Northern Ireland

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1. joe90 1

   11 June 2017 at 9:24 am

   A Redditor comments on why a formal Tory/DUP coalition is a cause for concern.

   Even a confidence and supply agreement is too close.

   A British Government reliant on the support of the DUP for their majority is in the same position as one in a formal coalition with the DUP with regard to negotiations in Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein and the SDLP already don’t believe that the British Government under May acts as a neutral facilitator for negotiations, not without reason, and if the Government is propped up by the DUP then they simply can’t claim to be an honest, neutral broker.

   So the Tories relying on the DUP, even just with confidence and supply, vindicates everything that Sinn Fein have said about British rule in Northern Ireland for decades – that the British aren’t honest brokers, that they can’t be trusted, that they will always side with unionists, that there is nothing in the union for Irish republicans and nationalists, that there’s nothing in the union even for soft unionists who reject the DUP’s corruption and conservatism, that the only option to represent the interests of most people in NI is a united Ireland.

   This is very bad news for power sharing. Talks in the past have succeeded because nationalists have accepted that the British Government has no interest in Northern Ireland beyond respecting the right of its people to self-determination. This was certainly the case under Blair, and I think under the coalition too. This principle is the foundation of the Good Friday Agreement. If the Government ends up in a partisan position where they owe their position in the Commons to the DUP then that will undermine the confidence of nationalists in the process and make it much less likely that negotiations will be successful.

   And let’s not forget that the negotiations are scheduled to end at the end of June – just in time for loyalist marching season, traditionally the most tense time of year in Northern Ireland. Everyone involved needs to tread very carefully, but May’s government seems to lack any understanding of Northern Ireland and has in the past shown itself willing to be played by the DUP so I don’t for a second believe that they will be at all careful.

   So it’s a disaster for power sharing, but Sinn Fein will be loving it. I imagine Gerry Adams is rubbing his hands with glee. Theresa May is handing them a huge win because she doesn’t understand Northern Ireland.

   https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/6geug7/may_wants_formal_coalition_with_dup/diprbvf/

   https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/6geug7/may_wants_formal_coalition_with_dup/
   • dukeofurl 1.1

     11 June 2017 at 11:13 am

     The Ulster assembly was already at a stalemate before the UK elections, and had been for some time
     That had nothing to do with the situation in Westminster, nor will it.

     of course the DUP improved their position in the North , up 2 seats, but so did SF.

     the march elections made changes due to the reduced number of MPs, but the DUP share of vote was slightly down while the SF went up.
     Since the structure is designed for power sharing not one side winning over the other, I cant see how the situation in London affecting a stalemate in Belfast
     • Matthew Whitehead 1.1.1

       12 June 2017 at 1:39 pm

       You don’t think it affects that situation that the UK branch of DUP will be in a minority government deal with the conservatives, who are simultaneously supposed to mediate their deal with SF or be the alternative if no deal is reached? (ie. NI reverting to direct rule from Westminster)

       Because it does. This is the sort of thing the UK media should have been covering pre-election so that people were aware of the disastrous consequences and the conservatives could have been forced to commit to not sharing power with DUP.
2. Draco T Bastard 2

   11 June 2017 at 9:26 am

   but it’s looking more and more like the Conservatives are intent on power at all costs

   That’s always been true. Just need to look at John Banks’ “If I wear my policy on my sleeve, I won’t get elected to realise that.
3. Glenn 3

   11 June 2017 at 9:29 am

   Shame this lot won’t attend..

   Westminster remains the only parliament boycotted by Sinn Féin. In both Dublin and Belfast the party has engaged in legislative activity and has been rewarded by the electorate. The only obstacle to Sinn Féin MPs taking their seats in London is their opposition to the parliamentary oath.

   A century since abstention from Westminster began, the nature of and rationale for the policy has changed dramatically. Sinn Féin has clearly benefited politically from participating in the Dublin and Belfast parliaments.

   Taking their seats would allow Sinn Féin MPs to give more substance to their strong Remain stance. The party could conceivably be in a uniquely powerful position.

   http://theconversation.com/fighting-an-election-only-to-refuse-a-seat-sinn-fein-and-westminster-abstention-76963

   UK Parliamentary oath…
   I (name of Member) swear by Almighty God that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth, her heirs and successors, according to law. So help me God.
   • dukeofurl 3.1

     11 June 2017 at 10:52 am

     Technically in the Stormont parliament , the Sinn Fein Mps are elected as ‘independents’

     “Each MLA is free to designate themselves as “nationalist”, “unionist”, or “other”, as they see fit, The SDLP are called nationalist, while Alliance and Green party are amoung ‘others’
   • RJL 3.2

     11 June 2017 at 2:11 pm

     But Dublin and Belfast are in Ireland. Westminster isn’t.
     • dukeofurl 3.2.1

       11 June 2017 at 4:20 pm

       Yes. I was out of date. Belfast and Dublin are fine now.
4. Karen 4

   11 June 2017 at 10:05 am

   I think my favourite description of the DUP is that it is the political wing of the 17th century.

   There is no way May will be able to hold this together. Ruth Davidson, the leader of the Tories in Scotland, is already talking about breaking with the English Tories (she is a lesbian and her partner is an Irish Catholic). There will be many tories who see the problems that are going to ensue in Northern Ireland because of this deal mean that it is not worth it.

   It is possible to run a minority government in Britain. Their rules on Confidence and Supply are a bit different to NZ because of the Fixed Term legislation:

   http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/under-the-fixed-term-parliaments-act-a-minority-government-doesnt-need-a-confidence-and-supply-arrangement-to-be-able-to-govern/

   However, I can’t see it working for more than a few months. Another election seems inevitable.
   • weka 4.1

     11 June 2017 at 10:41 am

     Still trying to get the process clear. Are the Tories still the govt? Or they’re just holding the reins until a new govt is appointed?

     And that appointment happens when the House votes on a “That this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government.” and that vote passes i.e it needs a majority (not 50%, because MPs can abstain, and Sinn Fein will)?

     And the Queen’s Speech is roughly the time when such a confidence vote would be taken?

     btw, noting the date on that article (2015) and that the MSM have had more than ample time to get their heads around this and explain it to the voting public clearly. Gobsmacking that they haven’t, but then it’s not too dissimilar in NZ.
     • Karen 4.1.1

       11 June 2017 at 11:03 am

       The Tories get to make the first attempt at forming a government because they are the biggest party. They need to get a majority of the house expressing confidence in their ability to govern – that is a majority of those who are eligible to vote, not a majority of those who actually vote.

       If they fail to get this at the first sitting then Corby gets a chance to do the same. He doesn’t need to be in a coalition, he just needs a majority saying he can lead the government. Once either has achieved enough support to form a government then they are the government until there is a majority of the house voting no confidence.

       Once that happens (whether it is May or Corbyn as PM) there has to be an election.
       • weka 4.1.1.1

         11 June 2017 at 11:08 am

         So the confidence vote will be the same day as the Queen’s Speech? (19th June).

         “that is a majority of those who are eligible to vote, not a majority of those who actually vote.”

         Do you mean they need 326 votes irrespective of what Sinn Fein (or other abstainers) do?
         • Bill 4.1.1.1.1

           11 June 2017 at 11:40 am

           It would appear to be that way. So a few Tory backbenchers pulling the plug would work. Not that that would deliver for UK Labour (it’s one thing to abstain and quite another to vote for the opposition)

           I believe if there is no government after 14 days, it’s back to the polls.
           • weka 4.1.1.1.1.1

             11 June 2017 at 11:53 am

             that explains why the Guardian graphics had SF in the opposition side and were still counting a full 650.

             And in which case Labour can’t form govt either.
             • Bill …

               11 June 2017 at 12:08 pm

               Just been looking at “the Act”.

               Forget the bit about the 14 days triggering a return to the polls. That only kicks in if Parliament has been dissolved. And that only comes about with a 2/3rds vote.

               Now I might have said that barring a deal with the DUP, someone is going to have to put forward a motion of dissolution. But then, since there is no government to not have any confidence in…

               Clusterfuck days straight ahead. 🙂
               • Bill …

                 11 June 2017 at 12:17 pm

                 Jeesus! here I am rowing back and forth 🙂

                 Okay. From a slower reading of “the Act”. (I’ve bolded for clarity)

                 Early parliamentary general elections

                 (1)An early parliamentary general election is to take place if—

                 (a )the House of Commons passes a motion in the form set out in subsection (2), and

                 (b)if the motion is passed on a division, the number of members who vote in favour of the motion is a number equal to or greater than two thirds of the number of seats in the House (including vacant seats).

                 (2)The form of motion for the purposes of subsection (1)(a) is—

                 “That there shall be an early parliamentary general election.”

                 So there we go. A 2/3rds vote secures a new election.
                 • dukeofurl …

                   11 June 2017 at 12:26 pm

                   the bit about losing a confidence motion at any time, will cause an election is true.
                   if she cant form a majority and win a confidence motion in the next few weeks ( very unlikely) there would have to be a new election.
                 • weka …

                   11 June 2017 at 12:42 pm

                   So… if DUP vote in that one initial vote to support the Cons (on the 19th), then the Tories are in for 5 years not matter what unless there is a either vote of no confidence passed with 51%, and/or a vote of 2/3rds of the House to have a new election?
                   • dukeofurl …

                     11 June 2017 at 1:10 pm

                     Thats right . The torys have to go 5 years unless there is either :

                     (1) lose no confidence motion- last one was under Callaghan in 1979
                     (2) have 2/3 vote to have early election – which we just had , so cant see them wanting that one again soon if ever.

                     the 3rd option, which is no longer available is to have an election at the PMs choosing. Of course they could legislate to repeal the 5 yr fixed terms.
                   • Karen …

                     11 June 2017 at 1:17 pm

                     There can be a vote of no confidence at any time.

                     At a guess, I’d say there will enough Tories opposed to any deal with the DUP for May to be forced into looking for another solution to get the numbers. If she can’t do that (or she refuses) she will be rolled as leader and someone else, presumably Johnson, will take over and try to get confidence support (not coalition) from the Lib Dems. That would at least ensure a soft Brexit.

                     I doubt any party wants to take responsibility for having to have another election immediately so there will be cooperation for a while at least. Can’t see it lasting 5 years, however.
                   • Bill …

                     11 June 2017 at 2:00 pm

                     Think you might have hit it on the head there Karen. (I think we all know the tune)

                     12 Liberal Democrats sitting on a wall…
                   • dukeofurl …

                     11 June 2017 at 4:11 pm

                     “she will be rolled as leader and someone else, presumably Johnson, will take over and try to get confidence support”

                     How can she be ‘rolled’ as leader ?

                     The Conservative leader is elected from 2 candidates by a postal ballot of all party members.

                     the days of the Mps soley decided were long ago . Its not that different from UK labour ( except they dont have electoral college)
                   • weka …

                     11 June 2017 at 4:25 pm

                     @duke how is a vote triggered?
           • Draco T Bastard 4.1.1.1.1.2

             11 June 2017 at 12:00 pm

             I believe if there is no government after 14 days, it’s back to the polls.

             So, there’s a high probability of there being another election in a few weeks?
             • Bill …

               11 June 2017 at 12:09 pm

               No. See above. I was a bit hasty on the 14 days thing.
             • dukeofurl …

               11 June 2017 at 12:23 pm

               Why would they have a new election.
               Simple arithmetic says Torys + DUP = majority [ excluding SF 7 & Speaker]

               A majority of a few is not uncommon in UK. In the last years of Major they were down a quite a few Mps due to by elections and relied on support of the then UUP.
               That government lasted 5 years despite loosing occasional votes ( but not budget or condfidence votes)
               • Draco T Bastard …

                 11 June 2017 at 12:54 pm

                 Simple arithmetic says Torys + DUP = majority

                 True – except that that appears to be against standing agreements which means that such a coalition can’t be made without breaking the law which is what the post is all about.
                 • dukeofurl …

                   11 June 2017 at 1:15 pm

                   “means that such a coalition can’t be made without breaking the law ”

                   Where did you come up with that ? I call that bullshit.
                   Standing agreements are nothing to do with breaking laws anyway.

                   You are confusing an ‘opinion’ about forming a government in Stormont with what will happen in Westminister.
                   Their assembly has lapsed before when both sides coundnt come to terms.

                   The DUP wont be joining the government in Westminster , they will only be confidence and supply. There wont be an DUP Secretary State for Northern Ireland.

                   The guy is only speculating, perhaps he has a barrow to push.
                   he was wrong as Major did depend on the UUP back then. Bizarre comments he makes.
                 • dukeofurl …

                   12 June 2017 at 10:59 am

                   “Sinn Fein party president Gerry Adams said: “Sinn Fein has never accepted that the British government is impartial or neutral.”

                   As Sinn fein is the other major group in The NI assembly, it seems they wouldnt see any difference from previous governments , supported by DUP or otherwise

                   The very small NI Conservatives themselves were once opposed to the Good Friday agreements
5. One Anonymous Bloke 5

   11 June 2017 at 10:15 am

   Thanks for posting this Weka. I wonder whether May will see sense.

   I suppose the EU might postpone Brexit negotiations while the Brits sort themselves out. If not…drool Britannia.
   • dukeofurl 5.1

     11 June 2017 at 10:56 am

     That wont happen.

     The Commons voted by nearly 500 Mps for the Brexit to begin, which means negioations are largely done by civil servants anyway.
     Labour policy was to continue with Brexit, only the Lib dems and Greens were for a second referendum while the SNP hedged a bit by only saying that Scotland remain in Common market ( which was impossible)
     • weka 5.1.1

       11 June 2017 at 11:00 am

       Why won’t it happen? Presumably the civil service still needs to take its direction from parliament.
       • Wayne 5.1.1.1

         11 June 2017 at 11:17 am

         Labour supports Brexit, though who knows in what form.

         The Brexit negotiations are going to be a disaster, and in my view will collapse within a year. It is almost certain that the British will not be able to agree on what type of Brexit they want. Failed negotiations means Britain just leaves at the end of two years.

         But there will still need to be legislation to implement the exit, which will not pass. Tory rebels will vote against.

         That means a new election, sometime in April/May 2019. May won’t be the leader at that point. Who knows who will be? But I suspect the Conservatives will take a chance with Boris. Playing safe will not work.

         So an election between Boris and Corbyn. The Conservatives will want to wait till the new boundaries are in place, which are likely to favour the Conservatives, but in the current mood perhaps not. And in any event they may not have the right to wait if they have lost such an important vote.

         More likely than not Corbyn wins. After all by then the Conservatives will have been in power for 9 years, and since 2015 in a pretty chaotic way.
         • weka 5.1.1.1.1

           11 June 2017 at 11:20 am

           But there will still need to be legislation to implement the exit, which will not pass. Tory rebels will vote against.

           That means a new election, sometime in April/May 2019.

           Do you mean that post-failure of Brexit legislation a vote of no confidence will be called and some Tories will vote no confidence in their own party?
         • One Anonymous Bloke 5.1.1.1.2

           11 June 2017 at 11:24 am

           That means a new election, sometime in April/May 2019.

           There are serious issues with the notional Tory/DUP coalition. The new election may come far sooner than that.
         • dukeofurl 5.1.1.1.3

           11 June 2017 at 11:30 am

           “It is almost certain that the British will not be able to agree on what type of Brexit they want.”
           The conservatives still hold the reins, the DUP isnt that far away from them

           The EU is the stumbling block as its they who want a ‘hard agreement’, to discourage the others.

           In those circumstances your initial negotiating position is nothing to do with a normal ‘good faith’ type of discussions.
           You counter the EU hardline position with your own, and that means not giving away anything before hand

           Do you think Germany will want to see 20% of its car production, which goes to UK put in jeopardy, or the million plus EU citizens in UK put in an untenable situation. ?
         • dukeofurl 5.1.1.1.4

           11 June 2017 at 12:17 pm

           “Labour supports Brexit, though who knows in what form.”

           read their manifesto. They differ from the Torys, but of course under the Westminister system they are highly unlikely to be asked during negotiations.

           “But there will still need to be legislation to implement the exit, which will not pass. Tory rebels will vote against.”

           Really ? Its labour policy to support Brexit and theres are largish group of strong Brexiteers in labour. Remember the 500 votes to trigger the exit process !
           Doesnt sound like there is much support to stop Brexit.
       • dukeofurl 5.1.1.2

         11 June 2017 at 11:24 am

         UK parliament has done its ‘little bit’ last time
         The civil servants are like those here, they take their directions from Ministers only. Other Mps are held in distain.
         Conservatives are for Brexit, DUP is for Brexit, labour is for Brexit. What more do you need ( its in their manifestos!)
     • One Anonymous Bloke 5.1.2

       11 June 2017 at 11:52 am

       This won’t happen

       If you say so…

       …the president considers that the real political negotiations on Article 50 with the United Kingdom will start after the elections foreseen for the 8th of June…
       • dukeofurl 5.1.2.1

         11 June 2017 at 12:37 pm

         It just says negotiations between civil servants begin fairly soon and go on for some time !

         Both sides wont be negotiating through the headlines , in-spite of what you read ( Independent has a very strong Remain pro EU policy, so they arent giving you an impartial view )

         Did we know the details of the TPP while it was underway ?
     • mikesh 5.1.3

       11 June 2017 at 12:05 pm

       Once Article 50 has been triggered, and this has already happened, I would assume that a second referendum would be ineffectual.
       • dukeofurl 5.1.3.1

         11 June 2017 at 12:12 pm

         What second referendum ? the only parties promising that were Lib Dems and Greens. Do you know how many Mps they got?

         Wistful thinking !

         The Supreme Cort ruled they had to have a vote in the Commons to trigger article 50, that was passed by nearly 500 votes ( out of almost 650Mps)
6. tc 6

   11 June 2017 at 10:44 am

   Quite a pickle the tories arrogance has created here.

   Brexit Boris and Majority May surrounded by those ‘quality people’ you often hear about but rarely from.
7. dukeofurl 7

   11 June 2017 at 11:00 am

   The DUP wont be a coalition, it will be something we are familiar with . Confidence and Supply.

   As the DUP people elected in North Ireland are different to those in Westminster ( plus its 10 Mps not 8 as weka has said, that was last election)
   Cant see how its some sort of breach of the NI power sharing agreements. Which have lapsed for years in the past as well.

   [thanks, corrected now – weka]
   • weka 7.1

     11 June 2017 at 11:04 am

     It’s pretty clearly explained in at least 3 links in the post.

     I’ve seen reports of ‘coalition’, but you are right it doesn’t have to be. Technically they don’t even need a C and S agreement. The media still don’t seem to be being very accurate with their language. It happens here too, which is not helpful.
   • dukeofurl 7.2

     11 June 2017 at 11:20 am

     I think the Sinn Fein Mps in both Belfast and Dublin sit as Sinn Fein. They changed their policy from that which previously occurred.
     But its one of their core beliefs , as Gerry Adams once put it

     “”There are lots of things which there can be no certainty of and there are some things of which we can be certain,” Mr Adams said. “There will never, ever be Sinn Fein MPs sitting in the British Houses of Parliament.
8. weka 8

   11 June 2017 at 11:27 am

   Survation.‏ @Survation

   Public say PM Should resign post election by 49-38%
   Labour polling 5% ahead of Conservatives
   Survation for MOS:
   http://mailchi.mp/survation/post-election-poll-for-the-mail-on-sunday-1118541 …
   

   https://twitter.com/Survation/status/873673286827290624

   Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 32m32 minutes ago

   Westminster voting intention:

   LAB: 45% (+5)
   CON: 39% (-3)
   LDEM: 7% (-)
   UKIP: 3% (+1)

   (via @Survation / 10 Jun)
   Chgs. w/ GE2017
   

   https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/873674408224862210
   • dukeofurl 8.1

     11 June 2017 at 11:36 am

     Which means what ?
     They just had an election. Thats how it works.

     Its the 650 people in westminster whos votes count . No one else, let alone a tweet.

     The DUP isnt going the wind back the clock in UK – they have it nicely enough in NI, plus any C& S doesnt commit them to any general Tory policies
     • weka 8.1.1

       11 June 2017 at 11:51 am

       They just had an election with a result that is unclear.

       The tweet is of a poll (for what that’s worth). You seem to be assuming that the Tories will form govt and be stable for five years. Lots of people are suggesting that that’s not necessarily true, so polls showing voting intentions is still relevant.

       Plus the whole rise of Corbyn/Labour thing, it’s interesting.
       • dukeofurl 8.1.1.1

         11 June 2017 at 12:31 pm

         The result IS clear. Its a small majority for Conservative with support of DUP. the Westminister method doesnt require 50% +1 of votes , just Mps

         Was a similar situation with Major not that long ago, except it was UUP then. he lasted 5 years

         “John Major formed the Second Major ministry following the 1992 general election. His government fell into minority status on 13 December 1996.
         https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Major_ministry
         • weka 8.1.1.1.1

           11 June 2017 at 12:37 pm

           Yes, I understand that. But government isn’t about the MP vote alone, it’s also about perceptions of competency and people feeling confident. Everyone understands the basic maths, that’s not what’s being discussed here.
           • dukeofurl 8.1.1.1.1.1

             11 June 2017 at 12:42 pm

             We have never had a national party majority from elections in the last 9 years here.
             Do you think that the public were ‘not clear’ and there was ‘no confidence’ ‘for them running the country ?

             The numbers are all that matters. It really is . Plus its the UK, why would anyone here lie awake at night.
           • Poission 8.1.1.1.1.2

             11 June 2017 at 12:49 pm

             The basic maths ie gains and losses in seats by conservatives and labour are counterintuitive (ie inverse to expectations)

             While deepening education divides pull Labour-voting graduates and Conservative-voting school-leavers ever further apart, the traditional class divides that have structured politics in Britain for generations seem to have been inverted this year.

             Labour, founded as the party of the working class, and focused on redistributing resources from the rich to the poor, gained the most ground in 2017 in seats with the largest concentrations of middle-class professionals and the rich. The Conservatives, long the party of capital and the middle class, made their largest gains in the poorest seats of England and Wales. Even more remarkably, after years of austerity, the Conservatives’ advance on 2015 was largest in the seats where average incomes fell most over the past five years, while the party gained no ground at all in the seats where average incomes rose most.

             https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/11/new-electoral-map-for-britain-revenge-of-remainers-to-upending-class-politics
9. greywarshark 9

   11 June 2017 at 12:29 pm

   This is riveting stuff. No-one should be taking any interest in television fiction in
   present times anyway, not with the fantastic facts turning up. But sure, truth is stranger than fiction.

   Reading this post and the comments with the knowledge and information level that appears so high, I feel that I am watching a chess play being described by those at their peak.

   The complexities revealed, dissected, grilled, turned over and grilled on the other side; the hands-on banquet matches in drama that from The Cook, the Thief, His Wife and Her Lover.

   And we are connected to all that happens. The shipwreck of the pirate ship Britannica would likely sail off like the Crimson Assurance and then wash up on our shores. If that happened it might have deteriorated to the level of the old hulks used for hapless convicts once sent down-under. We urgently want to halt Britannica’s voyage and sinking while crewed by its politicians and the degraded moneyed classes that back them, so go Jeremy and your followers, win this one against the forces of evil.
10. mickysavage 10

    11 June 2017 at 1:45 pm

    Outstanding post Weka.

    I have followed the sectarian divide for a long time and you have managed to capture many nuances in your post. This will not end well for the Conservatives. I suspect that May is toast and I’m not sure what happens next.
    • dukeofurl 10.1

      11 June 2017 at 4:05 pm

      She could do what Corbyn did and restand for election?

      Remember their election process isnt like NZ national.

      This was after Cameron resigned.

      “Conservative MPs voted initially in a series of ballots to determine which two candidates’ names would go forward to a nationwide ballot of Conservative Party members, who would make the final decision. ”

      Eventually all the contenders dropped out so they didnt have a membership election.

      Although the final two would still be decided like the old days , at The Carlton Club.
    • weka 10.2

      11 June 2017 at 4:40 pm

      Thanks micky, most of it’s new to me so I appreciate the feedback.
11. greywarshark 11

    12 June 2017 at 10:10 am

    For anyone following this great post delving (with a spade) into the rich compost of UK politics (just throwing this in for Robert G’s interest), I am putting a link to a thorough-going comment by Bill that is a good follow-up to UK and Brexit study.

    It has been put up in current Open Mike today 12/6 by Bill who says its for geeks, but all could find something of interest to look into as there is a rich choice of links.
    https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-12062017/#comment-1339351

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