Open mike 17/06/2023

67 comments on “Open mike 17/06/2023 ”

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1. Dennis Frank 1

   17 June 2023 at 7:12 am

   Another `be kind to each other' moment…

   New Zealand’s democratic decline is outlined in a new report from the Auckland University think-tank Koi Tū: The Centre for Informed Futures, called Sustaining Aotearoa New Zealand As A Cohesive Society.

   An election campaign can exacerbate that polarisation, one of the report’s authors maintains. Sir Peter Gluckman, president of the International Science Council, says that how election issues are conducted can further divide society.

   https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/300906931/janet-wilson-ditch-the-rancour-we-need-grownup-political-debate

   Not rocket science though. Democracy was established for the purpose of dividing society so how issues are debated is divisive in consequence. To unify everyone, you'd have to create a different governance system.

   Labour’s own pollsters Talbot-Mills in its April 27-May 3 testing where 40% believed the country was moving in the right direction, while 52% believed it was travelling in the wrong one.

   Why do most feel headed in the wrong direction? Pollsters don't ask such questions. They'd likely get answers like "God's will" or "market forces".

   Diagnosing a lack of trust & cohesion is no surprise, but advising everyone to behave themselves seems as much of a solution as whistling in the dark.
   • bwaghorn 1.1

     17 June 2023 at 7:39 am

     Half those 52% probably think where going to left the other half to right.

     The 40% will be pragmatists ,optimists and those not paying attention, who think that decline is inevitable due to population growth and things are still not to bad.
   • weka 1.2

     17 June 2023 at 8:46 am

     Democracy was established for the purpose of dividing society so how issues are debated is divisive in consequence.

     care to explain that a bit more?
     • Dennis Frank 1.2.1

       17 June 2023 at 9:21 am

       One could do so at considerable length. A brief response is best but will challenge my ability to be concise! First, it depends on context. For ancient Greeks, that was the polis (city).

       The best form of government of the polis for Plato is the one that leads to the common good. The philosopher king is the best ruler because, as a philosopher, he is acquainted with the Form of the Good. In Plato's analogy of the ship of state, the philosopher king steers the polis, as if it were a ship, in the best direction.

       So we inherited governance as wise steering, combined with rulership. The latter element was morphed by democracy from natural group selection into a set of rules.

       The British empire codified such time-tested rules into a body of law, which we inherited in the 19th century. It divides everyone into citizens & representatives, assuming the latter to act upon common interests with the former. Unfortunately the system never evolved the capacity to formalise that common-interest basis. Make it up as you go along became the pragmatic option, so reps realised their personal interests could always take precedence. Thus the democracy sham (Labour dude Bryan Gould wrote the book entitled that).
       • weka 1.2.1.1

         17 June 2023 at 11:51 am

         ok that's interesting but it doesn't explain,

         Democracy was established for the purpose of dividing society so how issues are debated is divisive in consequence.

         Who established that particular purpose? And how is the purpose one of dividing society? Do you mean having representatives is dividing society?
         • Dennis Frank 1.2.1.1.1

           17 June 2023 at 12:43 pm

           Oh, you mean the particular groups in power in any particular context? The behavioural pattern evident to whoever reads history is that a binary relation rules how that develops, in a generic sense: rulers/ruled.

           The typical pattern is established by a conqueror, who then proceeds to delegate power to helpers, who entrench within a particular social ecosystem to form a ruling class (the 19th century framing, known earlier as aristocracy).

           This division morphs into plurality via forms of democracy, incorporating merchants, scribes, officials. The originating binary becomes less apparent. Magna Carta being baron-enforced, later forming the basis of parliament. Then reps entered the ruling class to supplement the original division.
           • Incognito 1.2.1.1.1.1

             17 June 2023 at 1:22 pm

             Weka might be satisfied with this non-answer but to me you’re just continuing with your flawed reckons. In good faith debate, parties meet somewhere in the middle rather than digging into their entrenched views & positions.

             Your views of history and of democracy in particular are simplistic and deterministic. You still ignore/overlook the complexity and diversity of historical processes and contexts, and you still reduce them to a single pattern that ignores the role of agency, contingency, resistance, and change. You wrongly assume that democracy is a recent phenomenon that emerged from ‘a conqueror’ down to ‘the ruling class’, but democracy has a long & varied history that dates back to ancient Greece, as you already have correctly alluded to. I have already argued that it involves different forms of popular participation and self-government. You neglect the influence of other factors & forces that shaped the development of democracy, such as social movements, revolutions, wars, ideologies, cultures, religions, even (modern) technologies, et cetera. Lastly, you imply that democracy is a static & fixed concept. But democracy is a dynamic idea that evolves over time and differently in different geographical locations – the concept of democracy itself has been challenged too.
             • Dennis Frank …

               17 June 2023 at 1:30 pm

               Yeah, I've written about ancient Greek democracy a few times on TS in the past. I'm interested in the general principles involved, and how they have morphed society & culture in their application thro various contexts.

               I own books on ancient Greek democracy & I have read them. Likewise books reviewing the history of democracy. I comment on that basis.
               • Incognito …

                 17 June 2023 at 2:06 pm

                 I’ve no doubt that you’ve written about it here in the past and I’ll have to take your word for it.

                 Undoubtedly, you’re not the only one here with a keen interest in this topic. After all, this is a political blog site has been going strong since 2007.

                 I’m sure you own many books and have read them all, some probably more than once. They may even be good books, who knows?

                 The problem with your comments is that you seem to think that we should all take these things as a given, without a link or shred of evidence, and accept your authoritative views without challenge or hesitation!?

                 Without support for your views they become merely reckons that cannot be reasonably debated here on TS and anyone who makes an attempt at this exercise in futility is guaranteed to waste their time.

                 QED
                 • Dennis Frank …

                   17 June 2023 at 2:14 pm

                   Fair enough, but I wasn't trying to come on like some kind of authority figure. I'm aware that detecting patterns in history is subjective.

                   Re the democracy sham, did you read Bryan Gould's book about it? If so, I'd be interested in your take. He wrote it on the basis of his lengthy experience in Labour politics and his success with that.
                   • Incognito …

                     17 June 2023 at 2:27 pm

                     Ok, thanks. I may have misread the tone of your comments, but the many problems with them remain.

                     No, I have not read Gould’s book. He’s written a few, hasn’t he?
                   • Dennis Frank …

                     17 June 2023 at 3:00 pm

                     https://bryangould.com/the-democracy-sham/

                     He comes from an economics perspective primarily, but he's on about the warping effect neoliberalism has on democracy too. In terms of the gist of my earlier comments, he illuminates the rulers/ruled dichotomy via the influence of transnational corporations.

                     So his focus is the emergence of those as the primary determinants of the globalising of the market. Back in 2006 corporations were looming as public enemy #1 in the minds of many. Since then we've a trend towards benign corporations (see Senge's The Necessary Revolution, which documents that paradigm shift).

                     We thought MMP would provide more power to the people but it currently doesn't seem like it did really – or maybe it's just the winter of our discontent…
       • Incognito 1.2.1.2

         17 June 2023 at 11:57 am

         Your opinion of democracy and your pseudo-factual analysis & explanation are deeply flawed. Left unchallenged on a political blog, it would be highly problematic and a dereliction of duty of any politically-aware person with even only the slightest of historical knowledge and who cares about politics, democracy, and the democratic process.

         Democracy doesn’t have a single origin and purpose; it has evolved over time and across different contexts. You completely ignore the wide range of democratic forms and practices, such as direct democracy, representative democracy, deliberative democracy, E-democracy, et cetera. Arguably, TS is an example of E-democracy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-democracy). You’re conflating democracy with debate; democracy involves many other aspects such as participation, representation, accountability, transparency, et cetera. You imply that division is always negative and undesirable; perhaps somewhat contentiously, division (but not polarisation!) can also reflect pluralism, diversity and healthy disagreement aka a contest of ideas.

         You cherry-pick one case, be it historical or literary-philosophical, and generalise it to all democracies, thereby ignoring the differences between ancient and modern contexts aka presentism (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presentism_(literary_and_historical_analysis)). You misrepresent the Greek notion of the polis as a unitary and homogeneous entity, i.e., like ‘a ship’, but in reality the polis was composed of multiple groups and factions with conflicting interests and values. You seem to idealise the role of the philosopher king as a benevolent and wise ruler who knows the common good. However, in reality such a ruler could be corrupt, biased or mistaken, as indeed plenty of historical examples have shown. You dismiss the value of popular sovereignty, self-government, and having a say in policy-making & decision-making as essential elements of democracy.
         • Dennis Frank 1.2.1.2.1

           17 June 2023 at 12:45 pm

           You're totally correct of course. That's why I provided Weka with a brief summary to focus on the key points…
           • Incognito 1.2.1.2.1.1

             17 June 2023 at 12:57 pm

             What or rather whose key points? They are your points of view, nothing else.

             I countered your reckons and all you have to offer is this pathetic reply!?

             You also did not provide a link for the text you quoted and you may want to rectify this, at least.

             It feels to me that weka and I are wasting our precious time on this
             • Dennis Frank …

               17 June 2023 at 1:05 pm

               It was the polis page on Wikipedia, sorry. I would have thought the binary divide between govt & opposition was sufficiently well-known as a structural component of democracy to make the point all by itself.

               Therefore I didn't mention it. However, if you want it spelt out: democracy divides, by design. Thus the eternal charade of left competing with right…
               • Incognito …

                 17 June 2023 at 1:45 pm

                 The hint was that you’d provide the link

                 Anyway, here it is: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polis

                 For constructive debate you’d need to clearly lay out your assumptions, which you omitted.

                 And you just keep repeating your initial claim without offering any insights.

                 I see no point in continuing with this charade of yours, but maybe weka has the stomach for it …
2. Dennis Frank 2

   17 June 2023 at 8:19 am

   Yet another UFO exposé: https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/shows/2023/06/newshub-nation-investigative-journalist-ross-coulthart-details-his-interview-with-ufo-whistleblower-david-grusch-whose-claims-are-prompting-congressional-hearing.html

   This week, former intelligence official turned whistleblower David Grusch is alleging the US government has "intact and partially intact craft of non-human origin…" Grusch led the analysis of unexplained anomalous phenomena (UAP) within a US Department of Defense agency during his 14-year career in US intelligence.

   Usually official whistleblowers struggle to make the headlines when competing with stuff like China’s Xi greets ‘old friend’ Bill Gates but

   He's sparked headlines worldwide with his assertion the US has been collecting non-human craft for "decades".

   "When President Joe Biden wanted his presidential daily briefing, which is the intelligence briefing that's prepared for the President. It was David Grush who was involved in putting it together for the National Reconnaissance Office." His claims have prompted the US House of Representatives to announce an investigation into the allegations, with a hearing on the issue expected to be announced in the next few weeks.

   So now its Congress vs the Deep State. More interesting than Trump vs the Deep State? We'll have to wait & see. Declaration of non-conflict of interest: it's true that I tried to give a class talk on UFOs exactly 60 years ago (part-way in, I fainted due to nervousness) but I've never seen a UFO.
   • Belladonna 2.1

     17 June 2023 at 11:00 am

     More to the point – if Grush is so off-beam when it comes to alien spacecraft – what was the quality of advice he was presenting to Biden? I suspect this is the, entirely political, reason for the Congressional enquiry…

     While I would love for alien spacecraft to be true – I find myself entirely unable to believe that the US establishment would have been able to keep this secret for more than 60 years. Other countries, possibly yes – but the US with its …. diversity … of opinion, all of whom have a direct line to media… I don't think so.
     • Dennis Frank 2.1.1

       17 June 2023 at 11:14 am

       Such scepticism is sensible. However, as one who has sporadically examined UFO books for 60 years, I can report that some authors have impressed me. When you get inclusions of eyewitness testimony, legally certified as documentation, it's a level above hearsay. Congress may seek such evidence from officials. Nevertheless, Deep State operatives aren't likely to comply…
       • Belladonna 2.1.1.1

         17 June 2023 at 11:37 am

         Perhaps less agnostic about the possible existence of UFOs – but the existence of US research facilities with actual alien spacecraft….no.
         • Dennis Frank 2.1.1.1.1

           17 June 2023 at 12:58 pm

           Back in the '90s folks were camping out on the Area 51 fence-line, using telephoto lenses, to try & spot nefarious goings-on. I never did hear of them publicising anything notable.

           The meanies running the base kept their saucers deep within, I guess. There was a trend claiming that stealth fighters derived from alien tech re-engineering. However I haven't heard of them being capable of the sharp 90 degree turns that the saucers used to irritate the US fighter pilots pursuing them.

           Those were cited by the radar operators doing liaison with the fighter pilots as their eyewitness experiences. So you had two different groups in the armed forces validating each other. Understandable that the guys in the hierarchy would take it seriously.

           As a physics grad, I know that such evidence of a lack of momentum defies the laws of physics. Rather than believe others though, I choose the pragmatic option of not believing in something I haven't seen personally.
   • ianmac 2.2

     17 June 2023 at 1:29 pm

     If the Maggas can believe in Trump they can believe anything. Keep an eye on your neighbours for they be aliens.
     • Dennis Frank 2.2.1

       17 June 2023 at 1:33 pm

       My neighbour on one side & I get on real well. He's a staunch Labour man from way back but we've had political conversations with no discord since I moved back here (NP) 6.5 years ago. However those on the other side are definitely peculiar…
3. aj 3

   17 June 2023 at 8:40 am

   Yet another UFO exposé

   I'm with this guy.

   Skeptic: Whistleblower claim on UFOs isn't 'accurate'
4. PsyclingLeft.Always 4

   17 June 2023 at 9:42 am

   An expert on landslides and natural hazards warns much of New Zealand may become "uninsurable" in the future.

   The storm that triggered a massive slip in Lower Hutt last winter and forced the evacuation of three cliff-top properties was a shock to residents – but not the council.

   Only the year before, it paid $35,500 (plus GST) to engineering consultancy WSP for an analysis of unstable slopes across the city, including Eastern Hutt Road.

   That report – obtained under the Official Information Act – refers to previous studies dating back to 1977.

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/492135/new-zealand-faces-uninsurable-future-unless-planning-system-overhauled-expert

   Well…uninsurable…is coming. And that Council knowing…(since 1977?) IMO pretty much par for Councils throughout NZ. They know stuff..but..for whatever reasons…sit on or otherwise bury/ignore.

   All the mass developments….concrete over waterways, drain wetlands, etc; etc; are now coming home.

   Although….History, aye ! And those who ignore….

   1979 Abbotsford landslip

   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_Abbotsford_landslip

   IMO…a solution to some of it

   The more hard surfaces we build, the more stormwater we need to drain. Here’s how we can future-proof our urban design as climate change bites.

   https://thespinoff.co.nz/science/31-01-2023/stormwater-reform-wont-be-enough-we-need-a-sponge-city-to-avoid-future-disasters
   • Mike the Lefty 4.1

     17 June 2023 at 10:21 am

     We can always take the National Party preferred option of simply gobbling up more prime agricultural land and turning it into yuppie housing estates and not worry about unimportant things like transport and storm water.
     • PsyclingLeft.Always 4.1.1

       17 June 2023 at 10:29 am

       Hi. Yep everyone..will have to pay for the shortsighted me ! me ! mindset. Even those Nact voters. We really must prevent them getting control of NZ again. Any of the positive movements (admit some slow…) ..will be trashed.

       Back to the 90's. .
   • tWiggle 4.2

     17 June 2023 at 12:53 pm

     I remember talking years ago with a GNS researcher: they had mapped potential slip sites in Wgtn and Hutt, and said slips were a big potential hazard in many places.

     GNS do have this NZ landslide database map resource.
5. PsyclingLeft.Always 5

   17 June 2023 at 10:37 am

   Here something I remembered…anyone know where it ended up?

   Arable farmers here are considering planting more milling wheat this autumn to help combat global shortages.

   Hurst said growers would be able to switch from growing feed grains to milling wheat.

   "The problem with switching is we don't want to create shortages on the other side but the preference is to feed people rather than the livestock sector – these are things we need to work out."

   About 70 percent of the wheat used in flour production in New Zealand is imported, mostly from Australia.

   That was due to freight costs. Hurst said.

   "Basically, we grow 100 percent of the milling wheat grown for the South Island, the main market is in North Island so we need to work on the infrastructure to transport it up there and efficient manner because It's cheaper to bring wheat from Australia to Auckland as opposed from Canterbury to Auckland, that's the problem."

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/country/463536/new-zealand-farmers-consider-planting-more-milling-wheat-in-face-of-global-shortage

   Well..feeding people rather than stock. Thats good. Importing from Australia cheaper !? Why…cant we transport it on Rail? The Rail that has been marginalised…by the old neolib "labour" and national govts.

   IMO defies belief that we cant do this in NZ. NZ needs Rail.
   • PsyclingLeft.Always 5.1

     17 June 2023 at 10:50 am

     There is this….

     Arable production includes wheat, barley and maize for humans and animals to eat and seeds for sowing.

     Last year those farmers produced crops worth $1 billion and production and sales from the entire sector, including milling and further production, were worth $2b while more than 7500 people were employed.

     The Arable Food Industry Council secretary Thomas Chin said arable producers flew below the radar but were vitally important to New Zealand's economy, both locally and for exports.

     https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/country/472525/arable-sector-buoyed-by-30-percent-lift-in-production-in-three-years

     Combine harvest : ) with RegenAg…NZ can surely do better than planting pine trees to offset climate polluters ? IMO.
   • Belladonna 5.2

     17 June 2023 at 11:03 am

     Importing from Australia cheaper !? Why…cant we transport it on Rail? The Rail that has been marginalised…by the old neolib "labour" and national govts.

     Shipping, not rail. The grain is shipped from Australia.

     You'd need to look at coastal shipping from Canterbury to Auckland to be comparable. Rail is not a great solution – especially with the Cook Strait in the way…..
     • PsyclingLeft.Always 5.2.1

       17 June 2023 at 11:39 am

       Yes..of course it is shipped from Australia. I did link after all…

       NZ needs much less Auckland-centric..and more whole NZ.

       IE NZ Regional.

       For years..(some on the Standard : ) I have advocated for a Combined Transport approach in NZ. With…many links : )

       Of course Coastal ship. Good you see that ! And Rail. Needed in NZ.
     • Roy Cartland 5.2.2

       17 June 2023 at 1:30 pm

       I dunno about shipping instead of rail. Shipping (on fuel) is less efficient, due to water being horribly friction-less compared to hard metal rails. Buses too, incidentally.

       Wind shipping though? Let's do it.
       • Belladonna 5.2.2.1

         17 June 2023 at 2:56 pm

         I'm not sure where you're getting the figures about sea freight being more expensive than rail.

         This is an Australian perspective (with some cost savings due to shipping patterns) – but there's nothing about rail being inherently cheaper.

         https://freightcontroller.com.au/coastal-container-shipping-how-does-it-compare-to-rail-and-road/

         The main disadvantage with sea freight is time – it's just slower. But for bulk goods in a regular pipeline – that's not necessarily a disadvantage.

         And here's a general article comparing the various kinds of freight moving from an emissions, as well as a cost perspective

         Even so, there’s a reason all this stuff travels by boat. Aside from being the cheapest mode, it’s also the most carbon-efficient method of shipping: A big ship will emit about 0.4 ounces of carbon dioxide to transport 2 tons of cargo 1 mile. That’s roughly half as much as a train, one-fifth as much as a truck and nearly a fiftieth of what an airplane would emit to accomplish the same task.

         https://www.greenbiz.com/article/future-freight-more-shipping-less-emissions
         • Roy Cartland 5.2.2.1.1

           17 June 2023 at 4:32 pm

           Sorry not cheaper, but efficient in terms of using less fuel take the cargo.
           • Belladonna 5.2.2.1.1.1

             17 June 2023 at 7:12 pm

             Do you have a source for this statement?

             It doesn't seem to match up with any of the sources I've seen. Sea/water freight is cheaper and lower carbon emission than any other mode of transport.

             The reasons not to use it are timeliness (it takes longer) and size of shipments. [As well, obviously, only being suitable for shipping to ports]

             But for bulk cargo it's the transit method of choice.

             This doc is somewhat dated (2012) – but seems to show that it's the same in NZ as for the rest of the world

             https://www.nzta.govt.nz/assets/resources/research/reports/497/docs/497.pdf

             When considering the maximum number of containers that can be transported by each transport mode (ie 550 for coastal shipping, 40 for rail, and 1 for road), the maritime mode is shown to be slightly more efficient in terms of fuel consumption and CO2 emissions than the rail mode, and markedly better than the road mode. In fact, both maritime and rail modes are about twice as efficient as the road mode.

             For the approximately 1500km journey from Auckland to Dunedin, the ratio of costs in transporting a 20ft container was 1 (sea):1.7 (rail):2.8 (road).

             Of the three transport modes investigated, coastal shipping appears to be a very cost-efficient and environmentally acceptable means of transporting containerised freight between the North and South Islands.

             It also makes it clear that you have to use around 14 trains to equal one cargo ship (the ratio is a lot higher for the big super-size cargo ships).
   • pat 5.3

     17 June 2023 at 11:21 am

     We would need to substantially increase production and we would also carry the risk of sourcing our supply from (largely) one region…perhaps somewhat risky in an environment of increasing climate extremes.

     https://www.farmersweekly.co.nz/technology/canterbury-plains-could-lead-the-way-in-wheat-production/#:~:text=But%20surprisingly%2C%20even%20though%20we,Arable%20Research%20(FAR)%20said.
     • PsyclingLeft.Always 5.3.1

       17 June 2023 at 11:32 am

       Hi. I didnt intend it to be an "eggs in one basket" ..case ? (and those eggs are a whole other problem ! ) Thats why i also include RegenAg. Because of Climate Change…which Nact would deny…and set that denial in place forever..if they get back.

       There are enough people incl so many Experts ..that are telling us all.. we need to change. More dairy, and Pine-plot Climate pollution offset.. is no way forward.
       • pat 5.3.1.1

         17 June 2023 at 11:43 am

         The comment was to demonstrate that transport is not the only issue….we were self sufficient in milling flour decades ago when the population was half what it is now….and the suitable land area hasnt increased.
         • PsyclingLeft.Always 5.3.1.1.1

           17 June 2023 at 11:54 am

           Ah, ok thanks for clarification of your thought. And of course..times, process and the Climate ! have all changed hugely. Why we should be seriously (the writing is on.. the everywhere) looking at Alternatives. RegenAg, Other Crops, et al…Because the way we are going..aint going to end well.

           Nact would embed NZ in Climate denial.
6. Patricia Bremner 6

   17 June 2023 at 12:30 pm

   PLA,with their mantra of "Let the market decide" they will allow eggs of all types again imo.

   It will be "We have to keep things affordable" even as they push the costs onto the future generations, in terms of poor product and health.

   "Roads of National Importance" a signal to International Oil, "We are still buying" imo

   They are quite aggressive with Act at their back.
7. PsyclingLeft.Always 7

   17 June 2023 at 1:12 pm

   Hi Patricia.at # 6. With some humour ( sometimes the only way ! ) you could look at "eggs of all types" and include head egg (egg head?) Luxon : ) .

   Anyway..back to it. Yes Nact would put a stop to nearly, if not all , of Labour and Green positive movement for NZ.

   Nact.Tax cuts for the rich. And Climate denial. Well that about covers them.

   I am impressed with the Greens new way Forward

   https://thestandard.org.nz/greens-announce-income-guarantee-and-wealth-tax-policy/

   For sure, I hope it gets some of those….who Never Vote…to get off their arse and actually do something .

   And, keep up the good fight Patricia ! : )
   • Patricia Bremner 7.1

     17 June 2023 at 9:15 pm

     100%
8. ianmac 8

   17 June 2023 at 1:26 pm

   Well said Foxy:

   Talbot Mills Poll out:

   Lbour 36%

   National 35%

   Act 14%

   Greens 12%

   TPM 3%

   Luxon earned his lowest personal polling this week. Can't find the figures.
   • Dennis Frank 8.1

     17 June 2023 at 1:38 pm

     That totals 100%. So NZF &TOP didn't register?? Seems weird. What about all the other minor parties? Perhaps the pollsters used an arbitrary cut-off?
     • Anne 8.1.1

       17 June 2023 at 1:55 pm

       Rounded off percentages? Suggests their share came to less than 1%.
       • Dennis Frank 8.1.1.1

         17 June 2023 at 2:08 pm

         Well if NZF polling has dropped below 1% that would be big political news. I smell a rat somewhere in this report!
         • Belladonna 8.1.1.1.1

           17 June 2023 at 3:04 pm

           I agree. The rough polling of the minnow parties in the last few polls has been: NZF 2-4%; Top 1-2%; NCP 1%

           I wonder if this poll only offered the 4 main parties and TPM as options?

           It does annoy me when clients of polling companies release the data without the accompanying info about what the questions were, and any limitations on polling. It makes a significant difference in some cases.
         • Bearded Git 8.1.1.1.2

           17 June 2023 at 3:52 pm

           It seems obvious to me. Any party that was not going to get seats either through not getting 5% or through not winning an electorate seat has been left out.

           Left 51%

           Right 49%

           Trebles all round!
         • LibertyBelle 8.1.1.1.3

           17 June 2023 at 5:00 pm

           Previous TM polls seem to have been covered by media about a week after the end of the polling period. There is no current media coverage of the poll Ian refers to, not a whisper, so it will be interesting to see if he comes back with a source. TM do Labours internal polling, so he may have access via the LP?
           • observer 8.1.1.1.3.1

             17 June 2023 at 5:20 pm

             Not hard to find.

             Google "Talbot Mills". Include a setting like "last 24 hours" or most recent. Several results there.

             The media coverage you describe as "not a whisper" is mentioned too.

             e.g.

             https://twitter.com/FoxyLustyGrover/status/1669863013636272128
             • Belladonna …

               17 June 2023 at 5:42 pm

               Making it clear that it's been leaked, rather than released to the media.
             • LibertyBelle …

               17 June 2023 at 6:36 pm

               Thanks Observer. I’ve tried the search criteria you suggested, and don’t get the Twitter thread. I do get the Herald link, but it’s behind a paywall, so not much use unless you’re a subscriber.
   • alwyn 8.2

     17 June 2023 at 2:15 pm

     Where did you get this from? I can't find anything when I google it.
     • Belladonna 8.2.1

       17 June 2023 at 2:43 pm

       AFICS Talbot Mills don't 'release' their actual polling. It's privately commissioned, and the 'corporate' which commissioned it, may release the data.

       Here's the news report on the last one which was released to media

       https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/labour-drops-in-latest-talbot-mills-poll-left-and-right-neck-and-neck/FYBHPOCAVRFPNPAS5FP7DYCGUY/
   • Patricia Bremner 8.3

     17 June 2023 at 4:27 pm

     Made my day ianmac. Especially the overall gain by Labour and the Greens.

     Belladonna that was April May.
     • Belladonna 8.3.1

       17 June 2023 at 4:51 pm

       Yes, that's why I said "Here's the news report on the last one which was released to media"
   • AB 8.4

     17 June 2023 at 5:46 pm

     Setting aside the oddity of other minor parties not being counted – this poll might explain the latest pronouncements of Matthew Hooton. My guess is that Hooton thinks Luxon is such an empty suit, that mid-30's in percentage terms in his limit. Hooton therefore aims to persuade centrist, mildly leftish liberals from Labour over to ACT as the best way of ensuring a right-wing government. That's a move that many of them in my experience do not find so hard after all. They are the sort of people who have convinced themselves that they are not really ideological at all, but are simply interested in 'solutions'. Hooton may be malevolent, but he's not dumb.
     • LibertyBelle 8.4.1

       17 June 2023 at 6:45 pm

       “That's a move that many of them in my experience do not find so hard after all. “

       I agree.

       “.,.people who have convinced themselves that they are not really ideological at all, but are simply interested in 'solutions'. “

       They may also be tired of the old binary of national v labour. And/or they want to express some level of reactionary vote, but no longer find appeal in NZF?
   • Belladonna 8.5

     18 June 2023 at 11:58 am

     Andrea Vance has a different take on what appears to be the Talbot Mills poll figures:

     The latest corporate polling from Labour’s internal pollsters has the party up 3 points to 36%; National down 1 to 35%; ACT up to 11% and the Greens down 2 points to 7%.

     https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/132345297/want-to-know-who-is-going-to-win-the-election-watch-these-seats

     Of course, that's not 'official' either.

     Really, brings point to the fact that leaked polls aren't worth the paper they're written on (or the electrons required to bring them to the screen).

     If the 'corporate' who commissioned the polls is going to regularly leak them (or versions of them), then they should have the courage of their convictions and just publish the result.
     • Dennis Frank 8.5.1

       18 June 2023 at 12:10 pm

       Maybe not corporate leaking by intent. Maybe employees or contractors doing their own thing. Gossip online. I agree re the anecdotal nature of the twittering.
9. alwyn 9

   17 June 2023 at 6:19 pm

   The current policy of not sending people to prison certainly seems to be having an effect.

   I'm not sure that repeated rape offenses is only worth home detention though when the justification is that the offender, at least according to his lawyer, might not like prison.

   "Stephen Hembrow asked the judge not to send his client to prison as he would find it “extraordinarily difficult”, stating any sentence imposed will be “crushing” for him."

   https://www.odt.co.nz/star-news/star-christchurch/man-who-raped-young-girl-given-home-detention
   • LibertyBelle 9.1

     17 June 2023 at 6:56 pm

     It could have gotten even worse:

     https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/06/hundreds-of-criminals-could-have-avoided-jail-under-justice-and-corrections-proposal.html

     ”The policy was on its way to Cabinet to be considered but, when Allan took over the portfolio, she threw it on the policy bonfire and on Friday threw her predecessors under the bus.

     "This is a proposal that was carried through by previous ministers. It started under Andrew Little and I inherited it after Kris Faafoi."
   • ianmac 9.2

     17 June 2023 at 9:54 pm

     They hinted that the offender had serious mental issues and may be intellectually handicapped. If so prison would be very unsuitable but his crimes are serious so one would hope that he would be helped in other ways.
     • LibertyBelle 9.2.1

       17 June 2023 at 10:31 pm

       This piece of shit sexually abused a young girl for years, and he gets to go home with an ankle bracelet. I hope the victim gets the help to deal with not only his offending, but this piss poor excuse for a sentence.
10. Patricia Bremner 10

    17 June 2023 at 9:03 pm

    Are you out there Robert. You are missed.

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