The risk of climate tipping points is upon us
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- Date published:
1:20 pm, December 6th, 2019 - 82 comments
Categories: climate change, science -
Tags: climate tipping points
Last week 7 senior climate scientists warned:
— Extinction Rebellion UK 🌍 (@XRebellionUK) December 5, 2019
"The evidence from tipping points alone suggests that we are in a state of planetary emergency."#TellTheTruth #GE2019 #bbcqt #BBCQuestionTime @bbcquestiontimehttps://t.co/mgBWMsTdeu pic.twitter.com/91rC35NA8B
TL;DR
- the IPCC was for many years too conservative in its predictions and position around tipping points.
- current science is suggesting a likelihood of reaching catastrophic tipping points much sooner than expected
- if we keep doing what we are doing, we can expect tipping points to be reached and climate catastrophe
- some economists are still operating on the old IPCC assumptions and think there is a cost/benefit to be had around climate action because there is little risk
- current nation state pledges will give us 3C warming
- to avoid tipping points and catastrophe “warming must be limited to 1.5 °C. This requires an emergency response”
The longer version from the Nature commentary piece,
Politicians, economists and even some natural scientists have tended to assume that tipping points1 in the Earth system — such as the loss of the Amazon rainforest or the West Antarctic ice sheet — are of low probability and little understood. Yet evidence is mounting that these events could be more likely than was thought, have high impacts and are interconnected across different biophysical systems, potentially committing the world to long-term irreversible changes.
Here we summarize evidence on the threat of exceeding tipping points, identify knowledge gaps and suggest how these should be plugged. We explore the effects of such large-scale changes, how quickly they might unfold and whether we still have any control over them.
In our view, the consideration of tipping points helps to define that we are in a climate emergency and strengthens this year’s chorus of calls for urgent climate action — from schoolchildren to scientists, cities and countries.
…
Some scientists counter that the possibility of global tipping remains highly speculative. It is our position that, given its huge impact and irreversible nature, any serious risk assessment must consider the evidence, however limited our understanding might still be. To err on the side of danger is not a responsible option.
If damaging tipping cascades can occur and a global tipping point cannot be ruled out, then this is an existential threat to civilization. No amount of economic cost–benefit analysis is going to help us. We need to change our approach to the climate problem.
Full article with the science is here.
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- Only the Greens will deliver a fair amnesty for overstayersThe Green Party is today welcoming Labour coming to the table to ensure an amnesty for overstayers, but only the Greens will ensure immigration settings actually reflect the reality of people who have been failed by our immigration system. ...6 days ago
- Climate future of communities on the line this electionGreen Party co leader James Shaw attended a South Dunedin Future street meeting today to discuss local responses to climate change. ...6 days ago
- Green Party calls for stronger action by Auckland Council to protect urban trees and native forestThe Green Party is calling on Auckland Council to do more to protect urban trees and housing developer Aedifice Property Group to restore and replant the native forest it cleared, and protect all the remaining trees on Ngahere Road in Pukekohe after a significant number of native trees were cut ...7 days ago
- Release: Ram Raids drop to two-year lowLatest Police data shows monthly ram raids have hit a two-year low, laying waste to Christopher Luxon’s false claim that there are two ram raids a day says Labour’s Police Spokesperson Ginny Andersen. ...7 days ago
- Every party needs to step up on school lunchesLabour has finally said it would continue free school lunches - and the Green Party is calling on every party to step up. ...7 days ago
- Release: School lunches on the line this electionFree and healthy school lunches will be here to stay if Labour is re-elected, guaranteeing food for our kids who need it most and significant cost saving for parents. ...7 days ago
- Release: Labour commits to a new hospital for the people of Hawke’s BayThe next Labour Government will build a new hospital in Hawke’s Bay, Labour leader Chris Hipkins and Labour health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall announced. ...1 week ago
- Govt changes fall short of what’s needed for migrant protectionThe Green Party will keep up the fight to support exploited migrant workers, including pushing to end single employer visas, after the government picked up Green recommendations to improve immigration settings. ...1 week ago
- Clean Power Payment the smartest way forward to reduce emissions and billsGreen Party co leader James Shaw visited a home in Auckland today that has been upgraded with a wide range of energy improvements, similar to those that would be supported through the Green Party’s Clean Power Payment. ...1 week ago
- Foreign Minister's Action – A Contempt For “Caretaker Government” ConventionThe Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta’s presence in New York today at the United Nations General Assembly is a contempt of New Zealand’s “caretaker government” convention. Despite the long-standing caretaker convention, Minister Mahuta is today at the UN to sign a highly contentious “Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ) Agreement”, delivering a ...1 week ago
- Back To Black ResponsiblyThe Pre-Election Fiscal Update Changes Everything Within an hour of this speech there is going to be a debate between the political parties that the media, under MMP, still think are the only parties that matter in this campaign. Both of those parties are riddled with inexperience, as evidenced by ...1 week ago
- Stop the cuts before they start – Labour launches new TV adNational and ACT's tax plans don't add up, and that means deep cuts to the public services New Zealanders rely on, says Labour Campaign Chair Megan Woods. ...1 week ago
- Free school lunches paid for with a wealth taxThe Green Party will expand free school lunches and pay for it with a fair tax system. ...1 week ago
- The Pacific Reset & the Blue ContinentThank you for your invitation to speak with you this afternoon about New Zealand Foreign Policy. After offering one or two general thoughts about the nature of foreign policy, the focus today will be the Pacific Reset and why its goals remain even more important today as when they were ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Huge hole in National’s climate budgetNational’s plan to cut policies that are reducing New Zealand’s climate emissions will result in a huge gap in the country’s emissions budgets and could see Kiwis paying significantly more at the petrol pump as a result of Christopher Luxon hiking the ETS price. ...2 weeks ago
- Greens would push Labour much further on solar powerLabour’s plan to support rooftop solar is a step in the right direction, but falls short of what could be achieved through the Green Party’s Clean Power Payment. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Doubling rooftop solar to reduce bills & emissionsLabour will double the number of houses with rooftop solar in New Zealand, lowering household power bills, reducing emissions and boosting renewable electricity generation. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour will advance women’s health, careers, and legal protectionsA re-elected Labour Government will continue its proud tradition of advancing women’s health, employment, and legal rights Spokesperson for Women Jan Tinetti said. ...2 weeks ago
- Green Party confirms plan for five weeks annual leaveSpeaking at the E Tū Election Launch in Auckland today, Green Party co leader Marama Davidson outlined the Green Party’s manifesto commitment to ensure everyone has five weeks of annual leave. ...2 weeks ago
- New community-level energy projects to support more than 800 Māori households
Seven more innovative community-scale energy projects will receive government funding through the Māori and Public Housing Renewable Energy Fund to bring more affordable, locally generated clean energy to more than 800 Māori households, Energy and Resources Minister Dr Megan Woods says. “We’ve already funded 42 small-scale clean energy projects that ...1 day ago - Huge boost to Te Tai Tokerau flood resilienceThe Government has approved new funding that will boost resilience and greatly reduce the risk of major flood damage across Te Tai Tokerau. Significant weather events this year caused severe flooding and damage across the region. The $8.9m will be used to provide some of the smaller communities and maraes ...1 day ago
- Napier’s largest public housing development comes with solarThe largest public housing development in Napier for many years has been recently completed and has the added benefit of innovative solar technology, thanks to Government programmes, says Housing Minister Dr Megan Woods. The 24 warm, dry homes are in Seddon Crescent, Marewa and Megan Woods says the whanau living ...2 days ago
- Te Whānau a Apanui and the Crown initial Deed of Settlement I Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me...Māori: Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me te Karauna te Whakaaetanga Whakataunga Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me te Karauna i tētahi Whakaaetanga Whakataunga hei whakamihi i ō rātou tāhuhu kerēme Tiriti o Waitangi. E tekau mā rua ngā hapū o roto mai o Te Whānau ...3 days ago
- Plan for 3,000 more public homes by 2025 – regions set to benefitRegions around the country will get significant boosts of public housing in the next two years, as outlined in the latest public housing plan update, released by the Housing Minister, Dr Megan Woods. “We’re delivering the most public homes each year since the Nash government of the 1950s with one ...5 days ago
- Immigration settings updatesJudicial warrant process for out-of-hours compliance visits 2023/24 Recognised Seasonal Employer cap increased by 500 Additional roles for Construction and Infrastructure Sector Agreement More roles added to Green List Three-month extension for onshore Recovery Visa holders The Government has confirmed a number of updates to immigration settings as part of ...6 days ago
- Poroporoaki: Tā Patrick (Patu) Wahanga HohepaTangi ngunguru ana ngā tai ki te wahapū o Hokianga Whakapau Karakia. Tārehu ana ngā pae maunga ki Te Puna o te Ao Marama. Korihi tangi ana ngā manu, kua hinga he kauri nui ki te Wao Nui o Tāne. He Toa. He Pou. He Ahorangi. E papaki tū ana ...7 days ago
- Renewable energy fund to support community resilience40 solar energy systems on community buildings in regions affected by Cyclone Gabrielle and other severe weather events Virtual capability-building hub to support community organisations get projects off the ground Boost for community-level renewable energy projects across the country At least 40 community buildings used to support the emergency response ...7 days ago
- COVID-19 funding returned to GovernmentThe lifting of COVID-19 isolation and mask mandates in August has resulted in a return of almost $50m in savings and recovered contingencies, Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Following the revocation of mandates and isolation, specialised COVID-19 telehealth and alternative isolation accommodation are among the operational elements ...7 days ago
- Appointment of District Court JudgeSusie Houghton of Auckland has been appointed as a new District Court Judge, to serve on the Family Court, Attorney-General David Parker said today. Judge Houghton has acted as a lawyer for child for more than 20 years. She has acted on matters relating to the Hague Convention, an international ...7 days ago
- Government invests further in Central Hawke’s Bay resilienceThe Government has today confirmed $2.5 million to fund a replace and upgrade a stopbank to protect the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant. “As a result of Cyclone Gabrielle, the original stopbank protecting the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant was destroyed. The plant was operational within 6 weeks of the ...1 week ago
- Govt boost for Hawke’s Bay cyclone waste clean-upAnother $2.1 million to boost capacity to deal with waste left in Cyclone Gabrielle’s wake. Funds for Hastings District Council, Phoenix Contracting and Hog Fuel NZ to increase local waste-processing infrastructure. The Government is beefing up Hawke’s Bay’s Cyclone Gabrielle clean-up capacity with more support dealing with the massive amount ...1 week ago
- Taupō Supercars revs up with Government supportThe future of Supercars events in New Zealand has been secured with new Government support. The Government is getting engines started through the Major Events Fund, a special fund to support high profile events in New Zealand that provide long-term economic, social and cultural benefits. “The Repco Supercars Championship is ...1 week ago
- There is no recession in NZ, economy grows nearly 1 percent in June quarterThe economy has turned a corner with confirmation today New Zealand never was in recession and stronger than expected growth in the June quarter, Finance Minister Grant Robertson said. “The New Zealand economy is doing better than expected,” Grant Robertson said. “It’s continuing to grow, with the latest figures showing ...1 week ago
- Highest legal protection for New Zealand’s largest freshwater springsThe Government has accepted the Environment Court’s recommendation to give special legal protection to New Zealand’s largest freshwater springs, Te Waikoropupū Springs (also known as Pupū Springs), Environment Minister David Parker announced today. “Te Waikoropupū Springs, near Takaka in Golden Bay, have the second clearest water in New Zealand after ...1 week ago
- More support for victims of migrant exploitationTemporary package of funding for accommodation and essential living support for victims of migrant exploitation Exploited migrant workers able to apply for a further Migrant Exploitation Protection Visa (MEPV), giving people more time to find a job Free job search assistance to get people back into work Use of 90-day ...1 week ago
- Strong export boost as NZ economy turns cornerAn export boost is supporting New Zealand’s economy to grow, adding to signs that the economy has turned a corner and is on a stronger footing as we rebuild from Cyclone Gabrielle and lock in the benefits of multiple new trade deals, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. “The economy is ...1 week ago
- Funding approved for flood resilience work in Te KarakaThe Government has approved $15 million to raise about 200 homes at risk of future flooding. More than half of this is expected to be spent in the Tairāwhiti settlement of Te Karaka, lifting about 100 homes there. “Te Karaka was badly hit during Cyclone Gabrielle when the Waipāoa River ...1 week ago
- Further business support for cyclone-affected regionsThe Government is helping businesses recover from Cyclone Gabrielle and attract more people back into their regions. “Cyclone Gabrielle has caused considerable damage across North Island regions with impacts continuing to be felt by businesses and communities,” Economic Development Minister Barbara Edmonds said. “Building on our earlier business support, this ...1 week ago
- New maintenance facility at Burnham Military Camp underwayDefence Minister Andrew Little has turned the first sod to start construction of a new Maintenance Support Facility (MSF) at Burnham Military Camp today. “This new state-of-art facility replaces Second World War-era buildings and will enable our Defence Force to better maintain and repair equipment,” Andrew Little said. “This Government ...1 week ago
- Foreign Minister to attend United Nations General AssemblyForeign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will represent New Zealand at the 78th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York this week, before visiting Washington DC for further Pacific focussed meetings. Nanaia Mahuta will be in New York from Wednesday 20 September, and will participate in UNGA leaders ...1 week ago
- Midwives’ pay equity offer reachedAround 1,700 Te Whatu Ora employed midwives and maternity care assistants will soon vote on a proposed pay equity settlement agreed by Te Whatu Ora, the Midwifery Employee Representation and Advisory Service (MERAS) and New Zealand Nurses Association (NZNO), Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. “Addressing historical pay ...2 weeks ago
- New Zealand provides support to MoroccoAotearoa New Zealand will provide humanitarian support to those affected by last week’s earthquake in Morocco, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. “We are making a contribution of $1 million to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) to help meet humanitarian needs,” Nanaia Mahuta said. ...2 weeks ago
- Government invests in West Coast’s roading resilienceThe Government is investing over $22 million across 18 projects to improve the resilience of roads in the West Coast that have been affected by recent extreme weather, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. A dedicated Transport Resilience Fund has been established for early preventative works to protect the state ...2 weeks ago
- Government invests in Greymouth’s futureThe Government has today confirmed a $2 million grant towards the regeneration of Greymouth’s CBD with construction of a new two-level commercial and public facility. “It will include a visitor facility centred around a new library. Additionally, it will include retail outlets on the ground floor, and both outdoor and ...2 weeks ago
- Nanaia Mahuta to attend PIF Foreign Ministers’ MeetingForeign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will attend the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, in Suva, Fiji alongside New Zealand’s regional counterparts. “Aotearoa New Zealand is deeply committed to working with our pacific whanau to strengthen our cooperation, and share ways to combat the challenges facing the Blue Pacific Continent,” ...2 weeks ago
- PREFU shows no recession, growing economy, more jobs and wages ahead of inflationEconomy to grow 2.6 percent on average over forecast period Treasury not forecasting a recession Inflation to return to the 1-3 percent target band next year Wages set to grow 4.8 percent a year over forecast period Unemployment to peak below the long-term average Fiscal Rules met - Net debt ...2 weeks ago
- New cancer centre opens in ChristchurchPrime Minister Chris Hipkins and Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall proudly opened the Canterbury Cancer Centre in Christchurch today. The new facility is the first of its kind and was built with $6.5 million of funding from the Government’s Infrastructure Reference Group scheme for shovel-ready projects allocated in 2020. ...2 weeks ago
- Government invests in top of the south’s roading resilience$12 million to improve the resilience of roads in the Nelson, Marlborough and Tasman regions Hope Bypass earmarked in draft Government Policy Statement on land transport $127 million invested in the top of the south’s roads since flooding in 2021 and 2022 The Government is investing over $12 million to ...3 weeks ago
- New Zealanders continue to support the revitalisation of te reo as we celebrate Te Wiki o te Reo Mā...Ko tēnei te wiki e whakanui ana i tō tātou reo rangatira. Ko te wā tuku reo Māori, e whakanuia tahitia ai te reo ahakoa kei hea ake tēnā me tēnā o tātou, ka tū ā te Rātū te 14 o Mahuru, ā te 12 o ngā hāora i te ahiahi. ...3 weeks ago
- New Wildlife Act to better protect native speciesThe 70-year-old Wildlife Act will be replaced with modern, fit-for-purpose legislation to better protect native species and improve biodiversity, Minister of Conservation Willow-Jean Prime has announced. “New species legislation is urgently needed to address New Zealand’s biodiversity crisis,” Willow-Jean Prime said. “More than 4,000 of our native species are currently ...3 weeks ago
- Further safety initiatives for Auckland City CentreCentral and Local Government are today announcing a range of new measures to tackle low-level crime and anti-social behaviour in the Auckland CBD to complement Police scaling up their presence in the area. “Police have an important role to play in preventing and responding to crime, but there is more ...3 weeks ago
- Election 2023: ACT Party would amend Inquiries Act to allow public submissions on Covid-19 inquiry
It is "wrong" that the government gets to set the term of reference of a Royal Commission of Inquiry into its Covid-19 response, the ACT Party says. It is "wrong" ...1 hour ago - Election 2023: Māori leaders call on politicians to condemn racismIn an open letter, Māori and community leaders are calling for an end to a "divisive style of politics", and asking National leader Christopher Luxon to condemn race-baiting by NZ First and ACT. ...1 hour ago
- Media And Police Attribute Success Of Operation Dickinson To The Firearms Registry
The Sporting Shooters Association of New Zealand (SSANZ) is concerned about the political neutrality of New Zealand Police in the leadup to the 2023 General Election. We also have concerns about the media’s understanding of the Firearms Registry ...2 hours ago - A search for links between two of the universe’s most spectacular phenomena has come up empty – ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Eric Howell, OzGrav Associate Investigator; Adjunct Research Fellow in Astrophysics, The University of Western Australia Carl Knox / OzGrav, CC BY Every so often, astronomers glimpse an intense flash of radio waves from space – a flash that lasts only ...2 hours ago - Lions to roar or Magpies to soar? It’s a remarkable revival story either way on grand final daySource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daryl Adair, Associate Professor of Sport Management, University of Technology Sydney Saturday’s premiership tussle between Collingwood and Brisbane features the two top-ranked teams from 2023. Hopefully, unlike last year’s final, it will be a gripping match. The 2023 finals series has so ...2 hours ago
- Handkerchief or tissue? Which one’s better for our health and the planet?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Patrick Taylor, Chief Environmental Scientist, EPA Victoria; Honorary Professor, School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie University Shutterstock Maybe you have hay fever, COVID, a cold or the flu, and are reaching for a tissue or handkerchief. But which one’s better ...2 hours ago
- ‘You’re constantly worrying’: pregnant women, bushfire smoke and the impossibility of safetySource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mary Lou Rasmussen, Professor, School of Sociology, Australian National University Smoke covered large swathes of Australia during the catastrophic summer fires of 2019-2020. You could see the plumes from space. Over 20% of Australia’s forests went up in smoke and flame. ...2 hours ago
- Michael Woodhouse is prepared to lose in Dunedin one last time
The former cabinet minister withdrew from National’s list after implying the party had valued his experience below the need for diversity. Shanti Mathias speaks to him in Dunedin as he contemplates what comes after 15 years in politics. Michael Woodhouse is always repping – both Otago and the National Party. ...2 hours ago - Michael Woodhouse is prepared to lose in Dunedin one last timeThe former cabinet minister withdrew from National’s list after implying the party had valued his experience below the need for diversity. Shanti Mathias speaks to him in Dunedin as he contemplates what comes after 15 years in politics. Michael Woodhouse is always repping – both Otago and the National Party. ...2 hours ago
- Boos and strong language mark forum on housingPolitical candidates have heard the plight of renters at a forum in Wellington, with all promising to continue funding tenant services. ...3 hours ago
- ACT climate policy could see NZ Paris Agreement pledge walked backThe ACT Party has raised the possibility it would renege on New Zealand's international climate pledge under the Paris Agreement. ...3 hours ago
- Public sector headcount rises in last pre-election recruitment drive
The public administration and safety sector takes on 2,300 new workers in a month ...3 hours ago - Weet-bix case shows size of mountain supermarket challengers need to climbIt’s just one product, in one chain of stores. But few stories symbolise the ongoing power of the supermarket duopoly as well as The Warehouse’s Weet-bix situation, writes Catherine McGregor in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign ...3 hours ago
- Election 2023: All the latest developments on 29 SeptemberThe National Party is set to reveal its fiscal plan today after much controversy over how viable its foreign buyer's tax is and Labour's release of their fiscal plan on Wednesday. ...4 hours ago
- Try queen almost quit her Black Ferns dream
A prolific try-scorer in any team she makes, Martha Mataele is looking to cross the try line for the Black Ferns, as she's named in the squad for the first time. Martha Mataele almost gave up on her Black Ferns dream before her call-up came this month. When the Black ...4 hours ago - Short story of a NZ Loyal Party candidate
"They're using cloud seeding to alter the atmosphere!": a NZ Loyal candidate is sadly imagined by Jack Remiel Cottrell, in our series of short stories set in the election campaign "Andy, what you're saying is unhinged." Despite Ethan being one of the sheeple, Andy does appreciate that he visits. ...5 hours ago - Hipkins commits to calling out racism and defending Te TiritiLabour leader Chris Hipkins is continuing to target his political opponents over their rhetoric around Māori, saying it's race-baiting, while those accusing say he's "desperate". ...5 hours ago
- It’s happening: There’s finally construction on Wellington’s Golden Mile The revitalisation of the city centre that Wellington has been debating for years is finally actually happening. Joel MacManus explains what that means. There’s a handful of road cones and some tradies hanging around Grey Street this morning, and it’s possibly the best thing to happen in Wellington since Elijah ...6 hours ago
- It’s happening: There’s finally construction on Wellington’s Golden Mile The revitalisation of the city centre that Wellington has been debating for years is finally actually happening. Joel MacManus explains what that means. There’s a handful of road cones and some tradies hanging around Grey Street this morning, and it’s possibly the best thing to happen in Wellington since Elijah ...6 hours ago
- There’s always another WinstonChristopher Luxon looks like he will have to call Winston Peters on October 15 to form a government. But which Winston will answer the phone? Winston Peters has been booted from parliament on three separate occasions since he first entered in 1979. Every time it has changed him. In 1981 ...6 hours ago
- There’s always another WinstonChristopher Luxon looks like he will have to call Winston Peters on October 15 to form a government. But which Winston will answer the phone? Winston Peters has been booted from parliament on three separate occasions since he first entered in 1979. Every time it has changed him. In 1981 ...6 hours ago
- Raw Politics: Act and NZ First grab steering wheel
This week on the Raw Politics podcast: We look at what common wins might await New Zealand First and Act if National needs them both post-election; Plus How good are the Greens in the polls, and do overseas votes count for much? Much of the focus of the political ...6 hours ago - Daily crossword, Friday 29 September
...6 hours ago - NZ cancels final 21.5m Kyoto-era carbon credits
Climate Minister scraps 21m carbon credits left over from the international Kyoto Protocol markets ...6 hours ago - Road safety loses funding fight as more Waka Kotahi plans off track
Resources have been focused on maintenance because of severe weather ...6 hours ago - Torn apart by war, kept apart by bureaucrats
‘Let these young people have a life’ is the plea from a lawyer for an Afghan teenager living without her parents in New Zealand. She's one of a dozen children who fled here when the Taliban took over who are now forcibly separated from their families. It's not difficult ...6 hours ago - Winston reaches deep in his kete of scaremongering soundbites
Baseless fear and loathing regarding Māori political issues is nothing new, but claims that the sky is falling could decide this election ...6 hours ago - Newsroom daily quiz, Friday 29 September
Loading...(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A[quiz],DIV[quiz],A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp'); Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions. ...7 hours ago - Former Papuan governor Enembe’s corruption trial ends – verdict soonSPECIAL REPORT: By Yamin Kogoya Former Papuan Governor Lukas Enembe has presented his case for the defence, denying the corruption and bribery charges against him, with the end of the controversial and lengthy trial at the Tipikor Court of Jakarta Central District Court this week. The verdict is due on ...11 hours ago
- What causes lithium-ion battery fires? Why are they so intense? And how should they be fought? An ex...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Muhammad Rizwan Azhar, Lecturer, Edith Cowan University Shutterstock Picture this: you’re cruising down the Great Ocean Road in your brand new electric vehicle (EV), the ocean to your left and the wind in your hair. But what if I told ...15 hours ago
- Australian universities have dropped in the latest round of global rankings – should we be worried...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Judith Ireland, Education Editor, The Conversation, Australia Every year, Times Higher Education – a global higher education publication – ranks universities around the world. This one of three prominent international ranking systems for universities. Its 2024 list has just been released ...16 hours ago
- Te Pāti Māori candidate tops informal audience poll at chamber eventTe Pāti Māori's first general seat candidate has come out on top in an unscientific audience poll at a business chamber election event in a district held by National since 2008. ...16 hours ago
- Watch: Caucus – What do you do with a problem like Winston?On this week's episode of Caucus, Lisa Owen, Guyon Espiner, Julian Wilcox and Tim Watkin discuss the enigma that is Winston Peters and more as the election campaign races toward its final two weeks. Watch it here. ...16 hours ago
- The green energy surge still isn’t enough for 1.5 degrees. We’ll have to overshoot, adapt and so...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pep Canadell, Chief Research Scientist, Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere; Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Shutterstock It was a rare bit of good news on climate. The International Energy Agency this week released its latest net zero ...16 hours ago
- A journey of discovery and identity formation: The Dictionary of Lost Words makes its wonderful stag...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Russell Fewster, Lecturer in Performing Arts, University of South Australia Sam Roberts/State Theatre Company of South Australia The Dictionary of Lost Words follows Esme as she navigates the patriarchal world of Victorian England. While her father and colleagues construct the ...17 hours ago
- Beyond the PwC scandal, there’s a growing case for a royal commission into Australia’s ruthless ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carl Rhodes, Professor of Organization Studies, University of Technology Sydney Shutterstock Accounting and consulting group PwC has been front page news ever since its chief executive Tim Seymour stepped down “effectively immediately” in May, when the firm said it had ...17 hours ago
- ACT announces landlords policy, including 'pet bond'ACT is promising to make it easier for landlords to evict tenants, including if they are in emergency housing. ...18 hours ago
- ACT announces landlords policy, including 'pet bond'ACT is promising to make it easier for landlords to evict tenants, including if they are in emergency housing. ...18 hours ago
- The daily wrapHere are today’s top stories from the election campaign and beyond. The roads around parliament will reopen this afternoon after protesters cleared the area without issue, police have said. The Warehouse facing ‘Weet-Bix situation’ as Sanitarium pulls cereal from stores. The Commerce Commission says it is seeking urgent answers. ...18 hours ago
- Hipkins angered by race ‘one-liners’
The Prime Minister said he feels like progress on Treaty relationships have never been so at risk in his lifetime Prime Minister Chris Hipkins appealed to the Māori community to turn up to the polls today in Kawakawa, in a speech where he railed against racist comments made by his ...18 hours ago - ‘Extremely concerning’ – ComCom wants answers over Sanitarium v The WarehouseThe Commerce Commission says it’s asked Sanitarium why it’s pulling Weet-Bix off the shelves at The Warehouse, as we reported this afternoon. In a statement, the commission’s chair John Small said the claims made by The Warehouse were “extremely concerning” and Sanitarium had been asked to explain. “We are also ...18 hours ago
- Sanitarium won’t explain why Weet-Bix being pulled from The WarehouseSanitarium won’t explain why they are pulling Weet-Bix products from all 88 Warehouse stores this coming weekend, citing commercial sensitivity. The Warehouse said that it won’t be provided with the 1.2kg packs of Weet-Bix it’s been selling from 2021, with Sanitarium blaming supply issues. “As far as we are aware, ...19 hours ago
- Taxpayers’ Union Calls Hipkins’ GST Bluff – Releases The Modelling And Challenges Hipkins To D...Following recent concerns raised by the Taxpayers’ Union that Labour’s GST-exempt policy would leave a revenue hole of up to $411m because, as Labour have claimed, more people may eat fresh fruit and vegetables if they were cheaper, yesterday Chris ...19 hours ago
- https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO2309/S00253/.htm...19 hours ago
- Police report no issues at Parliament protestHundreds of people marched through Wellington to Parliament today to protest a wide variety of issues, but police reported no problems from marchers and roads are now reopening. ...19 hours ago
- Police report no issues at Parliament protestHundreds of people marched through Wellington to Parliament today to protest a wide variety of issues, but police reported no problems from marchers and roads are now reopening. ...19 hours ago
- National MP, gang supporters clash in protest on Parliament forecourt – 'Is that a threat...National MP Mark Mitchell got into a heated exchange with a group of gang whānau this morning after refusing to accept their petition protesting anti-gang policies. ...19 hours ago
- National MP, gang supporters clash in protest on Parliament forecourt – 'Is that a threat...National MP Mark Mitchell got into a heated exchange with a group of gang whānau this morning after refusing to accept their petition protesting anti-gang policies. ...19 hours ago
- Wellington roads to reopen after ‘uneventful’ protest of 2,000 peopleThe roads around parliament will reopen this afternoon after protesters cleared the area without issue, police have said. No issues have been reported at the rally, which attracted crowds of about 2,000 people led by Brian Tamaki and members of the freedom movement. “Police maintained a high presence in the ...20 hours ago
- Chris and Chris: The honeymoon endsIn the second leaders’ debate of the campaign, the happy Chris marriage has hit the rocks. It was a real love fest a week ago when Chris Hipkins and Chris Luxon first debated on live television. But on Wednesday night, with Paddy Gower moderating, their relationship took a turn. ...20 hours ago
- 4 ways to support someone with dementia during extreme heatSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nikki-Anne Wilson, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Neuroscience Research Australia (NeuRA), UNSW Sydney Shutterstock Our ability to adapt our behaviour to changes in temperature takes a significant amount of thought and decision making. For example, we need to identify suitable clothing, increase ...20 hours ago
- A chat with Down For Love’s Leisel and Brayden, the best reality couple of all timeAhead of the return of Down For Love, we caught up with season one’s golden couple: Leisel and Brayden. Last year, a dating show with a difference captured the hearts of New Zealand viewers, and tonight, that unique dating show returns to our screens for a second season. Down For ...20 hours ago
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It seems that our human instincts have been wiped out by miss-information coming from big oil and their cabal.
Designed to dumb down where we are headed now, without any care for our very human instincts of ‘fear and flight’.
Industry believe in “live in ignorance”
We used to believe in “she’ll be right”
Now what is understandable and real is; “we will not be all right”.
It seems that no change to human awareness will happen till we are all deeply affected by climate change and sadly then it will be beyond our power to change the spiraling worsening of life and weather events that will destroy us and life.
Whatever we do or don't do, can do or can't do, will or won't do: DON'T PANIC!!!
And if you do panic, ride that wave, recover and harness that energy for your particular response; garden like crazy, network like your life depends on it, support anyone who, like yourself, is fired-up by circumstance!
Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide: let's hope those cascades don't eventuate and that action now will deflect the harm. With that positive perspective mind, let's get busy, and by that I mean you and me getting busy; we know enough to be getting by on, let's make real our beliefs. Me, I'm planting trees for Africa!
I agree.
I want to be writing more proactive, life affirming posts on CC, but I keep getting distracted by the crisis stuff. There's a tension for me between leaving the hard stuff alone or keeping on raising awareness.
I'm also wondering if people are reaching their tolerance for the bad news.
to put that more clearly, I'm not sure if my energy is better spent on the proactive or the waking people up stuff. It seems like there is still a lot of complacency about what the situation, eg electric cars will save the day so the focus is on those things.
I don't think you or I or anyone for that matter, can/will "wake people up", so let's just get down on paper
some things that "people" can do. Let the calls for tech-fixes slide and get down to earth with our/your advice.
Other people's writing wakes me up all the time 🙂 But I agree, there's not enough of what we can do in front of us right now.
Apply your heart to these matters and tell us what you discovered.
The best time to act on these problems was fifty years ago. And the best defense is to increase the size and diversity of local biomass. It's not that hard – plant a tree. Better yet a row of them. Change lawn to pergola, fruiting forest or beefodder and kiss the mower goodbye. Replant the kina barrens. Dig in and make like a therapsid.
A "row of them"
I'm fascinated by what the "kina barrens" might be, but yes, make like the therapsid!
Kina barrens are coastal water areas where the removal of key predator species, such as snapper and crayfish, has allowed kina populations to expand rapidly until they browse away all the kelp forest, with consequent loss of biomass, productivity, species diversity and robustness. Not so common down south – the bracing weather 🙂 protects the fisheries to some degree down there.
https://www.pressreader.com/new-zealand/boating-nz/20190301/282729113186765
If you think terrestrial reafforestation is rapid, wait till you see how fast macrocystis can be re-established, given only a bit of a hand. No systematic replanting of it as yet however – maybe in fifty years.
Cool. Why fifty years until systematic replanting?
Interval for the powers that be to recognize it as a priority.
Increasing size and diversity of local biomass is imperative, no matter what else happens. Reducing the burning of fossil fuels is critical as well. Afaik, reaching tipping points doesn’t mean it’s too late.
You can't reverse the tip. Gird your loins. Give good advice. Get busy.
we don't know what the tips are yet, and there are ways to intervene in tips too. eg a mass decarbonisation of human activity at this point would really help.
The atmosphere in Riverton is thunderous right now! I'm on the veranda, potting-up runner beans!
You can't reverse the tip.
Give me a bit of a budget, a few tonnes of kudzu seed, a bunch of solar irrigators and Australia & I'd give it a sporting try.
If not that, then what will you do?
Edit: you can have Australia.
Not a lot of options left for me – the fisheries were stolen & NZ doesn't need ELT teachers. You don't get to plant on your landlord's land, and you'd need to win lotto to setup aquaculture under current models. Go bush maybe.
Another option is find people with land who need help. They're out there.
"Not a lot of options for me". The role of déclassé intellectual is a worthy one – stick at it.
The nice people next door with the tidy property might complain to the council, but on the other hand they might grow to like your wild backyard and with all the CC propaganda it could start a local trend. No takers so far in my neighbourhood.
https://www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/licences-regulations/outdoor-fires/Pages/complain-about-overgrown-section.aspx
Tip – you can "cut the grass" with a chef's knife.
What about an arrangement for the attentions of a rovin, tethered pair of goats or sheep for a couple of days.
Thanks for that. If we had the space I'd use a scythe – avoids caring for animals. I use a non-stainless knife sharpened with a scythe sharpening stone. Gave up the push mower when someone said how much they liked the grass unmown. Enjoying the grass and clover flowers and looking forward to self sown grass seed. The knife works well as a hedge trimmer too. You have to be careful not to cut yourself, but paying close attention is good for my state of mind. I kneel to do the work and put the cuttings between plants to shade the soil and as a mulch. The sound of the knife cutting the grass is not quite as lovely as the scythe, but you are closer to it – more intimate with what you are doing.
Me too.
Nice one Grafton. I have a dedicated wee patch of grass left and it provides all the straw I require for the chooks, and also some good mulch. I use a large knife too it only requires a couple of cuts a a year. The strips of lawn out front (paths between gardens is all that's left) get electric trimmed, and the whole shebang is a pleasing advertisement to growing your own.
I'm hunkering down 1650 ft up in the Gisborne ranges on our 10 area farm let.
Still wringing my wrists attempting to lower my stress levels, because i am feeling a loss of ability to turn the tide of climate change.
I agree with Stuart Monroe at 5 that 50 yrs ago we should have made changes then.
I recall it was then in 1963 we were sitting in a pub listening to a wise elder on the west coast saying the atmospheric oxygen levels were diminishing then from around 36% to about 22 percent then.
We have never forgotten that point but since then, but the press never said anything about it since.
Now we know it is happening, and that CO2 levels have been rising.
Then since oxygen atmospheric levels have declined somewhat it appears that the writing was on the wall then, but the media were not prepared to alert us all to the changes coming then.
Let's get busy. We don't need the media to tell us that it's time to act…do we?
A tip for transitioning from city driver to walker – although I'm guessing people are already on to this. You can explore your area with Google satellite maps and be surprised how much public green space there is that you didn't know about, including schools. I use this as a tool to plan routes and coordinate with the train. Not buses because I don't want to feel crowded and have to rely on the driver and traffic conditions. The nice things about trains is they have one track, more space inside, more predictable times and wonderful unmown and unlandscaped sidings and usually stations too – although Newmarket and Panmure in Auckland are totally designed and landscaped – but the contrast strengthens the appeal of others. I also enjoy the sound the train makes as it gathers speed and slows to stop, the amazing spells of no acceleration.
Just in case anyone gets alarmed about falling oxygen levels, here's a piece that discusses it:
https://www.inverse.com/article/21419-atmospheric-oxygen-levels-falling
tl;dr : In the time human activities have pushed CO2 levels from about 280ppm to 410ppm (which is a huge problem), O2 levels have decreased from about 209,560ppm to 209,430ppm – a negligible 0.06%. Indeed, going from sea level to 1650 feet reduces oxygen pressure by around 5%. Changes in atmospheric oxygen are way too tiny to be of even the slightest concern.
Reductions in ocean oxygen are of significant concern – but that's not related to reductions in atmospheric oxygen. Ocean oxygen reduction is due much more to warming and to all the pollution we're dumping in it (mostly agricultural runoff).
There are indeed some credible estimates atmospheric oxygen once got as high as 36% (it's about 21% now), but that was 300 million years ago (ie before even the dinosaur era). Other credible estimates have the highest ever oxygen concentration only a little bit higher than now. It's worth noting that higher oxygen concentration really help fires – if somehow there were oxygen concentrations of 35%, forests we have now simply wouldn't exist, they'd have burned a long long time ago.
Also for context, if you want to experience what the reduction in atmospheric oxygen over the last 800,000 years has meant, go to the 30th floor of any building and open a window. The difference in oxygen content between the ground floor and the 30th floor is the same as the reduction.
Perhaps someone could say 'I'm going to,,,,this week. And would others like to explore what is happening in their area and we'll all get together with our findings and opinions in the community and put them up on this blog Friday or Saturday. Could we have a doings post that goes up on Friday and gets added to over the weekend. Hearing about what is happening would be heartening and sharing what we have found out and plan is likely to be affirming for us.!?
One little thing I have started doing is looking for something positive that the Labour Coalition is doing and putting those up under the Latin of (look it up starts with A). I'll come back with that my brain is mush. ACTA NON VERBA perhaps I’ll remember now. Anyone else can join in with something positive that is being done, or planned and likely. (Acta non Verba being deeds not words. I chose latin so it’s easy to call up as a search term. Please don’t start spoiling it any of you who have that inclination.)
The Sunday How to Get There can still go on where there is thinking, ideas and reports of what is happening overseas.
It will be good if someone has a constructive comment on this idea of running little projects and reporting on them. Others who prefer to do nothing can leave it be. If no-one replies that will be informative too. In my social policy studies they taught that when no policy was formed about obviously immediate and important matters, that actually constituted as a decision that noted lack of commitment and low priority for action.
This is enlightening and shows that we are entering the accelerated phase of oxygen loss phase again.
Oxygen Level Decrease in Air from Climate Change
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4ynqsRQcoM
Oxygen Level Decrease in Air from Climate Change
Paul Beckwith University of Ottawa.
Combustion of fossil fuels causes oxygen to decrease in the atmosphere/ocean system.
As does deforestation, exponential population growth and phytoplankton loss in the oceans from warming stratification limiting nutrients at the surface.
It is often said that the oxygen in every second breath you take is produced by photo plankton, that are the true lungs of the planet. I discuss the extend of the oxygen decrease, which is more than you want to know.
[Another comment where it’s not clear that you are quoting someone else. You *have to make it clear. In premod now. If you don’t respond to this in a timely manner I will assume you have gone back to posting without reading replies and put you in the black list. Moderators have spent way too much time on this. – weka]
[no response so now added to the blacklist until the end of Jan. Will review again then – weka]
mod note.
I have also edited your name, please don’t use CAPS.
Andre posted above about the atmospheric oxygen issue,
https://thestandard.org.nz/the-risk-of-climate-tipping-points-is-upon-us/#comment-1671326
Just in case any is alarmed by the above, Paul Beckwith is a doomer in the Guy McPherson mould, trading off his academic credentials in an unrelated field (in Beckwith's case, laser physics) to spread wildly inaccurate alarmist nonsense. Fortunately for anyone trying to work out whether to assign him any credibility (he should be given none), he makes definite specific forecasts for the very short-term which quickly prove to be wildly wrong, such as the Arctic Ocean being completely ice-free by 2013.
https://fractalplanet.wordpress.com/category/science-doing-it-wrong/
https://thenarwhal.ca/arctic-sea-ice-vanish-2013/
https://www.quora.com/How-accurate-is-Paul-Beckwith-climate-scientist-when-it-comes-to-Climate-Change
And here's a Guardian piece on the topic of way-over-the-top climate alarmists.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/jul/09/there-are-genuine-climate-alarmists-but-theyre-not-in-the-same-league-as-deniers
Thanks for the steer Andre.
Thank you for these excellent responses Andre.
Indisputably the fossil carbon corporates spent hundreds of millions creating confusion and doubt. History will judge them very harshly indeed. At the same time there was also a strand of 'doomer environmentalism' that was happy to exploit the crisis as an excuse to 'smash capitalism'. Both were adept at covering their tracks and obscuring their motives, but ultimately I believe both have corrupted the debate and contributed to a deep erosion of trust that has prevented us achieving a political consensus in a timely fashion.
Because while this was always fundamentally a science and engineering problem, when it was twisted into a polarised political issue, progress ground to a halt for at least three decades. However we now have considerable grounds for optimism, the public mood is shifting toward rejecting both extremes. We now have at hand all the technical and environmental tools needed to solve this crisis; many of which have been discussed here at TS over the years.
Recently I've had good success in conversations with climate skeptics, or even downright deniers, with this approach. I explain my first hand experience informing me that the science, while never perfect, is compelling. I may not be a climate scientist’s little finger, but I understand enough to know it cannot be a hoax. And while this is a crisis historically created by science, engineering and capitalism … the solutions will be born of the same forces. Most people I find are quite receptive to this argument, one that presupposes an economic system that we know works and delivers astonishing outcomes, but retools it to better purposes. It re-frames the argument into a form that people can trust. Instead of parting in angry bitterness, there is a nodding sense that both sides of the debate have heard each other.
There is so much work to be done Andre; I only wish I was at the beginning of my career not the end of it, so as I could participate in this revolution. The future lies with you now; I almost envy your opportunities.
Sadly, I've yet to find my entry into renewable energy and/or climate change mitigation engineering. At 56, my career is much closer to its end than beginning. I talk about the opportunities a lot with my teenagers, maybe one or more of them will go down that path.
My specialty is advanced composites engineering, how to design, structurally analyse, and build composite items (so if wind-turbine blades were being built in NZ I'd be doing everything I could to get involved). But I've had occasion to do a few projects where absorption and radiation of solar and thermal infrared were key issues. What I had to learn for those gave me a bit of a handle on those energy balance issues.
It really bunches my undies when I see opposition to making serious efforts to get to zero-carbon on the grounds of cost and/or reduced economic growth (because it ain't true).
All the activity needed to get to zero carbon is economic activity, creating lots of growth and winners, with the only losers being fossil fuel interests (that have had it way to good for waaaay too long). Reworking our energy supply and distribution to get to zero-carbon is a project on the scale of rebuilding after WW2, which was a long long spell of sustained high economic growth.
Even if the cost/reduced growth argument were true (which it fkn isn't), it doesn't account for the way that not making the transition would be extremely costly and growth reducing.
Finally (and most important to me), it's simply morally wrong to impose extra on top of the already massive burdens of locked-in change we've imposed on future beings on this planet, just for the sake of a few dollars now.
I too get frustrated with those that use climate change as a stalking horse for other agendas. Other types of government with different socio-economic arrangements have fucked up their environments and spewed hazardous wastes into the atmosphere just as enthusiastically as western liberal-democratic mixed economies.
The socio-political arrangements we choose for ourselves are a separate issue to to change our energy use habits away from shitting our collective bed. They are separate topics with separate arguments on the merits for each. Conflating them only serves to muddy them both, which serves nobody except the few skimming the massive benefits at the top that seek to keep their current gravy train going as long as possible.
Just out of curiosity Andre, can wind turbine blades not be made of carbon fibre epoxy composites.
I would have thought with NZ's expertise in high performance Americas Cup boats and now Rocket Lab carbon fibre tech we would be well placed to create such industries.
When you look at a wind turbine they seem like pretty rudimentary technology to me. The first thing I would do is add funnels that optimise the wind speed past the blades to maximise electricity generated in low or high wind speeds.
Is it just funding that is preventing this? What about https://www.callaghaninnovation.govt.nz. Would they not fund a start up?
[I have changed your username to the one that you used before. Is there any reason why you want or need to use a different one? – Incognito]
See my Moderation note @ 6:20 PM.
Yes, turbine blades are indeed made of of epoxy composites using methods similar to those used in some marine industry and possibly for some Rocket Lab parts*. Certainly there are plenty of people in those places with the skills needed to make blades in low volumes, if not in massively high production volumes.
But for cost reasons the vast majority of the fibre reinforcement is glass fibre, not carbon fibre. The main use of carbon fibre is in unidirectional spar caps on the top and bottom of the shear web running up the middle of the blade.
It's a volume of production thing why we don't build the blades here. Factories in Europe and Asia are turning them out at incredible speeds, I vaguely recall reading an article about producing a blade a day out of each mouldset. Developing the capacity to do them that quickly takes an enormous amount of R&D and capital equipment, but the reward is a much lower per-unit cost when you build a lot of them.
There have been attempts to develop wind turbines here. Windflow developed a two-bladed turbine with a very innovative gearbox and actually produced a few turbines. But through a combination of managerial and money issues, and the extremely rapid technology development overseas basically passing them by, they dropped out.
Vortec were working on what was effectively a ducted turbine design, but they never even got as far as a full scale working prototype.
IIRC, both companies got quite a bit of government R&D funding, but neither could really get a foothold against the incredibly rapid pace of development from overseas suppliers.
*Technically speaking, turbine blades are generally made by infusing liquid resin into a dry fibre reinforcement stack, while the highest performing parts made by Rocket Lab and America’s cup etc will use prepreg, where the fibre and resin come from a factory in unidirectional rolls with the resin in a partially cured sticky solid state and a very precisely controlled resin/fibre ratio.
Only reason for changing it was because someone had taken up using Duncan on the Daily Blog and I thought they might be using it here as well and didn't wan't any confusion.
Good thinking but as far as I can see you’re the only one using that handle so it’s yours – first come, first served. If a newcomer uses a name that’s already in use, we generally ask them to change it to avoid confusion. We also don’t like sockpoppets.
Considering how often I comment here I don't get your point.
It's not like I am trying to establish a following here and then try and then subvert that.
But yeah you make the rules so I will desist from making pointless comments in future.
It seems you misunderstood me. My point was that it is fine to keep using your current user name because nobody else is using it. I wasn’t trying to say that you were a newcomer and perhaps that put you on the wrong foot? I was also not accusing you of being a sockpoppet. My apologies for the confusion.
FYI, I don’t make the rules. I follow them just like anybody else here. They are very lenient ones: https://thestandard.org.nz/policy/
I hope that cleared it up.
Did you get to work on the new ETNZ boat foils?
The torque and complex displacements they have to take are massive.
No. I've had very little involvement in that side of the marine industry for ten years.
From an engineering perspective, yeah those foils are really interesting (along with a bunch of other stuff that doesn't get publicity). But I spent seven years doing America's Cup and Volvo and TP52 etc, and in the end it got to me putting my everything into making toys for big boys with way too much money and mine's bigger than yours issues. I much prefer working on projects that deliver real products that real ordinary people can go out and have fun or do useful stuff with, not the fantasyland way off in the megamoney clouds stuff.
Completely understand. I've come from the reverse.
After 20 years building public transport infrastructure, I'm doing a bit of the big boys' toys thing for AC36, before I head off the next mega-project. Not much socialist justification for it, but a whole bunch of fun nevertheless.
Hi Ad, After your 20 years of experience building public transport infrastructure, can you give us your take on this?
https://www.435mag.com/kansas-city-becomes-first-major-american-city-with-universal-fare-free-public-transit/?fbclid=IwAR3lHEVFz0HkjgifL5pzfsF7CXzBxWXTYkB7hGB9d9qlEF_ks6N7hFN2Evk
And Andre, what do you think?
You talk a lot with your teenagers about these issues.
According to this report the movement for free public transport is being spearheaded by the young.
I reckon cost is only a part of the choice in what transport mode to use, and once you're above a fairly minimal income level cost is a very small factor in the choice.
Travel time, comfort, convenience, perceived safety, perceived control are much bigger factors than cost for all but the lowest income sectors.
For my kids, they're quite happy taking the bus and train where they want to go, and since the Hop fairy keeps their cards topped up, it's free to them. Nevertheless they're very keen to get their driver licenses for the freedom and time savings, even though they know they will start paying for their travel at that point.
It's for things like trips into downtown Dorkland that they still prefer public transport, to avoid the hassle of parking and gridlock. But to them, those are big reasons to just not go downtown unless absolutely necessary.
Big picture, I reckon free public transport is probably worth a try to see if it lifts ridership enough to make it worthwhile increasing services to improve speed and convenience which then further lifts ridership. But I wouldn't be surprised if it falls a long way short of that and would only do a little bit to get people out of cars.
The success of the Northern Busway is because it's a lot faster and more reliable than sitting on the motorway, not so much because it's cheaper (I suspect it probably isn't cheaper for a lot of the users). But the opportunities to spread that model to other parts of the city aren't great.
Hi Andre.
Talking about the success of the Northern Busway. It has long been my contention that the busway needs to be continued over the Auckland Harbour Bridge.
This of course would mean taking two car lanes off the carriageway .
(meaning less cars in the CBD not a bad thing in my opinion)
I was thinking of using the two Eastern lanes. Going South exiting onto Fanshaw Street. Going North from Fanshaw Street to Curran Street looping around Pt Erin to enter the north bound bus lane across the Shelley Beach Road flyover. North bound buses could also enter the Shelley Beach flyover from Jervois Road.
This would mean changing the direction of travel on the Shelley Beach flyover from south to north. Cars can exit/enter the Westhaven Marina through Curran Street, or Fanshaw. (not a big hardship for the relatively small marina traffic.)
The cost for making these changes would be minimal compared to the $6 to $10 billion harbour tunnel proposed by the Key Government. Which would only deliver more cars (and pollution), into the CBD.
And yes this cross harbour busway should be fare free. For two reasons, one to compensate commuters for leaving their cars at home. And two for the convenience, a factor that you have already mentioned as a positive. Hop on and off at your leisure, no coins to find, no hop cards to lose or forget to top up.
Speedily crossing the Harbour Bridge in comfort stress free, able to admire the views towards Rangitoto properly for the very first time with out having to keep a fixed forward gaze and your hands in a death grip on a steering wheel.
I think cost is a factor for families because one car ride is a lot cheaper in most instances than 3-4 bus/train fares, so owning a car is cheaper (and certainly a lot more convenient for younger children).
Cost obviously isn't a major factor for individuals, because if it was, more people in Chch would use the bus as their principal mode of transport with the occasional taxi or equivalent, rather than bothering with a car.
Sigh 🙁 For the umpteenth time, this is how you (could) do it:
Oxygen Level Decrease in Air from Climate Change by Paul Beckwith, University of Ottawa:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4ynqsRQcoM
Thinking of climate on a more immediate and local level – the West Coast has numbers of slips between Hokitika and Haast and places are cut off. Electricity is off for a while and I think Fox Glacier is affected. Lake Wanaka is rising steadily and parts of the town are under water.
We may have to think about supporting such areas economies while they try to continue living with conditions that are becoming more trying. Perhaps some of us need to become 'disaster tourists' who will be invited to stay when there is sufficient recovery, and be prepared to brighten their lives with whatever music we can perform, and bring scones, butter
It would be a great time with people who wished the visitors to come and welcomed the help, goodwill and revenue. And better than other samey holidays visiting some place where you pay good money then compare it unfavourably to last year's.
Tourism is a driver of climate change.
That is not a reply that indicates green practicality. We have people who need an economy as we all do. It would also be good to show solidarity amongst NZs. While we keep our eyes open to the climate change matters, we cannot drop people off the end of the pier and say if you can't swim, then you're out of luck. What we need from thinking Greens is a reasoned transition down from our present practices not a few snappy words that are a general slogan applied to a situation of local need.
sure. And most of the green movement has been saying exactly this for quite some time now.
However in the context of this post, which is a serious warning that we don't have time to waste, I can't see the political validity in promoting more tourism to solve adaptation issues. The push needs to be to get NZ off its reliance on mass tourism as well as our drive where and when you want attitude.
Tourism as an industry is lagging worse than farming when it comes to climate transition, and are still largely in denial. When they can bring themselves to talk about it at all it seems to be around electrifying their industry. But as you are pointing to, that won't work in many of our high tourism areas with increased extreme weather events. And that's not even getting to what will happen to those communities and economies when the Alpine Fault shifts.
I've been around the jobs vs environment argument since the 90s. Just transition really can't be about putting off emissions reduction because we're too mired in old thinking about how economies must work. This is pretty much the line farmes are running and it will kill us.
I actually agree that one of the needed solutions here is for NZers to holiday closer to home, but that won't resolve the problems of small communities being so reliant on tourism to make a living. The sooner we all transition off that the better. The biggest block to that at the moment is people thinking green tech will save us, and that the middle classes don't want to sacrifice their lifestyles (in this case holidaying at will, but also those that own or work in tourism businesses that support their overshoot lifestyles).
anyway, in the spirit of being solutions focused, I will think about what small, tourism-dependent communities could to in a Just Transition context about the tourism dilemma.
Experience it remotely ? I can imagine Hokitika hiring out a fleet of drones to remote tourists who want to explore the area without travelling there. The drones programmed to minimise intrusion. Like Youtube videos of exotic places – imagining adds to the pleasure. The service would be available at set times, a season to remotely explore Hokitika with your hire drone.
What’s the outcome post tipping point? What happens apart from DOOM!!!0!!
Read the Nature paper, it describes the climate scenarios. Then read Extinction Rebellion, they're describing potential scenarios affecting humans and the biosphere. Also, don't troll my post.
I guess the problem I have with the nature paper is that it doesn’t allow for the possibility a time of plenty associated with more carbon and higher temperatures. Whether or not humans are there to enjoy it is largely irrelevant.
Which brings me on to XR, the lower upper middle wokies, who have an amazingly blind human centric view of the environment. Their outcomes only focus on the inability of humans to survive, ignoring that the planet will always be here, regardless of our presence or activities.
One of the central tenets of XR is the importance of nature beyond human needs. Hence they core demand is around telling the truth about climate change and the ecological crisis. Not sure who you have been following from XR, but the people I am reading are deeply engaged with the impacts on nature and the rights of nature.
"Whether or not humans are there to enjoy it is largely irrelevant."
I disagree. Humans are part of nature too. But even if you don't care about the suffering of this particular life form, there are compelling, nature-centric reasons for humans to do the right thing irrespective of whether we go extinct or not.
As for allowing for "the possibility a time of plenty associated with more carbon and higher temperatures", I'm going to guess the problem isn't so much that Nature didn't address that (why should they, the piece was about the problems of climate science underplaying tipping points), but that you have a kind of denialist approach that you're not being particularly up front about. You may know that I don't allow denialist lines under my posts. Despite having started this conversation by trolling, I guess there's an opportunity here for you to say what you really mean but you still need to abide by the rules.
Foolish; "ignoring that the planet will always be here, regardless of our presence or activities." – what me worry said the guy on MAD cover.
Is that a message from the Great Creator Climaction? The planet may go on despite all but we will kill off most of ourselves and most other living things of our time. Mars is still there, but it's environment and atmosphere are negative to life as we know it. Why not try to save the magical life that is here and not just treat it as a passing artifact although we ourselves, are the passing artifacts?*
* Artifact – an object made by a human being, typically one of cultural or historical interest.
(I was made through the combined work of two humans, with the living spark which comes from a distant Creator, and the rest of the definition is, I believe, true.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_system
I think the following excerpts from Charlotte Wood's piece in today's Guardian are pertinent to this post and some of the accompanying comments. The whole article can be read here.
and..
"Sydney has been choked by thick smoke for almost a week.
Hospital emergency departments have seen a 25% increase in people presenting with asthma and breathing problems, and ambulance crews are responding to between 70 and 100 call-outs a day for respiratory conditions, including to school children as young as six."
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/06/australia-fires-five-bushfires-merge-north-of-sydney-as-conditions-forecast-to-worsen
"Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climate scientist with the University of NSW’s Climate Change Research Centre, said she was “surprised, bewildered, concerned” that the emergency had prompted little discussion from political leaders this week.
“Here we are in the worst bushfire season we’ve ever seen, the biggest drought we’ve ever had, Sydney surrounded by smoke, and we’ve not heard boo out of a politician addressing climate change,” she said.
“They dismissed it from the outset and haven’t come back to it since.
“They’re burying their heads in the sand while the world is literally burning around them and that’s the scary thing. It’s only going to get worse.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/07/leading-scientists-condemn-political-inaction-on-climate-change-as-australia-literally-burns
"Low oxygen levels are also associated with global heating, because the warmer water holds less oxygen and the heating causes stratification, so there is less of the vital mixing of oxygen-rich and oxygen-poor layers. Oceans are expected to lose about 3-4% of their oxygen by the end of this century, but the impact will be much greater in the levels closest to the surface, where many species are concentrated, and in the mid to high latitudes."
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/07/oceans-losing-oxygen-at-unprecedented-rate-experts-warn
Pretty much everything we do on an industrial scale is destroying us
does this mean I cant go to mongolia, makoo peekoo, or patagonia and I cant have a chainsaw, leaf blower, horizontal grinder, hardly davison, jetski, replica winchester and go to far away places and laugh at quaint people?
I often think about this too – what makes people buy and use all this and travel to remote places with no aim but the novelty. It must be to feel powerful and as Andre says above wrt transport choices "comfort, convenience, perceived safety, perceived control". The reassurance that comes from control is what I crave, and I think others too. Our perceived freedom has made us deeply fearful. I'm reluctant to bring religion into this, but the ancient teachings and warnings still stand.
Touring overseas is a sign that you have 'made it.' You embark from little ol' NZ and keep going on numerous trips until you are satisfied you have visited all the main places of interest, and even done some ethnic tours. Then you come home and make discouraging comments about those NZ people who can't manage their lives materially and socially to the norms of the nice people here.
What ancient teachings are you thinking of Grafton?
"Be not wise in thine own eyes: fear the LORD, and depart from evil." Proverbs 3:7
don't be arrogant, and take notice of what nature is doing?
Agree, especially "take notice". And there's something about this song ….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhZWh90eoZU
Have you tried Facebook or Instagram?