Newshub poll – Key falls to lowest popularity

Written By: - Date published: 3:13 pm, May 24th, 2016 - 147 comments
Categories: Andrew Little, john key, polls - Tags: ,

Latest Newshub poll shows little change in the party standings and Winston still kingmaker. It also shows that Key “plummets” to his lowest level ever.

Key’s popularity plummets to lowest level
…
John Key’s popularity as Prime Minister has dropped to its lowest point since he took office in the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll.

Just 36.7 percent of those polled listed the current Prime Minister as their preferred option — down 1.6 percent.
…
The preferred Prime Minister poll is not good news for Andrew Little either, he received his lowest ranking since he became leader with just 8.9 percent choosing him as their preferred Prime Minister — down 1.5 percent.

147 comments on “Newshub poll – Key falls to lowest popularity ”

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  1. Jenny Kirk 1
    24 May 2016 at 3:23 pm

    I thought the PM”s popularity rating was around the mid-40%. 36.7% seems low for Key. Any explanations please ?

    • Reddelusion 1.1
      24 May 2016 at 3:48 pm

      Jk is trying to make little angry andy feel better😀

      • Richardrawshark 1.1.1
        24 May 2016 at 3:59 pm

        Red ..whaleoils missing a devotee, his last rentboy resigned he need’s you back.

        I won’t change the gold card , but I will charge all pensioners for travel and make the gold card useless in Auckland.

        Your idol would even rob pensioners. Can’t wait till campaign starts do you know I’ve been buying eggs and saving them, in the sun 🙂

    • Richardrawshark 1.2
      24 May 2016 at 3:52 pm

      Um he sux, comes to mind, but on a serious note, if by todays performance in parliament is anything to go by yet again caught lying, he just pretty much laughs forms a smug grin sits back and doesn’t give a shit.

      I’m more surprised by the bullshit and blatant lies he does the opposition don’t cross the floor and start a fight. Thanks god i’m not there I could never sit by while they carried on like that, it’s not a game. But it seemed to me National will just plain lie and make a joke of parliament.

      May his decline increase in it’s decent into oblivion. John Key you are one of the few people I would follow to the gates of hell themselves to enact my revenge on thee.

      • Robert Guyton 1.2.1
        24 May 2016 at 4:01 pm

        “Bullshit”. That’s the word. New Zealanders get what bullshit is. There’s been truckloads of it being dumped on us for years now. Don’t confuse us by calling it anything else. “Bullshitting” and “Bullshitter” are equally clear to us ordinary people. That’s my suggestion for the campaign. Call it what it is.

      • Tophat 1.2.2
        25 May 2016 at 8:19 am

        “John Key you are one of the few people I would follow to the gates of hell themselves to enact my revenge on thee.”

        it turns out I had never known hate until this guy showed up. Why is it that the rest of the world can see through this guy, but we can’t? Are they putting something other fluoride in our water?

    • swordfish 1.3
      24 May 2016 at 11:53 pm

      No, Key’s been on 38-39% in the 3 News/Newshub Reid Research Polls since May 2015.

      This 36.7% is certainly a new low though. His previous lowest Preferred PM rating in the Reid Research Polls was 37.6% in April 2013 and 37.4% in Nov 2012. But those were unusual (and, although most people don’t realise, 2012 and 2013 really were annus horribilis years for Key and National in terms of public opinion).

      The latest Colmar Brunton (April 2016) also had Key on his lowest Preferred PM rating for that particular Pollster – 39% (equal lowest with a couple of polls from 2012 and 2013).

      By comparison, see my data on Key’s much higher averages in these Polls in previous years …
      http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-29042016/#comment-1166300

  2. dukeofurl 2
    24 May 2016 at 3:46 pm

    The Aussies do a preferred PM poll but also do approval ratings for both PM and opposition leader
    eg Ipsos

    “Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 51-29 to 47-30, and his approval rating is steady on 48%, with disapproval down two to 38%. Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 40% and down three to 46%. ”

    It doesnt make sense to not ask approve- disaaprove question.

    • swordfish 2.1
      25 May 2016 at 12:04 am

      3 News Reid Research do actually measure Leadership Approval ratings but haven’t released the full data for a couple of years. They do, however, mention the odd figure now and then for recent individual polls (sometimes on The Nation, sometimes in the odd news report).

      Labour’s pollster – UMR Research – measure Favourability ratings … here are some details … http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-29042016/#comment-1166300

      As with his RR Approval numbers, Key’s UMR Favourability ratings have nose-dived.

  3. Infused 3
    24 May 2016 at 4:00 pm

    Little going under 10 is pretty bad.

    • McFlock 3.1
      24 May 2016 at 4:16 pm

      lol thanks for your concern.

      But it’s not like Little was ever polling at 50% preferred pm.

      I guess we’ll see if he gets a boost after the election.

      • Colonial Viper 3.1.1
        24 May 2016 at 4:28 pm

        it seems that after 19 months Little has a long way to go to reach the levels of preferred PM that Cunliffe had (17.9%) just a year after taking the Labour Leaders job.

        But Key really has fallen down: this poll from Sept 2014 had him on 61.6%.

        Prime Minister John Key has plunged in personal popularity dropping by 7.3 points and Labour leader David Cunliffe has jumped by 3.9 points, in the latest Herald DigiPoll survey.

        New Zealand First leader Winston Peters has also risen.

        Mr Key is still well above either of them as preferred Prime Minister on 61.6 per cent.

        But it is his second lowest rating in a Herald DigiPoll survey since becoming Prime Minister in November 2008.

        Mr Cunliffe has risen from 14 per cent to 17.9 per cent, the best personal rating he has had in DigiPoll since taking over the Labour leadership in September last year.

        http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11322849

        • McFlock 3.1.1.1
          24 May 2016 at 4:53 pm

          And yet Labour’s still polling better than when Cunliffe was done with it.

          I guess “leadership ability” and “personal popularity” can be two different things…

          • Colonial Viper 3.1.1.1.1
            24 May 2016 at 5:20 pm

            And yet Labour’s still polling better than when Cunliffe was done with it.

            you mean at Labour’s 2014 General Election result?

            Yes will be interesting to see how Little’s Labour does in the 2017 poll that matters.

            Do you think Little’s Labour will come in higher?

            • McFlock 3.1.1.1.1.1
              24 May 2016 at 5:41 pm

              Well, the election and the reid polls at that time.

              Dunno about 2017. Fortunately, I reckon it depends on more factors than whether you’re more effective at campaigning against Labour than you were at campaigning for Cunliffe.

              At the moment Labour are looking pretty solid. Whether that gets them to 35 or 40, or they wander down to 20%, is all anybody’s guess this far out. I don’t have a scrying glass.

              The only thing I reckon will probably happen is that another campaign for early votes will make the final week less relevant, which means a change in style. I was intrigued last time that the starting count on election night was pretty much the final count – says to me that the frantic rush in the final week is ok, but much of its powder is damp, it won’t dramatically swing the vote. Maybe targeting sectors that don’t vote early would be an option.

          • Richardrawshark 3.1.1.1.2
            24 May 2016 at 6:26 pm

            National will always poll higher in an environment that doesn’t ask any questions, ignores issues, debates words, and promotes spin to maintain public perceptions of doing a good job and a rockstar economy.

            Gloat all you like but at the end of the day who are you really fooling?

          • Stuart Munro 3.1.1.1.3
            25 May 2016 at 5:53 am

            Timing cannot be ignored – foreign labour movements are now demonstrating the popularity of a non-thirdway Labour without the disruptive disagreements in cabinet.

        • Enough is Enough 3.1.1.2
          24 May 2016 at 5:07 pm

          Given the media’s preference to treat our Parliament’s election as 2 man Presidential type campaign, it is very concerning that AL is not really connecting in any way.

          We can always hold out hope that he will be like Helen and really come good after a dismal start. However 12 months out from the 1999 election campaign Helen was not in the position that AL currently is.

          It does distress me how relaxed we all are about his piss poor polling.

        • Richardrawshark 3.1.1.3
          24 May 2016 at 6:15 pm

          Cunnliffe would make a damn good labour leader, he also showed it by out smarting smarty pants himself in debates.

          However you and I both know until the media environment changes he hasn’t got a shit show of winning for labour no matter how good he does his job.

          If you cannot get your message out, and find yourself on the defensive in the media constantly it’s not going to happen.

          Armstrongs gone, when trevett and O’Sullivan depart this media landscape he’s got a shot, till then he’s best doing what he does best, using his intellect to help behind the scenes.

          It frankly peessed me right off the media not giving him a chance, I really like David more than even helen he was steering us in the right direction IMHO.

          I had hope for Andrew, being a union man, yet he’s not that great debating yet, should be hammering National but the questions asked are below par for a prospective PM and easily deflected by key.

          Cunliffe would have had Key by the goolies and that annoys the hell out of me that he got ABC’d.

          • WILD KATIPO 3.1.1.3.1
            24 May 2016 at 8:24 pm

            Your right… Cunliffe… would be best in the grand scheme of things…such as Lange … a great rhetoric man… although has Cunliffe the killer instinct of Lange…?

            If Cunliffe wasn’t shafted by the neo liberals in Labour’s caucus… he might well have been able to shine.

            Little , slower , more cautious … would have been a solid deputy.

            Think of a rock band… the high flying personality at the front… solid back up by the other musicians to the rear . Same model for business… extroverts to the front to sell the idea , meticulous planners and introverts bringing up the rear.

            The army functions this way.

            Flamboyant energetic personalities make up the field generals and forward thrust ( think Blood and Guts Patton) , – Moderate Theater generals oversee operations and stay behind in overall planning and controlling objectives ( think Dwight D Eisenhower ).

            Politics is a war.

            And should be fought like one.

            Sun Tzu would heartily agree.

        • swordfish 3.1.1.4
          25 May 2016 at 12:31 am

          Bear in mind, CV, that:

          (1) The (now defunct) Herald-DigiPolls employed a starkly different methodology to Colmar Brunton, Fairfax-Ipsos and Reid Research. The former excludes the always hefty number of Don’t Knows on the Preferred PM question – which has the effect of greatly exaggerating the PM/Party Leader ratings.

          That explains why Key was so often on 60-70% in the Herald-Digis, while – in the same month – down in the 40s or late 30s according to Colmar Brunton and Reid Research.

          Also helps explain why Cunliffe was so high.

          If you focus solely on the CBs and RRs (pre-Election Campaign) you’ll find Cunliffe and Little’s ratings aren’t all that different:

          …………………..Little……………Cunliffe
          Low………………..7…………………….8
          High………………12…………………..12
          Average…………10…………………..10

          (2) On top of that … Leaders – especially Opposition Leaders almost always surge in popularity during the Election campaign. Which also helps explain why Cunliffe was so high in the Herald-Digi you mention here.

          You’re certainly right though that Key’s well down on his Preferred PM / Approval / Favourability ratings compared with previous years. Just not quite to the extent that a comparison with past Herald-Digis would suggest.

          http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-29042016/#comment-1166300

          • Colonial Viper 3.1.1.4.1
            25 May 2016 at 12:53 am

            Ahhhh, most kind. Thank you for taking the time to explain this in detail to me, swordfish.

            One thing though, while we are not yet in the election campaign, Little has had a lot more time to become known to the voters.

          • infused 3.1.1.4.2
            25 May 2016 at 1:15 am

            good explanation.

    • Words 3.2
      25 May 2016 at 12:37 am

      No it’s not Infused. Prior to becoming Prime Ministers, I think all Labour leaders polled low. Helen Clark for example, was polling at 2%.

    • The Pink Postman 3.3
      25 May 2016 at 4:07 pm

      JUST REMEMBER THAT HELEN CLARK WAS ‘MISS 2 PERCENT .\

    • Mosa 3.4
      26 May 2016 at 1:06 pm

      Little is only there to get the caucus unified and instill discipline and try and move the party vote up.
      What he can’t do is electrify the public and excite them ,he was never going to be popular his regular preferred numbers bear that out.
      Key would be threatened if Labour had a real challenger , someone who was clever and had charisma and knows how to get media cut through after all the Canadians just voted for a school teacher with those attributes like here up against a third term Tory government that was Trudeau.
      Labour has few choices ,but a Nash Adern ticket would I think be a winner but that’s not going to happen pre 2018.

  4. Tarquin 4
    24 May 2016 at 4:18 pm

    If a 1.6% drop is a plummet what’s a massive surge? 2.5%? I hate to think how they would describe a 5% shift. Then again, I suppose it’s only a Newshub poll. Sensationalism clearly trumps journalism in that outfit.

    • swordfish 4.1
      25 May 2016 at 12:46 am

      Still, it is Key’s lowest Preferred PM rating since becoming Prime Minister more than 7 years ago.

  5. Michael who failed Civics 5
    24 May 2016 at 4:19 pm

    I wonder how Grant Robertson voted?

  6. Colonial Viper 6
    24 May 2016 at 4:23 pm

    LAB + GR = 42.4% (Labour down 1% at 31.3%, GR up 0.9% at 11.1%).

    NZF 7.8%.

    “Opposition Block” = 50.2%

    NATs = 47%.

    • Mosa 6.1
      24 May 2016 at 7:32 pm

      Labour has to increase its party vote to have a chance.
      Early 30s won’t cut it.
      National if you believe these polls are still the largest party ,unchanged at 47% after 8 years.
      Key is a liability going into Sept next year after being their best asset scince 2007 his numbers are dropping shame their party vote isn’t following.

      • Pat 6.1.1
        24 May 2016 at 7:43 pm

        “Key is a liability going into Sept next year after being their best asset scince 2007 his numbers are dropping shame their party vote isn’t following.”
        ….patience

      • Nick K 6.1.2
        24 May 2016 at 9:02 pm

        If Winston Peters is kingmaker he’s not going to support Labour if Little is on 8% when Peters himself is polling higher as preferred PM.

  7. Enough is Enough 7
    24 May 2016 at 4:48 pm

    I wonder what the result would be if Helen Clark was an option in the Poll?

    She is such a contrast from the current idiot. I would love to see them in a battle next year

  8. North 8
    24 May 2016 at 5:06 pm

    This is the ‘suggestion’ that will do for Key in the end. Not being hard on him but he’s not God after all. And since he’s pretty much inadequate as other than a CT construct he’ll keep on fucking up and lying and acting like a child. Further publicising the stuff which gave rise to the ‘suggestion’ in the first place. Very bad, very bad.

    • Colonial Viper 8.1
      24 May 2016 at 5:22 pm

      The Left has often said that without Key’s BS celebrity and popularity, National’s polling will crumble.

      We might get to test that hypothesis out in real life.

      • Salsy 8.1.1
        24 May 2016 at 10:56 pm

        Christ you actually think anyone will vote for Paula Bennet! Hello 15%.

        • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.1
          25 May 2016 at 12:26 am

          She won her seat with a majority of 10,000. So yes, people will vote for her.

          Very few Labour MPs have a similarly large electorate majority.

          • Words 8.1.1.1.1
            25 May 2016 at 11:11 am

            Bennett was going to lose the Waitakere seat, that’s why the Upper Harbou seat was specifically created for her in 2014. A number of boundary changes were made to dent Labour’s support in a number of electorates as well.

            • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.1.1.1
              25 May 2016 at 11:33 am

              So that I am clear: you’re now accusing the New Zealand Electoral Commission of gerrymandering electorates in favour of the incumbent National Government, and against the Labour Party?

              Do I understand your accusation correctly.

              And what specific role are you saying that former Labour Government Cabinet Minister Pete Hodgson played in this process of Electorate Commission gerrymandering – IIRC he had considerable input into the last electorate boundary review.

              Looking forward to your response on this.

              • Words …
                25 May 2016 at 7:58 pm

                What I had posted are the facts Colonial Viper, but since you have brought it up, yes, imho, the Electoral Commission has been corrupted, and there have been instances, that include the general election, which showed that the Electoral commission, like everything else under John key’s regime, is not above political interference by the National government. The EC even changed is own rules to accommodate Peter Dunne back in 2013. I have lost faith in the Electoral Commission, and no longer trust it. As for Pete Hodgson, like everyone else, he did what he was told.

        • Words 8.1.1.2
          25 May 2016 at 11:18 am

          Lol Salsy, anyone who votes for Bennett must of had a lobotomy and require someone else to guide their hand over the ballot paper!!!

        • The Pink Postman 8.1.1.3
          25 May 2016 at 4:13 pm

          DON’T TEMPT FATE .Remember Muldoon ,most of the public were saying nobody would vote for him .And I remember (myself included saying Muldoon was Labours best vote for Labour,

      • infused 8.1.2
        25 May 2016 at 1:18 am

        that’s most likely correct.

        I suspect if key goes, national won’t be in power for some time.

  9. Keith 9
    24 May 2016 at 5:21 pm

    Voters couldn’t care less about people living in cars, and or homeless, nor do they care about tax havens, the well off avoiding tax or questionable political donations but if I am reading this right, their disdain for the overall stench coming off this government is been attributed to Key.

    Similarly but in the opposite direction Little comes across as humourless and serious without connecting, not that I find those traits anywhere near as repellant as lying misleading smart arse representative for the well off.

    • Colonial Viper 9.1
      24 May 2016 at 6:06 pm

      What’s Labour’s concrete plan to get people living in cars and garages into proper accommodation?

      I think maybe I missed it.

      Or are we talking about opening up more Auckland land so that these poor people can bid for affordable $650K houses in 2019.

      TL/DR everyone knows Labour will continue the exact same economic paradigm, albeit rounding off a few of the sharper, crueller edges.

      • Richardrawshark 9.1.1
        24 May 2016 at 6:22 pm

        what’s your political leaning CV you seem neither left nor right. Bit like me call it as you see it?

        • Colonial Viper 9.1.1.1
          24 May 2016 at 6:50 pm

          It’s democratic, decentralised, rapid transition, 21st century resiliency politics.

          Currently however it consists of a lot of taking the piss out of obsolescent political parties and careerist politicians who keep promising non-answer answers, and insist on treating Kiwis like they are stupid amnesiacs.

          • Richardrawshark 9.1.1.1.1
            24 May 2016 at 7:49 pm

            I like you. 🙂 The piss taking I certainly get, I too am certainly guilty of cursing, both parties, policies, and members equally if they act like idiots and self serving clingons.
            I however find National head and shoulders above Labour currently in matters of stupidity, though searching for tents in Otara came in a good contender.

            I’m still deciphering your first line I gathered it’s along the lines
            You would like to rapidly change politics to regional autonomy? What 21st century resilience politics is seems more something someone would say to make a nonsense reply, funnily much like politicians.

            I should add my political leanings, um.. Just for democracy human kindness, kindness to all living things, no more wars, Government that works sensibly, not ideologically. I don’t want breakdance trips for underprivileged kids, nor do I want to see hundreds homeless. Balanced government.

            • Colonial Viper 9.1.1.1.1.1
              25 May 2016 at 12:43 am

              I get that not everyone comes from an anglo religious background, but Savage already gave us the guts of the answer: Christianity in action.

              What Christ stood for, not what the Church stood for, just to be clear.

              Kindness, compassion, and an open heart to all. Both discipline and freedom, where and when and in what proportion that is best and necessary.

              The 21st century part says this: that for NZ the tribulations of the 21st century are potentially going to be entirely different, and entirely more difficult, than the tribulations of the 20th century.

              And we better get our collective arses into gear and start thinking afresh about things. Actually afresh, not pretend afresh.

          • greywarshark 9.1.1.1.2
            24 May 2016 at 8:53 pm

            Colonial Viper
            On politicians non=answers I dug up this great satirical guide made in 2001 by Steven Price, fresh and appropriate today. Have a listen let me know what you think.
            The Incoming Member of Parliament’s Guide to Ducking Questions.
            http://www.ngataonga.org.nz/collections/catalogue/catalogue-item?record_id=303644

            • Colonial Viper 9.1.1.1.2.1
              25 May 2016 at 12:36 am

              Just listened to the first 9 minutes and it is quite outstanding! Delightful evening entertainment and educational as well. Thanks very much for this greywarshark.

              Will review the whole piece in full tomorrow.

              • greywarshark …
                25 May 2016 at 10:39 am

                Colonial Viper
                Great. Thought you would value it. I had never forgotten it, and finally requested if Radionz had it still and nga taonga archives found it from my information.

                I also gave the link to Steven Price himself. I don’t think he had heard it for ages, only having the text. He enjoyed it. He did such a good job, so well written, and the gathering of the vocal bites from actual political statements makes it a rare satirical gem and spot on educational as you say.

      • Keith 9.1.2
        24 May 2016 at 6:26 pm

        Regardless of what is going on voters apparently are indifferent and firmly support National and that says to me they dont give a shit. There is no point giving a blueprint for National to copy as they will, better to leave them stewing in their self made juices for a while longer while this mess unfolds and see what happens then. Labour could give a blow by blow micro plan and all thats going to do is open them up to the bullshit smear machine as per your constant attention seeking comments, better to wait until closer to the election.

        • Colonial Viper 9.1.2.1
          24 May 2016 at 6:34 pm

          Regardless of what is going on voters apparently are indifferent and firmly support National and that says to me they dont give a shit.

          Then I believe that you aren’t listening to the voters.

          There is no point giving a blueprint for National to copy as they will

          Think about it.

          That would be a good thing for the homeless and those living in garages, would it not?

          • Bb8 9.1.2.1.1
            25 May 2016 at 8:01 am

            Labour has repeatedly talked about building more state houses, cancelling emergency housing debt, ensuring adequate emergency accomodation. You obviously haven’t been listening.

  10. Ben 10
    24 May 2016 at 6:12 pm

    The headline could also have read “Little falls to his lowest popularity”. That, combined with a 0.9% drop for Labour, Peter’s in second place in the preferred PM stakes is a huge fail given the Panama Papers, homeless crisis etc.

    It seems that the more exposure Little gets, the less people like him. Counting NZF in the left bloc is wishful thinking also. There is no way Peter’s would support Little as PM with such low popularity, and having most likely lost his electorate seat for the 3rd time in a row.

    • Paul 10.1
      24 May 2016 at 6:37 pm

      A man who defends a government responsible for record levels of homelessness.
      Cruel, selfish and greedy.
      A true neo-liberal.

      • Richard McGrath 10.1.1
        24 May 2016 at 7:41 pm

        I note you didn’t comment on the original statement from Ben which highlighted the complete lack of impact of the dramatic, eagerly-awaited, government-toppling revelations of – when was it again, May 8 or 9 or some other date?

      • Ben 10.1.2
        24 May 2016 at 7:54 pm

        Where in my post was I defending the govt? I was pointing out Little’s figures were also low, and that NZF teaming with the Left is not a given. Try a bit harder next time Paul – or maybe that’s the best you can do.

        The reason the Nats are still high is not because they are any good, but simply due to Labour not connecting or offering a viable alternative. Labour will struggle to gain more traction with a leader that only 9/100 people prefer as PM. That’s right, 9 out of 100 people.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 10.1.2.1
          24 May 2016 at 8:37 pm

          Are you genuinely unaware of say, Helen Clark’s approval rating before she was elected PM? That wouldn’t surprise me: ignorance of political history is de rigeur for wingnuts.

          Obviously you’ve persuaded yourself that you know what you’re dribbling about. Congratulations.

          • Words 10.1.2.1.1
            25 May 2016 at 1:09 am

            +100 OAB.

            • Colonial Viper 10.1.2.1.1.1
              25 May 2016 at 1:16 am

              Clark lost her first general election as Leader. And that was after experience being Deputy Leader. And a Cabinet Minister. And many years as a successful electorate MP.

              What background does Little bring to the political table.

          • Enough is Enough 10.1.2.1.2
            25 May 2016 at 12:03 pm

            Clark is a terrible comparison OAB

            We do not have the 4-5 years she was given to become PM. We need to win next year and Little is failing to attract any sort of excitement.

    • Words 10.2
      25 May 2016 at 12:46 am

      That’s a load of rot Ben, you have made some baseless assumptions there. As posted in response to another comment, prior to becoming Prime Ministers, I think all Labour leaders polled low. Helen Clark for example, was polling at 2% and Winston Peter’s had no hesitation in supporting a Labour led government. Peter’s said it was one of the most easiest times he had ever had.

      • alwyn 10.2.1
        25 May 2016 at 11:43 am

        “Helen Clark for example, was polling at 2% and Winston Peter’s had no hesitation in supporting a Labour led government”.
        That is an interesting claim but you have overlooked just how long it took for those things to happen.
        Helen bottomed out in early 1995. She finally won an election in late 1999. Winston became part of the Labour Government in late 2005.

        On that basis it means that Labour have no hope in 2017. They should be able to win in 2020 and Winston will decide that Andrew is a great chap in about 2026.
        Of course by then Andrew will be long forgotten. Do you think Grant wouldn’t have a knife in his back when he loses in the next election? As well, by 2026, Winston will probably have forgotten everything else as he will be well into his 80’s won’t he.

        • Words 10.2.1.1
          25 May 2016 at 8:06 pm

          “Helen Clark for example, was polling at 2% and Winston Peter’s had no hesitation in supporting a Labour led government”.

          It’s not a claim Alwyn, it is FACT. Do you realize that Labour were in power for 3 terms? The rest of your comment is the usual fearbased dribble that right wingers like you like to cling to. Your hoped for fantasy will not play out into reality.

          • alwyn 10.2.1.1.1
            25 May 2016 at 9:09 pm

            “It’s not a claim Alwyn, it is FACT”
            Quite true old fellow. Just as my own remark is a FACT.
            It was about four and a half years after Helen got her lowest percentage support before she managed to get into power. It was about TEN years before Winston, desperate for the baubles of office supported a Labour Government. She had managed to improve her support a bit in that decade, although she was soon after 2005 superseded by a much better politician in John Key. No 2% for him, was there?
            If that is repeated Andrew will have been defenestrated long before that date.

            Your original post tries to imply that Winston supported her when she was really in the doldrums. Well he didn’t. When she was in the dregs of “margin of error” support he went with National. Surely you remember that Winston went with National in 1996, when they entered their third term in power? To paraphrase you.

            “Do you realize that National were in power for 3 terms?”

            • Words 10.2.1.1.1.1
              26 May 2016 at 1:13 pm

              Do you realize Alwyn that you have contradicted yourself? and your remark didn’t contain any facts. I didn’t imply anything, I just stated the facts. More facts are that Winston Peter’s hasn’t supported National since the 1990s, and he publicly apologised for doing that in 1998. He had no hesitation in supporting a Labour led coalition government last time.

              Yes, I do realize National have been in power for 3 terms, and its reign is coming to an end.

      • Enough is Enough 10.2.2
        25 May 2016 at 12:06 pm

        Peters was the reason Helen lost in 2008.

        We do not want to carry the risk that is Peters into the next government

        • Words 10.2.2.1
          25 May 2016 at 8:16 pm

          Personally, I don’t think Winston Peters was the reason Helen Clark lost in 2008. She already had 3 terms in office. That’s the usual tenure for a party in power, and there had been only 2 exceptions, the First Labour government 1935 -1949 and the 2nd National government 1960 -1972.

          • alwyn 10.2.2.1.1
            26 May 2016 at 10:19 am

            “That’s the usual tenure for a party in power, and there had been only 2 exceptions”.
            It may be the standard term length for a National led Government but it certainly isn’t when Labour is at the helm.
            There has only been ONE occasion when a Labour led Government did 3 terms. That is one out of five. The others lasted 4 terms (1935-1949), 1 term (1957-1960), 1 term (1972-1975), 2 terms (1984-1990) and the single case of 3 terms (1999-2008).
            National on the other hand have always had at least 3 terms. They were 1949-1957 (3), 1960-1972 (4), 1975-1984 (3), 1990-1999 (3) and, so far 3 more starting in 2008.
            Thus it is the usual tenure for National but the exception for Labour.

            I shall, like you, ignore the much longer terms of the Liberal Government from 1891 to 1912 and the Reform Government from 1912 to 1928.

            • Words 10.2.2.1.1.1
              26 May 2016 at 1:32 pm

              No matter how you may want to spin it Alwyn, 3 terms is the usual limit. Are you scared because National’s time is coming to an end? Or do you think John Key will be able to get away with rigging another election again?

              I didn’t ignore our NZ history pre 1930’s Alwyn, because it doesn’t apply in this context. The great depression changed this country’s political landscape and since the 1930’s there has only been 2 major parties, Labour and National. National was formed in 1938 from the remnants of the broken parties that the First Labour government defeated in 1935. Since the 1930s there have been 5 Labour governments, and John Key’s government is the 5th National government.

              • alwyn …
                27 May 2016 at 4:40 pm

                ” John Key will be able to get away with rigging another election again? ”
                Don’t be so stupid. What grounds can you possibly have for such a stupid statement.

                Of course 3 terms is about the usual limit for a National Government. It is, of course, rather longer than Labour can normally manage.
                I am in favour of getting rid of a Government after three terms. They get tired. That is why I voted Labour in 1984 and 1999 and National in 1990 and 2008. The problem is that you have to have a possible alternative and that isn’t some amalgam of the Labour and Green parties.
                Labour is still infested with the has-been members from the 1980s like Goff, Mallard, King and so on. They should have been dumped at the 2011 election and some fresh blood introduced. Look at the way National got new strong candidates in 2002.

                The Greens are full of nutters like Hughes, Turei and so on. I regard them as being as bad as people like Trump, except they can only destroy New Zealand and Trump would be able to destroy the world.

                • Colonial Viper …
                  7 June 2016 at 9:02 pm

                  Weird world you live in mate, the Greens are the only party which has a decent understanding of the human need for a well functioning uncontaminated environment and ecosystem.

    • swordfish 10.3
      25 May 2016 at 12:58 am

      “The headline could also have read “Little falls to his lowest popularity”

      This Reid Research poll has Key on his lowest ever Preferred PM rating in any poll (since becoming PM more than 7 years ago).

      In contrast, Little has been lower than this (in 3 Colmar Bruntons) over the last year.

    • infused 10.4
      25 May 2016 at 1:19 am

      The best week Labour had in recent times was when little was visiting the troops.

  11. upnorth 11
    24 May 2016 at 7:59 pm

    This will be the question John Key will put to Andrew Little at next years election which has been the fate of every other Labour Leader at the NZH Leaders debate.

    Key:Andrew tell NZers what how much will be their new personal tax rates will be.

    Little reply will be: We will being setting up a Tax working party to work that out

    Key: So this Tax Working party will then tell how much to hike taxes then? Don’t you know already? If you don’t then all your election promises are worthless.

    Little is on 8.9% for a reason

    • Words 11.1
      25 May 2016 at 12:59 am

      “”tax working party””??? Are you suggesting another political party will be formed?

      How worthless has John key’s election promises been Upnorth?

      You can bet Andrew Little will have Labour’s policies covered leading into the 2017 election.

  12. peterlepaysan 12
    24 May 2016 at 8:01 pm

    When was the last time any opposition leader got within 20% of an incumbent, as a preferred government leader 18 months away from a general election?
    18 weeks, 18 days? The incumbent always leads.

    The party (ies) that can form a government is what is voted for at general elections.

    Preferred prime minister polls merely serve to sell advertising for the media.

  13. Whateva next? 13
    24 May 2016 at 8:08 pm

    Didn’t I read some time ago that Key would leave when his polling started to fall?

    • Anne 13.1
      24 May 2016 at 8:13 pm

      I think it was probably conjecture Whatever next, but I agree he won’t hang around if his polling rate continues to fall. Unfortunately the govt. will get a boost after the budget and we can be fairly certain the other MSM outlets (Herald and TV1) won’t start a survey until after Thursday’s budget!

      • Whateva next? 13.1.1
        24 May 2016 at 8:55 pm

        Without Key I doubt National have anyone as ruthless and duplicitous enough to carry on, English basks in reflected glory of Key, but he wasn’t that popular as leader as I remember.

      • infused 13.1.2
        25 May 2016 at 1:20 am

        he will stay till after the election is my picking. I think national will win it, but it wont be easy.

        I think he will go somewhat quick after that.

        • jcuknz 13.1.2.1
          25 May 2016 at 8:41 am

          A horrible thought infused … I wonder what Judith Collins would be like as PM …interesting thought if I didn’t live in NZ.
          I wonder how JC stacks relative to AL in ‘prefered PM’

        • Bearded Git 13.1.2.2
          25 May 2016 at 9:12 am

          That assumes Winston will go with Key…which he won’t.

          • BM 13.1.2.2.1
            25 May 2016 at 9:44 am

            If Key is more than likely going to step aside after the 2017 election, why wouldn’t Peters go with National.?

            The issue is a personality clash with Key, once Key signals his exit plan this issue becomes null and void.

            NZ first is the natural coalition partner for National, not Labour and the greens.

            • Words 13.1.2.2.1.1
              25 May 2016 at 10:59 am

              There is no one in National worth supporting BM. NZ First supported a Labour government last time, so why is it so difficult for National supporters to believe that Winston Peter’s could support a left coalition government again, like he has done in the past? I don’t think the Greens are an issue either, and agree with the premise that Labour, NZ First and the Greens are on the same page with a number of important issues.

              • BM …
                25 May 2016 at 11:54 am

                Your typical NZ first voter has a lot more in common with National voters than it does with Labour and Green voters.

    • Chooky 13.2
      24 May 2016 at 8:53 pm

      jonkey doesn’t like to lose …but it would be SOOOOO good to see him lose the General Election

      …and I don’t think National would recover their mana for a very long time ( it has been a very disreputable time for the National Party.)

      …the Nacts would not recover …especially after a Left alliance with Winston Peters at the helm as PM…

      • Words 13.2.1
        25 May 2016 at 10:40 am

        Although I agree with much of your comment, Winston Peter’s will be part of a left coalition government, of that I am sure, but he won’t be at the helm as PM.

        • Chooky 13.2.1.1
          25 May 2016 at 7:24 pm

          i don’t see why not!…Winston Peters is a seasoned politician who has been very effective against jonkey nactional and deserves to be PM way more than Andrew Little!… (Little , lets face it , is very new to parliament and not popular, has not been able to win his own seat … and only got to where he is because the Labour caucus would not support David Cunliffe the Labour Party members’ choice)

          …Winston Peters is more to the Left , IS POPULAR , and will probably be king maker…himself!

          (…there are no other contenders to lead a Left coalition from the Greens imo…their leaders dont have the experience, popularity or numbers to beat either Little or Peters)

          …so it will be between Peters and Little…Little may be forced to step aside for Peters, if he doesn’t graciously step aside

          • Words 13.2.1.1.1
            25 May 2016 at 8:21 pm

            That’s not going to happen Chooky. Peter’s will play a very important role, but it won’t be as PM.

            • Chooky 13.2.1.1.1.1
              25 May 2016 at 11:35 pm

              it is really up to the voters i would say

              …and which way NZF chooses to make the deal

              • Words …
                26 May 2016 at 1:45 pm

                Well, you are right there, that is so true. The aim is to get rid of Key and his National government, Winston cannot do it alone just like Labour and the Greens can’t. Little is a good negotiator, he’s pulled Labour together, and that was no mean feat, but I cannot see Winston being made a PM unless he joins Labour !! Lol and that’s not going to happen either. As posted previously I think Winston will play a very important role, but it won’t be as PM. But hey, that’s just my opinion.

  14. Skinny 14
    24 May 2016 at 10:13 pm

    Blame next years loss on Jafa’s (me, myself & I ones) …inflated house prices and the rises will keep em voting Natcorp.
    Keep hammering the homeless and poor issue and enough of the missing million may want to be found voting.

    • Words 14.1
      26 May 2016 at 1:48 pm

      That’s a worry Skinny, but surely there are more voters out there not making it big on property speculation that could get out there and vote these National bastards out?

  15. swordfish 15
    25 May 2016 at 1:14 am

    So, Oppo leads the Govt by 2 in this Reid Research Poll (50/48) and by 3 points in the latest Roy Morgan (51/48).

    This poll, together with the last 3 Roy Morgans reinforces my hunch that the latest (April 2016) Colmar Brunton was a bit of an Outlier / Rogue.

    All 10 of the Reid Research and Colmar Brunton Polls carried out since May 2015 have placed the Oppo Bloc ahead of the Govt … except for the April 2016 CB which swung from a 2 point Oppo lead in February to a 5 point Govt lead in April. The other 4 polls since February (3 RMs / 1 RR) have all placed the Opposition Bloc ahead by between 2 and 8 points.

    All of which means … I await the next Colmar Brunton with interest.

    • infused 15.1
      25 May 2016 at 1:22 am

      except you keep thinking winny is gona vote left.

      • swordfish 15.1.1
        25 May 2016 at 2:15 am

        Nope. Don’t read so much into it. It’s just about possibilities.

        For “Oppo Bloc ahead” – read: Winnie holding the balance of power.

        Oppo in lead = Labour and the Greens are at least in the game, they have a chance
        Govt leading = all over rover.

        Put it another way … the last 3 Roy Morgans and this latest Reid Research have Lab+Green on 41-42%, last Colmar Brunton, by contrast, has them down on 38% (whereas previous CBs put them on early to mid 40s).

        Last 3 Roy Morgans placed Nats on 43-46%, this Reid Research has them on 47%, last CB by contrast put them up on 50% (whereas previous 4 CBs had them on 47%).

        Same deal with the Oppo and Govt and Broader Right ratings.

        So, the latest (April) Colmar Brunton sticks out like a sore thumb whichever way you look at it.

      • Words 15.1.2
        25 May 2016 at 10:25 am

        Why not Infused? Winston Peter’s had no hesitation in supporting a Labour led government last time.

        Q: When was the last time Winston Peter’s supported National?
        A: The 1990’s, and in 1998 he publicly apologised for doing so.
        During the 2014 general election, Winston Peter’s claimed that he was approached and asked if he would give National support if John Key was no longer in the picture. If concerned members of National were ready to throw Key under the bus then, they must be besides themselves now, and proves Bearded Git’s assertion correct, that Winston will not support John Key, and I seriously doubt, even with Key gone, if he would support National with its current crop of rejects either.

        • Infused 15.1.2.1
          25 May 2016 at 11:07 am

          because the greens will have so much influence.

          • Words 15.1.2.1.1
            25 May 2016 at 8:24 pm

            Every party will have influence Infused, not just the Greens, and that’s what compromise is all about.

        • Enough is Enough 15.1.2.2
          25 May 2016 at 11:21 am

          We really do not want to Winston Peters having any part in a Labour lead government.

          He is toxic for the party(ies), he is in government with and is not the kind of person I want having influence in Socialist government.

          His anti immigration, and us against them attitude, reminds me very much of a certain US presidential hopeful. I don’t want that sort of poison anywhere near my government.

          • Words 15.1.2.2.1
            25 May 2016 at 8:28 pm

            You have that kind of government now.

            A Labour led coalition will need the support of not only the Greens but NZ First too. That’s the reality.

            • Chooky 15.1.2.2.1.1
              25 May 2016 at 11:41 pm

              Labour might plummet to 10% and NZF go up to the 20%+ and take the position of lead party …ever thought about that?

              personally although I don’t think it is likely…i would like to see it!….Labour is way too complacent…and some its caucus needs turfing out…

              …I would also love to see Mana/Int resurrected and take Labour’s place

              • Colonial Viper …
                7 June 2016 at 8:39 pm

                personally although I don’t think it is likely
i would like to see it!
.Labour is way too complacent
and some its caucus needs turfing out


                Not in 2017, not in 2020, but in 2023 NZ First could over take Labour. That is contingent on Ron Marks really picking up the baton and sprinting with it.

                NZF could reverse its position with Greens in 2017.

  16. swordfish 16
    25 May 2016 at 2:42 am

    Other important findings from this latest Reid Research Poll:

    (1) “Is the Government doing enough to control the Housing Market ?”

    YES ……………………. 20%
    NO …………………….. 76%
    DON’T KNOW ……….4%

    (Nat voters – YES … 33% / NO … 61%)

    Gower: “This is unprecedented in our polling on any topic or on any issue for John Key’s Government. For them, this is a political crisis.”

    • Infused 16.1
      25 May 2016 at 11:09 am

      I don’t know why National didn’t hit this straight on earlier…

      They implemented data gathering to say we are doing something, which has at least given some data…

      However, they quite easily could have pawned this off at the council, which I think is half the problem, and then looked to do something about it. national keep beating around the bush on this one, and now its starting to hurt.

  17. jcuknz 17
    25 May 2016 at 8:35 am

    The wishful thinking of some is hilarious

  19. save nz 19
    25 May 2016 at 12:07 pm

    John Key has a lot further to fall in my view. His tax havens for mates and his constant lying is starting to be noticed, no matter how much they spin it.

    Someone told me that Helen clark was once below 10% – she was not popular either, but people still voted for her and respected her.

    • Enough is Enough 19.1
      25 May 2016 at 1:13 pm

      It is inevitable that John Key’s name will be revealed somewhere in the Panama Papers

      When that does he will be gone burger

      • Infused 19.1.1
        25 May 2016 at 1:33 pm

        Why? It’s not illegal. That was the whole downfall of the Panama Papers. They were millions of files about nothing.

        • Enough is Enough 19.1.1.1
          25 May 2016 at 1:37 pm

          Because it will be conclusive proof that he is a tax dodger, and involved in illegal business structure.

          • Bob 19.1.1.1.1
            25 May 2016 at 2:22 pm

            “Because it will be conclusive proof that he is a tax dodger, and involved in illegal business structure”
            Can you please point me to one media release that shows conclusive proof of John Key being a tax dodger? I must have missed that one.

            Sounds like you are suffering from one of the few legitimate cases of KDS to me.

            • Enough is Enough 19.1.1.1.1.1
              25 May 2016 at 3:48 pm

              Read what I wrote you moron

              “It will be”, Not “It is”

              How can I point to something which has not been revealed yet?

            • save nz 19.1.1.1.1.2
              25 May 2016 at 3:49 pm

              Show us John Keys tax returns Bob!

              And lets hope Scenic hotels sues, so Labour can get a court order for the National party donations and other mechanisms to shuffle around money.

          • Naki man 19.1.1.1.2
            25 May 2016 at 4:08 pm

            Thats where you are wrong E is E its not an illegal business structure.

            • Enough is Enough 19.1.1.1.2.1
              25 May 2016 at 4:12 pm

              How can you say that if it hasn’t been revealed yet?

              • Naki man …
                25 May 2016 at 4:56 pm

                What is your idea of an illegal business structure?
                Minimising tax is what smart people do.
                It is widespread and perfectly legal.

      • save nz 19.1.2
        25 May 2016 at 3:46 pm

        I think what will be more revealing is the NZ tax havens John Key set up. That will be where his money is, and the US (Hawaii) and probably routed through many other tax havens to avoid detection.

  20. mikes 20
    25 May 2016 at 4:20 pm

    There’s something I still don’t get about preferred pm polls.

    This one would suggest that Labour is a long way away from being unified.

    Little polls under 10% but Labour support is around 30%. This suggests that over 60% of those who support Labour, don’t want Little as PM?

    Am I correct in saying that or am I missing something? (I would have thought the preferred PM ratings would be much closer to the individual’s party rating. Or is it that a large number of people who would vote Labour don’t even know who the Labour leader is?)

    To me if I support the Labour party then my preferred PM is the Leader of the Labour party, whether I want him as leader of the party or not, as the leader, he is automatically my choice for preferred PM. Obviously i am in a minority in that way of thinking?

    When Key was polling 60 or 70% as preferred PM, that would indicate there were a large number of Labour supporters who wanted Key as their preferred PM? Just doesn’t make sense to me.

  21. whateva next? 21
    25 May 2016 at 5:32 pm

    Gawd, just catching up on NZQT and the best bit is that you can fast forward the slurred nonsense answers from Key, …charismatic? anyone from overseas listening to him would wonder what we mean by “charismatic” if it is ascribed to Key, I just find him embarrassing.

  22. DLANZ Disabled Liberation Aotearoa NZ 22
    26 May 2016 at 3:21 am

    Serves you right John Key you’ve been abdicating Sovereign Responsibility for too long

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