TV1 Poll

Written By: - Date published: 9:40 am, April 2nd, 2012 - 40 comments
Categories: greens, labour, national, polls - Tags:

A TV1 poll came out yesterday, showing no change in the major parties (Labour National and Greens all up 1%, all margin of error stuff). The good news is that Key is down 4% as preferred PM, and Shearer has debuted well at 11%.

Many would have expected a drop in National’s polling giving the awful couple of week’s they’ve had, but shifts in polling opinion always lag behind events. Bear in mind also that TV1 polls have a poor record in practice, and the Nats were down 3% in the most recent TV3 poll. (You can catch Frank Macskasy’s take on the TV1 poll here.) In other polling related news, iPredict has Labour at 52% probability of leading the next government.

They say that oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them. National is working pretty hard at that just lately, and their fall will be reflected in polling over the course of the year. Even so, Labour can’t afford to sit about and wait for the next election to drop into their lap. Get the organisational review done, get the policy review done, and then let’s see Labour on the campaign trail as soon as possible…

40 comments on “TV1 Poll ”

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  1. bad12 1
    2 April 2012 at 10:18 am

    The way we see 2011 is that it was a 2% victory for the Tory,s, what makes this National Government look secure is the Maori party support it has managed to cling on to,

    Both Turia and Sharples have indicated that neither will contest another election and we doubt there is another burning issue within Maoridom which will not see both those seats return to Labour and after the ”interesting” little spat between Sharples and Flavell just after 2011 we are not sure that Flavell will be returning to the Parliament after 2014,

    Labour if it continues to cling to the failed ”Rogernomics” of its past are going to bleed more support to the Greens and if it is to form the Government after 2014 it will either have to look left for its economic vision or be forced to do so simply by dint of the % of vote going Green,

    We await with anticipation and some trepidation the ”vision” of Labours ”new” Parliamentary Leader who has so far failed to inspire either us or the mandarins at TV1,tho we will add that as leadership goes Labour Deputy Grant Robertson has shown a positive image via the TV news with His able backing of His MP,s over the Nick Smith fiasco…

  2. Dr Terry 2
    2 April 2012 at 10:36 am

    I am politically naive. Will somebody explain to me what “centre-right” actually means or implies? When I see this applied to the Labour Party, I can only feel trepidation. Does it imply “sitting on the fence”, or “having it both ways”, or “well, at least we are not FAR to the Right – we are not like Hitler’s Nazis, are we?” Not yet, I hope!! Moving to the Right seems to be leaving all the options open. What ever happened to the Left? Leaving it to the Greens? Shearer is not showing well.

    • Pete George 2.1
      2 April 2012 at 11:34 am

      Most policies of most parties are closer to the centre than to the extreme left or right.

      Centre just means moderate with room to move a bit left or right on specific issues as common sense dictates.

      Even the asset sales programme is fairly centre-ish, with a bob each way on privitisation and public ownership.

    • McFlock 2.2
      2 April 2012 at 1:45 pm

      I’m not familiar with any party that calls itself “extreme left” or “extreme right” – it’s all a bit relativistic. Most people tend to identify themselves as reasonable and middle-of-the-road. But then that has changed dramatically over the last 30 years.

      “Centre right” is what parties call themselves when they want the unemployed to starve in the streets, “centre left” is what parties call themselves when they want to eat the rich. 
           

      But then we have what one party might call another party. If a member of the People’s Socialist Party of Aotearoa calls someone “right wing”, then maybe in the great scheme of things the person is actually pretty moderate. If a member of pre-brash ACT calls someone “right wing”, they’re probably pretty diabolical.
           
      Where it gets REALLY complicated is that “right wing” can refer to extreme economic liberalism (asset sales, no minimum wage, minimal flat tax, private prisons, no social welfare) and/or extreme social conservatism (drugs, abortion, homosexuality, hoodies are all illegal).
            
      Basically, unless their social conservatism becomes over-bearing, I try to regard “centre” on purely economic policy,  picking as an arbitrary “middle” somewhere around 1985, i.e. a perceptual midpoint between the highly interventionist Muldoon and the sociopathically non-interventionist Douglas/Richardson. But then I’m reasonably left wing, so take my perspective accordingly. 😉

  3. Enough is Enough 3
    2 April 2012 at 10:48 am

    I would have expected bigger better things for Labour in this poll with the shambles that has been Key and his thriving mob so far this year.

    People say shifts in polls are a gradual thing but I am not sure that is always correct. Natioanl was lagging in the 20’s and low 30’s for most of English’s reign. Then in the course of one speech to a group of rich white men at the Orewa Rotary club in 2004, Don Brash catapulted National into a position where they never really looked back. That jolt in the polls was instant and they have been above 40 ever since. It didn’t win them the 2005 election but has given them a core of support that they have held for 8 years now.

    The media will always report the polls with a FPP mindset. We have to accept that and therfore need to get Labour back into the 40’s.

    Someone at some stage must stand up and make a speech that appeals to the masses and to win our core support back.

    The issues are there, SOE sales, land sales, and industrial relations. Time to make a stand before the media begins writing off Shearer as they did Goff.

  4. ghostwhowalksnz 4
    2 April 2012 at 10:56 am

    Lets hope the Nationals are enjoying the polls 51% a lot more than the voters 47.3%.

    • Frank Macskasy 4.1
      2 April 2012 at 11:01 am

      If I were a National backroom strategist, Ghost, I’d be sh*tt*ng my pants about now. Whilst TVNZ may report that National has “risen” in the polls -that;s for public consumption only. The reality is the opposite – they are dropping, even by Colmar’s own figures.

      As I’ve written on my blog, barring full employment and abandonment of their asset sales programme, National is on it’s way out. Labour is a government in waiting.

      The next polls should be interesting…

      • Gosman 4.1.1
        2 April 2012 at 11:34 am

        Oh if only the Labour party was filled with ‘Useful idiots’ like you Frank in policy formation positions. The National party stategists would have a ball with your ideas. Painting Shearer as the Mugabe of the South Pacific would be so so cool. They could even throw in some pics of him in his time with the UN in places in Africa and suggest he obviously went a bit loony in the hot African sun.

        • Frank Macskasy 4.1.1.1
          2 April 2012 at 11:39 am

          Oh dear, Gosman, I seem to have got to you? 😀

          Never mind. Ad hominem insults simply prove my previous points about your ‘style’ of debate.

          Now, let’s see you address the POINTS I raised. Can you do that?

          • Wonker 4.1.1.1.1
            2 April 2012 at 12:05 pm

            Frank – you’re such a munt “– they are dropping, even by Colmar’s own figures.”

            The last Colmar Brunton poll had National at 50.3%. The latest at 51%. Hence you are factually wrong.

            54%
            53%
            50%
            51%

            Moreover your analysis of poll results v. election day results is also bogus:

            http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php/polls-and-surveys/one-news-colmar-brunton/one-news-colmar-brunton-poll-media-releases

            Do some friggin’ research.

            [lprent: I’m sure someone will point this out, but you haven’t looked at the error rates. Relying on a movement that is well within the probable statistical error between two data points is stupidity. If you don’t understand why, then it suggests that you aren’t capable of arguing here. If you do understand it, then it suggests to me that you are merely trolling rather than arguing.

            Either way means that you have attracted my moderating attention which is somewhat dangerous. I suggest you read the policy as your research.

            Otherwise you may get a humour quirk as I globally change a vowel in your pseudonym. ]

            • Te Reo Putake 4.1.1.1.1.1
              2 April 2012 at 12:17 pm

              51 is less than 54. Frank is right, you are wrong.

              • Wonker …
                2 April 2012 at 12:25 pm

                It’s also higher than 48% which National has polled. Shall we pick a time when they polled 55%? How about 21%?

                51% is higher than the last, most recent, point estimate. Deal with it.

            • Gosman 4.1.1.1.1.2
              2 April 2012 at 1:13 pm

              “Relying on a movement that is well within the probable statistical error between two data points is stupidity”

              Genuine question here for you lprent.

              Isn’t Frank doing virtually the same thing your are accusing Wonker of doing?

              [lprent: If you are thinking about the numbers I think you are, then the measurement would be from about 54% or 55% down to about 50% across the period he is talking about (the poll taken prior to the last election). I don’t know about those particular polls, but the confidence limits on most of the TVNZ and TV3 polls are usually +/- 3 or 3.5% unless they have dropped their sample sizes recently. You should read it as being significant.

              In practice there are much larger sampling errors due to their collection techniques – which are essentially shit. You can see this clearly in that the various polls that are meant to be sampling the same population are consistently different by a margin that is well outside the purported confidence limits.

              And Frank must be well aware of that because in what I have read of his posts and comments, he has consistently been pointing to the trends within a poll rather than the actual poll numbers and applying them to the actual election results. In other words, correctly looking at the poll numbers and using them for the only thing they are good for – trends.

              I haven’t seen him misuse the stats yet apart from his rounding errors. ]

            • bad12 4.1.1.1.1.3
              2 April 2012 at 1:40 pm

              Changing that vowel would seem suitable moderation indeed…

            • Wonker 4.1.1.1.1.4
              2 April 2012 at 1:42 pm

              Fair enough – how about we look at a longer time period:

              Feb (2011) 51
              Apr 54
              May 52
              Jul 53
              Aug 56
              Sep 56
              Oct 56
              Nov (5 -9) 54
              Nov (12-16)53
              Nov (19 – 23)50
              Mar (2012) 51

              One can say that National has consistently polled above 50% between 50% and 56%. So while one could get excited about a downward trend since Oct (which generally always happens in the run-up to an election) a longer-term 12-month view suggests that this isn’t material. National starts 2012 with the same estimate of popularity as it started 2011. If you care enough to do some calculations on this go for gold.

              • Te Reo Putake …
                2 April 2012 at 2:10 pm

                Three points.
                 
                One, Colmar Brunton had the Nats at 50 going into the election. Actual result? 47%. CB consistently over-rate the right.
                 
                Secondly, under MMP, even with that 47%, National needed 5 extra votes to have a workable Government. Those 5 seats will be reduced to one at the next election, maybe two if Dunne is forgiven for the asset sales lies.
                 
                Thirdly, the alternative Government (Labour, Greens, NZF) is polling between 43 and 46% since the election (and higher in the more accurate Roy Morgan poll). They only have to improve slightly to win power. A mere ten thousand votes, I’m told.
                 
                 

                • Wonker …
                  2 April 2012 at 2:23 pm

                  I think you’ll find the election day result as within the margin of error. You’ll also find that CB at National at the second lowest estimation and only 0.8% points higher than Roy Morgan. Not including the spurious Horizon poll.

                  “Those 5 seats will be reduced to one at the next election, maybe two if Dunne is forgiven for the asset sales lies.”

                  Care to lend me your time travel device. Thanks.

                  Full disclosure: I don’t particularly care who wins in 2014 – so vent all you want.

                  • Te Reo Putake …
                    2 April 2012 at 2:41 pm

                    Jeez, you give up easy, Wonker! Better luck next time, eh.

                    • Wonker …
                      2 April 2012 at 3:00 pm

                      Man, I see in the Standard the strongest and smartest men [sic] who’ve ever lived. I see all this potential, and I see squandering. God damn it, an entire generation pumping out posts, writing comments; slaves with keyboards. PR has them chasing polls and rumors, trawling through muck they hate so they can make up shit they don’t need. They’re the middle children of history, man. No real purpose or place. They have no Great War. No Great Depression. Their Great War’s a spiritual war… their Great Depression is their lives. All been raised on clusterf*ck television to believe that one day they’ll make a difference. But they won’t. And they’re slowly learning that fact. And they’re very, very pissed off.

                    • Jackal …
                      2 April 2012 at 5:52 pm

                      Hey Wonker, would you happen to know why Culmar Brunton hasn’t published the report? I mean if you can take some time out from your ranting that is.

                    • Wonker …
                      2 April 2012 at 6:11 pm

                      I’m guessing it’s all part of the global capitalist conspiracy. It was probably a strategic action agreed at Davos. Shhh don’t tell anyone.

                  • McFlock …
                    2 April 2012 at 2:49 pm

                    I think you’ll find the election day result as within the margin of error. 

                     
                    Oh look dear, the parrot has learned a new word.
                          
                    You might want to read the pre-election poll.  On the face of it you would be almost correct, given the CB max error of 3.1% and a CB:ER ratio of  50%:47.31%. But look at the results – they obviously round the larger parties’ support. So National’s actual support might be anywhere in the region of 49.5%–50.49%, meaning with the max error something in the region of 46.8%–53.6%. Yes, the difference between 47.3 and 49.5 is error-level stuff. but 53:47 is an interesting disparity. And if you look at the poll mix over extended periods, CB is consistently to the right of the spread.
                         
                    Fascinating stuff, but then I’m a geek at heart. 

                    • Wonker …
                      2 April 2012 at 3:06 pm

                      You’re giving me goosebumps.

                    • McFlock …
                      2 April 2012 at 3:14 pm

                      lol

                    • BW Lord …
                      2 April 2012 at 4:08 pm

                      @ Wonker

                      Love your post above. Would vote it for post of the day.
                      Wonder how many here can pick out the reference.

                    • McFlock …
                      2 April 2012 at 4:54 pm

                      Somehow I don’t think wonker picks the marxist overtones in it.
                           
                      In fact, I think that that wonker probably just chose some macho bullshit that looked cool in a film (I doubt he reads much) and had lines at the beginning and end that he could mean sarcastically.

                    • Wonker …
                      2 April 2012 at 5:22 pm

                      Oh noes my ‘marxist’ credentials are being audited.

                      Personally I like to think of the passage in Gramscian terms (admittedly his thought is classed as ‘Marxist’).

                      Strum my pain McFlock… strum my pain.

                    • McFlock …
                      2 April 2012 at 5:26 pm

                      yeah whatever, dude

                    • Te Reo Putake …
                      2 April 2012 at 5:48 pm

                      “wonder how many can pick up the reference”
                       
                      Meh, it’s just a Hollywood scriptwriter being lazy and dumbing down the classics for the masses. Here’s the source.

      • Robert Glennie 4.1.2
        2 April 2012 at 9:10 pm

        They are dropping Frank, because National has been way too hasty trying to get big radical reforms underway and is not doing due diligence on the legislation it is trying to pass before it goes to Parliament. An example is the – I believe very dangerous – Social Security Bill currently taking submissions (you have until 13 April). It affects the way people as diverse as pensioners and school age children; young mothers and people on the dole get their benefits. Some aspects are frankly Orwellian in nature – like the clock will be rather close to striking 13 if passed into law.

  5. captain hook 5
    2 April 2012 at 11:22 am

    I’m not sure about the daily MSN poll as I think Hooton and co manipulate it but today it says that a significant percentage believes that national has done a poor job this term.

    • Frank Macskasy 5.1
      2 April 2012 at 11:41 am

      I heard Hooton on Radio NZ today. I cannot believe that he couldn’t see the significance of those poll results.

      I’ve emailed RNZ a link to my blogpost.

  6. Sanctuary 6
    2 April 2012 at 11:33 am

    Even when I checked the result on Curia, the undecided vote was not listed. So to my mind, National could be sloughing support to the undecideds, whilst only reporting on the decided vote makes it look like National is doing better than it actually is.

  7. captain hook 7
    2 April 2012 at 12:03 pm

    and then along comes gosman and plays the man and not the ball.
    a typical tory trick for lack of anything substantial to say and bury their venality under a welter of meaningless verbiage.

  8. Bill 8
    2 April 2012 at 12:20 pm

    I don’t usually give much of a flying fuck for polls and stuff. But I just watched the TVNZ vid clip on the poll.

    Focussing more on the supporting visuals which help shape and audiences perception rather than the commentary is kind of interesting.

    John Key is shown mucking around with laughing kids accompanied with a ‘crawling ahead’ commentary and later with kids enjoying themselves and balloons being released.

    Shearer is shown getting a haircut and asking where the magazines and coffee are (hardly ‘inspiring’) and shearing a sheep (Labour will fleece you?)

    Add on top that National are referred to as a ‘centre right’ (ie moderate) party rather than by the more accurate epithet of ‘extreme right’ or just plain ‘right wing’ party and the message this particular media outlet wishes to portray becomes pretty damned obvious. (Just a thought, but if National are ‘centre right’, then doesn’t that make Labour completely redundant in the eyes of most people?)

    Forget about ACC and all the other nonsense and drama coming from National. When the media couches information with pleasing or positive visuals (or at least neutral rather than negative images) and when they also use misleading labels to describe or ‘place’ those they are commenting on, then it is that, rather than any substantial issues laid over the top of that framework, which will influence and ‘inform’ people.

  9. james 111 9
    2 April 2012 at 2:28 pm

    Whatever way you look at it a great result for the Nats with all the crap going on. John Key still comes out smelling of roses. Much to the disdain of the Labour voters.
    Shows the opposition isn’t really being effective in the house ,and are scoring very little if any blows being challenged in the house by David Shearer is somewhat similar to a person hitting you with a wet paper towel. The Nick Smith affair did nothing for Labour as most punters saw that as being very Petty ,and they all remember how Long Helen Clark kept Phillip Taito Fields in train just to remain in government when the man was found to be a exploiter ,and a criminal. Yes I think National will quietly smiling over that Poll.

    • Te Reo Putake 9.1
      2 April 2012 at 2:53 pm

      So you haven’t read the post or any of the comments, James? Just riffing on the headline, hoping for the best?

  10. james 111 10
    2 April 2012 at 9:08 pm

    Great comment this from another blog so I thought I would share it with you for your further edification. Explains the Poll result in a nut shell really.

    (1) No one cares about the ACC thing.
    (2) Lots of people care about the port strikes.
    (3) But mostly not in the way that Labour want them to care.

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  • Why Tory Whanau has the lowest approval rating in the country
    Bryce Edwards writes – Polling shows that Wellington Mayor Tory Whanau has the lowest approval rating of any mayor in the country. Siting at -12 per cent, the proportion of constituents who disapprove of her performance outweighs those who give her the thumbs up. This negative rating is ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • Worst poll result for a new Government in MMP history
    Luxon will no doubt put a brave face on it, but there is no escaping the pressure this latest poll will put on him and the government. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago

  • Pinning down climate change's role in extreme weather
    This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler In the wake of any unusual weather event, someone inevitably asks, “Did climate change cause this?” In the most literal sense, that answer is almost always no. Climate change is never the sole cause of hurricanes, heat waves, droughts, or ...
    Skeptical Science
    2 days ago

  • Serving at Seymour's pleasure.
    Something odd happened yesterday, and I’d love to know if there’s more to it. If there was something which preempted what happened, or if it was simply a throwaway line in response to a journalist.Yesterday David Seymour was asked at a press conference what the process would be if the ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago

  • Webworm LA Pop-Up
    Hi,From time to time, I want to bring Webworm into the real world. We did it last year with the Jurassic Park event in New Zealand — which was a lot of fun!And so on Saturday May 11th, in Los Angeles, I am hosting a lil’ Webworm pop-up! I’ve been ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    2 days ago

  • “Feel good” school is out
    Education Minister Erica Standford yesterday unveiled a fundamental reform of the way our school pupils are taught. She would not exactly say so, but she is all but dismantling the so-called “inquiry” “feel good” method of teaching, which has ruled in our classrooms since a major review of the New ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    2 days ago

  • 6 Months in, surely our Report Card is “Ignored all warnings: recommend dismissal ASAP”?
    Exactly where are we seriously going with this government and its policies? That is, apart from following what may as well be a Truss-Lite approach on the purported economic “plan“, and Victorian-era regression when it comes to social policy. Oh it’ll work this time of course, we’re basically assured, “the ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    3 days ago

  • Bread, and how it gets buttered
    Hey Uncle Dave, When the Poms joined the EEC, I wasn't one of those defeatists who said, Well, that’s it for the dairy job. And I was right, eh? The Chinese can’t get enough of our milk powder and eventually, the Poms came to their senses and backed up the ute ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago

  • Bryce Edwards: Why Tory Whanau has the lowest approval rating in the country
    Polling shows that Wellington Mayor Tory Whanau has the lowest approval rating of any mayor in the country. Siting at -12 per cent, the proportion of constituents who disapprove of her performance outweighs those who give her the thumbs up. This negative rating is higher than for any other mayor ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    3 days ago

  • Justice for Gaza?
    The New York Times reports that the International Criminal Court is about to issue arrest warrants for Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, over their genocide in Gaza: Israeli officials increasingly believe that the International Criminal Court is preparing to issue arrest warrants for senior government officials on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago

  • If there has been any fiddling with Pharmac’s funding, we can count on Paula to figure out the fis...
    Buzz from the Beehive Pharmac has been given a financial transfusion and a new chair to oversee its spending in the pharmaceutical business. Associate Health Minister David Seymour described the funding for Pharmac as “its largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff”. ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago

  • FastTrackWatch – The case for the Government’s Fast Track Bill
    Bryce Edwards writes – Many criticisms are being made of the Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill, including by this writer. But as with everything in politics, every story has two sides, and both deserve attention. It’s important to understand what the Government is trying to achieve and its ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Bernard’s pick 'n' mix for Monday, April 29
    TL;DR: Here’s my top 10 ‘pick ‘n’ mix of links to news, analysis and opinion articles as of 10:10am on Monday, April 29:Scoop: The children's ward at Rotorua Hospital will be missing a third of its beds as winter hits because Te Whatu Ora halted an upgrade partway through to ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell on Iran killing its rappers, and searching for the invisible Dr. Reti
    span class=”dropcap”>As hideous as David Seymour can be, it is worth keeping in mind occasionally that there are even worse political figures (and regimes) out there. Iran for instance, is about to execute the country’s leading hip hop musician Toomaj Salehi, for writing and performing raps that “corrupt” the nation’s ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    3 days ago

  • Auckland Rail Electrification 10 years old
    Yesterday marked 10 years since the first electric train carried passengers in Auckland so it’s a good time to look back at it and the impact it has had. A brief history The first proposals for rail electrification in Auckland came in the 1920’s alongside the plans for earlier ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    3 days ago

  • Coalition's dirge of austerity and uncertainty is driving the economy into a deeper recession
    Right now, in Aotearoa-NZ, our ‘animal spirits’ are darkening towards a winter of discontent, thanks at least partly to a chorus of negative comments and actions from the Government Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • Disability Funding or Tax Cuts.
    You make people evil to punish the paststuck inside a sequel with a rotating castThe following photos haven’t been generated with AI, or modified in any way. They are flesh and blood, human beings. On the left is Galatea Young, a young mum, and her daughter Fiadh who has Angelman ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago

  • Of the Goodness of Tolkien’s Eru
    April has been a quiet month at A Phuulish Fellow. I have had an exceptionally good reading month, and a decently productive writing month – for original fiction, anyway – but not much has caught my eye that suggested a blog article. It has been vaguely frustrating, to be honest. ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    3 days ago

  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
    A listing of 31 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 21, 2024 thru Sat, April 27, 2024. Story of the week Anthropogenic climate change may be the ultimate shaggy dog story— but with a twist, because here ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago

  • Pastor Who Abused People, Blames People
    Hi,I spent about a year on Webworm reporting on an abusive megachurch called Arise, and it made me want to stab my eyes out with a fork.I don’t regret that reporting in 2022 and 2023 — I am proud of it — but it made me angry.Over three main stories ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    4 days ago

  • Vic Uni shows how under threat free speech is
    The new Victoria University Vice-Chancellor decided to have a forum at the university about free speech and academic freedom as it is obviously a topical issue, and the Government is looking at legislating some carrots or sticks for universities to uphold their obligations under the Education and Training Act. They ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Winston remembers Gettysburg.
    Do you remember when Melania Trump got caught out using a speech that sounded awfully like one Michelle Obama had given? Uncannily so.Well it turns out that Abraham Lincoln is to Winston Peters as Michelle was to Melania. With the ANZAC speech Uncle Winston gave at Gallipoli having much in ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago

  • 25
    She was born 25 years ago today in North Shore hospital. Her eyes were closed tightly shut, her mouth was silently moving. The whole theatre was all quiet intensity as they marked her a 2 on the APGAR test. A one-minute eternity later, she was an 8.  The universe was ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago

  • Fact Brief – Is Antarctica gaining land ice?
    Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park in collaboration with members from our Skeptical Science team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Is Antarctica gaining land ice? ...
    Skeptical Science
    5 days ago

  • Policing protests.
    Images of US students (and others) protesting and setting up tent cities on US university campuses have been broadcast world wide and clearly demonstrate the growing rifts in US society caused by US policy toward Israel and Israel’s prosecution of … Continue reading → ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    5 days ago

  • Open letter to Hon Paul Goldsmith
    Barrie Saunders writes – Dear Paul As the new Minister of Media and Communications, you will be inundated with heaps of free advice and special pleading, all in the national interest of course. For what it’s worth here is my assessment: Traditional broadcasting free to air content through ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • Bryce Edwards: FastTrackWatch – The Case for the Government’s Fast Track Bill
    Many criticisms are being made of the Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill, including by this writer. But as with everything in politics, every story has two sides, and both deserve attention. It’s important to understand what the Government is trying to achieve and its arguments for such a bold reform. ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    5 days ago

  • Luxon gets out his butcher’s knife – briefly
    Peter Dunne writes –  The great nineteenth British Prime Minister, William Gladstone, once observed that “the first essential for a Prime Minister is to be a good butcher.” When a later British Prime Minister, Harold Macmillan, sacked a third of his Cabinet in July 1962, in what became ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • More tax for less
    Ele Ludemann writes – New Zealanders had the OECD’s second highest tax increase last year: New Zealanders faced the second-biggest tax raises in the developed world last year, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) says. The intergovernmental agency said the average change in personal income tax ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • Real News vs Fake News.
    We all know something’s not right with our elections. The spread of misinformation, people being targeted with soundbites and emotional triggers that ignore the facts, even the truth, and influence their votes.The use of technology to produce deep fakes. How can you tell if something is real or not? Can ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago

  • Another way to roll
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Share ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago

  • Simon Clark: The climate lies you'll hear this year
    This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Simon Clark. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). This year you will be lied to! Simon Clark helps prebunk some misleading statements you'll hear about climate. The video includes ...
    Skeptical Science
    5 days ago

  • Cutting the Public Service
    It is all very well cutting the backrooms of public agencies but it may compromise the frontlines. One of the frustrations of the Productivity Commission’s 2017 review of universities is that while it observed that their non-academic staff were increasing faster than their academic staff, it did not bother to ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    6 days ago

  • Luxon’s demoted ministers might take comfort from the British politician who bounced back after th...
    Buzz from the Beehive Two speeches delivered by Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters at Anzac Day ceremonies in Turkey are the only new posts on the government’s official website since the PM announced his Cabinet shake-up. In one of the speeches, Peters stated the obvious:  we live in a troubled ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • This is how I roll over
    1. Which of these would you not expect to read in The Waikato Invader?a. Luxon is here to do business, don’t you worry about thatb. Mr KPI expects results, and you better believe itc. This decisive man of action is getting me all hot and excitedd. Melissa Lee is how ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago

  • The Waitangi Tribunal is not “a roving Commission”…
    …it has a restricted jurisdiction which must not be abused: it is not an inquisition   NOTE – this article was published before the High Court ruled that Karen Chhour does not have to appear before the Waitangi Tribunal Gary Judd writes –  The High Court ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • Is Oranga Tamariki guilty of neglect?
    Lindsay Mitchell writes – One of reasons Oranga Tamariki exists is to prevent child neglect. But could the organisation itself be guilty of the same? Oranga Tamariki’s statistics show a decrease in the number and age of children in care. “There are less children ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • Three Strikes saw lower reoffending
    David Farrar writes: Graeme Edgeler wrote in 2017: In the first five years after three strikes came into effect 5248 offenders received a ‘first strike’ (that is, a “stage-1 conviction” under the three strikes sentencing regime), and 68 offenders received a ‘second strike’. In the five years prior to ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • Luxon’s ruthless show of strength is perfect for our angry era
    Bryce Edwards writes – Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has surprised everyone with his ruthlessness in sacking two of his ministers from their crucial portfolios. Removing ministers for poor performance after only five months in the job just doesn’t normally happen in politics. That’s refreshing and will be extremely ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • 'Lacks attention to detail and is creating double-standards.'
    TL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy in the two days to 6:06am on Thursday, April 25:Politics: PM Christopher Luxon has set up a dual standard for ministerial competence by demoting two National Cabinet ministers while leaving also-struggling ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • One Night Only!
    Hi,Today I mainly want to share some of your thoughts about the recent piece I wrote about success and failure, and the forces that seemingly guide our lives. But first, a quick bit of housekeeping: I am doing a Webworm popup in Los Angeles on Saturday May 11 at 2pm. ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago

  • What did Melissa Lee do?
    It is hard to see what Melissa Lee might have done to “save” the media. National went into the election with no public media policy and appears not to have developed one subsequently. Lee claimed that she had prepared a policy paper before the election but it had been decided ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago

  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #17 2024
    Open access notables Ice acceleration and rotation in the Greenland Ice Sheet interior in recent decades, Løkkegaard et al., Communications Earth & Environment: In the past two decades, mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet has accelerated, partly due to the speedup of glaciers. However, uncertainty in speed derived from satellite products ...
    Skeptical Science
    7 days ago

  • Maori Party (with “disgust”) draws attention to Chhour’s race after the High Court rules on Wa...
    Buzz from the Beehive A statement from Children’s Minister Karen Chhour – yet to be posted on the Government’s official website – arrived in Point of Order’s email in-tray last night. It welcomes the High Court ruling on whether the Waitangi Tribunal can demand she appear before it. It does ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    7 days ago

  • Who’s Going Up The Media Mountain?
    Mr Bombastic: Ironically, the media the academic experts wanted is, in many ways, the media they got. In place of the tyrannical editors of yesteryear, advancing without fear or favour the interests of the ruling class; the New Zealand news media of today boasts a troop of enlightened journalists dedicated to ...
    Bowalley Road
    7 days ago

  • “That's how I roll”
    It's hard times try to make a livingYou wake up every morning in the unforgivingOut there somewhere in the cityThere's people living lives without mercy or pityI feel good, yeah I'm feeling fineI feel better then I have for the longest timeI think these pills have been good for meI ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago

  • “Comity” versus the rule of law
    In 1974, the US Supreme Court issued its decision in United States v. Nixon, finding that the President was not a King, but was subject to the law and was required to turn over the evidence of his wrongdoing to the courts. It was a landmark decision for the rule ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago

  • Streamlining Building Consent Changes
    The Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says.      “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 hours ago

  • Minister acknowledges passing of Sir Robert Martin (KNZM)
    New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    16 hours ago

  • Speech to New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Parliament – Annual Lecture: Challenges ...
    Good evening –   Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us.  ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    16 hours ago

  • Accelerating airport security lines
    From today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    18 hours ago

  • Community hui to talk about kina barrens
    People with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    24 hours ago

  • Kiwi exporters win as NZ-EU FTA enters into force
    Kiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Mining resurgence a welcome sign
    There are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill passes first reading
    The return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Government to boost public EV charging network
    Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure.  The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Residential Property Managers Bill to not progress
    The coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Independent review into disability support services
    The Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Justice Minister updates UN on law & order plan
    Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Ending emergency housing motels in Rotorua
    The Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Trade Minister travels to Riyadh, OECD, and Dubai
    Trade Minister Todd McClay heads overseas today for high-level trade talks in the Gulf region, and a key OECD meeting in Paris. Mr McClay will travel to Riyadh to meet with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). “New Zealand’s goods and services exports to the Gulf region ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Education priorities focused on lifting achievement
    Education Minister Erica Stanford has outlined six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system that sets Kiwi kids up for future success. “I’m putting ambition, achievement and outcomes at the heart of our education system. I want every child to be inspired and engaged in their learning so they ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • NZTA App first step towards digital driver licence
    The new NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) App is a secure ‘one stop shop’ to provide the services drivers need, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Digitising Government Minister Judith Collins say.  “The NZTA App will enable an easier way for Kiwis to pay for Vehicle Registration and Road User Charges (RUC). ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Supporting whānau out of emergency housing
    Whānau with tamariki growing up in emergency housing motels will be prioritised for social housing starting this week, says Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka. “Giving these whānau a better opportunity to build healthy stable lives for themselves and future generations is an essential part of the Government’s goal of reducing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Tribute to Dave O'Sullivan
    Racing Minister Winston Peters has paid tribute to an icon of the industry with the recent passing of Dave O’Sullivan (OBE). “Our sympathies are with the O’Sullivan family with the sad news of Dave O’Sullivan’s recent passing,” Mr Peters says. “His contribution to racing, initially as a jockey and then ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Speech – Eid al-Fitr
    Assalaamu alaikum, greetings to you all. Eid Mubarak, everyone! I want to extend my warmest wishes to you and everyone celebrating this joyous occasion. It is a pleasure to be here. I have enjoyed Eid celebrations at Parliament before, but this is my first time joining you as the Minister ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Government saves access to medicines
    Associate Health Minister David Seymour has announced Pharmac’s largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff.    “Access to medicines is a crucial part of many Kiwis’ lives. We’ve committed to a budget allocation of $1.774 billion over four years so Kiwis are ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Pharmac Chair appointed
    Hon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Taking action on Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder
    Hundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says.  “Every day, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • New sports complex opens in Kaikohe
    Regional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Diplomacy needed more than ever
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges.    “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Anzac Commemorative Address, Buttes New British Cemetery Belgium
    Ambassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service.  It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • Anzac Commemorative Address – NZ National Service, Chunuk Bair
    Distinguished guests -   It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders.   Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago

  • Anzac Commemorative Address – Dawn Service, Gallipoli, Türkiye
    Mai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia.   Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago

  • PM announces changes to portfolios
    Paul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • New catch limits for unique fishery areas
    Recreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Minister welcomes hydrogen milestone
    Energy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Urgent changes to system through first RMA Amendment Bill
    The coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Overseas decommissioning models considered
    Overseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Release of North Island Severe Weather Event Inquiry
    Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • Justice Minister to attend Human Rights Council
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