TV3: Labour clawing back National’s lead in latest poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:50 pm, August 24th, 2008 - 31 comments
Categories: election 2008, polls - Tags:

According to TV3

“Labour is on the move. The latest 3 News poll shows that less than three months out from the election, their support is heading upwards.

And once you add the Greens and the Maori Party into the mix, a Labour-led coalition is not out of the running just yet.”

Why will this be a morale boost to parties of the centre/left?

“Take these results into Parliament and John Key’s National can almost govern alone with 60 seats. It would need Act’s three seats to get it across the line.”

On these results John Key might just have to accept Sir Roger Douglas into his Cabinet, with Hide saying “I would have Roger Douglas in Cabinet in a heartbeat.” TV3 goes onto point out that:

“The poll results show how tight it really is under MMP: in opposition, Labour would have 46 seats, the Greens seven, Maori four, Jim Anderton’s Progressives one and United Future also with one.

That adds up to 59 seats, proof National can not afford a bad campaign…”

There’s no doubt that Labour still has a fight on its hands, but it knows it can portray itself as still in the running:

“So while this is still Key’s and National’s election to lose, Clark is heading in the right direction, and as far as recent polls go, she will consider this 11-point gap close. And for Key, it’s not sleepless nights yet, but it’s not exactly sleep-easy.”

Parliament returns this week. The bear pit is always intense and Labour will be determined to prove itself.

31 comments on “TV3: Labour clawing back National’s lead in latest poll ”

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  1. dad4justice 1
    24 August 2008 at 7:38 pm

    Labour clawing back is a bit like a sparrow fart in a hurricane.
    Suck the kumara lemon face.

  2. lprent 2
    24 August 2008 at 8:10 pm

    And thank you for those wise words, d4j. But this is good news.

    I don’t put much credence in the actual numbers in polls, but I am interested in trends. There has been a trend in the early august polls for labour to go up. And we’re still a way out from the election. I suspect that the polls will keep moving Labour’s way.

    It is going to be an interesting election, and almost certainly an even more interesting coalition formation at the end of it.

    It is noticeable that National support in the polls definitely looks like it is moving down under 50%, and I consider that that support is overrated. Quite simply a lot of people haven’t made up their minds. So much for governing outright…

  3. Draco TB 3
    24 August 2008 at 9:05 pm

    NZ has been leaning left for decades. The only reason that National could win was because of the gerrymandered FPP system that we had. Now that we’ve got a proportional electoral system we’re getting the government that we actually vote for.

    I fully expect another Labour led government this year. Hopefully with a greater selection of left leaning parties in there.

  4. Dan 4
    24 August 2008 at 9:06 pm

    A reassuring movement in the polls, and a predictable response from DFJ, whose outlook and motivation is what the Nats rely on.
    I saw the Hollow Men documentary this evening, and it was a visual reminder of the substance of the book. I was expecting people to be acting the roles of the central figures in the process, but was very pleasantly surprised to see all were the real people talking to the media in the leadup to the last election. The hundreds of hours that went into finding the news clips and documentary evidence are mindblowing.
    The main usefulness of the film is to highlight the fact the Nats are still playing the same game they played last time.The positive Mr Key, after the last election and on being newly elected to head the opposition, says quite emphatically that there is no way he would use Crosby Textor. There is the same avoidance of policy; the same repetition of lines from American or British elections; the same targetting of Clark.
    Compared to the graphs shown for the last election, the Left is further behind on these results tonight. However, the vibes I am getting from others are that the nice guy Mr Key is really the smarmy Mr Key who, like Brash, is ACT in drag. And he is all they have at present. The advertising package for Key is almost identical to Brash.
    As the Nats gradually let their MPs off the leash to try to show they are a party with something to offer, I was interested in Williamson this morning on Agenda. His earnestness for their infrastructure policies reminded me very much of Bradford and his electricity reforms. The Nats will have to watch their final one-liners! When asked about his likely Cabinet portfolio, he laughed it off with “You never know, it might be Woman’s Affairs.” And they are trying to prove they are worthy of the female vote!
    I think there will be interesting dynamic in this election: the tide is going to go out for National in a big way. The reasons:no policies (at best Labour-lite); a movement to ACT of the those on the right of National; a movement of the NZ First waverers to Helen; and a big turnout of those who are afraid of losing Kiwisaver, Kiwibank, ACC, family payouts etc.
    Spread the word: see the film. The clawing back of the lead needs to gain momentum to prevent the Hollow Men ever getting near the running of this country.

  5. outofbed 5
    24 August 2008 at 11:05 pm

    Only surprise really is that the Nats are not moving down
    However still a few months to go. And one would have to back Helen in an election campaign against Key
    And will all the campaigning National MP’s be able to stick to the script in the hurly burly of the campaign? I doubt it
    Looking good I would say

  6. Roger 6
    24 August 2008 at 11:14 pm

    At 49% National’s support at the top end is likely to be soft. Under FPP elections it tended to get between 39% and 43%. For a three term government Labour’s support is still holding up well. In the current climate its seems more probable that if National’s support begins to slip a little it will be to parties of the centre -rather than the Left. It could then depend on what margin there is between National+ACT and Labour+Greens.

  7. dave 7
    24 August 2008 at 11:28 pm

    Now that we’ve got a proportional electoral system we’re getting the government that we actually vote for.
    Except we don’t vote for a Government anymore. We vote for a Parliament.

  8. Steve Pierson 8
    24 August 2008 at 11:39 pm

    dave. we always voted for a parliament – the Government governs with the confidence of parliament and its members are drawn from parliament – that has been the way for centuries.. seems to me you’re just playing semantics to invent a difference that is somehow meant to be meaningful but isn’t.

  9. Ari 9
    25 August 2008 at 5:30 am

    Except we don’t vote for a Government anymore. We vote for a Parliament.

    One of the side-effects of a system with more than two functional parties is that coalitions are likely to have shifting memberships. We still vote for which parties and MPs are in Parliament to make up the Government, it’s just that unless we vote for parties in such a way that only one is capable of forming a governing coalition, there are multiple possible governments from one set of votes. This is actually a good thing, as it’s possible for the governing coalition to change due to confidence issues without needing another general election.

    Also- colour me amused that they’re not counting UF with National.

  10. Billy 10
    25 August 2008 at 9:05 am

    So, Steve, I am interested. Is the secret tapes “scandal” now fully measured in the poll results? If so, National sure took a hammering, falling exactly zero points. Or will we have to wait a while longer until it’s full toll is exacted? If so, how long, exactly.

  11. lprent 11
    25 August 2008 at 9:33 am

    Billy:

    The poll of 1000 voters was taken between August 14 and August 20

    So there was between 10 days and 15 days for it to sink in. I’d say that a chunk of it was in there. You usually find that it takes 2-3 weeks for most political events to show in the polls in any significant way.

    In this case no change for National in this particular poll is quite good. I can’t be sure, but I seem to remember that this poll has been showing steady rises for the Nats. Of course it hasn’t been quite so ‘exorbitant’ as some of the other polls.

    A few more polls later in the month would start to get interesting. At present we don’t have a lot of info on trends. In particular have the Nats stalled and Labour starting to reverse the slide. So far it is a cautious ‘maybe’.

    If so then this is really bad news for National. They have to figure out how to put a coalition together. Not easy with their constituency.

  12. yl 12
    25 August 2008 at 9:47 am

    Billy,

    the public finding out about National’s secret agenda is just the start. It is not a one off event. The public will start to put the puzzle pieces together themselves over time.

    The secret agenda was not a one off event. We have already heard talks of tolls on roads around Auckland yesterday on agenda

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/story.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10528807

    With Maurice Williamson saying that they could cost a person up to $50 a week. (there goes national tax cuts).

    Evidence of the secret agenda is only just starting. We have three exciting months a head to see whether it will cost the National party.

  13. higherstandard 13
    25 August 2008 at 10:00 am

    yl

    Have you read the article ?

  14. andy 14
    25 August 2008 at 10:00 am

    yl

    $50 a week, Bbzzzzzzzzzzzzzzt, wrong!

    Bill English was on Nat Radio (nine to noon) this morning and directly refuted all of Williamsons statements.

    Another National spokesperson got it wrong, again!

  15. yl 15
    25 August 2008 at 10:17 am

    Andy,

    was just going by what the article said…

    “Maurice Williamson, said yesterday that commuters could face bills of up to $50 a week for tolls of $3 to $5 a trip on new motorways or similar “roads of national importance”

    If Bill English is on Nat Radio saying that Williamson got it wrong then there are clearly communication issues within National.

    I think that 3 months out from an election it is important for the transport spokesperson to be able to discuss their post election policy.

  16. andy 16
    25 August 2008 at 10:29 am

    yl

    Sorry, was having a snark. Podcast is up:

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/podcasts/ninetonoon.rss

  17. Pascal's bookie 17
    25 August 2008 at 10:38 am

    That’s a funny sort of detail to get wrong. Did English say Williamson mispoke, or made it up, or what?

    What about the tolls on the harbour bridge thing? Still the plan or did English overule that one as well?

    Williamson’s comments make sense. If you are going to fund new infrastructure with PPP’s you will prob’ly need tolls. These will need to collect more money that it costs to collect them to make it work. This means they will soon add up. It also means that existing alternate routes also need tolls otherwise not enough people will use the costly new routes to make the whole thing work.

    What did Billy boy say to resolve this? (not the intelligently wrong Standard commenter, the one from southland)

  18. Pascal's bookie 18
    25 August 2008 at 10:39 am

    thanks andy

  19. outofbed 19
    25 August 2008 at 11:37 am

    So what’s the point of National having spokespeople on anything?
    When ever any one of them opens their gob they are contradicted by Key or English
    Secret Agenda ? It’s looking extremely hard to believe anything else

  20. Matthew Pilott 20
    25 August 2008 at 11:41 am

    Billy,

    “Or will we have to wait a while longer until it’s full toll is exacted?”

    The Baby Jeebers wept.

  21. Billy 21
    25 August 2008 at 11:57 am

    Oh my God! I am more ashamed than Gary Glitter.

  22. Policy Parrot 22
    25 August 2008 at 1:01 pm

    PPP’s prove to be White Elephants. Very few people used the under-Sydney road tunnel while it was tolled.

    Even as internet polling indicates (NZHerald), which is usually considerably biased towards higher-income employment, people simply aren’t interested in paying for what their taxes should be paying for.

    This is simply a method of burden-shifting from income-tax to user-pays. If people were paid (by way of public transport subsidy) to stay off the roads such anti-congestion construction would prove unnecessary.

  23. Rob 23
    25 August 2008 at 1:02 pm

    One Good Poll out of about 20 and I guess you will believe this one and all the other Polls well they were just crap polls. Talk about selective memory you guys are unbelievable

  24. randal 24
    25 August 2008 at 1:16 pm

    the polls are moving and national is going down so that is hardly selective memory and in fact the movement of polls is a separate category altogether from memory. anyway the result is that national is on the way down and by the time of the election all their nasty mealy, mouthed politicing will be buried in the tide of history

  25. Patrick 25
    25 August 2008 at 1:24 pm

    Wrong again Rob.

    Check out Farrar’s curiablog if you want to see a record of recent poll results. None of them show a landslide to Labour, but the trend on them all is slowly turning towards the left.

    After 9 years in opposition you’d really think that National would at least have some vision for what they want to do in power, that perhaps their spokespeople had been involved in creating policy… oh well. What’s another three years for them….

    [lprent: Good link – added to reference sites in the blogroll. It is pretty consistent in the set of recent polls. Nats down slightly or n/c, Labour up. For me that is a good trend. ]

  26. Draco TB 26
    25 August 2008 at 1:36 pm

    After 9 years in opposition you’d really think that National would at least have some vision for what they want to do in power,

    Why?
    They haven’t shown any real vision for the last 70 years.

  27. A Beautiful Distance 27
    25 August 2008 at 1:57 pm

    The National Party (NZ) seems to be a staid bunch ambling towards an inevitable victory over the tired worn out Labor Party. The elctors will feel good for a few months as new faces appear as Ministers of This/That etc…but truth be known, nothing substantial will alter. A further raft of constricting statures will be passed to preclude the populace thinking for itself, and taxation will continue unabated. Seen it before and will likely live to see it again!

    The term “in Opposition” is thought provoking at this time. The reality is that whilst the National Party are the official “Opposition” the current government seems to have been opposing its constituency in its disdain for personal freedoms and self reliance. I expect that if people came to be in a position where they did not require the alleged largesse of politicians then politicians would be fundamentally redundant.

    It seems from pondering the outcome of the latest poll the two largest parties have gained support at the expense of the equally grotesque Greens and NZ First. I do not see much moment in the results for either HC or JK. The thing both parties possess is a blind outlook for the future…hence, same old, same old!

  28. randal 28
    25 August 2008 at 4:01 pm

    gee a person gets tired of all this anthropomorphic tommy rot..i.e. he did this or they did that or when things change they will do this.all Kiwis want to know is whether their supperannuation fund is safe from looting and if their kids are getting a good education. to put forward the idea that labour has restricted personal freedoms is to ignore the terrible sociopathies that are the direct legacy of the last National government and their criminal policy’s of choice and deregulation that allowed a whole host of social problems to creep out of the woodwork as the Nats abandoned community in favour of selfish consumer solipsism. ideas have consequences and telling people that they can do what they like has lead to a whole generation of self obsessed idiots unlike any other country in the civilised world while the privileged few got millions to start a new life for themselves back in the uk or wherever they could buy some friends.

  29. Ari 29
    25 August 2008 at 5:16 pm

    The National Party (NZ) seems to be a staid bunch ambling towards an inevitable victory over the tired worn out Labor Party.

    While there’s many criticisms I have of the Labour Party, none of them involve the word “tired”. I think they’re one of the most active and upbeat parties out there, despite polling about 10% lower than their chief rivals.

    You seem to be treading a pretty partisan line there.

  30. Pascal's bookie 30
    25 August 2008 at 8:21 pm

    Ari, It is strange that the Labour party is both tired and worn out, yet at the same time they are relentlessly surging forward with their diabolical march toward socialism and compulsory gay.

  31. George Darroch 31
    25 August 2008 at 11:45 pm

    Compulsory gay socialism?

    I for one welcome our new gay socialist overlords. I’d like to remind them that as a soy-drinking scarf wearer, I can be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their state owned saunas.