She's demonstrating political nous, eh? Generate headlines is the best way to raise your public profile. She's not blaming govt pakeha, specifically. Nor is she blaming Maori govt ministers for the ethnic cleansing. Very clever!
"The lack of Māori response by the Government to COVID-19, the lack of Māori engagement with Māori leadership during the lockdown, the removal by force of our rights protected under Te Tiriti o Waitangi and legislation rushed through under urgency further eroding civil liberties, in short is ethnic cleansing".
She knows how to play the media game. Sometimes people look behind what is said and try to understand what it means.
From the Newshub link, "Modelling released in April by research group Te Pūnaha Matatini shows that because of underlying health conditions, socioeconomic disadvantage and structural racism, the death rate for COVID-19 could be 2.5 times higher for Māori."
"According to the latest data, Māori represent 8 percent of the total cases so far – or 126 people." The statistics are current and obviously might change, significantly or not.
Pokere-Phillips will have genuine concerns about state powers. Getting attention on that with emotional links to bloody extermination is powerful. In method it's a David Farrar approach. The Ministry of Health lists Covid-19 cases by ethnicity. Maybe that's a good place to start in checking the reality of 'ethnic cleansing.'
"I’m angry the NZ Herald dumped the horoscopes, it was the only quality journalism they did." Get real. Those were merely sun-sign generalisations. A horoscope is the diagram of an event in relation to local cosmos. Can't expect journos to grasp such depths.
And he's still banging on about the "5 Eyes intelligence dossier "published in the Murdoch press despite the fact its been refuted several times over
Here's one such in the Guardian
"The deputy chair of the Australian parliament’s intelligence and security committee, Anthony Byrne, has been angered by the reported dossier, fearing the episode was reminiscent of the saga surrounding intelligence about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq in 2003."
Until someone can intelligently walk me past the fact that a virus closely linked to bats, has it's first major human outbreak in the same city that happened to have the only lab in the world studying the same family of virus from bats … all the self-serving denials in the world mean nothing.
It could of course be an amazing coincidence, but then if I was found standing over a dead body holding a smoking gun, would any investigator accept my claim that "it wasn't me, it must have been some other bullet"? And then allow me to control access to the crime scene, control all the evidence and tell the police to go away?
Well , I guess its like John Key said ..more or less my experts against your experts, but lets keep it to science not "intelligence"
Professor Edward Holmes is an evolutionary virologist and a member of the Charles Perkins Centre and the Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity at the University of Sydney
"There is no evidence that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 in humans, originated in a laboratory in Wuhan, China.
Coronaviruses like SARS-CoV-2 are commonly found in wildlife species and frequently jump to new hosts. This is also the most likely explanation for the origin of SARS-CoV-2.
The closest known relative of SARS-CoV-2 is a bat virus named RaTG13, which was kept at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. There is some unfounded speculation that this virus was the origin of SARS-CoV-2. However:
(i) RaTG13 was sampled from a different province of China (Yunnan) to where COVID-19 first appeared; and
(ii) the level of genome sequence divergence between SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13 is equivalent to an average of 50 years (and at least 20 years) of evolutionary change.
Hence, SARS-CoV-2 was not derived from RaTG13.
In addition, we know that viruses related to SARS-CoV-2 are also found in pangolins. This suggests that other wildlife species are likely to carry relatives of SARS-CoV-2.
In summary, the abundance, diversity and evolution of coronaviruses in wildlife strongly suggests that SARS-CoV-2 is of natural origin. However, a greater sampling of animal species in nature, including bats from Hubei province, is needed to resolve the exact origins of SARS-CoV-2."
Martenson does a pretty good job of picking apart Holmes's statement at the 18:40 mark of Tony Veitch's video posted above.
Holmes even reinforces the non-natural origin theory by saying that Covid is closest to RaTG13, the lab had access to RaTG13, and RaTG13 is naturally occuring in a different region of China to Wuhan.
I’m extremely reluctant to wade into this but the science aspect is mighty interesting.
One of the many missing pieces of the puzzle is why there was a 7-year gap between discovering RaTG13 and publishing the data? If RaTG13 occurs naturally then it should be possible to isolate it from a (its?) natural source, e.g. in the cave where it was purported to have been found in 2013.
A variation is that a bat urinated on a technician in the Wuhan laboratory. This really strengthens the laboratory theory, it ties so well into the 'bat-shit' crazy response to the epidemic from a number of world leaders
"OK so let's go with that idea. Now if we had a terrible accident at this firing range … what would be the first thing the person in charge might do? "
Well I'd hazard a guess it wouldnt be let the bent bat shit crazy chief of police that hates your guts and would love to send you down for anything run the investigation.
And in the meantime the person right next to the dead body, holding the hot smoking gun, gets to shutdown the scene, prevent any police from entering the property, control all the information and deny any possible guilt?
A ten year old wouldn't buy it.
The logical problem for anyone wanting to promote the idea that "there is no evidence" that it came from a lab, is they equally have no evidence that it came from a natural host either.
It's like your local police chief standing up at a presser and saying "I don't have a fucking clue" and pretending that somehow solved the case.
"And in the meantime the person right next to the dead body, holding the hot smoking gun, gets to shutdown the scene, prevent any police from entering the property, control all the information and deny any possible guilt?"
What smoking gun?…your problem is there is nobody standing next to a body holding a smoking gun…theres somebody saying there MIGHT have been somebody standing next to the body holding a smoking gun…..or the corpse may not even have a bullet wound…it could have been a heart attack for all you know.
Now you are being obdurate, pretending there is no biolab in Wuhan, that it was not studying closely related virus's, that it hadn't published papers on the topic, that their top researcher was not well known for her work in this field … and that the first major COVID outbreak was not in Wuhan.
Yes I can see that if you make all those facts go away, then there is no smoking gun either.
Indeed. And the question of whether the person had even been shot.
Forunately, just as a gun leaves a wound and powder residue genetic sequences provide information as to ancestry and provenance. There is no bullet wound.
Oh and that link you gave is to a paper, Holmes is one of the authors, published in early March (and presumably written in the weeks prior) that Martenson addresses in the light of subsequent understanding.
Just because Trump has gotten his sticky mitts on this story does not make him anyone's hero, and it certainly doesn't change the known fact that the CCP have done everything in their power to shut down independent investigation, and promote a narrative exonerating themselves at every step.
Pat, and others, you're missing the point. Chris Martenson is strictly apolitical. He's not trying to support any Trump conspiracy theories, he's looking at the evidence from an entirely logical and evidence based point of view.
His point is that the coronavirus has 'gain of function' additives which could only – stress only – have been added in a lab. He backs up his conclusions with proof which seems convincing to my unscientific mind.
Whether all this feeds into Trump's paranoia and politicising, he makes no comment on.
no need to waste 18 minutes….those studying the virus (and without political motives) have determined it is natural in origin…if they change their minds I will re-evaluate.
The first link relies on the idea that the closest known bat virus is decades apart in evolutionary terms, but selectively omits that it's routine procedure to force evolution in the lab in a matter of days.
The second link is just reporting assertions with no data
The third link is a re-run of the spike protein optimisation argument that Martenson suggests is not as water tight as being pretended.
The fourth link uses the argument that purposeful genetic manipulation always leaves behind 'telltale fingerprints', which is also not true. The method for avoiding this has been known since 2002, and is well known.
Now my quick scan of your four references is not terribly conclusive, except that even with my very limited understanding I can spot troubling questions and presuppositions in all of them. None of them even vaguely attempt to explain why the first major outbreak occurs in Wuhan, a city many hundreds of km from where the bloody bats live.
Agreed Pat. Human-mediated habitat destruction may have played a role in the formation of Covid-19; advocating that the virus was engineered in a lab is just (bat)shit-stirring – let's wait!
Novel human coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2): A lesson from animal coronaviruses Our review was reasonably prepared also to highlight (once more!) how CoVs originate, evolve, jump, mutate and infect their host. Could have the current COVID-19 outbreak been avoided? Answering this question is not relevant now, but actions to avoid the next viral spillover from animals to humans is certainly a priority. This task needs to be coupled with massive genomic surveillance in wild animals not limited to CoVs. Massive sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 strains detected in humans and CoVs of wildlife will help further assess the origin of this novel human pandemic and plan future measures able to reduce the risk of emergence of new CoV spillover events. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378113520302935
Origin and evolution of pathogenic coronaviruses
“…given the prevalence and great genetic diversity of bat SARS-rCoVs, their close coexistence and the frequent recombination of CoVs, it is expected that novel variants will emerge in the future” https://www.nature.com/articles/s41579-018-0118-9
Watched the video at ~19 minutes, including Dr Martenson's first conclusion after 'analysing' "this Professor Holmes" statement:
"There is no evidence that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 in humans, originated in a laboratory in Wuhan, China."
The excitable Martenson accepted that statement, and then assigned equal likelihood to the contrary statement that 'the virus did originate in a lab', on the basis that there's no evidence either way. IMHO anyone still listening after that 'analysis' is wasting their time, me included.
Martenson is espousing a belief, and asserting that expert virologists are (deliberately) ignoring his ‘analysis’. The idea that Professor Holmes' job depends (somehow) on Holmes not understanding Martenson's belief is ludicrous – wacky stuff!
Martenson's smoking gun, the presence of a "polybasic furin cleavage site" encoded in the Covid-19 genome, was commented on over three months ago – it's nothing new.
"…no clear evolutionary pathway has [yet] been identified that would explain the presence of COVID-19’s furin polybasic cleavage site…" – nevertheless, the idea that current molecular sequence databases magically contain a complete record of extant and transient/extinct coronavirus diversity – well, imagine!
Whereas conspiracy beliefs describing the pandemic as a hoax were more strongly associated with reduced containment-related behavior, conspiracy beliefs about sinister forces purposefully creating the virus related to an increase in self-centered prepping behavior. https://psyarxiv.com/ye3ma/
"a bat manages to pass a coronavirus to a pangolin, one of only a few thousand left in the world,"
in a wet market where both species were present and in close contact
"which somehow manages to swap part of that virus with a variation already in the pangolin"
which has occurred and been documented on many previous occasions
"This then picks up other critical parts of the virus composition present in pangolins, and –"
see previous
"miracle of miracles – jumps from animals to humans."
previously occurred
"All of the above can be done in a lab."
not easily and only with considerable luck as explained in the linked articles from my previous post…indeed the odds are far greater of it occurring naturally than by design.
lol. My explanation sure does miss the make a bit – and that's because the science is way beyond me – in terms of explaining it.
But I hope you'll take the time to go to the video and the 50 minute make and spend a few minutes listening to the explanation given by Chris Martenson. Then get back to me.
What if there was a pangolin in the Wuhan lab which caught the virus from a bat and the pangolin was not disposed of properly and someone touched a piece of the pangolin or materials which were used in the disposal of the pangolin?
Without doubt the virus has occurred naturally and is not man made.
Does it really matter if the virus came from the lab or the Wuhan market?
How the virus jumped to humans from bats/pangolins is what I would like to know?
Without doubt the virus has occurred naturally and is not man made.
Huh? How can one (e.g. you) be so absolutely 100% sure of this? Has anybody isolated it from a (its?) natural source other than infected humans and now cats, it appears?
If it was man-made we wouldn’t have to worry about how exactly it jumped species, would we?
Incorrect! The virus is not seen in bats and pangolins; there are similar viruses found in these species but they are not identical and definitely not close enough to be called “the virus”. There are some interesting questions hanging over the origin of RaTG13 based on close analysis and inspection of its genome (i.e. by sequencing). AFAIK, all reports of infected cats have been controlled experimental studies in the lab and large cats in zoos (https://thestandard.org.nz/dont-infect-your-feline-master/) and human-to-cat transfer, not the other way round. In any case, this is the same virus that jumps, not a similar one.
I have not read a closer fit than the theory that a bat gave the virus to a pangolin and a pangolin is the likely transmission to a human host.
When it comes to what reservoir caused AIDS, Ebola, MERs and similar viruses a lot is still unknown. Maybe there is a connection and this needs research.
Yes, I know you said that but the important (to me) point was that this is the same virus. They have yet to figure out where it came from and how and when it jumped and from which species to human.
Indeed, more research is needed and not just on SARS-COVID-2.
Except observing gradually increasing numbers of people with pneumonia isn't quite as obvious as the firing range analogy would suggest. Analogies do have their limits.
Did China act suspiciously slowly? I'm not so sure on that – they coded the sequence pretty quickly, got WHO in towards the end of January ISTR. Yeah, they did some "in denial" initially, but that seems to be common practise these days – very few of the top-tier nations can throw stones in that regard, so maybe China simply had the same motives as around half the members of the G7/8.
How early? When do you know they first had it? Only by knowing that you can say it was 'early' or not.
Sequencing these days is remarkably fast; once there were cases in other countries it was only a matter of days before the sequence became public domain anyway.
Chinese scientists submitted the gene sequencing data for posting on Virological.org, a hub for prepublication data designed to assist with public health activities and research. Earlier this week, they announced that they had isolated and fully sequenced the virus, setting off calls for full release of the details. The post was communicated by Edward Holmes, PhD, with the University of Sydney, on behalf of a Chinese group led by Yong-Zhen Zhang, PhD, with Fudan University in Shanghai.
Because the virus comes with it's own plan, once it got out of China it was a matter of days before everyone had it anyway.
Nor is anyone here using the term 'bioweapon' because that implies malicious intent. Because to date we have no trusted investigation, and no evidence based chain of events, no-one should yet be claiming this virus was intended to have a military purpose.
But that is quite different to ruling out a lab origin.
Yes there is a massive difference; that's why I was careful to use the term 'potential window'. Yes it's highly unlikely anyone would have sequenced the new virus back in November, but equally releasing it just before it was going to become public domain anyway really doesn't mean much.
In essence it comes back to knowing exactly when Chinese first had a sequence for it, and until you know that for certain any notion of 'early' is arbitrary.
"Early" is always a relative term, but when judging actions it usually is in reference to something that could be known at the time.
24 december first test of an unresolved clinical case throws up the issue. Alert raised a few days later. Sequence released 11 jan.
I mean, good luck with pretending that the first case was identified as a new disease and covered up for six weeks. The coverup is plausible – we've seen it from a variety of regimes. Identifying case #1 at the time? Not so much, especially if it looks like pneumonia and is in winter.
Wrong. The first case was on December the 27th in Paris,spread by a food hall worker returning from a Xmas trip to Wuhan to a co-worker who gave it to her husband. Nice Chrissy pressie. All as widely reported a few weeks ago.
Now, if you can't even get that right, where does all this bat-shit crazy stuff come from. Out of the arse of some foaming RW nutjob?
Hence the first cases outside of China that were diagnosed and could have been sequenced by non-Chinese researchers were sometime in mid January, which doesn't change the timeline at all.
In reality the Chinese lab in Shanghai (apparently shut down since) probably did the right thing and published the sequence pretty much when they first got it in early January. But to then claim this was somehow virtuously ‘early’, when the damned virus had already gone global is kind of stretching it.
As for my sources, I’ve been open on this for months. I am close to a well connected Chinese family, who have been conveying all this and much more to me since mid January.
What do you mean? Samples from patients have been sequenced all around the world, including New Zealand. Unless the Chinese scientists share the original sample for independent sequencing, it is just a long sequence of four letters. The similarity between the published original sequence and subsequent patient samples is very high.
Well, yes, and the so-called phylogenetic tree of the human cases is highly consistent with the published first sequence. None of this, however, proves anything about the true origin of the virus and where/how it allegedly jumped to humans.
Why not ask the French since it’s a joint French/Chinese research facility? Or do idiot levels of xenophobia simply not extend beyond Asian peoples to European ones?
The US outsourced it's bat virus research to China, too.
Newsweek recently put out some surprising reports that the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) had funded the controversial Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). The WIV is the level four research facility suspected by some of being a possible source for the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has already been on record confirming and defending this funding, saying it was “to protect American people from labs that aren’t up to standard.”
[…]
A third reason could be the fact that the United States has long held a fierce debate about the ethics and risks of gain-of-function (GOF) research. Critics, such as Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, have argued that such work “entails a unique risk that a laboratory accident could spark a pandemic, killing millions.” These objections motivated the Obama administration to halt all domestic GOF research in 2011, a restriction that was later lifted in 2017, following the implementation of new safety protocols. Although we do not know exactly what went into the decision to fund the WIV during this moratorium, it is likely that domestic restrictions may have played a role, forcing the proponents of such work to seek opportunities abroad. These proponents are of the opinion that GOF research is worth the risk, being the best way to understand, prevent, and treat pandemics, an argument that is not without merit
As for the 'idiot levels of xenophobia' my Chinese friends would like to explain that not all Chinese think the CCP is wonderful. They find the idea that they all think exactly alike a little bit patronising.
Thank God Australia is breaking through all thise po-faced Chinese "you can't criticise us" crap.
New Zealand is reportedly among 62 nations that have come together to back Australia's call for an independent inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic.
The Australian newspaper reported that it had obtained a draft resolution to be put to the World Health Assembly on Tuesday which was backed by key nations including India, Japan, the UK, Canada, New Zealand, Indonesia, Russia, Mexico, Brazil, and all 27 EU member states.
It demands World Health Organisation director-general Dr Tedros Ghebreyesus "initiate at the earliest appropriate moment … a stepwise process of impartial, independent and comprehensive evaluation" of the international response to the pandemic, the actions of the WHO and its timeline of the pandemic.
Yes my perspective here is probably coloured not just by my close contacts with Chinese locally, but because I'm reading a lot more Australian media than many people here.
One thing that is quite remarkable is this CCP 'wolf warrior' diplomacy the CCP let loose in April, and just how many nations they have gone out of their way to pick a fight with in just the past six weeks. Here in Australia alone they have shutdown imports from four major abbatoirs on transparently bogus 'technical' grounds, are in the process of an absurd 80% tariff on barley (apparently due to govt subsidises), have threatened to go to Brazil for iron ore and beef, and are now hinting that Chinese will not 'want' to visit Australia nor send their children to University here.
And Australia is by no means the only nation being threatened like this, the list is growing almost daily. Even NZ has gotten the treatment over Winston's proposal that Taiwan should be recognised by WHO.
Much of this will turn out to be bluster, but then last week when Trump mused about 'shutting down the entire relationship with China', official state media reported senior CCP officials saying that if that happened then there would be no restraint stopping them from a military invasion of Taiwan.
None of this strikes me as a China acting from a position of strength and confidence. The theory most plausible at the moment is the CCP is striving hard to inflame domestic nationalistic passions that can be directed toward internal repression, and maintenance of political control in the one party state.
"The embassy in Canberra declined to comment on a report in the Nine newspapers on Thursday of suspicions within senior ranks of the government and the intelligence community about a staffer’s possible role."
Blame a junior staffer has become popular of late. Usually interns or on short-term contracts, thus expendable. Also privacy law means you can never name them. Keeps the theory conjectural – anonymity plus obfuscation covers up reliably.
Rudd advises not drawing conclusions "until all the facts are on the table". Reminds us why he was such a spectacular failure as PM. Has anyone ever seen China put all the facts on the table about anything? Of course not. Nor the US, in recent memory.
You're suggesting that the wish to have all facts on the table before accusing another nation of the most dire malevolent actions disqualifies him from public office?
Jesus, no wonder we have politicians of such low calibre these days
No, just pointing to the fact that wishing to have all the facts on the table (about anything) is merely wishful thinking. An intelligent person would realise that before making a fool of themselves in public, right?
I fully support the democratic right of wishful thinkers to have political careers, of course. Likewise the mentally ill. Those who complain about Trump having no right to be doing his deranged thing are exhibiting their discrimination against mentally-challenged folk…
Thanks for the links francesca. To me the topic is summed up nicely at the end of the first link:
“It’s puzzling to me, there is a perfectly natural or scientific explanation staring you in the face. But there seems to be a need from some people to say ‘that’s too simple, there must be a conspiracy here’.”
It not just simplicity. It's politics – as opposed to a well researched scientific explanation which is not yet complete.
A handful of leaders have good cause to introduce conspiracy theories despite the fact there is no evidential backing for them. Leading the charge is Trump. That tells me it is designed to cover his own appalling record of narcissism, arrogance, incompetence, stupidity and incoherence reminiscent of a two year old having a tantrum.
Leading the charge is Trump. That tells me it is designed to cover his own appalling record of narcissism, arrogance, incompetence, stupidity and incoherence reminiscent of a two year old having a tantrum.
Which is all true of Trump.
But this does not speak to anything that happened in Wuhan or the subsequent actions of the CCP to close down any investigation. Trump's stupidity and incoherence does not erase the known perfidy of the CCP.
And besides the work being done by many people trying to independently understand the origin of SARS-COV-2 was underway months before Trump got onto the bandwagon.
No, it does not speak to what happened in Wuhan, but Trump is the one spreading the conspiracies (together with his influential supporters in the media and elsewhere) and he isn't doing so out of genuine concern to trace the origin of the virus.
We don't yet know the truth of what happened in Wuhan but I'll wager a bet it was never part of the sinister conspiracy Trump and co. are trying to generate in an attempt to detract from his miserable performance.
One theory I heard sometime back which has a grain of plausibility:
this research centre in Wuhan might have been offloading some of its ' specimens' to the wet markets once they no longer had any use for them. Now, if that proved to be the case, it wouldn't surprise me if China is trying to keep it under wraps.
I'll wager a bet any country including America would do the same thing under the same circumstances. That's not a conspiracy though. It's a guilty conscience that the local Chinese authorities took their eyes off the ball.
There are a whole range of possibilities; everything from an engineered bio-weapon through to naturally occurring mutation, with a LOT of possibilities in between. At this point in time I'm willing to accept they're all in play, no-one has conclusively ruled anything in or out.
But right from the outset the CCP has been acting as if they had something to hide. Sure there has been cooperation and apparent transparency where it aligns with their self-serving narrative, but no rigorous independent outside scrutiny by a trusted authority. Every week that has gone by has reduced the chance of anyone ever finding out the truth of this matter, and over time the CCP can probably count of people not caring enough to insist.
Maybe Stalin was right when he said "the death of one man is a tragedy, the death of millions a statistic".
How does the Chinese government behaviour differ from that of any other nation that has hidden the extent of its problem, gamed the data or testing to keep apparent numbers low, or simply claimed to have a minimal problem while its all-cause mortality rate seems to have gone through the roof?
If the first outbreak had been in Auckland, our govt had badly mishandled it so that it got loose in the world, and then refused to engage with any independent accountability … would you be making the same excuse?
Will Star Wars be coming to New Zealand? Sounds far fetched but there is increasing speculation (not just this entertainment article) that our government's response could reap big rewards with the risk averse international film industry.
Apparently, the NZ guilds and safety industry worked very hard to get their work protocol document signed off by Work Safe. A government sanctioned system in a one state country looks very attractive to both producers and cast alike.
Wasn't a NZ story, which is what I meant. I also thought JoJo Rabbit was shite, had some laughs, but pretty Carry On really (yet I loved Thor Ragnarok so I'm not total kill joy). Looking forward to the Luminaries tonight.
An idea moving forward . Move to a 4 on 4 off working week. Business open 7 days spreads the congestion over 7 days ,rather than 5 full on 2 less so. Increased employment opportunities And 4 day weekends will encourage more getaways to enhance local tourism. Work and life would be in balance.
My statistician son has filled me in on a very comprehensive survey of the pandemic in Spain. Out of 230,000 cases and 29,000 deaths it leaves a mortality rate of 1.15%, almost exactly the same as NZs.
But the key finding was that only 5% of the Spanish population were exposed to it which shoots down the whole "herd immunity" bullshit, unless you are happy to let it run wild and kill 1.15% of your population which in our case would be about 54,000 dead.
So the projections that Jacinda and co were presented with were pretty accurate, so thank you very much to the Labour Government and the brilliant advisory team for keeping us safe and saving us all of the anguish and grieving.
Spain's population is somewhere around 46 to 47 million and 29,000 deaths (worldometers.info has it 27,500 at the moment) I can't see how you got the mortality rate of 1.15%… that would mean somewhere around 500,000 deaths.
My guess is someone used the 5% of exposed population in Spain, so around 2,3 million and 29,000 deaths. How do you precisely determine the “exposed population”?
For me doing forward estimates the mortality is the number of know COVID19 related deaths by the number of known COVID19 cases. And therefore the number is for many countries closer to 10% than 1% (worldometer has a global average of 15%) and will probably reduce over time when the number cases will increase retrospectively (unknown asymptomatic cases at the moment, but known cases in the future, for example determined by blood-tests).
Not following your maths Adrian. 29,000 deaths / 230,000 infections = 12.6% 'mortality rate' for Spain, based on your numbers, so not sure where the "mortality rate of 1.15%" comes from. The apparent death rate in NZ is 21 deaths / 1,150 confirmed infections = 1.8%, or 1.4% if you include probable cases/infections.
IMHO (and from my point of view) our government, public service health workers, and the NZ public in general have done an outstanding job of moderating the impact of Covid-19 on the health and welfare of NZers – long may that continue.
Back in the day, people were obliged to read the Bible. If, like me, you had this brainwashing forced upon you, treat yourself to a fun literary nostalgia trip: https://www.pundit.co.nz/content/a-pandemic-parable
Oscar Kightley: "to some people, broadcaster and journalist Piers Morgan is the devil." Probably because they haven't noticed his lack of horns & forked tail.
Piers may have become less cunty because he can't threaten to sic his reporters on people he hates. Unlike the Generalissimo he doesn't have the apparatus of a fascist state backing him (officially).
Has anyone with a bit of knowledge on the matter got any idea of what is likely to happen with the NZME's attempt to take over Stuff, and what the implications are?
Let's see what that editorial writer says when the actual government rescue package arrives.
The government has both cash carrot and regulatory and legislative sticks in play already. All the power to reorganise the mainstream media to survive 2020 is with Chris Fa'afoi now.
On May 5, Allison, whose real name is being withheld for her safety, received a strange DM. It was from a woman she didn’t know, who informed her that she was on a disturbing website that was compiling information about white women in interracial relationships.
When she went to the website, she found her name, photos, and social media handles under the label “traitors.”
“It was weird, and strange, and creepy,” said Allison, 28. “I was thinking, ‘Who takes the time to do this?’”
The website names, shames, and effectively promotes violence against interracial couples and families — and it’s been circulated in some of the darkest corners of the internet, including in neo-Nazi Discord servers and accelerationist Telegram channels.
[…]
The website was created in April but was taken offline after their initial hosting provider cut ties with them. They then found a home with one of Russia’s largest domain registrars, R01. VICE News contacted R01 on Tuesday to ask whether the site violated their policies. An hour later, the site was taken offline, but as of Wednesday morning it was back up. Tatiana Agafonova, a spokesperson for R01, wrote in an email that the company would “diligently render its services to customers” unless a court rules otherwise or they’re contacted by law enforcement.
There are always post-budget polls in NZ. This year?
I wonder if Mediaworks have the cash. Otherwise it's just Colmar Brunton and TVNZ. And the fewer public polls there are, the more "private" polls get used to fill the gap (as we've seen with the UMR 29% story).
I am sure most (if not everyone) would support the wage subsidy that the govt implemented, a few less on the extension. Given the urgency of the situation at the time, I am pleasantly taken back by effectiveness of the response. BUT I hope that there is adequate follow up on those companies gaming the generosity of this country.
"Our form on this is deeply discouraging. We have already spent some $40b on Christchurch’s rebuild from its earthquakes – and the job’s far from complete. But all we’ve done is create a pleasant replica of a mid-20th century city. Not an exhilarating example of a 21st century city, with all the amenities, technology and liveability that would offer."
"If our businesses and government wonder how New Zealand could follow some of Vivid’s recommendations, they need look no further than The Green Covid Response written by Greenpeace New Zealand."
Greenpeace…not the Greens
"The worry is the coalition parties actually don’t know how to do that."
Prime minister Sophie Wilmès received a cold reception from staff at the Saint Peter hospital in Brussels yesterday on an official visit, when staff formed a reception committee and turned their backs on her ministerial car on arrival.
[…]
The dialogue with the nursing staff and other front-line workers appeared slightly different on her arrival, however. As her car entered the Saint Peter hospital grounds and made its way to the entrance, a double row of health care workers lining the route ostentatiously turned their backs on her arrival, in what some observers described as a “guard of dishonour”.
Representatives later explained that front-line workers were disappointed in the government’s handling of the crisis, and its approach to health care in general, including issues such as budget cuts, low salaries and staff shortages. They are also unhappy about the government’s attempts to recruit unqualified staff to provide support to nursing personnel, rather than pay for trained professionals.
from tourism at least it appears not to any great extent…there are still other areas that have a negative net impact….then there is likely commodity deflation to contend with.
Hopefully much of that reduced activity will parallel property deflation.
New Zealand now has the fourth most depressed construction sector in the world behind China, Qatar and Hong Kong. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy at 8:46am on Thursday, May 2:The Lead: ...
Hi,I am just going to state something very obvious: American police are fucking crazy.That was a photo gracing the New York Times this morning, showing New York City police “entering Columbia University last night after receiving a request from the school.”Apparently in America, protesting the deaths of tens of thousands ...
Winston Peters’ much anticipated foreign policy speech last night was a work of two halves. Much of it was a standard “boilerplate” Foreign Ministry overview of the state of the world. There was some hardening up of rhetoric with talk of “benign” becoming “malign” and old truths giving way to ...
Graham Adams assesses the fallout of the Cass Review — The press release last Thursday from the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women and girls didn’t make the mainstream news in New Zealand but it really should have. The startling title of Reem Alsalem’s statement — “Implementation of ‘Cass ...
This open-for-business, under-new-management cliché-pockmarked government of Christopher Luxon is not the thing of beauty he imagines it to be. It is not the powerful expression of the will of the people that he asserts it to be. It is not a soaring eagle, it is a malodorous vulture. This newest poll should make ...
The latest labour market statistics, showing a rise in unemployment. There are now 134,000 unemployed - 14,000 more than when the National government took office. Which is I guess what happens when the Reserve Bank causes a recession in an effort to Keep Wages Low. The previous government saw a ...
Three opinion polls have been released in the last two days, all showing that the new government is failing to hold their popular support. The usual honeymoon experienced during the first year of a first term government is entirely absent. The political mood is still gloomy and discontented, mainly due ...
National's Finance Minister once met a poor person.A scornful interview with National's finance guru who knows next to nothing about economics or people.There might have been something a bit familiar if that was the headline I’d gone with today. It would of course have been in tribute to the article ...
Rob MacCulloch writes – Throughout the pandemic, the new Vice-Chancellor-of-Otago-University-on-$629,000 per annum-Can-you-believe-it-and-Former-Finance-Minister Grant Robertson repeated the mantra over and over that he saved “lives and livelihoods”.As we update how this claim is faring over the course of time, the facts are increasingly speaking differently. NZ ...
Chris Trotter writes – IT’S A COMMONPLACE of political speeches, especially those delivered in acknowledgement of electoral victory: “We’ll govern for all New Zealanders.” On the face of it, the pledge is a strange one. Why would any political leader govern in ways that advantaged the huge ...
Bryce Edwards writes – The list of former National Party Ministers being given plum and important roles got longer this week with the appointment of former Deputy Prime Minister Paula Bennett as the chair of Pharmac. The Christopher Luxon-led Government has now made key appointments to Bill ...
TL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy at 10:06am on Wednesday, May 1:The Lead: Business confidence fell across the board in April, falling in some areas to levels last seen during the lockdowns because of a collapse in ...
Over the past 36 hours, Christopher Luxon has been dong his best to portray the centre-right’s plummeting poll numbers as a mark of virtue. Allegedly, the negative verdicts are the result of hard economic times, and of a government bravely set out on a perilous rescue mission from which not ...
Auckland Transport have started rolling out new HOP card readers around the network and over the next three months, all of them on buses, at train stations and ferry wharves will be replaced. The change itself is not that remarkable, with the new readers looking similar to what is already ...
Completed reads for April: The Difference Engine, by William Gibson and Bruce Sterling Carnival of Saints, by George Herman The Snow Spider, by Jenny Nimmo Emlyn’s Moon, by Jenny Nimmo The Chestnut Soldier, by Jenny Nimmo Death Comes As the End, by Agatha Christie Lord of the Flies, by ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
Have a story to share about St Paul’s, but today just picturesPopular novels written at this desk by a young man who managed to bootstrap himself out of father’s imprisonment and his own young life in a workhouse Read more ...
The list of former National Party Ministers being given plum and important roles got longer this week with the appointment of former Deputy Prime Minister Paula Bennett as the chair of Pharmac. The Christopher Luxon-led Government has now made key appointments to Bill English, Simon Bridges, Steven Joyce, Roger Sowry, ...
Newsroom has a story today about National's (fortunately failed) effort to disestablish the newly-created Inspector-General of Defence. The creation of this agency was the key recommendation of the Inquiry into Operation Burnham, and a vital means of restoring credibility and social licence to an agency which had been caught lying ...
Holding On To The Present:The moment a political movement arises that attacks the whole idea of social progress, and announces its intention to wind back the hands of History’s clock, then democracy, along with its unwritten rules, is in mortal danger.IT’S A COMMONPLACE of political speeches, especially those delivered in ...
Stuck In The Middle With You:As Christopher Luxon feels the hot breath of Act’s and NZ First’s extremists on the back of his neck and, as he reckons with the damage their policies are already inflicting upon a country he’s described as “fragile”, is there not some merit in reaching out ...
The unpopular coalition government is currently rushing to repeal section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act. The clause is Oranga Tamariki's Treaty clause, and was inserted after its systematic stealing of Māori children became a public scandal and resulted in physical resistance to further abductions. The clause created clear obligations ...
Buzz from the Beehive The government’s official website – which Point of Order monitors daily – not for the first time has nothing much to say today about political happenings that are grabbing media headlines. It makes no mention of the latest 1News-Verian poll, for example. This shows National down ...
It Takes A Train To Cry:Surely, there is nothing lonelier in all this world than the long wail of a distant steam locomotive on a cold Winter’s night.AS A CHILD, I would lie awake in my grandfather’s house and listen to the traffic. The big wooden house was only a ...
Packing A Punch: The election of the present government, including in its ranks politicians dedicated to reasserting the rights of the legislature in shaping and determining the future of Māori and Pakeha in New Zealand, should have alerted the judiciary – including its anomalous appendage, the Waitangi Tribunal – that its ...
Dead Woman Walking: New Zealand’s media industry had been moving steadily towards disaster for all the years Melissa Lee had been National’s media and communications policy spokesperson, and yet, when the crisis finally broke, on her watch, she had nothing intelligent to offer. Christopher Luxon is a patient man - but he’s not ...
Chris Trotter writes – New Zealand politics is remarkably easy-going: dangerously so, one might even say. With the notable exception of John Key’s flat ruling-out of the NZ First Party in 2008, all parties capable of clearing MMP’s five-percent threshold, or winning one or more electorate seats, tend ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Polling shows that Wellington Mayor Tory Whanau has the lowest approval rating of any mayor in the country. Siting at -12 per cent, the proportion of constituents who disapprove of her performance outweighs those who give her the thumbs up. This negative rating is ...
Luxon will no doubt put a brave face on it, but there is no escaping the pressure this latest poll will put on him and the government. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political ...
This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler In the wake of any unusual weather event, someone inevitably asks, “Did climate change cause this?” In the most literal sense, that answer is almost always no. Climate change is never the sole cause of hurricanes, heat waves, droughts, or ...
Something odd happened yesterday, and I’d love to know if there’s more to it. If there was something which preempted what happened, or if it was simply a throwaway line in response to a journalist.Yesterday David Seymour was asked at a press conference what the process would be if the ...
Hi,From time to time, I want to bring Webworm into the real world. We did it last year with the Jurassic Park event in New Zealand — which was a lot of fun!And so on Saturday May 11th, in Los Angeles, I am hosting a lil’ Webworm pop-up! I’ve been ...
Education Minister Erica Standford yesterday unveiled a fundamental reform of the way our school pupils are taught. She would not exactly say so, but she is all but dismantling the so-called “inquiry” “feel good” method of teaching, which has ruled in our classrooms since a major review of the New ...
Exactly where are we seriously going with this government and its policies? That is, apart from following what may as well be a Truss-Lite approach on the purported economic “plan“, and Victorian-era regression when it comes to social policy.Oh it’ll work this time of course, we’re basically assured, “the ...
Hey Uncle Dave, When the Poms joined the EEC, I wasn't one of those defeatists who said, Well, that’s it for the dairy job. And I was right, eh? The Chinese can’t get enough of our milk powder and eventually, the Poms came to their senses and backed up the ute ...
Polling shows that Wellington Mayor Tory Whanau has the lowest approval rating of any mayor in the country. Siting at -12 per cent, the proportion of constituents who disapprove of her performance outweighs those who give her the thumbs up. This negative rating is higher than for any other mayor ...
Buzz from the Beehive Pharmac has been given a financial transfusion and a new chair to oversee its spending in the pharmaceutical business. Associate Health Minister David Seymour described the funding for Pharmac as “its largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff”. ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Many criticisms are being made of the Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill, including by this writer. But as with everything in politics, every story has two sides, and both deserve attention. It’s important to understand what the Government is trying to achieve and its ...
TL;DR: Here’s my top 10 ‘pick ‘n’ mix of links to news, analysis and opinion articles as of 10:10am on Monday, April 29:Scoop: The children's ward at Rotorua Hospital will be missing a third of its beds as winter hits because Te Whatu Ora halted an upgrade partway through to ...
span class=”dropcap”>As hideous as David Seymour can be, it is worth keeping in mind occasionally that there are even worse political figures (and regimes) out there. Iran for instance, is about to execute the country’s leading hip hop musician Toomaj Salehi, for writing and performing raps that “corrupt” the nation’s ...
Yesterday marked 10 years since the first electric train carried passengers in Auckland so it’s a good time to look back at it and the impact it has had. A brief history The first proposals for rail electrification in Auckland came in the 1920’s alongside the plans for earlier ...
Right now, in Aotearoa-NZ, our ‘animal spirits’ are darkening towards a winter of discontent, thanks at least partly to a chorus of negative comments and actions from the Government Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on ...
You make people evil to punish the paststuck inside a sequel with a rotating castThe following photos haven’t been generated with AI, or modified in any way. They are flesh and blood, human beings. On the left is Galatea Young, a young mum, and her daughter Fiadh who has Angelman ...
April has been a quiet month at A Phuulish Fellow. I have had an exceptionally good reading month, and a decently productive writing month – for original fiction, anyway – but not much has caught my eye that suggested a blog article. It has been vaguely frustrating, to be honest. ...
A listing of 31 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 21, 2024 thru Sat, April 27, 2024. Story of the week Anthropogenic climate change may be the ultimate shaggy dog story— but with a twist, because here ...
Hi,I spent about a year on Webworm reporting on an abusive megachurch called Arise, and it made me want to stab my eyes out with a fork.I don’t regret that reporting in 2022 and 2023 — I am proud of it — but it made me angry.Over three main stories ...
The new Victoria University Vice-Chancellor decided to have a forum at the university about free speech and academic freedom as it is obviously a topical issue, and the Government is looking at legislating some carrots or sticks for universities to uphold their obligations under the Education and Training Act. They ...
Do you remember when Melania Trump got caught out using a speech that sounded awfully like one Michelle Obama had given? Uncannily so.Well it turns out that Abraham Lincoln is to Winston Peters as Michelle was to Melania. With the ANZAC speech Uncle Winston gave at Gallipoli having much in ...
She was born 25 years ago today in North Shore hospital. Her eyes were closed tightly shut, her mouth was silently moving. The whole theatre was all quiet intensity as they marked her a 2 on the APGAR test. A one-minute eternity later, she was an 8. The universe was ...
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park in collaboration with members from our Skeptical Science team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Is Antarctica gaining land ice? ...
Images of US students (and others) protesting and setting up tent cities on US university campuses have been broadcast world wide and clearly demonstrate the growing rifts in US society caused by US policy toward Israel and Israel’s prosecution of … Continue reading → ...
Barrie Saunders writes – Dear Paul As the new Minister of Media and Communications, you will be inundated with heaps of free advice and special pleading, all in the national interest of course. For what it’s worth here is my assessment: Traditional broadcasting free to air content through ...
Many criticisms are being made of the Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill, including by this writer. But as with everything in politics, every story has two sides, and both deserve attention. It’s important to understand what the Government is trying to achieve and its arguments for such a bold reform. ...
Peter Dunne writes – The great nineteenth British Prime Minister, William Gladstone, once observed that “the first essential for a Prime Minister is to be a good butcher.” When a later British Prime Minister, Harold Macmillan, sacked a third of his Cabinet in July 1962, in what became ...
Ele Ludemann writes – New Zealanders had the OECD’s second highest tax increase last year: New Zealanders faced the second-biggest tax raises in the developed world last year, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) says. The intergovernmental agency said the average change in personal income tax ...
We all know something’s not right with our elections. The spread of misinformation, people being targeted with soundbites and emotional triggers that ignore the facts, even the truth, and influence their votes.The use of technology to produce deep fakes. How can you tell if something is real or not? Can ...
This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Simon Clark. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). This year you will be lied to! Simon Clark helps prebunk some misleading statements you'll hear about climate. The video includes ...
It is all very well cutting the backrooms of public agencies but it may compromise the frontlines. One of the frustrations of the Productivity Commission’s 2017 review of universities is that while it observed that their non-academic staff were increasing faster than their academic staff, it did not bother to ...
Buzz from the Beehive Two speeches delivered by Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters at Anzac Day ceremonies in Turkey are the only new posts on the government’s official website since the PM announced his Cabinet shake-up. In one of the speeches, Peters stated the obvious: we live in a troubled ...
1. Which of these would you not expect to read in The Waikato Invader?a. Luxon is here to do business, don’t you worry about thatb. Mr KPI expects results, and you better believe itc. This decisive man of action is getting me all hot and excitedd. Melissa Lee is how ...
…it has a restricted jurisdiction which must not be abused: it is not an inquisitionNOTE – this article was published before the High Court ruled that Karen Chhour does not have to appear before the Waitangi Tribunal Gary Judd writes – The High Court ...
Lindsay Mitchell writes – One of reasons Oranga Tamariki exists is to prevent child neglect. But could the organisation itself be guilty of the same?Oranga Tamariki’s statistics show a decrease in the number and age of children in care. “There are less children ...
David Farrar writes: Graeme Edgeler wrote in 2017: In the first five years after three strikes came into effect 5248 offenders received a ‘first strike’ (that is, a “stage-1 conviction” under the three strikes sentencing regime), and 68 offenders received a ‘second strike’. In the five years prior to ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has surprised everyone with his ruthlessness in sacking two of his ministers from their crucial portfolios. Removing ministers for poor performance after only five months in the job just doesn’t normally happen in politics. That’s refreshing and will be extremely ...
TL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy in the two days to 6:06am on Thursday, April 25:Politics: PM Christopher Luxon has set up a dual standard for ministerial competence by demoting two National Cabinet ministers while leaving also-struggling ...
Hi,Today I mainly want to share some of your thoughts about the recent piece I wrote about success and failure, and the forces that seemingly guide our lives. But first, a quick bit of housekeeping: I am doing a Webworm popup in Los Angeles on Saturday May 11 at 2pm. ...
It is hard to see what Melissa Lee might have done to “save” the media. National went into the election with no public media policy and appears not to have developed one subsequently. Lee claimed that she had prepared a policy paper before the election but it had been decided ...
Open access notablesIce acceleration and rotation in the Greenland Ice Sheet interior in recent decades, Løkkegaard et al., Communications Earth & Environment:In the past two decades, mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet has accelerated, partly due to the speedup of glaciers. However, uncertainty in speed derived from satellite products ...
Buzz from the Beehive A statement from Children’s Minister Karen Chhour – yet to be posted on the Government’s official website – arrived in Point of Order’s email in-tray last night. It welcomes the High Court ruling on whether the Waitangi Tribunal can demand she appear before it. It does ...
Mr Bombastic:Ironically, the media the academic experts wanted is, in many ways, the media they got. In place of the tyrannical editors of yesteryear, advancing without fear or favour the interests of the ruling class; the New Zealand news media of today boasts a troop of enlightened journalists dedicated to ...
It's hard times try to make a livingYou wake up every morning in the unforgivingOut there somewhere in the cityThere's people living lives without mercy or pityI feel good, yeah I'm feeling fineI feel better then I have for the longest timeI think these pills have been good for meI ...
In 1974, the US Supreme Court issued its decision in United States v. Nixon, finding that the President was not a King, but was subject to the law and was required to turn over the evidence of his wrongdoing to the courts. It was a landmark decision for the rule ...
The Labour Party is saddened to learn of the death of Sir Robert Martin, a globally renowned disability advocate who led the way for disability rights both in New Zealand and internationally. ...
Labour is calling for the Government to urgently rethink its coalition commitment to restart live animal exports, Labour animal welfare spokesperson Rachel Boyack said. ...
Today’s Financial Stability Report has once again highlighted that poverty and deep inequality are political choices - and this Government is choosing to make them worse. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to do more for our households in most need as unemployment rises and the cost of living crisis endures. ...
Unemployment is on the rise and it’s only going to get worse under this Government, Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said. Stats NZ figures show the unemployment rate grew to 4.3 percent in the March quarter from 4 percent in the December quarter. “This is the second rise in unemployment ...
The New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...
The National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...
This afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...
Te Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...
Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...
Tonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
The Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...
Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...
The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...
Cuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
More essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...
Te Pāti Māori is disgusted at the confirmation that hundreds are set to lose their jobs at Oranga Tamariki, and the disestablishment of the Treaty Response Unit. “This act of absolute carelessness and out of touch decision making is committing tamariki to state abuse.” Said Te Pāti Māori Oranga Tamariki ...
The Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...
Cancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...
A laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi, and Mema Paremata mō Tāmaki-Makaurau, Takutai Tarsh Kemp, will travel to the Gold Coast to strengthen ties with Māori in Australia next week (15-21 April). The visit, in the lead-up to the 9th Australian National Kapa haka Festival, will be an opportunity for both ...
The Green Party has today launched a step-by-step guide to help New Zealanders make their voice heard on the Government’s democracy dodging and anti-environment fast track legislation. ...
The Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...
New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...
Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...
From today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...
People with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...
Kiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...
There are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...
The return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...
The coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...
The Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...
The Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay heads overseas today for high-level trade talks in the Gulf region, and a key OECD meeting in Paris. Mr McClay will travel to Riyadh to meet with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). “New Zealand’s goods and services exports to the Gulf region ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford has outlined six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system that sets Kiwi kids up for future success. “I’m putting ambition, achievement and outcomes at the heart of our education system. I want every child to be inspired and engaged in their learning so they ...
The new NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) App is a secure ‘one stop shop’ to provide the services drivers need, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Digitising Government Minister Judith Collins say. “The NZTA App will enable an easier way for Kiwis to pay for Vehicle Registration and Road User Charges (RUC). ...
Whānau with tamariki growing up in emergency housing motels will be prioritised for social housing starting this week, says Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka. “Giving these whānau a better opportunity to build healthy stable lives for themselves and future generations is an essential part of the Government’s goal of reducing ...
Racing Minister Winston Peters has paid tribute to an icon of the industry with the recent passing of Dave O’Sullivan (OBE). “Our sympathies are with the O’Sullivan family with the sad news of Dave O’Sullivan’s recent passing,” Mr Peters says. “His contribution to racing, initially as a jockey and then ...
Assalaamu alaikum, greetings to you all. Eid Mubarak, everyone! I want to extend my warmest wishes to you and everyone celebrating this joyous occasion. It is a pleasure to be here. I have enjoyed Eid celebrations at Parliament before, but this is my first time joining you as the Minister ...
Associate Health Minister David Seymour has announced Pharmac’s largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff. “Access to medicines is a crucial part of many Kiwis’ lives. We’ve committed to a budget allocation of $1.774 billion over four years so Kiwis are ...
Hon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...
Hundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says. “Every day, ...
Regional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges. “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...
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"A new Māori Party candidate is accusing the Government of "ethnic cleansing" over its COVID-19 response. Donna Pokere-Phillips, who's standing in the Hauraki-Waikato electorate seat" https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/05/covid-19-new-maori-party-candidate-accuses-government-of-ethnic-cleansing.html
She's demonstrating political nous, eh? Generate headlines is the best way to raise your public profile. She's not blaming govt pakeha, specifically. Nor is she blaming Maori govt ministers for the ethnic cleansing. Very clever!
"The lack of Māori response by the Government to COVID-19, the lack of Māori engagement with Māori leadership during the lockdown, the removal by force of our rights protected under Te Tiriti o Waitangi and legislation rushed through under urgency further eroding civil liberties, in short is ethnic cleansing".
She knows how to play the media game. Sometimes people look behind what is said and try to understand what it means.
From the Newshub link, "Modelling released in April by research group Te Pūnaha Matatini shows that because of underlying health conditions, socioeconomic disadvantage and structural racism, the death rate for COVID-19 could be 2.5 times higher for Māori."
"According to the latest data, Māori represent 8 percent of the total cases so far – or 126 people." The statistics are current and obviously might change, significantly or not.
Pokere-Phillips will have genuine concerns about state powers. Getting attention on that with emotional links to bloody extermination is powerful. In method it's a David Farrar approach. The Ministry of Health lists Covid-19 cases by ethnicity. Maybe that's a good place to start in checking the reality of 'ethnic cleansing.'
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases#ethnicity
That, or it's all she's got.
https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_1999/e9/html/e9_partIII_1.html
https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2017/statistics/split-votes-electorate-14.html
A nimble party-hopper! Nobody will accuse her of having convictions. Not a party-pooper. 💃🏽 🍷
The bomber lists 27 things that are currently making him angry. I wonder if he has ever thought of taking a course in anger management? Could reduce the tally. https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2020/05/16/my-pandemic-of-rage/
"I’m angry the NZ Herald dumped the horoscopes, it was the only quality journalism they did." Get real. Those were merely sun-sign generalisations. A horoscope is the diagram of an event in relation to local cosmos. Can't expect journos to grasp such depths.
Oooo Mandy, you are awful!
But I like the cut of your jib and the sophistication that saunters along with it
An horoscope was an helpful guide for your Reagan neocon Den.
Bomber should do daily numerology it is more accurate.
And he's still banging on about the "5 Eyes intelligence dossier "published in the Murdoch press despite the fact its been refuted several times over
Here's one such in the Guardian
"The deputy chair of the Australian parliament’s intelligence and security committee, Anthony Byrne, has been angered by the reported dossier, fearing the episode was reminiscent of the saga surrounding intelligence about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq in 2003."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/07/australia-hits-back-at-us-claim-linking-coronavirus-to-wuhan-lab
And Kevin Rudd not holding back
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/murdoch-media-s-china-coronavirus-conspiracy-has-one-aim-get-trump-re-elected-1.4250379
Until someone can intelligently walk me past the fact that a virus closely linked to bats, has it's first major human outbreak in the same city that happened to have the only lab in the world studying the same family of virus from bats … all the self-serving denials in the world mean nothing.
It could of course be an amazing coincidence, but then if I was found standing over a dead body holding a smoking gun, would any investigator accept my claim that "it wasn't me, it must have been some other bullet"? And then allow me to control access to the crime scene, control all the evidence and tell the police to go away?
Absolutely RL.
Check out Chris Martenson in this postings and ones before it:
Conspiracy Theories abound those who invent them and spread them are trying to be relevant fame seekers.
Trump is their perfect super hero.
He's the hero they deserve.
Unfortunately it fucks everyone else, as well.
Next: Trump gets called batshit crazy. May have already happened.
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=batshit%20crazy
Well , I guess its like John Key said ..more or less my experts against your experts, but lets keep it to science not "intelligence"
Professor Edward Holmes is an evolutionary virologist and a member of the Charles Perkins Centre and the Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity at the University of Sydney
Martenson does a pretty good job of picking apart Holmes's statement at the 18:40 mark of Tony Veitch's video posted above.
Holmes even reinforces the non-natural origin theory by saying that Covid is closest to RaTG13, the lab had access to RaTG13, and RaTG13 is naturally occuring in a different region of China to Wuhan.
Hmmmm
economic researcher and "futurist" spouting Trumpian conspiracy theories versus virologists and reputed medical journals
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/23/21226484/wuhan-lab-coronavirus-china
I’m extremely reluctant to wade into this but the science aspect is mighty interesting.
One of the many missing pieces of the puzzle is why there was a 7-year gap between discovering RaTG13 and publishing the data? If RaTG13 occurs naturally then it should be possible to isolate it from a (its?) natural source, e.g. in the cave where it was purported to have been found in 2013.
The reason that lab was studying diseases in bats is because … in that region are disease carrying bats. Even the US spies deny it's lab made.
Perhaps, just perhaps, they deny it's lab made because Fauci and the CDC were helping to finance research into coronavirus in Wuhan?
A variation is that a bat urinated on a technician in the Wuhan laboratory. This really strengthens the laboratory theory, it ties so well into the 'bat-shit' crazy response to the epidemic from a number of world leaders
/sarc
nope a cat playing with the vial on a shelf knocked it off!!
Maybe the person holding a gun was doing so because they were at a firing range?
It's not uncommon to set up research centres in areas most convenient to conduct that research. Some might say it's almost sensible to do so.
OK so let's go with that idea. Now if we had a terrible accident at this firing range … what would be the first thing the person in charge might do?
Now compare this with what happened in Wuhan?
"OK so let's go with that idea. Now if we had a terrible accident at this firing range … what would be the first thing the person in charge might do? "
Well I'd hazard a guess it wouldnt be let the bent bat shit crazy chief of police that hates your guts and would love to send you down for anything run the investigation.
lol
And in the meantime the person right next to the dead body, holding the hot smoking gun, gets to shutdown the scene, prevent any police from entering the property, control all the information and deny any possible guilt?
A ten year old wouldn't buy it.
The logical problem for anyone wanting to promote the idea that "there is no evidence" that it came from a lab, is they equally have no evidence that it came from a natural host either.
It's like your local police chief standing up at a presser and saying "I don't have a fucking clue" and pretending that somehow solved the case.
"And in the meantime the person right next to the dead body, holding the hot smoking gun, gets to shutdown the scene, prevent any police from entering the property, control all the information and deny any possible guilt?"
What smoking gun?…your problem is there is nobody standing next to a body holding a smoking gun…theres somebody saying there MIGHT have been somebody standing next to the body holding a smoking gun…..or the corpse may not even have a bullet wound…it could have been a heart attack for all you know.
What smoking gun?
Now you are being obdurate, pretending there is no biolab in Wuhan, that it was not studying closely related virus's, that it hadn't published papers on the topic, that their top researcher was not well known for her work in this field … and that the first major COVID outbreak was not in Wuhan.
Yes I can see that if you make all those facts go away, then there is no smoking gun either.
and everyone who dies in the presence of firearms has been deliberately shoot….good grief
Every death in the presence of firearms is thoroughly and carefully investigated by a trusted authority.
Only then can the question of intent be resolved.
Indeed. And the question of whether the person had even been shot.
Forunately, just as a gun leaves a wound and powder residue genetic sequences provide information as to ancestry and provenance. There is no bullet wound.
And the question of whether the person had even been shot.
I would have thought 311,516 deaths to date would have been enough for you.
Oh and that link you gave is to a paper, Holmes is one of the authors, published in early March (and presumably written in the weeks prior) that Martenson addresses in the light of subsequent understanding.
Just because Trump has gotten his sticky mitts on this story does not make him anyone's hero, and it certainly doesn't change the known fact that the CCP have done everything in their power to shut down independent investigation, and promote a narrative exonerating themselves at every step.
Pat, and others, you're missing the point. Chris Martenson is strictly apolitical. He's not trying to support any Trump conspiracy theories, he's looking at the evidence from an entirely logical and evidence based point of view.
His point is that the coronavirus has 'gain of function' additives which could only – stress only – have been added in a lab. He backs up his conclusions with proof which seems convincing to my unscientific mind.
Whether all this feeds into Trump's paranoia and politicising, he makes no comment on.
The forensic evidence points to natural causes….I'll go with the evidence
Please watch the video before commenting – from about the 18 minute mark.
no need to waste 18 minutes….those studying the virus (and without political motives) have determined it is natural in origin…if they change their minds I will re-evaluate.
I've been listening to it for the past 38 min as I'm typing here. Martenson makes a logical and documented case.
And I’m curious how you know the other nameless experts you are relying on are ‘without political motives’.
If you spent a fraction of the energy on seeking out scientific opinion as you do conspiracy hunting you would find ample
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-scientists-think-the-novel-coronavirus-developed-naturally-not-in-a-chinese-lab/
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/health/coronavirus-is-natural-in-origin-who/1826213
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175442.htm
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-05-09/was-the-coronavirus-made-in-a-wuhan-lab-heres-what-the-genetic-evidence-shows
The first link relies on the idea that the closest known bat virus is decades apart in evolutionary terms, but selectively omits that it's routine procedure to force evolution in the lab in a matter of days.
The second link is just reporting assertions with no data
The third link is a re-run of the spike protein optimisation argument that Martenson suggests is not as water tight as being pretended.
The fourth link uses the argument that purposeful genetic manipulation always leaves behind 'telltale fingerprints', which is also not true. The method for avoiding this has been known since 2002, and is well known.
Now my quick scan of your four references is not terribly conclusive, except that even with my very limited understanding I can spot troubling questions and presuppositions in all of them. None of them even vaguely attempt to explain why the first major outbreak occurs in Wuhan, a city many hundreds of km from where the bloody bats live.
According to Chris Martenson, and I paraphrase,
All of the above can be done in a lab.
If you believe the above ‘natural’ selection process, I have a bridge for sale!
For a more scientific version, check out the video at about the 50 minute mark.
thats 4 very poor summaries
Suspect the only solution is a hammer and a nail
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/sunday/audio/2018746806/what-makes-us-believe-conspiracy-theories
Agreed Pat. Human-mediated habitat destruction may have played a role in the formation of Covid-19; advocating that the virus was engineered in a lab is just (bat)shit-stirring – let's wait!
Watched the video at ~19 minutes, including Dr Martenson's first conclusion after 'analysing' "this Professor Holmes" statement:
The excitable Martenson accepted that statement, and then assigned equal likelihood to the contrary statement that 'the virus did originate in a lab', on the basis that there's no evidence either way. IMHO anyone still listening after that 'analysis' is wasting their time, me included.
Martenson is espousing a belief, and asserting that expert virologists are (deliberately) ignoring his ‘analysis’. The idea that Professor Holmes' job depends (somehow) on Holmes not understanding Martenson's belief is ludicrous – wacky stuff!
Martenson's smoking gun, the presence of a "polybasic furin cleavage site" encoded in the Covid-19 genome, was commented on over three months ago – it's nothing new.
https://www.virology.ws/2020/02/13/furin-cleavage-site-in-the-sars-cov-2-coronavirus-glycoprotein/
"…no clear evolutionary pathway has [yet] been identified that would explain the presence of COVID-19’s furin polybasic cleavage site…" – nevertheless, the idea that current molecular sequence databases magically contain a complete record of extant and transient/extinct coronavirus diversity – well, imagine!
"a bat manages to pass a coronavirus to a pangolin, one of only a few thousand left in the world,"
in a wet market where both species were present and in close contact
"which somehow manages to swap part of that virus with a variation already in the pangolin"
which has occurred and been documented on many previous occasions
"This then picks up other critical parts of the virus composition present in pangolins, and –"
see previous
"miracle of miracles – jumps from animals to humans."
previously occurred
"All of the above can be done in a lab."
not easily and only with considerable luck as explained in the linked articles from my previous post…indeed the odds are far greater of it occurring naturally than by design.
Do you own a bridge?
lol. My explanation sure does miss the make a bit – and that's because the science is way beyond me – in terms of explaining it.
But I hope you'll take the time to go to the video and the 50 minute make and spend a few minutes listening to the explanation given by Chris Martenson. Then get back to me.
Cheers.
What if there was a pangolin in the Wuhan lab which caught the virus from a bat and the pangolin was not disposed of properly and someone touched a piece of the pangolin or materials which were used in the disposal of the pangolin?
Without doubt the virus has occurred naturally and is not man made.
Does it really matter if the virus came from the lab or the Wuhan market?
How the virus jumped to humans from bats/pangolins is what I would like to know?
Huh? How can one (e.g. you) be so absolutely 100% sure of this? Has anybody isolated it from a (its?) natural source other than infected humans and now cats, it appears?
If it was man-made we wouldn’t have to worry about how exactly it jumped species, would we?
If it wasn't a natural source I think that this would have been picked up with the sequencing.
The virus is seen in bats, pangolins, humans and cats. There is a clue that the virus does jump in a natural way as it has jumped from humans to cats.
Nothing is 100% with science.
How would sequencing pick that up?
Incorrect! The virus is not seen in bats and pangolins; there are similar viruses found in these species but they are not identical and definitely not close enough to be called “the virus”. There are some interesting questions hanging over the origin of RaTG13 based on close analysis and inspection of its genome (i.e. by sequencing). AFAIK, all reports of infected cats have been controlled experimental studies in the lab and large cats in zoos (https://thestandard.org.nz/dont-infect-your-feline-master/) and human-to-cat transfer, not the other way round. In any case, this is the same virus that jumps, not a similar one.
I said human to cat transmission.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-08/Latest-finding-of-the-novel-coronavirus-origin-bat-and-pangolin-Qku7BSHP5m/index.html
I have not read a closer fit than the theory that a bat gave the virus to a pangolin and a pangolin is the likely transmission to a human host.
When it comes to what reservoir caused AIDS, Ebola, MERs and similar viruses a lot is still unknown. Maybe there is a connection and this needs research.
I cannot fix the link.
[Link fixed]
Yes, I know you said that but the important (to me) point was that this is the same virus. They have yet to figure out where it came from and how and when it jumped and from which species to human.
Indeed, more research is needed and not just on SARS-COVID-2.
I’ve fixed the link.
Except observing gradually increasing numbers of people with pneumonia isn't quite as obvious as the firing range analogy would suggest. Analogies do have their limits.
Did China act suspiciously slowly? I'm not so sure on that – they coded the sequence pretty quickly, got WHO in towards the end of January ISTR. Yeah, they did some "in denial" initially, but that seems to be common practise these days – very few of the top-tier nations can throw stones in that regard, so maybe China simply had the same motives as around half the members of the G7/8.
AND they released the genome sequence publicly early.
How early? When do you know they first had it? Only by knowing that you can say it was 'early' or not.
Sequencing these days is remarkably fast; once there were cases in other countries it was only a matter of days before the sequence became public domain anyway.
This is dated Jan 11
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/china-releases-genetic-data-new-coronavirus-now-deadly
Chinese scientists submitted the gene sequencing data for posting on Virological.org, a hub for prepublication data designed to assist with public health activities and research. Earlier this week, they announced that they had isolated and fully sequenced the virus, setting off calls for full release of the details. The post was communicated by Edward Holmes, PhD, with the University of Sydney, on behalf of a Chinese group led by Yong-Zhen Zhang, PhD, with Fudan University in Shanghai.
The first known case is now thought to be back in November 13.
The first cases known outside of China was in Thailand early in January
This means there was a potential 8 week window in which the virus could have been sequenced in China before it reached the rest of the world.
In fact it was published in the very last week of that window. Holding this up as virtuously 'early' doesn't seem impressive to me.
May be not that impressive, BUT if you are developing a bioweapon why publish the plans?
Because the virus comes with it's own plan, once it got out of China it was a matter of days before everyone had it anyway.
Nor is anyone here using the term 'bioweapon' because that implies malicious intent. Because to date we have no trusted investigation, and no evidence based chain of events, no-one should yet be claiming this virus was intended to have a military purpose.
But that is quite different to ruling out a lab origin.
Oh come on – there's a massive difference between a known case of a new syndrome and a retrospective diagnosis.
@McF
Yes there is a massive difference; that's why I was careful to use the term 'potential window'. Yes it's highly unlikely anyone would have sequenced the new virus back in November, but equally releasing it just before it was going to become public domain anyway really doesn't mean much.
In essence it comes back to knowing exactly when Chinese first had a sequence for it, and until you know that for certain any notion of 'early' is arbitrary.
"Early" is always a relative term, but when judging actions it usually is in reference to something that could be known at the time.
24 december first test of an unresolved clinical case throws up the issue. Alert raised a few days later. Sequence released 11 jan.
I mean, good luck with pretending that the first case was identified as a new disease and covered up for six weeks. The coverup is plausible – we've seen it from a variety of regimes. Identifying case #1 at the time? Not so much, especially if it looks like pneumonia and is in winter.
Wrong. The first case was on December the 27th in Paris,spread by a food hall worker returning from a Xmas trip to Wuhan to a co-worker who gave it to her husband. Nice Chrissy pressie. All as widely reported a few weeks ago.
Now, if you can't even get that right, where does all this bat-shit crazy stuff come from. Out of the arse of some foaming RW nutjob?
[Please keep your tone civil, thanks – Incognito]
See my Moderation note @ 1:05 PM.
@Adrian
Indeed. The cases in Thailand were the ones recognised early, while the case in Paris has only been found in retrospect within the past week, so for the purpose of my argument it is absolutely irrelevant.
Hence the first cases outside of China that were diagnosed and could have been sequenced by non-Chinese researchers were sometime in mid January, which doesn't change the timeline at all.
In reality the Chinese lab in Shanghai (apparently shut down since) probably did the right thing and published the sequence pretty much when they first got it in early January. But to then claim this was somehow virtuously ‘early’, when the damned virus had already gone global is kind of stretching it.
As for my sources, I’ve been open on this for months. I am close to a well connected Chinese family, who have been conveying all this and much more to me since mid January.
Do you know if the genome sequence has been checked independently?
What do you mean? Samples from patients have been sequenced all around the world, including New Zealand. Unless the Chinese scientists share the original sample for independent sequencing, it is just a long sequence of four letters. The similarity between the published original sequence and subsequent patient samples is very high.
So checking has been done.
As for the original sequence sample I will give China the benefit of the doubt unless proven to be otherwise.
Yes i read a detailed account of how they could track the speed of the virus by the characteristics of the genome.
I put a comment here a while back.
Well, yes, and the so-called phylogenetic tree of the human cases is highly consistent with the published first sequence. None of this, however, proves anything about the true origin of the virus and where/how it allegedly jumped to humans.
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/05/08/1158204/the-new-zealand-strains-how-the-coronavirus-got-here
Well, do people outside this lab have contact with bats? Are you suggesting the virus came first?
Why not ask the French since it’s a joint French/Chinese research facility? Or do idiot levels of xenophobia simply not extend beyond Asian peoples to European ones?
The US outsourced it's bat virus research to China, too.
Newsweek recently put out some surprising reports that the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) had funded the controversial Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). The WIV is the level four research facility suspected by some of being a possible source for the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has already been on record confirming and defending this funding, saying it was “to protect American people from labs that aren’t up to standard.”
[…]
A third reason could be the fact that the United States has long held a fierce debate about the ethics and risks of gain-of-function (GOF) research. Critics, such as Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, have argued that such work “entails a unique risk that a laboratory accident could spark a pandemic, killing millions.” These objections motivated the Obama administration to halt all domestic GOF research in 2011, a restriction that was later lifted in 2017, following the implementation of new safety protocols. Although we do not know exactly what went into the decision to fund the WIV during this moratorium, it is likely that domestic restrictions may have played a role, forcing the proponents of such work to seek opportunities abroad. These proponents are of the opinion that GOF research is worth the risk, being the best way to understand, prevent, and treat pandemics, an argument that is not without merit
https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/why-would-the-us-have-funded-the-controversial-wuhan-lab/
https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/why-us-outsourced-bat-virus-research-to-wuhan/
The French were involved in designing and building the WIV facility but not operating it.
As for the 'idiot levels of xenophobia' my Chinese friends would like to explain that not all Chinese think the CCP is wonderful. They find the idea that they all think exactly alike a little bit patronising.
Thank God Australia is breaking through all thise po-faced Chinese "you can't criticise us" crap.
New Zealand is reportedly among 62 nations that have come together to back Australia's call for an independent inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic.
The Australian newspaper reported that it had obtained a draft resolution to be put to the World Health Assembly on Tuesday which was backed by key nations including India, Japan, the UK, Canada, New Zealand, Indonesia, Russia, Mexico, Brazil, and all 27 EU member states.
It demands World Health Organisation director-general Dr Tedros Ghebreyesus "initiate at the earliest appropriate moment … a stepwise process of impartial, independent and comprehensive evaluation" of the international response to the pandemic, the actions of the WHO and its timeline of the pandemic.
Yes my perspective here is probably coloured not just by my close contacts with Chinese locally, but because I'm reading a lot more Australian media than many people here.
One thing that is quite remarkable is this CCP 'wolf warrior' diplomacy the CCP let loose in April, and just how many nations they have gone out of their way to pick a fight with in just the past six weeks. Here in Australia alone they have shutdown imports from four major abbatoirs on transparently bogus 'technical' grounds, are in the process of an absurd 80% tariff on barley (apparently due to govt subsidises), have threatened to go to Brazil for iron ore and beef, and are now hinting that Chinese will not 'want' to visit Australia nor send their children to University here.
And Australia is by no means the only nation being threatened like this, the list is growing almost daily. Even NZ has gotten the treatment over Winston's proposal that Taiwan should be recognised by WHO.
Much of this will turn out to be bluster, but then last week when Trump mused about 'shutting down the entire relationship with China', official state media reported senior CCP officials saying that if that happened then there would be no restraint stopping them from a military invasion of Taiwan.
None of this strikes me as a China acting from a position of strength and confidence. The theory most plausible at the moment is the CCP is striving hard to inflame domestic nationalistic passions that can be directed toward internal repression, and maintenance of political control in the one party state.
"The embassy in Canberra declined to comment on a report in the Nine newspapers on Thursday of suspicions within senior ranks of the government and the intelligence community about a staffer’s possible role."
Blame a junior staffer has become popular of late. Usually interns or on short-term contracts, thus expendable. Also privacy law means you can never name them. Keeps the theory conjectural – anonymity plus obfuscation covers up reliably.
Rudd advises not drawing conclusions "until all the facts are on the table". Reminds us why he was such a spectacular failure as PM. Has anyone ever seen China put all the facts on the table about anything? Of course not. Nor the US, in recent memory.
You're suggesting that the wish to have all facts on the table before accusing another nation of the most dire malevolent actions disqualifies him from public office?
Jesus, no wonder we have politicians of such low calibre these days
No, just pointing to the fact that wishing to have all the facts on the table (about anything) is merely wishful thinking. An intelligent person would realise that before making a fool of themselves in public, right?
I fully support the democratic right of wishful thinkers to have political careers, of course. Likewise the mentally ill. Those who complain about Trump having no right to be doing his deranged thing are exhibiting their discrimination against mentally-challenged folk…
Rudd didn't ask himself, what would the Generalissimo have done? An horrible herror.
Thanks for the links francesca. To me the topic is summed up nicely at the end of the first link:
It not just simplicity. It's politics – as opposed to a well researched scientific explanation which is not yet complete.
A handful of leaders have good cause to introduce conspiracy theories despite the fact there is no evidential backing for them. Leading the charge is Trump. That tells me it is designed to cover his own appalling record of narcissism, arrogance, incompetence, stupidity and incoherence reminiscent of a two year old having a tantrum.
Leading the charge is Trump. That tells me it is designed to cover his own appalling record of narcissism, arrogance, incompetence, stupidity and incoherence reminiscent of a two year old having a tantrum.
Which is all true of Trump.
But this does not speak to anything that happened in Wuhan or the subsequent actions of the CCP to close down any investigation. Trump's stupidity and incoherence does not erase the known perfidy of the CCP.
And besides the work being done by many people trying to independently understand the origin of SARS-COV-2 was underway months before Trump got onto the bandwagon.
No, it does not speak to what happened in Wuhan, but Trump is the one spreading the conspiracies (together with his influential supporters in the media and elsewhere) and he isn't doing so out of genuine concern to trace the origin of the virus.
We don't yet know the truth of what happened in Wuhan but I'll wager a bet it was never part of the sinister conspiracy Trump and co. are trying to generate in an attempt to detract from his miserable performance.
One theory I heard sometime back which has a grain of plausibility:
this research centre in Wuhan might have been offloading some of its ' specimens' to the wet markets once they no longer had any use for them. Now, if that proved to be the case, it wouldn't surprise me if China is trying to keep it under wraps.
I'll wager a bet any country including America would do the same thing under the same circumstances. That's not a conspiracy though. It's a guilty conscience that the local Chinese authorities took their eyes off the ball.
There are a whole range of possibilities; everything from an engineered bio-weapon through to naturally occurring mutation, with a LOT of possibilities in between. At this point in time I'm willing to accept they're all in play, no-one has conclusively ruled anything in or out.
But right from the outset the CCP has been acting as if they had something to hide. Sure there has been cooperation and apparent transparency where it aligns with their self-serving narrative, but no rigorous independent outside scrutiny by a trusted authority. Every week that has gone by has reduced the chance of anyone ever finding out the truth of this matter, and over time the CCP can probably count of people not caring enough to insist.
Maybe Stalin was right when he said "the death of one man is a tragedy, the death of millions a statistic".
How does the Chinese government behaviour differ from that of any other nation that has hidden the extent of its problem, gamed the data or testing to keep apparent numbers low, or simply claimed to have a minimal problem while its all-cause mortality rate seems to have gone through the roof?
If the first outbreak had been in Auckland, our govt had badly mishandled it so that it got loose in the world, and then refused to engage with any independent accountability … would you be making the same excuse?
Or do special rules apply to the CCP?
It was a pretty simple question.
Asking for comparisons to the behaviour of countries like the US or Russia is quite the opposite of making excuses and a double standard for China.
Was it the question you objected to, or was it merely the answer that initially came to your mind?
Will Star Wars be coming to New Zealand? Sounds far fetched but there is increasing speculation (not just this entertainment article) that our government's response could reap big rewards with the risk averse international film industry.
Apparently, the NZ guilds and safety industry worked very hard to get their work protocol document signed off by Work Safe. A government sanctioned system in a one state country looks very attractive to both producers and cast alike.
Capacity is an issue though.
They made those prequels in Aus, so why not. I just wish our big flash directors made NZ movies again, instead of easy cash cows.
Jojo rabbit was a NZ movie, Nelson author and huge number of Kiwis fought to stop the stupidity.
Wasn't a NZ story, which is what I meant. I also thought JoJo Rabbit was shite, had some laughs, but pretty Carry On really (yet I loved Thor Ragnarok so I'm not total kill joy). Looking forward to the Luminaries tonight.
An idea moving forward . Move to a 4 on 4 off working week. Business open 7 days spreads the congestion over 7 days ,rather than 5 full on 2 less so. Increased employment opportunities And 4 day weekends will encourage more getaways to enhance local tourism. Work and life would be in balance.
My statistician son has filled me in on a very comprehensive survey of the pandemic in Spain. Out of 230,000 cases and 29,000 deaths it leaves a mortality rate of 1.15%, almost exactly the same as NZs.
But the key finding was that only 5% of the Spanish population were exposed to it which shoots down the whole "herd immunity" bullshit, unless you are happy to let it run wild and kill 1.15% of your population which in our case would be about 54,000 dead.
So the projections that Jacinda and co were presented with were pretty accurate, so thank you very much to the Labour Government and the brilliant advisory team for keeping us safe and saving us all of the anguish and grieving.
"Out of 230,000 cases and 29,000 deaths it leaves a mortality rate of 1.15%, almost exactly the same as NZs."
That's 12.6% by my calculator
Of the population, sorry should have clearer.
Spain's population is somewhere around 46 to 47 million and 29,000 deaths (worldometers.info has it 27,500 at the moment) I can't see how you got the mortality rate of 1.15%… that would mean somewhere around 500,000 deaths.
My guess is someone used the 5% of exposed population in Spain, so around 2,3 million and 29,000 deaths. How do you precisely determine the “exposed population”?
For me doing forward estimates the mortality is the number of know COVID19 related deaths by the number of known COVID19 cases. And therefore the number is for many countries closer to 10% than 1% (worldometer has a global average of 15%) and will probably reduce over time when the number cases will increase retrospectively (unknown asymptomatic cases at the moment, but known cases in the future, for example determined by blood-tests).
Not following your maths Adrian. 29,000 deaths / 230,000 infections = 12.6% 'mortality rate' for Spain, based on your numbers, so not sure where the "mortality rate of 1.15%" comes from. The apparent death rate in NZ is 21 deaths / 1,150 confirmed infections = 1.8%, or 1.4% if you include probable cases/infections.
IMHO (and from my point of view) our government, public service health workers, and the NZ public in general have done an outstanding job of moderating the impact of Covid-19 on the health and welfare of NZers – long may that continue.
+1000 even with barfly’s correction
Adrian plus 1000
Back in the day, people were obliged to read the Bible. If, like me, you had this brainwashing forced upon you, treat yourself to a fun literary nostalgia trip: https://www.pundit.co.nz/content/a-pandemic-parable
Oscar Kightley: "to some people, broadcaster and journalist Piers Morgan is the devil." Probably because they haven't noticed his lack of horns & forked tail.
"You could hardly accuse Morgan of being a bleeding heart, liberal, SWJ, leftie socialist. He probably has more in common with Mike Hosking than, say, John Campbell. And yet even Morgan says that Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has done a great job leading the country through the global Covid19 pandemic. Furthermore, Morgan wishes the UK had a leader like Ardern." https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/121535321/the-worlds-turned-upside-down-when-piers-morgan-praises-jacinda-ardern
Well, there you go. Evidence of cross-over appeal established. Goldsmith will have to become heroic to prevail. I bet he doesn't know how.
Piers may have become less cunty because he can't threaten to sic his reporters on people he hates. Unlike the Generalissimo he doesn't have the apparatus of a fascist state backing him (officially).
Wrong way round too, sport.
https://twitter.com/brahaminda/status/1261657076432089089
Has anyone with a bit of knowledge on the matter got any idea of what is likely to happen with the NZME's attempt to take over Stuff, and what the implications are?
It's giving me the willies!
Stuff told them to fuck off in no uncertain terms. No idea what happens next though.
Read this from Stuff's political editor. It's extraordinary.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/121506766/govt-wont-bail-out-media-but-stuff-has-other-dance-partners
Wow – that's hugely helpful – thanks Weka
Let's see what that editorial writer says when the actual government rescue package arrives.
The government has both cash carrot and regulatory and legislative sticks in play already. All the power to reorganise the mainstream media to survive 2020 is with Chris Fa'afoi now.
Guerilla warfare by the 5G Liberation Front seems to be escalating. RNZ news at noon reported 17 tower attacks recently.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300014192/fires-at-cell-phone-tower-power-box-in-south-auckland-investigated
Are super spreaders just loud mouths?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300014255/coronavirus-speaking-loudly-could-help-spread-covid19-study-finds
Russia plays footsie with nazis, again.
//
On May 5, Allison, whose real name is being withheld for her safety, received a strange DM. It was from a woman she didn’t know, who informed her that she was on a disturbing website that was compiling information about white women in interracial relationships.
When she went to the website, she found her name, photos, and social media handles under the label “traitors.”
“It was weird, and strange, and creepy,” said Allison, 28. “I was thinking, ‘Who takes the time to do this?’”
The website names, shames, and effectively promotes violence against interracial couples and families — and it’s been circulated in some of the darkest corners of the internet, including in neo-Nazi Discord servers and accelerationist Telegram channels.
[…]
The website was created in April but was taken offline after their initial hosting provider cut ties with them. They then found a home with one of Russia’s largest domain registrars, R01. VICE News contacted R01 on Tuesday to ask whether the site violated their policies. An hour later, the site was taken offline, but as of Wednesday morning it was back up. Tatiana Agafonova, a spokesperson for R01, wrote in an email that the company would “diligently render its services to customers” unless a court rules otherwise or they’re contacted by law enforcement.
https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/n7ww4w/white-supremacists-built-a-website-to-doxx-interracial-couples-and-its-going-to-be-hard-to-take-down
https://twitter.com/aceoaces/status/1261751511672995841
There are always post-budget polls in NZ. This year?
I wonder if Mediaworks have the cash. Otherwise it's just Colmar Brunton and TVNZ. And the fewer public polls there are, the more "private" polls get used to fill the gap (as we've seen with the UMR 29% story).
Sun/Mon night, we'll find out. Save Our Simon!
I am sure that when a party is not doing well they would want polls being kept to a minimum months out from an election.
This is Trump's America…
F**kin sick!
https://twitter.com/NeverAgainActn/status/1261354366193328129
..and barking..
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1261747580666552320
USA Covid-19 update.
Cases: 1,507,773
Deaths: 90,113
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
1 sneeze away from > Vietnam + Korea combined
It must feel like waiting round to die. Hat tip to the sadly not immortal Townes van Zandt.
I am sure most (if not everyone) would support the wage subsidy that the govt implemented, a few less on the extension. Given the urgency of the situation at the time, I am pleasantly taken back by effectiveness of the response. BUT I hope that there is adequate follow up on those companies gaming the generosity of this country.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/121148182/coronavirus-wage-subsidy-biggest-money-scramble-nz-has-seen
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/business/restaurant-chain-good-group-makes-more-than-150-workers-redundant/
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/121500097/farmers-slammed-for-taking-covid19-wage-subsidies
Herodotus, you forgot to publish the repayments.
Comedian Jim Carrey has a cough and a runny nose.
https://www.twitter.com/JimCarrey/status/1261722745978490882
"Our form on this is deeply discouraging. We have already spent some $40b on Christchurch’s rebuild from its earthquakes – and the job’s far from complete. But all we’ve done is create a pleasant replica of a mid-20th century city. Not an exhilarating example of a 21st century city, with all the amenities, technology and liveability that would offer."
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/05/17/1173269/lets-buy-the-best
a pleasant (badly built) replica at that…
"If our businesses and government wonder how New Zealand could follow some of Vivid’s recommendations, they need look no further than The Green Covid Response written by Greenpeace New Zealand."
Greenpeace…not the Greens
"The worry is the coalition parties actually don’t know how to do that."
Cheers to Rod Oram.
He has the temerity to suggest this government should have future-focused ideals and form a plan that will deliver them.
Wilmes was Minister of Budget in the prior government when austerity measures were introduced.
https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status/1261789548520132612
Prime minister Sophie Wilmès received a cold reception from staff at the Saint Peter hospital in Brussels yesterday on an official visit, when staff formed a reception committee and turned their backs on her ministerial car on arrival.
[…]
The dialogue with the nursing staff and other front-line workers appeared slightly different on her arrival, however. As her car entered the Saint Peter hospital grounds and made its way to the entrance, a double row of health care workers lining the route ostentatiously turned their backs on her arrival, in what some observers described as a “guard of dishonour”.
Representatives later explained that front-line workers were disappointed in the government’s handling of the crisis, and its approach to health care in general, including issues such as budget cuts, low salaries and staff shortages. They are also unhappy about the government’s attempts to recruit unqualified staff to provide support to nursing personnel, rather than pay for trained professionals.
https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-news/belgium-all-news/112032/prime-minister-gets-a-chilly-reception-from-hospital-staff/
https://theconversation.com/amp/the-costs-of-the-shutdown-are-overestimated-theyre-outweighed-by-its-1-trillion-benefit-138303
Good read. Keen to see if that estimate upon which it's all based of 60% population infection to get to herd immunity holds up.
This is the kind of analysis we need from similar academics for New Zealand.
https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/balance-of-trade
balance of trade seasonal…look at the long run data and you will see the pattern is (as yet) unchanged
Yet to be seen I suppose. The current account is on that site also.
Personally I don't think our, net! overseas earnings will be much affected.
So many things balance out.
from tourism at least it appears not to any great extent…there are still other areas that have a negative net impact….then there is likely commodity deflation to contend with.
Hopefully much of that reduced activity will parallel property deflation.
Land deflation would be a good thing to come out of this.
Though we can already see the attempts, to get "high net worth immigrants" to keep the land speculation gravy train going.