Open mike 12/02/2020

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, February 12th, 2020 - 140 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:

Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

140 comments on “Open mike 12/02/2020 ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. veutoviper 1
    12 February 2020 at 8:01 am

    Yesterday was the first day of the 2020 sitting year for Parliament. Usual business was suspended for the day to allow Members to remember and share their personal memories of the late Right Honorable Mike Moore. Speeches started with Jacinda Ardern as PM followed by leaders of the other political parties, with other individual MPs then following.

    Here is a link to the 12 speeches

    https://www.parliament.nz/en/watch-parliament/ondemand?keyword=Government+Motion&from=2020-02-11&to=2020-02-11&subject=&person=&stage=

    The initial speeches were fairly conservative eulogies with all leaders essentially in agreement over the huge contribution made by Mike Moore, but things loosened up when the other MPs stood to recall their memories.

    In particular, Ron Mark started out using notes but quickly dispensed with these and launched into one of the most personal from the heart speeches I ever recall hearing in the House . At the same time it was one of the most humourous recounts of behind the scenes memories of Mark and Moore’s relationship since Mark’s time with the Labour Party when Mark ran unsuccessfully for Labour in the Selwyn electorate. Mark supported his recounting with an impressive number of Labour Party documents and policies attributable to Mike Moore. from his own personal archives.

    If you watch nothing else, I urge you to watch Mark’s speech – it is 12 minutes you won’t regret!

    The speeches following Mark by Brownlee, Damian O’Connor and Trevor Mallard also carried on with more personal and humourous memories. All in all a great send off for Mike. And impressive in the recognition of Yvonne’s contribution as Mike’s partner in life and politics.

    Drat – the Mark video came up properly as a picture but doesn’t now.

    • Jimmy 1.1
      12 February 2020 at 9:04 am

      I only partly saw on the news last night, a poll saying Ron Mark was by far the most preferred person to take over NZ First if Winston wasn't there. Result surprised me. Did anyone see the whole thing as I missed where the poll was taken. I've always presumed Shane Jones would be the eventual NZF leader.

      • veutoviper 1.1.1
        12 February 2020 at 9:43 am

        That's interesting, Jimmy. I did not see that as I rarely watch TV – which News was it on? TVNZ or Newshub?

        Re Jones taking over as Leader of NZF eventually, I don't believe that will happen for a number of reasons. I actually discussed this subject in a reply to Dennis Frank on open Mike at 2.1.1.2 http://11 February 2020 at 9:29 am Here is some of that reply (no point in re-inventing the wheel!):

        The NZF party of today is a very different animal to the one that existed pre 2008 with Peters spending his time in the wilderness revamping the party into one supported by a much wider age range and range of views to that previously. Both Lprent and I have written here on TS on this many times over recent years.

        Sure, Jonesy is a bit of a weak link but the other NZF MPs have been doing a very credible job in their various Ministerial roles and support roles – eg Tracey Martin and Ron Mark as well as Peters himself as Minister of Foreign Affairs.

        We don't hear much of Fletcher Tabuteau, but IMO he, rather than Jonesy, is the one who is being groomed as the next leader as reflected in his roles not only as Deputy Leader, but also as understudy to both Peters and Jonesy as Parliamentary Under Secretary for Foreign Affairs and Parliamentary Under Secretary for Regional Economic Development.

        To add to that, both Tracey Martin and Ron Mark have previously been Deputy Leader of NZF. As I understand it, because other members of Tracey Martin's family have had considerable influence on the Party (eg her mother Ann Martin was President for many years) it was considered better to spread the influence, hence Ron Mark becoming Deputy and he then handed onto Tabuteau.

        Re Jones, I cannot provide any links but I seem to recall that Jones himself – both when he was still with Labour and since moving to NZF – has implied that he is not interested in party leadership roles and is more comfortable doing roles like his present one as "Champion of the Regions" and the similar role he undertook under the previous Nat Govt in relation to economic development etc in the Pacific. As I say, I cannot provide links to this but I have a pretty good memory despite older age.

        • Jimmy 1.1.1.1
          12 February 2020 at 11:25 am

          Thanks for that. It was TV3 news I'm pretty sure.

          Interesting comments too re: NZF.

          • veutoviper 1.1.1.1.1
            12 February 2020 at 11:56 am

            Thanks for the heads-up Jimmy as I have now found the TV3 item and here is the link – another Tova O'Brien special as part of the Newshub poll released the other night.

            https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/02/revealed-who-kiwis-think-should-be-nz-first-leader-if-winston-peters-stands-down.html

            The results are interesting with Ron Mark indeed coming out well ahead, both generally and with NZF voters.

            I don't find that surprising, nor the fact that Fletcher Tabuteau barely rated as he keeps – or is kept – fairly low profile. Nevertheless Tabuteau has been associated with NZF since its inception 25 years ago at about 20 years of age, and at c 45/46 currently, he still has a lot of miles left on the clock. At 66, Mark is 20 years older and thus only seven years younger than Peters and I wonder whether he would really want the job.

            I am surprised that Tracey Martin did not rate higher but she did take on a rather poisoned chalice (or challenge) in the form of Oranga Tamariki. I have a lot of respect for her in doing so as it is going to take a lot to turn that nightmare around.

            Time will tell – and there is the possiblity that NZF may not make it at the upcoming election although I would be surprised if that actually happens. There are a lot of oldies who know who we have to thank for our Super Gold cards! LOL.

    • JanM 1.2
      12 February 2020 at 1:31 pm

      I was watching fom the balcony in parliament yesterday and I agree that Ron Marks contribution stood out – warm, funny, wise and clear. He would make a good NZ First leader, and sooner rather than later I think as I believe from my observations that Winston's health is starting to fail

    • ianmac 2.1
      12 February 2020 at 9:22 am

      What about the tens of thousands received by the National machine. Those which are visible paint a picture of influence on a very grand scale. Investigate that?

      National have received several millions in total but of course all donations were deliberate and fairly legal.

      • Anne 2.1.1
        12 February 2020 at 11:14 am

        Yep.

        I've never voted for Peters and NZ First but lets be fair…

        National and ACT have been indulging in this kind of fiscal subterfuge for decades. ACT started doing it in the 1990s and National have been doing it even longer. Anyone with any historical political knowledge (which counts out half the current political journos) knows it.

        If the media is going to call out NZ First fair enough. But tell the whole story and acknowledge the fact National and ACT do it too. I can't speak for Labour or the Greens but given their donations tend to be much smaller amounts – but more numerous in quantity – I think it is unlikely.

        Edit: And if some smarty pants tries to misconstrue my last sentence:

        90% of Labour’s donors are not rich people and they donate small amounts (less than $100) but probably do it more frequently.

      • gsays 2.1.2
        12 February 2020 at 3:13 pm

        Whataboutism?

        Yes the nats did that.

        The original comment was about NZ1st. There seems to be an effort round these parts to minimise Winston's shenanagins.

        When NZ 1st say they will review their practices, I call bulldust.

        The NZ1st foundation was formed with the guidance of Peter's lawyer. I don't believe for a moment that Peter's isn't aware of what was going on. It sounds pretty legal

        The whole thing stinks to high heaven.

        This is what corruption looks like in an relatively non corrupt country.

    • Enough is Enough 2.2
      12 February 2020 at 10:19 am

      For years we have suspected, but have had no real evidence that government policy on the racing industry was being bought.

      The government has provided tax breaks to this morally corrupt industry, that feeds off gambling and animal cruelty.

      Winston Peters is the Racing Minister. Can we really trust that he had no idea what was going on with the New Zealand First Foundation as he is claiming, when the Racing Industry that he serves was funneling money into it??

      • solkta 2.2.1
        12 February 2020 at 11:36 am

        The whole idea of having a Minister for Racing is about as idiotic as you can get imo. Now we have the proof of what it is all about.

        And yes this industry is based on animal cruelty and gambling.

        • Enough is Enough 2.2.1.1
          12 February 2020 at 1:45 pm

          He should at the very least be stood down from that Portfolio pending the investigation.

          How on earth can he remain there?

    • Chris T 2.3
      12 February 2020 at 12:15 pm

      Dodgy as ****

  3. Sacha 3
    12 February 2020 at 8:13 am

    Concert FM hoopla shows whose views count the most https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/02/12/1030591/concert-fms-lesson-in-realpolitik

    This real-time exercise in realpolitik for RNZ’s board and the Government illustrates where power lies in New Zealand. They only needed to look at the number and demographics of the Concert FM fans.

    • OnceWasTim 3.1
      12 February 2020 at 8:39 am

      and then there's this:

      https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2018733749/former-prime-minister-helen-clark-on-concert-changes just a few minutes ago.

      Both Hickey and Clark have good points to make.

      But given what has been going on at RNZ, all this was as much about a couple of commercially oriented master-of-the-universe egos as it was about creating an alternative network with instant appeal.

      Joe Bennett – in his normal mischievous way is on Stuff this morning channeling a 'yoof': https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/119415619/dear-rnz-bosses-young-people-arent-an-homogeneous-herd

      If Thompson and co had been more concerned about what they perceive as the problem, they could have quietly worked on a third network and allowed it to evolve and be discovered by the 'demographic' naturally. (Even built on the BRAND "The Wireless")

      It ain't over yet. The bloody board either let themselves down too, or were too busy trying to be down with the kuds. When you look at their backgrounds though a majority would seem to be quite comfortable with what's been going on (over a long time)

      • pat 3.1.1
        12 February 2020 at 9:11 am

        "If you doubt the variety of young people, cast your mind back to your own class at secondary school, ranging as it did from the thug at the back to the scholar at the front, via the athlete in the middle and the aesthete to one side, plus the dubious creep who later, oh my god, went into local politics. In short, we young people, like you older people, are as various as the pebbles on the beach and any radio station that tries to appeal to all of us will appeal to none of us."

        https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/119415619/dear-rnz-bosses-young-people-arent-an-homogeneous-herd

        Gotta love Joe Bennet…straight to the point

      • Adrian Thornton 3.1.2
        12 February 2020 at 1:41 pm

        Personally I am not surprised that hierarchy at RNZ has exposed themselves in this way as being so out of touch with their local communities, just look at steady decline of National radio as a serious new source over the past couple of decades, it really is now a just hollow shell of it's former self, are real lightweight.

        And now (and under Labour of course) they totally disregard and dismiss one of the very few sources that offers even a breath of high minded culture for free into our communities..fucking Liberals, always so lowbrow, always finding ways to make life just that bit more shitty and crappy….yuk.

    • veutoviper 3.2
      12 February 2020 at 9:16 am

      IMO that is a very one-sided view of the situation and I am surprised and disappointed at Hickey's take on the situation. This view that only white elitists listen to Concert FM or listen to and participate in classical music is just so closed minded.

      It takes no account of the contribution NZ's multicultural and in particular, Maori and Pacifica, communities for example have made to classical music both here in NZ and worldwide.

      In opera alone, Maori account for a good proportion of NZ artists who have reached the world stage such as Inia Te Wiata, Keri Te Kanawa, Kawiti Waetford, ManaTe Hapuku, and Phillip Rhodes to name just a few.

      In the same field, in more recent years, our Samoan community has also contributed an impressive array of world recognised stars – for example, Moses Mackay, Pene Patu and Amatai Patu both individually and together as Sol3 Mio – our own version of the Three Tenors. Other Samoan NZers on the world opera circuit include Marlena Devoe and Benson Wilson – as is Amina Edris both in her own right and in company with her husband, Pene Patu. Amina is Egyptian-born but raised and trained in opera in NZ.

      I could go on – at length – but will leave it at that. Many of the above artists did not come from well off homes – far from it. And they have provided good role models for others to follow in their footsteps – and support for others to do so.

      But I am surprised and disappointed at the ignorance and closed mindedness that has emerged, including on here at TS, as the Concert FM issue has emerged.

      • RedLogix 3.2.1
        12 February 2020 at 9:25 am

        But I am surprised and disappointed at the ignorance and closed mindedness that has emerged, including on here at TS, as the Concert FM issue has emerged.

        In part it's a consequence of the way identity politics subsumes all individual interests and capacities. It casts a broad net over whole categories of people and dumps them into big silos with a couple of fat, lazy labels on them.

        • Nic the NZer 3.2.1.1
          12 February 2020 at 12:34 pm

          There is an overwhelming national interest in deplatforming classical music. /sarc.

          Its a conclusion you can only reach by choosing not to think about who running ConcertFM benefits, and who running it opresses (e.g nobody).

          And frankly the views suggesting its ConcertFM or Skypath are equally dim. What is the suggestion, that some roading contractors should take up radio engineering instead? The two are not economically or fiscally related so NZ should happily invest in both.

        • McFlock 3.2.1.2
          12 February 2020 at 1:48 pm

          Funny, I was thinking the opposite.

          Because what you call "identity politics" isn't about dumping labels on people, it's about people choosing how they describe themselves.

          My suspicion was that someone was looking at a line item in their budget, they didn't listen to it personally, and they just assumed that its core audience was the stereotypical old/rich/white crowd beloved by hollywood screenwriters.

          • RedLogix 3.2.1.2.1
            12 February 2020 at 2:13 pm

            it's about people choosing how they describe themselves.

            And invariably when they do this, they become more than anything else individuals, with a unique mix of heritage, family, experiences, interests and capacities. For example, someone may very well describe themselves as 'Samoan', but in reality this might be only one of many equally important aspects of who they are.

            People do not choose one identity, they are a bewildering mix of them. While on the one hand we are social creatures driven to belong, we also value highly our freedom to choose where we belong, when and in which context. Much more nuanced than the crude idioms of identity politics allows for.

            • McFlock 3.2.1.2.1.1
              12 February 2020 at 2:24 pm

              You described identity politics and then followed that description with a sentence that demonstrates you don't realise what you did.

          • Nic the NZer 3.2.1.2.2
            12 February 2020 at 4:24 pm

            "Because what you call "identity politics" isn't about dumping labels on people, it's about people choosing how they describe themselves."

            Your saying comment 3 is self descriptive? The problematic kinds of identity politics invariably involve talking in very broad generalisations about a group (or between groups) of which the author is not representative. Also very typically some form of amateur phychology is infered to imply which group is morally superior.

            On the other hand cases of people self identifying are so harmless they barely appear worthy of mention (Elizibeth Warren not with-standing).

            • McFlock 3.2.1.2.2.1
              12 February 2020 at 4:34 pm

              "Let's not treat [people who identify as X] like shit" can be problematic for people who disagree with that statement.

              • Nic the NZer …
                12 February 2020 at 6:39 pm

                In this case the people who seem to identify as the down with the youf executive of RNZ seem to be getting the shit, and their beliefs are problematic for people who like listening to Classical Music. There is something pretty fubar with the framing of this in identity politics terms of some elite demographic vs whoever they are opressing by enjoying Classical music on the radio.

                If this wasn't characteristic of these IP arguments I wouldn't be making this argument of course, but it is.

                • McFlock …
                  12 February 2020 at 7:18 pm

                  Except that the implicit assumption is that only the "elite demographic" listen to classical music, which is an assumption about all the various groups made without listening to any of those groups to start with. Which has more in common with colonialism than it does with "identity politics".

                  • Nic the NZer …
                    12 February 2020 at 7:46 pm

                    Colonialism aye. In fact I think the only reason I am having this discussion is because of my unconscious Colonialism. Of course consciously I think its because I think having a discussion based on gross generalisations about caricatures of groups produces nonsense, but in the back there is always some colonialism going on there.

                    • McFlock …
                      12 February 2020 at 8:45 pm

                      Now tell us how you feel about "identity politics".

                    • Nic the NZer []
                      12 February 2020 at 10:12 pm

                      I already did. You responded by trying to start a discussion where you apply amateur phychology (motivated by Colonialism) to a group (ConcertFM audience) to negatively caricature that group. The argument is gibberish but you thus ignored the reasonable concerns over the decision (should RNZ be run like a commercial station?).

                    • McFlock …
                      12 February 2020 at 10:34 pm

                      Who said anything about "motivated by colonialism"?

                      I just said that imposing a collection of labels upon others (rather than listening to what labels they might choose for themselves) was more like colonialism that it was like "identity politics".

                      In all the discussions about "elitist" concert radio listeners, have you seen an actual breakdown of the concertFM audience? Standard market research with self-reported socio-economic data? Because I haven't. Which suggests to me that any description of the concertFM audience is probably:

                      • an assumption
                      • that imposes labels like "elite"
                      • upon the audience

                      instead of being based on the labels they select for themselves.

                      What you describe is imposition of labels with no regard for consent. "Identity politics" is about the freedom to honestly choose labels for oneself. From pronouns to any other aspect of identity.

      • Ad 3.2.2
        12 February 2020 at 10:36 am

        Fully agree with you 100%.

        The Pacifika and Maori contribution to classical music – particularly in vocal and choral – has been a revelation in the last 40 years.

        It seriously worries me that a massive tradition of local music composition and performance is being proposed to simply be automated onto an AM station. WTF.

        Well done to those who organised the petition – it clearly had an immediate effect upon our current Prime Minister .

        Thank God for someone like Helen Clark who is giving it right back to them.

        • Sacha 3.2.2.1
          12 February 2020 at 11:41 am

          a massive tradition of local music composition

          Same question – who are some of those composers for us to be aware of?

          • Ad 3.2.2.1.1
            12 February 2020 at 11:49 am

            Go to ConcertFM while you still can and find out.

            Or go to your nearest arts festival.

            They are played and discussed at both.

            Educate yourself.

            • Sacha 3.2.2.1.1.1
              12 February 2020 at 12:10 pm

              If it's a 'massive tradition', I'd expect to already know more than Lilburn and Psathas.

              • Ad …
                12 February 2020 at 12:22 pm

                Like I said, tune in more and you'll learn.

                The facilities are there for you to do so.

                • Sacha …
                  12 February 2020 at 12:28 pm

                  Where do I tune in to hear more local electronica compositions?

                  • veutoviper …
                    12 February 2020 at 12:49 pm

                    GeorgeFM apparently – and googling electronica music NZ will give you masses of links to actual events etc.

                  • veutoviper …
                    12 February 2020 at 1:41 pm

                    Which also reminds me of another NZ composer of worldwide reputation whose compositions range over and blend a number of different genres including electronic with orchestral – Rhian Sheehan.

                    [Funny that because I have known him most of his life (= wider whanau). LOL]

                    Rhian features quite often on RNZ National music shows and presumably elsewhere across the spectrum of music radio stations.

                    For something different, you could always visit your local planetarium, eg Auckland Planetarium/Skydome, as Rhian composes the music for many of the shows featured at many planetariums worldwide – eg I think the latest one is "We are Astronomers" narrated by former Dr Who, David Tarrant or I might be totally out of date.

                    • Sacha …
                      12 February 2020 at 5:06 pm

                      Rhian features quite often on RNZ National music shows and presumably elsewhere across the spectrum of music radio stations.

                      Student radio, that's all. Love his work.

              • Sacha …
                12 February 2020 at 12:22 pm

                Oh, and Gareth Farr.

      • Sacha 3.2.3
        12 February 2020 at 11:36 am

        That's a good list of performers. Which composers would you say are contributing to New Zealand's musical culture?

      • OnceWasTim 3.2.4
        12 February 2020 at 12:14 pm

        I'll pick out the bits I like about Hickey's contribution:

        He seemed to be learning in real time this week after Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern used an interview on RNZ's Morning Report on Monday to express "frustration" that the planned "gutting" and relegation of Concert FM to a robo-station on AM had been announced before the Government had had to chance to come up with an alternative FM channel.

        "I think we obviously didn't explain it clearly enough, and when we were talking about our plan, there was an assumption that it wouldn't be obvious initially that the FM transmission would be affected, and I think that was just a glitch in the communications," (struggling much?)

        actually there's too many bits, and maybe I have a bit of a prejudice: liking to watch any wideboy being fed their chips

        But there is unfortunately the truthiness in this:

        "This real-time exercise in realpolitik for RNZ's board and the Government illustrates where power lies in New Zealand."

        Oh how much easier it would be if gummints of whatever stripe, and masters-of the Universe in whatever pick-your-brand-Corp could just be up-front, open and honest.

        Bullshit begets more bullshit (on the bright side though, it keeps a few spin meisters in immoral employment)

    • weka 3.3
      12 February 2020 at 10:21 am

      I haven't followed closely. Did the board fuck up, or where they playing the government?

      • OnceWasTim 3.3.1
        12 February 2020 at 11:33 am

        The politics within RNZ are something to behold – especially since the current reign, from the way people have been 'eased' out (under-appreciated) to the marketeers taking over. I'd say the board royally fucked up putting too much faith in their 'golden boy(s)'.

      • Sacha 3.3.2
        12 February 2020 at 11:33 am

        Nobody has said. Jim Mather in particular seems too savvy to make such a stuff-up.

        • pat 3.3.2.1
          12 February 2020 at 12:14 pm

          Board signed off Dec…around 17 minute mark

          https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018733670

          • Sacha 3.3.2.1.1
            12 February 2020 at 10:29 pm

            Thank you. Lisa Owen asks explicitly at 15.52 if the public backlash has prised concessions from the govt including the shelved frequencies. A minute later, Thompson confirms RNZ did not ask for those as part of their plans for a new youth service because there had been 'no signal' they were on offer.

            Ministers do not tend to be forgiving about being manipulated..

        • OnceWasTim 3.3.2.2
          12 February 2020 at 12:38 pm

          Savvy as he may be:

          Aligned with his commercial background, Jim is also a former officer in the New Zealand Army, and was awarded the Sword of Honour in recognition of his distinguished achievements in Officer training.

          He currently holds governance roles with the following organisations:

          • Director of Auckland Transport
          • Director of Ngāti Awa Group Holdings Limited
          • Member of the MBIE Risk and Audit Committee
          • Managing Director of Mather Solutions Limited

          Well done Jim! Gorjiss!

          We could go through each of the board members such as the next on the list.

          Problem is they still fucked up (even though I have a special interest in one of them not coming to grief)

          I really don't give a fuck who gets thrown under the bus – put it down to the cistern they operate in. The board, the CEO or his decisions on recruiting a wonder-boy called Willy, but somebody/people should have the decency to resign, or be sacked

          Probably though if you really want to be efficient and effective, Thompson and Mcalister should take the fall

      • veutoviper 3.3.3
        12 February 2020 at 12:51 pm

        Both.

      • Sacha 3.3.4
        12 February 2020 at 9:43 pm

        Toby Manhire ponders that question in light of today's developments: https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/12-02-2020/a-crescendo-just-crushed-the-concert-restructure-so-what-next-for-rnz/

        This afternoon’s announcement was of an altogether greater magnitude, however. Not only would Concert remain on FM, but its staff would keep their jobs. The restructure plan had been scrapped, and a new strategy for Concert would be drafted.

        …

        In a statement yesterday, the RNZ board “welcomed the government’s decision to look at freeing up an additional FM transmission frequency and to explore funding options for a multi-media music brand” – a possible hint that a budget boost may be imminent.

        The chair of the RNZ board, Jim Mather, said: “We hear that passion for Concert and look forward to completing the consultation process to consider other possible improvements to that service now we have been given the potential of additional FM capacity”.

  4. Ad 4
    12 February 2020 at 9:08 am

    It was great to see the Salvation Army report with it's set of succinct social indicators.

    Since this government doesn't look like it is going to deliver a social indicator report before the election despite structuring their entire budget around it, the Salvation Army one will do nicely.

    If I had time I'd do a full post on it so I hope someone else will.

  5. RedLogix 5
    12 February 2020 at 9:08 am

    Yesterday I was shown some images out of China that were downright chilling … while I'm reluctant to repeat claims I've no way to verify or source, there is a fear that the CCP is using this event as cover to disappear inconvenient people … and more. There are now 60m people confined to their apartments and no-one knows for how long. In this tense, paranoid atmosphere there is real potential for events to spin out of control.

    But the worst part now is that no-one trusts the CCP regime to tell the truth. Not just about the virus from a medical perspective, but with regard to all the other things going on around it. It seems the govts reaction is to double down on the security, censorship and restrictions in an attempt retain control, but this only further undermines the trust that is essential to the social cohesion necessary to get through this.

    The Chinese people are going through a very difficult time right now … no matter where they live. A bit of true humanity and kindness will go a long way.

    • adam 5.1
      12 February 2020 at 5:23 pm

      One problem I'm having is the great wall (the fire wall) is blocking vpns which normally get around it. Almost all of the anarchists in China have gone silent. Not a peep – and that is making me more than a little anxious. Have been asking other mates online, and they are repeating pretty much what you are saying RedLogix about the disappearance process.

      What worries me many of these anarchists are lifestyle types, who are not really that political. Moreover they like the cultural elements, the music scene and hanging around together. Some good music coming out of chinese underground, been really enjoying the little I get to hear.

  6. Adrian 6
    12 February 2020 at 9:43 am

    The chances are that the good ol' ordinary flu is affecting hundreds or even thousands of times as many Chinese in this their winter flu season than this new virus. This is just Christmas for a headline inducing panic-desperate media in all it's dodgy persuasions.

    It is also Christmas and all its birthdays for the mad over controlling CCP and with a bit of luck its over reaction may be its downfall.

    • RedLogix 6.1
      12 February 2020 at 10:20 am

      Humans live more or less in a known equilibrium with influenza; some years it's a bit tricky and evolves into a slightly new form, other years the vaccines work well. But in essence most people have sufficient immunity, and it has a typical lethality rate below 0.1%. It’s serious, but a known adversary we understand.

      This new coronavirus is a concern because no-one has any immunity to it; potentially every human alive could become infected; and it's now clear that it's very transmittable. On the current numbers it seem like about 25% of people who become infected go on to develop a serious illness, and of these around 3% will die. Maybe 50m deaths inside the first year. That is much worse than seasonal influenza which typically kills around 0.5m each year.

      This virus hits the 'sweet spot', long incubation period, efficient transmission including silent carriers and spreaders, multiple modes of transmission including airborne, a high fraction of serious illnesses that will hit the medical system, and sufficiently lethal to be heavily disruptive socially.

      What we know about this bug is concerning already, and this is before it starts mutating on us. If it becomes seasonal, like many other coronavirus's, then all bets are off we would be into unknown territory where anything could happen. At that point the secondary social impacts will start to hurt.

      • Poission 6.1.1
        12 February 2020 at 10:53 am

        WHO wakes up.

        The WHO has asked countries to be "as aggressive as possible" in fighting the newly-named COVID-19 coronavirus.

        "If the world doesn't want to wake up and consider the virus as public enemy number one, I don't think we will learn from our lessons," WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in Geneva.

        "We are still in containment strategy and should not allow the virus to have a space to have local transmission," he said.

        https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/china-coronavirus-outbreak-latest-updates-200211012218330.html

        Large scale infection of health workers.

        https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050077/least-500-wuhan-medical-staff-infected-coronavirus

      • Adrian 6.1.2
        12 February 2020 at 12:33 pm

        If Angola can contain Ebola I think are chances on this one are pretty good. The point I was making is how this is playing into the hands of the desperate, the media for drama and click bait and the CCP for control of its populace, having them locked away and terrified instead of on the street protesting.

        • RedLogix 6.1.2.1
          12 February 2020 at 1:09 pm

          Comparing one disease with another isn't necessarily useful. Already you've compared COVID-19 with influenza which is easily transmitted but with a very low fatality rate, and now with Ebola which is only transmittable via direct body fluid contact and this makes standard medical isolation and practices quite effective, even though it has a scarily high lethality.

          Each disease must be treated on it's own terms, on the totality of it's character. This almost looks to be very difficult to contain, and sufficiently lethal to be quite disruptive. An unhappy combination that it would be unwise to ignore.

      • Robert Guyton 6.1.3
        12 February 2020 at 12:40 pm

        "This new coronavirus is a concern because no-one has any immunity to it; potentially every human alive could become infected; and it's now clear that it's very transmittable. "

        Is that not true of every new iteration of influenza?

        • RedLogix 6.1.3.1
          12 February 2020 at 12:59 pm

          It would need an expert to answer this properly, but it's my understanding it's not a binary black and white thing as your question implies, and the degree of novelty matters. Also every individual's immune system has a different history and character.

          By contrast COVID-19 is totally novel, no-one has even partial immunity as far as I'm aware. That's why these new variants that have jumped from other species are so very worrisome; they will spread quickly and we have no idea what their potential range of mutations will be.

        • mpledger 6.1.3.2
          12 February 2020 at 2:54 pm

          The super spreader in England was infecting people before he got symptoms and it has a long incubation period. Unless we want to inundate the medical services we want to slow it down as much as possible – hopefully until a vaccine is available.

    • mauī 6.2
      12 February 2020 at 10:23 am

      Yeah.. and the Chinese authorities has put tens of millions of their own citizens under house arrest and is spraying down every city street just for shits and giggles.

      • Adrian 6.2.1
        12 February 2020 at 12:27 pm

        No, its for the CCPs rabid desire for control. Plenty of virologists have stated that the spraying is ineffective as such viruses are very unlikely to survive outside or on such surfaces. But the images are good for mind control.

        • McFlock 6.2.1.1
          12 February 2020 at 1:56 pm

          Yeah. Unless there's an insect vector and the spray is insecticide, the spray isn't going to do shit.

          But it looks like something is being done.

          My disagreement isn't that it's the CCP strengthening its control, I suspect it's more of a desperate holding action for control. The virus is going to be worst in impact, both directly and economically, on China. Hungry and scared people can be bullied only so far before they riot, and not nice like in HK. Stringing people up-style rioting.

          • RedLogix 6.2.1.1.1
            12 February 2020 at 2:21 pm

            Hungry and scared people can be bullied only so far before they riot, and not nice like in HK.

            Our Chinese friend is translating material off the net for us that looks very much like the precursor to this. Last week she was not so worried, this week the tone has changed a lot.

            We can speculate fruitlessly about the virus, it's behavior and how it might unfold globally. But what I was really wanting to emphasise is that the Chinese people in particular are going through a very difficult and worrisome time. If anyone has the chance to do so, now would be a good time to reach out to anyone Chinese you know. A little kindness at moments like this can go a very long way.

          • Robert Guyton 6.2.1.1.2
            12 February 2020 at 3:10 pm

            An insect vector??

            Really!

            Blame the fleas (or rats, while not insects, they are definitely loathsome, yes?)

            • McFlock 6.2.1.1.2.1
              12 February 2020 at 3:27 pm

              Not really a blame thing. It was simply an observation of when mass spraying might be effective in disease control as opposed to a simple morale-boosting exercise. Development of the Panama Canal being a case in point.

              • Robert Guyton …
                12 February 2020 at 3:30 pm

                How's the canal faring just now, do you know?

                • Andre …
                  12 February 2020 at 3:32 pm

                  It's so busy that the biggest issue facing it is draining the lake that's the high point of the canal.

                • McFlock …
                  12 February 2020 at 3:35 pm

                  Still there as far as I know – but the French lost tens of thousands of workers to disease in their failed attempts, while the yanks focused on mosquito control (eradication and screens) and managed to significantly reduce their tropical disease fatalities.

        • RedLogix 6.2.1.2
          12 February 2020 at 2:34 pm

          The analysis of 22 studies reveals that human coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronavirus or endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days, but can be efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62-71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite within 1 minute.

          https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext

          • McFlock 6.2.1.2.1
            12 February 2020 at 2:41 pm

            There's a massive difference between some level of persistence and that level being enough to realistically infect someone else walking on the same outdoor footpath.

            This is a virus where someone went to a corporate workshop and only infected a few of the attendees after hours of close proximity. It's not like measles, where someone walking through the same terminal two hours later has a realistic chance of being infected.

  7. Sanctuary 7
    12 February 2020 at 10:09 am

    I will just leave this here.

  8. ianmac 8
    12 February 2020 at 10:56 am

    Stuff/Marlborough Express- Thomas Coughlan:

    … Bridges won't rule out working with NZF in the future….

    …. I've made it clear that is the case for this election- we're ruling them out…

    Pressed on the question Bridges would only commit to ruling NZF out any talks after the 2020 Election, "no ifs, no buts."

    Can't find a link but for Bridges is this a sort of squirmy half U-turn?

    • UncookedSelachimorpha 8.1
      12 February 2020 at 1:07 pm

      Ruling them out…unless it suits me not to…I'm ruling them out. For now. Unless it suits me not to. To get power. Otherwise, ruled out. 100%.

      That clear?

  9. joe90 9
    12 February 2020 at 1:26 pm

    Fucker's gone full despot.

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1227352806992072704

    On February 10, 2020, the Department of Justice recommended a seven to nine year sentence for Roger Stone on charges of obstructing a congressional investigation, making false statements to Congress, and witness tampering during the Russia investigation. Trump tweeted that the recommendation was “horrible and very unfair” and shortly after, a senior DOJ official intervened to overrule the front-line prosecutors and announced that they would be recommending a more lenient sentence. Four DOJ prosecutors have resigned from the case since the announcement.

    https://www.citizensforethics.org/foia/doj-roger-stone-reduced-sentencing/

    • Kevin 10.1
      12 February 2020 at 2:13 pm

      Pity, as he was one of the more interesting candidates.

      New Hampshire should be a comfortable win for Bernie.

        • gsays 10.1.1.1
          12 February 2020 at 3:50 pm

          What's the story Joe? Did Bernie pooh in your handbag or something. You seem to be keen to highlight perceive short-comings or cast doubt whenever possible.

          The town you cite is the third least populated in New Hampshire. Billy-Bob could've had a BBQ and a significant portion of voters not shown up.

          • McFlock 10.1.1.1.1
            12 February 2020 at 7:31 pm

            Not even that – Carroll county is 3rd smallest, with 47k people. The town in question has only 4k of that 47k.

            It's a non-random sample of 4000 people, probably only 3,000 votes. Maybe bernie farted while visiting it, or they got pissed he didn't visit at all.

    • Andre 10.2
      12 February 2020 at 2:52 pm

      I think it's still 10, since Bennet has dropped out as well.

  11. McFlock 11
    12 February 2020 at 2:16 pm

    Early indications form NH – Bernie gets a good start with 14% counted.

    • Andre 11.1
      12 February 2020 at 2:24 pm

      Looks like the big question will be which of Klobuchar, Warren, and Biden break the 15% threshold to be awarded delegates. Right now only Klobuchar is over.

      • Kevin 11.1.1
        12 February 2020 at 2:27 pm

        I thought the threshold was only for caucus states?

        • Andre 11.1.1.1
          12 February 2020 at 2:36 pm

          It's for all states.

          Then the hocus-pocus wing-of-bat 2-eyes-of-newt weirdshit recipes different states have for allocating delegates breaks things up into several different levels, some of which can have an effective threshold greater than 15%.That's how Biden ended up with 6 delegates from Iowa and Klobuchar 1 despite have almost identical vote and SDE%

          Plus giving out an effective leader's bonus due to rounding. That's how Buttigieg come out of Iowa with a 14 – 12 delegate lead over Sanders, despite only leading the SDE count by 0.1% (and lagging in the popular vote by 1.6%).

          https://www.270towin.com/content/thresholds-for-delegate-allocation-2020-democratic-primary-and-caucus

          https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/NH-D

          https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/IA-D

          • Kevin 11.1.1.1.1
            12 February 2020 at 2:39 pm

            Thanks for that.

            • Andre 11.1.1.1.1.1
              12 February 2020 at 3:20 pm

              I should probably clarify that a bit more. As I understand it, the 15% threshold for allocating delegates applies at each of the sub-units, not at the state as a whole.

              So with New Hampshire awarding 8 delegates from each of its two House districts, if Warren breaks 15% in one of those, she will get one delegate even if she is below 15% for the state as a whole.

              That's how Klobuchar got one delegate from Iowa, despite being below 15% for the state as a whole. But Biden squeaked over 15% for Iowa as a whole, so he got allocated delegates from the pool that was determined by statewide vote and ended up with 6 total from Iowa.

    • Phil 11.2
      12 February 2020 at 2:54 pm

      With 22% reporting, the NYT have Bernie at 28% of the vote… as with Iowa that's basically half what he got in 2016.

      I remain skeptical of Bernies chances, in part because the three big 'obviously moderates' candidates (Mayor Pete, Biden, Klobuchar) combined are currently at more than 50% of the vote. My gut feel remains that, down the campaign stretch as the field shrinks, Sanders will get overtaken by whichever candidate outlasts the others.

      • Andre 11.2.1
        12 February 2020 at 3:00 pm

        Or go a bit further on a national level, the moderates (Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Biden, Bloomberg) add up to around 55%, the liberals (Sanders, Warren, Yang, Gabbard) are just a bit over 40%. Kinda like the Clinton – Sanders split last time around.

        https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

      • McFlock 11.2.2
        12 February 2020 at 3:10 pm

        Again, only 2 significant candidates in 2016, vs half a dozen in 2020.

        Biden is looking done at the moment. Bernie looks good, but the mayor and Warren are also still in the race.

        • Phil 11.2.2.1
          12 February 2020 at 4:22 pm

          Yes, less candidates last time, BUT I can't think of any other examples where a presidential hopeful has entered the primary a second time around and performed significantly worse than their first attempt.

          Clinton was the anointed successor to Obama in '16 because she spent 8 years positioning herself as such. McCain ran distant second to Bush in '00, then Romney was second to McCain in '08 and they both were the obvious front runner for the title of next Republican nominee.

          In contrast, Sanders seems like the just kind of walked away from the Democratic party apparatus in 2016 (he relinquished membership of the party not long after Trump's election) and left a huge vacuum that all these other candidates are now trying to fill.

          • McFlock 11.2.2.1.1
            12 February 2020 at 4:29 pm

            I agree about his party membership, but the thing is that more candidates means a lot more pieces of cake. Which means smaller pieces. I don't think the different campaign years can be usefully compared on that basis.

            ps: if you could think of such a candidate, you'd be the biggest nerd on a political nerd blog lol

            • Andre 11.2.2.1.1.1
              12 February 2020 at 6:50 pm

              Mike Huckabooboo actually won more delegates and was a very close third in popular vote % behind Romney's second in '08. But withdrew on Feb 1, 2016 after getting negligible support.

              How many nerd points do I get?

        • Phil 11.2.2.2
          12 February 2020 at 4:39 pm

          Re: Biden.

          His 'firewall' is still the 4th voting state – South Carolina and its majority-minority voter composition. He has led basically every poll conducted in SC, but it's still a high risk strategy because he has already effectively given up on Nevada which is next.

      • Felix 11.2.3
        12 February 2020 at 5:18 pm

        Phil your logic here is a bit off and is not supported by what data we have on the subject. Supporters of the big three moderate candiates Pete, Biden, Klobuchar arent just some moderate blob that will roll between the moderate candidates, in fact Biden supporters leading second choice is Bernie, furthmore bernie holds a good share in the second choice for Pete's supporters with a strong third (only three point behind bloomberg's lead).

        The fall of Biden seems the most likley to happen soon and that will help Bernie more than Klobuchar or Pete both of whom are too much in the ascendency to consider dropping at the moment. And with warrens poor preformance tonight she might not be running to much longer either again, helping Bernie.

        • Adrian Thornton 11.2.3.1
          12 February 2020 at 5:59 pm

          It would be good to see Warren drop out and have a large chunk of her supporters move to Bernie, but I suspect she will limp on for quite a while yet…

          Have you links for the second choice voting that you mention? I would to see those stats.

        • Phil 11.2.3.2
          12 February 2020 at 6:23 pm

          I recall seeing some 2nd preference numbers months ago, but I too would be interested in seeing an update. The older they are the more they might reflect name recognition rather than actual voting intent.

          The voting data that we do have from Iowa showed there was very little shift to Bernie on the 2nd-preference from the unviable candidates (and Biden was often unviable at individual caucus sites) so I really don't know how to square the two pieces of intelligence. I still stand by the gut-feel that Bernie probably doesn't have the coalition to reach 50% of delegates outright, but I can easily imagine him having the single largest bloc at the convention.

          • Andre 11.2.3.2.1
            12 February 2020 at 6:53 pm

            … and if nobody comes to the convention with more than 50% of the pledged delegates to win it at the first round, then the superdelegates come into play for the subsequent rounds.

        • Andre 11.2.3.3
          12 February 2020 at 7:02 pm

          When fivethirtyeight looked at it back in December, they found that only about a third of Sanders and Warren supporters picked the other liberal as their second choice.

          https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/voters-second-choice-candidates-show-a-race-that-is-still-fluid/

  12. Aaron 12
    12 February 2020 at 2:37 pm

    I'm quite surprised no one is talking about this:

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/409298/bridges-says-national-won-t-tone-down-ads-after-asa-ruling

    National just got ticked off by the Advertising Standards Authority for telling porkies in an advert last year and Simon Bridges says they're going to keep on doing it.

    I mean, we all knew that National was planning to use outright lies to try to win the election but I didn't expect them to actually tell us in advance!

  13. Chris 13
    12 February 2020 at 2:43 pm

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/409346/survey-paints-grim-picture-of-schooling-for-children-with-disabilities

    So IHC's done another survey and nothing's changed. Surprise, surprise.

    IHC lodged a complaint with the Human Rights Commission 12 years ago. What the heck's happened to that? If IHC's behaviour around the sleepover case is anything to go by it'd be surprisng if it'll go anywhere. IHC's too far up the government's backside for that to happen.

  14. Robert Guyton 14
    12 February 2020 at 3:28 pm

    "Gore district mayor Tracy Hicks was forthright in his condemnation of NZAS and Rio Tinto.

    "I've had a gutsful of their shilly-shallying.

    "We have been working with Rio Tinto for the last three years and have bent over backwards to keep them engaged.

    "All they do is thumb their nose at us and the people of Mataura." "

    • Graeme 14.1
      12 February 2020 at 4:07 pm

      Fuckers

      https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/southland/devastated-anger-deal-move-toxic-chemicals-falls-over

      Well that will destroy whatever social licence Rio Tinto have in Southland. I can see some interesting inadvertent alliances forming here. Who's going to have the balls, or stupidity, to defend Rio Tinto on in Southland Times, or on Dee Street.

      • Rosemary McDonald 14.1.1
        12 February 2020 at 5:00 pm

        "Fuckers"

        x 1000

        About time someone grew a pair and told Rio Tinto to depart these shores.

        Which territorial authority is in charge here?

        Paging Mr. Guyton.

      • pat 14.1.2
        12 February 2020 at 5:01 pm

        may be indicative of their review result….'well fellas , we've worn out our welcome here…time to find a new mug to host us'…and dont worry, they’ll have their cheque books open

      • RedLogix 14.1.3
        12 February 2020 at 5:10 pm

        Having worked briefly on a major Rio site I can attest to the insane over-regulation and nit-picking that is endemic everywhere. Just to get a room in the camp I had to initial and sign a 48 page document of rules.

        As frustrating as this decision must be for Southlanders, I'll bet the board has a process reason for this delay. The clue is here:

        "It’s my understanding from conversations with Stewart that Rio Tinto’s rationale for refusing to take the dross was that it didn’t want any more liabilities on the Tiwai site before the company’s strategic review is completed at the end of March.”

        Mr Parry said the original deal struck with all Southland councils, landowners and NZAS to move the dross stored throughout Southland was still in place.

        "We remain committed to a solution that removes the material. NZAS has committed to contributing $1.75 million to the costs of safely removing and processing the material."

        This looks more like a delay rather than reneging. Right now it's not even clear who the legal owner of this material is and the board's legal advisers may be cautious about accepting liability for it. The sums of money involved are literally petty cash to Rio Tinto, it will be safety and legal issues driving this.

        I have to say that working for them was an exercise in demoralising frustration, so none of this surprises me.

        • Graeme 14.1.3.1
          12 February 2020 at 5:36 pm

          Disposal of the dross has been an ongoing issue for the last 30 years at least. It just keeps getting moved around, and called different things every 10 years so people think it's another new problem.

          Rio want it anywhere by their place so they don't have to deal with it when they remediate the Tiwai site on closure, which I'd say we will find out about after the review.

    • Rosemary McDonald 14.2
      12 February 2020 at 5:03 pm

      "Shilly-shallying"???

      That's the best old Tracy can do?

      Bending over backwards….what a silly tactic.

  15. observer 15
    12 February 2020 at 3:33 pm

    Approval ratings for Ardern and Bridges

    This is the same poll (i.e. same respondents) as the party vote poll earlier this week. It's noteworthy that Ardern's 63.3% must include some National voters, and a high percentage of National voters do not think Bridges is performing well.

    It sounds geeky but is actually relevant that this is the same poll as the party vote results, because of the polling methodology. I don't have access to the script of course, but the order of questions usually starts with the party vote ("if there were an election tomorrow" etc). So … having answered "National", the respondent then answers Qs about the party leaders, and gives Bridges the thumbs down.

    While it is not impossible for a party to win despite a leader with low ratings, it is very rare in modern democracies, with leader-focused campaigns – and hasn't happened in NZ under MMP (Brash 2005 and Clark 1996 came closest).

    • ianmac 15.1
      12 February 2020 at 3:49 pm

      Winston said in his speech today that Bridges is at minus 32% on the +- scale.

      He also asked Bridges if he had a Warrant to practice Law? No answer.

      • mac1 15.1.1
        12 February 2020 at 4:03 pm

        Bridges will rue his stance versus NZF.

        He certainly has no mates except Seymour who Peters characterised as being ACT's seventh leader- but there's only one vote and if there was a second ACT MP in the caucus, he wouldn't be.

        The Opposition finance spokesperson , Paul Goldsmith, was described as the only candidate in democracies who took his own hoardings down before an election rather than putting them up!

        Electoral chicanery we should not forget.

      • Sacha 15.1.2
        12 February 2020 at 10:01 pm

        He also asked Bridges if he had a Warrant to practice Law?

        Is he implying that the lad has let his practising registration lapse? So all the chest-thumping about being a thrusting lawyer is but a fond memory..

    • Cinny 15.2
      12 February 2020 at 6:54 pm

      Was chatting to a true blue supporter today who told me for the first time in his life he won't be voting national, because of 'that twat bridges'. I almost fell over.

      Looking at that poll leader approval rating result, it appears that his view is shared by others.

      • UncookedSelachimorpha 15.2.1
        12 February 2020 at 7:01 pm

        Who will they vote for I wonder – or just not vote?

      • ianmac 15.2.2
        12 February 2020 at 7:23 pm

        Winston said in the House musingly, "Since the popular vote was over 70% for Jacinda, there must have been a fair few National voting for Jacinda?"

        • Cinny 15.2.2.1
          12 February 2020 at 7:37 pm

          Uncooked, I did ask who else he wouldn't be voting for and the reply was, NZ First or act.

          Another person then entered the room so our conservation ended.

          Will ask him after the election who he ended up voting for, he knows I support red and green.

          Ianmac 🙂 I'd say Winnie is 100% correct with that comment.

          • McFlock 15.2.2.1.1
            12 February 2020 at 9:17 pm

            That's the funny thing – the more Bridges looks like a dropkick, ACT will be a wasted vote. So the sensible tory will vote NZ1 to moderate the next government's policies, which could end up helping NZ1 over the line…

    • swordfish 15.3
      12 February 2020 at 8:56 pm

      Bear in mind, too, that (as with Colmar Brunton), Reid Research …

      (1) Present the Party Vote as a % of Decided voters only …

      Whereas:

      (2) Leader Performance (like Preferred PM) is presented as a % of All Respondents.

      That means that non-Labour voters comprise an even larger slice of those who believe Ardern is Performing Well than might appear to be the case at first sight,

      If the Reid Research % Don't Knows are anything close to the latest Colmar Brunton DKs … then that would mean a very large minority of those favourable to Ardern's Performance are non-Lab voters … Nats, Greens, NZFers along with those respondents who haven't made up their mind on the Party Vote.

Page generated in The Standard by Wordpress at 2024-10-14T08:09:43+00:00