts will not be spent enough to compensate.
Sober and balanced assessment from S&P there.
3.4% unemployed, tourism still 20% off peak, 20,000 workers needed on civil infrastructure …
Let's get to work
Business and the wealthy want their country back. They'll do whatever it takes to get it.
"Spreading rumors and lies and stories they made up"
From the lyrics of "Candidate" by David Bowie
If we want to have an actual constructive conversation about the economy it might start out by highlighting the Reserve Bank has only narrowly missed generating a recession with their interest rate hikes. Maybe the Labour government should explain why a recession is necessary, because ultimately this is the government policy. The government of the day can't have it both ways and claim that its actually just Reserve Bank policy because ultimately the government sets the policy targets and frame work the Reserve Bank operates within (pretty much as any other department works).
Now we know National is basically broadcasting that a recession should be generated (and would pursue that result harder), but since Labour seem to be practically comfortable with that being the effective outcome they don't appear to be proposing an alternative to follow the election anyway.
Does the NZ Government create the demand for (the little) we produce?
We attribute far more control to both the Gov and its (very loosely attached) arm the RBNZ than exists in reality
"Does the NZ Government create the demand for (the little) we produce?"
The government purchases some of what we produce in NZ, but you know that and I have no idea the purpose of the question. Maybe your making some hint that a recession (or the kind of austerity policy ACT are proposing) will likely lead to a larger budget deficit rather than a smaller one.
The problem here is the rhetoric doesn't match the policy. If Grant Robertson thinks we need more unemployment (e.g a recession) right now he should be asked to justify that call, or on the other hand he should have to explain if the RBNZ wants more unemployment what he is doing to change their mind.
It is obvious the (independent) RBNZ wants an increase in unemployment and the expected subsequent reduced demand…whether the blunt tool of the OCR will acheive that is yet to be determined….Robertson ( and shortly Willis) can explain or deflect that fact as much or as little as (s)he likes, it will not change the action.
The ability of either to create demand for what NZ produces is marginal given neither control in any significant manner the need, desire or ability offshore markets to purchase what we have to offer.
You're saying the finance minister (more broadly parliament) can't change the monetary policy behavior of the RBNZ? This is untrue, and were it true in a democracy that institution should be replaced by a democratically accountable one.
Parliament could but for their own reasons have indicated no desire to date to do so….the same can be said of using migration to underpin nominal GDP growth.
Got to give it to NW she is good at parroting same twisted info along with lux on.
how about tabling super trends for next couple of years one with labour model and the other with Nats. She didnt want to elaborate wonder why
Heres a thought instead of giving already wealthy landlords tax deductability give it to true first home buyers from the squeased middle and below
She and luxon talk so much about the incredibly hardworking deserve a tax break of a few dollars but in the same breath gives billions to landlords for no work at all
Jeez anybody would think they own a lot of houses…………ooh that's right they do
She and luxon talk so much about the incredibly hardworking deserve a tax break of a few dollars but in the same breath gives billions to landlords for no work at all
I don't see any financial difference between investing in a company and receiving a dividend, and investing in a rental property and receiving rent. But a company dividend usually has an imputation credit attached, so it would be nice if rent could also come with one attached. The problem is that, while all companies are taxed at a fixed rate of 28%, tenants' tax rates are likely to be many and varied. Perhaps IRD could compromise and allow a standard amount of, say, 17.5% to be deducted from all residential rental income, in lieu of an imputation credit. After all rent is a simple transfer payment , on which the tenant will already have paid tax.
If it were National in government, they would be claiming that these same figures were showing strong growth. At least Labour aren't THAT dishonest.
Perhaps it all boils down to that the NZ economy isn't the basketcase that National would like it to be right now.
National are annoyed at how resilient we are.
Superior economic managers?
Hmph! Only in their minds.
I don't think most people give a monkeys about whether we technically are in a recession the most. The most likely care more about whether they feel like they are in a recession.
Petrol now over $3 per litre in many areas, and other cost spiralling costs on basic essentials probably contributes to that feeling I expect.
Some companies are doing their best to boost those spiralling prices. I used to be happy to have a Countdown store 200 metres from where I live but now after checking prices I am cursing that it's not a PaK'N'Save. The last couple of months I have compared Grapes
Out of season Grapes Countdown $25.98/kg Pak'N'Save $12.99/kg
In season Grapes Countdown $12,99/kg Pak'N'Save $ 8.99/kg
Sure tons of other products and it can't be all one way traffic…. but with the pricing activity I have observed at Countdown I get the feeling we are being stuffed over.
Hi Barfly, yes, I have that problem. The only store doing deliveries is Countdown where I live. So am trapped by their extortion. \
I have managed to get ahead with some basics like soap powder and other "keepers" and buy them on special only, which is the usual price. Convenience Costs.
Our PknSave doesn't do Click and Collect either, and New Worlds site to order is bollocks.
Well, they do have to pay for their "makeover"……
In my area…yet another new Countdown "supermarket"….and unsurprisingly…the so called "competition" has led to…none.
Actually, they are so similar….you might think it was a duopoly : (
All their so-fake feelgood advertising doesnt alter….they are just a rort.
If it feels like a recession, and Kiwis are having to cut their cloth accordingly (most more than some), then how the Nats plan to fund their promised tax cuts, and who benefits most from their plans and tax cuts, is particularly pertinent, don't you think?
As it is, I don't trust the Nats – particularly given Willis can't show her working for their foreign buyer tax, aka non-resident speculation tax – seems that "technical numbers" aren't the would-be finance minister's cup of tea. Just how sustainable is this tax anyway, year-on-year? Luxon's "bottom feeders" might be in for a bout of Ruthanasia.
As Jack said "Is that it?" To Nicola’s plans.
I am hearing more and more people want change but don't want what is being offered by Nact.
I just hope the Left get out to vote. 17% of general roll and 27% on the Maori Roll if I remember correctly. Now those numbers could change the outcome and stop the greedies in their tracks.