Peters for Northland

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, March 25th, 2015 - 166 comments
Categories: john key, labour, national, uncategorized - Tags: , ,

Winston Peters Northland cropped

I have changed my mind.*

I advocated previously for Northland Progressives to support Willow Jean Prime.  While she is still deserving of support I now think that strategic considerations make the defeat of National of utmost importance and, dare I say this, Winston winning is the only realistic prospect.  The train wreck that is National’s campaign and deepening discontent with the government has made what was completely impossible now a distinct possibility.

A National loss would cause all sorts of ructions.  Historically it would be one of the most significant changes in political fortunes ever.  It would be the equivalent of Labour losing the seat of Rongotai.  Last election the only Labour seats with candidate majorities greater than Mike Sabin’s in Northland were Mangere, Manukau East, Mount Albert and Rongotai.  Imagine the feeling if Labour lost one of these seats.

If I was a Northland voter this weekend I would go to my local polling booth, get my voting paper, go to the voting area, do a sign of the cross, tick Winston, say three Hail Marys, put my voting paper in the voting paper box, ring Willow-Jean and apologise to her and promise practical support for her next Local and Central Government campaigns then retire to the pub and drink strong spirits and watch the results come in.

This would be worth it because if Winston wins then I look forward to watching the look on John Key’s face as he is interviewed and asked what went wrong.  Even Key with his considerable smarmy uber confidence bull$&!t skills would not be able to handle this result and the National Party buzzards who insist on success no matter what would start circling.

And then suddenly Resource Management Act changes, free trade agreements, the Sky City Convention Centre and a few other important matters would be live issues.

New Zealand needs people of the calibre of Willow-Jean Prime in Parliament.  Our country’s future depends on it.  But I hope Winston wins on Saturday.

May God have mercy on my soul …

*No Labour MPs or senior party figures were consulted in the writing of this post.

Update:  And former Labour Cabinet Minister Colin Moyle has had a similar experience …

166 comments on “Peters for Northland ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. sabine 1
    25 March 2015 at 8:35 am

    Amen.

  2. rawshark-yeshe 2
    25 March 2015 at 8:37 am

    Make direct contact with Derryn Hinch through his personal email:

    hinch@hinch.net

    this needs to be done urgently by someone in Australia or outside NZ, please.

      • the lone haranguer 2.1.1
        25 March 2015 at 9:17 am

        Because he can successfully break our suppression laws as hes not in NZ.

        Hinch named our “famous sex offender” who got lifelong name suppression the other year – on the basis that hes famous, but not for being a sex offender

        Possibly Hinch might do it again – this time regarding a “famous Northland offender” if asked nicely

        • te reo putake 2.1.1.1
          25 March 2015 at 9:26 am

          Meh. I wouldn’t reach out to Derryn Hinch if I was drowning. He’s just Whaleoil in flip flops. And what’s the point, anyway? There can’t be many Kiwis who haven’t put two and two together and come up with ten bridges.

          • weka 2.1.1.1.1
            25 March 2015 at 9:32 am

            Pretty sure that most NZers haven’t made the connection. I think you forget how far from here most people are 😉

            The issue is more about how many Northlanders know. I’m guessing many, but also there will be voters who would change their vote if what is speculated upon was made clear.

            • ghostwhowalksnz 2.1.1.1.1.1
              25 March 2015 at 9:45 am

              Hinch is even more obscure for most Northland voters.

              The media wouldnt publicise it because thats could be construed as breaking the ban to point to someone who has.

              Remember in most cases there are victims too who need protection from publicity . Even more so if they are at a very vulnerable age in some situations.

              • weka …
                25 March 2015 at 9:51 am

                True, but I was thinking that many Northland people will know because they talk to each other (rather than getting it from media).

                (I wasn’t commenting on the value of Hinch).

        • Lanthanide 2.1.1.2
          25 March 2015 at 10:01 am

          The NZ media won’t repeat it, because they’ll be in trouble if they do, so ultimately this would achieve very little.

        • Hami Shearlie 2.1.1.3
          25 March 2015 at 3:13 pm

          Wouldn’t that be wonderful?? GO DERRYN!!! – the other person with permanent name suppression that Hinch named, may be “famous”, but I bet that person wouldn’t want to now be famous for his crime!! The victim is, I understand, trying to get that permanent name suppression lifted – more strength to her arm I say!

    • Murray Rawshark 2.2
      25 March 2015 at 11:44 pm

      I can’t stand Hinch. He’s like Garth McVicar. I want nothing to do with him.

  3. jenny kirk 3
    25 March 2015 at 8:38 am

    “” May God have mercy on my soul …”” and on mine too, MS, because I, too, have reluctantly come to the same conclusion, and agree with you.

    • Once was Tim 3.1
      25 March 2015 at 12:49 pm

      I’m pretty sure the Pope will put in a good word for the both of you.

    • Chris 3.2
      25 March 2015 at 6:44 pm

      Don’t you think it’s farcical for Labour (or any party) to put a candidate up but say don’t vote for them? Why can’t the Left understand MMP properly? All this smoke and mirrors rubbish annoys the heck out of me. Labour needs to withdraw its candidate and say to Northland voters what they want them to do. No bullshit, no pretending something that’s not. Just say “vote Peters if you want to help nobble Keys and his henchman.” Just let’s quit the bullshit and get on with MMP politics.

  4. the lone haranguer 4
    25 March 2015 at 8:51 am

    Tho Im to the right of the vast majority of you on here, I thoroughly agree with the “Vote Winston” message.

    Democracy is too important for us to leave the running of this country to the Nats, and anything that undermines their belief that they can do as the please, will be ood for New Zealand.

    Hell, I might even vote Labour in 2017!!!

    • mickysavage 5.1
      25 March 2015 at 8:56 am

      Yep I said in open mike that Winston was toying with Osborne. I presume Joyce was in the same room with Osborne holding up cue cards but it appears that at least some of them were upside down …

      • ghostwhowalksnz 5.1.1
        25 March 2015 at 9:47 am

        You could see Joyces words in yesterdays push back about the marijuana referendum

        It was Joyces style totally. I doubt if Osbourne even saw it till after the media

        • Once was Tim 5.1.1.1
          25 March 2015 at 12:52 pm

          Imagine having to pull the puppet strings on a lump of lard that big. Just as well Joyce is as substantial in the lard department. It must come from shortcomings in the logic department.

          • Tracey 5.1.1.1.1
            25 March 2015 at 1:51 pm

            Fat references? really?

            • Once was Tim 5.1.1.1.1.1
              25 March 2015 at 3:57 pm

              Large lumps or lard references. Large lumps of uselessness, laziness, born-to-rule attitude which may (as a consequence) have produced fatness – as opposed to largeness as a result of inherited physical characteristics. It goes for both Os and Joyce, and it seems a sizeable portion of the National Party. Greed avarice. Yes Tracey – large lumps of lard of their own doing (personal responsibility and all that) – as opposed to the personal responsibility they’re so ready to preach to beneficiaries who may be physically large due to poor diet the result of having to live on a pittance. Geese and ganders

              • Once was Tim …
                25 March 2015 at 4:16 pm

                I’ll go further actually Tracey ….. having come back from Kapiti yesterday where a ‘tradie’ and his wife (stuffing her face with a cream bun), quite out of the blue went into a diatribe about the number of dole bludging bennies bringing the tone of the neighbourhood down.
                To paraphrase … they and their prejudices assumed my political leanings were towards the wonderful Nafe Guy. Anxious for my business no doubt … thinking that denigrating the dole bludging undeserving bennies were a drain on their lifestyle and their ability to upgrade to the latest ute.
                Of course offering a cashie deal – didn’t even occur to them that might be BLUDGING on the rest of us. Two fucking big lumps of lard the pair of them!

                • weka …
                  25 March 2015 at 6:10 pm

                  Fatphobia is still prejudice that affects many people no matter if you have a political reason for it. (and there is no way to make the connections you are making re eating, laziness, privilege etc without prejudice against fatness and people who have large bodies).

        • Tracey 5.1.1.2
          25 March 2015 at 1:50 pm

          is there any point at which personal pride enters this equation? isn’t osborne being made to look foolish and is complicit?

          • Once was Tim 5.1.1.2.1
            25 March 2015 at 4:21 pm

            personal pride?? see my comments above. Os and ilk are perfectly prepared to preach pride and personal responsibility to the rest of us – I’d suggest a little personal pride might see him a slighter lesser lump of lard.
            Just saying. Geese ganders and not a gym apologist by any means. Were it that we all had the money, chance and opportunity to be in perfek health that the likes of the salestalking Os and Joyce have – complete with the latest buzz and bs

            • sirpat 5.1.1.2.1.1
              25 March 2015 at 5:14 pm

              actually you made a fat issue part of this political issue…. good comment on the political but the fat issue is your narrow minded take….showing YOUR prejudice.

              • Once was Tim …
                25 March 2015 at 5:58 pm

                I agree with you as it happens. I’m automatically prejudiced over phat lazy assholes – such as Osbourne, Joyce and most of the Natzis, who preach personal responsibility, EVEN dietry concerns (especially related to their ability to feed their families) whilst all the while pontificating, commanding even others in the same ‘state’ whose predicament is NOT the result of avarice and greed.
                That FAT FUCK Osbourne, and that FAT FUCK Joyce, and that knock-kneeded blubber prick whose physicality is covered up courtesy of Gabana or some other brand, or that phat FUCK Bennet, or various other FFFFFAT Fucks are what they are because of greed and avarice.
                WHEREAS, the overweight, the regularly hospitalised that I know, are NOT the result of such greed and avarice. THey’re the result of P O V E R T Y.
                I’m sorry if that doesn;t fit your template, but it is what it is.

                NOR am I going to apologise to Tracey IF – what I think she infers – is that we should apologise for beicoming a race of overweight (amongst the world’s MOST as it happens) obeise – just because she might happen to like chocolate and is “above average’.

                No no no. Osbourne is a huge lump of L A R D. If that presents itself in ample form – I’m not surprised (I’ve only recently seen a pic of the cnut as it happens, and I wasn’t at all surprised).
                Joyce is equally a HUGE load of useless lard – ideologically driven, of average intelligence, and only promoted because in today’s world we’ve become to worship spin, the ability to offer a sound bite or two, plus a few high profile individuals (in charge of MSM) who agree.
                Osbourne IS a FAT USELESS LOAD OF FUCKING L A R D

                Call it what you will.
                I call Osbourne F AT, UGLY (in all senses of the word), and L A Z Y.

                I’m not sure why there is now all this willingness to decry those that call a situation for what it is.
                We have become a nation of F A T T I E S.
                If you’ve succumbed then I’m sorry for you – The Men That Made Us Fat have won.
                I’m not going to feel guilty tho because you, Or Osbourne, Or Tracey, OR Lprent, Or the muddle class overindulged and were captured.
                I will feel sorry and do my best to assist those that have suffered as a result (through things such as insufficient income ……… etc.)

                Btw …. that’s a very High Horse you seem to be traveling on.
                As it happens, I might have a mate that can fit you with a saddle. It’d have to be a cash job mind you, and strictly on the down low!
                I’ll even throw in a side mount for Steph!

                • weka …
                  25 March 2015 at 6:28 pm

                  Well thanks for clarifying that this isn’t about politics but is all about your personal feelings about bodies and what you personaly can and can’t stand. It’s very similar to homophobia in that sense. Let’s dress up our own internal discomfits and ignorances as politics.

                  That would have to be one of the nastier rants I’ve seen on this on ts. Not only are you making ignorant assertions (weight gain is caused by overeating and lack of control, and some fat people are excused because they are poor but those who aren’t are simply lazy and overprivileged), but you’ve aimed some personal misogynistic shit at one of the women authors here (I don’t know why you are having a dig at Lynn and Stephanie as well, care to explain?).

                  I would have attempted to address the factually incorrect parts of your comment and why your politics on this are naff but it’s so overloaded with personal bigotry that I am wondering if there would be any point.

                  • the pigman …
                    25 March 2015 at 7:44 pm

                    Stray observation: among the spectacularly wealthy (in which category I think we can count Joyce and Osbourne), for the vast majority I would think that body size is much more of a choice/reflection of the exercise of personal responsibility than something like sexual orientation.

                    This could of course be a decent launching pad into a discussion of addiction (because you can bet those food addicts Joyce and Osbourne have little sympathy for addicts with other vices), but thread derails are not really my thing 😀

                    • weka …
                      26 March 2015 at 8:41 am

                      The physiological reasons why some people carry more weight than others is varied and complex. As are the socioeconomic and life/stress reasons. Reducing all that to fat people are lazy and have no control is not only factually incorrrect, but stupid. Worse, it perpetuates prejudice against a class of people, which last time I looked the left was against doing.

                      Stray observation: among the spectacularly wealthy (in which category I think we can count Joyce and Osbourne), for the vast majority I would think that body size is much more of a choice/reflection of the exercise of personal responsibility than something like sexual orientation.

                      I think you would be surprised at both the number of men who choose to have homosexual encounters (as opposed to men who are born gay), and the number of people for whom weight gain is largely out of their control.

                      Nevertheless, that misses my point, which isn’t a comparison of gay men and fat people, but instead is a comparison between the motiviations of the bigotry of homophobes and the bigotry of fathaters. That fathaters have a similar justification for their bigotry (it’s a choice!) just adds to my point.

                      But yeah, we should take this to OM if we want to carry on.

                  • Once was Tim …
                    25 March 2015 at 8:10 pm

                    so be it then @ weka. Interesting you raise the homophobia label. I guess I could be regarded as someone who is ‘Bi’ – since I’ve had relationships with both sexes, although not lately.
                    I’m not about to get all offended if you apply whatever label you wish – go for it
                    Just don’t expect me to feel guilt because there are overweight people who’ve succumbed to ‘The Men That Made Us Fat’ and who live in a nation that has the dubious distinction of being amongst the world’s most obese – JUST BECAUSE I haven’t succumbed and a great many others have.
                    Actually I couldn’t give a shit what YOU look like, or Tracey OR others.
                    Mark Osbourne is a lump of lard because he is lazy, overindulges in all that isn’t good for the human form, whilst all the while moralising about others who don;t have the same luxuries and who maybe the same because they don;t have the opportunity of choice (as regards diet and other things).
                    Similarly Joyce et al.

                    What’s your explanation for NZ becoming a nation of F A T T I E S?

                    I’d say things like cheap processed foods with sugar in everything, the poverty trap, an underclass that’s depressed and downtrodden and in need of various means of escapism – be it pot or Maccas 5 days a week ……

                    OK have it your way: Overweight sugar, processed food addicted people are now the new normal. Doesn’t alter the fact they are
                    F A T. Let’s all resign ourselves to that fact and prepare ourselves for having to deal with that future.

                    Call it a rant, call it whatever you will. The rant would not have occurred had not Tracey suggested the ‘fat thing’. I don;t regard myself as that pretty myself – nor do I not acknowledge my own daughter is ‘above average’. (At least it’s because she rows and life saves and is ‘built’ rather than because she’s a lazy born-to-rule fucktard like an Os or a Joyce who call for personal responsibility and choices in others whilst not acknowledging their own shortcomings).

                    I’m not going to resile from my comment that Osbourne, AND Joyce, AND the likes of Bennett AND others are all a large loads of lard (and its NOT just because they’re big, but more because they have the intelligence and logic of that shit that we used to ‘butter’ our bread with during the last depression)
                    Join that club if you want to.

                    We’re becoming in danger of those two recent posts that dealt with inoculations both resulting in our getting nowhere.
                    No wonder I can only take this place in small doses

                    • weka …
                      26 March 2015 at 8:44 am

                      Yeah, that’s what I thought, it’s about body shaming and hate, and putting people down based on your own internal shit (eg you have no idea about the body size of anyone here including myself and tracey, yet you feel free to assume that you do and then use that a put down). If you want to argue the facts> take it to Open Mike and I’ll join you 😈

                  • Huginn …
                    25 March 2015 at 9:00 pm

                    Weka,
                    You have summed up my feelings about Once was Tim’s appalling rant.

                    Thanks

                    • Huginn …
                      25 March 2015 at 9:37 pm

                      I don’t know whether Osborne is lazy or incompetent.

                      I don’t know anything much about him at all, except that he’s way out of his depth campaigning against Winston Peters in Northland. And who wouldn’t be? Peters is in his element. Watching Osborne doing his best is compelling, in a Theatre of Cruelty sort of way.

                      But when you bang on about his weight like that, you’re being an arsehole.

                      Political life is hard. Anyone who puts him, or herself forward to ask me for my vote deserves respect for doing just that; for taking a part in the democratic process.

                • Murray Rawshark …
                  25 March 2015 at 11:54 pm

                  Baine was not a fuckwit like you. Maybe you should get a habit. Could improve you.

                • sirpat …
                  26 March 2015 at 2:32 pm

                  “Btw …. that’s a very High Horse you seem to be traveling on”…me??????…after that tirade???…..you are very funny or deranged fella !!!

    • One Anonymous Bloke 5.2
      25 March 2015 at 9:17 am

      Winston hammers Osborne, directly calling out his lies, “he just parrots…National Party mantra.”

      He pretty much leaves the media narrative in ruins too. If Northland elects Osborne it certainly won’t be on merit.

    • Clemgeopin 5.3
      25 March 2015 at 10:41 am

      Thanks for the link. It was a very good interview with WJP and WP excelling. Osborne is a very poor choice that National has made for themselves. The final one minute summation by Peters was brilliant!

  6. saveNZ 6
    25 March 2015 at 8:54 am

    Vote Winston.
    Send National a message.

  7. heather 7
    25 March 2015 at 8:54 am

    Yes I agree, never thought I could say it however it’s a chance, that we may be able to restore some sanity to the government of New Zealand and retain what we have before it’s all sold to the highest bidder.

  8. Sirenia 8
    25 March 2015 at 8:55 am

    Rongotai used to be a safe National seat. Brian Edwards couldn’t win it for Labour in 1972 and it took several elections after that to go to Labour. Annette has made it her own through hard work and being a great MP.

    • mickysavage 8.1
      25 March 2015 at 8:58 am

      Agreed. A comparable National seat is Whangarei which used to be very marginal but now is a very safe National seat. What causes seats to change their political complexion over time would be an interesting field of study.

      • ghostwhowalksnz 8.1.1
        25 March 2015 at 10:04 am

        The answer here is two things.

        gentrification and MMP.

        MMP led to much larger electorates, as previously there was around 99, now there are only 71.

        In the Rongotai situation the National electorate was Miramar and the labour one was Island bay. Its not that exact that 2 become one. Gentrification means they are strong in Greens votes as well, which takes votes from national and labour.

        The larger electorates meant that old provincial city electorates included a bigger rural hinterland. These days these outskirts include lifestyle blocks and farming areas that favour National

        The Northland region once had three electorates, Northland, Whangarei and Bay of Islands. As well the Rodney electorate extended further north than it does now.

        Too often the boundary changes which are ongoing are ignored to suggest that this or that electorate has ‘flipped’.

        The Boundaries Commision has strange ideas about community of interest so that for the central north island King Country extends from Inglewood to the outskirts of Hamilton but doesnt include the closer Taupo.

        Then there is Rotorua which now includes Te Puke on the BOP coast but ignores Tokoroa, which is in another electorate that goes from Turangi to outskirts of Hamilton.

        • swordfish 8.1.1.1
          25 March 2015 at 5:43 pm

          Yep. Sirenia is thinking of the old, politically-marginal Miramar seat.

          Rongotai is essentially an MMP combo of the old Miramar and Island Bay seats – and the latter was always one of Labour’s great strongholds. Having said that, there’s no doubt Wellington City as a whole has, in broad terms, swung Left over the last 2 decades. Even the nationwide post-2008 swing to the Nats hasn’t changed that to any appreciable extent.

  9. weka 9
    25 March 2015 at 8:59 am

    This is a great post, thanks micky.

    I have a few questions running through my head now.

    1. is it technically possible for Prime to withdraw as a candidate? I assume not, because early voting has started and voting papers for Sat printed, but what happens if a candidate has to withdraw (eg health reasons)?

    2. is there any reason why Prime can’t of her own initiative and separately from Little, caucus, and the national Labour party machine come out this week and ask people to not vote for her?

    3. would we (the left, the side of good etc ) be better off in this election if it were STV?

    • mickysavage 9.1
      25 March 2015 at 9:17 am

      Ta Weka. To respond to your questions:

      1. Nope. Ballots have been printed and voting has started.

      2. I think that WJ and Andrew have made their position clear.

      3. If it was STV I would be advocating strongly for WJ. A mix of MMP and STV would make for an interesting electoral system.

      • weka 9.1.1
        25 March 2015 at 9:21 am

        1. so if a candidate say falls ill, the votes are lost, and the chips fall where they may?

        2. yes, but my question was if there is any reason why Prime couldn’t ask people to not vote for her (this was a general question, I appreciate your position)? The most obvious one is the shit that Labour would get for it, but I’m wondering if the there is a larger principle here (which you were referring to in your post). I’m personally still unclear where the better ethics lie.

        • Karen 9.1.1.1
          25 March 2015 at 9:31 am

          My feeling is it would be counter productive. Winston can only win if thousands of National Party supporters vote for him. They are willing to do it because they see him as “one of them.” If Willow-Jean is more explicit then that would be used by Nats to say a vote for Winston is a vote for Labour.

      • Colonial Rawshark 9.1.2
        25 March 2015 at 10:28 am

        3. If it was STV I would be advocating strongly for WJ. A mix of MMP and STV would make for an interesting electoral system.

        The Andersons Bay Peninsula branch of the Labour Party will be proposing this change to the electoral system – STV for the electorate candidate vote.

        • mickysavage 9.1.2.1
          25 March 2015 at 10:30 am

          Radicals! 🙂

          • Colonial Rawshark 9.1.2.1.1
            25 March 2015 at 10:38 am

            There have been accusations of such lol

            Odd since, Labour selects it’s electorate candidates in part using STV…

        • DoublePlusGood 9.1.2.2
          25 March 2015 at 12:57 pm

          I prefer preferential voting (single-MP seat, rank them, serially eliminate the candidate with the fewest 1st preference votes and allocate their vote to remaining candidates on preferences) for electorate seats over STV (multiple-MP seats, similar use of preferences but also transfers ‘excess votes’). My preference for PV over STV is mostly because we would likely end up with some geographically very large multimember seats with odd results [1] if we were wanting to implement STV properly. Also it also makes for byelections that are Really Weird (and expensive) – a point worth considering if National are going to continue to select people as MPs who have to leave parliament in a hurry.

          [1] Such as a 5-member seat for Otago-Southland that would probably elect 5 National MPs despite including Dunedin. Or, going a bit smaller in MPs per seat, a 3-member seat for Wellington City where Labour, the Green Party, and National would all have to carefully consider how many candidates to stand, given the perverse potential to get less seats if they stand too many candidates.

  10. the lone haranguer 10
    25 March 2015 at 9:12 am

    I am a bit concerned that the pikky at the top of the article resembles Imran Khan rather than Winston Peters.

    But I guess both are populist politicians who reply on name recognition over policy.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 10.1
      25 March 2015 at 10:08 am

      Its photoshop.
      The hair is the same, only winstones wrinkled mug is placed on top

  11. One Anonymous Bloke 11
    25 March 2015 at 9:12 am

    Resource Management Act changes, free trade agreements, the Sky City Convention Centre

    Just to be cynical for a moment: what do any of those issues mean to the non-voting population of Northland?

    Does the TPPA mean New Zealand will have to treat them as equal trading partners?

  12. Penny Bright 12
    25 March 2015 at 9:14 am

    Gee – what took you so long?

    😉

    When Winston Peters takes Northland off National – it will prove (at last) that the ‘left’ get strategic voting?

    YAY!!

    Penny Bright

  13. Skinny 13
    25 March 2015 at 9:23 am

    While I hold out hope Peters will cause an upset I think Labour have messed up by not insisting Prime come out and say vote Peters straight after their polling showed she was running 3rd. If the numbers stack that it cost Peters a win then that’s me done with
    Labour and I will cross over to the Greens.

    • te reo putake 13.1
      25 March 2015 at 9:29 am

      Wow, I just had a flashback to Muldoon’s thoughts on emigration, skinny 😉

      • Skinny 13.1.1
        25 March 2015 at 10:06 am

        Throwing support behind Peters will have an immediate effect of trimming back Nacts powers, it also shows the public that Labour can work effectively in opposition with NZF, and strenghens the wider view that they can work together to form a Government coalition. Having dealt with Peters previously I know he is a difficult character, but you can work with him. His racist views are testing, however his vocal opposition to foreign ownership of our land is commendable.

        • Tracey 13.1.1.1
          25 March 2015 at 2:10 pm

          Are you saying Dunne has suddenly found a conscience that will trump his clear preference to preserve his own position and “package”?

          • Skinny 13.1.1.1.1
            25 March 2015 at 2:31 pm

            Dunne will feather his own nest apu, however cracking National could be the start of the tide turning, I am happy winning one battle at a time. Aren’t you?

      • weka 13.1.2
        25 March 2015 at 10:06 am

        Oi!

    • Clemgeopin 13.2
      25 March 2015 at 10:51 am

      No, I don’t agree. The thoughtful, smart strategy adopted by WJP, Little and Labour is the best for now and for the long term.

      They practically HAVE endorsed Winston without actually saying so in so many words. Only the very dumb voters will not understand that.

      I also think many of the votes that WJP may get will actually come from ex Nat voters who simply don’t wish to vote for National this time or Winston for whatever reason.

      In spite of all that, I think Winston will win, and win well.

      • felix 13.2.1
        25 March 2015 at 11:18 am

        Yep. Little and WJ got the messaging about right.

        As explicit as they could be, and explicit as they needed to be.

  14. tc 14
    25 March 2015 at 9:39 am

    note the lack of hypocritical indigation from the usual suspects who Tr@ll here.

    Must be a CT briefing on before the final assault.

    • Tracey 14.1
      25 March 2015 at 2:12 pm

      Hopefully they are working on the script for making a loss into a bonus and endorsement of their great strategy and direction for NZ

  15. greywarshark 15
    25 March 2015 at 9:41 am

    TRP
    Are you sure that you aren’t stuck to the past with Superglue?

  16. BLiP 16
    25 March 2015 at 9:44 am

    ‘

    [deep sigh] . . . Looks like I’ll prolly end up getting a serious growling from God too because I was on the phone last night encouraging the few contacts I have Up North to swing in behind Winston.

    I only changed my mind yesterday. Never one to be particularly accurate in my political prognostications, my doubts about Winston were that even if he did win the seat, his inner tory would emerge to do the dirty on us all by becoming John’s Little Helper in return for some serious post-Beehive baubles. Also, is it *really* gonna make that much difference? I wasn’t at all surprised to see Osbourne, Key, Joyce, Bridges (heh!) and their fellow oiks devolve into employing ad hom filled negative campaigning. Simply put, there is not one argument National Ltd™ can win on facts or policy or track record on any matter of significance to Northland so it has no option other than to distract attention away from itself by hurling insults. Fair nuff, typical John Key style . . . but then I noticed the vehemence with which National Ltd™ was delivering the nasty. No way is Winston gonna be doing much a deal with that crew.

    National Ltd™ is furious with Winston. How dare he cruise in like some blinged-up rock star with his bus and how dare he simply pluck what National Ltd™ believes belongs to it by right – not by virtue of toil but, rather, just by plain born-to-rule fuck-you arrogance. Its apparent to me now that National Ltd™ needs to lose Northland because the humiliation might actually give it pause to take a long hard look at itself and recognise it has become an utter travesty of genuine political representation of the people.

    So, yeah, Go Winston! In my ideal world, having Winston as Northland’s MP will enliven the electorate’s interest in politics because it too needs to take a serious look at itself and the real-world results of its decisions about who can best represent their interests. Winston will take delight in doing a great job and, with a view to winning Northland back, National Ltd™ will grit its teeth and enable him as much as it can without affording him the kudos for it. Once unshackled from National Ltd™ and starting to enjoy having politicians actually working for it , the electorate might also switch-off its default Tory setting and maybe even give a conscious consideration to facts and evidence and results rather than automatically opting for the emotionally soothing yet pernicious comfort of the familiar.

    Dreams are free. So too will be the entertainment to be had in watching Winston relish his triumphant bus trip “home” and National Ltd™’s glowering impotent fury for the next wee while.

    • mickysavage 16.1
      25 March 2015 at 9:46 am

      Thanks BLiP. Road to Damscus type conversion?

      • BLiP 16.1.1
        25 March 2015 at 9:55 am

        ‘

        Heh! Not quite. More likely its the anti-biotics and flu meds I’ve been swallowing for the last few days.

        • ghostwhowalksnz 16.1.1.1
          25 March 2015 at 10:34 am

          Anti biotics ?
          For flu ( or cold even)

          • BLiP 16.1.1.1.1
            25 March 2015 at 12:06 pm

            ‘

            Anti-biotics for strep-throat and those sachet painkiller/decongestant combos for snotty, miserable cold, plus warm brandy (yes, at lunch time) so I can really feel sorry for myself while I try and give up the fags.

      • saveNZ 16.1.2
        25 March 2015 at 9:56 am

        +1
        The world is not perfect, but Winston is going to do a much better job for Northland than Osbourne will.
        If the Nats lose, the knives will come out, and John Key who does not like to be portrayed as a loser, will look at an exit strategy to a nice cushy job while he has an unblemished record on General Elections.
        You don’t get to make 50 mill as a currency trader by not knowing timing.

        • millsy 16.1.2.1
          25 March 2015 at 10:28 am

          From the sounds of it, Osborne is as thick as a brick, incapable of original throught, That he named John Key as his political hero, while the others named the likes of Churchill and Savage speaks volumes.

          • Hami Shearlie 16.1.2.1.1
            25 March 2015 at 3:23 pm

            That “well thought out statement” will do him in as far as many people are concerned!! Hero politicians are those who have a record in Govt and in Opposition that stands the test of time as far as integrity and honesty and character go – but John Key? Really?? Oh dear, Mark Osborne, your really must get out more – preferably out of Northland!

        • Olwyn 16.1.2.2
          25 March 2015 at 3:31 pm

          I have long thought that his resignation, when it comes, will come via a text from a plane outa here.

    • Tracey 16.2
      25 March 2015 at 2:15 pm

      I am not sure why the Left thinks Dunne will swing in behind them in terms of government accountability UNLESS Dunne sees it as a tide turning and the time to start aligning with the left who will be the 2017 govt (in his mind) and he needs 2 years to side with them to ensure baubles if the left takes the benches in 2017?

    • sirpat 16.3
      25 March 2015 at 5:24 pm

      Great thoughts but can we really trust Winston???…..he really is a one man band who swings to suit his own agenda…..probably the only thing we can be sure of…..if he can get baubles off key as you say and at his age I wonder just what he would do. he is a master at the 180 degree turn.

  17. Sable 17
    25 March 2015 at 10:06 am

    Why is Labour so wonderful and Winston a burnt offering? One of the few politicians to keep his word to his constituents is Winston Peters. If Labour were half as honest they might stand more than a snowballs chance in hell of getting my vote.

    I hope Winston wins and I don’t need to ask any God for forgiveness for thinking so.

    • Tracey 17.1
      25 March 2015 at 2:17 pm

      Given labour openly courted Winston as a coalition partner in campaign 2014 and cried off the greens I am not sure why so many labour voters are reluctant to vote for Winnie in this instance.

      National and the Press hate Winston, in part cos he shows them up and burned the Nats, Labour and the media in the winebox when he did a good thing! A VERY good thing.

      i don’t believe in God. And if I had even an inkling listening tot he latest contender int he Presidential race would convince me there is no such entity.

  18. ianmac 18
    25 March 2015 at 10:16 am

    There is irony in the call for the Winston vote. A few years back there was a great deal of venom directed at Winston on this site as well as near universal condemnation elsewhere. The martians will be very confused.
    In this case I would certainly vote for Winston if I lived in Northland.

    • lprent 18.1
      25 March 2015 at 11:59 am

      2008-10?

      I spent quite a bit of time explaining back then that while I didn’t particularly like Winston or NZ First, that they’d be BACK in parliament.

      They appeal to some particular constituencies in the body politic (generally the groups I call the nostalgic and arsekickers) who vote every election. Parties with strong core constituencies close to 5% or more survive. Unlike the ones that are more puff and noise than actual substance like Act, United Future, New Labour, Internet Mana, maybe Mana, and probably the Maori Party.

      I still don’t particularly like either Winston or the party. But I still recognize that they are likely to survive, even after Winston finally retires. The constituency will still be there and replenishing as people age and move into the nostalgic and arsekicker mindsets. That means you work out how to live with a political party in that position.

      National hasn’t. I think that trying to kill and husk out NZ First in 2008 with the complete bullshit that they used will continue to bite them for decades to come. The NZF voters and party people were not happy with that move. It strikes directly at the kernel of “fairness” that most of them hold as a value and activates the action of vindictive resentment that many also have.

      • Tracey 18.1.1
        25 March 2015 at 2:20 pm

        Ron Mark has been more visible and vocal since the election than, say, the Maori Party leader/s.

  19. millsy 19
    25 March 2015 at 10:25 am

    Winston is really the only choice for Northlanders.

    Probably the only chance for the outsiders, misfits, nerds, dreamers, mavericks, and generally all of those left behind by 31 years of neo-liberalism, tepid Blairism, and meaningless centre politics, to lash out and bloody the noses of the National Party, the right wing media, business elite, rich property developers, and big iwi, not to mention their fifth columnists in the Labour Party.

    Yes, he may be at heart a Tory, but he is a true compassionate conservative, but like his namesake and idol., Winston Churchill, knows full well, that unbridled free market capitalism is a theat to civil society.

  20. Colonial Rawshark 20
    25 March 2015 at 10:32 am

    From the time the by-election was announced, it was clear that Prime could never win. In September’s results, even Lab + GR added together had a 5000 vote deficit behind the Nats. Labour’s political strategists in Wellington pretending anything but that reality missed a massive opportunity here.

    And if they hadn’t fucked Hone, both Laila and Hone would be in Parliament today. Then with a Peter’s win, the John Key government would be stuck in limbo for the next two years, negotiating legislation one bit at a time.

    Labour always closes doors for itself. It’s ridiculous.

    • millsy 20.1
      25 March 2015 at 10:37 am

      To be honest I find Prime to be a pretty uninspiring candidate. Her back story seems to be rather typical — lawyer, iwi, non-profits.

      If Labour want to win any election, then they need to field candidates who are going to inspire and motivate them to get out of bed to the polling booth.

      • Colonial Rawshark 20.1.1
        25 March 2015 at 10:41 am

        Labour has long forgotten how to select candidates who will appeal beyond their narrow modern constituency. Who was the last miner, tradesman or machinist who got in as a Labour MP?

        • millsy 20.1.1.1
          25 March 2015 at 10:47 am

          A lot of those Labour MP’s now wouldnt know one end of a lathe from the other.

          Mind you there wouldnt be many National MP’s who have had to deliver a calf in freezing rain and wind in the middle of the night either..

          Cuts both ways really…

          • ghostwhowalksnz 20.1.1.1.1
            25 March 2015 at 12:18 pm

            Having spent a short time operating a lathe, you wouldnt want to stay with one for very long.

            Anyway, way back then had just indroduced one of those automated ones, so most of the work done now uses those.

    • ianmac 20.2
      25 March 2015 at 10:38 am

      Andrew walked the fine line. He advocated strategic voting without explicitly saying vote for Winston. This upset Mr Key who badly wants to be able to accuse Andrew of hypocrisy but cannot quite point to anything explicit.
      Instead Mr Key looks sort of bitter. How sad.

      • Colonial Rawshark 20.2.1
        25 March 2015 at 10:44 am

        Andrew walked the fine line. He advocated strategic voting without explicitly saying vote for Winston

        That “fine line” was weeks after it became clear that there would be a by-election. When electoral reality finally sunk in. First though, Labour had been busy trumpeting that they would launch and fund a full scale campaign for victory in Northland.

        • weka 20.2.1.1
          25 March 2015 at 10:50 am

          Do you think that they really believed that Prime had a chance at taking the seat (as opposed to running a good campaign, getting Prime more experience, and increasing Labour’s presence in Northland but understanding that she wouldn’t win)?

          • Colonial Rawshark 20.2.1.1.1
            25 March 2015 at 11:09 am

            Dunno, but they wanted our Labour branch to contribute a shit load of money to the Northland campaign.

            As one of our branch officers said: “I can successfully lose the Northland campaign for just half that sum!”

            • saveNZ 20.2.1.1.1.1
              25 March 2015 at 11:15 am

              @ C. R
              hehe

            • ghostwhowalksnz 20.2.1.1.1.2
              25 March 2015 at 12:25 pm

              You obviously havent heard of ‘event fund raising’

              Anniversaries, random events etc all used as ’emotion markers’ to get your attention and your money.

              That is how it should be done.

              Emotion based politics is in , dry policies dreamt up by old men in meetings is finished. Sorry about that Anderson bay Branch.

              It doesnt have to be big emotions, but the campaign about ‘tea breaks’ is a good example.
              This could effect everyone and is relevant to young voters especially, who dont sit behind a desk.

              • Colonial Rawshark …
                25 March 2015 at 4:24 pm

                Anniversaries, random events etc all used as ‘emotion markers’ to get your attention and your money.

                That is how it should be done.

                Well, our branch doesn’t like being treated like saps, and it didn’t get any of our money.

                Emotion based politics is in , dry policies dreamt up by old men in meetings is finished. Sorry about that Anderson bay Branch.

                Huh? I’m betting that you are older than the median age of our branch meeting attendees. Sorry about that, dude. A new generation is under way.

        • Skinny 20.2.1.2
          25 March 2015 at 3:08 pm

          Yes and the way National have used the narrative that Labour threw Prime under Winston’s bus they may as well have come out openly and said vote for Peters our candidate can not win and it is not like there are party votes on the line. It was stupidity that they didn’t. Ground hog day of continued silly strategy. Just wait for the review of the by election strategy should labour vote cost a collective win for a potential coalition. I doubt it will come to that as the shift of disgruntled Nat voters won’t be enough. Hope I am wrong but I can not see it.

    • weka 20.3
      25 March 2015 at 10:48 am

      And if they hadn’t fucked Hone, both Laila and Hone would be in Parliament today. Then with a Peter’s win, the John Key government would be stuck in limbo for the next two years, negotiating legislation one bit at a time.

      Labour always closes doors for itself. It’s ridiculous.

      This is what I was getting at above. Is the larger principle more important? What are the ethics here?

      Part of the problem seems to be Labour’s history of standing in every electorate. Compare this to the GP who can easily not stand someone in Northland and avoid the whole conundrum. For Labour to change such a core policy would be a big move right?

      Beyond that, the medium term question is how could Labour change on this without being seen as weak or opportunistic?

      Both the GP and Labour have made a big deal about not manipulating MMP to their advantage. For them to work more smartly with MMP and to work with their natural allies to form govt, they have to walk themselves back from this position, and I don’t yet see how that can be done (as opposed to knowing what they should do).

      • saveNZ 20.3.1
        25 March 2015 at 11:07 am

        @Weka
        I think the general public don’t so much care about the strategy, they care about the policy and the end result.

        No one cares what Labour does they care more about the end outcome. If Labour screws up strategy and lets the Nats through to run riot, the public are angry at labour for being stupid, not wringing their hands saying, ‘oh Labour you principled party, you”. Umm especially when Labour were the transparently worst party for ethics in the past election.

        • greywarshark 20.3.1.1
          25 March 2015 at 11:13 am

          @ savenz 20 3 1
          Good thoughts

        • Colonial Rawshark 20.3.1.2
          25 March 2015 at 11:15 am

          I’ll summarise it: Kiwis stop supporting teams which keep employing losing strategies and continue to refuse to change what they do on the field because it will be better next season.

        • Clemgeopin 20.3.1.3
          25 March 2015 at 11:30 am

          “Umm especially when Labour were the transparently worst party for ethics in the past election”

          That is just absolute crap you wrote.

          • saveNZ 20.3.1.3.1
            25 March 2015 at 1:28 pm

            @Clemgeopin
            Nope don’t think so.
            Labour shat on their leader/s like Cunlifffe.
            Labour shat on their potential allies like Greens.
            Labour shat on Hone.
            Labour shat on the voters with crap policies that made it difficult to justify voting for them.
            Labour shat on the voters by expecting to get their vote, after doing nothing meaningful in opposition for 6 years.
            But Labour did not stand up to National, did not investigate Nicky Hager claims on dirty politics when they should have.
            Condemned Dotcom for no reason and the mass surveillance claims which appear to be true.

            The worst party for ethics was National, but Labour were a transparent basket case of crap, and worse they bought others down with them, and stopped others climbing up so that worse sewerage of National surfaced.

            Sometimes doing nothing or very little or even modifying is as bad as participating.

      • greywarshark 20.3.2
        25 March 2015 at 11:39 am

        Both the GP and Labour have made a big deal about not manipulating MMP to their advantage. For them to work more smartly with MMP and to work with their natural allies to form govt, they have to walk themselves back from this position, and I don’t yet see how that can be done (as opposed to knowing what they should do).

        Is Labour the Grand Old Party of NZ that always stands for its principles of helping the lower paid workers and low income citizens? That’s a skewed view if anyone now has it. When Roger Douglas and his Sneaky Subversives got busy and started overturning the policy and strategic consultation tables, Labour abandoned close connection with earlier principles.

        Making another change to a fully-utilised-MMP strategy can easily be facilitated and explained by saying that National does it, it is legal and they have utilised it, and Labour will be unwise to hold back from similarly acting. And state the facts. ‘Labour must change what it has been doing or we will not get back into government and be able to help the country move forward with our policies which will improve prosperity and opportunities for all.

      • ghostwhowalksnz 20.3.3
        25 March 2015 at 12:37 pm

        An alternative for Mana, was to avoid the German and internet party entirely – as a lot of their members like Sue Bradford suggested.

        Then that could have opened up an accommodation in Waiariki with labour in return for letting Davis have an easier path in TTT

        With Sykes winning Waiariki, that finishes off MP completely, 2 Mps gone.

        Sykes brings in Hone as well, a twofer.

        Its crazy to suggest Labour gives Hone a free pass without some thing concrete in return.
        The two seat tango does that and is a much much bigger problem for national

        • DoublePlusGood 20.3.3.1
          26 March 2015 at 12:19 am

          I think Labour would still have thrown Mana under the bus in that circumstance too. Mana did actually increase their vote a decent amount at the election.

    • saveNZ 20.4
      25 March 2015 at 11:01 am

      @C R
      Yep but lets hope Labour are learning:)

    • Skinny 20.5
      25 March 2015 at 1:07 pm

      I agree CV what was the point of delaying supporting Peters. I have to say Mickey is typical of many within Labour, going into a later save face damage control mode.

      The Greens in Northland have learnt and have been outstanding working together. They told head office to piss off standing a candidate In the by election as at the time Prime was the only one coming forward, then when Peters throw his hat in the ring they are getting behind supporting him.

      Honestly harping on about Prime as real talent is stupid, she has performed pretty poorly on the campaign trail that I’ve seen. Davis is over rated too. Where was the campaign to get Maori seats on the Far North council??
      Zero campaign equals zero seats, Hone where was he also where all useless.

      • tracey 20.5.1
        25 March 2015 at 4:17 pm

        Could Labour have been all set up to run, and pay for a campaign BEFORE Winston confirmed?

    • Bearded Git 20.6
      25 March 2015 at 2:33 pm

      @CR Time to move on mate. Little will win the next election-he is already showing the nous and pragmatism needed.

      If the Nats lose another member we might even have an early election……

      BTW by yesterday 7,809 had cast early votes in Northland.

      • Colonial Rawshark 20.6.1
        25 March 2015 at 5:49 pm

        @CR Time to move on mate. Little will win the next election

        Perhaps, but watch out for the FPP thinking. Labour will not be able to form a government in 2017 without Winston.

    • Chooky 20.7
      25 March 2015 at 4:05 pm

      +100 CR

  21. Brewer 21
    25 March 2015 at 10:39 am

    Been trying to buy Winston on iPredict at under 60% probability for a week. No chance.
    Time to consider the long-term implications of this by-election going against the Nats.
    Some have speculated that 2017 might see some serious money/political capital lining up behind NZ1st pushing it in towards an “old-Labour” leftish party to coalition with Labour and bring New Zealand back to social justice and non-alignment.
    A lot would depend on the succession when Winnie retires which will likely be during the next term.
    What if a David Cunliffe, Shane Jones or Phil Goff type were to board NZ1st and they gain 2 or three electorate seats??

    • millsy 21.1
      25 March 2015 at 10:44 am

      Or even John Tamihere — though he would be probably try and get on Colin Craig’s team..

  22. Pascals bookie 22
    25 March 2015 at 10:52 am

    I think Lab has got it about right with their messaging.

    The simple fact is that Naorthland is a conservative tory seat. It just is. If Winston wins it, even with Lab voters getting him over the line for tactical reasons, that won;t change the fact that the mp will need the support of Northlands voters.

    If Winston wins, that doesn’t set up a coalition on the left with Winston, it moves Winston to the right. You dance with them what brung you, and Winston, (if he wants NZF to hold the seat) will have to dance with National. And look at what he has been saying. He can work with National.

    the Nats are running aorund with their hair on fire screaming that Winston will scupper them, but that doesn’t mean they believe it, and nor should people on the left.

    • Karen 22.1
      25 March 2015 at 10:58 am

      +1 Pascals Bookie

      • weka 22.1.1
        25 March 2015 at 11:00 am

        +2

        • saveNZ 22.1.1.1
          25 March 2015 at 11:13 am

          @P B
          Yes, but it is up to Labour to try to broker a deal too. The best negotiator will win. Winston will just do what he wants to do. That is why people vote for him. He will get the best deal for the principals he believes in and people of Northland. He will be able to temper National and not in a stupid way like the 24 hr vs 48 hr surveillance bill that Labour tried to do.

          Also Winston has no love for National and Act after what they did to him.

          • saveNZ 22.1.1.1.1
            25 March 2015 at 11:17 am

            In fact I hope Winston wins and he is in retribution mode…

            Might even make politics mildly amusing for the masses.

            Keep the news ratings up….

    • Brewer 22.2
      25 March 2015 at 11:15 am

      Not sure I agree Pas. Northland is tory by default. I think there are only 2,500 cockies, may of whom lean alternative. Lots of crafty/alt horticulturists, most leftists drained off by the Maori roll. Don’t forget they returned Vern.
      I think they respond pragmatically to a charismatic candidate of any stripe as they are demonstrating in this by-election. Lot of anti deep state/TPP sentiment.
      Anyway, just kite flying.

      • Bearded Git 22.2.1
        25 March 2015 at 2:39 pm

        @Brewer You may have seen my post the other day where I calculated that Winston had to get about 25% of the people who voted National last time in order to win. Given the way the campaign is going this should be relatively easy.

    • Colonial Rawshark 22.3
      25 March 2015 at 11:17 am

      Well PB, if Winston is inherently a right wing player, then LAB + GR are permanently stuffed because the two parties together will not get more than ~43% of the vote in 2017 (say LAB on 31% and Greens on 12%). And you ain’t forming a government on that.

      • Pascals bookie 22.3.1
        25 March 2015 at 12:03 pm

        Didn’t say Winston is ‘inherently RW’, I sadi Northland is a safe RW seat and if that if he wins, he will be repping a safe RW seat.

        Ignoring that because it makes some sky castle a bit harder to build seems short sighted.

    • Olwyn 22.4
      25 March 2015 at 11:22 am

      I broadly agree, but with a couple of caveats. While Peters would be mindful of the voters who chose him, there are a couple of things he would not give up, because they have been constants throughout his career: he is a soft nationalist and he takes democracy seriously. So while he will represent those people in relation to National, he will not give National an easy ride. Moreover, a bloody nose in a bi-election will send National further into the defensive mode that they have already to some extent entered – did you hear English on Morning Report today? This will not sit well with their attempts to push their extreme policies behind a veneer of relaxed centrism. They look as if they may have already reached the point John Howard reached with Work Choices, where their political capital is insufficient to cover “pay back time” for their big donors. So a victory for Winston is still very much worth having, even if it will not in any direct way be a victory for the left.

      English on Morning Report: http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/20172286

      • greywarshark 22.4.1
        25 March 2015 at 11:43 am

        @ Olwyn
        Thanks for bringing that perspective which sounds convincing for the reality.

      • Pascals bookie 22.4.2
        25 March 2015 at 12:00 pm

        Not saying it isn’t worth having for the left. I agree with you that it will have affects for National too.

        I’m saying that a Winston win here will make it harder for the left to do a deal with him, as he will will have a bunch of things making National deals more likely.

        • Olwyn 22.4.2.1
          25 March 2015 at 12:16 pm

          Assuming that other things stay the same that is right. However, for the left to gain any real traction something has to change, and a rattled National Party could be just the change we need. Should the left gain some real traction, then Peters would be taking that into account when he made his choices. Although his constituency up there would be largely from the right, they would probably accept him cutting the best deal he could for Northland from either side.

          • Pascals bookie 22.4.2.1.1
            25 March 2015 at 12:20 pm

            I suspect that the most interesting change this might bring about will be within NZF.

            If Winston is going to deliver for Northland, he will need to work with National. Support RMA reform, get the goldcard stuff he was selling this morning and share the credit for the bridges, something like that.

            How that plays within NZFs list vote is then in play. There is a risk for him that NZF is forced to step off the fence that enables them to draw voters from both the left and the right.

            • greywarshark 22.4.2.1.1.1
              25 March 2015 at 12:39 pm

              Yes that might be so and the interaction required with UNACT could muddy NZF image. But NZF in still could have better outcomes for Northland and the country over the next two years.
              And in the end might reinforce NZF as a useful and viable small party.

            • Olwyn 22.4.2.1.1.2
              25 March 2015 at 1:01 pm

              I agree with you with regard to bridges and gold cards, etc, but Peters himself seems to me to be fundamentally opposed to the globalist, neo-liberal side of National that is personified by Key. This feature plays a large part in his gaining votes from left and right. So a lot would depend on how much National is willing to allow itself to be modified by Peters, or how far the party would be willing to move away from his position. If he wins he will retain and perhaps even increase his say about his party’s position, since he will be the one holding a seat. And I simply cannot see him wholly abandoning that central plank.

            • Brewer 22.4.2.1.1.3
              25 March 2015 at 2:24 pm

              “the most interesting change this might bring about will be within NZF.”
              This was what I had in mind.
              There is an entire organisation there that has some momentum but it is largely built around Winston. It will be up for grabs sometime in the next cycle. Should someone with a proven track record and political capital move in they will probably be able to do a Jim Anderton.

            • Bearded Git 22.4.2.1.1.4
              25 March 2015 at 2:41 pm

              @PB Winston has made it plain he won’t support the gutting of the RMA such that it becomes a developer’s charter.

      • weka 22.4.3
        25 March 2015 at 12:52 pm

        ” he takes democracy seriously.”

        this is an aside, but he favours macho democracy, whereby the people with the most power should be represented. His actively working against the GP and Mana show that he thinks a significant chunk of NZers should be disenfranchised. (I’d be interested to know if he treats ACT similarly).

        • Olwyn 22.4.3.1
          25 March 2015 at 1:09 pm

          I am not a NZF voter and I did not like him interfering in TTT either. When I said that it was in reference to what Peters has said and done over the long haul, and what he appears to think of himself. I see him as being of the pre-neo-liberal right, not of the left.

    • DS 22.5
      25 March 2015 at 3:30 pm

      By that reasoning, the Maori Party should have cuddled up with Labour – their seats are traditionally Red. But they didn’t – too much bad blood and ego involved.

      I think if Winston wins Northland, he’ll be a thorn in the side of the Nats in the way that the Maori Party holding Maori seats is a thorn in the side of Labour. And short of someone like Bill English becoming Nat leader, I can’t see Winston working with Key, Joyce, Bennett, et al.

      (Also, NZF party vote trumps Northland. Going with the Nats would destroy the party vote across the rest of the country).

  23. greywarshark 23
    25 March 2015 at 11:40 am

    I think the image for this post is great. Don’t know where you found it but whoever worked on it did a great job – it’s a work of art.

    • Clemgeopin 23.1
      25 March 2015 at 12:31 pm

      That photo was taken just after Winston completed his long lonely march across the Antarctic with blood, sweat and some tears. Now he is trying to miraculously conquer the mighty Mount Everest using that very same attire. What a guy! He da man! Even Ozzy might vote for him now!

    • ghostwhowalksnz 23.2
      25 March 2015 at 12:38 pm

      Game of Thrones !

  24. Philip Ferguson 24
    25 March 2015 at 11:53 am

    Alternatively, we could view the problem as capitalism, not one of the capitalist parties alone (National):
    https://rdln.wordpress.com/2015/03/08/northland-by-election-worker-solidarity-or-winston-peters/

    • Murray Rawshark 24.1
      26 March 2015 at 12:43 am

      I would call the view expressed in that as ultra-left. Winston is obviously not anti-capitalist and has some terrible racist views. I still want to see him win Northland, because I see that as possibly making the passage of the TPPA and the gutting of the RMA less likely. These gains will not weaken the position of workers in Aotearoa. The byelection is one small battle, as is the TPPA. Both are battles which can be organised around.

  25. Treetop 25
    25 March 2015 at 1:06 pm

    I just hope that the non Key backers (and some of the undecided Key backers) are all as smart as Colin Moyle in Northland. (Willow Jean Prime has not been dealt the best hand, I am sure she will nail it next time). Were Winston to win, being a fndc is going to be fun.

    Early votes are just a couple thousand off those who voted for the entire seat last election.

  26. Wayne 26
    25 March 2015 at 2:05 pm

    The only comment I would make is; Don’t complain about Epsom or Ohariu in the future.

    • Brewer 26.1
      25 March 2015 at 2:31 pm

      I think there is a World of difference between pre-election inter-party deal making which deprives the people of their right to choose and this situation.

      • mickysavage 26.1.1
        25 March 2015 at 3:07 pm

        Agreed. Besides there is no way that NZF is a puppet party, unlike UF or ACT …

    • lprent 26.2
      25 March 2015 at 3:09 pm

      Who are you talking to? One individual making a decision about who they’d support if they lived in that electorate and saying it on a blog?

      Compared to the head of a party making a very public gesture towards another party leader teacup in hand.

      Pleeeze get a sense of proportionality. One is not equivalent to another.

    • Karen 26.3
      25 March 2015 at 3:39 pm

      There is no comparison because
      1. There are actual pre election deals in both Ohariu and Epsom
      2. More importantly, neither Act nor United Future would have a got enough votes to get an MP otherwise, and National would have won those seats. NZ First got over the 5% threshold and Labour has no chance of winning Northland.

    • Pascals bookie 26.4
      25 March 2015 at 4:33 pm

      lol wayne.

      What’s suggested here is nothing like Epsom.

      Is Northland a safe Labour seat?

      No. So It’s different from Epsom in the very point that makes Epsom the deal that it is.

    • the pigman 26.5
      26 March 2015 at 1:24 am

      Diddums…

  27. Tanz 27
    25 March 2015 at 2:29 pm

    Why did Labour even run a candidate? Without that, Winston would have been a shoo-in. He may still win, but not as easily as he would have…..here’s hoping.

    • Stephanie Rodgers 27.1
      25 March 2015 at 3:31 pm

      Willow-Jean Prime expressed her interest in standing again on 31 January, the day after Mike Sabin resigned. Her nomination was received on 9 February and her candidacy confirmed on 11 February. Her campaign was launched on 22 February.

      Winston didn’t announce his candidacy until nearly a week later on 27 February.

      So Labour ran a candidate because literally no one had any idea Winston was seriously going to throw his hat into the ring. (And even if there were rumours, there were similar murmurs about him running in East Coast Bays against Colin Craig, and that all came to nothing.)

      I find it funny the way there’s this narrative floating in the air – “Labour never talks to its allies on the left! Labour should act in a more united way!” – but in this case, the fact is that *Winston* should have talked to Labour earlier if he wanted a clear field.

  28. Marksman33 28
    25 March 2015 at 2:59 pm

    Well, unlike most on here today I get to go down to my local school and cast my vote, as will my wife and my elderly father. All 3 of us have voted Lab or Green all our voting lives. This Saturday will be a first for us, we will be voting Nz 1st.
    I know Winnie has let me down before and could do again, But, I do truly believe he will do a much better job of promoting Northland and the opportunities that abound up here, and thats all we in the Far North ask. As for Osborne, the man’s a halfwit.

  29. Karen 29
    25 March 2015 at 4:38 pm

    TV3 have a Northland poll tonight – and ipredict has Winston at 80%

  31. rawshark-yeshe 31
    25 March 2015 at 6:23 pm

    Paddy Gower has Winston on 54% .. but so important is the fact he shared .. that drilling down into the numbers, 25% of his vote came from National voters .. is that the magic number ?

    Go Winston !

    Also, Winston announced today in Russell his intention to remove name suppression from pedophiles ( and sexual offenders I think) if the victims wished it removed. He said words to the effect to much had gone in secrecy including in Northland .. and there was loud applause from the public around him.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/67503976/nz-first-to-put-forward-bill-stripping-paedophile-name-suppression

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