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6:00 am, December 20th, 2023 - 32 comments
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The latest Roy Morgan has National with more votes than Labour the Greens and the other party combined. Thoughts.
[TheStandard: A moderator moved this comment to Open Mike as being off topic or irrelevant in the post it was made in. Be more careful in future.]
Data is a month old before the NAF gov did anything
Gosman failed to mention that…
Photos from the wedding & honeymoon to offset the sick nauseating feeling today from the Mother of All Mini-Budgets. Timing is everything.
Looks like all the "missteps" the government has made has actually solidified their support among the wider public.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/roy-morgan-nz-election-november-2023
Yeah, coz they're getting things done!
Or rather, undone.
It's action stations for the NACTFirst Government and they're knocking things down all over the park like the All Blacks do! Up the Wahs!
We New Zealanders love that sort of stuff.
More like the ugly stepsister of all budgets…
Dimwit Gosman.
The coalition Govt. deal was signed 24th November. Roy Morgan wasted their time conducting a poll in November. Course it was going to reveal no real changes. We were in no mans land for six weeks – nothing happened.
One month later… different story. Those who fell for the NAct lines are wondering what they have done. More fool them.
LOL! There was a massive change in the Poll since the election. In case you missed it the Center Right parties increased their lead over the left wing by over 10%. That is a huge swing in favour of them. Seems like most people like what they see of the new government.
I suspect Anne is a Labour Party stalwart who will always see roses, even in the most dire circumstances. If this is the general view that pervades the Labour machine, they will be in opposition a very long time indeed.
Oh look, an astro-turfer.
All you have told us is that you have not been around here very long.
LOL! If the RM poll indicates "a massive change" since the election, then the more recent Curia poll indicates a massively “huge swing” since the RM poll.
Interestingly (?), RM has the TOP vote increasing by ~58% (2.22 –> 3.5%)!
Time will tell if any apparent voter remorse is real, or margin of error stuff.
Party vote change (Curia, 3 – 5 December) compared to 2023 election results:
Nat: – 0.5%
Lab: +2%
Grn: – 1%
Act: – 2.5%
Nzf: +2%
Tpm: +1.5%
A 3.5% decrease in the lead of our coalition government parties – go figure.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election
Where did you get your information from Gosman?
According to Wikipedia the parties of the right are down about 2% and the parties of the left up about 3% since the election.
That doesn't equate your claim of the centre right parties increasing their lead by over 10%.
Thomas Coughlin has done a great job of analysing the "fiscal cliffs" which Willis will hammer today to justify her claims. Thomas has gone through the last Budget line by line and comes up with no support for her claims. Nick Rockwell quoted Thomas:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/moment-of-truth-for-nicola-willis-as-she-faces-first-budget-test/JH5Y5FMHUFD7VGLRBIVD72EDNY/
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa44b424a-6656-4f15-a877-752738aaaeb4_524x248.png?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Roblogic posted a link yesterday that should be required viewing for the Labour Party (and all voters) as they review why they were so badly defeated at the last election and use as the basis of any attempt to refresh the party…..if they cannot grasp and sell the message so succinctly expressed in the linked discussion then they are in the wrong job.
Cheers Pat. It's a great talk with Gary Stephenson of @garyseconomics. Here's a snippet from his website:
This theory is simply, too much wealth inequality, and all the pernicious effects downstream of it.
The volcano has erupted in Iceland; thankfully no lives lost so far (BBC website has photographs).
A reminder that we humans are just another species on the planet, wholly subject to the whim of Nature.
Yes, HT2, human tenure here is tenuous. The planet survived for billions of years without us, and will continue so, until Sol goes nova……
Which is why we should be putting the environment first, and not worry so much about the Left vs Right debate constantly – maybe one day this country will grow up, but probably not in my lifetime, sadly.
So the Saudi Kingdom is actually scum, oh wait they are dear leaders best friend.
Caught out lying again, and trying to kill us all.
Go figure.
A curriculum overseen by the NZ Initiative and a mob that doesn’t include any Māori educators.
/
@RichardHills_
Chair of the education advisory group rewriting the NZ curriculum has already written his plans for education as part of the NZ Initiative here are some of the ideas. The forward is written by Elizabeth Rata who’s also on the advisory committee. PDF here: https://nzinitiative.org.nz/reports-and-me
https://twitter.com/RichardHills_/status/1737191637590380601
https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/first-steps-100-day-plan-education-removing-distractions-and-teaching-basics-brilliantly
Back to the 1890's!
Finland's education system works.They have hugely successful outcomes, with a philosophy thats the polar opposite of the NZ Initiative's , (which is stubbornly dumb!!)
Why aren't we looking to Finland's strategies?
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/why-are-finlands-schools-successful-49859555/
Should be foreword , not forward
At any rate it's all very fucking depressing.
I feel so sorry for the kids
A Ministerial Advisory Group with at least two individuals who are intellectually and ideologically compromised. Hopefully, some of the other members are of high enough calibre to balance their strong bias.
"The forward is written by Elizabeth Rata who’s also on the advisory committee."
Elizabeth Rata? If she's involved, it's guaranteed to be a disaster. She had one true fan, though: poor old Gordon MacLauchlan (R.I.P.) forlornly championed her ten years ago on one of his less impressive outings on RNZ's light chat show….
https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-07062013/#comment-644796
The Speaker apologises to Chris Hipkins at opening of Question Time.
Your such a tease??
During yesterday's Question Time, Luxon brought up the issue of his wife's ownership of the Tesla. Brownlee chastised Hipkins for bringing family members of an MP into the debate. He didn't. The next day, Brownlee apologised. I respected that.
Serious humble pie good on the big guy
To Robert Guyton at 7.1.1 : I was very pleased to see that. It was certainly Luxon who ( probably) spoke without thinking.
This piece is on the media is thought provoking:
https://www.honest-broker.com/p/in-2024-the-tension-between-macroculture
This bit I found very interesting:
"…I never get asked a single question about Substack from mainstream media people (although they are always asking me to contribute). They obviously believe that they have nothing to learn from the microculture.
And it’s not just my personal experience. Look at the hirings:
This is sheer idiocy. It’s Einstein’s definition of insanity.
At this juncture in history, you must fill openings in stagnant old media by hiring people who understand the rapidly growing new media. The data is clear on this—if you want to grow, you need to learn from podcasts, YouTube channels, Substack, Bandcamp, Patreon, and all the other success stories.
But it’s not happening. The macroculture is frozen. It has forgotten how to maneuver. It definitely has forgotten how to learn…"
You get much the same in the NZ MSM – it’s a closed shop. A merry-go-round of failure where Tova goes from TV3 to a new radio show to TVNZ and nothing improves, ratings keep falling; Where RNZ gets it’s new news boss from the the failing TV3, and wonders why id audience decline continues. Where MSM journalists frequent share beds with senior media executives and political operatives and there is a revolving door between lobbying firms, right wing think tanks, PR, political spin, and the legacy media organisations.
A closed shop of dead thinking befitting an increasingly zombie media..