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notices and features - Date published:
5:30 pm, February 19th, 2018 - 131 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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Can anyone name a more amoral and repulsive profession than being a mercenary?
Bluntly speaking that means being prepared to kill people for money.
What euphemisms can be used for a mercenary group?
A security consultancy.
Radio New Zealand’s euphemism
“a private security company in the Middle East.”
Foreign Exchange dealer is a fairly amoral profession, killing economies for money…
Good point
Said Global warming has a human fingerprint . Not much else in his interview on RNZ
Who?
Was he (Mitchell) asked if the Iraq invasion was justified/legal?
His response is bound to be entertaining if any journalist ever summons the courage to ask.
Big change in Colmar Brunton poll tonite …
Labour 48
National 43
Greens 5
NZ First 3
Ardern soaring as preferred PM to 41.
Good times …
Jeebus that hurts national
Well, it doesn’t hurt National per se. As an opposition party which has 3 terms it is a good result for them. What hurts is the no support
Would you be ok with the Greens out of parliament and Labour governing on its own?
Nope.
I expect things to settle back a bit. Greens have to be there they are the left wing and environmental conscience of the Parliament.
NZ FIrst on the other hand …
Yes, can’t say I’m unhappy with the NZF number. And I also think at this stage the GP number isn’t something to be particularly worried about. Worth considering long term strategy though.
I think once the Greens select their new co-leader they’ll have everything in place to build their support.
Build there support from where?
Greens have positioned themselves as a far left party targetting the beneficiary, anti-capitalism, SJW crowd which will be cast in stone with Marama Davidson becoming co-leader.
You can’t tell me those people are voting Labour?, the party of a thousand backflips, so again where are these Green supporters going to come from
Personally, I think the Green party is fucked, it used to be left wing cool and hip but Jacinda’s stolen that vibe and now that greens have nothing.
There are plenty of people interested in changing capitalism and doing a bit of social justice warrioring.
Where are they?
Are they voting Labour? or are they so insignificant they don’t even make the margin of error?
Why do you care? Oh that’s right, you don’t, and you want the Greens to fail. Let’s just understand your comment in that light.
Of course, I don’t care about the Greens they offer nothing to me politically
Completely wedded to Labour why would a National voter care if they lived or died?
Having said that though If the Greens developed the ability to go cross-party then obviously that attitude would probably change.
A liveable planet perhaps with a breathable atmosphere and drinkable water? You clearly didn’t think this one through, did you? Colour me surprised.
BM has Mad Max fantasies (I’m not joking).
I’m doing a calendar next month, apocalypse theme, lots of leather, bare buttocks and studs.
Should I put you down for a dozen or so?
“I’m doing a calendar next month, apocalypse theme, lots of leather, bare buttocks and studs.
Should I put you down for a dozen or so?”
Thanks, but no thanks BM. I’m still wanting the use of my eyeballs for a few decades, and I’m thinking having to stab them with a ballpoint after seeing those images might be detrimental to that need.
What abour your children and grandchildren?
You need to read this book, bm
‘Storms of My Grandchildren
The Truth about the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity’
https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/storms-of-my-grandchildren-9781608195022/
Ed wrote. “What abour your children and grandchildren?
You need to read this book, bm”
I thought for a minute, Ed, you were concerned that BM’s descendants might see the calendar!
Climate change horror can be handled, but not in leather.
The last time BM ‘spoke’ to me ………. he asked if I was German.. and then doubled up on the weird, by insinuating I had a thing for ‘tight pants’ …. strange and amusing I thought … or ‘vot iz dis scwheizenhund?’
Now he writes …”I’m doing a calendar next month, apocalypse theme, lots of leather, bare buttocks and studs.”
Come out of the closet BM …. lose the repression ..become that happy gay leather chappy.
“I think once the Greens select their new co-leader they’ll have everything in place to build their support.”
Yes, I think this is true. Also time, for people to see what they are actually doing in government. It’s not what people are used to. The Greens are playing the long game, and they’re building relationships, and they’re changing how politics is done.
“And I also think at this stage the GP number isn’t something to be particularly worried about.”
Ha.
I imagine NZ First will start peeling votes off national, once this leadership battle gets messy
Don’t think leftish Labour voters will ever allow that to happen Weka.
In any case, if TPPA 11 is signed in March, 3% or so will shift back to the Greens.
Aye.
Leftish Labour voters already let that happen at the last election when they voted Labour.
But not below 5%, and I genuinely think urban liberal Labour supporters would vote Green if it was necessary.
Urban liberal Labour supporters are ok with the Greens on 5 or 6%. That’s a problem. Because next election if it’s as tight as it is today, how many LW voters will vote Labour because they’re worried about their vote being wasted if the GP slips under 5%?
The 5-6% ballpark is too narrow for my taste, too. Labour need friends to govern, just like National do. A quick change in the polling period could leave grn on 4.9% and we’re screwed.
But way early days yet. Too early for obsessive poll watching at this stage. I’d expect a government increase after the second budget. That’s when the improvements will start being really evident.
Leftish Labour voters already let that happen at the last election when they voted Labour.
True, but if the Green Party was looking like there was a risk of it falling below the threshold come election time, there’d be plenty of Labour voters willing to vote strategically to prevent that from happening. Effectively, this poll puts the Labour/Green vote at 53%, let’s just take the compliment.
That’s the exact reason I voted Green last time, for the first time.
Right. Which suggests to me that Labour voters want the Greens at the sweet spot of 6 or 7%. But not higher.
I don’t care about the exact level of Green support. I don’t prefer lower levels to higher levels at this stage. Which would I prefer if Labour and the Greens were about equal? To quote Rick Blaine, “ask me when you get there”.
But I do believe both the Greens and Labour are essential parts of my ideal government. I voted Green because I thought they might not get in, not because I want them at a specific voting range.
I really only stress about two thresholds: 5% and 50%. The rest is horse trading.
Right. So if at the next election the GP was polling like today, there will be people who *won’t vote for them for fear of wasting their vote. That’s a risk. Even if you don’t care about the ratios, having the Greens sitting just above the threshold is not safe for the left.
Well, it depends how far they think through it – getting Labour on 40% with no coalition partners is also a wasted vote.
So if the Greens are polling 4 to 7%, I would most likely vote Green regardless of whether I still prefer Labour.
If, on the other hand, Greens are on 9%, and NZ1 are on 4 to 7%, I’m nopt sure I’d be able to pull myself to vote for NZ1. But I suspect other Labour voters would tend towards that decision.
But I still think this is all augury – we’ll see what happens when the Greens are up and running with a full leadership team and some more policy achievements under their belts.
Why would you vote NZF?
The only reason I could think of would be as a third coalition partner..
Unless a better option comes along.
A labgrn coalition with them is still better than the nats in government.
I’m assuming the strategy will be aiming for L/G.
LG would be my preferred, but tbh I think Labour tacticians would prefer Labour being in the position to choose between NZ1 and Greens as a coalition partner, rather than needing both.
But the Greens and Labour do seem to dovetail nicely without too much in the way of opposing forces.
I think that’s true (about Labour), but that’s the problem. Because as long as Labour hedge their bets like that they support NZF. Had they gone a bit more left they would have picked up more NZF votes. It looks to me like the only way the left can grow a bigger govt is for Labour to take NZF and swing votes and for the Greens to regain their vote and pick up some Labour and non-vote. If that doesn’t happen, what’s going to happen when Peters is no longer around?
I think NZ1 are aiming for the regions. Not left wing votes.
I also suspect, with nothing but my own belly button for support, that Labour will pick up the swing votes, NZ1 the regional nat votes (especially if collins gets in), and the greens will pick up some Labour and some non-voters.
Same here.
I predicted they’d end on about 5.7-6.0% after Specials. (as it turned out, they did a little better) … but was all a bit too close to the 5% hurdle for comfort … so I thought “What the Hell, toss a strategic party vote their way … you only live once”
or they’d vote Labour out of fear of their vote being wasted. Willing to bet this happened last year.
Yes
It’s good to see Nats on the slide… and a slight drop in NZF.
Sad to see the Greens drop as they are the only government/support party to stand firm on opposing the TPPA_byAnyOtherName.
kiwis, wake up! The TPP is a biggie and will impact negatively on a lot of Kiwis – especially the least well off Kiwis.
It’s amazing how things have turned around in less than a year. And the way things are, I’m not even sure the next National PM is currently sitting in Parliament.
Interesting observation Ovid. In 2008 when Labour lost the election, the next Labour PM had just entered parliament for the first time but was yet to be officially anointed as a list MP.
– And was the youngest MP at the time.
+1, nice one Ovid.
He may not even be spawned yet.
But David Farrar said the honeymoon was over! I’m shocked!
OAB – there are alternative explanations which DPF may deploy. Place your bet:
The honeymoon is delayed and not genuine
The honeymoon is weaker than that obtained by the masterful John Key
The honeymoon is only because of the baby
The honeymoon is the end of the Greens
The honeymoon won’t last because a new National leader will get a bounce (actually I suspect this bounce is what happens on a gallows when the rope snaps tight, but I’ll let it go – not the rope I mean, would never let the rope go)
The honeymoon is attributable to sunspot activity causing temporary mental derangement
The honeymoon is a rogue poll and completely different from ‘internal polling’
The honeymoon is illegitimate like the election result (and the baby)
The honeymoon is just a shadow of a honeymoon cast on the wall of the cave and there is no way of knowing if there is truly an essence of the honeymoon anywhere
There can’t be a honeymoon because I am a sad, boring, droning git
One thing Labour must not do, and that is to commit the error of National in 2017 and try to rule alone. No time for hubris- there never is.
48% is great for Labour and recognition for wise, inclusive and humble leadership and action.
I wouldn’t put to much emphasis on the low results for the coalition partners, the public is very happy with the new Govt, Labour being the largest party has received lions share of the poll, but – the coalition partners have contributed considerably to performance of the Govt as a whole and should be proud to be associated.
IMHO the poll should also contain a question on the coalition performance as a whole, and then compare with individual results.
I dont really like that 5 for the Greens. I feel it could readily have been 10-15 (of course I would prefer to see 25-35)
A.
That poll result is bound to have some influence on which way the Nat leadership goes.
If they go for Collins she may be gone by Christmas as Nat support drops below 35%.
Fun times ahead alright 🙂
Oh, and its possible that Mr Mitchell could be the leader of a new right party, not Collins. Aha, the plot thickens……………………
Bradbury’s perspective.
Looks like you are both on the same page.
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2018/02/19/why-mark-mitchells-run-at-leadership-is-a-scam-is-this-tracy-watkins-worst-political-column-of-all-time/
I really hope this comes to pass…unless he’s a fundie in which case I hope it doesn’t
Er, you really hope that the next government is run by someone renowned for corrupt practice and dirty politics, alongside a right-wing authoritarian nationalist who made a mint running mercenaries for the occupation of Iraq? Oh, wait, it’s you – scratch that, no surprises there then.
Alleged
Oh yeah, that’s the endorsement every party looks for in a possible Prime Minster: “Those allegations were never proven!”
Heh, made me think of father ted.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-bnh162vqk4
I have been looking to see what I could find on Mark Mitchell’s
mercenaryPrivate Security Contract company (as described in Mitchell’s wikipedia page)Apparently it was called the Threat Management Group, and was a subsidiary of Agility Logistics.
Can’t find that much about them in Mitchell’s time. But they have a website.
Agility Logistics has a wikipedia page
The CEO IS Tarek Sultan, who, like Mitchell went to The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania – a business school.
Mitchell doesn’t appear on the list of notable alumni of the Wharton School – there’s a load of people I’ve never heard of.
But, lookee there, there’s a guy who was convicted of insider trading, another convicted of securities reporting violations, Warren Buffett, Elon Musk, some google and Apple people, Lawrence Lessig, some politicians, and then…. Donald Trump 45th president of the US, Donald Trump jr, Ivanka Trump.
heh.
But couldn’t find anything much about Mitchell at Threat Management Group.
Good research.
You’ll never get a job with the msm.
Is Mark Mitchell the grandson of Frank Gill ?
apparently so…
http://www.stuff.co.nz/sunday-star-times/features/4810730/In-the-line-of-duty
Now there goes an utter ponce if I ever met one.
Quiteamusing to see the gNats evolution.
There’ll be a few rolling in theirs graves…Collins, but more so Bennett.
Ugly people in general. Does Chris Finlayson stick phat with them under some illusion they’re still principled and ethical people, or is he just trying on gNat veneer (beige Formica TM) that class distinction no longer matters?
Amusing and quite fucking pathetic really
Sorry, are you saying Frank Gill was an utter ponce?
You must excuse oncewastim, he was momentarily struck with his own cleverness and became uncharacteristically incoherent.
The other thing Bomber highlights is how compromised Tracy Watkins is.
The puffery she writes about Mitchell is unbelievable.
Some of the most vomitous and nauseating ways she describes Mitchell.
‘a dark horse.’
‘Former police officer and hostage negotiator’
‘ in the mold of former prime minister Sir John Key’
‘a to-die-for back story’
‘He was stabbed in the line of duty’
‘a top international hostage negotiator’
‘media savvy’
‘ reminiscent of Key in his early days’
Who wrote this tripe?
Lusk, Slater, Williams or another far right extremist?
No mention of some of the work he did in the Middle East.
Maybe Watkins had never read this news.
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1704/S00291/new-defence-minister-a-mercenary-in-us-wars.htm
I wonder what Slater or Lusk have on Watkins.
Jenna Lynch has clearly been given her orders as well.
‘He has a trademark grin’
‘Mitchell is a straight shooter. It’s refreshing.’
‘Mark Mitchell let a little something slip during his National Party leadership bid announcement – the truth.’
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2018/02/jenna-lynch-mark-mitchell-s-slip-of-the-truth-refreshing.html
Lynch and Watkins remind me that the media are just mindless repeaters. Puppets who dance to the tune of the owners and masters.
They remind me of this clip.
Mitchell from 2011
http://www.stuff.co.nz/sunday-star-times/features/4810730/In-the-line-of-duty
Yep, it’s sickening watching his on-going rehabilitation.
Did you read Watkins’ article?
Who is she scared of?
I skim-read it. I don’t affect to have any knowledge of her emotions at all.
Bradbury has his good days. That is a highly plausible strategy Ed @ 5.1. But first, it will depend on Judith Collins becoming the leader which might not happen this time but further down the track…?
Now we can watch and see if it pans out in practice.
The Nats need a support party, its as simple as that. It appears those parties that achieved some electoral success had leaders that defected from either the Nats or Labour.
The machinations inside National are deafening by their silence.
Good old revolutionary songs from the 90’s.
I keep warning people about an oncoming crash
.
Australian economist John Adams agrees with me,
He is warning the recent turmoil on global markets is just a sign of things to come, and a massive crisis is on the cards.
Shut up already, you’re predicting something that’s happened before and will happen again. I highly doubt there’s anyone (left or right) that posts on this site that doesn’t think there’ll be a crash. Ooh I know I predict National will regain power at some point.
I am merely commenting on statements made by a respected Australian economist.
Sorry you don’t like his message.
No you’re not, you’re acting as if you and you alone have information about the future and if only people would just listen to you, well you’re not Cassandra you’re just boring
Then scroll past.
That’s the second time I’ve read that from you recently. If you post contentious claims on a general comments thread, why should people who disagree with you “scroll past” rather than expressing their disagreement? That’s why an open comments thread is there, for fuck’s sake. If you can’t defend your claims, don’t instruct people to ignore them, try not posting them in the first place.
I have defended my claims.
I don’t see why I have to respond to pr’s insults, though.
You’d think he would be chatting with his biking friends….
“The respected* economist agrees with me”.
That’s not a defence, it’s an invitation.
*terms and conditions may vary
There are a lot of key independent economists saying that the same thing.
And?
Baloney detection kit, Shermer version:
Have you gone out of your way to find any contradictory opinions, Ed?
Yes, just like you gave some examples of the “many countries” who have nationalised their banks and the techniques they used to do it.
Oh wait, that’s right, you didn’t do that did you?
This is a change, I didn’t think you worked nights.
I’m on holiday doing the central otago rail trail so i figure i may as well work a few shifts while I’m here, i dont like posting from my phone but sometimes you just got to make do with what you’ve got, you know how it is
This is how you spend a holiday.
Trolling on a left wing site.
Very, very sad……..
It’s how I pay for the holiday Ed, slight but important difference
You must like Mitchell.
You’re both mercenaries.
Oh that sounds pretty nice. Youre in the right place to get some of Key’s wine while youre at it too. I wouldn’t get the 2016 vintage though – bad year.
Do you believe in the rapture, Ed?
Do you?
I don’t believe in an almighty creator Ed, so no.
What about yourself Ed, do you believe in the rapture?
No.
Why do you ask?
You seem to be very end times focused.
Haha
Nice Ed, well handled.
+1
Lol….i see Toplis is already advocating ‘printing money’….perhaps he knows of a bank that may need bailing out?
“And additionally if things did go really wrong we’ve got a lot of fiscal flexibility because our government books are in pretty good order and we’ve got a lot of central bank flexibility ’cause we’ve still got some of the highest interest rates on the planet and we’ve never used quantitative easing.
“So I’m an optimist for New Zealand in a relative sense, notwithstanding that if things go nasty (globally), we’ll suffer some way or another,” he said.
or perhaps all we need to do is bluff our way through as suggested here…
“You have to look at (household indebtedness) people’s ability to service that debt and that is a function of how quickly the economy is growing, are wages going up? Is there actually economic activity that means people will be able to pay it off?
“The answer is yes. Globally this is the first time in a very long time we’ve had all the major economies actually growing,” Mr Stubbs said.”
Ah, nothing like a little confidence to keep the punters at the table….
https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/350776/is-the-global-economy-facing-a-financial-armageddon
Wayne Hope nails it.
I have been advocating for real action on the site for a while – not tinkering.
Wayne agrees with me.
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2018/02/19/must-read-this-is-a-state-of-emergency-new-zealand-at-the-turning-point/
Where’s Wayne? (Mapp) You have been conspicuous by your absence..
We know you were Minister during the raid, and Mitchell took over from you as Minister of Defense.
So , Collins Lusk and Slater, are known to have been plotting to bring in more right wing National party members, sooooo…… they helped Mitchell gain Rodney . He’s very right, right!
Are they playing a long game, of long knives????
I think a plot by “interests” to have another right wing party or group is unfolding.
What happened to the Blue Dragons? Or am I imagining things line up???
Some very good questions there.
Pity we don’t have a media that will investigate them.
Tracy Watkins appears owned by the extreme right wing.
Wayne picked up a ban a little while ago. Weka got sick of his rhetorical games. A month, iirc.
He’ll be back before you can say “Tory sophist” 😈
And here’s me thinking Dame Edna had adopted him as her poor unfortunate Kiwi Duffer
Sorry to nit pick, look I can cut defence again like I did to Health Dr Colman who replace Mapp because he said the cuts won’t work (that part is true), then the pie thief/ where did all the pies go Brownliee aka pie guts, who was then replace by Mitchell IOU 20 billion or whatever nickname you can think of.
National are heading for polling worse than 2002. The rabble that are scrabbling and jostling for power will get nowhere. John Key’s clone is being assembled at the moment and a helicopter will deliver………maybe 2026 with a shot at PM in 2029.
This will be a hard watch for the close minded among you.
Abby Martin, one of the most fearless of our independent voices in journalism, investigates the North Korean crisis.
Be warned.
Don’t watch if you accept the mainstream media’s lines without question
Did anyone else’s avatar change or is it just me?
Testing, using my “not logged in” one. No, it hasn’t changed.
ok, that’s weird then.
Feeling a bit drained? 🙂
Oh damn, I was quite enjoying the subtle.
“But there’s a catch: the nation’s 1.8 million cows are producing so much manure that there isn’t enough space to get rid of it safely.
As a result, farmers are dumping cow poo illegally, the country is breaking EU regulations on phosphates designed to prevent groundwater contamination, and the high levels of ammonia emissions are affecting air quality.
As a result, WWF is calling for a 40% cut in cow numbers over the next decade, and a return to a dairy sector that can deal with its own dung.”
Sound familiar?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/16/dutch-cow-poo-overload-causes-an-environmental-stink
Yes.
Here’s our version.
https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/country/350631/animal-effluent-warning-for-popular-swimming-rivers
“My dog-handling skills will be very handy if I get the job as Leader of the National Party,” says #4 contender, Mark Mitchell.
“”Get in behind” and “Fetch it” are for comic books and jokes but serious dogs need serious handling.”
He looks forward to putting the lap dog, poodle and rottweiler through the hoops but would not specify which breed typified which rival for the top job.
“That would be easier than ABC and in that particular order” he said.
Others might put their paws up, but his use of a short leash and judicious treats would deal with all but the barking mad. “All his colleagues were House-trained though they still chase after ducks,” he laughed.
He looked forward to the contest and the challenge. “Every dog has its day” but his dog-whistling and skills at negotiating at muzzle length should “collar” the prize, concluded the former police dog handler.
Much water to go under the bridge re this govt. Both NZ First and Greens being devoured/Greens near threshold too. So in an MMP environment, how does Labour govern without partners? FPP next election, in all but name. Winston as PM on three percent support…that’ll go down well. Counting chickens dangerous, many polls to go and possibly a Winston scandal or two. Plus fresh new National leader, bring it on!
They’re on 48% and climbing. Too easy.
In what alternate universe could anyone in the National party possibly be described as ‘fresh’?