Te Tai Tokerau
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7:01 pm, June 25th, 2011 - 112 comments
Categories: by-election -
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Te Tai Tokerau includes the North Shore, so there’s been a by-election in my patch today.
I had good fun participating in the Get Out The Vote effort across the Shore with many other friendly volunteers. The polls have just closed, so soon we get to know if the effort we put in today – and over the past few weeks – has managed to get Kelvin over the line. It looks like it’ll be close, but Maori electorates are notoriously difficult to canvas or poll, so no-one’s quite sure.
But now: we just have to sit back and wait. What will happen to Hone’s 6,308 majority?
[99% booths in: Hone 5372 Kelvin 4582 Solomon 1003]
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The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.
1.5% Counted
ALP, Kelvyn OUR 10
DAVIS, Kelvin LAB 497
HARAWIRA, Hone MANA 728
HERBERT, Maki ALCP 13
TIPENE, Solomon MAOR 99
Have to start somewhere 😉
Results are going up really fast already. 8 polling places returned in about 7 minutes since these initial numbers posted.
The big West Auckland, North Shore and Whangarei booths wont come out until later and I suspect that will be where a lot of Kelvins support will lie.
I can’t believe you felt it required to spike the previous uncontentious article, whilst Stuff has this still up
What happened to the post that was up earlier today? It just vanished.
Shame it looked like an interesting one too. I suppose it must have broken some electoral rule.
Maybe Lynn might bring it back, now that the election is over.
it did seem a bit strange, someone must have posted something naughty.
I am more surprised at the edited reposting. Where are the original comments of this post from yesterday? I was looking forward to seeing if there were any responses on my comments about iPredict percentages being discussed throughout the media as if they are some sort of Polling mechanism and not commercially motivated manipulations of data masquerading as representational information.
I will be. A little later, but I have to edit the post and my comments a bit.
I ran afoul of the interpretation of the electoral law by the chief elector because I was writing a post and commenting while I was a scruitineer. Since I was using the cell yesterday, I thought it was wiser to pull the whole post rather than trying to edit the post etc through it..
Didn’t edit it last night because I needed to defrost after the foul weather and let my back uncramp after spending so much time in a plastic chair. In other words I got home and crashed into bed (and got up late this morning).
This afternoon I have been doing some urgent site coding. So this is my first chance through the lower priority items like moderating and reading comments. But shopping will have to come first before I put the post back up. We’re out of some essentials (like coffee)
The count has begun.
http://electionresults.govt.nz/
http://electionresults.govt.nz/electorate-68.html
Still think Kelvin will win. He has mana by the spade.
Solomon Tipene has a good solid background and as a well respected kaumatua still has a lot to offer politics (even at a local body level) and I hope the MP dont drop him like a hot potato.
Well it’s certainly a 2-horse racce & looks like Harawira will take it, I reckon.
looks like about 200 votes in it..
11.2% counted:
ALP, Kelvyn OUR 12
DAVIS, Kelvin LAB 625
HARAWIRA, Hone MANA 841
HERBERT, Maki ALCP 18
TIPENE, Solomon MAOR 135
Candidates
ALP, Kelvyn OUR 12
DAVIS, Kelvin LAB 764
HARAWIRA, Hone MANA 949
HERBERT, Maki ALCP 19
TIPENE, Solomon MAOR 173
ALP, Kelvyn OUR 14
DAVIS, Kelvin LAB 941
HARAWIRA, Hone MANA 1,114
HERBERT, Maki ALCP 23
TIPENE, Solomon MAOR 209
If this goes on I might be eating my words…
Need to wait for the big urban booths Carol. I expect the results so far come from the smaller centres. Can’t make up my mind who I want to win. Part of me wants Hone to win because he’ll keep the pot boiling and that makes for interesting times 😉
Closer than the previous by elections…
21.6% counted
ALP, Kelvyn OUR 14
DAVIS, Kelvin LAB 966
HARAWIRA, Hone MANA 1,168
HERBERT, Maki ALCP 23
TIPENE, Solomon MAOR 223
24.6% Counted
ALP, Kelvyn OUR 14
DAVIS, Kelvin LAB 1,060
HARAWIRA, Hone MANA 1,234
HERBERT, Maki ALCP 27
TIPENE, Solomon MAOR 242
Please stop posting these. People who are interested can look at the site themselves. This is just spam.
Sorry Lanthanide but some of us are enjoying it. It’s fun. Thanks folks and keep at it.
I have no problem with actual discussions, but I think most of us viewing these threads are also looking at the site itself (link was pasted early). We don’t need to see the same numbers in 2 places.
Sure, if big changes take place, that’s worth commenting on. But heaps of updates that show the current trend aren’t interesting.
BTW the percentage count is the percentage of boths counted….not the total number of overall votes counted.
ALP, Kelvyn OUR 14
DAVIS, Kelvin LAB 1,207
HARAWIRA, Hone MANA 1,332
HERBERT, Maki ALCP 30
TIPENE, Solomon MAOR 273
Davis is holding on well. As was said earlier, the big Auclkland electorates will be for Labour, so at the moment I think it’s Labour.
is certainly an interesting race
7 minutes later the gap narrows
ALP, Kelvyn OUR 14
DAVIS, Kelvin LAB 1,207
HARAWIRA, Hone MANA 1,332
HERBERT, Maki ALCP 30
TIPENE, Solomon MAOR 273
Where’s the ACT and National candidates? That’s right – sensible Maori wouldn’t vote for fascist red necks!
Lanthanide
the post says PLEASE POST RESULTS HERE
Yeah, the final results will be posted into the original post by an author.
The comments are for commenting and discussing. You’re not creating any discussions at all, and the numbers you’re posted are quickly outdated.
Have to agree. There’s likely to be alot of comments over the next few hours and trying to keep up with them when they’re interspersed with quickly outdated results will be very annoying.
I think it’s great that people are continuing to post updates as we go along. So what if they appear in several places, in the internet that is known as meme. ie a topic that has caught the imagination of so many that it is repeated all over the place. This is an expression of the interest and the excitement that people here have for this election.
When people start forwarding me stuff several times from different sources I know it is a success. Even if it was stuff I originally forwarded myself.
30% counted.
ALP, Kelvyn OUR 15
DAVIS, Kelvin LAB 1,239
HARAWIRA, Hone MANA 1,396
HERBERT, Maki ALCP 31
TIPENE, Solomon MAOR 277
Davis only 160 behind now, with the big Auckland electorates to come. This could be over – for Hone!
Now only 128 behind
Now Davis is only 128 behind. I’m loving this.
I will take your 118 and lower it to 109
130.
Edit: back to 107.
LOL Lanthanide – is this a ‘if you can’t beat ’em…
I don’t see me copy and pasting the full table of results in that comment, do you?
The results they were pasting were actually the less interesting ones anyway – the top section shows the leader and the margin, as well as % of booths.
I think this is interesting and even if Hone wins in the end, Kelvin has seriously contended this seat.
Yeah, much stronger showing than him than I’d expected.
Might not be over tonight.
The specials may decide this one.
For reference, iPredict contracts close on the preliminary results if they’re beyond doubt, in iPredicts sole judgement.
Otherwise they use official results.
Good point Millsy.
240+ now for Hone. A good booth for him there.
When do you think city booths will come in??
Is their a link to follow the results?
http://electionresults.govt.nz/electorate-68.html
…and refresh to your heart’s content.
http://electionresults.govt.nz/electorate-68.html
cool, thanks for the link.
Hone is going to have some pretty strong booths, which I suspect are the ones we are seeing come in now. But with under 7000 votes counted is is still pretty early for a 300 vote lead to be comfortable!
Do we know the total voters registered and what the turn out is likely to be?
Registered voters is around 33,000 and we might be lucky for a 40% turnout.
Thanks Joel.
Its all over, Hone just got a hell of a lot richer.
Hone 420+, come on Kelvin!
Davis just made up 50 votes….it’s down to the wire.
I think its time to call it, the racist has won.
I didn’t think Don Brash was even standing this time.
LOL what the fuck is the turnout going to be 30% 35% 40%
What a joke. Sooner useless Maori electorates with terrible turnout is removed the better. And if they are to continue then no more simply relying on Maori to enrol in determining the number of seats turnout should matter as well otherwise its just crap.
I share the sentiment but I think Maori should make that decision.
So much for 50% of votes by 8pm…
LOL what the fuck is the turnout going to be 30% 35% 40%
What a joke. Sooner useless Maori electorates with terrible turnout is removed the better.
Hi Gingercrush, perhaps we should also get rid of those useless general electorates with their terrible turnout in by-elections?
Terrible isn’t it.
Go Hone!
Only 40% turn out? with all the publicity??? yeppers that is freakin poor. were they like protest voters, fed up?
Maybe the constant over-the-top Hone-hating, which seems to come principally from wanking, know it all (I suspect Pakeha) like you Brett Dale, maybe that had a significant number of voters in Tai Tokerau say to themselves – “What do you arseholes know ? It’s not even your electorate. Piss off !”
Wouldn’t that be richly poetic ? Mind you, it’s not over yet.
Looks like the Maori Party really shot themselves in the foot. They would’ve been better off not running; now they have the spectre of Mana standing in all their electorates.
Turia would still prefer Harawira than Labour
http://mauistreet.blogspot.com/2011/06/turia-has-mare.html
The Maori Party shot itself in the foot long ago when Pita and Toryana decided to behave like carpetbaggers…………
RECOUNT RECOUNT RECOUNT, What about the hanging chads?
Margin went from 410 to 450 on one of the updates. Think Hone’s won it.
Edit: 500
Yep, more mug the people of Te Tai Tokerau, you get the government
deserve, no sympathy for them.
I’d rather have Mana in the maori electorates, than the MP.
Well if nothing else, its makes for an interesting few months ahead.
And an interesting general election.
I’d love to know where these current votes are coming from as surely its the city booths coming in later?
And if that is the case what does that say about Labour.
Many of the larger places came through earlier (total vote counts jumping 500+) and generally they swung Hone.
Am looking forward to seeing what Hone will do with his mandate, given that no-one will work with him. This whole thing is a big waste of time and money. Nothing will change….
What will change is the Maori Electorates. MP could go from 5 MPs to 2-3 quite easily. That makes a National coalition less likely.
Labour will work with him if it means they get to form a govt. The Greens will work with Mana anyway.
The greens are going to work with a racist and a sexist, yeah they are all class arent they?
Dont put the nacts down like that 😛
The Greens will never work with Don Brash.
Indeed, they won’t, weka. Congratulations, Hone.
Hopefully Mana and the Greens together can drag Labour over to supporting tino rangatiratanga and to opposing the neo-liberal winner takes all and the devil takes the hindmost ideology that Roger Douglas bound the Labour Party into 25 years ago and from which it has never escaped.
They’re getting there toad – with a bit of help from the rank and file. I’m looking to see some major policy shifts when they get around to releasing them. I can assure you we’ve been pushing for it behind the scenes for a long time now.
The Greens shouldn’t work with Key either; both he and Brash of Hollow Men fame were in the great lie pamphlet about Greens 2008 election campaign.
Key is just snakier that Brash, but they’re equally scary arch-Destiny-conservatives.
The Greens are working with Don Brash now, aren’t they? He leads the Act party, which is part of the Government, which whom the Greens have agreed a limited support agreement in order to get some minor policy gains.
A vote for Kelvin is a vote for Goff.
Weep weep weep Brett Dale. Your mouth caused this so I’d zip it if I were you. Arrogant fool !
Congratulations Hone.
Better get some rest tomorrow. Your November campaign starts on Monday.
But he has no time to rest, if he’s to get all the unemployed in Northland into jobs by Xmas, as he promised on Radio Live the other day. Mind you, that was right before he verbally abused Davis for quite reasonably questioning how that was possible, so perhaps instead he should be asking his mummy what to do next….
Yeah, Im no fan of Hone either, but I cannot help but respect a guy who tore up his own politcal obituary.
Yeah but it sure makes the general election just that little bit scarier for the MP and the Nats, but could be fun Hone against Brashula.
With how utterly useless Labour have been getting Maori to vote, 2011 election should be easier for us on the right. No doubt they’ll be absolutely useless again getting South Aucklanders to vote as well.
I think you will find the imminent threat of mass evictions from the Housing NZ estates (and their subsequent transfer to Salvation Army, IHC, Te Waipaerewa Trust, etc) in South Auckland imputeus enough for people to get out there. The only question being if Labour is prepared to pull its finger out and fight for the social program that it started in response to the Auckland rack renters, slumlords and grotty boarding houses in the 20’s and 30’s.
Much much tighter than I expected. Currently 47.9% vs 41.1% with 97.8% polling places returned. Tipene is on 9.1%.
So that phone poll was 41/40/15. Looks like the 6% from MP went to Hone instead. So the poll didn’t look too far off. Very low turnout though (roughly 33%) so the poll may not really coincide with people that actually voted.
Is it just my Maths, or has Hone managed to decrease his majority by 90% ?
Your maths is correct, but your stats (that is, the interpretation of the maths), is off.
The turnout in this byelection was much lower than the general election, so the majority was always expected to be smaller.
This is probably a lot closer than they were anticipating, though.
Chess Player,
I read you as a capitalist so your maths ability probably does suck.
Why quibble about the majority – a win is a win is a win.
Not to quibble with your maths, but Hone won 48%. A plurality. Not a majority.
Zetetic, considering the huge amount of money, resources and time that the Labour Party put into this by-election against a party that had no funding. I would like to predict that in the general election later this year when the Labour Party machine is stretched much thinner, and the Mana Party has won it’s funding allocation, Harawira’s plurality will be turned back into an absolute majority.
Betcha I’m right.
Over a thousand specials to be counted yet. It might be a long shot but Hone could still get his 50%.
considering the huge amount of money, resources and time that the Labour Party put into this by-election…
That’s an exaggeration Jenny. The Labour Party does not have huge amounts of money and huge resources. They have operated most of their political life on a shoe-string budget. They may have had a tad more money and personnel than Hone’s new political party does at this point in time, but that’s the difference between a political party that is only a few months old and one that has been going for ninety years. What was Labour to do? Sit on their chuffs and say “nah… can’t be bothered to run a candidate in TTT” like the genuinely wealthy Nats did? I can imagine the carry-on here and elsewhere if they had..
Interestingly, there were 342 polling places in TTT at the 2008 general election and only 134 this time. Further to travel to vote won’t help turnout.
Puddleglum,
That’s interesting; who organized both?
Fewer polling places in by-elections may be ‘normal’ (it sort of pre-guesses low turnout, of course – self-fulfilling prophecy, etc.). What took me by surprise was the size of the ‘gap’ between numbers of polling booths from the election to the by-election.
In answer to your question, I presume (hope) both were organised by the electoral commission and its proxies (or whatever its official name is).
Tks for that, Puddleglum.
the reason is that at general election, every polling place in each general electorate will have a booth for the overlapping Maori electorate. Which makes sense, of course. You can’t have polling places that can’t take Maori votes. Particularly no extra cost – you just have one set of polling staff doing both general and Maori votes.
But in an election just for the Maori seat, would be massive overkill to have so many polling places. Even 134 is a huge number but justified by size of electorate. Botany had 24.
24 of the polling places had 20 or fewer votes. One had none. I don’t think lack of polling places was an issue.
Thanks Zetetic, that all makes sense.