Landslide sliding away

Written By: - Date published: 11:53 am, November 15th, 2007 - 16 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

The Roy Morgan poll results have been included in the latest rolling poll from Molesworth and Featherston and shows that National – despite John Key’s confident prediction of a landslide victory (The Press, 9 Jun 2007) – is going to have to lift its game if it wants to present itself as a viable alternative. Current numbers show a tight fight. From this week’s M&F [offline]:

One new poll into the data this week, from Roy Morgan, showing the gap between the two big parties closing dramatically to about 5 percentage points. Of course the change in our rolling poll is muted, but the trend is still there & this week the gap narrows to just a tick over 10 points. The shift in seat distribution, though slight, is very significant however leading to an effective 61-61 hung Parliament between left and right. The numbers are (assuming sitting leaders & but not Phillip Field or Gordon Copeland & are returned and the Maori Party holds its four constituency seats):

Percent, seats
National: 47.84, 59
Labour: 37.61, 47
Greens: 7.01, 9
NZ First: 2.65, 0
Maori Party: 2.21, 4
United Future: 0.99, 1
Act: 0.67, 1
Progressives: 0.19, 1

It is a 122 seat Parliament with overhang seats for the Maori Party and Jim Anderton & significantly both on the left of the spectrum. National can no longer govern with the support of Act and United Future alone (61 seats). Labour, Jim Anderton, the Greens and the Maori Party also total 61. At that point it would be down to some very fine negotiating skills and who blinked first. A very volatile Parliament indeed.

The Nats haven’t wanted to proclaim it too loudly but we all know those massive poll leads had them rubbing their hands in glee that they would be a majority government and could rule without reference to other parties. These results show that they have a lot of work to do to make that happen. So plan B is that they are going to have to find some more “like minds”. Will Bob roll over for Winston in Tauranga? Will they present a tame tax package to allow room for ACT? Will they invite the Maori party to their Xmas drinks?

16 comments on “Landslide sliding away ”

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  1. Sam Dixon 1
    15 November 2007 at 12:11 pm

    That rolling average poll includes Colmar Brunton, so its value is undermined right away. Colmar Brunton has trouble counting all its toes let alone conducting a useful poll.

    It is unlikely that Naitonal will poll so high as 47.84% and even a 1% shift from National to the left from this poll puts the advantage firmly to the Left.

    Add to that the fact that the Maori Party will almost certianly take more than 4 seats: the overhang will grow and the advantage will be even more left.

  2. unaha-closp 2
    15 November 2007 at 1:16 pm

    I agree with Sam, the overhang will grow and a minority of votes will elect a majority of parliament.

  3. TomS 3
    15 November 2007 at 1:40 pm

    I agree. The chances are the National vote will fall to a still very respectable 42-44% and Labour will claw back to its rock solid base of around 40-41%

    The big story will be keeping the Greens over the 5% threshold, and I suspect that is another reason why National is desperate to stop the EFB – they may want “unconnected third parties” to wage a covert campaign against the Greens (Family First spending vast sums of mysteriously acquired money to get rid of the Greens over over Section 59 anyone?).

    If the Greens get over the threshold its goodnight nurse to National next campaign, assuming Labour can chip even 2% from the Nats.

  4. Insolent Prick 4
    15 November 2007 at 1:54 pm

    What a deluded fantasy-world the Standard lives in. Just put your fingers in your ears and ignore the shouts of derision from everybody over the most appalling piece of self-serving, vulgar, and hollow legislation introduced in the last hundred years, and stake your chances on one poll, taken two weeks ago!

    Good luck believing you’re going to win the next election when the entire media portray Labour as the thieving, lying, corrupt and desperate bunch that they are.

  5. Tane 5
    15 November 2007 at 2:00 pm

    Prick, the M&F figures are a rolling poll of polls. You’re a punter mate.

    But anything to bring the topic back to the EFB and the ‘thieving, lying, corrupt and desperate’ Labour Party eh?

  6. ak 6
    15 November 2007 at 2:16 pm

    Come on Pricko, you’re not even trying now. Don’t blame you but: as we see, 100% pure spleen-venting and fearmongering has only got you dropping in the polls.

    Big decision coming up lad: “One law for all” or sniff around Tariana again? Smart money says Big Money will order you back to the gutter.

    Keep up the Hollow thing – that’s gold, Prick.

  7. Robert owen 7
    15 November 2007 at 3:13 pm

    I think the attack strategy will to try and get the Greens under 5% As we know Smith has already stated this

    “Let me put it another way. If we can convince just 1 in 20 of those Green voters that National is a better bet than the Greens, that alone would be enough, all other things being equal, for National to win in 2008”

    http://blog.greens.org.nz/index.php/2006/05/15/national-out-to-poach-green-vote/

    A high risk strategy though . All or nothing. I think they(the Greens0 should prepare for some dirt coming their way
    Maybe Jim should stand as a Greenie to guarantee a seat

  8. the sprout 8
    15 November 2007 at 3:14 pm

    yes i love it when IP does that clever hollow Labour thing. it’s convinced me – i don’t think National are venal and vacuous at all.

  9. Insolent Prick 9
    15 November 2007 at 3:21 pm

    I think this naivete from the Left that their polling fortunes are suddenly going to improve during the most disgraceful act of self-servility–writing constitutional law to suit yourself at the expense of everybody else–is just delightful.

    But still very hollow.

  10. Nih 10
    15 November 2007 at 3:26 pm

    the M&F figures are a rolling poll of polls.

    That’s a meta-poll.

    I know, I didn’t think anyone would bother naming something like that either. It sets a precedent though. With as many people manning multiple right-wing accounts on this blog as there are, we can call them meta-nats.

  11. the sprout 11
    15 November 2007 at 3:28 pm

    ooh ooh do it again Impotent Prick.
    i keep thinking it isn’t National who are the Hollow Men.

  12. gobsmacked 12
    15 November 2007 at 4:14 pm

    The point is not that the polls are great for the left. It’s that showing anything less than the mythical National landslide will lead to the questions John Key doesn’t want his voters to think about. It won’t happen until next year, when the journos wake up after the summer snooze, but it is inevitable.

    Maori Party? Greens? All options open, is the official Nat line. But that undermines their core message – that Helen is the wicked witch.

    Because at some point even the slowest Welly hack is going to work out the basic flaw in logic there. If Clark is beyond the pale, where are the parties beyond Clark?

    He may not want to answer that, but you can bet National’s supporters will – and loudly. Should be fun to watch.

  13. Robinsod 13
    15 November 2007 at 4:24 pm

    Sprout – you mean it’s National who are the hollow men?! Does this mean Insolent Punter has been lying to me again?

  14. the sprout 14
    15 November 2007 at 4:37 pm

    i’m afraid so Robinsod. or maybe the medication is just getting him confused as well as Impotent. hardly surprising on those doses.

    nice points gobsmacked. and unless Key raises his game enormously, more than he appears capable of doing, things will only get worse for National. i guess you certainly couldn’t accuse Key’s performance of peaking too early. or peaking at all, for that matter.

    Maori party option open? you think is open minded enough to wear this?

  15. Lee C 15
    15 November 2007 at 8:04 pm

    God I like Hare Harewera!
    who else will bet me a crate of Tui on this one then?

    I think that Labour will ‘lose’ the next election.
    I think the media’s growing anti-labour stance will be one of the deciding factors in it.
    Another will be the rise of a split in the Labour party over who is going to succeed Helen Clark.
    And a lapse of voter confidence as a result.
    I think there will be a solid gain for Maori from Labour, Greens will gain – again to Labour’s cost.
    Winston – goneburger
    Hide – will rise again!
    Anderton same nursing home as Winston.
    I think that the Maori Party will align with the National Party and Helen Clark will resign within 14 months of the new Parliament starting.

    I liked the ‘smiling snake’ thing – I could imagine Key smile as he heard it.Not as good as ‘the smiling assassin’ from that comedy thing on the tele, but funny.

  16. gobsmacked 16
    15 November 2007 at 8:30 pm

    “I think that the Maori Party will align with the National Party”

    Lee, even if that is the initial deal, how can it last? The waka-jumping law has gone, so the chances of all 4 (5, 6, 7?) electorate MPs sticking to that deal are zero. Their constituents will see to that. They’re not list MPs, and the difference is crucial.

    What National/ACT policies will these MPs want to take back to their electorates, and say they’re going to vote for?

    The only way the Maori Party MPs will swallow a right-wing programme is if there’s a big trade-off, like repeal of seabed & foreshore. Then all Key has to do is sell that one to the people in talkback land who voted him in …

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