The latest polls

Written By: - Date published: 6:24 pm, September 17th, 2014 - 92 comments
Categories: election 2014 - Tags:

Two polls are out today, a Roy Morgan and a 3news Reid Research.  Both are predicting National to be well ahead of Labour although the figures are much closer than they were last time.

The RM poll has Labour (23.5%) and the Greens ((14.5%) slipping back and National up to 46.5%.  In the equivalent RM poll last election National was on 49.5% and ended on 47.3%.

The Reid Research will make National’s eyes water.  It had them down to 44.5%.  Remember last time the equivalent RR poll overestimated National’s support by 3.5% points.

And last time RM underestimated Labour’s result by 4% points and RR by 1.5% points.

New Zealand First is strong in both polls and the Greens are doing well although both polls overestimated Green support last time.

Last time the turnout was down in part I am sure because everyone thought that it was a foregone conclusion.  This time we have to make sure that everyone gets out to vote.  I am sure that the polls under reports Labour’s support at the same time that I am sure that a low turnout hurts Labour’s support.  The higher the turnout the greater the difference between Labour’s polling and Labour’s actual result.

It seems likely that New Zealand First will hold the balance of power.  If the Conservatives get over 5% of the vote then it may be that Key will be able to cobble a coalition together and not depend on New Zealand First’s support.  It will also be very scary.  There are some distinctly weird people on the Conservative Party’s list and the thought of them being in Parliament is worrying.

This election will be won vote by vote.  No matter if your preference is Labour or Green or Mana if you want to change the Government the best thing that you can do for your country is make sure that you get as many people as possible to vote.

92 comments on “The latest polls ”

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  1. JRT 1
    17 September 2014 at 6:39 pm

    Fingers crossed that if the Conservatives get across the line, National’s support has dropped so far it still won’t be enough. I’m not sure how early voting is going to affect the accuracy of these last polls though, as a large percentage of the population has already voted and these polls will only reflect the views of the people yet to vote.

  2. Ant 2
    17 September 2014 at 6:42 pm

    It must be 300,000 or so early votes counting today, pretty insane.

    It will be interesting to see if pissed off and polarised lefties tilt the turnout figures in any way.

  3. JRT 3
    17 September 2014 at 6:43 pm

    Also of interest, the TV3 poll is the most current, they polled between 9-15 September while Roy Morgan polled between 1-14 September.

  4. NZSage 4
    17 September 2014 at 6:52 pm

    I would not be surprised in the slightest if these polls prove to be wildly out.

    Oh the joy if they are, not only the demise of National but proof the whole polling process needs transforming.

    • AsleepWhileWalking 4.1
      17 September 2014 at 8:19 pm

      In Not the Six O’clock News Laila said the poll for Hone’s electorate (where a large proportion of voters don’t have landlines) showed he would struggle to win. This was also at odds with the Lolly poll, while Mana’s own poll (without landline bias) showed Hone a clear winner.

    • word 4.2
      18 September 2014 at 1:12 am

      +1 Totally agree NZSage.

      • Colonial Viper 4.2.1
        18 September 2014 at 1:35 am

        several major polls were accurate to +/- 3% in 2011. Which is about what they promised.

      • dave 4.2.2
        18 September 2014 at 10:13 pm

        yes it would great shove there polls even better to shove national anyone keen head to john keys house on election night to rub in thee lose

  5. Jenk 5
    17 September 2014 at 6:58 pm

    And will Labour’s turn-out-the-vote strategy make a difference this time ? Fingers crossed.

  6. swordfish 6
    17 September 2014 at 7:01 pm

    (1) It’s crucial for the Left that Colin Craig’s Conservatives don’t cross the threshold. Otherwise it’s all over rover.

    (2) I hope we don’t come to regret Advance Voting. If we are, indeed, witnessing a genuine swing away from the Nats in the polls, and one that may intensify this week …..but a third of the electorate having already voted !

    (3) One will set out one’s predictions on one’s blog Thurs night or Fri morning. (After some frenzied work on the calculator). But I’ll include enough provisos to cover my ass (or protect my buttocks, as we non-Americans would say).

    [lprent: So polite. Generally I say “cover my butt” or “cover my arse” ]

    • JRT 6.1
      17 September 2014 at 7:07 pm

      Colin Craig reckons he’s seen polls that have him at 5.5%, he’s looking pretty confident. Though John Key wasn’t pushing him tonight, just saying to people not to try and vote in coalition partners and to give the vote to National so maybe their polling is showing that Craig’s support may not be enough. Neither of these polls factor in the spying scandal though, what that is doing to people’s voting intentions is unknown.

      • Granted 6.1.1
        18 September 2014 at 2:22 pm

        Where do these other polls come from that Craig refers to. Surely he is making such statements to convince voters that voting for his party is not a wasted vote??

    • weka 6.2
      17 September 2014 at 7:37 pm

      “(1) It’s crucial for the Left that Colin Craig’s Conservatives don’t cross the threshold. Otherwise it’s all over rover.”

      Not sure about that. Can’t check because the calculator is down, but doesn’t it depend on the Māori seats, ACT and UF too?

      • ghostwhowalksnz 6.2.1
        17 September 2014 at 7:56 pm

        Absolutely, Act , UF and Maori party will all most be overhang seats.

        In total % they could be say 2.2% which would be 2 MPs, but winning seats could mean they are 4 MPs.

        Act and UF could be 1% in total, while MP is 1.2%. The two extra seats gives Key enough to form a government if it is very close

        • weka 6.2.1.1
          17 September 2014 at 8:13 pm

          possible result with CC on 5%, no UF or ACT and the right still not getting enough to form govt without Peters. I dropped National to 42.5 though.

          • Lanthanide 6.2.1.1.1
            17 September 2014 at 8:20 pm

            You’re missing 4.5% of the vote, which is quite a lot. And by giving Maori Party 0%, you create an overhang of 1 seat.

            Hence why I suggest starting with iPredict numbers.

            • Tangled_up 6.2.1.1.1.1
              17 September 2014 at 8:35 pm

              The ‘party votes won’ column doesn’t include the party votes from the parties that did not cross the threshold and didn’t win an electorate.

              • Lanthanide …
                17 September 2014 at 8:39 pm

                Yes, I know, but even going with iPredicts numbers for the party votes that weka didn’t include, that adds up to 3.2% of the vote. So weka’s numbers missing 4.5% is quite ‘far off’ a likely outcome.

                • weka …
                  17 September 2014 at 8:48 pm

                  yeah sorry, I was in a hurry. What’s the usual numer of ‘other’ votes?

                  I don’t want to start with someone else’s numbers. I want the actual percentages. I don’t think ipredict gives those, does it?

                  Edit, just seen more % down the page. But I still don’t know what I am looking. Whose numbers are all these?

                  I agree the graphics are nice. Maybe by next election the election calculator will be in the 21st century.

                  • Lanthanide …
                    17 September 2014 at 8:55 pm

                    They’re the numbers from iPredict.

                    Now, I am not saying they are gospel and should be relied upon. What I am saying is that these numbers are likely to be more accurate than any single poll, or even the poll of polls, which routinely over-sample National and under-sample NZFirst.

                    Daryl’s corrected polls at Dimpost would probably be the best to use.

                    The other good part about the iPredict numbers is that they have some measure of polling on the electorate seats, eg Ohariu, Epsom and the Maori seats, where the typical newspaper/TV polls simply don’t and make silly assumptions like the MP are going to win 3 seats when no one outside of the MP thinks that is a likely outcome.

                    • weka …
                      17 September 2014 at 9:02 pm

                      I’m not really trying to predict anything. I’m just trying to demonstrate that we really have no idea whenever someone makes a statement such as if CC gets ver 5% we’re fucked. It all depends on many variables.

                      Does ipredict adjust for landline issues in the Māori seats? To me, those seats are the wild cards, because most Pākehā media doesn’t follow Māori politics.

                    • Lanthanide …
                      17 September 2014 at 9:09 pm

                      Yeah, but you’re trying to demonstrate possible outcomes, they need to be calculated to match reality as much as possible, which means getting vote totals to match as much as possible.

                      iPredict is not a polling service, it’s a market where anyone can spend some money to make a bet on the outcome of an event. Prior to the last election, iPredict was streets ahead of the various polls in terms of accuracy, because the figures on iPredict are the view of the market, created by many (generally right-leaning) points of view to take into account all possible evidence, not just single polls.

                      That’s why on iPredict, National has always been lower than the figure returned by MSM polling, because people on iPredict know the polls has a bias in favour of National.

                    • weka …
                      17 September 2014 at 9:20 pm

                      Sure, but then how much of the 2011 election result was a result of the MSM saying beforehand that National would win, it was a done deal? Kind of self-fullfilling prophecy from ipredict. If I thought it was independent and unbiased I might be more inclined to trust it.

                      Point taken about my numbers. Next time I’ll take the time to get all the %s in there.

      • Lanthanide 6.2.2
        17 September 2014 at 8:01 pm

        This, powered by iPredict, is the best visualisation of the election outcomes: http://www.electionresults.co.nz/

        Because it takes into account likely electorate seats, MP on 1, whereas the MSM polls generally show MP winning 3 seats, even though that’s quite unlikely. You can also easily see which block can form a government: if the black encroaches onto the right, Labour can win with NZ First, if the light blue encroaches onto the left, National can win without NZFirst.

        When it has conservatives at 5%, the right block ends up with 61 or 62 seats, occasionally 63. And that’s with the MP appearing in the left block.

        • weka 6.2.2.1
          17 September 2014 at 8:07 pm

          I prefer this because it lets me put in different options rather than something Hooton set up telling what it wants to.

          http://www.elections.org.nz//voting-system/mmp-voting-system/mmp-seat-allocation-calculator

          • Lanthanide 6.2.2.1.1
            17 September 2014 at 8:15 pm

            Yes, I’m not suggesting this instead of the calculator, but rather as a starting point for your numbers, instead of using the raw poll results, since the polls don’t take into account electorate seats but iPredict does.

            Also if you just want to ‘eye-ball’ the potential election outcome, I think iPredict is better than the published polls because it is trying to take account of polling bias, eg right now National is at 45.5%, not 47%+ like polls are saying (earlier in the week they were around 44%).

          • AsleepWhileWalking 6.2.2.1.2
            17 September 2014 at 8:23 pm

            Cheers, just what I was looking for.

    • Lanthanide 6.3
      17 September 2014 at 7:57 pm

      “(2) I hope we don’t come to regret Advance Voting. If we are, indeed, witnessing a genuine swing away from the Nats in the polls, and one that may intensify this week …..but a third of the electorate having already voted !”

      iPredict says that advance voting in 2011 leaned towards National more than the general results on the day. But in 2011, advance voting was only for people who weren’t able to vote on the day. This year it’s available for everyone and it looks like we’re at 3x the rate of the past election. Given Labour’s focus on getting out the vote, I think it’s reasonable to assume Labour has been getting out their vote, and having 2 weeks to do that gives much greater penetration than a single day.

      However the weather on Saturday is supposed to be snowy and rainy so it might all be moot anyway.

    • Tracey 6.4
      17 September 2014 at 8:34 pm

      Looking forward to it fish

  7. Jim Nald 7
    17 September 2014 at 7:22 pm

    Watching Leaders Debate.
    Many in my whanau voted for Nats in 2008.
    They are not voting for Nats this week.
    John Key looking and sounding terrible. Bye Bye Johnny.

  8. Ross 8
    17 September 2014 at 7:30 pm

    I think it will be fairly close. If National reaches 44 or 45%, it might not be enough if ACT or UF don’t make it.

    • AsleepWhileWalking 8.1
      17 September 2014 at 8:26 pm

      It would be a happy day if UF and ACT split the votes enough that another party won the seat. I think at this point anything is possible especially if there is one more crisis to the right in the lead up from hell ha ha ha.

    • Tracey 8.2
      17 September 2014 at 8:36 pm

      Those Nats in Epsom who were thinking of not voting for Seymour may have last minute wobbles and vote that way to save John… I hope they dont…. but self interest abides in the olde towne of Epsom

  9. weka 9
    17 September 2014 at 7:34 pm

    Elections calculator as just gone offline.

    edit, back now. Maybe server overload

    edit, back but not working

  10. Sable 10
    17 September 2014 at 7:35 pm

    You have to wonder about the mentality of your average Kiwi if they think another 3 years of these shady clowns is a good idea.

    • weka 10.1
      17 September 2014 at 7:43 pm

      only 1/3 of enrolled voters voted National last time. Not sure if that counts as average kiwi.

      • Sable 10.1.1
        17 September 2014 at 7:45 pm

        Yes I know. Approx 1M did not vote.

        Still seems to me people are either easily misled or maybe they just don’t care about each other anymore…

        • adam 10.1.1.1
          17 September 2014 at 10:16 pm

          Yes and no, there has been a deliberate programme to make people not vote. Chris Hedges, Noam Chomsky, and now our Nicky Hager expose this method of manipulation.

          There’s an old adage – *whilst we have a democracy, people should not be encouraged to vote for their interests, lest they upset the order of things*

    • Liberal Realist 10.2
      17 September 2014 at 8:41 pm

      +1

      I struggle to understand how intelligent, generally decent people will still vote National? Even after all that we have seen?

      Speaking with several of my colleagues recently I touched on the election as to, in a subtle way, see which way they lean politically.

      In all three cases, each individual expressed negativity toward Labour along the lines of: “Cunliffe is a dick?”, “Cunliffe is a bit of a loser isn’t he?” & “Cunliffe, isn’t he a bit dodgy?”. When I asked each of these individuals why they thought this about DC/Labour, they had no answer or said they had ‘seen something on TV’.

      IMO is the damaging effect of #DirtyPolitics & this is why there is still a strong possibility that NAct could win a third term. Scary stuff indeed.

      • Tom Jackson 10.2.1
        17 September 2014 at 10:19 pm

        I struggle to understand how intelligent, generally decent people will still vote National?

        The answer is that they don’t. Many of them don’t think very deeply about politics and economics and buy the simpleton’s view of it that National deals in. Many are authoritarians and see National as the rightful authority which must be supported come what may. A smaller number are outright douchebags who like the idea of an unfair society or are morally impaired in some other respect.

        I spent a long time trying to be fair minded and assuming that there were these decent people who voted for National. The problem is that I never met any. Every tory voter I’ve ever met is either ignorant, a wanker, or an ignorant wanker. They’re rather like conservative intellectuals: a mostly mythical species whose description never matches the reality. It’s like conservative political philosophy: it always turns out to be superficial, nonsensical bullshit that only a cretin could fall for.

        I don’t see any reason to keep pretending. Neither should you.

        • Jepenseque 10.2.1.1
          17 September 2014 at 10:48 pm

          Hi folks

          I care deeply about politics I’m voting national for a few simple reasons

          -Bill English – steady hand on the finance tiller, unsung hero of raising the “productivity” of state spending. Targeting outcomes rather than $$ spent (in simple terms).
          -Steven Joyce – just a good operator, keen on detail. That is all.
          -Anne Tolley – Despite some people view of Nats being hardline law and order there has been a big focus on and improvement of rehabilitation.

          -Roadbuilding
          -Oil exploration
          -Pro immigration
          -Focus on fixing land supply (leaving aside the nonsensical new home buyers bribe thing).
          -They won’t wreck the electricity market
          -Trade agreements

          All to lift economic performance, to get the social outcomes we all want.

          -Fundamentally I prefer a smaller government, and lower taxes so that we ourselves can get on and build things for our communities and families.

          Cheers

          • DS 10.2.1.1.2
            18 September 2014 at 1:05 am

            >-Anne Tolley – Despite some people view of Nats being hardline law and order there has been a big focus on and improvement of rehabilitation.

            I can understand liking English, but Tolley? To paraphrase Blackadder, the woman is as thick as a whale omelet.

            • Jepenseque 10.2.1.1.2.1
              18 September 2014 at 7:39 am

              Hi there, don’t know her IQ or EQ but the departments rehabilitation focus under her watch seem to be better than under previous governments, deserves credit for that.

          • Colonial Viper 10.2.1.1.3
            18 September 2014 at 1:51 am

            -Fundamentally I prefer a smaller government, and lower taxes so that we ourselves can get on and build things for our communities and families.

            Which is a silly framing on your part IMO, because (ideally) government is led, staffed and run by ordinary Kiwis -the very same people that we grew up with and know from day to day life- who are indeed getting on with building things and providing citizens for our regions and communities.

            They’re not Kiwis any different from us mate.

            • Jepenseque 10.2.1.1.3.1
              18 September 2014 at 7:44 am

              Hi, I agree with you on the people side of things. What I was more referring to is in a lower tax/smaller government environment people and communities have more scope to do things. Like start a business, fund an NGO or community group.

              If the government solution to whatever problem we are talking about is the only game in town then I think that is risky and less effective.

        • tc 10.2.1.2
          18 September 2014 at 6:33 am

          Agree and heres an example. Last month a few I meet on the trails who are right were genuinely concerned about the lower levels currently being trodden down further by bennett and shonkey.

          When pointed out who the parties serious about it with published policies were the responses were ‘yeah but they are all the same’ and anything but vote for them.

          The dog whistling and dirty politics have done as designed, plenty can see how bad the media is but refuse to seek broader inputs and keep consuming the MSM trash.

  11. Pete 11
    17 September 2014 at 7:41 pm

    I really think we may have a “Dewey defeats Truman” election on our hands. Turnout is so important. It’s a pity the weather forecast for the weekend isn’t so great.

  12. sockpuppet 12
    17 September 2014 at 7:48 pm

    This entire election campaign has become so bloody surreal I wouldn’t be surprised if a flying saucer lands in parliament grounds and out comes Elvis.

    • DS 12.1
      17 September 2014 at 8:05 pm

      … who then proceeds to sue at least one major party for copyright infringement.

      • mac1 12.1.1
        17 September 2014 at 8:39 pm

        The real question is what song of Elvis Presley’s did John Key choose as his swan song. Was it:
        I Got Stung
        Now and Then There’s a Fool Such as I
        Any Way You Want me
        King Keyhole
        Blue Hawaii
        Return To Sender
        It’s Now or Never
        Puppet on a String
        Johnny B Good
        There Goes My Everything (Knighthood included)
        The Fool
        I Washed My hands in Muddy Waters
        I, John.

        And the people’s vote is…………………..

        I’m Left, You’re Right, She’s Gone (sorry, that’s Judith Collins)

        And the people’s vote is…….

        Put the Blame on Me.

  13. AsleepWhileWalking 13
    17 September 2014 at 8:29 pm

    Does anyone think that the Greens will win a seat this time? I only ask because in the local body elections they did particularly well.

  14. infused 14
    17 September 2014 at 8:34 pm

    There are some distinctly weird people on the Green Party’s list and the thought of them being in Parliament is worrying.

    Fixed for what most people in NZ are thinking.

    • Lanthanide 14.1
      17 September 2014 at 8:40 pm

      No, ‘most’ people are thinking “Gosh, I like that nice man Mr Key”.

      • Local Kiwi 14.1.1
        17 September 2014 at 10:16 pm

        Key looks old tired and haggard.

        He knows that after the election he will be hounded further and more rot will appear.

        he has lost his “brighter future” Eh!

        • weka 14.1.1.1
          17 September 2014 at 10:41 pm

          I agree, even if he wins after Sat he’s not going to have an easy term.

          • McFlock 14.1.1.1.1
            17 September 2014 at 11:41 pm

            nah – he’ll quite as soon as he can after the election, I reckon.

            • weka 14.1.1.1.1.1
              18 September 2014 at 12:03 am

              wouldn’t surprise me. not sure how he would do that though. “Ok, so I’m outta here” *smiles and waves*.

              • McFlock …
                18 September 2014 at 12:29 am

                well, if he loses he’ll quit on the night, otherwise I reckon putting together a coalition and then plugging personal reasons, hanging around to watch the cabinet shitfight that will determine who catches the golden turd. First half of next year maybe. I doubt he’d see close to 2016 as pm

      • Beryl Streep 14.1.2
        17 September 2014 at 11:25 pm

        >No, ‘most’ people are thinking “Gosh, I like that nice man Mr Key”.

        Wasn’t that the excuse du jour for National winning the election six years ago?

        I was hoping that people had moved on from blaming the voters after all these years. Nope, here we are six years later and it’s groundhog day again.

    • Tom Jackson 14.2
      17 September 2014 at 10:25 pm

      I guess you prefer the guy who (a) thinks it reasonable to suppose that the moon landings were faked; and (b) doesn’t possess enough nous to stop himself from declaring this belief in public, despite seeking elected office.

  15. Blue 15
    17 September 2014 at 8:46 pm

    Act have decided they won’t work with NZ First:

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11326574

    Looks like Craig’s Crazies are moving into pole position.

    A lot is going to depend on Epsom, Ohariu, and whether NZ First and the Conservatives make it over the 5% threshold.

    This election certainly isn’t going to be boring.

    • Lanthanide 15.1
      17 September 2014 at 8:51 pm

      He added that most current polling — the majority of which has Act at less than 1 per cent — was wrong.

      “On some Chinese website polls Act is in second place, ahead of Labour. We’ve used the internet to poll and so we know that the landline polls are wrong, as all the landline polls are different and the differences are greater than the margin of error.

      “Act’s polling shows that 11 per cent of New Zealanders supports Act’s message of low-tax, less regulation and more personal responsibility.”

      Hahaha.

  16. Vaughan little 16
    17 September 2014 at 8:53 pm

    lanthanide: in 2011 anybody could vote early. this time round there might be changes in publicity and number of early polling stations. you’d have to ask someone who campaigned in both elections. also it might be taking a few elections for the voting culture to change.

    • Lanthanide 16.1
      17 September 2014 at 9:01 pm

      As I understand it, you had to have a “reason why you couldn’t vote on election day” to vote early in 2011. Of course it’s not like you have to provide concrete proof about it, but the point was early voting was somewhat discouraged. This time, it is actively encouraged.

  17. North 17
    17 September 2014 at 8:53 pm

    ‘Dewey v Truman’ has occupied my mind frequently of late. In the old days of 1948 the Chicago whatever it was called newspaper had its type press all prepared to yell out “Dewey Wins”. In fact I think they even published. No. Truman won.

    The position in New Zealand at least for the past six years has been that the MSM has unabashedly danced its John Key dance. Answering their own fragile vanities essentially. Slavishly hitching their wagons to their notion of the brightest star. In measure a star of their creation. That has had its consequence……polls etc.

    This is a very different election however…….probably unprecedented in New Zealand history. Don’t be surprised if there’s a ‘Dewey v Truman’ outcome.

    Final point……what monstrous cheek for anyone to carry on about ‘foreign influence’ in this election. John Key’s government is entirely predicated on foreign influence. And he’s in its thrall. He is not ‘at the end of the day’ a New Zealander. He’s a New York banker. And we all know what lying, entitled, selfish, conniving aresholes they are.

    The extraordinary level of early voting can’t be for that, surely ?

    • ghostwhowalksnz 17.1
      17 September 2014 at 9:43 pm

      The headline was Dewey Defeats Truman and went out in the 150,000 copies of the early edition before results came in from East coast ( different time zones).
      The second edition was changed to Democrats sweep statewide offices as it seemed the national results would be close.
      The polls had predicted Gov Dewey would win and the Chicago Tribune was an arch conservative paper, so fitted their preconceived ideas.

      No one would have remembered one edition of the paper, except 2 days later Truman was handed a copy in St Louis, and photographers got the famous picture.
      The details are from the CT website.

    • Local Kiwi 17.2
      17 September 2014 at 10:23 pm

      Brilliant North,
      “MSM has unabashedly danced its John Key dance. Answering their own fragile vanities essentially. Slavishly hitching their wagons to their notion of the brightest star. In measure a star of their creation.”

      That has had its consequence……polls etc.

      that was extremely delicious to read.

      You have a great command of oratory speech.

      They should have used you for crafting David Cunliffe’s speeches.

      Great work North.

  18. vto 18
    17 September 2014 at 8:56 pm

    On the day Key announced Sept 20 as election day I said watch for stormy September and lookey at what we gonna get (most places) ………

    better hope voters like getting wet and cold ..

  19. GRiM 19
    17 September 2014 at 10:29 pm

    Well this just blows Nat’s foreign interferrence talking point to pieces:

    http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/national/australian-liberals-weigh-into-nz-election/story-fnjbnvyj-1227061187532

    snippet:
    AUSTRALIA’S Liberal Party federal director Brian Loughnane has become involved in the New Zealand election, encouraging Kiwis in Australia to help re-elect John Key’s National government,…………

    More than 640,000 New Zealand citizens are in Australia, representing a large proportion of the NZ electorate.

  20. Ad 20
    18 September 2014 at 5:24 am

    Well it’s not boring is it?

  21. Leroy 21
    18 September 2014 at 6:35 am

    If you look back at an analyse the polls since 2002 they have been getting less and less accurate. They were pretty much bang on in 2002, out by 2% for both major parties in 2005, out by 3-4% in 2008 and by 5-7% in 2011.

    The Roy Morgan one you quote Mickey was the last one RM did 2-3 days before the 2011 election. I assume they will put another one out this Friday & that is the one that had National on 49.5 in 2011, but also had Labour at 23.5. You should really compare today’s Roy Morgan poll, which was for the period 1-14 Sep with the second to last one they did in 2011, which was for the period 7-18 November.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2011

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2014

    The results are:

    Labour
    RM 2011 – 24.5
    RM 2014 – 24

    Greens
    RM 2011 – 13
    RM 2014 – 13.5

    Internet Mana
    RM 2011- 1
    RM 2014 – 1

    Left
    RM 2011 – 38.5
    RM 2014 – 38.5

    NZ first
    RM 2011 – 3
    RM 2014 – 8

    National
    RM 2011 – 53
    RM 2014 – 46.5

    Act
    RM 2011 – 1.5
    RM 2014 – 0.5

    MP
    RM 2011 – 3
    RM 201 – 1.5

    UF
    RM 2011 – 0
    RM 2014 – 0.5

    Conservatives
    RM 2011 – 0
    RM 2014 – 3.5

    Now, If you average every single poll of the main 5 (Fairfax, Herald, Colmar Brunton, Reid Research & Roy Morgan) since the 2011 election until now you get the following below. I’ve also included in brackets if the same drop/increase on election night occurred this year that did in 2011 then that its most likely what the part would get this year.

    Labour 30.65 (27.26)
    Greens 12.18 (14.93)
    Internet Mana 2.05 (2.49)
    Left 44.88 (44.68)

    National 47.10 (41.77 – this would still be the 3rd highest result a party has ever got, higher then Labour has ever achieved)
    ACT .50
    UF .30
    MP 1.35 (0.55)
    Conservatives 1.80 (3.21)
    Right 51.05 (46.33)

    So if you exclude Conservatives as they have not hot the 5%, then the right reduce to 43.12 vs. left on 44.68.

    As a political scientist the two key stats (excuse the pun) are:

    1. Left vs Right
    If you average every single poll of the main 5 (Fairfax, Herald, Colmar Brunton, Reid Research & Roy Morgan) from 2005-2008 it had the left averaging 43.5 and final results were 41.62. The right in 2005-2008 averaged 52.2 and got 51.84
    If you look at 2008-2011, the left averaged 39.82 and they got 39.62. From 2008-2011, the right averaged 58.23 and got 52.85.
    As at today, the ave in every singe poll for the right (includes conservatives) is 51.05 and the left is 44.88 – in other words, the gap in the polls has reduced from 18.41 to in the 2011 election to 6.17.

    2. Labour plus Greens vs National
    If you average every single poll of the main 5 (Fairfax, Herald, Colmar Brunton, Reid Research & Roy Morgan) from 2005-2008 it had the L&G averaging 43.2 and final results were 40.71. National in 2005-2008 averaged 47.72 and got 44.93
    If you look at 2008-2011, L&G averaged 39.18 and they got 38.54. National 2008-2011, averaged 52.64 and got 47.3.
    As at today, the ave in every singe poll for L&G is 43.09 and National 47.10. In other words, the aver gap of the polls between L&G vs National is now 4.01 vs. 13.46 in 2008-2011.

    Lastly,if Conservatives do get in, Nats & the 5 headed monster will be on 59/60 so will still need nz first.

    My pick – voter turnout about 80% and L, G & NZ First to goven and one of the most popular PMs NZ has had will not get 3 terms (note, every National PM since 1950 has got 3 terms).

  22. Sanctuary 22
    18 September 2014 at 7:25 am

    I think it is incredible that opinion polls continued to be released after early voting commenced, given how heavy early voting has been. It is something that is to have to be addressed after this election.

    Personally, if we had spent the last two weeks without any polls I wouldn’t have minded.

    • vto 22.1
      18 September 2014 at 7:49 am

      Agree. Polls need to be banned before an election. It is about the only thing I agree with Winston Peters on … speaking of which I hold little hope of the next government being stable with that cretin in there. He will fuck it up just like he always has in the past

      • wtl 22.1.1
        18 September 2014 at 8:31 am

        I just heard Guyon Espiner on the RadioNZ interviewing a polling ‘expert’. It was a particular bad interview in my opinion because Espiner seemed asking rather leading questions – Espiner was saying that the polls are largely right and asking the interviewee to agree with him.

        Whatever you think about the polls or their accuracy, I thought it was a particular irresponsible interview to do two days out from election day because the underlying subtext is that the result is already determined (as shown by the polls) so it doesn’t matter if you vote or not. It would have been much better for the interview to have ended with a note telling everyone they must vote because whatever the polls say, only the actual election matters in the end.

  23. wtl 23
    18 September 2014 at 8:26 am

    I think that if even if National manages to hobble together a coalition with the Conservatives, there is a very distinct possibility that the government will not last the full term – whatever you think about the policies of the Conservatives, having a party with no previous experience (even in parliament) being part of government is not a good idea.

  24. aerobubble 24
    18 September 2014 at 11:11 am

    So let’s see. We have all these apps, gps, and people. So can people with an app stop other people in the street, ask them who they are favoring in their electorate and which on the party list? Collate all that data and we would not rely on the phone bias, and the people can poll themselves! Maybe even explain why voting the same party and politician can be half a vote, as the party percentage creeps up and loses effectiveness when the electorate is won. How stupid is that? That you vote Labour in both electorate and party, then you find that say a independent wins the electorate and you get twice the representation! Greens get this, they vote Labour or National in the electorate and get an extra MP in the Green Party list.

    Labour used to understand this, they had the progressive party to counter the ACT.

  25. Chooky 25
    18 September 2014 at 2:03 pm

    ‘Final prediction on election result 2014’

    By Martyn Bradbury / September 18, 2014

    “Despite the mainstream media polls that have screamed National will win by a 50% landslide for 3 years, this election was always going to go right down to the wire, and it will…

    – See more at: http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/09/18/final-prediction-on-election-result-2014/#sthash.yUG7Tmci.dpuf