Latest Newshub/Reid Research poll – Labour cruising, National floundering

137 comments on “Latest Newshub/Reid Research poll – Labour cruising, National floundering ”

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1. Chris T 1

   27 September 2020 at 6:34 pm

   The old Nat's look a bit screwed.

   Mind you. So does Winston again.

   Seymour will be smiling his arse off

   Greens look like they will go back to being pointless again.

   Ardern might as well get Clarke to get the champagne in now, while it might be on special
   • Chris 1.1

     27 September 2020 at 10:46 pm

     Yes, the old old nats do look a bit screwed, but there's still time for collins to go completely ballistic and guarantee getting totally screwed.
2. millsy 2

   27 September 2020 at 6:47 pm

   We shouldn't get carried away. The most important poll is in 3 weeks time.
   • Chris T 2.1

     27 September 2020 at 6:52 pm

     Surprised me the other day how many early vote now.

     Forgive me if wrong, but from memory it is actually something like 60%
     • Graeme 2.1.1

       27 September 2020 at 7:18 pm

       I'd expect it to be even greater this time, everyone's pretty much had enough and wish it'd be over with. Wouldn't be surprised if there isn't queues the day advance voting opens and if 50% of the vote is cast in the first week.
     • lprent 2.1.2

       27 September 2020 at 9:52 pm

       Was about half last time. They are expecting 2/3 this time. I reckon 80% plus myself.

       Why take the risk?

       BBesides they have been underestimating the uptake over 5 elections so far – why would they be right this time?
       • Craig H 2.1.2.1

         28 September 2020 at 4:37 pm

         Consistently wrong so we can predict the takeup by taking into account how predictably wrong they are?
   • halfcrown 2.2

     27 September 2020 at 7:43 pm

     +1
3. Shanreagh 3

   27 September 2020 at 6:52 pm

   Don't count your chickens springs to mind……still got a way to go. Is Labour trending down in this poll looks like 10%? Has it been trending down in earlier polls as well? I think extending the election out as far as it was may turn out to be a mistake and we may snatch ……whatever. Hope not. Hope that ACT do not get too many more unless it is at National's expense.
   • Chris T 3.1

     27 September 2020 at 6:55 pm

     TBF I think Ardern had to extend it out.

     If they kept the date with covid they would have been accused of taking advantage of it.
   • Andre 3.2

     27 September 2020 at 6:57 pm

     Has it been trending down in earlier polls as well?

     Make what you will of the data.

     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election
4. McFlock 4

   27 September 2020 at 6:55 pm

   @ Shanreagh (missed reply button)

   Yep, don’t count the chickens yet.

   Winston's plugging around, looking for the hot wire that will spark up his party again. ⚡ZAP!⚡ NZ1 back on 6% and Labour play them off against the Greens.

   Dude has come back from the dead more times than Dracula in the Hammer Horrors. Never write him off until the results have been counted.
   • Andre 4.1

     27 September 2020 at 7:01 pm

     Ahem. Don't count his crypt closed until the results have been counted, recounted, certified and the writ returned. Even then he'll rise from the soft dank earth for the next election.
     • PsyclingLeft.Always 4.1.1

       27 September 2020 at 8:14 pm

       undead undead undead………

       Of course theres the Daylight…oh, and the Mirrors : )
       • swordfish 4.1.1.1

         28 September 2020 at 3:17 pm

         Fantastic single … would occasionally hear it's post-punk (slightly gothic / slightly Kraftwerk) tones emanating from my older Brother's bedroom c 1981. Hint of Dada, whiff of Nosferatu, Dub-influenced feedback & echo effects. Always liked it.

         Then again, it did, tragically, play a role in inspiring the rather embarrassing teenage Goth movement … which is a tad unfortunate … deeply depressed, self-involved ex-boarding school creatures obsessed with the morbid & the macabre … still, can’t have everything, I guess.
         • PsyclingLeft.Always 4.1.1.1.1

           28 September 2020 at 4:48 pm

           Well there's always a disturbing Teenage Movement : ) I randomly found that clip years ago when looking for an obscure Fall song I'd heard ….so down the youtube rabbit hole….an hour plus : ) later.
   • Graeme 4.2

     27 September 2020 at 7:13 pm

     I'd give him way more than the counting, he took 6 months in 1978/79, and 3 years between 2008 and 2011.

     NZF's current polling is not that out of line from previous elections where they've scraped in. Not dead yet….
   • greywarshark 4.3

     27 September 2020 at 8:26 pm

     Lol McFlock. That Zap sounds good, if you find where it is in good quantities and to spare I could do with some.
5. AB 5

   27 September 2020 at 7:04 pm

   One positive with the ACT support is that they will now get the number of seats their party vote actually entitles them to, not one more than that entitlement via the Epsom rort.

   The other is that we will have fun seeing what sort of reality-challenged oddballs follow Seymour into the house.
   • Chris T 5.1

     27 September 2020 at 7:12 pm

     "what sort of reality-challenged oddballs follow Seymour into the house."

     

     Was actually thinking that the other day. Never heard of other ACT polys
     • Andre 5.1.1

       27 September 2020 at 7:18 pm

       https://www.act.org.nz/candidates

       Go nuts. Enjoy.

       Or not.
       • woodart 5.1.1.1

         27 September 2020 at 7:50 pm

         three in the top nine act candidates are gun owners, who think that fact is important enough to mention in their five line bio's. not much mention of charity work ,, volunteering etc.
         • Chris T 5.1.1.1.1

           27 September 2020 at 8:10 pm

           "three in the top nine act candidates are gun owners,"

           Without derailing the topic, do you think there are no Labour or Nat MPs who are gun owners?

           Wouldn't surprise me (though I don’t know} if Ardern's partner is, given his fishing and outdoory shows

           What is it you disagree with for owning a gun?
           • Andre 5.1.1.1.1.1

             27 September 2020 at 8:14 pm

             It's more the fact that they see fit to put it in their bio that provokes my interest. And what that says about who they are trying to appeal to.
             • woodart …

               27 September 2020 at 10:01 pm

               that was my point andre. when you have a five line bio to influence voters, you make your intentions clear. obviously christy hasnt thought that through.
               • Chris T …

                 27 September 2020 at 10:14 pm

                 "three in the top nine act candidates are gun owners,"

                 Apologies, but you said 3 of the top 9 bios says they are gun owners.

                 I actually bothered to look at Andre’s link and there are no three in the top nine saying they are gun owners.

                 I was that bored I looked,
                 • Chris T …

                   27 September 2020 at 10:15 pm

                   There is the gun lobby woman, but that is about it
                 • Incognito …

                   27 September 2020 at 10:36 pm

                   Oh, it is even better (or worse, depending on your view) than what woodart said:

                   You may have seen the announcement yesterday of ACT's first 49 candidates for this year's election. I wanted you to know that we are standing at least eight licenced firearms owners, with more candidates to be announced soon.

                   David Seymour, 27th May 2020

                   https://nzguns.co.nz/campfire/act-stands-with-licenced-firearms-owners-at-election/

                   That would make the “three in the top nine act candidates [who] are gun owners”:

                   Nicole McKee

                   James McDowall

                   Toni Severin

                   You are not very good at finding out stuff that you actually don’t want to find out, are you? In other words, you’re bored and wasting our time, which I find excruciatingly boring.
                   • Chris T …

                     27 September 2020 at 10:55 pm

                     I am still trying to work out why it is so bad to be a gun owner given how many there are in NZ
                   • Chris T …

                     27 September 2020 at 10:56 pm

                     I mean seriously. Incognito. Do you think no Labour MPs own guns?
                   • McFlock …

                     27 September 2020 at 11:02 pm

                     You like misreading bios, Chris. How many Labour candidates think their firearms ownership is important enough to include in their bios?
                   • Chris T …

                     27 September 2020 at 11:18 pm

                     ..
                   • Chris T …

                     27 September 2020 at 11:33 pm

                     Have seen it now.

                     Bit weirdoey tbf

                     But the McDowall one doesn’t say he is a gun owner

                     Doesn’t change it is a bit nutty brigade
                   • Incognito []

                     27 September 2020 at 11:49 pm

                     I was just in the middle of writing a Moderation note for you and parking you out of the way for a month. WTF do you think it means when McDowall states this in his Bio:

                     He has led the development of ACT’s Firearm Policy in the wake of the Government’s 2019 Arms Amendment Act.

                     And indeed, he is a firearm owner.

                     So, woodart was pretty correct and you should stop digging your hole, if I were you; it is just about ready.
                   • Chris T …

                     27 September 2020 at 11:58 pm

                     It doesn't matter,

                     I think we can all agree ACT are weirdos, apart from Seymour.

                     It is not worth getting pedantic.
                   • Incognito []

                     28 September 2020 at 12:00 am

                     Wise move.
                   • Chris T …

                     28 September 2020 at 12:02 am

                     So I have learnt
                   • Incognito []

                     28 September 2020 at 9:49 am

                     Slow learner. You were literally only seconds away from being parked away, as I said.
               • McFlock …

                 27 September 2020 at 10:31 pm

                 Three prioritise firearms enough to mention: Severin (as owner), McKee (as shooter and importer), McDowall (as their firearms policy writer).

                 So yeah, ACT love guns. I wonder if anyone took a trip to the US to get NRA funding, like the Aussie tools did?
         • gsays 5.1.1.1.2

           27 September 2020 at 8:21 pm

           Strange, I would take a gun owner over any more landlords in parliament…
           • Andre 5.1.1.1.2.1

             27 September 2020 at 8:27 pm

             How do you feel about gun-owning landlords?
             • gsays …

               27 September 2020 at 8:36 pm

               Heh, they probably don't tie up much of the Tenancy Tribunal's time…
       • Draco T Bastard 5.1.1.2

         27 September 2020 at 11:10 pm

         After starting work as an engineer, the phone rang and David moved to Canada where he worked as a policy analyst for a think tank. During this time he appeared on almost every Canadian media outlet on topics from taxes to taxi regulations.

         After returning to New Zealand in 2011, David advised John Banks on the initial policy development for Partnership (or charter) Schools, before the phone rang again for another job in Canada with Reform Party founder Preston Manning.

         This is what you call entitlement.

         He started his life knowing the right people and has been on the gravy train ever since.
   • greywarshark 5.2

     27 September 2020 at 8:31 pm

     Always look on the bright side of life. Why don't we adopt it as the unofficial anthem of the lefties on The Standard?

     Always Look On The Bright Side Of Life (The Unofficial England Football Anthem) – Monty Python
6. ScottGN 6

   27 September 2020 at 7:17 pm

   Three weeks to actual polling day but less than a week now until the start of advance voting.

   The Electoral Commission thinks 60% of us will vote early this year.

   Polls have been predicting a Labour majority for six months. Fighting against that is hard and time is running out for National to try and change the narrative, and they’ve played their so-called trump card, tax cuts, and it hasn’t worked. The absolute fiasco of the alternative budget probably hasn’t filtered right through to the voting public yet either.

   There is nothing Collins can do now to get voters to like her (and that includes crocodile tears with farmers like she did last week). Brownlee has had to be hidden in a cupboard somewhere. Some of the more loopy MPs are getting the wrong headlines. There’s a real danger that another 5%+ of their voters could peel off to other parties by the time the election is done. Or maybe just stay home.
   • woodart 6.1

     27 September 2020 at 7:52 pm

     yes, think a lot of farmers will do something else on voting day, probably go to their beach house.
     • aj 6.1.1

       27 September 2020 at 8:31 pm

       Farmer friend 70+ is voting labour this time, hates unions, never voted left strong>anything before in his life. Not only impressed with Adern but thinks Robertson and Hipkins have stepped up.
       • Ad 6.1.1.1

         27 September 2020 at 8:35 pm

         🙂 going to be a good night.
       • Sacha 6.1.1.2

         27 September 2020 at 9:40 pm

         Reassuring when people value competence. Tough years ahead to get through.
       • Enough is Enough 6.1.1.3

         28 September 2020 at 11:19 am

         Farmer parents who pay National subs will be voting Labour this time as well. Their motivation is to give Labout an absolute majority so that they don't have to rely on the Greens.
7. observer 7

   27 September 2020 at 7:57 pm

   Some patterns are so clear that they are spin-proof:

   1) Swing voters have given up on National. There is no denying that now. Worse still, Collins was put there to shore up the base – and ACT's rise shows she has failed.

   2) The Greens and NZF are 2 totally different cases, and commentators who lump them together miss the point. The Winston vote is gone, and the Greens' support endures, because the latter are part of a global movement with deep roots, not some short-term tactical band-aid (amazingly, this is still not understood by pundits who only think in terms of Leader-Parties like Peters, Dunne, Anderton etc).

   3) People who are "soft" Labour (ex-Key voters) might be tempted by a centre party if there was one (see 2002), but there isn't, so they realize it's Jacinda or Judith, no avoiding that choice, no fences to sit on. So Labour's vote holds up. Where's it going to go?

   4) The David Icke fan club … nothing. Many voters are conservative (as in any democracy), but few Kiwis are fringe fruit loops. Thank you, NZ.
   • froggleblocks 7.1

     27 September 2020 at 9:00 pm

     3) People who are "soft" Labour (ex-Key voters) might be tempted by a centre party if there was one (see 2002),

     TOP. They're just not polling high enough and without a 'worm turning' debate performance – because they've been locked out of the debates – they're not likely to get the publicity they need to break 5%.
     • observer 7.1.1

       27 September 2020 at 9:03 pm

       To be fair, they did get plenty of publicity in the 2017 campaign. Sadly, voters did not find constant abuse by Sean Plunket very attractive.
     • Sacha 7.1.2

       27 September 2020 at 9:42 pm

       To voters, do Top seem more like United Future or Social Credit?
       • FAB mouse 7.1.2.1

         28 September 2020 at 10:01 am

         I'd say more like Social Credit as they have policies as a raison etre but the voters assume they don't understand the TOP policies so give them a miss. United Future stood for beige which they did understand.
       • Andre 7.1.2.2

         28 September 2020 at 11:23 am

         Neither.

         TOP is a never-was-nor-will-be. United Future and Social Credit are has-beens.
   • weka 7.2

     27 September 2020 at 10:31 pm

     I'm really curious what's collapsed the NZF vote. Hope we get some research on that at some point. I suspect a combination of things: Labour's handling of the covid response (and taking care of elderly in the process), NZF appearing corrupt, Peters not being on his game and having had health issues. Just hope it all holds and the centre left can get a crack at governing alone.
     • Craig H 7.2.1

       28 September 2020 at 4:38 pm

       National-supporting NZF went to ACT or National, Labour-supporting NZF went to Labour.
       • weka 7.2.1.1

         28 September 2020 at 5:02 pm

         yes, I meant what prompted that.
         • Craig H 7.2.1.1.1

           28 September 2020 at 7:19 pm

           I think your reasons above are as likely as any, and would add the handbrake aspect – Labour supporters don't want a handbrake, and the National supporters are still stinging from him not choosing National, so more of an enabler for Labour than a handbrake (since without NZF, Labour would not be in government).
   • newsense 7.3

     28 September 2020 at 10:24 am

     Well she was put there either to sure up the base or to mix metaphors, to take the hospital pass and be a blast shield that protected the careers of other leadership aspirants…
   • Bearded Git 7.4

     28 September 2020 at 1:49 pm

     Nicely put Observer
8. Ad 8

   27 September 2020 at 8:17 pm

   After election day, even if Labour can rule the country by itself, I'd prefer they had the Greens doing something.
   • Andre 8.1

     27 September 2020 at 8:20 pm

     Preferably green stuff.
     • Ad 8.1.1

       27 September 2020 at 8:33 pm

       Sure. Conservation. But not RMA reform – too complex and they don't have legal capacity.

       Or some impossible social welfare sinkhole to offload blame.
       • Sacha 8.1.1.1

         27 September 2020 at 9:42 pm

         Transport. Maybe Energy. Associate Health.
         • Ad 8.1.1.1.1

           27 September 2020 at 10:00 pm

           Greens looking after Energy would be really interesting – both Transpower and the Electricity Authority could do with a shove.
       • Ed1 8.1.1.2

         28 September 2020 at 9:15 am

         I have been told that Eugenie Sage has done an excellent job at Conservation – some good achievements with no cock-ups or even controversy. Tracey Martin has been mentioned as a good performer from NZ First, but that is from some time back. Sometimes all the attention goes to the leaders – we need good competent people supporting them. Offhand, I can't however think of an equivalent National Party MP who was good when they were last in government . . .
   • mosa 8.2

     27 September 2020 at 10:59 pm

     “After election day, even if Labour can rule the country by itself, I'd prefer they had the Greens doing something ”

     How about this for a start.

     1 A progressive tax policy
     2 The clean energy plan
     3 Safeguarding our marine environment
     4 Real animal welfare
     5 Sustainable farming
     6 Warm secure affordable homes for everyone and that is a human right
     7 A real poverty action plan
     8 ACC policy
     9 Fair balanced broadcasting initiatives
     10 Disability policy
     11 Drug reform
     12 The Green plan for the economy
     13 Safe food policy
     14 A new approach for community action and support
     15 Climate change
     16 Youth affairs and transport
     17 Chloe Swarbrick , Ricardo Menéndez March
9. Incognito 9

   27 September 2020 at 8:35 pm

   Seymour puts the knife in and twists it like the Monster turned on Dr Frankenstein lusting after freedom.

   https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300117874/election-2020-david-seymour-tells-voters-to-skip-the-knockoff-cover-band-and-choose-act-over-national
   • Stuart Munro 9.1

     27 September 2020 at 8:42 pm

     Long past time the Gnats faced an existential threat. Wonder if the Epsom cuppa deal is affected – he might live to regret it.
   • observer 9.2

     27 September 2020 at 8:49 pm

     When a party gets the role of Hot New Flavour they get lots of boosting ("on the march!") and very little scrutiny ("but where are they marching to? who's in their army?"). See Dunne/UF 2002.

     It's probably too late to expect the media to put ACT under the microscope ("so David, you think gun owners should have military assault rifles, because that's how you voted in Parliament, right? Gonna try and bring back the slaughter weapons?").

     We can only hope that when they get into Parliament they show themselves for what they are. And that Seymour enjoys having a caucus as much as Hide did (spoiler: they went feral).
     • Bearded Git 9.2.1

       28 September 2020 at 1:53 pm

       Tova loves ACT….and never fails to mention the green school debacle (not) as though it has equivalence with climate change policy etc

       Why is ACT above the Greens in the list above?
10. ScottGN 10

    27 September 2020 at 8:42 pm

    @Incognito 9

    The more seats ACT gets the better though right? They’re taking them off National which is great, but it also increases the likelihood of an unruly ACT party in the next parliament, just like NZ First after the 1996 election. Seymour is going to be so busy managing that caucus of newbies.
    • Incognito 10.1

      27 September 2020 at 8:54 pm

      I don’t have a problem with any Party or MPs getting into Parliament as long as it doesn’t depend on Epsom-styled dodgy deals, which could be perverting the proper proportionality of NZ Parliament.

      I wonder how many Epsomalis will vote for Paora this time.
    • froggleblocks 10.2

      27 September 2020 at 9:01 pm

      ACT is the party of perpetual scandals anyway.
11. mauī 11

    27 September 2020 at 8:54 pm

    Interesting to see the media blackout on Advance NZ in the polls. They cannot hide the missing 8% in their graphic though, presumably that is what they are actually on.
    • froggleblocks 11.1

      27 September 2020 at 9:02 pm

      Polling puts Advance NZ around 1-2%.

      If they were on 8% this would be billed as an 'amazing unprecedent poll result'.
    • observer 11.2

      27 September 2020 at 9:07 pm

      I suggest reading the poll, not the graphic on the Standard. There's no missing 8%.

      Advance have got zilch.
      • mauī 11.2.1

        27 September 2020 at 9:36 pm

        Are you saying the graphic is fake?? "There's no missing 8%" – Well that is what someone who works for Reid would say….
        • The Al1en 11.2.1.1

          27 September 2020 at 9:48 pm

          Interesting to see the media blackout on Advance NZ in the polls. They cannot hide the missing 8% in their graphic though, presumably that is what they are actually on.

          "There's no missing 8%" – Well that is what someone who works for Reid would say…

          Well that is what someone who believes in conspiracy theories would say…

          or

          Well that is what someone who doesn’t independently check out the facts before they spout nonsense would say…
        • observer 11.2.1.2

          27 September 2020 at 9:50 pm

          The graphic. The full graphic …

          https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/09/nz-election-2020-newshub-reid-research-poll-shows-labour-governing-alone-as-national-languishes-in-the-20s.html
          • mauī 11.2.1.2.1

            27 September 2020 at 10:18 pm

            Two seperate graphics Observer.. and they can be easily faked….

            Anyway it doesn't square with reliable insider information.

            https://twitter.com/BillyTeKahika/status/1309365481938194432
            • The Al1en 11.2.1.2.1.1

              27 September 2020 at 10:41 pm

              reliable insider information

              From who? A conspiracy doughnut with an agenda who can't wear a face mask properly? Or the national party whose figures have been proven to be totally trustworthy and free of holes? lol
            • Incognito 11.2.1.2.1.2

              27 September 2020 at 10:48 pm

              I wonder who that reliable insider was. They seem to know stuff that the pollsters don’t.
          • Bearded Git 11.2.1.2.2

            28 September 2020 at 1:57 pm

            Why is the party with 6.3 listed above the one with 6.5?
    • Steve 11.3

      27 September 2020 at 9:11 pm

      Or not when you look at the info Newshub have for the others in the article..

      • New Conservative – 2.1%
      • NZ First – 1.9%
      • Maori – 1.5%
      • TOP – 0.9%

      Adding those to the four parties that are going to make it into Parliament is 98.9% so at most Advance NZ could be 1.1% but even that is unlikely given Vision NZ (the Tamaki rabble) weren't mentioned. More likely I would guess is that 1.1% is split between those two (along with any other micro parties not yet accounted for) with none being above 0.9%..
    • georgecom 11.4

      27 September 2020 at 10:51 pm

      the 'media blackout' of Regress NZ is actually the media not bothering to report on the sideshow with is Te Kahika & Ross. That "party" soaks up a few of the fringe elements but is otherwise pretty irrelevant.
12. Patricia Bremner 12

    27 September 2020 at 9:03 pm

    He is still a little man who wants to be a big man, and if Key had not played politics, Rimmer would not even figure.

    We have to realise how lucky we are.

    Australia will fudge their unemployed figures by not counting 3 out of 4, will sell coal to who ever and community spread of covid will quietly continue until the vaccine.

    I have relatives in Melbourne NSW and the Gold Coast, so we hear how it really is.

    Help was late and so narrowly focussed many were not assisted.

    Labour are not perfect, neither are the Greens, but 66% at least, prefer them as a team.

    The world recognises the qualities of Jacinda Ardern and her team, and the qualities of New Zealanders during this crisis.

    Now I know some here will say I am biased, well woohoo!!
    • Sacha 12.1

      27 September 2020 at 9:48 pm

      Always interested to hear more from people on the ground in places like Aus. We need reminders of how lucky we are here.
      • Koff 12.1.1

        27 September 2020 at 11:47 pm

        I think the concept of 'Australia' has been a bit of a mirage during the last few months.Each state and territory has had a different trahectory with the federal governent almost irrelevant. I am almost a defacto resident of Queensland at the moment and in this state with a population similar to NZ, there have only been 6 deaths, and fewer cases than NZ. Life is more or less normal apart from the constant cry to open the borders. SA, Tas., NT, ACT and WA haven't had any community transmission for weeks. The big stand out is Victoria which has made strategic mistakes, which also affected NSW to a much lesser degree. The biggest mistake was not so much the use of private quarantine security guards, but the too slow decision to lock down Melbourne. NZ may have had similar problems with the border but was faster at its response. The big issue hanging over Oz which will transcend the Covid situation will be the climate change bogey. The summer bush fire season hasn't started yet, but there already warnings about a likely stronger cyclone season just to remind Australians that CC hasn't gone away!
13. Paul Rogers 13

    27 September 2020 at 9:29 pm

    The NZPP blackout is likely because their supporters are all Nutters. Sure …vulnerable, mentally deficient, rabbit holers will vote at the fringes of the political spectrum and Billy certainly seems to be scooping up any and all of those who are willing to throw cash into his personal slush "get rich quick" fund. Brian Tamaki must be spewing. LOL
14. Peter 14

    27 September 2020 at 9:43 pm

    Think about it:

    The story of the election is going to be that the whole Act foothold is founded on the Man Who Can't Count.

    This will be the Paul Goldsmith Big Mistakes I Have Made Memorial Election.

    There's probably another book he can write. Or maybe mate Hooton could do it for him.

    Paul is probably out there pulling down hoardings as I write.
    • Peter 14.1

      27 September 2020 at 11:10 pm

      I've just seen Audrey Young opining "With less than one week to go until advance voting starts, the poll would see three frontbenchers ousted, Paul Goldsmith, Michael Woodhouse and Nicola Willis, and 14 other MPs."

      I don't necessarily think that will be the case but the scenario would be so lovely. The highlight is the golden Goldsmith possibility.

      Maybe Woodhouse can roust up some of hordes anonymous 'homeless men' to ride their white chargers to his rescue.
15. Incognito 15

    27 September 2020 at 10:08 pm

    Interesting to see how voters have shifted their choices.

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/09/newshub-reid-research-poll-for-the-first-time-exclusive-polling-shows-how-voting-habits-changed-since-last-election.html
    • NZJester 15.1

      27 September 2020 at 10:18 pm

      As stated in a story by Rod Oram called "Why National is no longer the party of business"

      National listens to laggards not leaders

      I posted more about this on Open Mike comment 23 along with the link

      https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-27-09-2020/#comment-1754006
    • weka 15.2

      27 September 2020 at 10:46 pm

      can you explain how they got a 40% swing from GP to Lab, given 6.27% in 2017 and 6.5% in this poll?
      • Incognito 15.2.1

        27 September 2020 at 11:10 pm

        I can try 🙂

        40% of Green voters (2017) switch to Labour, i.e. 40% of 6.3%, which amounts -2.5%.

        4.8% of Labour voters (2017) switch to Greens, i.e. 4.8% of 36.9%, which amounts to +1.8%.

        In addition, the Greens may have picked smaller fractions from the other parties and possibly from the undecided voters and there may be some ‘rounding errors’. Without the full report, it is guess work 😉
        • weka 15.2.1.1

          27 September 2020 at 11:37 pm

          ok, so the 40% thing is a tad misleading (presumably the other figures are too).

          I so want one of these for NZ,

          
          • Incognito 15.2.1.1.1

            27 September 2020 at 11:53 pm

            Not sure it was a tad misleading. Possibly incomplete, yes. We cannot tell from Tova’s verbiage.

            Yes, wouldn’t it be great to have such info on NZ voting behaviours. Quite possibly, it does exist but it isn’t shared with the public.
          • Incognito 15.2.1.1.2

            27 September 2020 at 11:59 pm

            The info is here but I don’t know if it has been graphed:

            https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2017/statistics/split-votes-all.html
          • Incognito 15.2.1.1.3

            28 September 2020 at 9:54 am

            https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/26-10-2017/the-tick-splitters-how-new-zealanders-used-their-two-votes-a-visualisation/

            There might be more …
      • Corey Humm 15.2.2

        28 September 2020 at 2:19 am

        It could also be that some TOP voters (2% in 2017) , Some Mana voters and even shock some Tory voters (I know people so out of touch they just vote based off their favorite colour ) have gone to green whole a bunch of labour voters who strategically voted green in 2017 have gone back to Labour but haven been replaced with slithers of either or both returning soft greenies from labour or new strategic labour voters.
16. georgecom 16

    27 September 2020 at 10:58 pm

    2 polls inside the past week, both showing pretty much the same. Baring some major calamity you can read the following

    National is not going to win the election. Collins has done nothing more than what Bridges or Muller could have done. A swathe of MPs gone and some wondering why they bothered to roll Bridges when they did.

    Labour are close to being able to government alone

    The Greens will get in.

    Act will increase its numbers

    Winston First gone

    The minor parties like conservative usefully wasting some of the right wing vote and others like TOP mopping up a bit.

    The Regress NZ party shows up, just, and unless Northlanders all smoke a huge amount of green on election day Bill Te Kahika has about as much chance of winning his seat as North Harbour has of winning the Mitre10 Cup. And their other “co founder” might be facing some time in jail post election, having himself discovered North Harbour probably had MORE chance than he did of holding his seat.

    The thing to ponder I guess is who will replace Collins post election and how long will it take.
    • Treetop 16.1

      27 September 2020 at 11:02 pm

      Collins could bailout at anytime.
      • observer 16.1.1

        27 September 2020 at 11:36 pm

        It's easy to forget that National leaders who lost have stuck around for a long while after the election. Shipley 1999, English 2002, Brash 2005. On average, they lasted about a year before a new leader took over.

        The problem is that the next leader has to fight the 2023 election, otherwise they just keep playing musical chairs. And they can't give Luxon the leadership before he's even sat down. So the loser has to be a caretaker until the new caucus is ready for the change. Hard to imagine Judith embracing that role.
    • Draco T Bastard 16.2

      27 September 2020 at 11:16 pm

      Collins has done nothing more than what Bridges or Muller could have done.

      She seems to have done enough to turn even more people off of National.

      A swathe of MPs gone and some wondering why they bothered to roll Bridges when they did.

      Bridges may have actually kept National in the 30s.

      The thing to ponder I guess is who will replace Collins post election and how long will it take.

      Within 6 months and Collins and Brownlee will be retiring for personal reasons.
    • georgecom 16.3

      27 September 2020 at 11:28 pm

      I should have added the following

      Jones won't save Winston First. I believe he will have a respectable showing though.

      The potential turn up might be the Maori Party getting a seat or 2. Not expecting it but won't be surprised if it happens.

      And what of the small parties fortunes after the election.

      I expect the largest of the small parties, National, to continue.

      Cannot see TOP going much longer. There heyday has been and gone with Morgan.

      I would expect the Brian Tamaki party might also quickly fold. They tried before and quickly flopped and disappeared.

      The Conservatives also had their Zenith before Colin Craig was shown to be a complete drop kick. They might decide to hang around though, at least until National gets its shit together and gathers those voters back into the fold.

      The Maori Party, if they fail to win a seat will find it hard but might just decide to continue building for another tilt at 2023.

      Winston First might simply wither away. Not sure Winnie will have another start from scratch in him but you should not write him off. I cannot see a 'fragments of Winston' party, if he quit, surviving if not in parliament.

      The irrelevant Regressives might try and survive post election however one of their leaders might need to do that work from inside a cell block and the other will probably find another tin foil hat issue to crusade on.

      So post election I would predict only National, Maori and Conservative parties continuing on, and maybe Winston First.
17. Treetop 17

    27 September 2020 at 11:01 pm

    Wouldn't it be funny if Labour had a 1 seat majority to govern alone. They would still need a supporting party incase of the unexpected.

    I think NZF is a wasted vote.
18. observer 18

    27 September 2020 at 11:24 pm

    I'm enjoying the latest episode of "Having It Both Ways: The War On Logic" (an occasional series, comes out with every opinion poll, on Channel Blue).

    Nat spinners claim Labour are down 10 points. Yes, that's true. But only if the last poll was accurate. They insisted it wasn't.

    The previous Newshub poll was famously a "rogue". National "proved" this by producing/inventing their own numbers …

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/08/nz-election-2020-gerry-brownlee-claims-national-is-on-about-40-percent.html

    Asked what numbers their internal polling is suggesting, Brownlee said "around about the 40 percent mark".

    We should not presume to doubt the gospel according to Gerry. They were 40, now 30. So in fact it's National who are down 10 points in this poll. According to them, anyway.

    If only there was a better way of finding out which party voters really support. Oh, hang on, there was … and it was due to happen last week. Judith wanted it delayed – so it was.

    How's that working out for you, Judith?
    • Dennis Frank 18.1

      28 September 2020 at 4:17 am

      Yeah, couple of good points there. Nats on 40 was wishful thinking, and the delay of a month to give them a fighting chance hasn't helped so far.

      Fighting their way out of a paper bag seems surprising hard. Centrists remain unimpressed. The apparent preference for JC as Nat leader that persisted in polling for quite a while seems to have been a chimera.

      Too early to call a Labour landslide? Perhaps, but I'll go there anyway. Only thing that can stop it coming now is some kind of a surprise that changes mass perceptions significantly. Dirty tricks brigade must be doing serious head-scratching…
19. Dennis Frank 19

    28 September 2020 at 5:33 am

    I was curious to see what those in the kiwibog are making of the poll news. Looks like denial, trying to talk up a 5% Nat rise and 10% Labour drop, plus some who are being realistic. You get mirror-image bias of course, such as all the blathering that Tova is prejudiced against National – which nicely balances all the comments you get here that she's prejudiced against Labour.

    A guide to sussing out the redneck vote:

    I know someone who is voting New Conservative because he hates both Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins, and he thinks David Seymour is too short and acts like a little puppy. So obviously lots of weighing up of policies has gone into his voting decisions.
20. Bearded Git 20

    28 September 2020 at 9:00 am

    Jacinda may be polling well but I still think that it is pathetic that she will not say what she is voting on cannabis when she has been open on medicinal cannabis, abortion and euthanasia.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300117812/election-2020-if-jacinda-ardern-supports-cannabis-legalisation-she-should-say-so
    • observer 20.1

      28 September 2020 at 9:18 am

      Basically Labour and the Greens stuffed it up.

      The Greens' policy in the 2017 campaign was to legalise. They had to settle for a referendum because NZF (and some in Labour) wouldn't have provided the numbers in Parliament.

      If Labour and the Greens win the expected majority in 2020, they could have left it to Parliament. But now they can't (politically, realistically). They gambled and will probably lose.

      A referendum in an election campaign is inevitably overshadowed. Jacinda made a hard-headed call to prioritise the Labour vote. The essential quandary is: how many MPs is it worth losing, for the sake of a "Yes" vote?

      I think her answer would be "none". It's a shame, it's a missed opportunity, but it was effectively decided by the confidence and supply deal back in 2017. Coulda, shoulda … didn't.
      • solkta 20.1.1

        28 September 2020 at 9:22 am

        So you think the Greens should not have pushed this issue until conditions were perfect? We could wait forever. Fuck, Labour promised a referendum in the 1984 election!
        • observer 20.1.1.1

          28 September 2020 at 9:50 am

          They gambled on a referendum, and polling around 2017 suggested a 50-50 chance.

          But again … a referendum at the same time as a general election is certain to be overshadowed. There was far more coverage for the far more trivial flag referendum, because it was between elections. Sorry, but being aware of that is a really basic requirement for getting the win. Build a campaign, a coalition. Where are the events, the coverage, the faces, the whole visibility of a campaign? It's not there (and Covid is a factor, but not the only one).
21. ScottGN 21

    28 September 2020 at 9:12 am

    Everyone is assuming she supports legalisation. Maybe she does or maybe she doesn’t?

    But it’s certainly true that without another Labour woman PM wading in their behalf the hopeless pro-legalisation campaign would be dead on arrival.
    • Barfly 21.1

      28 September 2020 at 9:17 am

      Drug dealers and alcohol pushers will be overjoyed
      • Dennis Frank 21.1.1

        28 September 2020 at 9:43 am

        Yep, we've had significant backsliding in recent months and the latest poll showing support for the proposed law is down to a third of the electorate suggests two thirds prefer the black market to fund gangs instead of liberating the oppressed minority.

        That's mainstreamers for you. Full of shit. Pretend to believe in civil rights, but vote for closet fascism (Nat voters) and closet stalinism (Lab voters).
22. ScottGN 22

    28 September 2020 at 9:50 am

    @observer 20.1

    I couldn’t agree more. Acquiescing to NZFirst’s demand for a referendum was pretty shortsighted and dumb. If we get a no vote then the issue is shelved for the foreseeable future. Labour and the Greens should have played a smarter more long term game. A Labour/Green coalition has always been a possibility for 2020. They could have just waited a bit and legislated decriminalisation like Trudeau did in Canada via a confidence vote.

    I might have more sympathy for the demands that Jacinda lend some of her star power to the yes campaign if it wasn’t for the fact that, Helen Clark aside, the yes campaign has been a total joke. Whoever was in charge of the yes vote campaign clearly couldn’t organise a lie down in a bloody mortuary. So you’ll end up with the result you deserve and it’s a shame because legalisation is a no-brainer.
23. ScottGN 23

    28 September 2020 at 9:55 am

    @Dennis Frank 21.1.1

    Hey Dennis maybe stop castigating voters for not doing what you think they should do. And concentrate your ire on the bloody useless yes campaign organisers. I know Covid hasn’t helped but it has been been one of the the most inept referendum campaigns you’ll ever see. Saved only by the considerable effort Helen Clark has put in to rescue it from itself.
    • Dennis Frank 23.1

      28 September 2020 at 11:00 am

      I do agree with you Scott – casting my mind back to the MMP campaign, it wasn't just Rod Donald's leadership, it was collective dynamism to create a better political path to the future for Aotearoa. I get no credit for that because I didn't help (dirty politics by leftists within the Greens had alienated me by then).

      The problem nowadays is lack of minority rights focus. There's an exploration of that here (where I tossed in a few comments): https://theconversation.com/the-missing-question-from-new-zealands-cannabis-debate-what-about-personal-freedom-and-individual-rights-146304#comment_2342816
24. Steve 24

    28 September 2020 at 9:59 am

    I note ACT or Twirker Party promises a lot. but arent they just a alternative for people who dont want Judith Collins but want National Govt.? I never heard any true costings from Twirker Party [ ACT] . Seymour is just full of talk.
    As for Green Party after them refusing to sign any other projects off unless they got there Green School. For that and holding Govt to ransom they are better off out of Govt and lets hope there Support falls below 5% so they no longer get into Parliament.
    After all Greens are just Glorified protesters.

    [Good morning, Steve. You seem to be new here so here’s some advice on basic rules of this site. Please stick to the facts and don’t try to create some BS narrative to suit your thinking. FYI, Parties don’t sign off on Government decisions, not even the Green Party. I highly recommend you read this site’s Policy before you comment again. Have a nice day, Steve – Incognito]
    • Incognito 24.1

      28 September 2020 at 10:09 am

      See my Moderation note @ 9:59 AM.
      • greywarshark 24.1.1

        28 September 2020 at 4:11 pm

        Some truth can be taken from Steve's comment I think. The mention of Greens being Glorified Protesters is so true. If it wasn't for Green protesting about environment matters for decades, we would still be slumping round knuckle-dragging some distance away from Square One.

        So I and all thoughtful others Glorify the Greens for being the great people who have stuck with the mahi, along with most Maori aiming at kaitiaki roles, through the thick and thin for so long.

        Yay the Greens!
        • Incognito 24.1.1.1

          29 September 2020 at 12:00 am

          Steve and you share the same opinion, which doesn’t make it factually true.

          Steve was factually incorrect.

          Steve has been nailing his colours to the mast, which is fine, but making up BS to suit his bias is not.
    • Andre 24.2

      28 September 2020 at 10:13 am

      The act that Seymour is best known for is twerking, not twirking. So Twirker Party isn't a fair description, unless twirking is yet another bizarre behaviour I haven't heard of.
      • Incognito 24.2.1

        28 September 2020 at 10:56 am

        Twerking + smirking = twirking?
      • weka 24.2.2

        28 September 2020 at 1:57 pm

        play on Worker Party?
        • Robert Guyton 24.2.2.1

          28 September 2020 at 2:00 pm

          Smirking.
          • greywarshark 24.2.2.1.1

            28 September 2020 at 4:06 pm

            Tworking?
          • weka 24.2.2.1.2

            28 September 2020 at 5:04 pm

            for some reason how I'm seeing Seymour is some smocking.
            • Robert Guyton 24.2.2.1.2.1

              28 September 2020 at 5:05 pm

              Yeah, me too! And smirking and perhaps, smoking (though he's holding his fag behind his back).
25. Hunter Thompson II 25

    28 September 2020 at 10:25 am

    Judith Collins doesn't see RMA reform as a complex problem. Just repeal the whole Act and it's job done.

    And she will also get rid of those pesky water quality rules that Labour brought in. They simply prevent farmers doing whatever they want to our rivers.
26. swordfish 26

    28 September 2020 at 3:59 pm

    We might do well to bear in mind that this latest Reid Research poll was largely conducted before the Leaders' Debate (Fieldwork: Sep 16-23) / Leaders' Debate Sep 22. (Vast majority of fieldwork would've been over by final day).

    You never know, Judith's highly theatrical pouting & eye-rolling might just've won back many a faint Nat heart.
    • Dennis Frank 26.1

      28 September 2020 at 4:06 pm

      What about the money or the bag inducement? How many days after the money got dangled as a lure did those defecting centrists have to consider returning to National before the polling ceased?

      It looks like the ploy was a total failure, eh? But if enough centrists are still musing about the thing, Jacinda's mystery in her bag may not have sufficient mystique. "My plan is a cunning surprise! I won't even decide what it is until I see the election result!"
    • observer 26.2

      28 September 2020 at 4:15 pm

      Another Colmar Brunton/TVNZ poll out tonight, apparently. So that should cover it.

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