Watch out Iran

Written By: - Date published: 8:10 am, May 7th, 2019 - 57 comments
Categories: energy, International, uncategorized, us politics, war - Tags:

Discussions about American politics on this blog interest me.  I am in the camp that think that the current POTUS is a dangerous threat to the free world, to our climate and to poor people everywhere.

Other lefties think otherwise because, I don’t know, Hillary or Russia.

Sure she would not have been my choice for POTUS.  As far as I was concerned the choice was between a really shitty status quo and a particularly evil alternative.

And so it has become.  Trump rules the world. And right now instead of him being jailed for conspiring to pervert the course of justice by hiding his egregious colluding with the Russian state or at least facing impeachment he is getting to pretend he is ready to wage war on Iran.  And you have to wonder if he is doing this as a diversion.

From the Guardian:

The US is sending an aircraft carrier and a bomber task force to the Middle East in response to a “number of troubling and escalatory indications and warnings” from Iran, the national security advisor John Bolton has said.

It was unclear on Sunday night what Iranian actions Bolton was referring to. There have been no recent incidents in the Persian Gulf where US and Iranian navies are routinely in close proximity and the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group was already bound for the Gulf a month before Bolton made his announcement.

However, the tone of Bolton’s declaration looked likely to escalate tensions in the region, and it comes days after the Iranian government expressed concern that Bolton and other hawks were seeking to draw the Trump administration into a new war.

In a written statement, Bolton said the ships and planes were intended “to send a clear and unmistakable message to the Iranian regime that any attack on United States interests or on those of our allies will be met with unrelenting force.”

Although it may be that the announcement was nothing more than bellicose spin.  Again from the Guardian:

While such changes in global deployment are made regularly, it is rare for the announcement of such deployments to be made by a national security advisor rather than the Pentagon.

“A carrier into CentCom is not unusual and was likely routine and long planned,” said Ilan Goldenberg, a former state department and Pentagon official, now a senior fellow at the Centre for a New American Security in Washington. “The inflammatory language from Bolton is unusual provocative but my guess is just an opportunity to try to intimidate the Iranians. Nothing more.”

There is something about Iran that triggers Trump.  Despite it complying with UN resolutions concerning its nuclear programme the US has imposed sanctions against the sale of its oil and recently refused to agree to exemptions that allowed China, India and six other nations to buy Iranian oil. World oil prices have since spiked.

So far Iran has shown a great deal of restraint. I hope this continues.

57 comments on “Watch out Iran ”

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  1. Gosman 1
    7 May 2019 at 8:24 am

    I would suggest it is extremely unlikely the US will invade Iran. Even a concerted bombing campaign is improbable. If there was a military conflict it might involve a strategic strike against key targets. That would not really serve US interests long term though (admittedly not Trump's strong suit though).

    • Muttonbird 1.1
      7 May 2019 at 9:23 am

      Why not? They invaded Iraq twice.

      • Gosman 1.1.1
        7 May 2019 at 9:52 am

        They really only invaded Iraq once. The Desert Storm attack was just a flanking movement through Iraqi territory to isolate and destroy Iraqi military units stationed in Kuwait. They SHOULD have invaded Iraq properly in 1991 as that would have lessened the mess that occurred as a result of the invasion in 2003.

        In terms of land invasions of Iran there needs to be a logistics base from which to do so. They can't do this from Iraq or Turkey given the governments in those nations won't be supportive. Saudi may well be supportive but there is the small matter of the Persian gulf between them. That suggests the US would have to rely on establishing a beachhead and building up troops to complete the takeover the entire country. That is extremely risky and in counter to current US military doctrine (which is all about destroying conventional military opponents using overwhelming force of arms in as quick as possible time).

        • In Vino 1.1.1.1
          7 May 2019 at 10:10 pm

          Don't try to change the meaning of words to suit your prevarications, Gosman.

          "Really invaded" as opposed to 'invaded'?

          Caesar invaded Britain, and nobody disputes that. But he soon withdrew because of the bloody Belgians… and left. Britain was then left in peace by the Romans until the reign of Claudius.

          You want 'invade' to mean 'occupy' . It just doesn't. The US definitely invaded Iraq twice. It occupied Iraq once. Both moves were bloody stupid and ill-advised.

          The US still has to learn the lessons from Vietnam, but seems incapable of learning.

          • Gosman 1.1.1.1.1
            8 May 2019 at 1:19 pm

            Iraq was attacked by ground troops in 1991. The aim was never to invade it (it should have been in my view). Given the Iraqi troops defending Kuwait stretched across in to Iraq it would have been incredibly foolish to ignore them, The US led action in 1991 was not ill advised. It was incredibly well executed and achieved it's goal of liberating Kuwait.

  2. One Two 2
    7 May 2019 at 8:58 am

    Degrees of cognitive dissonance among those involved in politics, directly or indirectly can be astounding…

    A consequence of taking sides, is bias. It could be subtly nuanced bias, through to extreme bias and any shade in between…

    MS, your comments closer towards the extreme end of the bias spectrum….my opinion…

    ..egregious colluding with the Russian state (friends)…(while increasing sanctions against it)…(enemies)

    …preparing for war on Iran…(which would be an indirect attack on Russia)… (enemies)…

    Which is it MS?

  3. Ad 3
    7 May 2019 at 9:27 am

    US+Saudis v Iran+Russia

    That's a nuclear war + oil over $200 a barrel.

    No winners there.

    • Gosman 3.1
      7 May 2019 at 9:54 am

      Why would Russia risk a nuclear confrontation over Iran? The Iranians are no ally of the Russians either. They have a more "The enemy of my enemy is my friend" relationship.

      • SPC 3.1.1
        7 May 2019 at 8:30 pm

        Russia profits from American sanctions on Iran – they increase the world price of oil and gas. Any tension in the Gulf (and Venezuela) is good for Russian government revenues.

  4. WeTheBleeple 4
    7 May 2019 at 9:40 am

    "No winners there."

    I think arms manufacturers would beg to differ. If only there were some way to funnel the US economy through these companies…

    Trumps increase in military budget is an enormous boost to the dealers in death, 73B is nothing to scoff at. But, a full scale war would really boost the quarterlies.

    Oil at $200 a barrel is all good if you sell oil. And don't forget to berate bash and bully anyone else in the game.

  5. Stuart Munro. 5
    7 May 2019 at 9:47 am

    I myself suspect the US will not invade Iran under Trump – not this term anyway. Part of the Trump skill set, after the bluster, is screaming incompetence. When he fails to secure what he wants from a bit of sabre rattling and a twitterstorm he'll likely back off.

    • Anne 5.1
      7 May 2019 at 10:07 am

      I expect you're right Stuart Munro but what exactly is Iran supposed to have done to warrant this "warning!"

      They are a sovereign state (sort of) are they not? They can be on speaking terms with whomsoever they choose. They can even rattle a few sabres from time to time so long as that is all they do. They have done nothing to America except express their dislike of the president, DJ Trump. So has most everyone around the world who is sane of mind.

      Americans call themselves the defender of freedom yet spend their time knocking off – or threatening to knock off – anyone or any country who wants to be free of them.

      • Stuart Munro. 5.1.1
        7 May 2019 at 10:19 am

        It's a little tricky – Iran has some human rights issues for which they should traditionally answer – but Trump is unconcerned with such matters, he's quite happy to lie down with the likes of Kim Jong Eun, so he'll struggle to find a casus belli.

        Saudi and Iran are long time competitors for influence in the region, and there is a religious element to that – control of the holy mosques as well. It is a sporting certainty that several US based oil companies own paper rights to Iranian oilfields which became worthless following the ouster of the Shah – a US occupation would restore those rights. Trump alienated Mattis however, and now may struggle to get high level military support for adventures.

        • Anne 5.1.1.1
          7 May 2019 at 10:51 am

          Ah, so it is all about the oil.

          The lunatic Trump has an obsession with oil when the US should be spending time and money on phasing it out. So typical, and yet once again the world stands by and lets the warmongers get away with false pretexts.

          • Gosman 5.1.1.1.1
            7 May 2019 at 11:24 am

            Here is a run own of the Iraqi oil industry. It is no more controlled by US interests than NZ’s banking industry is controlled by Australia

            interests.https://www.ft.com/content/da2b5cae-46d7-11e8-8ee8-cae73aab7ccb

            • Stuart Munro. 5.1.1.1.1.1
              7 May 2019 at 11:59 am

              Oh you mean 'largely' then.

              "Controlling 88% of NZ banking system assets, NZ's Australian owned banks this year made combined net profit after tax of $5.128 billion. That was an increase of $433 million, or 9% year-on-year.Dec 17, 2018"

              You'd have to try pretty hard to find a worse example.

              • Gosman …
                7 May 2019 at 12:02 pm

                The Australian owned banks dominate the NZ banking industry. They do not control it. The control of the industry is NZ. NZers are free to choose and Australian owned bank or a New Zealand one. The rules and regulations dictating behaviour of Banks in New Zealand is decided by New Zealand.

                • Stuart Munro. …
                  7 May 2019 at 12:06 pm

                  A mighty slender semantic argument, the line between dominance and control. But since you're constantly grasping at straws, why not.

                  • Gosman …
                    7 May 2019 at 12:23 pm

                    It is a huge difference. The NZ Government and NZ interests has overall control of the NZ banking industry.

                    • Stuart Munro. …
                      7 May 2019 at 12:38 pm

                      It is indeed a huge difference – but there is little or nothing to indicate NZ interest or NZ government control. Properly regulated this perennial source of trade imbalance would not have been allowed to develop, much less reach 88%.

                    • Phil …
                      7 May 2019 at 1:09 pm

                      Properly regulated this perennial source of trade imbalance would not have been allowed to develop, much less reach 88%.

                      New Zealand has run a current account deficit (i.e. we pay more for overseas goods and services than overseas pays for NZ g&s) in every year since 1974. The foreign ownership of our banking sector is a symptom that now exacerbates underlying causes, but it's extremely unlikely that any historical changes in banking regulation would have materially altered the current ownership structure of our major banks.

                    • Gosman …
                      7 May 2019 at 1:14 pm

                      How has this impacted the NZ economy overall? How are we physically WORSE off?

                    • Phil …
                      7 May 2019 at 2:14 pm

                      How are we physically WORSE off?

                      Are you really asking someone to explain how the nation-state equivalent of funding your lifestyle on credit card debt, for nearly half a century, is a bad thing?

                    • Gosman …
                      7 May 2019 at 2:51 pm

                      Countries are not people. Noone is coming to reposess the country because we can't afford the repayments.

                  • Phil …
                    7 May 2019 at 12:48 pm

                    The directors who run banks are legally required to act in the best interests of the Bank, not the shareholder. This is an explicit requirement placed on banks via their Conditions of Registration and is designed to void s131 of the Companies Act – that a director may act in the best interests of the holding company or parent, even when that action is not in the best interests of the subsidiary company.

                    It just so happens that what is in the best interests of the NZ bank (i.e. making a fuck-ton of money) is also in the best interest of the Australian parent.

        • Gosman 5.1.1.2
          7 May 2019 at 11:16 am

          This idea that the US somehow invades countries to get access to oil is unsupported by reality. The country that benefited most from the US invasion was perversely Iran not the US. Even in the oil industry the US only receives 17% of oil exported from Iraq and US companies do not control the industry in the country.

          https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37973

        • Gabby 5.1.1.3
          7 May 2019 at 12:45 pm

          Yankistan has a few human rights issues to answer for too stuey.

          • Stuart Munro. 5.1.1.3.1
            7 May 2019 at 12:51 pm

            True – specially around its borders atm. But Iran has a habit of imprisoning and flogging journalists – and not the kind, like Garner or Gower, who have it coming.

      • Gosman 5.1.2
        7 May 2019 at 10:20 am

        Iran is less of a threat than members of the Trump administration seem to think but more of a threat than many people on the left like to believe. Actions taken by the Iranian regime are having a major destabilising impact in the region (as has action carried out by the Saudis admittedly).

        • Anne 5.1.2.1
          7 May 2019 at 10:56 am

          I expect you're right Gosman but see Stuart Munro above. It would be a typical tunnel visioned Trump move – try to reclaim the oil wells that likely didn't belong to the US in the first place.

          • Gosman 5.1.2.1.1
            7 May 2019 at 11:22 am

            The US has not done that in relation to other nations it has intervened in recently. Why would it do so in the case of Iran?

      • mikesh 5.1.3
        7 May 2019 at 3:24 pm

        Oil producing countries seem to represent a threat to the status of the US dollar

  6. Adrian Thornton 6
    7 May 2019 at 10:12 am

    @MS, it is unbelievable that you would suggest that not buying into your insane Russia conspirisory somehow makes one partly culpable for Trumps actions going forward, infact you conspirisory nutters are the ones who have now given Trump legitimacy and it is you who should be apologizing to us who saw through that bullshit from the start and tried in vain to warn you…but no you preferred to trust the FBI and the DNC, which in itself should give one pause for thought…or so you would think.

    Further what on earth gives you the impression that H.Clinton would have been any less hawkish than Trump?, I have never read or seen anything about her that would lead me to that conclusion.

    'As Democratic Elites Reunite With Neocons, the Party’s Voters Are Becoming Far More Militaristic and Pro-War Than Republicans'

    https://theintercept.com/2019/01/11/as-democratic-elites-reunite-with-neocons-the-partys-voters-are-becoming-far-more-militaristic-and-pro-war-than-republicans/

    • SPC 6.1
      7 May 2019 at 8:45 pm

      As to those polls, what they really show is party supporters being partisan. When Obama talked about withdrawal he had Democrat support and Republican opposiiton. When Trump talks of withdrawal he gets ….

      • Adrian Thornton 6.1.1
        8 May 2019 at 12:34 pm

        You are probably right, I had hoped that the 'left' would display a bit more critical thinking than that, however judging by the way so many good lefties have been sucked into "Russiagate' and support the arrest of Assange, I guess I shouldn't have had such high hopes…

    • infused 6.2
      8 May 2019 at 10:10 am

      Spot on.

      People don't know half the shit Hillary was up to. There was a post on Reddit, which was suspected to be her technical team asking how to remove or modify email headers in Microsoft Exchange (email server). The post was deleted once the hosting email at home saga broke out. It was pretty obvious

      https://www.reddit.com/r/technology/comments/53js67/hillary_clinton_it_paul_combetta_asked_how_to/

      Sometimes the left are blind as a bat.

      Hillary was up to something she wanted no-one to find out.

  7. mauī 7
    7 May 2019 at 11:10 am

    “And right now instead of him being jailed for conspiring to pervert the course of justice by hiding his egregious colluding with the Russian state or at least facing impeachment he is getting to pretend he is ready to wage war on Iran.”

    Statements like that have probably driven loads of people to alt-right sources (including myself) to get an accurate and honest picture of what is really going on. So sad.

  8. Poission 8
    7 May 2019 at 11:15 am

    "I believe it is quite symbolic the US ambassador made such a statement at the end of April, because at the beginning of May we have a good tradition of celebrating the May 9 holiday – the day of victory in the Great Patriotic War. I would like to recall that the Soviet Union played the decisive role in the defeat of the aggressor – the Hitler-led coalition. It was a war of liberation and an anti-fascist war on the global scale," Zakharova said. "Possibly, Mr. Ambassador would like us to have some other occasion we may wish to celebrate.

    http://tass.com/world/1055794

    • Michael 8.1
      7 May 2019 at 10:36 pm

      Really objective source there. Completely free of any influence by the Russian state.

  9. Adrian Thornton 9
    7 May 2019 at 11:46 am

    @MS, I should have finished by saying that I wholeheartedly agree with your last sentence..

    "So far Iran has shown a great deal of restraint. I hope this continues."

  10. Psycho Milt 10
    7 May 2019 at 12:37 pm

    My non-evidence-based personal opinion is that American conservatives' obsession with Iran has nothing to do with oil and everything to do with the national humiliations suffered following the Iranian revolution: not just the embassy hostages but the catastrophic failure of the rescue attempt by special forces.

    The Trump presidency represents the apotheosis of Asshole Culture, and that culture is all about being seen as a winner. In that culture, if someone publicly humiliates you and gets away with it, your hatred will be visceral, long-lasting and beyond all reason. That's the kind of feeling Trump has for Iran, and Netanyahu will be doing his level best to encourage it.

    • Wensleydale 10.1
      7 May 2019 at 3:01 pm

      I think you're mostly right. I think Trump's all-encompassing ego plays a part in it too. He loves being perceived as a tough guy, despite being a bully and an abject coward. I think the notion of himself as a 'War President' appeals to him, and he'd love his own Desert Storm.

      The countless deaths that would likely result would be purely incidental to him. It's all about "Fuck with me, and like some malevolent tangerine God, I shall righteously smite you!" Whatever makes his winkie look bigger.

    • In Vino 10.2
      7 May 2019 at 10:41 pm

      Inclined to agree: the original Ayotollah truly humiliated the great USA, and Carter was therefore doomed at the next election… But the redneck patriotic American would never forget or forgive. Trump has all of them behind him, just as you say.

      • SPC 10.2.1
        7 May 2019 at 10:46 pm

        There is the other view of that, American support for the overthrow of a democratic government in Iran with the installation of the Shah.

        • In Vino 10.2.1.1
          7 May 2019 at 11:16 pm

          Agree fully. Any patriotic rednecks in Iran have a lot more reason to resent the USA than the USA rednecks have to resent Iran.

          But the American ones count, because they put people like Trump in positions of global influence.

          Doom and gloom..

  11. Professor Longhair 11
    7 May 2019 at 3:38 pm

    Other lefties think otherwise because, I don’t know, Hillary or Russia.

    ???

    Could you elaborate, please? Which "lefties" support Trump?

  12. Exkiwiforces 12
    7 May 2019 at 4:37 pm

    It’s just a dick waving/ my dick is bigger than yours exercise and I really don’t think much will happen if the Iranians sit tight during this yankee dick waving contest etc. If I was the Iranian head shed I’ll get the muppet Yankees make the first aggressive move, but at the same time I’ll be watching what happens in Venezuela during this dick sizing competition by old Bolton and Trump & co.

    As Chairman Mao once said “make in noise in the East and attack from the West” or words to that a effect.

  13. SPC 13
    7 May 2019 at 8:25 pm

    The strategy is

    1. to take Iran's economy to breaking point – sanctions on nations that continue to trade with Iran to starve them of revenue.

    2. then on top of the economic warfare, a military build-up to create some psychological pressure.

    The purpose is to

    1. please Riyadh and its allies against Iran so that reaction to annexation of WB settlements is muted.

    2. reduce Irans capability to offering financial aid to Iraq (its major foreign aid donor), Syria, Hizbollah and Hamas.

    3. undermine popular confidence in the future of Iran (and confidence in Iran in the wider region) under its current regime – to provoke a crackdown on dissent and organised opposition and force unpopular economic regulations.

  14. Michael 14
    7 May 2019 at 10:39 pm

    Of course Iran could be relied upon to behave itself with complete propriety if the US did not maintain a military presence in the Middle East. Of course, non-Shia Muslims and other denominations have nothing whatsoever to fear from Iran's foreign and military machinations. Especially people living in Israel.

    • SPC 14.1
      7 May 2019 at 10:48 pm

      Why would you and Gabriel fear little Persia?

      They have not invaded, occupied or regime changed anywhere have they?

      Whereas the USA (overthrown the democratic Iranian government 1950’s) and Israel have and are …

    • In Vino 14.2
      7 May 2019 at 11:08 pm

      Michael – Are you suggesting that Iran is a dangerous threat to other Arab countries??

      As I understand it, Iran is the only big country with a Shia majority. Most of the others are Sunni majority. It is more likely that Iran gets little support from Sunni countries when the USA bullies Iran. Propaganda tells us that Iran is behind all the destruction in Yemen. But are you naïve enough to believe propaganda?

      People living in Israel know that they have the support of the USA, and that without that support they would not last long. Even the Sunnis are against Israel.

      • SPC 14.2.1
        7 May 2019 at 11:25 pm

        The Kurds and the Iranians are outliers with Arabs, just as much as the Jews, yet as Shia Moslems they have influence with Shia Moslem Arabs which Sunni Moslem Arabs fear.

        The regime change in Iraq allowed the local Shia Moslem Arab majority to win elections there, thus the increasing fear of Iranian power in the "Arab ME". This is the concern in Riyadh and it has driven them into the arms of Israel – whose concern is more the Iranian support for Hizbollah via Syria and Hamas in Gaza.

        Israel is also alllied with Egypt and Riyadh in having Trump declare the Moslem Brotherhood a terrorist group and the isolation of Qatar (share a large gas field with Iran, host al Jazeera nemesis of Arab tyrants and refused to give Kushner a loan) – while Riyadh supports Wahhabi and Salafi Islam it does not like political forms of Islam.

        • In Vino 14.2.1.1
          8 May 2019 at 1:07 am

          Ah, complications… No argument with you – I was questioning Michael's insinuation that without the USA, the Middle East and Israel would all be invaded by propriety-deficient Iranians.

  15. infused 15
    8 May 2019 at 10:06 am

    You lose all respect when you go on about the collusion bullshit.

    Trump's ratings are now climbing. When he wins again, then what? Cry more?

    You may not like him, but he's getting shit done. Shit everyone else was too pussy-footed to do.

  16. joe90 16
    8 May 2019 at 10:24 am

    He really doesn't want Mueller to appear before congress.

    In response to National Security Advisor Advisor John Bolton’s Sunday evening statement that the forces were being dispatched to the Gulf in response to “a number of troubling and escalatory indications and warnings,” by Iran, Richardson said Monday that, essentially, the deployment was just business as usual.

    “The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group was planned to deploy for some time now,” Richardson told the SeaAirSpace conference. He touted the Lincoln’s new route to the Gulf as an example of “dynamic force employment,” a new Navy tactic that is meant to surprise potential adversaries by having US ships show up off their coastlines without warning.

    https://breakingdefense.com/2019/05/cno-uss-lincoln-persian-gulf-trip-no-surprise-planned-for-some-time/

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    Henry Kissinger is finally dead. Good fucking riddance. While Americans loved him, he was a war criminal, responsible for most of the atrocities of the final quarter of the twentieth century. Cambodia. Bangladesh. Chile. East Timor. All Kissinger. Because of these crimes, Americans revere him as a "statesman" (which says ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago

  • Government in a hurry – Luxon lists 49 priorities in 100-day plan while Peters pledges to strength...
    Buzz from the Beehive Yes, ministers in the new government are delivering speeches and releasing press statements. But the message on the government’s official website was the same as it has been for the past several days, when Point of Order went looking for news from the Beehive that had ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago

  • DAVID FARRAR: Luxon is absolutely right
    David Farrar writes  –  1 News reports: Christopher Luxon says he was told by some Kiwis on the campaign trail they “didn’t know” the difference between Waka Kotahi, Te Pūkenga and Te Whatu Ora. Speaking to Breakfast, the incoming prime minister said having English first on government agencies will “make sure” ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Top 10 at 10 am for Thursday, Nov 30
    There are fears that mooted changes to building consent liability could end up driving the building industry into an uninsured hole. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere as of 10 am on Thursday, November 30, including:The new Government’s ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell on how climate change threatens cricket‘s future
    Well that didn’t last long, did it? Mere days after taking on what he called the “awesome responsibility” of being Prime Minister, M Christopher Luxon has started blaming everyone else, and complaining that he has inherited “economic vandalism on an unprecedented scale” – which is how most of us are ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    3 days ago

  • We need to talk about Tory.
    The first I knew of the news about Tory Whanau was when a tweet came up in my feed.The sort of tweet that makes you question humanity, or at least why you bother with Twitter. Which is increasingly a cesspit of vile inhabitants who lurk spreading negativity, hate, and every ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago

  • Dangling Transport Solutions
    Cable Cars, Gondolas, Ropeways and Aerial Trams are all names for essentially the same technology and the world’s biggest maker of them are here to sell them as an public transport solution. Stuff reports: Austrian cable car company Doppelmayr has launched its case for adding aerial cable cars to New ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    3 days ago

  • November AMA
    Hi,It’s been awhile since I’ve done an Ask-Me-Anything on here, so today’s the day. Ask anything you like in the comments section, and I’ll be checking in today and tomorrow to answer.Leave a commentNext week I’ll be giving away a bunch of these Mister Organ blu-rays for readers in New ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    3 days ago

  • National’s early moves adding to cost of living pressure
    The cost of living grind continues, and the economic and inflation honeymoon is over before it began. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: PM Christopher Luxon unveiled his 100 day plan yesterday with an avowed focus of reducing cost-of-living pressures, but his Government’s initial moves and promises are actually elevating ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • Backwards to the future
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has confirmed that it will be back to the future on planning legislation. This will be just one of a number of moves which will see the new government go backwards as it repeals and cost-cuts its way into power. They will completely repeal one ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago

  • New initiatives in science and technology could point the way ahead for Luxon government
    As the new government settles into the Beehive, expectations are high that it can sort out some  of  the  economic issues  confronting  New Zealand. It may take time for some new  ministers to get to grips with the range of their portfolio work and responsibilities before they can launch the  changes that  ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    4 days ago

  • Treaty pledge to secure funding is contentious – but is Peters being pursued by a lynch mob after ...
    TV3 political editor Jenna Lynch was among the corps of political reporters who bridled, when Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters told them what he thinks of them (which is not much). She was unabashed about letting her audience know she had bridled. More usefully, she drew attention to something which ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago

  • How long does this last?
    I have a clear memory of every election since 1969 in this plucky little nation of ours. I swear I cannot recall a single one where the question being asked repeatedly in the first week of the new government was: how long do you reckon they’ll last? And that includes all ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago

  • National’s giveaway politics
    We already know that national plans to boost smoking rates to collect more tobacco tax so they can give huge tax-cuts to mega-landlords. But this morning that policy got even more obscene - because it turns out that the tax cut is retrospective: Residential landlords will be able to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago

  • CHRIS TROTTER: Who’s driving the right-wing bus?
    Who’s At The Wheel? The electorate’s message, as aggregated in the polling booths on 14 October, turned out to be a conservative political agenda stronger than anything New Zealand has seen in five decades. In 1975, Bill Rowling was run over by just one bus, with Rob Muldoon at the wheel. In 2023, ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • GRAHAM ADAMS:  Media knives flashing for Luxon’s government
    The fear and loathing among legacy journalists is astonishing Graham Adams writes – No one is going to die wondering how some of the nation’s most influential journalists personally view the new National-led government. It has become abundantly clear within a few days of the coalition agreements ...
    Point of OrderBy gadams1000
    4 days ago

  • Top 10 news links for Wednesday, Nov 29
    TL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere for Wednesday November 29, including:The early return of interest deductibility for landlords could see rebates paid on previous taxes and the cost increase to $3 billion from National’s initial estimate of $2.1 billion, CTU Economist Craig Renney estimated here last ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago

  • Smokefree Fallout and a High Profile Resignation.
    The day after being sworn in the new cabinet met yesterday, to enjoy their honeymoon phase. You remember, that period after a new government takes power where the country, and the media, are optimistic about them, because they haven’t had a chance to stuff anything about yet.Sadly the nuptials complete ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago

  • As Cabinet revs up, building plans go on hold
    Wellington Council hoardings proclaim its preparations for population growth, but around the country councils are putting things on hold in the absence of clear funding pathways for infrastructure, and despite exploding migrant numbers. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Cabinet meets in earnest today to consider the new Government’s 100-day ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago

  • National takes over infrastructure
    Though New Zealand First may have had ambitions to run the infrastructure portfolios, National would seem to have ended up firmly in control of them.  POLITIK has obtained a private memo to members of Infrastructure NZ yesterday, which shows that the peak organisation for infrastructure sees  National MPs Chris ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago

  • At a glance – Evidence for global warming
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago

  • Who’s Driving The Right-Wing Bus?
    Who’s At The Wheel? The electorate’s message, as aggregated in the polling booths on 14 October, turned out to be a conservative political agenda stronger than anything New Zealand has seen in five decades. In 1975, Bill Rowling was run over by just one bus, with Rob Muldoon at the wheel. In ...
    Bowalley Road
    5 days ago

  • Sanity break
    Cheers to reader Deane for this quote from Breakfast TV today:Chloe Swarbrick to Brook van Velden re the coalition agreement: “... an unhinged grab-bag of hot takes from your drunk uncle at Christmas”Cheers also to actual Prime Minister of a country Christopher Luxon for dorking up his swearing-in vows.But that's enough ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago

  • Sanity break
    Cheers to reader Deane for this quote from Breakfast TV today:Chloe Swarbrick to Brook van Velden re the coalition agreement: “... an unhinged grab-bag of hot takes from your drunk uncle at Christmas”Cheers also to actual Prime Minister of a country Christopher Luxon for dorking up his swearing-in vows.But that's enough ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    5 days ago

  • National’s murderous smoking policy
    One of the big underlying problems in our political system is the prevalence of short-term thinking, most usually seen in the periodic massive infrastructure failures at a local government level caused by them skimping on maintenance to Keep Rates Low. But the new government has given us a new example, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago

  • NZ has a chance to rise again as our new government gets spending under control
    New Zealand has  a chance  to  rise  again. Under the  previous  government, the  number of New Zealanders below the poverty line was increasing  year by year. The Luxon-led government  must reverse that trend – and set about stabilising  the  pillars  of the economy. After the  mismanagement  of the outgoing government created   huge ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    5 days ago

  • KARL DU FRESNE: Media and the new government
    Two articles by Karl du Fresne bring media coverage of the new government into considerations.  He writes –    Tuesday, November 28, 2023 The left-wing media needed a line of attack, and they found one The left-wing media pack wasted no time identifying the new government’s weakest point. Seething over ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • PHILIP CRUMP:  Team of rivals – a CEO approach to government leadership
    The work begins Philip Crump wrote this article ahead of the new government being sworn in yesterday – Later today the new National-led coalition government will be sworn in, and the hard work begins. At the core of government will be three men – each a leader ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • Black Friday
    As everyone who watches television or is on the mailing list for any of our major stores will confirm, “Black Friday” has become the longest running commercial extravaganza and celebration in our history. Although its origins are obscure (presumably dreamt up by American salesmen a few years ago), it has ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    5 days ago

  • In Defense of the Media.
    Yesterday the Ministers in the next government were sworn in by our Governor General. A day of tradition and ceremony, of decorum and respect. Usually.But yesterday Winston Peters, the incoming Deputy Prime Minister, and Foreign Minister, of our nation used it, as he did with the signing of the coalition ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago

  • Top 10 news links at 10 am for Tuesday, Nov 28
    Nicola Willis’ first move was ‘spilling the tea’ on what she called the ‘sobering’ state of the nation’s books, but she had better be able to back that up in the HYEFU. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere at 10 am ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago

  • PT use up but fare increases coming
    Yesterday Auckland Transport were celebrating, as the most recent Sunday was the busiest Sunday they’ve ever had. That’s a great outcome and I’m sure the ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    5 days ago

  • The very opposite of social investment
    Nicola Willis (in blue) at the signing of the coalition agreement, before being sworn in as both Finance Minister and Social Investment Minister. National’s plan to unwind anti-smoking measures will benefit her in the first role, but how does it stack up from a social investment viewpoint? Photo: Lynn Grieveson ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago

  • Giving Tuesday
    For the first time "in history" we decided to jump on the "Giving Tuesday" bandwagon in order to make you aware of the options you have to contribute to our work! Projects supported by Skeptical Science Inc. Skeptical Science Skeptical Science is an all-volunteer organization but ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago

  • Let's open the books with Nicotine Willis
    Let’s say it’s 1984,and there's a dreary little nation at the bottom of the Pacific whose name rhymes with New Zealand,and they've just had an election.Jesus, Mary, and Joseph, will you look at the state of these books we’ve opened,cries the incoming government, will you look at all this mountain ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago

  • Climate Change: Stopping oil
    National is promising to bring back offshore oil and gas drilling. Naturally, the Greens have organised a petition campaign to try and stop them. You should sign it - every little bit helps, and as the struggle over mining conservation land showed, even National can be deterred if enough people ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago

  • Don’t accept Human Rights Commission reading of data on Treaty partnership – read the survey fin...
    Wellington is braced for a “massive impact’ from the new government’s cutting public service jobs, The Post somewhat grimly reported today. Expectations of an economic and social jolt are based on the National-Act coalition agreement to cut public service numbers in each government agency in a cost-trimming exercise  “informed by” head ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • The stupidest of stupid reasons
    One of the threats in the National - ACT - NZ First coalition agreements was to extend the term of Parliament to four years, reducing our opportunities to throw a bad government out. The justification? Apparently, the government thinks "elections are expensive". This is the stupidest of stupid reasons for ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago

  • A website bereft of buzz
    Buzz from the Beehive The new government was being  sworn in, at time of writing , and when Point of Order checked the Beehive website for the latest ministerial statements and re-visit some of the old ones we drew a blank. We found ….  Nowt. Nothing. Zilch. Not a ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • MICHAEL BASSETT: A new Ministry – at last
    Michael Bassett writes – Like most people, I was getting heartily sick of all the time being wasted over the coalition negotiations. During the first three weeks Winston grinned like a Cheshire cat, certain he’d be needed; Chris Luxon wasted time in lifting the phone to Winston ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • Luxon's Breakfast.
    The Prime Minister elect had his silver fern badge on. He wore it to remind viewers he was supporting New Zealand, that was his team. Despite the fact it made him look like a concierge, or a welcomer in a Koru lounge. Anna Burns-Francis, the Breakfast presenter, asked if he ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago

  • LINDSAY MITCHELL:  Oranga Tamariki faces major upheaval under coalition agreement
     Lindsay Mitchell writes – A hugely significant gain for ACT is somewhat camouflaged by legislative jargon. Under the heading ‘Oranga Tamariki’ ACT’s coalition agreement contains the following item:   Remove Section 7AA from the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989 According to Oranga Tamariki:     “Section ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • BRIAN EASTON:  Peters as Minister
    A previous column looked at Winston Peters biographically. This one takes a closer look at his record as a minister, especially his policy record. Brian Easton writes – 1990-1991: Minister of Māori Affairs. Few remember Ka Awatea as a major document on the future of Māori policy; there is ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • Cathrine Dyer's guide to watching COP 28 from the bottom of a warming planet
    Is COP28 largely smoke and mirrors and a plan so cunning, you could pin a tail on it and call it a weasel? Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: COP28 kicks off on November 30 and up for negotiation are issues like the role of fossil fuels in the energy transition, contributions to ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • Top 10 news links at 10 am for Monday, Nov 27
    PM Elect Christopher Luxon was challenged this morning on whether he would sack Adrian Orr and Andrew Coster.TL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere at 10 am on Monday November 27, including:Signs councils are putting planning and capital spending on hold, given a lack of clear guidance ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell on the new government’s policies of yesteryear
    This column expands on a Werewolf column published by Scoop on Friday Routinely, Winston Peters is described as the kingmaker who gets to decide when the centre right or the centre-left has a turn at running this country. He also plays a less heralded but equally important role as the ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    6 days ago

  • The New Government’s Agreements
    Last Friday, almost six weeks after election day, National finally came to an agreement with ACT and NZ First to form a government. They also released the agreements between each party and looking through them, here are the things I thought were the most interesting (and often concerning) from the. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    6 days ago

  • How many smokers will die to fund the tax cuts?
    Maori and Pasifika smoking rates are already over twice the ‘all adult’ rate. Now the revenue that generates will be used to fund National’s tax cuts. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The devil is always in the detail and it emerged over the weekend from the guts of the policy agreements National ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • How the culture will change in the Beehive
    Perhaps the biggest change that will come to the Beehive as the new government settles in will be a fundamental culture change. The era of endless consultation will be over. This looks like a government that knows what it wants to do, and that means it knows what outcomes ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago

  • No More Winnie Blues.
    So what do you think of the coalition’s decision to cancel Smokefree measures intended to stop young people, including an over representation of Māori, from taking up smoking? Enabling them to use the tax revenue to give other people a tax cut?David Cormack summed it up well:It seems not only ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    7 days ago

  • 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #47
    A chronological listing of news and opinion articles posted on the Skeptical Science  Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Nov 19, 2023 thru Sat, Nov 25, 2023.  Story of the Week World stands on frontline of disaster at Cop28, says UN climate chief  Exclusive: Simon Stiell says leaders must ‘stop ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 week ago

  • Some of it is mad, some of it is bad and some of it is clearly the work of people who are dangerous ...
    On announcement morning my mate texted:Typical of this cut-price, fake-deal government to announce itself on Black Friday.What a deal. We lose Kim Hill, we gain an empty, jargonising prime minister, a belligerent conspiracist, and a heartless Ayn Rand fanboy. One door closes, another gets slammed repeatedly in your face.It seems pretty ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago

  • “Revolution” is the threat as the Māori Party smarts at coalition government’s Treaty directi...
    Buzz from the Beehive Having found no fresh announcements on the government’s official website, Point of Order turned today to Scoop’s Latest Parliament Headlines  for its buzz. This provided us with evidence that the Māori Party has been soured by the the coalition agreement announced yesterday by the new PM. “Soured” ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 week ago

  • The Good, the Bad, and the even Worse.
    Yesterday the trio that will lead our country unveiled their vision for New Zealand.Seymour looking surprisingly statesmanlike, refusing to rise to barbs about his previous comments on Winston Peters. Almost as if they had just been slapstick for the crowd.Winston was mostly focussed on settling scores with the media, making ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago

  • When it Comes to Palestine – Free Speech is Under Threat
    Hi,Thanks for getting amongst Mister Organ on digital — thanks to you, we hit the #1 doc spot on iTunes this week. This response goes a long way to helping us break even.I feel good about that. Other things — not so much.New Zealand finally has a new government, and ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 week ago

  • Thank you Captain Luxon. Was that a landing, or were we shot down?
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Also in More Than A FeildingFriday The unboxing And so this is Friday and what have we gone and done to ourselves?In the same way that a Christmas present can look lovely under the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago

  • Cans of Worms.
    “And there’ll be no shortage of ‘events’ to test Luxon’s political skills. David Seymour wants a referendum on the Treaty. Winston wants a Royal Commission of Inquiry into Labour’s handling of the Covid crisis. Talk about cans of worms!”LAURIE AND LES were very fond of their local. It was nothing ...
    Bowalley Road
    1 week ago

  • Disinformation campaigns are undermining democracy. Here’s how we can fight back
    This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article. Misinformation is debated everywhere and has justifiably sparked concerns. It can polarise the public, reduce health-protective behaviours such as mask wearing and vaccination, and erode trust in science. Much of misinformation is spread not ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 week ago

  • New Zealand welcomes European Parliament vote on the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement
    A significant milestone in ratifying the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was reached last night, with 524 of the 705 member European Parliament voting in favour to approve the agreement. “I’m delighted to hear of the successful vote to approve the NZ-EU FTA in the European Parliament overnight. This is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Further humanitarian support for Gaza, the West Bank and Israel
    The Government is contributing a further $5 million to support the response to urgent humanitarian needs in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel, bringing New Zealand’s total contribution to the humanitarian response so far to $10 million. “New Zealand is deeply saddened by the loss of civilian life and the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

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