Guest post: Simon Tegg on Peak Oil
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1:57 pm, March 18th, 2008 - 16 comments
Categories: articles, economy, Environment -
Tags: articles, economy, Environment
Meet Guest post. Guest post is 32 years old, he likes long walks on the beach and lively political debate. He is our new vehicle for experts on interesting and relevant topics to contribute posts to The Standard.
Our first guest is Simon Tegg, who has done research on peak oil. It says something about how under-prepared we are for peak oil that Simon’s papers have caused a considerable stir even among those who are well-informed on environmental issues. Anyone who is concerned about New Zealand’s long-term, even medium-term, prospects should read what Simon has written.
Guest post: Simon Tegg on Peak Oil
The theory that oil production is about to enter an irreversible decline has gained currency as oil prices have rocketed upward. Contrary to popular perception, this does not mean oil is ‘running out’, but is rather a decline in the rate at which oil can be extracted.
A peak in production rate of a finite resource typically occurs when half the resource has been extracted. There is still a lot of oil out there (perhaps half of all the oil that will ever be extracted), but as this oil is much harder to get at (eg. deepwater, Canadian tarsands) the rate of production will fall, approximately mirroring its rise over the last century. Oil discoveries peaked in the 1960’s. We have discovered less oil in every decade since then and there is no basis to believe that financial incentives and improving technology can turn around a 40 year trend. While prices have risen, oil production has been essentially flat and yearly average production is still down on 2005. A number of large oil projects are due to come online in 2008 and 2009 and production may shift up somewhat, but beyond 2012 the projects thin out dramatically. It looks like we are now at Peak Oil.
An increasing number of commentators have voiced concern, including:
- Former US Secretary of Energy, Dr James Schlesinger.
- Energy investment banker and advisor to the 2000 Bush administration, Matthew Simmons.
- Former Saudi head of production and exploration, Sadad Al Husseini.
- International Energy Agency chief economist, Fatih Birol.
- ConocoPhillips Chief Executive, James Mulva.
Their views range from a rapid decline in oil production in the short term to an emerging oil supply crisis.
It is possible to manufacture liquid fuels out of biomass and coal, but will a ramp up in production of these fuels prevent a total liquid fuel peak? Highly unlikely. For comparison, all the food grown in the world has an energy equivalency of about 10 20% of our liquid fuel consumption. Oil is the world’s most important resource, we’re not talking about toothpicks here. And when the ‘lifeblood of industrial society’ goes into decline there are some serious and detrimental spin-offs:
- Oil exporting countries are keeping more of their own oil as their populations grow and their economies demand more energy.
- Various groups are attacking the vulnerable infrastructure between oilfield and petrol pump for profit. These attacks may increase.
- So-called substitute technologies may depend on minerals mined and transported and manufactured with oil.
- The economic effects of peak oil will hamper our ability to mitigate the effects of oil’s decline. Who will be able to afford an expensive new piece of wonder technology when the economy is in decline?
Neither of the major parties want to talk about Peak Oil, because parties that talk about scary realities are less likely to be elected than parties that promote baseless optimism. Fortunately, ordinary New Zealanders are doing something about it, such as Transition Towns New Zealand. I have written two papers that explore this issue in greater depth with a New Zealand perspective, which I encourage you to read if you’re interested in finding out more about this topic.
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- Release: Environmental protection vital, not ‘onerous’The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...2 weeks ago
- Ferris – Three Strikes targets those ‘too brown to be white’The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt cuts doctors and nurses in hiring freezeCuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...2 weeks ago
- Fast-track submissions period must be extendedThe Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Progress on climate will be undone by GovtNew Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Dark day for Kiwi kids as a third of Govt cuts affect themNews that 1000 jobs at the Ministry of Education and Oranga Tamariki could go is devastating for future generations of New Zealanders. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Alarm as Government signals further blow to school lunchesMore essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...2 weeks ago
- Oranga Tamariki cuts commit tamariki to state abuseTe Pāti Māori is disgusted at the confirmation that hundreds are set to lose their jobs at Oranga Tamariki, and the disestablishment of the Treaty Response Unit. “This act of absolute carelessness and out of touch decision making is committing tamariki to state abuse.” Said Te Pāti Māori Oranga Tamariki ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Quick, submit – stop Govt’s dodgy approvals billThe Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...3 weeks ago
- Government throws coal on the climate crisis fireThe Government’s policy announced today to ease consenting for coal mining will have a lasting impact across generations. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Public transport costs to double as National looks at unaffordable roading project insteadCancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Cost of living in Auckland still not a priorityA laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...3 weeks ago
- Te Pāti Māori to visit Queensland to strengthen ties with Māori in AustraliaTe Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi, and Mema Paremata mō Tāmaki-Makaurau, Takutai Tarsh Kemp, will travel to the Gold Coast to strengthen ties with Māori in Australia next week (15-21 April). The visit, in the lead-up to the 9th Australian National Kapa haka Festival, will be an opportunity for both ...3 weeks ago
- Decision allows for housing growth in Western Bay of Plenty
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...13 hours ago - Speech to New Zealand China CouncilThank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...16 hours ago
- Modern insurance law will protect Kiwi householdsThe Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...1 day ago
- Government recommits to equal payThe coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...1 day ago
- Transforming how our children learn to readStructured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...1 day ago
- NZ not backing down in Canada dairy disputeTrade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...2 days ago
- Stronger oversight for our most vulnerable childrenThe rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...2 days ago
- Streamlining Building Consent ChangesThe Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...2 days ago
- Minister acknowledges passing of Sir Robert Martin (KNZM)New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...2 days ago
- Speech to New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Parliament – Annual Lecture: Challenges ...Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...2 days ago
- Accelerating airport security linesFrom today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...2 days ago
- Community hui to talk about kina barrensPeople with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...3 days ago
- Kiwi exporters win as NZ-EU FTA enters into forceKiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...3 days ago
- Mining resurgence a welcome signThere are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...3 days ago
- Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill passes first readingThe return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...3 days ago
- Government to boost public EV charging networkEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...3 days ago
- Residential Property Managers Bill to not progressThe coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...3 days ago
- Independent review into disability support servicesThe Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...4 days ago
- Justice Minister updates UN on law & order planJustice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...4 days ago
- Ending emergency housing motels in RotoruaThe Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...4 days ago
- Trade Minister travels to Riyadh, OECD, and DubaiTrade Minister Todd McClay heads overseas today for high-level trade talks in the Gulf region, and a key OECD meeting in Paris. Mr McClay will travel to Riyadh to meet with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). “New Zealand’s goods and services exports to the Gulf region ...4 days ago
- Education priorities focused on lifting achievementEducation Minister Erica Stanford has outlined six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system that sets Kiwi kids up for future success. “I’m putting ambition, achievement and outcomes at the heart of our education system. I want every child to be inspired and engaged in their learning so they ...4 days ago
- NZTA App first step towards digital driver licenceThe new NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) App is a secure ‘one stop shop’ to provide the services drivers need, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Digitising Government Minister Judith Collins say. “The NZTA App will enable an easier way for Kiwis to pay for Vehicle Registration and Road User Charges (RUC). ...4 days ago
- Supporting whānau out of emergency housingWhānau with tamariki growing up in emergency housing motels will be prioritised for social housing starting this week, says Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka. “Giving these whānau a better opportunity to build healthy stable lives for themselves and future generations is an essential part of the Government’s goal of reducing ...4 days ago
- Tribute to Dave O'SullivanRacing Minister Winston Peters has paid tribute to an icon of the industry with the recent passing of Dave O’Sullivan (OBE). “Our sympathies are with the O’Sullivan family with the sad news of Dave O’Sullivan’s recent passing,” Mr Peters says. “His contribution to racing, initially as a jockey and then ...5 days ago
- Speech – Eid al-FitrAssalaamu alaikum, greetings to you all. Eid Mubarak, everyone! I want to extend my warmest wishes to you and everyone celebrating this joyous occasion. It is a pleasure to be here. I have enjoyed Eid celebrations at Parliament before, but this is my first time joining you as the Minister ...5 days ago
- Government saves access to medicinesAssociate Health Minister David Seymour has announced Pharmac’s largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff. “Access to medicines is a crucial part of many Kiwis’ lives. We’ve committed to a budget allocation of $1.774 billion over four years so Kiwis are ...5 days ago
- Pharmac Chair appointedHon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...6 days ago
- Taking action on Fetal Alcohol Spectrum DisorderHundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says. “Every day, ...7 days ago
- New sports complex opens in KaikoheRegional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...7 days ago
- Diplomacy needed more than everForeign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges. “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...7 days ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address, Buttes New British Cemetery BelgiumAmbassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service. It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...1 week ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address – NZ National Service, Chunuk BairDistinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...1 week ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address – Dawn Service, Gallipoli, TürkiyeMai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia. Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...1 week ago
- PM announces changes to portfoliosPaul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...1 week ago
- New catch limits for unique fishery areasRecreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...1 week ago
- Minister welcomes hydrogen milestoneEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...1 week ago
- Urgent changes to system through first RMA Amendment BillThe coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...2 weeks ago
- Overseas decommissioning models consideredOverseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...2 weeks ago
- Release of North Island Severe Weather Event InquiryEmergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...2 weeks ago
- USP Council votes to bring controversial VC back to Fiji
Council members voted 21 to 4 in favour of Ahluwalia returning to the Laucala campus following a much-awaited meeting in Vanuatu this week. It comes as USP and its two unions — the Association of the University of the South Pacific Staff (AUSPS) and the Administration and Support Staff Union ...2 hours ago - Public health expert urges govt to focus on disease prevention
The government needs to step up in the wake of a report showing a third of Kiwis have unmet health needs, Professor Boyd Swinburn says. ...6 hours ago - Figures like Andrew Tate may help spread misogyny. But they’re amplifying – not causing – the ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicola Henry, Professor & Australian Research Council Future Fellow, Social and Global Studies Centre, RMIT University Shutterstock Following an emergency meeting of the National Cabinet this week, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced a raft of measures to tackle the problem ...6 hours ago
- Free speech debate back on as Victoria University expands diversity on panelA perceived right-wing bias and concerns about panellist diversity have pushed Victoria University to reformat its debate. ...7 hours ago
- Week in Politics: Polls, pay rises and a Green MP in troubleAnalysis - A poll showing the opposition is more popular than the government raises questions, politicians go through their 'trial by pay rise' and a Green MP loses her cool in the debating chamber. ...8 hours ago
- Māori win customary title over Tokomaru Bay on East Coast
The entire stretch of Tokomaru Bay on the East Coast will be subject to a joint customary marine title for two hapū, and extending up to four miles out to sea. A High Court judge has found the two groups, who during the case settled a dispute over boundaries for ...8 hours ago - Universal’s music is returning to TikTok, ending a spat that hurt fans more than anyoneSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Hall, Lecturer, Media & Cultural Studies, Edith Cowan University A longstanding feud between TikTok and Universal Music Group seems to have finally reached an end, with both parties signing a deal that will see Universal-backed music returned to the social media ...8 hours ago
- To tackle gendered violence, we also need to look at drugs, trauma and mental healthSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Siobhan O’Dean, Postdoctoral Research Associate, The Matilda Centre for Research in Mental Health and Substance Use, University of Sydney After several highly publicised alleged murders of women in Australia, the Albanese government this week pledged more than A$925 million over five years ...9 hours ago
- National raised $10.4m in donations in 2023Political parties have now fully disclosed the donations they received last year - with National getting more than double the cash of any other party. ...9 hours ago
- Don't 'mistake' Pacific leaders 'quietness' on AUKUS as support for NZ'...A Pacific regionalism expert has called out New Zealand's Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters for withholding information from the public on AUKUS military pact. ...9 hours ago
- Florist says Julie Anne Genter exchange was 'massive imbalance of power'The Wellington woman says she felt degraded and humiliated after being confronted by the Green MP. ...10 hours ago
- China’s new Moon mission is about to launch, and it’s a rare example of countries working togeth...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard de Grijs, Professor of Astrophysics, Macquarie University Bruno Scramgnon/Pexels All systems are “go” for tonight’s launch of China’s next step in a carefully planned lunar exploration program. Placed on top of a powerful Long March 5 rocket, the Chang’e 6 ...10 hours ago
- National returned $200,000 donation day after Newsroom storyNational returned a massive donation the day after a Newsroom story linked the donors to a property being investigated for operating unlawfully as a migrant workers’ hostel. The party’s 2023 donation filings, released on Friday, show it returned a $200,000 donation from Buen Holdings on August 23. That was the ...10 hours ago
- NZ slumps to 19th as RSF says press freedom threatened by global declinePacific Media Watch New Zealand has slumped to an unprecedented 19th place in the annual Reporters Without Borders World Press Freedom Index survey released today on World Press Freedom Day — May 3. This was a drop of six places from 13th last year when it slipped out of its ...10 hours ago
- Access to documents about Australia’s political history is fraught and inadequate. It needs to cha...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joshua Black, Political Historian and Administrator Officer, Australian Historical Association, Australian National University Australia has had its fair share of public record-keeping controversies in recent years. Some have been mere farce, as in the case of two formerly government-owned filing cabinets (containing ...11 hours ago
- Greens have 'historically bad' start to the year – political scientistThe party has had faced a challenging set of circumstances over the past five months, Lara Greaves says. ...11 hours ago
- HWPL Calls For Peace Amid Rising Tensions Between Israel And Iran
Heavenly Culture, World Peace, Restoration of Light (HWPL), a United Nations-affiliated organization dedicated to fostering peace through civilian-led initiatives, has issued a statement in response to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. ...12 hours ago - The Friday Poem: ‘Mātou’ by Tessa Keenan
A poem by Tessa Keenan, from AUP New Poets 10. Mātou These days we are a photograph; one of a farm strewn with cows that used to be bright harakeke or swamp. The kids point at it and say the sun sits behind a smudge (left by someone at Christmas); ...12 hours ago - The Unity Books bestseller chart for the week ending May 3The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington. AUCKLAND 1 Small Things Like These by Claire Keegan (Faber & Faber, $25) The masterful Irish writer ...12 hours ago
- Marriages, Civil Unions, And Divorces: Year Ended Dec 2023Marriage and civil union statistics record the number of marriages and civil unions registered in New Zealand each year, and divorce statistics record the number of divorces granted in New Zealand each year. Key facts Marriages and civil unions In ...12 hours ago
- Marriages, Civil Unions, And Divorces: Year Ended December 2023Marriage and civil union statistics record the number of marriages and civil unions registered in New Zealand each year, and divorce statistics record the number of divorces granted in New Zealand each year. ...12 hours ago
- How effective are domestic violence advertising campaigns for preventing violence against women?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Waller, Associate Professor, University of Technology Sydney shutterstock Cristina RasoBoluda/Shutterstock Domestic violence is a significant personal, community and social issue attracting much attention. After several recent horrific cases, media discussion, calls for a royal commission to end the violence and ...12 hours ago
- Taiwan is experiencing millions of cyberattacks every day. The world should be paying attentionSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lennon Y.C. Chang, Associate Professor of Cyber Risk and Policy, Deakin University Taiwan stands out as a beacon of democracy, innovation and resilience in an increasingly autocratic region. But this is under growing threat. In recent years, China has used a variety ...12 hours ago
- ‘There was life in the old girl yet’: Dame Susan Devoy on taking reality TV by stormIn this excerpt from her new memoir, Dame Susan Devoy remembers her turn as star contestant on the 2022 season of Celebrity Treasure Island. The most anxious time of every day was pre-elimination, when you knew this could be your final day on the show. I felt such contradictory emotions, ...13 hours ago
- Auditor-General criticises way University of Waikato contracted Steven JoyceJohn Ryan says the University of Waikato did not invite multiple contractors and reached out to the former finance minister directly. ...13 hours ago
- 'Not my first legal rodeo' – Winston Peters on defamation threatForeign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says he will not be cowed by threats of legal action, having received a legal letter from Bob Carr. ...14 hours ago
- Can the Green Party’s holy mission survive its fallible disciples?A week that began in triumph ended in an all-too-familiar disaster for the Green Party. Duncan Greive asks if there’s something in the mission that breaks its best and brightest. A long, strange week for the Green party began with a fantastic poll result. On one level this is hardly ...15 hours ago
- Vanuatu’s Kalsakau resigns, calls for delay on constitutional referendumBy Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific journalist Vanuatu’s former prime minister and opposition MP Ishmael Kalsakau has stepped down — just two days after he confirmed he was the rightful opposition leader. Kalsakau, MP for Port Vila, confirmed to ABC’s Pacific Beat, and the Vanuatu Daily Post on Thursday that he ...15 hours ago
- Winston Peters gives China speech amid legal drama and AUKUS questionsThe Foreign Minister spoke about the NZ-China relationship amid lingering questions about the AUKUS security alliance . ...15 hours ago
- Gone By Lunchtime: Mojo machine misfires, honeymoon cancelledWhat’s to blame for the coalition’s choppy start? Six months in, and the mojo meter is in the doldrums. A new poll would put National out of power and sees its leader, Chris Luxon, sliding in popularity. How much is it about policy, how much coalition management and a perception ...15 hours ago
- The Waitangi Tribunal’s latest report is about far more than just child protectionThe striking report goes far beyond the proposed repeal of the Oranga Tamariki Act’s Treaty of Waitangi provision, and its impact should be felt far beyond the unique circumstances of the claim it addresses. Earlier this week, the Waitangi Tribunal released an interim report on the government’s proposed repeal of ...16 hours ago
- Live Winston Peters gives China speech amid legal drama and AUKUS questionsThe Foreign Minister was speaking at the New Zealand China Council while questions linger about the AUKUS security alliance . ...16 hours ago
- 'We weren't informed': Apprentice working on school unaware of asbestosThe Education Ministry is promising to do more about asbestos problems in schools, with tighter controls over detection and removal. ...17 hours ago
- New Treasury Paper On The Productivity SlowdownThe world has been experiencing a productivity slowdown, from which New Zealand has not been exempt. COVID-19 temporarily boosted labour productivity, but more recently, productivity has retreated. The overall trend since 2007 has been one of slow productivity ...17 hours ago
- The prison slushy story is back, baby, and it’s less nutritious than everWhat’s more wasteful than spending $315k on syrup and machine maintenance? Trying to drum up a controversy about it. Cast your mind back to the pre-pandemic idylls of 2019. A “rat” was a disgusting rodent and not a self-administered plague test; the sixth Labour government was in power; and the ...17 hours ago
- AI can now generate entire songs on demand. What does this mean for music as we know it?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Oliver Bown, Associate Professor, UNSW Sydney PeamDesign / Shutterstock In March, we saw the launch of a “ChatGPT for music” called Suno, which uses generative AI to produce realistic songs on demand from short text prompts. A few weeks later, a ...17 hours ago
- Domestic violence disclosure schemes may not improve safety for victim-survivors of intimate partner...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Fitz-Gibbon, Professor of Social Sciences, Faculty of Arts, Monash University, Monash University Ken stocker/Shutterstock In the wake of numerous killings of women allegedly by men’s violence in 2024, thousands of Australians have joined rallies across the country to demand action ...17 hours ago
- Clearing the elective surgery backlog will take more than one budget. It’ll need major reformSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Henry Cutler, Professor and Director, Macquarie University Centre for the Health Economy, Macquarie University Oleg Ivanov IL/Shutterstock Waiting times for public hospital elective surgery have been in the news ahead of this year’s federal budget. That’s the type of non-emergency surgery ...17 hours ago
- Why is cancer called cancer? We need to go back to Greco-Roman times for the answerSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Konstantine Panegyres, McKenzie Postdoctoral Fellow, Historical and Philosophical Studies, The University of Melbourne Amna Artist/Shutterstock One of the earliest descriptions of someone with cancer comes from the fourth century BC. Satyrus, tyrant of the city of Heracleia on the Black Sea, ...17 hours ago
- Electric vehicles will start to cut emissions and improve air quality in our cities – but only onc...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Rose, Professor of Sustainable Future Transport, University of Sydney LanaElcova/Shutterstock Electric vehicles are often seen as the panacea to cutting emissions – and air pollution – from transport. Is this view correct? Yes – but only once uptake accelerates. Despite the ...17 hours ago
- 4 things our schools should do now to help prevent gender-based violenceSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Giselle Natassia Woodley, Researcher and Phd Candidate, Edith Cowan University There is widespread agreement Australia needs to do better when it comes to gender-based violence. Anger and frustration at the numbers of women being killed saw national rallies over the weekend and ...17 hours ago
- Becoming a landlord while still renting? ‘Rentvesting’ promises a foot on the property ladder, b...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Graham, Lecturer in Economics, University of Sydney Mark and Anna Photography/Shutterstock As home ownership moves further out of reach for many Australians, “rentvesting” is being touted as a lifesaver. Rentvesting is the practice of renting one property to live ...17 hours ago
- Season two of Heartbreak High makes diversity feel ‘banal’. This is its strengthSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sukhmani Khorana, Associate Professor, Faculty of Arts, Design and Architecture, UNSW Sydney Netflix The new season of Heartbreak High is garnering mixed reviews. Critics are writing about the racy story lines, comparing it to other coming-of-age series about teenage relationships and ...17 hours ago
- Winston Peters receives legal letter from Bob Carr after defamation threatBob Carr has confirmed his intention to take legal action against the NZ First leader. ...17 hours ago
- Legal action and bullying allegations: Peters and Genter knock government agenda off its perchBob Carr intends to launch legal action against Winston Peters and Julie Anne Genter is facing a second allegation of bullying. Both sucked the air out of an announcement on education, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in ...18 hours ago
- New law looks to shake up insuranceThe Minister for Commerce and Consumer Affairs says insurance laws are too complicated and change is long overdue. ...18 hours ago
- Winston Peters' comments about former Australian minister 'unstatesmanlike' – L...David Parker says he has never heard a current minister speak about a senior, retired politician from another country in such a way. ...18 hours ago
- Where is she now? Sally ClarkIn 1995, Sally Clark went out on her own in a bold and unorthodox attempt to join an illustrious group of equestrian riders conquering the world. In the days of glovebox road maps, brick cell phones, and the hit song How Bizarre, Clark refused to follow Sir Mark Todd, Blyth ...18 hours ago
- Despite a tenfold increase in ADHD prescriptions, too many New Zealanders are still going withoutSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben Beaglehole, Senior Lecturer, Department of Psychological Medicine, University of Otago niphon/Getty Images The number of people accessing medication for attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in Aotearoa New Zealand increased significantly between 2006 and 2022. But the disorder is still under-diagnosed and ...19 hours ago
- Pay equity taskforce disbanded, 'no longer required' – MinisterThe government is being accused of "misdirected priorities" after it disestablished the pay equity taskforce. ...20 hours ago
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you realise it’s bad but then you read these papers and realise it’s much much worse.
captcha: population fell…
Scared the shit out of me. I hadn’t considered what would happen to New Zealand’s access to oil and alternative techs as peak oil approaches – being small and distant, we’re one of the first in line to be cut off.
Oh man – does this mean I have to sell my Monaro???
I’m going to find a quiet island and grow turnips. People who wish to share are welcome to apply. Must have entertaining skills and combat training.
In all seriousness though, if Hydrogen Fuel Cells can’t be developed in a hurry, then we’re in trouble. They are the only technology on the horizon that has the capacity or potential to take a real bite out of oil consumption.
Problems are manifest – the cost of the units, and difficulty of setting up infrastructure. Where they can really work, though, is through decentralised power generation. Each community, suburb or town can have their own, augmented with renewables, and the power could power town cars and so on. It’s all very utopian at this stage though, I’m first to admit.
Suggest interested parties read The End Of Oil by Paul Roberts (I’ll have a copy on the island) – it’s depressing, but gives some hope. As Mr Tegg mentions, the question is when to act, and with what degree of effort. We’ve got to get to a lower level of oil consumption per capita – the question is whether we ease down to it with increased cost now, or crash down from a great height.
Roberts makes many other salient points – e.g. the energy sector has made a multi-trillion dollar investment in the hydrocarbon infrastructure extant today – and will fight to protect it.
Anyway, without fuel cells, we’re probably hoping for a silver bullet – fusion is closer, what with the Large Hadron Collider and CERN getting amongst it – but it’s still a long way away yet…
P.S. robinsod, no, be a capitalist – if you can pay for it, it’s yours (and externalities, well, they’re…external 🙂 )
“Oh man – does this mean I have to sell my Monaro???”
Certainly not. We just need to invade Iran (purely to liberate them from the mullahs and save ourselves from dhimmitude). pronto.
But I really, really like that car…
Hey ‘Sod – I had an HK Holden for years, back in my hellraising youth. What a brute of a thing!
Now days I ride a bike. Because I’ve long been convinced that the future portrayed my Tegg and others is on its way…
I think it would be fairly obvious that NZ would be one of the first nations in the world to lose access to imported oil. We’re a fair distance away and there’s a lot of ocean in between where an oil ship can go missing. We, quite simply, have no way to protect that oil shipment especially if we don’t have access to any oil.
The best we can do is to find our own reserves and start planning for their frugal use minus any foreign ownership/control and we definately shouldn’t be thinking of exporting them.
I’ve been aware of peak oil for some time, and although my position apropos the consequences has moderated somewhat over time (as these things typically do), I still see it as being of obvious critical importance. However I’m still not seeing anyone but the Greens and maybe the Maori Party even recognising the problem, let alone working to fix it, as is absolutely required. If findings like those in the Hirsch Report are paralleled in NZ (and I can’t see why not), then we’re fairly uncontroversially in the shit. The next 10-20 years will almost certainly bring us some big problems, and the concerted effort towards solutions need to start now. Labour and National both ignore this as they’re locked in a battle to win at all costs (I blame this particular mental disability on our national obsession with rugby – it’s kinda a “go the blue/red team” thing), when they should really be focusing on doing the right thing for the country (sorry, Tui moment there…) And they’ve both been warned about this for years.
Damn frustrating, really. But what can practically be done?
Damn frustrating, really. But what can practically be done?
Vote Green?
“I’m going to find a quiet island and grow turnips.”
May I suggest an atoll in the middle of the Pacific Ocean? 🙂
May I suggest an atoll in the middle of the Pacific Ocean?
Classic!
But that means you either believe in climate change and sea levels rising and want me to drown, or you don’t, and have very kindly suggested a place where I can relax in the tropics – which is it? 😉
Draco TB – I’m all for keeping our oil – look at Norway and how they did it! However, all that will do is give us an extended plateau during which to act – as K1 points out, there ain’t much acting!
K1, as an optimist, I see the pace picking up alomst exponentially – a short few years ago the concept of peak oil (and climate change, they sort of go hand in hand) were met with ridicule and derision as a rule. The inverse is true now – and so the appetite for change is growing apiece.
Can I recommend the following:
“In this document, the Swedish Commission on Oil Independence propose a number of far-reaching, concrete measures that can end our dependence on oil by the year 2020 and tangibly reduce our use of oil products.”
http://www.sweden.gov.se/sb/d/574/a/67096
Pablo have you read the document fully although they do make the comment as you state they are talking of reducing their dependance on oil not ending it.
• Through more efficient use of fuel and new fuels, consumption of oil in road transport
shall be reduced by 40-50 per cent.
• In principle no oil shall be used for heating residential and commercial buildings
• Industry shall reduce its consumption of oil by 25-40 per cent
The ongoing issues with the Peakies is that they continue to underestimate the resource, underestimate engineering capability, underestimate thechnology improvements and also ignore substitution. They also tend to ignore their false prophesies of the past and the number of significant revisions they have had to undertake of the resource base and the peak date.
insider. All those issues are addressed in simon’s papers. did you read them or are you speaking from a position of ignorance?
of course there will be improvements in tech and there are substitutes but neither can address the problem on the scale we’re talking about.