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6:00 am, July 7th, 2023 - 71 comments
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Open mike is your post.
For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.
The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).
Step up to the mike …
Here's an intellectual challenge: disinformation & misinformation. Split the difference!
Here's another intellectual challenge:
I'll have a go at that one (first one's too hard). On the face of it, the reporter is telling us that misinformation got up & vacated the msm and 54% of folks strongly believed that it had done so. I recommend deciding the reporter was wrong and meant to write that 54% of folks had exited the msm consumption habit. A feast for grammarians…
Trotter believes the Roy Morgan poll ratings: https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2023/07/07/unstoppable-and-explosive/
He sees
No worries. Ain't a snowball's chance in hell the motley crew in ACT are capable of drafting a constitution let alone achieving a consensus on adopting it.
Please stop re-posting Daily Blog nonsense here. If people what to read it, they can do it for themselves. We can do without Trotter’s over-egged angstsy boomer racism.
Somewhat presupposes political initiatives advocating constitutional reform lack relevance tho. I'm tempted to agree with you but we must proceed on the basis of evidence.
First, you have a party heading north of 15% in the polls advocating it. According to the leftist, that is – I haven't noticed them doing so myself yet.
Second, this other leftist ex-PM has been doing so for quite a while:
@ sanctuary..
What is the problem with diverse points of view..?
Do you yearn for a (pro-nuke) echo chamber…?
He takes a while to get there..but trotters observation is a valid one..
Does he, or is it just a chance to over-extend a metaphor with a slather of florid hyperbole? Perhaps he is bored and longs for some sort of upheaval, and isn't too fussy about what sort. Mostly though, he just needs a good editor.
I did wonder about that. A career essayist always needs a timely angle to develop into a thesis. Dog goes for bone![enlightened enlightened](https://cdn2.thestandard.org.nz/wp-content/plugins/ark-wysiwyg-comment-editor/ckeditor/plugins/smiley/images/lightbulb.png?x42494)
Trotter really does need an editor..
He takes an age to make his point..
And he does that volcano metaphor until way past when the magma has hardened..
But I agree with the point he is making..
Namely the significance of the 7.9 for the maori party in the latest roy morgan poll..
That there is a coalescing consensus round tpm..that is going on within maori political circles..(and why wouldn't they..?..)
And one of the drivers of this is the rise of the racist far-right act party..and their vows to roll back any affirmative action..to tear up the treaty..etc..etc..maori-bashing all the way up to the election..
And for maori..voting for tpm is the most effective way of pushing back against this racist agenda..
I expect tpm to do better than this 7.9% at the actual election…
And as for the election results.. whichever way it goes we are going to have a radical government..
Either the milquetoast national party..their genitals firmly in the grip of act..tearing up the treaty etc..
Or the milquetoast labour party…their genitals firmly in the grip of tpm and the greens..
Where we will see major moves on environmental/poverty issues…
The choice for voters could not be clearer/more focused..
Those days of moaning about lab/nats being tweedle dum and tweedle see…are consigned to history..
The change-train is a'coming..
Good comment, Phillip. Perhaps you have view from a different generation to me. If so, it's helpful. Such a huge move in Maoridom would be historic.
No significance that I can see. One poll doesn't indicate a trend.
Looking at the polling over recent time, that 7+% looks somewhat like an outlier. TPM have tended been in the 3.5% to 4.5% range (way better than where they were at the start of the year).
I'll get interested if TPM get a few more high polls.
Is anyone doing a poll of polls now?
Poll of polls Weka https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election
The trend is quite apparent – Natz on a steady slide under Luxon, Labour on the way up under Chippie.
Act will gain in proportion to Natz loss, while the Greens will remain steady (though I expect them to do better on election day) and the TPM will gain +5%.
A third term Labour/Greens/TPM government, ya hoo!
That was what I linked to on wikipedia for 2023. Right up to date, and generally favouring a left government at present.
The right really doesn't have traction. Compare it to the wikipedia poll pages for 2005 (probably the closest recent analogy). Then have a look at 2008 and 2017 for what two different types of a opposition winning combo looks like.
I don't think the Luxon has quite the political pull power of a Jacinda.
Meanwhile Barry Soper reckons there will be a change of government, coz of the numpties around Hipkins (this is just a reprise of the it's only Clark or Ardern lines).
Barry Soper is pretty useless at any kind of analysis. He seems to hoick most of his reckons out of his arse after having a boozy afternoon as far I can see.
But as you point out, he doesn't have wide repository of talking points (or 'noisome dags' as I prefer to frame them) and frequently recycles them.
I tend to only notice him if he does something surprising like being (in retrospect) actually right about something. Which means I haven't noticed him much for the last 25 years. He is one of those people who just claims analytical skills rather than exhibiting it.
Incidentally this kind of crap was what I would up doing a lot of work on in my youth…..
![Noiseome dag](https://www.interest.co.nz/sites/default/files/styles/full_width/public/feature_images/dags.GIF?itok=h4NH6zdV)
Matt Whitehead reckons it's technically not a poll of polls. I don't really understand the difference despite him explaining it to me.
https://twitter.com/MJWhitehead/status/1635538144006385664
I assume the wiki is good enough for our purposes in terms of trend.
And I'd agree with him. However with the paucity of polls, the piss-poor sampling techniques used, and the sample sizes, no amount of massaging is going to do much to the lousy data.
Basically he is referring to the kind of data massaging that would work in the US or UK because of the number of polls and the frequency with which they are done. Even there it is fraught with actuality (ie elections) disagreeing with the elegant cross-poll analysis.
For the purposes of getting a general idea of trends (the only thing worth looking at), whoever is doing the wikipedia one has got it about right.
what do you make the GP swing around so much? Even allowing for the RM having outliers, there seems to be a lot of variation.
Statistical variation with smaller numbers plays a part. Only takes a dozen, out of the typical numbers polled, to change the Green result.
Suggests that Green voters are not evenly spread throughout the population also.
oh yeah, I hadn't considered that. So if the 1,000 or whatever people that week happened to be less urban, then less Greens? Wouldn't they be adjusting the pollees for things like rural/urban?
Of course they must have some weightings.
But that is less effective with smaller sample numbers. Those polling Green are in the tens in the normal sample size, while National and Labour are in the hundreds.
It only takes a few differences the sampled population between polls.
The scary correlation, is that voters for the Libertarian lunatics in ACT, appear to be more evenly spread
Something else to factor in… which supports the case I am making..is that maori are notoriously under-polled…
I suspect Māori, like young people, are also under represented in the voting, in both Māori and general rolls, which would cancel out the effect to an extent.
Geoffrey Miller is the Democracy Project’s geopolitical analyst and writes on current New Zealand foreign policy and related geopolitical issues.
A globe-trotting PM blithely joining Aotearoa to NATO while an election campaign gets under way in his absence is just the sort of smart move one would expect from Labour so I get why he's dreaming about it. Nothing wrong with outflanking the Nats on the right. It's a time-tested and proven strategy.
HISTORY.
The sidelining of George Kennan with the continuance of NATO and expansion after the end of the Cold War (and end of the Warsaw Pact). And the consequences of this in Georgia and Ukraine (colour revolution).
China being allowed into the WTO order without formally ending the Korean War and removing American troops or autonomy for Taiwan within China as per Hong Kong. This led to the South China Sea moves and the American response – promotion of democracy in Hong Kong (the 1997 agreement only allowed autonomy till 2047), The resulting crackdown leading to American determination to secure Taiwan's continued self-governance.
USA unilateralism in Iraq and the NATO breach of the no fly zone in Libya leading to the development of BRICS.
The Russia-China alliance leading to Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (includes central Asian states of the former USSR, Pakistan and India and now Iran) and BRI going through Pakistani Kashmir leads to India playing a dual game within the QUAD (all while a BRIC and in the SCO group).
PRESENT
NATO is seeking non European collective security partners – given the UN is compromised by the veto.
Given our historic UN multi-lateralism bi-partisanship – this is easy for Labour.
NATO is also offering to support the containment of China – with partners such as those in the QUAD.
ASIA-PACIFIC
We have a nuclear free Pacific policy – so are not in ANZUS or AUKUS (but are security partners of Oz and might join up to AUKUS 11 – technology development co-operation).
We affirm the International Law of the Sea Conventions, thus have issues with China in the South China Sea. But not in Taiwan.
For us, the issue is not so much involvement in the containment of a nation that is now our major trading partner, but diplomacy.
Outflanking National on the right, bollocks.
It’s so centrist, that National says nothing. They’ll adopt it.
Excellent analysis & I bow to your grasp of the geopolitical relevance.![smiley smiley](https://cdn2.thestandard.org.nz/wp-content/plugins/ark-wysiwyg-comment-editor/ckeditor/plugins/smiley/images/regular_smile.png?x42494)
Outflanking National on the right, bollocks. It’s so centrist, that National says nothing. They’ll adopt it.
Only when in govt. Makes more sense for them to differentiate during the campaign – there are still voters who don't believe they're part of the same team…
Agreed SPC
If our foreign policy is to remain grounded in preserving some kind of rules-based global order in an increasingly multipolar world, we're much better off picking the "side" (such as it is) that's actually committed to preserving said order.
It's an inevitable choice irrespective of what political party is in power here.
Unless we want to abandon multilateralism, lose whatever street cred and trust we've accumulated in our relationships abroad, and sell out to whoever gives us the shiniest baubles irrespective of the political system we'd be implicitly supporting.
That's an option too. Just an incredibly shit one.
While Russia traditionally really dislikes a rules based global order.
The Chinese have done really well out of it once they decided to (mostly) be part of it. In many ways they have been pretty assiduous about following it and are getting better at it (admittedly only if you blur your vision and ignore a few things like the PCA Law of the Sea 2016 (?) decision on South China sea).
Dennis Frank – you must have a lot of time on your hands to indulge yourself so frequently here – up early, trawling sites to find something to enable your intellect to respond to. Be nice to have a variety of commenters though.
I deliberately waited a couple of hours due to Anne's similar hope yesterday, but none of them wrote in. There seems to be a significant dearth of leftists wanting to contribute here. As a radical centrist, I notice the lack from that part of the political spectrum since there was a huge ferment of such folk during my student years half a century back. I associated with them as a kindred spirit.
It's an interesting question on the interface between sociology and political activism: why has the ebb-tide on leftism gone out so far? I don't believe left-wingers are essentially stupid – which is what their collective non-performance indicates. There's something deeper happening in society to produce this mass effect.
You are posting a bit too much Dennis.
But I gave myself a year off until recently, BG. I don't like Labour's sleep-walk. Aotearoa deserves better, and from the Greens too. Stimulating thought processes is a deliberate consciousness-raising strategy to those who deploy it – for the purpose of being helpful, on my part.
Anyone who doesn't like the consequences really ought to focus on themselves rather than me. I suspect leftists may be collectively baffled by their lack of traction. Well, the solution to that problem is to figure out why – not grizzle at anyone who tries to help them do so.
I didn't say what you were posting was a problem, just that it was a little too much. But see my post re Labour and the Greens below. All is not lost!
Yes, there's a real basis upon which to proceed, true. However the campaign is a political marketing exercise & I see no such endeavour on the left yet.
To me framing is the essence of that. Somehow they must weave an overview for the left that makes them seem a viable alternative to National/ACT.
Framing is then the nifty way of capturing the essence of that alternative – effectively enough to distill it into an impression on the minds of floating voters. Vox pops are the standard news media technique for flushing that out of the minds of the people and providing it to political marketers as feedback – so they can see if their message is percolating thro the social ecosystem.
From here on in, I'll be watching such media carefully to discern the zeitgeist. Currently we just have underwhelming by the Nat/Lab duo, with polling reflecting that. Lull before the storm??
Maybe a 600 post per day limit, works elsewhere I hear.
I prefer to give personal attention when required.
Always fun when people give me a opportunity to demonstrate what 4 decades of training on the public nets does to an inherent attribute towards being really nasty and condescending.
But Dennis doesn't seem to deserve my attention.
Having been on the receiving end of your attention once or twice some years ago, that's a relief. I have tried to attune to the ethos here since then.
I realise that being a Labour voter you'll be irritated whenever I do a critique of something they've done or are doing, but I try to give them credit when due and one such occasion occurred earlier today when the PM gave a foreign policy speech. Heard it reported on the RNZ news & thought far out!
He got it right. Not just that, the key points that the editorial staff selected from his speech for their report indicated that they got resonance with the media too. That made him come across as an authentic leader for Aotearoa.
Thought it worthwhile to acknowledge that & I'll write about it on DR. I reckon it's auspicious & could be a real boost for Labour's prospects…
What's stopping you?
I agree.
People:
should be applauded.
Instead it seems to be almost grudging/politics of envy stuff.
If people don't want to read the posts, just scroll on by or make your posts.
Reality if you want to read a good thread, with good intro by Weka and with a good mix of posters, make your way to the science curriculum thread.
Wot shanreagh said..
the easiest way to change that is to comment on the topics you want to see discussed. Anyone can nab the first comment of the day in OM. Or DR
Unless they seem to be depending on it and just trolling.
I still have the little bit of code I wrote a long time ago that would automatically add 12 hours to specific annoying early morning commenters on Open Mike.
Along with the one that refuses high speed comments with a image of a monkey grinning.
tools 😈
A blog without posts is not worth visiting!
Doesn't take much effort to scroll on by.
I assume you mean comments rather than posts, yes?
Yip if your being pedantic, there's official posts posted by the ordained ministers of the standard, then there's freelance post/comments like mr Frank's, then there's ya run of the mill comments like this😉
Ta
'Them's fighting words' Dennis Frank. Hopefully we will have a flurry of interested/interesting posters like we have had in the Science curriculum post.
I don't think Leftism is dead. Take a look at the Green Party tax and social policies. A Wealth Tax, rent controls and livable rental properties, with more to come at the election.
Labour's minimum wage and benefit rises have certainly helped the less well off; the numbers in poverty in NZ are starting to come down. I heard a guy on RNZ the other day saying that the increased minimum wage was encouraging backpackers to take jobs and work longer which is presumably true for locals too.
Under Labour there have been moves favouring public transport (light rail, cheap bus fares, cycleways, investment in rail). More than 10,000 state houses have been added (I saw 14,000 somewhere) and house prices have now fallen significantly from their ridiculous highs-a good thing that is still happening.
http://www.voxy.co.nz/politics/5/405411
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/budget-2023-house-prices-to-fall-21-per-cent-and-not-recover-to-record-highs-until-2027-treasury-says/XXZPA3D7GNBRTIK4LWPBFIKW4I/
A Labour/Green/TPM government will continue this progress. A Luxon/Seymour government will take NZ back to housing bubbles, selling off state houses, tax changes favouring the top 5%, minimum wages frozen, roads of national insignificance and public transport will get crumbs.
Yes, the Greens have some (in my view – excellent) policies that truly differentiate themselves from NAct and Labour. NAct with their rush to make things awful as quickly as possible, and Labour with glacial incremental improvement that is overwhelmed by their love of neoliberal damage.
Now to promote Green policies as much as possible before the election!
My hot take is that the traditional left is dying due to its lack of boldness, desire to provide an actual point of difference from the status quo, and ability to keep it's shit together for longer than an electoral cycle or two.
It makes for good, don't scare the horses, middle-of-the-road, bread and butter politics. But on the flipside makes real progress agonisingly slow and electorally risky.
The question is how to shift the Overton Window back to the left.
It's a matter of time.
A generation without home ownership would have to direct their attention to a regime without CGT (35/36 have one) or estate tax (24/36 have one) and say why not a wealth tax. For a nation without a CGT or estate tax the only alternative is the Greens wealth tax (historic failure to apply a CGT or estate tax catch up).
NACT know this and have a plan.
It's to replace their white boomer vote with an immigrant vote against Maori privilege (an update on their post Rogernmics attack on Maori on welfare).
Thus a government program opposed to UNDRIP implementation, any building on whanau ora and threatening to end WT and the HRC and a re-write of the Treaty – while adopting the US welfare and penal policy model to control "Maori". It would also not surprise if they were to criminalise public space protest.
A bleak prospect indeed SPC.
I agree exactly SPC. While the noise appears in the white corner, the points are being scored quietly with migrants from South East Asia and China.
Homophobic organisation which promotes the chemical castration of same sex attracted and neurodiverse children looses its attempt to close down a charity which supports Lesbian, Gay and Bi-sexual people.
"A transgender rights group has lost its case to have a gay rights organisation stripped of its charitable status in what is believed to be the first case of its kind in the UK.
Mermaids, which supports transgender, non-binary and gender diverse children and their families, had appealed against the decision of the Charity Commission to grant LGB Alliance charitable status in 2021.
It is thought to be the first time in the UK that a charity has sought to have the charitable status of another removed".
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/lgb-alliance-charity-commission-london-jk-rowling-lgbt-b2370444.html
And others call them "transphobic" for being formed
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/matt-lucas-lgb-alliance-trans-b1929993.html.
But at least they did not try and deny another group charity status over the disagreement.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/rosie-duffield-lia-thomas-lbc-yvette-cooper-anneliese-dodds-b2045520.html
It is not just a "simple" disagreement. Gender ideology denies even the very existence of "same sex attraction". We are all supposed to be "homogenderal". We say that is homophobic as hell, and that is before we get into what they are telling children about sex and sexuality.
Linguistic imperialism (narrative control) is what it is. Possibly better put as "homosexualphobic", as not every lesbian, gay or bi person wants to be assimilated into the masculine or feminine or non-binary gender identity empire.
It possibly speaks to one difference within the community – LGB and LGB+. The other being lesbian women solidarity with safe women's spaces, which is a wider society issue.
It would be best if the adults sorted out co-existence in respectful ways without involving the children … there is a difference between educating children about society around them (larger than their own family) without placing them within that world while they are developing.
Adults are a bit complicated (sex, gender, sexuality etc).
https://studylib.net/doc/9063804/transgender-article
I've never heard that term before, but it's spot on. I'd add "linguistic chauvanism" as well. The redefining of accepted terms with fierce enforcement, and shrieks of bigotry and Nazism to anyone who doesn't agree or even understand.
And the other side of the story. Trans youth charity Mermaids was supported by a coalition of LGBTQ+ groups in the challenge to LGB Alliance's charity status. They argued the group "shouldn’t be recognised as a charity because of it ‘exclusively focuses’ on anti-trans campaigning and not on the promotion of lesbian, gay and bisexual rights.” The LGB Alliance HQ is at 55 Tufton St, that nest of UK neo-lib think tanks.
"The tribunal…found Mermaids [due to being a charity itself] does not have legal standing to challenge the Charity Commission’s decision to recognise the LGB Alliance. Though it may be painted as such, the ruling is not a win or a vindication for the LGB Alliance. The ‘gender-critical’ group escaped judgement on a technicality."
"In its ruling, the tribunal stated that its two-person panel was split on the issue of whether the LGB Alliance is rightfully a charity. It declined to make a hypothetical conclusion on the issue. The tribunal also noted that the Charity Commission was seen to have concerns regarding the LGB Alliance going “beyond the boundaries of civilised debate”, and said these concerns “were well-founded”.
You need to be careful with these so called LGBT++++++ groups. Like Stonewall – many of them are now reliant on the T+++++++ for their funding.
In 2001, Stonewall set up the Diversity Champions Programme to act as a stamp of approval that indicated a company properly supported gay employees.
Then things changed; and Stonewall's focus moved away from a genuine desire to help gay people to enforcing its own theories about gender identity."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11564363/I-helped-Stonewall-today-plead-business-public-body-reconsider.html?fbclid=IwAR0BVBsDuGloVgNrcbsDbIr6kXn5wK7t0qfJolqsWL5sW_yiJVipO941Zy0
The daily mail..?
That hotbed of reactionary agitprop..?
That total rag.. perhaps even a benchmark for reactionary rags..?
You cite this…?
Heh…!
Good luck with that.
Visubversa…The Trots?
what's the technicality?
the T+ activists have run quite the propaganda campaign on this. Pink News can keep that running as long as it likes, but where is the evidence?
Meanwhile, in Feb 2021 Dave Hewitt wrote this fact check on one of the early accusations about LGBA. This highlights a number of common themes in such accusations, and makes a connection with Pink News who also took part in the LGBA hate trans propaganda.
https://www.voidifremoved.co.uk/p/fact-checking-oz-katerji
LGBA's website addressing some of the myths about them,
https://lgballiance.org.uk/facts/
And their purpose,
https://lgballiance.org.uk/policies/
The Charity Commission's original decision April 2021,
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/lgb-alliance/lgb-alliance-full-decision
The tribunal ruling.
https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Mermaids-v-Charity-Commission-judgment-060723.pdf
Hector has fallen. 10 years after the founding of the Taxpayer Union, DPF has retired, wary of the fight against
But the light has not gone
There are good people, who do not agree with Jordan and his allies on the Board.
PS Chasing 3 and 6 year olds around the house would get tiring.
Link?
Just an email this morning.
This on their site.
https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/co_founder_retiring
The insanity of the Australian Liberal Party exposed over Robodebt.
NZ could/should have the same type of Royal Commission over MSD.
Bennett abused her power as a minister, using the media to attack individuals who complained about the impact of the brutality MSD reforms had created.
We also need a serious look at the p-house debacle. A Royal Commission into this would help as well.
40 minute video follows, the first 6 minutes covers all the key points.