Open mike 25/11/2022

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, November 25th, 2022 - 93 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:


Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

93 comments on “Open mike 25/11/2022 ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Jenny are we there yet 1
    25 November 2022 at 7:14 am

    It was once legal for a man to beat his wife.

    It was only recently that we made it illegal for parents to beat their children.

    Youth are disempowered in many ways

    Voting empowers

    We are afraid of empowering young people, especially girls

    For a reason

    Climate activist Greta Thunberg aged 15 – Launched 'School Strike for the Climate' a movement that became global.

    Education activist Malala Yousafzai aged 15 – Survived attempted assassination by the Taliban for demanding education for girls.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-24379018

    Child bride activist Nada Al Ahdal aged 11 – Escaped child marriage after making a harrowing two minute video appealing against her forced child marriage that went viral on you tube. Now leads an international movement against child marriage.

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/arab-showcase/2022/11/24/the-yemeni-child-bride-activist-leading-the-fight-against-the-scourge-of-early-marriage/

    • Belladonna 1.1
      25 November 2022 at 9:30 am

      However, voting – AFAIK – at 16 isn't legal in any of the countries those teens come from.

      Your point seems to be demonstrating that it is perfectly possible and valid for teens to be activists – and potentially change their societies – without being eligible to vote.

      • Robert Guyton 1.1.1
        25 November 2022 at 10:26 am

        Likewise, it would be perfectly possible for women everywhere to be activists – and potentially change their societies -without being eligible to vote.

        • Jenny are we there yet 1.1.1.1
          25 November 2022 at 12:49 pm

          "Your point seems to be demonstrating that it is perfectly possible and valid for teens to be activists – and potentially change their societies – without being eligible to vote." Belladonna

          Many of the same Right Wing talking points being trotted out against enfranchising young people, are a retread of similar talking points that were argued against extending the franchise to women.

          In fact you could extend these same right wing anti-democratic arguments to everyone.

          If the franchise was removed from everyone, people could still potentially change their societies – without being eligible to vote.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tolpuddle_Martyrs

        • Belladonna 1.1.1.2
          25 November 2022 at 4:55 pm

          Not really. Although there are plenty of examples both from our own history, and current events elsewhere, which actually do demonstrate that being eligible to vote is not essential for activism.

          The difference between sex and age as criteria for voting, is, that one never changes [or, at least absent extensive surgical intervention, doesn't change], while the other is simply a matter of time.

          Waiting a couple of years to exercise your right to vote doesn't appear to be a major issue.

          And, of course, shifting the voting age, will simply create the same sense of dis-enfranchisement from the younger cohort of voters.

      • Jenny are we there yet 1.1.2
        25 November 2022 at 3:23 pm

        You earlier argued that the age of franchise is arbitrary.

        “Any voting age is an arbitrary cut-off point – with no way to justify it…” Belladonna
        .https://thestandard.org.nz/the-politics-of-the-voting-age-change/#comment-1922761

        Given the examples above I would argue that it not be arbitrary. That the age of franchise should be set is where it is determined that social awareness and political activism generally begins.

        The ability to be able to read and write and use and interact through social media might be another non-arbitrary point of reference to determine the age of franchise.

        “Social media saved my life,” Nada Al Ahdal

        Through the use of social medial Nada Al Ahdal escaped two wedding pacts arranged by her parents. and has since pledged to protect others from being sold 'like sheep'

        She forced to sign a document banning comments about child marriage in the press or on social media.

        "…..the head of the school said that I, being famous for showing social media about child marriage, would brainwash the other girls. She told me to study at home but I refused,” Nada Al Ahdal


        • Belladonna 1.1.2.1
          25 November 2022 at 5:04 pm

          Yes it is arbitrary. Can you point to any actual hard evidence that 16 is a more valid age than 18 (or for that matter 14)?

          If you want to argue for the use of social media as a qualifying factor – then you would need to be open to 12-year-olds – and even younger – as voters. Plenty of them are very active social media users.

          Your criteria is also arbitrary.

          "That the age of franchise should be set is where it is determined that social awareness and political activism generally begins."

          Who decides? I can assure you, that the majority of kids in my teens school, even at the senior levels are *not* particularly politically active or even politically aware. The exceptions are the outliers that we see in the media. Equally, I know of much younger children who have made moral or ethical life choices (to be vegetarian, for example), and are deeply aware of the political implications of their choice.

          Your suggested additional qualifier of use of social media is also arbitrary. How much use qualifies? Do you have to be active in social areas – or does posting TikTok videos count? Who gets to judge?

          Just as an aside, that criteria would also drop off voters at the other end – not many people over 70 (yes, there are some) – who are active social media users. And there are a tranche of people who deliberately choose not to engage on social media at all – should they be disenfranchised also?

  2. weka 2
    25 November 2022 at 8:47 am

    Very good potted history on why we are in the situation we are with crime and poverty. A breath of fresh air cutting through all the tough on crime rhetoric

    Ok, this might need a thread.
    When Jenny Shipley rolled Bolger and became our first female PM, she took Ruth Richardson to her bosom (metaphorically, I assume) and began a spiteful reign of terror over the poor, solo parents and beneficiaries…

    https://twitter.com/k_t_pi/status/1595692454686388224

    • Ad 2.1
      25 November 2022 at 9:00 am

      If long term poverty was a crime-driver we'd see burglaries up over a decade, and ramraids of supermarkets. We never have.

      Until COVID all crime was down and staying down.

      Ramraiders are targeting highly taxed pleasure shops: tobacco, vapes and alcohol.

      Crime especially all kinds of assault is still down. It needs its own post but there is zero causality to the 1990s structural adjustment.

      • Belladonna 2.1.1
        25 November 2022 at 9:36 am

        I'd query the targeting. In our local area – it's not only – or even predominantly – highly taxed pleasure shops which are being targeted – it's just ordinary run-of-the-mill ones – where, in many cases, they've taken only minor amounts of money and/or goods – while causing tens-of-thousands-of-dollars worth of damage.

        The driver appears to be the thrill of destruction, combined with the excitement of notoriety (TikTok, etc.)

        While I can understand (though not approve of) stealing vapes, alcohol and cigarettes – or even high-end fashion goods; there is no rational excuse for targeting the local Malaysian cafe, Subway franchise, or stationery shop (doesn't sell vapes or cigarettes).

        • Ad 2.1.1.1
          25 November 2022 at 10:01 am

          If I get a couple of hours on the weekend I'll do a post on crime.

          I'm not an expert on it but the graphed public reports are solid and far and away beat the anecdotes and bleed-lead cycles.

          • Cricklewood 2.1.1.1.1
            25 November 2022 at 10:39 am

            Be interesting (if data makes it possible) to see if big excise tax increases correlate with a rise in ram raid type crime targeting Tobacco and Alcohol.

          • Anker 2.1.1.1.2
            25 November 2022 at 1:39 pm

            https://dunedinstudy.otago.ac.nz/files/1571970023782.pdf

            Ad, I would recomend looking at this article from the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Study. It links childhood self control (or its absence) to all sorts of negative life outcomes, including crime. Poor self control at three years of age predicts these outcomes even when controlled for socio economic status and IQ.

            This in my opinion should be the basis for how to bring the crime rate down.

            • Ad 2.1.1.1.2.1
              25 November 2022 at 2:52 pm

              "childhood self-control is signficantly correlated with adult self-control but shows much more room for change. The fact that a child with low self-control can still become an adult with high self-control indicates that self-control may be a more malleable and teachable characteristic than IQ. Scores are normalized around a mean of 0"

              I'd be loathe to ascribe any kind of single-factor causal relationship towards criminal conviction records. Certainly be surprised if the Dunedin study did that.

              Doesn't account for the 2021-22 spike in ram raids, gun warfare, and school delinquency. But it does correlate really well with COVID and the tobacco and alcohol excise taxes going up by a big jump two budgets ago.

              • Anker …
                25 November 2022 at 3:31 pm
                • That would be something you would need to discuss with the researchers of the Dunedin study Ad.
                • I think it is hopeful that the authors acknowledge self control is malleable. It is something that can be taught, but it needs to be done early.
                • The Dunedin study is outstanding for all sorts of reasons including it being prospective and also having such a high retention rate.
                • Their self control finding is gold. A single casual factor that is found across a range of negative outcomes. I have some friends who are early childhood teachers and they haven’t heard of this study or it’s outcomes. This seems like a missed opportunity to me
                • No Swordfish, no ideological CRT or squeals of “its all colonisation. Just good science. These scientists found an outcome they weren’t expecting
                • RedLogix …
                  26 November 2022 at 11:17 am

                  We have known the importance of this Dunedin study for ages. Hell I think I commented on it in detail here years back. From memory they could by the age of 3 categorise children into five social styles with about 7% of children in a 'aggressive and disruptive' group who – we at the highest risk of going on to very poor outcomes with violence and crime.

                  The most vital stage of their lives is between age 4 – 7yrs old when they have the chance to learn how to moderate they behaviour in rough and tumble play with other children and especially their fathers. This is how they learn the boundaries of what is a good game and what is hurtful or out of bounds. They don't learn from being lectured or moralised to – they learn from the physical experience of play. They are typically very kinetic, energetic and physical kids, and if they learn this moderating ability at this age will grow into fine capable adults.

                  But if they lacked positively engaged fathers, siblings and others they could literally bounce off – or worse if they encountered sustained abuse of any form – their teenage and adult outcomes were almost certain to be terrible.

                  • Molly …
                    27 November 2022 at 9:15 am

                    I'd add a further point:

                    Requiring such young children (often boys, with tremendous amounts of physical energy) to conform to the confined and restrained behaviour expected in a classroom environment actively fails them.

                    Not only do they not have that level of self-management, they often gain a reputation for disruption that is difficult to leave behind.

            • swordfish 2.1.1.1.2.2
              25 November 2022 at 3:01 pm

              .

              Whoaaaaa there !!!, affluent Pakeha Woke dogmatists have assured me the neighbourhood terrorism being perpetrated by violent, out-of-control anti-socials indiscriminately dumped in Kainga Ora housing is all down to "Post Colonial Traumatic Stress Disorder"

              (Admittedly the well-to-do power-wielding Critical Theory Cult members who angrily demand we all accept this theory without demur courageously ensure they're living as far away as possible from the Nightmare situations they've cheerfully facilitated … though we should, of course, bear in mind that they possess “uniquely-refined moral sensibilities”)

              • Anker …
                25 November 2022 at 6:43 pm

                "Courageously ensure they're living as far away as possible from the Nightmare situations"

                Yes but interestingly enough when the parliament protestors littered their work environment the howls of protest from the parliamentarians and their workforce couldn't have been louder about the "river of filth!' Where were their cries of "Post Colonial Traumatic Stress Disorder", when they called for the army and Costers force to remove these scum? And on the last day, when it was mainly Maori men left rioting in the streets of Wellington, where were the defenders of those anti social Kainga Ora tennants? Somehow the PCTSD diagnosis didn't apply then

            • swordfish 2.1.1.1.2.3
              26 November 2022 at 10:03 pm

              .

              Yeah, you are quite right, Anker … what the Dunedin study found is well-established in the international literature … after the age of 4, anti-social children (or to use a technical term: conduct-disordered children) tend to turn into anti-social adolescents who, in turn, become anti-social & criminal adults.

              The literature in Psychology suggests the vast majority of those 2 year olds who are unusually aggressive (most of them male) are reasonably well-socialised / domesticated by the age of 4 (with the intervention of parents, teachers & peers) … and aided, as Redlogix says, by rough & tumble play.

              They've learnt how to regulate their innate aggression.

              But that minority of aggressive, anti-social kids who haven't been properly socialised by 4 tend to be hyper-aggressive for the rest of their lives.

              As adults, they are generally very low in trait Agreeableness & trait Conscientiousness (in terms of Psychology's Big Five Personality Traits) … so they're bordering on Sociopath / Psychopath territory.

              Characterised by Predatory Aggression (low agreeableness) in contrast to those with Paternal Sympathy (high agreeableness)

              Chronically aggressive children, as they become adults, lack empathy, are suspicious, narcissistic & highly self-centered.

              There is a substantial literature on trying to rectify the behaviour of anti-social children after the age of 4 … and the findings suggest it's very difficult. Few interventions are helpful.

              And if these unusually aggressive, anti-social adults (again, largely males) find themselves in the underclass, at the bottom of the social hierarchy (as they so often do), they will seek to achieve status by dominating their immediate environment – their local neighbourhood – through violence & extreme anti-social behaviour … which, of course, points to the nightmare situation dumped on my elderly parents & their neighbours & street … along with hundreds, perhaps thousands of others around New Zealand.

              • Anker …
                26 November 2022 at 10:42 pm

                The article I posted is an interesting read. I am so impressed by the Dunedin Study. Ideology free. Just good science.

                They do say in that article some programmes teaching self control really early on have shown promise, so I feel somewhat encouraged by this. But of course everyone is barking up the wrong tree with this. Marama Davison and the Greens for one.

                The poor self control thing absolutely makes sense to me. They also found it predicted people with gambling problems in their 30s.

                The sad thing is these people with poor self control show very poor parenting skills and so the circle continues (and you have spoken about this with your parents tormenter and their child apeing his behaviour). It is too late for this anti social tennant. Across NZ people like this are making other peoples lives hell. Anti social PD's are deeply problematic. But they are likely beyond help and they should be given the message that their shitty behaviour is not tolerated. This was what was lacking in their upbringing. Good clear boundaries and consequences.

                I know of the OCEAN stuff. It is a great little formula.

                • pat …
                  26 November 2022 at 10:50 pm

                  It outlines the duality of the problem….the solutions for the future anti socials is at odds with the solutions for the current anti socials.

                  We need to stop/slow the creation of future problem while addressing the current

                  • Molly …
                    27 November 2022 at 8:32 am

                    This also applies to the assessment of the problems. We need to be able to clearly determine the factors that may lead to the current behaviour, rather than use past understanding to define the causes.

                    There have been significant societal disruptors over the last two decades, there should be no automatic assumptions regarding causes.

                    • pat …
                      27 November 2022 at 8:34 am

                      Id suggest the problems concerning wider society are self evident even if the causes are not

                    • Molly …
                      27 November 2022 at 9:07 am

                      @pat

                      I agree.

                      When I said problems, I meant problem with assuming causes (admittedly unclear).

                      If causes are incorrectly identified, then solutions may not only be ineffective now, but create issues in the long term.

                      In short: what you said.

                    • pat …
                      27 November 2022 at 9:12 am

                      Meanwhile the problems (existing) must be addressed

                    • Molly …
                      28 November 2022 at 9:41 am

                      @pat.

                      I agree.

                  • Anker …
                    27 November 2022 at 8:17 pm

                    Yes Pat, I agree. What to we do to try and prevent this and if we go by the Dunedin study, it is intervene very, very early as in about 3 years old.

                    I am at a lost to know what to do when people reach adolecences or older. I am not up with the play about what works.

                    • pat …
                      27 November 2022 at 8:44 pm

                      The studies do appear to show that early intervention is critical, however we appear to be opposed to intervention…go figure.

                      As to what to do about those beyond that point Id suggest we can neither afford to excuse the behaviour but neither do we have the resources to provide the comprehensive oversight required.

                      It is a question of scale and we have allowed the problem to become too large….like many of our problems.

                    • Incognito []
                      27 November 2022 at 9:05 pm

                      Nope, scale is not the issue at all and you cannot argue this.

                    • pat …
                      27 November 2022 at 9:07 pm

                      Indeed!….and your basis for that assertion?

                    • Incognito []
                      27 November 2022 at 9:31 pm

                      Your lack of argument in your comment, for starters. You made the claim – the problem cannot be solved or dealt with adequately or even appropriately because it is too large – you argue for it, or not. Are you a fatalist?

                    • pat …
                      27 November 2022 at 9:27 pm

                      8,600 in prison

                      5,800 electronically monitored

                      2,500 501 deportees

                      5,200 in care and protection with OT

                      7,700 listed gang members (not including associates)

                      156,000 children living in poverty

                      How many required to provide wrap around services for this volume of people?

                    • pat …
                      27 November 2022 at 9:46 pm

                      @Incognito

                      ah your sensibilities are upset because you dont wish to acknowledge that there is a problem of scale and resource….this attitude is reminiscent of the 'care in the community" proponents of mental health care….great in theory and absolutely useless in practice due to the complete lack of resource able to be applied and yet the policy was rolled out anyway.

                    • Incognito []
                      27 November 2022 at 10:18 pm

                      Nah, you don’t appreciate the nature and complexity of those societal problems which is why you need to dumb it down to: too big, too hard, can’t do.

                    • pat …
                      27 November 2022 at 10:23 pm

                      Lol…no need to stoop to abuse. Im a little concerned about you incognito, you appear under significant stress of late.

                    • Incognito []
                      28 November 2022 at 8:14 am

                      Except for a bunch of bullet points without commentary that look like they come straight from the National Party Speaking Points Sheet – Executive Summary you have offered nothing, not a single decent argument that’s worthy of debate. Your skin is apparently too thin to point out this inconvenient truth to you. You seem to think that your comments are only read by a couple of commenters on this site, which is why they often lack clarity and explanation and why you tend to resist having to explain yourself in layman terms that are easy to understand for a more general audience. If I didn’t think you couldn’t do any better I’d not even bother trying to tease out a more meaningful comment from you. Your concern for me has been noted.

                    • Anker …
                      28 November 2022 at 9:37 am
                      • Pat your points are completely reasonable and make sense.
                      • I don’t know what the solution is to criminal behaviour once it becomes established. There are likely studies that can guide us.
                      • by lowering the prison population it may be that we are making life hell now for decent people who have to put up with these types in social housing.
                      • What I am pissed off about is that it appears policy makers are not using the Dunedin study to develop interventions.
        • observer 2.1.1.2
          25 November 2022 at 10:21 am

          This is why so much crime "debate" is offering nothing.

          We instantly switch on our fixed settings, our preconceptions, to put new events in a context we understand, which is outdated.

          e.g.

          Long-standing assumption: crims do not want to be seen. Cameras are their enemy. Use CCTV. Makes sense.

          New reality: some (especially young) do want to be seen. Cameras are their friend. Get on Tik-tok. Makes no sense.

          Churning out old reckons from people who grew up before mobile phones is the opinion that dominates the "debate". Not even close to understanding what is going on, because we never imagined doing it.

      • AB 2.1.2
        25 November 2022 at 10:08 am

        there is zero causality to the 1990s structural adjustment

        The "zero" is a big call – "no obvious" might be closer to the mark because there's always the argument to be made about hyper-individualism, loss of empathic community relationships etc. etc. I get though that you are trying to kick people out of helplessly whining about the past and instead thinking about action in the present.

    • Peter 2.2
      25 November 2022 at 10:06 am

      The children of the 'Mother of all Budgets" are with us. They've given birth to another generation who are out and about.

      We tell women to not drink alcohol while pregnant because of, amongst other things, Foetal Alcohol Syndrome.

      Foetal Richardson Syndrome.

      • Patricia Bremner 2.2.1
        25 November 2022 at 11:26 am

        Yes, in the old days Peter it was the children of bath tub gin imbibers, they ended up in Reform Schools or Borstals.

        Now we have the children of Poverty and drink/meth intoxicated by internet algorithms and copycat behaviour. That is why it is about the act not the booty.

      • Ad 2.2.2
        25 November 2022 at 2:54 pm

        Really?

        1991 is 31 years ago.

        The spike we are seeing in truancy, ram raids and gun violence is in the last 2 years.

    • Graeme 2.3
      25 November 2022 at 10:37 am

      We've also just gone through a period in our history where a section of society, led by some political leaders, rebelled against the rule of law and society, saying 'fuck you Society and Government, I'll do what I want to do and not what you tell me, fuck off…'

      It's not surprising that societal engagement rubs off on youth who say ' fuck you, I'll do what I bloody well like and take whatever I like, fuck off..'

      Societal disengagement has become normalised, the kids are only following adult leadership. And having a ball.

      • weka 2.3.1
        25 November 2022 at 11:06 am

        It's one of the reasons why I believe building strong community is an imperative at this point in time, including with people who think differently from us or who we dislike. We can't mend what's happened since the Shipley years unless there is a major political shift, but we can rebuild locally.

      • mauī 2.3.2
        25 November 2022 at 8:39 pm

        People rebelled because among other important things, they had lost personal autonomy over their health, jobs, movement and essentially their lives. This wasn't rebelling against rules just for the hell of it.

        Something tells me that school shutdowns, disrupted education, health requirements to participate in class and in school sports, are going to have a larger detrimental effect on young people. We have let down young people badly in these last few years, isn't the mark of a good society how they treat their young.

    • Anker 2.4
      25 November 2022 at 11:03 am

      https://teara.govt.nz/en/graph/29237/child-homicide-rates-for-maori-and-non-maori

      I stumbled across this graph inadvertantly in the last week or so. Passing a lot of time on line as I recover from Covid (sick for two weeks now!).

      What I found fascinating was that Maori rates of child homicide shot up from 1991 onwards (they had been the same as non Maori up till then). I hadn't heard or seen this figure before (maybe it is generally known). But I think it could do with some unpicking. The obvious conclusion is that the welfare reforms and Rogernomics play a role in this statistic. I would be surprized if there hasn't been some good research methods applied to confirm if this is the case. I realize it fits with what I recall of an ever increasing number of homicide victims that are Maori children.

      Anyone know more about this?

      • weka 2.4.1
        25 November 2022 at 11:11 am

        I don't, but I would also look at whether Māori were disproportionately affected by the mass redundancies in the 80s thanks to ACTLabour (I will guess they were). So many things took at dive at the point, and then National in the 90s just cemented the neolib project in. Mental health, job security, employment conditions, union power, benefit rates, health system, on and on. I don't think younger people can probably appreciate just how massive a societal change it was.

        My mother was a social worker in the 90s and she said it would take generations to recover from what they were doing.

        • Anker 2.4.1.1
          25 November 2022 at 11:26 am

          Weka, agree. It didn't just start with Ruth Richardson

        • Tiger Mountain 2.4.1.2
          25 November 2022 at 11:42 am

          Yes indeed re the generations comment. I worked in South Auckland car industry for 20 years, 70s to early 90s, and the workforce was mainly brown apart from admins and managers, industry deregulated and mostly gone well before end of 90s. Provincial county councils with their own works departments–contracted out, Manufacturing had the pin pulled, including footwear, clothing and textiles. With that unskilled but full time work, there were thousands of associated support workers and suppliers.

          So perhaps Rogernomics greatest shame remains discarding people via macro economic decisions that they had no immediate control over, and then abandoning them. And to rub it in–demonising them as dole bludgers, market rents for state housing and the Richardson MOAB was the final straw. If you want to know who ram raiders are–they are the grand children of Roger and Ruth.

          Economist Brian Easton said in 2018…(full article linked)
          https://e-tangata.co.nz/korero/brian-easton-maori-have-been-trapped-in-a-poverty-cycle/

          “What Rogernomics did, among other things, was to eradicate a lot of jobs. And we know that Māori were affected more than non-Māori. Māori health deteriorated and Māori mortality rose during the Rogernomics era quite against the long term trend. Moreover the Rogernomic policies were deliberately biased against the poor and therefore disproportionally hit Māori.

          So, when we get through that period, what have we got? We’ve got a large, young population — it’s younger than the national average — and it’s an unskilled population. It’s not ready for the high-skilled jobs that are being created in the economy.”

        • Shanreagh 2.4.1.3
          25 November 2022 at 2:14 pm

          I don't, but I would also look at whether Māori were disproportionately affected by the mass redundancies in the 80s thanks to ACTLabour (I will guess they were).

          The redundancies in the late 1980s pulled the 'guts out' of the ability to work for large employers in predominantly Maori communities for labouring type jobs. So Forestry went, MOW local branches went etc etc.

          Local branches for many govt depts went, where these branches were located in Maori areas this meant people had less chance of being able to live locally. With all of the Govt Depts retreating from small town NZ and even small city NZ eg Napier and Gisborne had no branches left in the Govt dept I worked for, all run from Wellington as was Whanganui & Palmerston North.

          In the small town I grew up in it not only destroyed jobs but what I call the Maori middle class, those whose children went away to boarding schools such as Hato Petera, Te Aute, St Stephens, Queen Vic, Hukarere just as their mothers and fathers had or to the same schools that we also went to. Some families schooled their children locally and then sent them to boarding schools in the last two years of secondary school.

          After the 1987 environmental restructuring followed by that of MOW, I think it was MOW that was asked to do a social impact report on the reforms and this was hurriedly pulped/withdrawn (from my recollection) after it was clear that not much good had resulted from these reforms and huge dislocation costing $$$$, careers, loss of retirement savings, and heartbreaking mental and social effects were the main results.

    • Bearded Git 2.5
      25 November 2022 at 10:48 pm

      People forget what a nasty bit of work Shipley is and was.

  3. Poission 3
    25 November 2022 at 10:37 am

    EA has brought out a consultancy paper ,for the management of winter 2023 tight generation periods.

    This is not because demand is behind installed generation capacity (demand is down and will be around 1500 gwh on 2021) it is by the changes in the generation mix,and the high cost imposed by the necessary use of thermal generation for peak loads.

    A key reason for this divergence between available and installed generation capacity relates to the increased role of intermittent generation and the growing cost of gas, coal and carbon emissions.

    https://www.ea.govt.nz/assets/dms-assets/31/Driving-efficient-solutions-to-promote-consumer-interests-through-winter-2023.pdf

    Intermittency from NI wind (over 1 gw) is dependent on near real time forecasting which is constrained to 5 day windows at the 60% probability window,and 1 day at the 90%.

    This is with additional lessening of load,with the closure of Marsden point,and Norsk paper (around 100mw)

    Peak load demand needs to be lessened substantially North of Taupo,for the winter months.

  4. Tiger Mountain 4
    25 November 2022 at 11:16 am

    Where is the workers central labour organisation (NZCTU) today? I checked their FB Together and www, little on the RB OCR hike. The economist is no doubt beavering away, but there should have been heavy fire back on that, and to the Natzos claims about migrant workers on RNZ this morning.

    Really–there is a classic contradiction between the RB and Employers arguments. Unemployment must rise says the RB, where as employers are desperate for more workers via migrant labour and want easing up on entry and residency. Translation–break down the growing workers action for higher wages, and use cheaper imported labour. NZ National have said that migrant workers should not be paid the median wage.

    To paraphrase Marx… “wage rises generally happen in the track of previous price rises” – it’s a catch-up response, not due to ‘excessive’ and unrealistic demands for higher wages by workers. Second, it is not wage rises that cause rising inflation. Many other things affect price changes, Marx argued: namely “the amount of production (growth rates), the productive powers of labour (productivity growth), the value of money (money supply growth), fluctuations of market prices which happens constantly anyway, and “different phases of the industrial cycle” (boom or slump).

    The claim that there is a wage-price spiral and that wage rises cause price rises is an ideological smokescreen to protect profitability.

    • Craig H 4.1
      25 November 2022 at 11:45 am

      It takes time to write something decent and also to get it published but I'm sure it's a high priority for CTU.

      The November Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) has some quite good commentary on wages from page 33 including how different Stats NZ wage measures apply to different ways of obtaining pay rises. RBNZ agree with you and Marx that wages usually catch up to CPI and are forecasting that. What they are trying to avoid isn't the catch-up to CPI in and of itself, it's going too far past that (whatever that looks like), "forcing" prices up which in turn forces wages up more etc.

  5. Peter 5
    25 November 2022 at 12:05 pm

    Recently I commented on David Seymour using the Ellerslie jeweller's store robbery for publicity. He even stood in Parliament to announce he'd been there.

    I considered posting yesterday that he'd be disappointed that the tragic Sandringham incident wasn't in his electorate. I pulled my head in.

    Seymour didn't disappoint though. The headline today is "Act Party criticises PM Jacinda Ardern for not supporting local community after stabbing."

    It's appropriate to mention talk about 16 year olds getting the vote. That's the level Seymour is operating at and the level of the intellectually disadvantaged in that cohort he seeks to appeal to. (With due apologies to 16 year olds with a modicum of intelligence and class.)

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/act-party-criticises-pm-jacinda-ardern-for-not-supporting-local-community-after-stabbing/6ZWMISM6TZHX3BC672R6ITRS5A/

    • observer 5.1
      25 November 2022 at 12:19 pm

      It's a long-running trope that they love: "PM should not be in A, she should be in B".

      If she's at APEC she should be at COP. If she's at COP she should be at APEC. If she's in NZ she should be overseas, if she's overseas she should be in NZ, if she's in Auckland she should be in Wellington, if she's anywhere it's a photo op, if she's not there she's hiding … zzzzzzzz.

      It's a free hit because it can't be wrong. By definition, she is not somewhere. Infantile and idiotic, but Seymour gonna Seymour, he knows his fan base and their obsessive hatred.

      • observer 5.1.1
        25 November 2022 at 1:10 pm

        Right on cue. Article: Chathams.

        Comments on article … not. It's the Daily Cindy-Hate, given a platform by Stuff.

        https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/130579894/jacinda-ardern-visits-the-chathams-a-less-usual-and-much-farther-new-zealand-trip

        • Poission 5.1.1.1
          25 November 2022 at 1:26 pm

          At least she didn't take Mahuta down there.

        • alwyn 5.1.1.2
          25 November 2022 at 1:53 pm

          Out of curiosity what what is there about the article that leads you to call it the "Daily Cindy-Hate"?

          I cannot see anything there that falls into that category. What do you see?

          • observer 5.1.1.2.1
            25 November 2022 at 2:06 pm

            In the article: nothing. It's about the Chathams.

            But the comments already aren't, and won't be (though they are usually closed/deleted later).

            Any Stuff article that mentions the PM gets the same comments. Doesn't matter if the subject is rugby or water or weather or tax or music or recipes with fish.

            • alwyn 5.1.1.2.1.1
              25 November 2022 at 2:20 pm

              Ok. I misunderstood what you were complaining about and thought you meant the article.

              They appear to have cut off the comments very quickly. There are only 3 at the moment which are 2/1 against her going.

              • observer …
                25 November 2022 at 2:41 pm

                Yes, they've closed comments, and deleted some previous ones.

                The Stuff moderation policy is daft. If they don't want the comments (which as I've stated are entirely predictable) then they shouldn't open an article for them … and then close them when the predictable happens. Leave them open and allow for rebuttal and free debate. Or, don't open them. Either is fine.

                The article itself is fine, an overview of Chatham Island issues, no problem.

    • Nic the NZer 5.2
      25 November 2022 at 12:26 pm

      Davids been doing this since forever. Its reminiscent of his weird election ads where he was popping out from behind bushes. Is it mostly spin? Or are the voters of Epsom regularly left wondering just how long their MP has been hanging out there.

    • Muttonbird 5.3
      25 November 2022 at 12:33 pm

      Heather Stupidity-Allen, in her creepy voice, was asking Chris Hipkins why the PM wasn't on the street corner outside the Rose Cottage. He must have thought it was Halloween again.

      I admire these ministers who have to tread so carefully through the mire of malevolent idiocy which is right wing media.

    • Herodotus 5.4
      25 November 2022 at 12:42 pm

      “I considered posting yesterday that he'd be disappointed that the tragic Sandringham incident wasn't in his electorate. I pulled my head in. “- what a vile thing to think – someone was murdered, and you think of this. Says a lot about your character rather than pre supposing on someone else's.

      • observer 5.4.1
        25 November 2022 at 12:46 pm

        Seymour literally said that Ardern needed fear of Covid for political gain, so when he's effectively accused her of hoping for Kiwi deaths, Peter's assessment is not wrong.

        • Herodotus 5.4.1.1
          25 November 2022 at 3:10 pm

          Peter assessment is a pig of a thing to even consider yet alone to publish, and with NO basis. So now can we Boise and extend our thoughts and assign them to others ??

          There are some unglued people out there and more than enough who totally support this site that fall into this category, and even more who find it acceptable as long as they are for Labour imo Peter is still a pig to pass on his thoughts and apply them to someone else, or can/ should we now dedicate comments in this fashion moving forward??

          Perhaps if the govt had thought post announcement of the $6m with follow up question to both officials and store owners/workers then deficiencies and improvements be made. But once announced, the govt moves on to the next crisis, and now we see after this avoidable death that ministers want a review ?? Shouldn’t that have been in progress following the initial commitment to see if it was effective and fit for purpose ?? Guess such follow up is beyond these guys

          • Muttonbird 5.4.1.1.1
            25 November 2022 at 3:54 pm

            No one has explained why it is up to the taxpayer to provide the cost of security to private business, and follow up no less.

            Surely ACT is ideologically opposed to this type of idle dependence on government? Where will it end?

            David Seymour must consider it an abomination…

            • Herodotus 5.4.1.1.1.1
              25 November 2022 at 5:19 pm

              What has your response got to do with my reaction to or Peters VILE comment ??

              And no link from Peter to support his comment. Come on, time for you and others to display some decency, if you are able to

              • observer …
                25 November 2022 at 5:50 pm

                The core question here is: what is genuine concern, and what is shroud-waving and exploitation?

                There's probably not much point debating that, most of us have formed a view on Seymour based on his previous behaviour.

                • Herodotus …
                  25 November 2022 at 6:28 pm

                  No the core question is not …

                  The core question from this thread that I commented on is "I considered posting yesterday that he'd be disappointed that the tragic Sandringham incident wasn't in his electorate. I pulled my head in."

                  Why don't you address this then ?? And where can you or anyone else derive support in Peters comment this out of anything on the subject ?? There is nothing out there to suggest this. Just yours and others acceptance of CRAP behaviour.

                  • Shanreagh …
                    25 November 2022 at 7:02 pm

                    And he did say he decided not to post but laid claim to thinking about it.

                    People do think 'unusual' and bad taste thoughts.

                    What would you have been like had he posted, they'd have had to disattach you from the ceiling after being airborne in an apoplectic rage.

                    Seymour is depressingly persistent in saying the PM should be here, there or anywhere rather than where she is.

                    .

                    • Herodotus …
                      25 November 2022 at 7:17 pm

                      BUT he DID post it !!!!! So your argument is negated. Still no one able to link anything that supports this …. Still waiting or is making unsubstantiated comments now accepted ???

                      and observer don’t look in the mirror you may not like what you see looking back. You definitely are not a green supporter, at least they know there standards and when they swallow a rat they know and admit that it is against what they stand for.

                  • observer …
                    25 November 2022 at 7:04 pm

                    If we all got hauled over the coals for everything we "considered posting" [but didn't] there would probably be lifetime bans for all of us.

                    David Seymour is an MP and party leader. I'd suggest his behaviour is more relevant and worth more of your indignation than somebody commenting on a blog. But each to his own. It's Friday night, I'm out, have a good one.

                    • Shanreagh …
                      25 November 2022 at 7:25 pm

                      Herodotus what is/was the significance of the word Boise in your post? Seems to have gone now?

                      Is this some new urban saying, I did look but can only find a ref to Boise Idaho and Bois for trees in French.

              • Muttonbird …
                25 November 2022 at 7:44 pm

                Peter's comment was an opinion, a personal appraisal of David Seymour, so doesn't require a link supporting it. The evidence is Seymour's grandstanding over crime which he delights making political hay from. Peter did provide a link for that.

                I don't think Seymour is disappointed it didn't happen in Epsom but if it did he'd certainly not let it go to waste.

                His answers, told to his fluffer Heather Stupidity-Allen, are:

                1. To increase hard security tech in presumably every corner shop in the country and presumably at the taxpayers' expense (hence my comment above). I think proper staff training would be far more effective. First lesson might be not to follow a dangerous individual out of the shop.
                2. To use Oranga Tamariki to incarcerate youth offenders so they are not delivered back to the address from which they committed the offence. This would have to be a borstal or juvenile detention because how are you going to keep them there?

                David Seymour is a student politician and an idiot.

                Need a link for that?

      • ianmac 5.4.2
        25 November 2022 at 12:54 pm

        Next best thing for dear David would be to get headlines in the Herald. Oh dear. He has.

        The Act Party is criticising Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern for not being with members of her electorate who were grieving after a man was stabbed to death by a thief who had stolen a cash register from the dairy the man was managing.

        https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/act-party-criticises-pm-jacinda-ardern-for-not-supporting-local-community-after-stabbing/6ZWMISM6TZHX3BC672R6ITRS5A/

      • Muttonbird 5.4.3
        25 November 2022 at 1:41 pm

        Apparently the people of the Chatham Islands should have suffered instead:

        David Seymour denounces Jacinda Ardern's Chatham Islands trip as Givealittle page launched for victim's family

        https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/11/auckland-dairy-stabbing-david-seymour-denounces-jacinda-ardern-s-chatham-islands-trip-as-givealittle-page-launched-for-victim-s-family.html

      • Peter 5.4.4
        25 November 2022 at 1:58 pm

        I expected Seymour to use the incident to play a vile game. It was vile thinking he would?

        He did not disappoint. The reason that he does it and his particular mode of fomenting negativity and hate flourishes is that it's not called for what it is.

  6. ianmac 6
    25 November 2022 at 2:10 pm

    Aeromine Industries in Texas has developed bladeless wind energy solution that makes no sound. It can be linked to existing solar energy systems.

    Sounds great? Can't link as found it on my cell phone.

  7. Sanctuary 7
    25 November 2022 at 2:41 pm

    I know everyone has whinge hysteria mode turned up to the max – I can see the political vultures like Sunny Kaushal and David Seymour sitting on the powerlines in Fowlds Ave from my house – but from my positive RAT test to the delivery of anti-viral pills took less than two hours, whilst after registering my test result I got calls from my GP and PMO nurse within 24 hours. All free. The system does work if you want it to.

  8. Joe90 8
    25 November 2022 at 3:58 pm

    Nightime temperatures in Ukraine are below -0c and videos are emerging of entire squads of Russian mobiks huddled together out in the open or in their dugouts either dead or so hyperthermic they're unable to move.

    Little wonder Poots has boosted spending on domestic security.

    https://twitter.com/NoYardstick/status/1595244723865804801

  9. RosieLee 9
    25 November 2022 at 6:23 pm

    Could someone please explain what this black friday is all about? Are we really so dumb that we allow ourselves to get sucked into this American commercial bullshit?

    • Shanreagh 9.1
      25 November 2022 at 7:12 pm

      Yes apparently so. We have already tucked into our Thanksgiving dinners…….what you don't celebrate Thanksgiving? For shame. /sarc

      As I said last night Black Friday used to be any Friday that fell on the 13th of the month – when you didn't walk under a ladder with a black cat in your arms, or step on the cracks in the pavement, perhaps I have that a bit mixed up. wink

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Friday_(shopping)

      Typical US fashion, excuse the cynicism, it is all about shopping, money and retail.

      • Anne 9.1.1
        26 November 2022 at 12:01 am

        Oh yes, I remember the ladder thing. Everyone scrupulously avoided walking under the ladders. It was a good lurk to stop people being hurt from falling ladders. 😉

        I thought it was the black cat walking across in front of you which was supposed to bring bad luck. Poor harmless pussy. 🙂

The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.