Three final polls

Written By: - Date published: 7:15 am, September 19th, 2014 - 98 comments
Categories: conservative party, david cunliffe, election 2014, greens, internet mana party, john key, labour, national, newspapers, polls - Tags:

In the past 12 hours or so three final polls have been released and they all point to the election going down to the wire.

National was 45% in last night’s Colmar Brunton, 48.2% in this morning’s Herald digipoll and in the Stuff Ipsos poll 47.7%.

The comparable figures in these polls last election were CB 50%, HD 50.9% and the last Fairfax poll I can find before the election was 54%.  Remember National’s actual result was 47.3%.  To add to this the momentum is in the wrong way and National is clearly declining.  I would not be surprised if National ends up in the very low 40s.

Labour’s results appear to be stable being 25%, 25.9% and 26.1% respectively.  Results last time were 26%, 28% and 28% which were all close to Labour’s final result but on a low turnout.

The Greens are 12%, 11.4% and 12%.  New Zealand First is comfortably above 5% in all polls and the Conservatives are below 5% in all polls.  Internet Mana is struggling.  Dotcom’s money may have been a curse rather than a benefit.

The Herald commentary by Audrey Young really outdid itself for its obsequious nature.  A marginal change in the voting trend well within the margin of error for National during the period polled has caused Audrey to claim that Key has received a last minute bump in the poll.  You have to read down to the end to realise that National was actually down and Labour up although again within the margin of error.

My prediction is that Labour will get up to about 30%, the Greens will hold 12%, National will be equal pegging, the Conservatives will not make the threshold and it will be all up to Winston who is the next Prime Minister.  This election is going to be decided vote by vote.

And my pick of individual seats to watch with some predictions:

  • Te Tai Tokerau – Hone or Kelvin?
  • Tamaki Makaurau – Peeni Henare to win.
  • Kelston – Carmel Sepuloni to win comfortably.
  • Maungakiekie – Carol Beaumont may have the edge over Peseta Sam Lotu Iiga
  • Papakura – Jerome Mike to upset Judith Collins
  • Rotorua – Tamati Coffey to upset
  • Napier – Stuart Nash to win
  • Te Tai Hauauru – will Labour’s Rurawhe win?
  • Waiariki – I suspect Flavell will hold on.
  • Christchurch Central – Labour’s Tony Milne to win easily.
  • [edit] – and Epsom where ACT will be gone.

98 comments on “Three final polls ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. tc 1
    19 September 2014 at 7:27 am

    beaumont edging smiley sam out would be a big blow, did the boundary moves play a part there.

    I pray epsom lab/greens voters hold the nose and vote goldsmith and that troughing weasel Dunne misses out, game on.

  2. Pasupial 2
    19 September 2014 at 7:32 am

    Here’s another poll result for you:

    Over 30% of Maori don’t have landlines so using landline polling creates immense distortions. The last landline poll for the electorate during the 2011 by-election had the same result as Maori TVs and claimed Hone was only ahead of Kelvin by 1%, Hone ended up beating Kelvin by 9%… Here are the results of the independent poll using a mix of landline and online polling… a result far more in favour of Hone with a 44% lead over Kelvin’s 27%.

    http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/09/19/exclusive-te-tai-tokerau-independent-poll-44-hone-27-kelvin-vs-maori-tv-poll-38-hone-37-kelvin/#sthash.8aRvy1EL.dpuf

    Note that even if you add all the Labour, MP & NZF vote together you only get 45% against HH’s 44% – and that is just not going to happen. However, one caveat is that this poll dates from July – before some candidates had even been announced. I imagine the current figures are being held confidential to the IMPs (as are other parties internal polling numbers).

    I disagree that; “Dotcom’s money may have been a curse rather than a benefit”. If nothing else, it was KDC who facilitated the Moment of Truth Greenwald/ Snowden revelations. Also, that money is not just being squandered on this election; it is the core of a fund that will be used over the next few years to help the IMP alliance through its start-up phase until it is a self-sustaining organisation.

    • Te Reo Putake 2.1
      19 September 2014 at 7:45 am

      Yeah, right! Who made this poll up? Bomber Bradbury?

      • Pasupial 2.1.1
        19 September 2014 at 8:37 am

        TRP

        I did find it through TDB, but I do not believe that Bomber fabricated these results. It is a bit out of date, and no doubt selected to present a positive view of Harawira’s chances in the electorate. Remember that HH has beaten Labour candidates four times in a row in this electorate (Samuels in 2005, Davis in 2008 and twice in 2011) each time with MSM polls predicting his failure.

        The current scheme to unseat Harawira will fail because the Paenga (MP) is unwilling to acquiesce to; National NZF and Flavell’s scheme, to gift the seat to the Labour-right candidate. Also, at this stage of advance voting, 20% of total votes will already have been cast.

    • Tautoko Viper 2.2
      19 September 2014 at 8:04 am

      Pasupial, I agree with your post.
      I am fed up with the fact that money for the right parties is considered in a positive light, but money going to a party supporting policies of social justice is spun as being dirty and unethical. My view is that Dotcom’s contribution will be going to a far better cause than Alan Gibb’s donation money to Act whose policies if implemented would require the well off to live in fortresses protected by razorwire.

      The act of a rich person giving money to a progressive party is seen by the rich as treason using the same type of false reasoning that was applied when it was suggested that David Cunliffe was being hypocritical in supporting the poor when he lived in a “leafy suburb of Herne Bay”.
      Using this reasoning, only pregnant pigs would be able to protest about sow stalls.

      • Lanthanide 2.2.1
        19 September 2014 at 8:51 am

        “Using this reasoning, only pregnant pigs would be able to protest about sow stalls.

        Of course, that’s just how the right want to frame it. They want to keep sow stalls, as well.

    • Chooky 2.3
      19 September 2014 at 8:34 am

      +100 Pasupial…the Left will WIN!…John Key is on the way out!

  3. Lanthanide 3
    19 September 2014 at 7:35 am

    I think it’s unlikely labour will get much above 27%. If the conservatives get in, which I don’t think they will, then National will have won. I bet they’re really regretting not dropping the threshold to 4%

  4. Tania 4
    19 September 2014 at 7:38 am

    Feeling very optimistic that we are going to greatly improve than the 25%

    • Chris 4.1
      19 September 2014 at 8:44 am

      It would’ve been a lot more if IMP’s strategy included keeping Dotcom away from the limelight and concentrating on creating a viable alternative as we saw a glimpse of when Laila was named as leader of IP. Hager’s book and the Greenwald revelations could’ve then had a proper impact and shifted support away from Key naturally towards the left. Instead Dotcom has damaged the left so much even Hone’s seat isn’t safe now. The best thing for Dotcom to have done to achieve his goal of ousting Key was to have remained a silent backer and kept his own personal shit including his image and his ego well away from the task at hand. Could’ve worked, Laila and Hone, but it’s unfortunately been a big strategic stuff up.

      • weka 4.1.1
        19 September 2014 at 9:35 am

        Have you considered that KDC is a draw card for the people likely to vote for IP?

        • Chris 4.1.1.1
          19 September 2014 at 10:10 am

          That would for some still be the case whether Dotcom stayed behind the scenes or not. His ego being pushed into people’s faces will for others be more of a turn off than a drawcard.

          • weka 4.1.1.1.1
            19 September 2014 at 10:27 am

            I don’t think so. The demographic they are doing after are either likely to find KDC a plus, or not care about his ego.

            If KDC was off the scence, they would just find something else to smear Harawira with.

            • Chris 4.1.1.1.1.1
              19 September 2014 at 11:51 am

              Well, I guess everything’s just inevitable, then, really. Eh?

              • weka …
                19 September 2014 at 12:01 pm

                No. How we take part in the creation of the narrative is important. And how we resist the biased narratives from those in the MSM who are still taking part in the smears is also important.

            • Chris 4.1.1.1.1.2
              19 September 2014 at 12:32 pm

              I don’t think so. The demographic they are doing after are either likely to find KDC a plus, or not care about his ego.”

              I don’t disagree there are people in that demographic who would think in those ways, but the question when looking at strategy isn’t about whether certain groups exist, it’s about what strategy will help get the message out to the most people. So after deciding to merge I think there would be more people turned off from voting IMP by Dotcom’s ego than there would be who’d be encouraged or drawn in by it to vote. There will be young techie internet people who would vote IMP anyway, but Dotcom’s ego will turn an awful lot of Mana voters away. And given they’re the same party for the purpose of this election one goes either up or down with the other.

              So what I’m saying is that a strategy that includes a very upfront in-your-face involvement of Dotcom will prove to be the wrong strategy to create the narrative that I’m guessing you and I both want. I sincerely hope I’m wrong but things don’t look good for IMP Inc.

              • weka …
                19 September 2014 at 12:58 pm

                I guess we can talk about it on Sunday 😉 but while I do have some reservations about KDC’s ego myself, I think much of the anti-KDC stuff is off. It sounds like a different version of the stuff that gets thrown at Hawawira.

                From what I saw, KDC fronted the IP, not IMP. I would expect that Mana will reach its Måori voters through its own channels, and non-Måori potential Mana voters should know better than to let hype trump substance. If KDC were standing for parliament I might agree with you, but given he’s the reason that both the IP and the IMP exist I don’t think we can have it both ways.

                Edit, but come to think of it, KDC didn’t even front IP, mostly I saw Laila. KDC did the roadshow, but I don’t think he did much media did?

                • Chris …
                  19 September 2014 at 2:15 pm

                  “If KDC were standing for parliament I might agree with you, but given he’s the reason that both the IP and the IMP exist I don’t think we can have it both ways.”

                  Just because he put his money up doesn’t mean the IMP strategy should include either plastering his image around things IMP or letting that happen via the media. The strategy should have included doing everything possible to have Dotcom away from all media attention, including the “moment of truth” stuff (and I know that wasn’t IMP). He or his money being the reason IP and IMP exist doesn’t mean things couldn’t have been different. Dotcom et al ought to have had the smarts to have actively made the separation. One doesn’t necessarily follow the other – it was a conscious choice – who’s choice exactly I don’t know. Maybe it was a collective decision done thinking it would help the party? I don’t know, but I think it was the wrong choice and that it has negative effects on a number of levels, including internal consternation that can only help to lose votes, too.

                  And it’s not only votes from potential Mana voters that are affected. The desired effect from, for example, the Greenwald stuff one would hope would be a general shift to the left, which would mean Labour and the Greens would pick up votes from disenchanted fringe-dwellling National voters, maybe even not so fringe-dwelling National voters. Dotcom stuffed that up completely which then took attention away from the material Greenwald and Snowden were talking about. They weren’t the fizzers Dotcom was but it Dotcom’s behaviour that tarred the whole affair. That was just dumb.

                  So, for me, as far as this topic is concerned, they should’ve kept Dotcom well and truly in the background well away from everything political, whether it was IP or IMP or the roadshow or even the moment of bloody truth. His ego and desire to be in the forefront has nothing to give and all the potential in the world to stuff things up. If ousting John Key is really his number one objective then I think he’s a strategic bloody light-weight with too much money.

                  • weka …
                    19 September 2014 at 2:28 pm

                    The thing that turned me around on KDC was watching him give his submission on the GCSB bill last year. The man is smart, articulate, focussed. He knows his stuff, and he has that ability to work with power that many people don’t have. He’s not afraid of power coming back at him either. He is also funny, seems to enjoy life, and is relatively generous. That he has a big ego, and is still too enmired in the rich man’s game doesn’t negate the good things he is doing. That’s how I personally feel. Beyond that, they’re a new party who are figuring out things as they go, and have achieved a tremendous amount in the short time they have been going. At this stage, based on everything else I have seen, I trust them to be making good decisions for their party that match their own ideas about what they want to have happen (ditto the GP, who I vote for).

                    As for his presence, I think having him at the roadshows was crucial. He shouldn’t have been on the stage at the MoT. I can’t see how or why he should have been completely out of the media eye, other than the perception thing, which as I said strikes me as very similar to what people say about Harawira.

                    KDC’s ego is no bigger than say Peters’, it’s just he’s got a different personality.

                    But let’s see what happens. I’m guessing somewhere between 3 and 4%. What are you thinking?

                    • Chris …
                      19 September 2014 at 3:02 pm

                      Some attacks on Dotcom are no doubt as shallow as what many make on Hone, but it’s what’s going on for Dotcom in his personal life, the criminal charges that is, that influence voters. Hone doesn’t have anything like that hanging over him. I’ve got absolutely no problems with Dotcom’s past or his current charges, none whatsoever, apart from how they may affect votes for IMP so it was only from when Mana became part of IMP I began to care about what Dotcom did because his background and disposition are things that do potentially affect Mana’s future. Before IMP I didn’t care a jot what he did and in fact I enjoyed his taunts towards key and his other anti-government antics. He was good at the select committee, too, which was before IMP but importantly he had a right in his personal capacity to do and which he did well. For me it’s not about whether I like him or not or whether his ego’s as big as Peters’. It’s about removing as many barriers as possible that are in the way of booting key out.

                      I hope I’m wrong and that the growing culture of cell phones replacing landlines is masking a massive anti-key sentiment that we’ll only get to see tomorrow. Mana on 5.3%.

  5. Te Reo Putake 5
    19 September 2014 at 7:39 am

    My best guess: Nat 44, Labour 29, Greens 11, NZF 9, Cons 4.

    No UF or mana. but ACT win Epsom. Labour win the bulk of the marginals. Chch returns to red republic status.

    A stable Labour led Gov’t with Winston as Deputy PM and Tracey Martin a minister. Greens get ministerial posts, too, but maybe outside cabinet.

    • Lanthanide 5.1
      19 September 2014 at 8:29 am

      Think you’re a bit low on the Greens, and CHCH is going to be decidedly red/green now.

    • Chris 5.2
      19 September 2014 at 8:47 am

      With Green posts inside cabinet as it becomes obvious to the general populace that Green policies work and are generally accepted as good.

      • Lanthanide 5.2.1
        19 September 2014 at 8:49 am

        “With Green posts inside cabinet as it becomes obvious to the general populace that Green policies work and are generally accepted as good.”

        Doesn’t really matter what the public think if NZFirst’s coalition agreement requires Greens stay outside cabinet permanently.

        • Chris 5.2.1.1
          19 September 2014 at 3:05 pm

          Winston’s a gambling horse-trading wildman. Everything’s up grabs when Winston’s involved. That’s what’s good about him and that’s what’s bad about him.

  6. eszett 6
    19 September 2014 at 7:39 am

    My prediction is that Labour will get up to about 30%

    A whole lot of wishful thinking went into that equation.

  7. Tracey 7
    19 September 2014 at 7:41 am

    Papakura – Jerome Mike to upset Judith Collins ???

    No prediction for Ohariu Mickey, do you thnk Dunne will take it again?

    I thought I read yesterday that IPSOS had Nats at 54%?

    I am hoping that Epsom people thinking Nats wont need ACT will see Seymour gone…

    • mickysavage 7.1
      19 September 2014 at 7:50 am

      The feedback I have received from Papakura is that a whole lot of people are really annoyed with their MP.

      Ohariu – not sure.

      Epsom? The election could depend on that result.

      • Tracey 7.1.1
        19 September 2014 at 7:56 am

        big front page spread online at stuff.co.nz Ad for Nats…

      • Tracey 7.1.2
        19 September 2014 at 8:00 am

        Thanks.

        I retract my 54% that was the poll for Nats two weeks ago AFTER the Collins resignation… so they got a wee bounce for her pretending to leave the game and yet now they have dropped 6% since then?

      • Skinny 7.1.3
        19 September 2014 at 10:13 am

        Your out on Epsom chap. Your also very silent on Hamilton West, history says who wins West rules the roost. Which if National win is indicative of where Labour are going wrong. I mean how a preacher Nat MP can vote for the ‘dirty’ SkyDeal and not have his political career wiped out is beyond me. And yes the Nats are polling well ahead.

        Anyway moving on the Labour party vote is yearning into life with daily rises yes and with the voters coming out I expect 28% minimum and as high as 32% if we get out the foot soldiers to go house to house in the poorer suburbs.

        The Labour & Green teams should have coordinated coming together to put their resources together in the final push this week.

        • ScottGN 7.1.3.1
          19 September 2014 at 7:39 pm

          The old First Past the Post adage that says that “where Hamilton West goes the country goes” expired with the advent of MMP I reckon. The boundaries of that seat have been pushed well out in to the rural West Waikato – natural territory for National. Amongst other indicators I’d be more inclined to look to Christchurch tomorrow night to see whether or not the swing to National at the last election is reverting back to Labour.

  8. Flat Eric 8
    19 September 2014 at 7:44 am

    Remember:

    A Vote For National

    Is A Vote For

    A Stable Dictatorship

  9. RedBaronCV 9
    19 September 2014 at 7:47 am

    Love this game. Nact 40.5%, greens 17%, Lab 32% NZF 9 % Cons 3% IMP- 4 % +TTT & Waiariki, NAct epsom, labour Ohariu

    • bearded git 9.1
      19 September 2014 at 8:33 am

      can u make this happen please red-osmosis anyone?

    • Liberal Realist 9.2
      19 September 2014 at 7:33 pm

      +1000! My picks are almost exactly the same!

      Act losing Epsom would really be doing the country a favour and if ‘The Hair’ trougher Dunne lost Ohariu I will be overjoyed.

  10. dv 10
    19 September 2014 at 7:58 am

    OK what happens if Craig (or Peters) gets 4.99%. final count
    Can there be a judicial recount?

    If so what is counted?
    All the party votes?

  11. Tracey 11
    19 September 2014 at 8:03 am

    Nats 44%
    Labour 29%
    Greens 14%
    NZFirst 8%
    CP 3.9%
    IMP 2.8%

    MANA win with Hone
    MP 2 seats
    Ohariu = the worlds cheapest seller
    Epsom – Seymour

    • Chris 11.1
      19 September 2014 at 10:15 am

      But Cunliffe’s ruled Hone out.

      • CrashCart 11.1.1
        19 September 2014 at 11:04 am

        He has ruled him out of being part of Government. He has said that he is willing to negotiate on confidence and supply, therefore IMP becomes important as to who the next PM is.

      • Tracey 11.1.2
        19 September 2014 at 2:08 pm

        Doesntchange that i think hone will win tai tokerau.

        That nats and nzf arent standing anyone but are saying vote forvkelvin is enough to make me want hone to win.

  12. Tanz 12
    19 September 2014 at 8:09 am

    The Conservatives are polling above four per cent, higher sometimes, and are expected to pick up swing voters on the day. So don’t count them out yet. Winston is a conservative at heart, he will most likely pick National if he is made Kingmaker.
    A really interesting election!!

    Colin Craig is just another person, he is a nice guy, nothing scary about him, by the way!

    • One Anonymous Bloke 12.1
      19 September 2014 at 8:31 am

      🙄

      You can tell Winston will go with the criminal party because he’s been endorsing a Labour candidate.

      These nuts are stale. Where are the fresh ones?

      • weka 12.1.1
        19 September 2014 at 9:39 am

        You can tell Peters will go with whichever party he wants depending on how much he gets his own way in negotiations with each side.

    • Lanthanide 12.2
      19 September 2014 at 8:32 am

      “Colin Craig is just another person, he is a nice guy”

      And yet one of his closest confidantes describes him as “a manipulative man”.

      • Tracey 12.2.1
        19 September 2014 at 8:38 am

        closest confidantes who is a very good friend of that friend of the national party, Barry Soper. Whatever the truth of the situation… I smell something Slaterish

    • Tracey 12.3
      19 September 2014 at 8:32 am

      Comar Brunton has them at 4%
      DigiPoll has them on 3.3
      Couldnt find IPSOS

  13. Tania 13
    19 September 2014 at 8:11 am

    Love this analysis looks like national may end up in the low 40% following past trends and not taking in possible increase in voter turn out. http://polity.co.nz/content/shameful-innumerate-reporting-herald-poll

  14. ScottGN 14
    19 September 2014 at 8:15 am

    I notice that the so-called experts at iPredict just won’t give up on their baby the ACT Party. They currently have ACT to get 2% even though the party has barely managed to get above 0.5% in any poll since the last election. I guess there’s not much incentive for Epsom voters to vote for Seymour if it just generates another overhang seat?

    • Lanthanide 14.1
      19 September 2014 at 8:34 am

      Yip, I think that’s a clear case of bias on iPredict for Act.

      They say that ‘online polling’ shows them much higher, and they’re very popular with the asian vote. They might just scrape in 2 MPs, but it’ll be tight.

      Still not convinced they’ve got it in the bag anyway, since tactical voting from Greens/Labour last election would’ve seen Banks not win the seat, and we have the added spoiler of Christine this time. On the other hand Seymour has gone into all-out overdrive with his door knocking.

      • Tracey 14.1.1
        19 September 2014 at 8:40 am

        someone at iPredict will have access tot he internal Epsom polling… and will us eit to try and make money

        he hasn’t knocked on the doors in my street. he did hold a meeting at the house up the road… I was washing my hair that night… strand by strand…

  15. lurgee 15
    19 September 2014 at 8:17 am

    Nat 43.5%
    Labour 27.5%
    Greens 13%
    NZF 7%
    Con 4%
    IMP 2% and holding Te Tai Tokerau
    Maori 1% but holding two Maori seats
    ACT, UF <1% but holding electorates

    • Skinny 15.1
      19 September 2014 at 11:14 am

      Pretty close there lurgee, however you maybe over selling the Nats who probably will tank and get only as high as 42%. Your also under predicting Labour who should pull closer to 30% purely on their solid policy platform which I know is attracting the vote of previous non voters. Also Internet/Mana should rise to 3.0% as with NZF to 8%. I actually see the Conservatives getting just on 5% as New Zealand is full of Bible bashers. Dirty Dunne has done his dash so he is out and the rich will vote ACT in enough numbers to protect their financial interests, so expect Whyte to become an MP also.

      I just know the Left campaign has been too disjointed and not enough of a combined effort went into enrolling the punters. With all the campaign teams too focused on standing street waving, which I’ve always found idiotic outside of the final week of election campaigning. No disrepect but the much vaunted CTU campaign has been a bit flop mainly because Unionism is failing in this Country, so perhaps it is time for a much more militant Leader should the incumbent regime retain power. But hey let’s hope I am completely wrong. I never give up so I’m off to enroll some more slackers in my electorate.

      Every vote counts!

  16. Cleangreen 16
    19 September 2014 at 8:20 am

    Our Poll result shows on the ground Labour are gaining popularity post Dirty Politics and KeySpygate issues.

    Our prediction Labour will reach over 30% greens 14% NZ First 12.5%, totalling 56.5 % of the vote.

    This will a stable government taking NZ to a far better place thankfully.

    Gone will be the stench of Dirty Politics and Spygate that has cast a cloud over our country and permeated the NZ Political scene over the last two terms.

    This will require all young new voters to get out and vote, and if achieved they (the young new voter ) will be hailed as the new champion of NZ going forward as they should be embraced as our future hope for our country and not marginalised as they are to date.

    Go our young get out and vote for our better future please.

  18. sabine 18
    19 September 2014 at 9:02 am

    help me out here

    break down of the polls by

    region
    gender
    race
    age
    previous voters
    undecided voters

    are not really stipulated in any of the polls, or i am just not finding the information.

    the fine print at the Colmar Brunt Poll states that 11% of the polled did not reveal their indication to vote or for whom. That is a large segment? No?

    are these polls worth anything at all? I am looking back at the Obama/Romney upset, which had all the pollsters bar Nathan Silver from the fivethirtyeight.blog on the New York Time. This article dates to 2012….
    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/

    one of the follow ups on his prediction from the Guardian in Nov . 2012
    http://www.theguardian.com/science/grrlscientist/2012/nov/08/nate-sliver-predict-us-election

    could the prospected win of National be wish full thinking, reflected in the polls to entice further votes for national?

    • weka 18.1
      19 September 2014 at 9:50 am

      Yes, all the pre-election polls are misleading because of the undecideds and IMO skew the election as you suggest. If the MSM tell people that National is going to win, then why bother voting? This is what happened at the last election and think had an impact on the low voter turn out.

      National is not a done deal by any means, hence their panic this week. Get out and vote!

  19. Undecided 19
    19 September 2014 at 9:03 am

    I think that, unfortunately, Colin craig will make 5% based on the amount of religious types who almost seem as if they want to be martyrs (to anything) so the more Colin is laughed at the more it reinforces their belief in him

    I predict:
    National 42-43%,
    Labour 27-28%
    Greens 13-14% (my choice)
    NZFirst 8-9%
    Conservatives 5-5.5%

    no one else even close to 5% but Maori Party will win two seats, Dunne will win his, Act will get their seat and Kelvin Davis will take out Hone

    The real question is will Winston go with anyone or will he sit on the benches and have whoevers in power come to him to get anything passed

  20. s y d 20
    19 September 2014 at 9:59 am

    subliminal messaging on Stuff?
    ‘It’s ours to lose’….’Nats down, Labour Up’

    well, not that subliminal really….go the AB’s and all that shizzle. Richie has the troty..

  21. Ad 21
    19 September 2014 at 11:04 am

    My minimum, in parliamentary seats:

    National 55
    Labour 33
    Greens 16
    NZF 12
    UF 1
    Mana 2
    Maori 1
    Act. 1

    Winston goes with the Goodies, all is well

    Or:
    Not preferred:
    Conservatives over 5%
    See you in 2017

  22. steve 22
    19 September 2014 at 11:32 am

    Mickey Mouse, you are living in LaLa Land my friend, Labour has not polled above 25%
    all campaign, my suggestion to labour, get rid of Cunliffe, no-one likes him, hes false, rehearsed and insincere, get back on message and stop the nasty left attacks that we have seen since the Clarke reign, make a stand on coalition partners, Mana yes/No if we need them, they will not be part of a Labour led Government yeah right Tui add,
    drop the capital gains tax, thats been your killer this election among other things.
    Kiwis like a leader they could have a beer with at a BBQ, Key is down to earth, dorky,
    but genuine, Cunliffe is a muppet that looks and sounds like an evangelist preaching to his minions, (think the boy preacher in the movie There will be blood)
    i will be glad to see this election over, Dotcom gone, Haire gone, pity Winnie is still there, hes a fossil living in the 50’s, roll on Saturday for a forward thinking National led government. (lets face it, 50% of the voting population want Key so you guys are a minor party on 25% and the greens are the socialist wing of Labour pretending to be environmentally conscious)

    • Tracey 22.1
      19 September 2014 at 2:13 pm

      thats ten minutes of your life you will never get back

      • steve 22.1.1
        19 September 2014 at 3:15 pm

        yeah but aint it the truth!
        round up for tomorrow
        Nats 50%
        labour 22%
        greens 12%
        Winston 6.0%
        Con 5.0%
        IMP 1%
        Maori 3%
        ACT 1%
        seeya Winston seeya Hone seeya DC

        • Tracey 22.1.1.1
          19 September 2014 at 3:18 pm

          I’m selling a bridge Steve, interested?

          • steve 22.1.1.1.1
            19 September 2014 at 3:24 pm

            nah but dotcom might be

            • One Anonymous Bloke 22.1.1.1.1.1
              19 September 2014 at 3:27 pm

              In a little over 24 hours I’ll be rubbing your face in the actual result 😆

              • steve …
                19 September 2014 at 3:38 pm

                yep, another deluded lefty

                • One Anonymous Bloke …
                  19 September 2014 at 3:47 pm

                  Another citizen handicapped by right wing brain structure.

                  • steve …
                    19 September 2014 at 3:55 pm

                    well may the best man win, i believe both have NZ’s best intentions at heart, no denying who the majority of kiwis want back in though.
                    its a sad state when a liar sitting on 8% can dictate the outcome.
                    pretty easy to make sweeping promises when you will never be held accountable, and your constituents will never remember anyway!

                    • One Anonymous Bloke …
                      19 September 2014 at 4:05 pm

                      Pretty sad that a serial liar was the Prime Minister for the last six years, and even sadder that mendacity is the least destructive of his actions.

                      Worse, for the civil society he has waged war upon. Rebuilding takes longer than destroying.

                      I hope the Ombudsman stays safe and has good security and support, because they’ll be coming after her.

  23. William Kind 23
    19 September 2014 at 12:36 pm

    Our poll, analysing real world communications, gives this result:

    Labour…. 41%
    Greens…. 19%
    NZF…. 15%
    National…15%
    I/M…. 06%
    Others…. 04%

    Believe what you will. But beware predictive programming.

  24. steve 24
    19 September 2014 at 4:30 pm

    geez you are really a bitter and twisted individual, do you work?
    its sounding almost Jihadist.
    do you really believe in the supposed mass surveillance?
    common thinking in the real world is that some surveillance is necessary to stop
    the deviant pedophiles swapping kiddy porn, or to stop the maniacs cutting the heads off people that dont subscribe to their beliefs….not to check what shampoo you are buying for your dog or who your facebook friends might be.
    “The civil society he has waged war on” please, get your head out of your ass!

    • One Anonymous Bloke 24.1
      19 September 2014 at 6:47 pm

      Why compare apples with oranges? The Police already have many powers to deal with criminals of all varieties, and if you knew anything about real enforcement agencies, you’d understand why they hold spooks in such low regard.

      Do you understand what is meant by the phrase “civil society”? I wonder if you understood Greenwald’s reference to the Law Society in this context.

      Pull your head off, it’s of no concern to me.

  25. yeshe 25
    19 September 2014 at 4:35 pm

    is that you Jason ??

    • blue leopard 25.1
      19 September 2014 at 5:04 pm

      lol 🙂

      • yeshe 25.1.1
        19 September 2014 at 7:59 pm

        Key:

        No Colin, stop it. don’t be silly.
        Ekshully, I did not say the Garden of Eden is a problem.
        I said the guarding of Ede in my office is a problem.

        lol 😀

      • yeshe 25.1.2
        19 September 2014 at 11:24 pm

        @blue leopard .. we were not so far off ! I see LPrent has permanently banned ‘Steve’ and it seems it was Slater !! ( over on Lynn’s Have A Happy and Legal Election Day)

        • blue leopard 25.1.2.1
          21 September 2014 at 2:33 pm

          lol thanks for the updates, I read this later when we were in the blackout. I LMAO. You were scarily close!

  26. Dont worry. Be happy 26
    19 September 2014 at 5:53 pm

    John Key will declare himself the winner very early on the night ….if it looks close, to immediate and thunderous adulation from the usual suspects. Attempts to dislodge him will be met with howls of sore losers. Those strategically placed to enable this will do as they have been primed to do ( the G.G) Would a Government that plays this dirty concede? Think Bush. It worked for him. Why wouldnt it work for Key?

  27. outofbed 27
    19 September 2014 at 6:10 pm

    National 43.5
    Labour 26.5
    Greens 15
    NZF 6
    IM 2
    cons 4
    m 2
    act 1