The recent TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll has caused plenty of discussion here in the last few days. Here’s an interesting angle to consider, courtesy of Toby Manhire on The Spinoff:
The latest poll offers little for anyone to crow about […]
But how good is it all for National? On the one hand, tremendously good: to remain firmly in the high-40s in the twilight of a third term is hugely impressive. And yet, the engine failure in Labour may disguise at least some frailty on the part of the blue team and its own leader’s appeal. Because if you compare the Colmar results of today with those of July 2014, the same distance from the last election, the numbers look a little less bulletproof.
National then: 52% Now: 47%
Labour then: 28% Now: 27%
Greens then: 10% Now: 11%
NZ First then: 4.5% Now: 11%
And in the preferred PM stakes …
National leader then (Key): 48% Now (English): 26%
Labour leader then (Cunliffe): 8% Now (Little): 5%
NZ First leader then (Peters): 3% Now (same guy): 11%
From that perspective, no one looks a winner. Except, of course, for [Winston Peters]
National are 5% down on 2014, with the Labour/Green alliance unchanged. The fall in the preferred PM rating from Key to English is huge. It looks like the Nats / English are bleeding support to NZF / Peters. Interesting. The Nats are highly vulnerable.
The analysis linked in the tweet below is also well worth a look.
— Peter Ellis (@ellis2013nz) July 10, 2017