This result could lead to the break up of the United Kingdom
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- Date published:
8:11 am, February 10th, 2020 - 13 comments
Categories: boris johnson, Brexit, International, politicans, uk politics -
Tags: Boris Johnson, democracy, Good Friday Agreement, labour party uk, nick kelly, Northern Ireland, scottish independence, Self Determination, UK election 2019
On the June 23 2016, Dad and I were driving back to San Francisco from Sacramento, where we’d visited our relatives. We were fairly late, so had on US public radio to help keep us awake for the drive back to our motel. In the previous two weeks listening to US media, international news tended to get only limited coverage. That night was different. The US media were focused on one issue, and that was the result of the Brexit referendum.
Listening to the results being reported while driving on that California freeway, I recall thinking ‘this result could lead to the break up of the United Kingdom’. On hearing that both Northern Ireland and Scotland had voted to stay part of the EU, in contrast to the rest of the country, it was hard to imagine that this would not become a significant issue.
Fast forward three and a half years. Its 10pm, June 12 2019. By now I’m living in London. I’m driving home on the A40 in West London passing The Grenfell Tower, I hear UK general election exit poll predicting that The Conservatives would win a significant majority. I stay up all night to watch the results (though at times I struggle to stay awake). It becomes clear that the Scottish National Party (SNP) has won the vast majority of seats in Scotland. I also watch with interest the Northern Ireland results, where for the first time unionists (those who want Northern Ireland to remain part of the United Kingdom) have failed to win a majority. I recall my thoughts back in June 2016, and once again I think to myself, ‘This result could lead to the break up of the United Kingdom’.
Prior to the election I blogged about Scottish Nationalism and why Brexit had revived calls for Scottish Independence. I also blogged about Northern Ireland and how Brexit threatened the precarious 1998 peace agreement.
So what happens now? Well for Northern Ireland, the major development since the election has been that the Northern Irish parliament (Stormont) has reconvened for the first time in 3 years. After the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) dismal result, they have now realised that power sharing in Stormont is their best hope of remaining relevant. Northern Ireland hasn’t suddenly given Sinn Fein or other nationalist parties wanting a United Ireland a majority – their vote remained fairly stagnant. The vote shift was from unionist to more moderate/pragmatic parties who support the Good Friday Agreement and are non aligned to either Unionist or Nationalist factions.
The 1998 Good Friday Peace Agreement states the following:
“the Secretary of State” should call a referendum “‘if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.”
There is no sign that such a referendum will be called in the immediate future. Nor can one say with any certainty how such a referendum would go. But at the end of 2020 we will have a better idea whether the UK has secured a decent trade deal with the EU. We will know the level of alignment with EU legislation. And from here, it will be easier to gauge what the true impact of Brexit will be on Northern Ireland. A United Ireland is always an option, and if the ongoing relationship between the UK and the EU is fraught with difficulty – Northern Ireland may just vote to join the Republic.
Unlike Northern Ireland, Scotland do not have an arrangement where they can hold a independence referendum. At least not one that the British Government has to recognise. In fact PM Boris Johnson has rejected calls for a second referendum on Scottish Independence. This doesn’t stop the Scottish Parliament calling one. The experience of the Catalan independence referendum of 2017 should ring alarm bells with the British Government. If Scotland votes to leave the UK, but the government in Westminster refuses to recognise the result – this could cause an interesting constitutional crisis. Aside from civil unrest from the people of Scotland, internationally there would considerable sympathy for Scotland were they denied independence. Not least from the EU, who would relish the opportunity to take back part of the by then former UK into the EU.
In politics it is risky to make predictions, and I generally try to avoid doing so. But questions of whether Northern Ireland and Scotland will remain part of the UK are now asked daily in the British media. Further, there seems to be an increasing realisation and acceptance from the British public that this could well happen.
UK Labour, still reeling from the 2019 election loss are now in the process of choosing a new leader. Sections of Labour still see Scotland as part of the country they can win back, while others believe this unlikely. In 2014 Labour ran a united front campaign with David Cameron’s Conservative Government urging Scotland to stay in the UK.
Many in Labour fear if Scotland leaves the UK, the party will never have the numbers to form a government in the UK again. This is nonsense. The last time the UK Labour Party relied on Scottish MPs to form a government was after the 1974 General Election. In all 3 elections Tony Blair won, Labour could have formed government without its Scottish MPs. But this is beside the point. For Labour, and the rest of the political establishment in Britain, the issue of Scottish independence should be seen as an issue of self determination and democracy.
If Scots want Scotland to be a separate country, then nothing should stand in their way. If Scots vote to stay in the UK again, as they did in 2014, then the issue is put to bed. But by refusing a second referendum post Brexit, this could bolster support for Scottish independence making it a much more likely prospect.
The break up of the United Kingdom isn’t inevitable. And there are pros and cons if it were to occur. But the calls for this to occur are becoming much louder. The challenge for the political establishment in London is how it will manage this. And if the UK does break up, what does that mean for the future of England and Wales. Would Wales and England stay united? How would a United Ireland and independent Scotland engage with England and Wales? What would be the social and economic implications of such a change?
The next few years will be very interesting for the United Kingdom.
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- Release: Working together on consistent support for veterans this Anzac DayOur two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Penny drops – but what about Seymour and Peters?Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...2 weeks ago
- Another ‘Stolen Generation’ enabled by court ruling on Waitangi Tribunal summonsTonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Budget blunder shows Nicola Willis could cut recovery fundingIt appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...2 weeks ago
- Further environmental mismanagement on the cardsThe Government’s resource management reforms will add to the heavy and ever-growing burden this Government is loading on to our environment. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: RMA changes will be a disaster for environmentThe Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour supports urgent changes to emergency management systemLabour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour calls for New Zealand to recognise PalestineThe Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Three strikes law political posturing of worst kindThe Government is bringing back a law that has little evidential backing just to look tough, Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Government cuts unbelievably target child exploitation, violent extremism, ports and airpor...Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...2 weeks ago
- Three strikes has failed before and will fail againResurrecting the archaic three-strikes legislation is an unwelcome return to a failed American-style approach to justice. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Environmental protection vital, not ‘onerous’The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...2 weeks ago
- Ferris – Three Strikes targets those ‘too brown to be white’The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt cuts doctors and nurses in hiring freezeCuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...2 weeks ago
- Fast-track submissions period must be extendedThe Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Progress on climate will be undone by GovtNew Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Dark day for Kiwi kids as a third of Govt cuts affect themNews that 1000 jobs at the Ministry of Education and Oranga Tamariki could go is devastating for future generations of New Zealanders. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Alarm as Government signals further blow to school lunchesMore essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...3 weeks ago
- Oranga Tamariki cuts commit tamariki to state abuseTe Pāti Māori is disgusted at the confirmation that hundreds are set to lose their jobs at Oranga Tamariki, and the disestablishment of the Treaty Response Unit. “This act of absolute carelessness and out of touch decision making is committing tamariki to state abuse.” Said Te Pāti Māori Oranga Tamariki ...3 weeks ago
- New Zealand Sign Language Week an opportunity for anyone to sign
New Zealand Sign Language Week is an excellent opportunity for all Kiwis to give the language a go, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. This week (May 6 to 12) is New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL) Week. The theme is “an Aotearoa where anyone can sign anywhere” and aims to ...10 hours ago - Next stop NASA for New Zealand studentsSix tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...10 hours ago
- $1.9 billion investment to keep NZ safe from crimeNew Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...10 hours ago
- OECD reinforces need to control spendingThe OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. ...13 hours ago
- Agreement delivers Local Water Done Well for AucklandThe Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...2 days ago
- Gaza and the Pacific on the agenda with GermanyForeign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...3 days ago
- Decision allows for housing growth in Western Bay of PlentyThe Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...4 days ago
- Speech to New Zealand China CouncilThank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...4 days ago
- Modern insurance law will protect Kiwi householdsThe Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...4 days ago
- Government recommits to equal payThe coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...5 days ago
- Transforming how our children learn to readStructured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...5 days ago
- NZ not backing down in Canada dairy disputeTrade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...5 days ago
- Stronger oversight for our most vulnerable childrenThe rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...5 days ago
- Streamlining Building Consent ChangesThe Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...5 days ago
- Minister acknowledges passing of Sir Robert Martin (KNZM)New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...5 days ago
- Speech to New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Parliament – Annual Lecture: Challenges ...Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...5 days ago
- Accelerating airport security linesFrom today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...6 days ago
- Community hui to talk about kina barrensPeople with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...6 days ago
- Kiwi exporters win as NZ-EU FTA enters into forceKiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...6 days ago
- Mining resurgence a welcome signThere are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...6 days ago
- Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill passes first readingThe return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...6 days ago
- Government to boost public EV charging networkEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...6 days ago
- Residential Property Managers Bill to not progressThe coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...6 days ago
- Independent review into disability support servicesThe Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...7 days ago
- Justice Minister updates UN on law & order planJustice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...7 days ago
- Ending emergency housing motels in RotoruaThe Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...7 days ago
- Trade Minister travels to Riyadh, OECD, and DubaiTrade Minister Todd McClay heads overseas today for high-level trade talks in the Gulf region, and a key OECD meeting in Paris. Mr McClay will travel to Riyadh to meet with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). “New Zealand’s goods and services exports to the Gulf region ...1 week ago
- Education priorities focused on lifting achievementEducation Minister Erica Stanford has outlined six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system that sets Kiwi kids up for future success. “I’m putting ambition, achievement and outcomes at the heart of our education system. I want every child to be inspired and engaged in their learning so they ...1 week ago
- NZTA App first step towards digital driver licenceThe new NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) App is a secure ‘one stop shop’ to provide the services drivers need, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Digitising Government Minister Judith Collins say. “The NZTA App will enable an easier way for Kiwis to pay for Vehicle Registration and Road User Charges (RUC). ...1 week ago
- Supporting whānau out of emergency housingWhānau with tamariki growing up in emergency housing motels will be prioritised for social housing starting this week, says Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka. “Giving these whānau a better opportunity to build healthy stable lives for themselves and future generations is an essential part of the Government’s goal of reducing ...1 week ago
- Tribute to Dave O'SullivanRacing Minister Winston Peters has paid tribute to an icon of the industry with the recent passing of Dave O’Sullivan (OBE). “Our sympathies are with the O’Sullivan family with the sad news of Dave O’Sullivan’s recent passing,” Mr Peters says. “His contribution to racing, initially as a jockey and then ...1 week ago
- Speech – Eid al-FitrAssalaamu alaikum, greetings to you all. Eid Mubarak, everyone! I want to extend my warmest wishes to you and everyone celebrating this joyous occasion. It is a pleasure to be here. I have enjoyed Eid celebrations at Parliament before, but this is my first time joining you as the Minister ...1 week ago
- Government saves access to medicinesAssociate Health Minister David Seymour has announced Pharmac’s largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff. “Access to medicines is a crucial part of many Kiwis’ lives. We’ve committed to a budget allocation of $1.774 billion over four years so Kiwis are ...1 week ago
- Pharmac Chair appointedHon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...1 week ago
- Taking action on Fetal Alcohol Spectrum DisorderHundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says. “Every day, ...1 week ago
- New sports complex opens in KaikoheRegional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...1 week ago
- Diplomacy needed more than everForeign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges. “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...1 week ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address, Buttes New British Cemetery BelgiumAmbassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service. It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...2 weeks ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address – NZ National Service, Chunuk BairDistinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...2 weeks ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address – Dawn Service, Gallipoli, TürkiyeMai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia. Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...2 weeks ago
- Neediest areas are being shortchanged on government funds − even with programs designed to benefit...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Eric Stokan, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Maryland, Baltimore County If you live in one of the most economically deprived neighborhoods in your city, you might think the government is directing a smaller share of public funds to your community. ...3 hours ago - Tackling Pacific media’s crucial role in climate crisis and press freedomWansolwara The news media’s crucial role in climate change and environment journalism was the focus of The University of the South Pacific’s Journalism Programme 2024 World Press Freedom Day celebrations. The European Union Ambassador to the Pacific, Barbara Plinkert, and Pacific Islands Forum Secretary General Henry Puna were the chief ...4 hours ago
- QANTAS has finally settled its ‘ghost flights’ lawsuit for $120 million. What’s next?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Adams, Professor of Corporate Law & Academic Director of UNE Sydney campus, University of New England Last August, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) launched legal proceedings against Qantas. The consumer watchdog accused the airline of selling thousands of tickets ...5 hours ago
- Contradictions and confusion: More questions than answers at government press conference
The Prime Minister and Corrections Minister repeatedly provided incorrect information about their $1.9 billion planned prison spend-up. ...8 hours ago - A View from Afar: Buchanan and Manning – A moment of frictionThis episode of A View From Afar was recorded LIVE on May 6, 2024 (NZST) which is Sunday evening, May 5, 2024 at 8:30pm (USEST). In an analytical essay titled ‘A moment of friction’ political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan wrote how we are living within a decisive moment ...9 hours ago
- Can I take your order – and your data? The hidden reason retailers are replacing staff with AI bot...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cameron Shackell, Sessional Academic and Visitor, School of Information Systems, Queensland University of Technology Linus Zoll / Google DeepMind / Unsplash You might have seen viral videos of Wendy’s drive-thru customers in the United States ordering their fast food from the ...9 hours ago
- The steamiest movie of the year has almost no sex in it. How did Challengers do it?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alison Taylor, Assistant Professor, Bond University Metro Goldwyn Mayer Pictures At the crux of the critical response to Luca Guadagnino’s new movie Challengers is one word: “sexy”. The film charts a love triangle between three up-and-coming tennis players: Tashi (Zendaya), ...9 hours ago
- The Australian public service is letting Indigenous people down. How do we fix it?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jenny Stewart, Professor of Public Policy, ADFA Canberra, UNSW Sydney For years, First Nations people have been telling governments they want to be listened to. In particular, they want more ownership of the programs and services that are supposed to help them. ...10 hours ago
- Curious Kids: why do trees have bark?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gregory Moore, Senior Research Associate, School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, The University of Melbourne Why do trees have bark? Julien, age 6, Melbourne. This is a great question, Julien. We are so familiar with bark on trees, that most of us ...10 hours ago
- Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announces $1.9 billion plan to make NZ saferThe Prime Minister says there will be a "significant investment" in funding for frontline Corrections staffing and services. ...11 hours ago
- Surgery is the default treatment for ACL injuries in Australia. But it’s not the only waySource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anthony Nasser, Senior Lecturer in Physiotherapy, University of Technology Sydney PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock The anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) is an important ligament in the knee. It runs from the thigh bone (femur) to the shin bone (tibia) and helps stabilise ...11 hours ago
- Inflation, education and productivity: Some of the problems NZ needs to fix, according to the OECDThe country is being told it needs to get inflation under control, balance the books, raise educational achievement, and lift productivity. ...11 hours ago
- Live: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's post-Cabinet updateWatch RNZ's livestream of the press conference and follow our blog for all the latest updates. ...12 hours ago
- Voluntary redundancies at Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment bring its tally of job los...The latest round of voluntary redundancies at the ministry has lifted RNZ's count of public sector job cuts to more than 4000. ...12 hours ago
- UK Tories perform badly at local elections; Labor still narrowly ahead in Australian pollsSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne I covered the May 2 United Kingdom local government elections for The Poll Bludger. The Blackpool South parliamentary byelection was also held, ...13 hours ago
- Hundreds of cities have achieved zero road deaths in a year. Here’s how they did itSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Mclaughlin, Adjunct Research Fellow, The University of Western Australia Matthew Mclaughlin It’s National Road Safety Week and it comes on the back of a year in which 1,286 people died on Australian roads. The rising road toll – up 8.2% ...13 hours ago
- What does the new Commonwealth Prac Payment mean for students? Will it do enough to end ‘placement...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deanna Grant-Smith, Professor of Management, University of the Sunshine Coast The federal government has announced a “Commonwealth Prac Payment” to support selected groups of students doing mandatory work placements. Those who are studying to be a teacher, nurse, midwife or social ...13 hours ago
- Education, productivity and emissions: Three big problems NZ needs to fix, according to the OECDEconomic growth is sluggish - and the problems are a familiar list. ...13 hours ago
- New to streaming: What to watch on Netflix NZ, Neon and more this week
We round up everything coming to streaming services this week, including Netflix, Amazon Prime, Disney+, Apple TV+, ThreeNow, Neon and TVNZ+. If you love a dark comedy: Bodkin (Netflix, May 9) An English podcaster, an Irish podcaster and American podcaster walk into a pub and…make a TV show? ...14 hours ago - ‘Don’t mistake Pacific leaders AUKUS quietness’ as support for NZ, says academicBy Eleisha Foon, RNZ Pacific senior journalist A Pacific regionalism academic has called out New Zealand’s Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters for withholding information from the public on AUKUS and says the security deal “raises serious questions for the Pacific region”. Auckland University of Technology academic Dr Marco de Jong ...14 hours ago
- Labour says Government's water plan will see some councils 'left out in the cold'Meanwhile, the party and National are also odds about whose plan to fix the pipes will cost more. ...15 hours ago
- The climate cost of your digital lifeHow worried should we be about the cloud? This is an excerpt from our weekly environmental newsletter Future Proof. Sign up here. I currently have a few thousand unread emails languishing in my inbox, mostly old marketing newsletters and piles of unread science journal press releases. I have a similar number ...15 hours ago
- Three fact-checking challenges in Southeast AsiaSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nuurrianti Jalli, Assistant Professor of Communication Studies College of Arts and Sciences Department of Languages, Literature, and Communication Studies, Northern State University Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Southeast Asian governments not only have to deal with the virus but also with the false ...15 hours ago
- Houston area’s flood problems offer lessons for cities trying to adapt to a changing climateSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard B. (Ricky) Rood, Professor Emeritus of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of Michigan Pavement can leave floodwater with nowhere to go. Chengyue Lao/Xinhua via Getty Images Scenes from the Houston area looked like the aftermath of a hurricane in ...15 hours ago
- The scaling back of Saudi Arabia’s proposed urban mega-project sends a clear warning to other woul...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Murakami Wood, Professor of Critical Surveillance and Securities Studies, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa The skyline of Riyadh, the capital and largest city of the Kingdom of Saudia Arabia. (Shutterstock) There is a long history of planned city building by both governments ...15 hours ago
- Many immigrants to the US are fleeing violence and persecution − here’s how the federal governme...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Karen Jacobsen, Henry J. Leir Chair in Global Migration, Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy, Tufts University The men’s dormitory at a new center for asylum-seekers in Portland, Maine. Ben McCanna/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images Immigration has become a defining issue ...15 hours ago
- LIVE TODAY: A View from Afar – A Moment of FrictionThe LIVE Recording of A View from Afar podcast will begin today at 12:45pm May 6, 2024 (NZST) which is Sunday evening, 8:30pm (USEST). In an analytical essay titled ‘A moment of friction’ political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan wrote how we are living within a decisive moment of ...15 hours ago
- How to make the most of oyster seasonThe Boil Up’s Lucinda Bennett considers the oyster – from freshness to pearls to the joy of shucking your own. This is an excerpt from our weekly food newsletter, The Boil Up. In Carmen Maria Machado’s short story ‘Eight Bites’, a woman begins her last supper before bariatric surgery with “a cavalcade ...16 hours ago
- Auckland University staff appeal over Gaza protest in solidarity with studentsAsia Pacific Report A group of 65 Auckland University academics have written an open letter to vice-chancellor Dawn Freshwater criticising the institution’s stance over students protesting in solidarity with Palestine. They have called on her administration to “support” the students who were denied permission to establish an “overnight encampment” by ...16 hours ago
- How the Student Volunteer Army is helping high schoolers give backThe Student Volunteer Army is on the march, generating approximately 1.6 million hours of volunteering from roughly 35,000 secondary school students in just five years. For Rebekah Brown, the pathway to volunteering started with her singing coach. With a passion for the arts, the suggestion to volunteer at Acting Antics, ...17 hours ago
- Here’s what happened when I replaced my personality with the Meta AI chatbot for a dayKeeping up with online communication can be exhausting, so Fran Barclay enlisted the help of Meta’s new ‘intelligent assistant’ to respond to all her messages. Could her mates tell the difference? For centuries, technology has ruled the ways in which we communicate. From the dawn of written language, to the ...17 hours ago
- MP Jamie Arbuckle to keep two jobs – and two salariesJamie Arbuckle, a councillor who has become an member of parliament, says he has settled into having two roles so comfortably he's going to keep both pay cheques. ...17 hours ago
- What Australia can learn from Latin America when it comes to tackling violence against womenSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Luis Gómez Romero, Senior Lecturer in Human Rights, Constitutional Law and Legal Theory, University of Wollongong Fifty years ago, Australian feminist Anne Summers denounced “the ideology of sexism” governing over so many women’s lives. Unfortunately, sexism is as lethal today as it ...19 hours ago
- A tax on sugary drinks can make us healthier. It’s time for Australia to introduce oneSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Breadon, Program Director, Health and Aged Care, Grattan Institute Leah Newhouse/Pexels Sugary drinks cause weight gain and increase the risk of a range of diseases, including diabetes. The evidence shows that well-designed taxes can reduce sugary drink sales, cause ...19 hours ago
- As New Zealand CBDs evolve post-pandemic, repurposing old or empty spaces should be on the drawing b...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jose Antonio Lara-Hernandez, Senior Researcher in Architecture, Auckland University of Technology Getty Images The COVID-19 pandemic and the hybrid work patterns it fostered have changed the way we think about office space, and central business districts in general. While fears ...19 hours ago
- Nuclear power makes no sense for Australia – but it’s a useful diversion from real climate actio...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam Simpson, Senior Lecturer, International Studies, University of South Australia Wlad74, Shutterstock Opposition leader Peter Dutton argues Australia needs nuclear power to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. But nuclear power is not feasible for Australia. It is too slow, too ...19 hours ago
- Australian churches collectively raise billions of dollars a year – why aren’t they taxed?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dale Boccabella, Associate Professor of Taxation Law, UNSW Sydney There’s a good reason your local volunteer-run netball club doesn’t pay tax. In Australia, various nonprofit organisations are exempt from paying income tax, including those that do charitable work, such as churches. ...19 hours ago
- Real comedy, real trauma: how Baby Reindeer and Feel Good are forging a new television genreSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marina Deller, Casual Academic, Creative Writing and English Literature, Flinders University Netflix Comedy is opening up spaces for silences to be broken and trauma stories to be told. In 2018, Hannah Gadsby started a revolution with Nanette, asking audiences to rethink ...19 hours ago
- Tense office dynamics draining your soul? Kink can help with thatThe workplace can be a minefield of bad comms and passive aggression. Kinksters can help you navigate it. A friend and colleague recently gave me a compliment I loved. They told me I’d always been good at emotional communication and making people feel comfortable. “But I feel like it’s really ...19 hours ago
- Old, more polluting ships serving NZ could be a barrier to climate goalsThe Climate Change Commission is floating the idea of bringing international shipping into New Zealand's carbon-cutting targets. ...20 hours ago
- A week on, the school phone ban is (mostly) winning praiseEven if some students are now just texting on their laptops. Stewart Sowman-Lund writes in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. ...21 hours ago
- Could Wellington be the next region to ink a water deal with the government?Councils from Horowhenua, Kāpiti, Wairarapa, the Hutt Valley, Porirua and Wellington City will meet this Friday to work together on a plan for a Greater Wellington region water deal. ...21 hours ago
- Award-Winning Musician Ria Hall Announces Candidacy For Mayor Of Tauranga
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Why would the EU support Scotland in the situation if they held an unconstitutional referendum on independence when that is the very reason they opposed the Catalan independence referendum? There may well be sympathy for Scotland joining the EU AFTER it has won it's independence but the EU is unlikely going to support breaking up other nations when that could lead to problems in the EU.
Because Spain is still part of the EU? They didn’t pack their bags in a sulk like
BritainEngland did.Exactly. Also, the Scottish case for independence is much stronger than that of Catalonia.
Scotland was an independent nation until the Treaty of Union in 1706 and it retained it's own law courts.
I guess the sticking point – similar to Catalonia – is the interpretation of the Treaty of Union by the English if they refuse to allow another referendum, particularly Article one which state the union is "forever" and article 25, which says anything that violates the principles of the Treaty of Union is unlawful, which would imply that vote for independence is a violation of article one, and therefore illegitimate…
Does Catalonia have its own judicial system?
Do you really think the EU's case against Catalan independence would make sense just based on "Well Spain is part of the EU so that is why we are not for breaking up nations whereas we support the break up of the UK"? Do you not think that would both alienate people in Catalonia AND the UK?
The question of Scottish independence now turns entirely on whether or not the Scottish electorate can be persuaded their economy would be OK after leaving the union and re-joining Europe. English chauvinism means the English have few people north of the border willing to argue for union on the basis of shared affections or cultural values.
Int erms of their economy, Scotland has a well trained and educated workforce, excellent infrastructure, and would suck a lot of businesses out of Northern England and into relocating in Scotland due to being in the EU and especially by no longer being impacted by the obsession with keeping a strong pound to support the London financial sector. Even industries like ship building could possibly revive with a lower currency (the Germans and Dutch still build ships, for example). Energy – even without oil – shouldn't be a problem for Scotland, which has a lot of wind and Scottish wind power alone can already power the country alone if it were independent.
Never mind all the niceties of what treaties were signed, or by whom and when. There's the little question of where yon bonny submarines currently based at Faslane would go, or on what terms they'd stay.
Oh, and don't forget the water issues as well. A couple of beaut little poems that make the point far better than I could:
https://www.tapatalk.com/groups/larkhallremembered/poems-that-you-dont-find-in-poetry-books-t629.html
London (as an economic centre) has a vastly stronger pull on Scotland than any European city.
I don’t think Scotland will go for an unconstitutional referendum. More likely they will wait to get a constitutional referendum around 2030.
A complete guess at this point as to whether they will vote independence. Ultimately Quebec didn’t (2 times) and the issue has now fallen away.
That's now.
Let's see if the trade negotiation window slams shut just like the hard brexit happened.
and so it should.
People forget what a nasty piece of work Thatcher was. She went to Europe and demanded a rebate, that rebate was for developing deprived areas, she then gave a tax cut overwhelming flavoring wealthy Briton. I.e southern.
Europe did nothing for the north, Blair followed in Thatchers likeness, so any wonder the stats counters realized there were votes for brexit. Now you say the breakups inevitable. No. Not necessarily, if like Trump Boris also invigorates the job prospects.
You see any Democrat nominee in the U.S. is going to have to promise to keep Trump economic stimulus.
Ummm… not sure if the facts support you there. Both Newcastle and Liverpool received copious amounts of EU funding.
If it were merely economics NI would join Eire. But there is a major identity division, which while fading, that will delay this occurring.
The major issue for Scotland, now the UK is out of the EU, will be currency. Particularly if the EU requires they use the Euro.