National coalition with NZ First?

Written By: - Date published: 5:00 pm, January 21st, 2014 - 126 comments
Categories: act, conservative party, election 2014, greens, john key, labour, mana, maori party, national, peter dunne - Tags:

john-key-winston-peters-2-february-20111

How times have changed.

In 2008 and in 2011 Key adopted what some thought was a position of principle and ruled out National going into coalition with NZ First, specifically Winston Peters.  But it seems that National’s dwindling prospects at this year’s election have made it err on the side of expediency over purported principle.

From Stuff:

Prime Minister John Key has announced a big shift in National’s position heading into the next election by refusing to rule out a coalition deal with NZ First.

It is the first time Key has even contemplated going into government with NZ First leader Winston Peters after consistently ruling him out as a coalition ally since 2008.

As a further sign of how desperate the Government is Peter Dunne has been returned to Cabinet and Chris Tremain has been sent to the knacker’s yard in advance of his exit from Parliament.

Key today announced the reshuffle of his Cabinet, returning Dunne as a minister and dumping Chris Tremain.

Dunne resigned as a minister last year after an inquiry into the leaking of a sensitive report could not rule him out as the source.

Key said today Dunne would be appointed minister of internal affairs, associate minister of health and associate minister of conservation. Dunne will be a minister outside Cabinet as he was prior to his resignation in June last year.

Key also confirmed his preference for the Conservatives.

Announcing his preferences for possible coalition talks today, Key also indicated talks with Colin Craig’s Conservatives Party would be possible, despite policy differences between the two parties.

Given the right electoral circumstances, he would prefer to continue working with the Government’s three current partners – ACT, the Maori Party and UnitedFuture, he said.

“I believe there is also a scenario where it would be possible to add the Conservative Party to this group,” Key said.

The Greens and Mana will be pleased that Key has ruled out working with them.

For National to succeed we could see a multi headed National-Act-Maori Party-United Future-Conservative-NZ First government.

How stable would that be?

126 comments on “National coalition with NZ First? ”

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  1. Paul Campbell 1
    21 January 2014 at 5:04 pm

    So Dunne finally got the payback he expected for supporting the GCSB bill …

  2. Chooky 2
    21 January 2014 at 5:05 pm

    John Key has no principles …and Peters wont go into coalition with National ….unless he wants to ruin his own reputation for ever.

    Key must be getting worried to be putting out those feelers to NZF

    ….Key is on the ropes and he knows it …… despite the bullshit propaganda about a NZ “rockstar economy” made by his bankster friends

  3. idlegus 3
    21 January 2014 at 5:12 pm

    be interesting to see how hooton spins this one, he holds peters with the utmost disdain, i recall.

  4. Michael 4
    21 January 2014 at 5:13 pm

    I hope Winston asks Key to give him the Moon as his price for keeping him in office for another term. I , wouldn’t rule out a Nat-ACT-Dunne-NZFirst coalition; both Winston and Key are ruthlessly pragmatic, totally unconstrained by any principles. The best way to prevent this scenario is, of course, for Labour to get more Party Votes than any other Party. That way, Cunliffe can call the shots in coalition negotiations with Winston and the other players. That outcome does not look likely at present, in light of reports than some of the caucus prefer another term in opposition rather than one on government under Cunliffe.

    • Chooky 4.1
      21 January 2014 at 5:25 pm

      Winston has always held the principles of not selling off NZ State owned assets and land to foreigners….He would have gone far in the National Party if he hadnt held these principles.

      ….so he does have principles ….and dont forget he pulled down the National Govt over sale of State Assets…he said he would and he did

      He will spurn National if given the chance …..for many reasons ….but one is the sale of State Assets

      • PapaMike 4.1.1
        22 January 2014 at 3:52 pm

        Winston is like a prostitute – he will sell himself to the highest bidder – but will he please repay the $148,000 he stole from taxpayers first.

    • Lanthanide 4.2
      21 January 2014 at 5:37 pm

      Winston has principles. If you think he doesn’t, you don’t know him very well.

      • Bill 4.2.1
        21 January 2014 at 5:55 pm

        Leftish on economic policy. Right wing as all hell on social policy. Call him an old school conservative? meh Anyway, his principle ‘policy’ is securing power and influence for himself. So, would he go with a Nat led government or Labour led government? Both. He just elevates either of his social or economic bent according to circumstance.

        • Chooky 4.2.1.1
          21 January 2014 at 6:43 pm

          …disagree..Winston was burned badly last time he went into coalition with National

          ( even although he brought the National govt down in short order…this is why the Nats hate him so much and have never forgiven him ..he could and would do it again)

          ……never-the-less his coalition with National almost killed Winston’s NZF party support….I doubt whether he will do it again

          …….especially as has been against John Key on just about everything!….it is there is no love lost between them

          ….Key has done the numbers and is desperate to woo….. and crawling!…just as Winston likes him!

          • Bearded Git 4.2.1.1.1
            21 January 2014 at 8:39 pm

            Winston will not go with Key because

            1. He has no respect at all for Key.
            2. He will enjoy keeping the Greens out of cabinet-a condition of his support for Cunliffe.

            It follows that we must hope that lab/greens/mana get 49% between them-that should be enough not to need Peters.

            • Chooky 4.2.1.1.1.1
              21 January 2014 at 9:00 pm

              ..agree with 1)….not sure about 2)……once upon a time NZF and the Greens were in competition but the Greens have pulled way ahead now ….and besides they are not going for the same voters …

              i would be very disappointed if Winnie tried to exclude the Greens from Cabinet.( a most unpopular move in these days of global warming and GP strength )..nor do i think Labour would wear it, or could afford to exclude the Greens ….so I think given his age Winnie would just settle for Foreign Affairs Minister and ignore the Greens

              …conclusion…the Left cant alienate and exclude Winnie as a potential partner( he worked well with Helen Clark) ….but on the other hand if one wants a Left govt with the Greens …it is probably best not to vote for him strategically, nor is there the need to strategically …and as per usual he is wooing and wowing his own voters around the country

  5. tricledrown 5
    21 January 2014 at 5:24 pm

    Haersey Hootens attemp at dog whistling saying Key won’t Go near that man.
    Hootens reasoning not that he said so is if Nactional can squeeze peters under 5% and then gift colon Craig north shore .machevalian overkill me thinks.Hooton is rapidly becoming yesterdays man.

  6. bad12 6
    21 January 2014 at 5:25 pm

    On the surface this is just a boring announcement from Slippery the Prime Minister telling us what we all mostly have guessed would be the entrails of today’s ‘big announcement’

    IF there is any deviousness afoot from the brains(less) trust up on the Beehive’s 9th floor in putting this little piece of media hype together it will be surrounding the ‘we can work with NZFirst in Government’ announcement,

    The ‘calculators’ managing and massaging the political process in Slippery’s office might have come to the conclusion that if He gave the thumbs up to NZFirst as a coalition partner it might just drive the left wing of NZFirst voters away from that party,( on the surface a win win for National),

    Perhaps a little too machiavellian for New Zealand politics, but, considering where the ‘political advice’ comes from anything is possible…

    • karol 6.1
      21 January 2014 at 5:40 pm

      The interesting thing is that Key puts the Maori Party right in the middle of a right wing coalition – I don’t knwo how much that will please the Maori Party members….?

      Andd Key ruled out the Greens and Mana – saying they are too “far left” – which pretty much indicates how far right Key really is.

      Peters still playing hard to get.

      • bad12 6.1.1
        21 January 2014 at 5:51 pm

        Karol, a display of serious delusion on Slippery’s part, i will be surprised of the Maori Party feature in the Parliament after the upcoming election…

      • Sacha 6.1.2
        21 January 2014 at 5:54 pm

        The Maori Party is not left.

        • bad12 6.1.2.1
          21 January 2014 at 6:45 pm

          Sacha, have a look at the Maori Party voting pattern in the Parliament which would strongly suggest that they are a left leaning party with strong suicidal tendencies in giving confidence and supply to the right,

          i fully expect after voting concludes this year to be only discussing the Maori Party in a historical sense…

        • Not a PS Staffer 6.1.2.2
          22 January 2014 at 7:30 am

          Nor are the Greens a leftwing party. They are largely a white middle class urban part, despite having a Maori leader. Those Greens who had strong social justice credentials are likely to support Labour under Cunliffe or Mana with Sue Bradford.

    • blue leopard (Get Lost GCSB Bill) 6.2
      22 January 2014 at 1:30 am

      Yes Bad12, this thought flitted across my mind on hearing the news.

      Key saying he is open to working with NZ First could well undermine NZ First support – unless Winston says something very strong to oppose the idea.

      Has he made any statements on the matter yet?

  7. Ad 7
    21 January 2014 at 5:30 pm

    Key has good years experience in replacing Ministers, renewing the party, and sustaining a coalition within the minimum of fuss.

    I seriously hope there are smart people within the Greens and Labour (at least) who can talk to each other on a daily basis. Cunliffe has certainly observed it with the Clark government, but otherwise I see skills lacking within the current Labour caucus in coalition management. Happy to be proved wrong.

    • Sacha 7.1
      21 January 2014 at 5:40 pm

      We need to see some proof of a viable coalition on the left really soon. Joint policy, etc.

      • karol 7.1.1
        21 January 2014 at 5:47 pm

        Nah. Each party just needs to focus on their policies, with discussions going on behind the scenes. The election will indicate how they do/don’t negotiate an agreed alliance.

  8. BM 8
    21 January 2014 at 5:50 pm

    Even though I’m picking National to get over 50%, this is a great move by Key

    There’s now plenty of minor parties in the mix that he can go to if by some small chance National doesn’t crack 50%

    Conservatives
    Maori party
    NZ First
    United Future

    Not too shabby for a party that apparently had no coalition partners.

    Plenty of options there for National, maybe 2020 might be labours turn, that’s if they’re still around.

    • karol 8.1
      21 January 2014 at 6:01 pm

      Conservatives – no MPs, one leader.
      UF – a one man band.
      Maori Party… watch this space, now you see them, now………

      • BM 8.1.1
        21 January 2014 at 6:11 pm

        Conservatives will get a seat
        Maori Party will get a seat or two
        UF will get a seat

        Key will probably only need a couple of the above to form a party

        Peters may break 5% but to be honest I’m not sure how likely that will be, there’s just nothing coming up in this year year to make NZ First a voting choice.

        The only reason he didn’t rule Peters out is because of Dot com.

        • mickysavage 8.1.1.1
          21 January 2014 at 6:13 pm

          Can you really see National getting more votes than last time? Really BM?

          • BM 8.1.1.1.1
            21 January 2014 at 6:18 pm

            Yes.

            Economy is really starting to take off and lets be honest there’s just no other viable party out there to take over the reigns.

            It’s National by default really, everyone can see that.

            • karol 8.1.1.1.1.1
              21 January 2014 at 6:26 pm

              Economy is really starting to take off

              Navigation and landing could be a problem.

            • sabine 8.1.1.1.1.2
              21 January 2014 at 7:01 pm

              i am hearing a lot of the economy taking off? would that before or after the election? will this be a good economy for all or just some in the financial and real estate sector?

              I am just curious, cause I can tell you there are a lot of people waiting for the economy to take off…..finally.

            • Ad 8.1.1.1.1.3
              21 January 2014 at 8:12 pm

              Economic growth, and confidence, only for the few.
              But it’s the many who will vote.

              Know why I know? It’s the people here will get them to the polls.

            • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.1.1.4
              21 January 2014 at 8:16 pm

              It’s National by default really, everyone can see that.

              National + Winston Peters apparently, according to your dear leader. Are you sure that’s a default you like?

              • BM …
                21 January 2014 at 8:30 pm

                If that’s what it takes to put a stake in Labour, I don’t think he’ll be needed but if it comes down to the wire, so be it.

                I really think Labour’s on the verge of collapsing, I don’t think they could survive another 3 years in opposition, no money, no talent this is do or die for the red team.

          • Armchair Critic 8.1.1.1.2
            21 January 2014 at 10:02 pm

            There’s no way in hell that National will get more votes than 2011, and no one with a shred of credibility would suggest it, MS. Their zenith occurred in the months before the last election and it’s downhill from there.

        • karol 8.1.1.2
          21 January 2014 at 6:16 pm

          Even Paddy Glower, Nat sickofant, is calling it Key “swallowing dead rats”.

          • BM 8.1.1.2.1
            21 January 2014 at 6:20 pm

            Gowers just doing his job and that is to create political stories.

            You don’t actually base anything around what Gower says?

            • ghostwhowalksnz 8.1.1.2.1.1
              21 January 2014 at 7:02 pm

              Beats what you are saying.

              So after 5 years , National has borrowed to the hilt – with no plan to pay it back- while they sat and waited …and waited for a recovery based on outside factors.

              Remember all their plans came to zilch- the increase in GST, and every budget they spent more than Labour .

          • bad12 8.1.1.2.2
            21 January 2014 at 7:19 pm

            Considering the sum total of the Gower piece on TV3 News tonight i get the distinct impression that wee Patrick might have been recently schooled in terms of ‘balance’,

            With viewing rates across the whole free to air spectrum said to be as low as 12% on some recent nights TV3 might have come to the belated realization that they cannot afford to keep bleeding viewers when they are provoked by the usual Gower ravings…

            • BM 8.1.1.2.2.1
              21 January 2014 at 7:36 pm

              What I find interesting is how few actually watch the news and this is going on those bollocky tv statistics.

              According to scoop

              http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1308/S00697/strong-3-news-ratings-set-up-25-54-win-for-tv3.htm

              The stats are
              3 News 366,400
              ONE 751,300

              Giving a total of 1,117,700 people.

              Registered voters

              3,070,847 people

              Only around 36% of registered voters watch the news

              Personally I think far too much emphasis is given to the ramblings of political commentators and the impact their spin has on the average voter.

              • BM …
                21 January 2014 at 8:10 pm

                And only around 12% of registered voters watch 3 news.

                Patrick Gower is irrelevant.

                • gem …
                  21 January 2014 at 8:26 pm

                  Yes; and the ones who watch are theoretically more interested in politics/current affairs and less likely to be swing voters. It’s why stories like Pike that would once have sustained traction/outrage run out of impetus. And partly why the Nats got away with selling assets when it was a disaster just 10-20 years ago.

              • Colonial Viper …
                21 January 2014 at 8:11 pm

                I’m guessing that the people who watch the news (and I am guessing are more likely to have a newspaper subscription too) are the kind of registered voters who are more likely to actually turnout on the day.

                • BM …
                  21 January 2014 at 8:27 pm

                  People who do watch the news are fairly set in their voting preference.

                  I don’t think the way politics is presented on the evening news really has a lot of sway on the voting public.

            • Bearded Git 8.1.1.2.2.2
              21 January 2014 at 8:45 pm

              Agree Bad12. I thought he (Gower) did a pretty good job of exposing Key’s lack of principle on tv3 news tonight. And the 6-headed monster reference was wonderful.

              Any talented person out there able to do a suitable graphic of this 6-headed monster (Nat/NZF/UF/ACT/MP/CP)? Could be very useful line of attack.

          • tricledrown 8.1.1.2.3
            21 January 2014 at 11:27 pm

            Karol it looked like paddy was swallowing the dead rats as he spoke.

        • Rosie 8.1.1.3
          22 January 2014 at 8:38 am

          “UF will get a seat”

          Can you tell us how you know that BM?

    • dave 8.2
      21 January 2014 at 6:07 pm

      bm what the hell are you sniffing keys glory days are done and dusted just like Dunne

    • Skinny 8.3
      21 January 2014 at 6:55 pm

      Your deluded BM internal polling shows National are suffering slippage. Act is only good for 1 MP, Dunne is finished once the electorate block vote him out, Maori party lucky to get 1. Conservative party won’t get over 5% or a seat. Peters will grab the limelight right on cue and stiff Key, bolstering  his percentages to maintain a healthy 6%. Finally KDC will get the slackers to the polling booths, ‘voting is the in thing’ in 2014. Labour will benefit by getting candidate votes in previous tight seats they lost. 

      Chin up BM a soon to be expat will be looking for a caddy in Hawaii, dust up ya skills chap!           

  9. gobsmacked 9
    21 January 2014 at 5:54 pm

    The funny side to this is not Key’s totally predictable shift, but (yet again) the way he makes fools of his supporters.

    You can find countless examples on this blog alone (and far more on Kiwiblog and other places where Nats hang out). The same conversation, constantly over the past 5 years …

    “Super John Key is principled, he’s ruled out Winston!”

    “No, he’s ruled out Winston to get votes. Principle has nothing to do with it.”

    “No, you lefties just don’t know principle when you see it. Key is different! He has real principles! Yay!”

    “But he’ll rule him back in when he needs him. Just wait and see …”

    “No, Winston is finished. Key has principles! Hooray for Key”

    etc, etc.

    Some were fools who believed, some were liars who (deep down) didn’t believe, but all were wrong.

  10. karol 10
    21 January 2014 at 5:55 pm

    From the Stuff article, Key apparently talking out of both sides of his mouth at once:

    The announcement is a different strategy for the prime minister, who said he would cut the political game playing.

    So what is today’s announcement if not playing some little polticking games?

    Pit NZ First and Conservatives against each other, and see who comes up trumps? Drive a wedge between Winston & the “left” parties? Reinforce perceptions of Maori Party as having become quite right wing?

  11. Psycho Milt 11
    21 January 2014 at 5:57 pm

    …and Peters wont go into coalition with National ….unless he wants to ruin his own reputation for ever.

    I’ve lost count of the number of times Peters has ruined his own reputation forever. It doesn’t seem to cause him any great difficulties.

    It is the first time Key has even contemplated going into government with NZ First leader Winston Peters after consistently ruling him out as a coalition ally since 2008.

    Or, more accurately, it’s the first time Key has even contemplated going into government with Peters since the polls stopped telling him he was going to win anyway.

    • weka 11.1
      21 January 2014 at 8:21 pm

      +1

      So Key says he can work with Peters. The real question for the left is can Peters work with Key. We ignore this at our peril.

      • Zorr 11.1.1
        21 January 2014 at 11:06 pm

        I honestly think the Asset Sales are what will always prevent Winnie from being able to work with Key. Despite the fact that most are done and dusted now, he is very much a fiscal conservative (as mentioned above) and actually believes very highly in retaining state assets. Not to mention, so do his core constituents…

        As much as politics is about swallowing dead rats, I don’t think even Winnie would swallow one this big for him…

        • Mike S 11.1.1.1
          22 January 2014 at 12:56 am

          Yep, he’s already stated publicly that buying back the shares in the power companies would be an absolute bottom line, non negotiable policy for any party wanting to go into coalition with NZ First.

          Can’t see Key and English doing that.

          Of course, Winston could go back on that.

        • SHG (not Colonial Viper) 11.1.1.2
          22 January 2014 at 3:22 am

          Winston only has two priorities.

          1. When not in government, get in government.
          2. When in government, get in Cabinet.

        • Matthew Hooton 11.1.1.3
          22 January 2014 at 6:50 am

          What on earth makes you think he “actually believes very highly in retaining state assets”?

          The only time he had true political power, when he was Treasurer, he led the process to sell shares in Auckland International Airport Ltd, calling it “popular capitalism”.

          At the time he said: “The purpose of this exercise is to shore up the Crown against future risk of developmental cost and free up money for other investments and interest servicing charges.”

          He believes in nothing at all, which is why it is so disappointing John Key has done this u-turn.

          It would be to David Cunliffe’s credit if he now ruled out working with the charlatan.

          • Skinny 11.1.1.3.1
            22 January 2014 at 7:21 am

            Hooton it’s not a matter of Key-National willing to form any coalition arrangement with Peters-NZF. After he spent a term in the wilderness, caused by Nationals smear campaign, Winston seeks revenge. He will stitch up a deal with Labour pre election & humiliatingly 
            rule National out in the final 10 days before polling day. His popularity will leap from not making the threshold to just over what he got last election 5.9 %. 
            Key has made a bad judgement declaring his hand, and that integrity Key has you talked about just got flushed down the toilet. I’d be feeling a tad red faced if I were you.

            • Matthew Hooton 11.1.1.3.1.1
              22 January 2014 at 9:56 am

              Yep

              • Skinny …
                22 January 2014 at 12:39 pm

                Of course this is the game of politics and the pre election prove of the pudding will be how stronger contender Key-National put up in the Whangarei electorate seat should Peters elect to stand there. Which I suspect he will to add further icing on Winstons egotistical cake. No doubting Peters is one tricky character, so I’d be expecting Cunliffe to make overtones that he may indeed insist on a publicly announced coalition arrange with NZF prior to the election. As far as I see it’s Labour who will determine Peters-NZF’s fate.

                • karol …
                  22 January 2014 at 12:45 pm

                  I’d be expecting Cunliffe to make overtones that he may indeed insist on a publicly announced coalition arrange with NZF prior to the election

                  Cunliffe already ruled that out on RNZ this morning – basically said such things will be decided after the election – let the people decide. Cunliffe just stressed the policies Labour had in common with NZF.

                  • Skinny …
                    22 January 2014 at 2:51 pm

                    *Arrangement
                    Guess it is early days, however it’s in Winston’s better interests, as Labour will not only reclaim votes but also gain votes, NZF votes. Key has boxed Peters into a corner really. Unless Key thinks his charms can motivate National supporters to strategically candidate vote Peters in Whangarei. Time will tell all.

          • felix 11.1.1.3.2
            22 January 2014 at 7:58 am

            “He believes in nothing at all, which is why it is so disappointing John Key has done this u-turn.

            It would be to David Cunliffe’s credit if he now ruled out working with the charlatan.”

            I agree he’s a charlatan who believes in nothing at all. Very strong words from you though Matthew; he is after all the leader of your party, the man who instructs you how to vote every three years.

            Not sure why you think Cunliffe should rule out working with him either, a grand coalition is the most unlikely of outcomes.

          • tricledrown 11.1.1.3.3
            22 January 2014 at 9:43 am

            Hearsey Hooten
            That means Keys
            Integrety is totally shot your own commentry9 to
            noone.
            Is this another one of your schemes to make you look like the good guy and are you going to stand for SACt.

          • KJT 11.1.1.3.4
            22 January 2014 at 6:10 pm

            “I agree he’s a charlatan who believes in nothing at all”.

            Should be an excellent fit with the National caucus, then!

  12. dave 12
    21 January 2014 at 6:02 pm

    moari party to much higgin torries gone

    act has the plague gone

    Dunne hes done and dusted gone

    crazy colin wannabe never none existent

    david cunliffe hello prime minister

  13. freedom 13
    21 January 2014 at 6:10 pm

    National’s coalition thought process is very simple:

    I hate brussel sprouts
    I refuse to eat brussel sprouts
    I won’t get dessert?
    pass those sprouts baby

  14. greywarbler 14
    21 January 2014 at 6:29 pm

    Dunne says in his well modulated sensible voice that he and key are mates and key offering him a ninistry (sic) is all part of this happy relationship.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 14.1
      21 January 2014 at 7:04 pm

      Laeve out the bit that he cant be trusted, and would sell Nationals secrets in an blink of the eye

  15. BrucetheMoose 15
    21 January 2014 at 6:53 pm

    National-Act-Maori Party-United Future-Conservative-NZ First? Doesn’t leave much room for anybody else. The Devil will be disappointed here.

  16. tricledrown 16
    21 January 2014 at 6:54 pm

    Peters got votes off labour last time because goff wasn’t seen as a winner so they wanted a bit
    Mongrel Peters has failed to fire.
    Those disafected labour supporters are going with cunliffe this time.
    So Peters is going to be taking more National supporters this time it will be his last stint so he will want baubles galore.

  17. SHG (not Colonial Viper) 17
    21 January 2014 at 7:16 pm

    Such is the reality of pre-election manoeuvring under MMP.

    Wish we could have dumped it for STV, but no. MMP means we will have Winston hanging around until someone finally puts a stake through the old vampire’s heart.

  18. Tracey 18
    21 January 2014 at 7:19 pm

    Dont know what the big deal is. Key says WInston’s changed not him. Kay?

  19. Tracey 19
    21 January 2014 at 7:22 pm

    Gobsmacked

    ” the way he makes fools of his supporters.

    You can find countless examples on this blog alone (and far more on Kiwiblog and other places where Nats hang out). The same conversation, constantly over the past 5 years …

    “Super John Key is principled, he’s ruled out Winston!”

    “No, he’s ruled out Winston to get votes. Principle has nothing to do with it.”

    “No, you lefties just don’t know principle when you see it. Key is different! He has real principles! Yay!”

    “But he’ll rule him back in when he needs him. Just wait and see …”

    “No, Winston is finished. Key has principles! Hooray for Key”

    +1

  20. Rich 20
    21 January 2014 at 7:59 pm

    I heard Peseta Sam’s “associate minister” job was his downpayment on not defecting to Colin Craig.

    • SHG (not Colonial Viper) 20.1
      21 January 2014 at 8:19 pm

      I heard Peseta Sam’s “associate minister” job was his downpayment on not defecting to Colin Craig.

      I don’t think you understand how NZ elections work.

  21. weka 21
    21 January 2014 at 8:20 pm

    “For National to succeed we could see a multi headed National-Act-Maori Party-United Future-Conservative-NZ First government.

    How stable would that be?”

    Disappointed to see that from you micky. It’s a bit FPP-ish. What about Labour/GP/Mana/NZF? How stable would that be? Isn’t the multi-headed criticism what Key uses against the left?

    We really have to get past this big party shit, and see the potential for developing process for building relationships that increase representation.

    • Draco T Bastard 21.1
      21 January 2014 at 9:18 pm

      I believe MS was being sarcastic in that sentence as it’s the BS argument that the RWNJs used about the left coalition in the 2005/8 elections.

      [I was Draco, it was a frequent criticism by the right last time – MS]

  22. Jan 22
    21 January 2014 at 8:28 pm

    It would almost (but not quite) be worth it just to see Jonkey having to deal with Winston on a daily basis – I think it would be a case of biting off more than he could chew! At least we would get the odd laugh as HMS Aotearoa sank beneath the waves

  23. BEATINGTHEBOKS 23
    21 January 2014 at 9:08 pm

    My prediction
    Key 60-70% for pm. definitely a smiling assassin. ( but people trust him)
    Cunnliffe 10-20% for pm, he needs a jaw line. ( people don’t trust him)
    Nats 40-45%, bullet proof currently. (police rapists) maybe a bit unfair to the cops.
    Lab 30-35%. too far left. (husband/wife beaters apologists)
    Greens 5-15% oil spill needed. (nutters)
    The rest will be incorporated and prostitute themselves for power and influence, as usual.
    Nats will likely form govt, anyway anyhow. Unlikely to form a govt without the major party getting in the 40-45% area. Don’t think labour is offering a good alternative, too left, too feminist, too green.
    Take a middle path, more votes will be won, and the purse strings will be handed over, then you can have the luxury of having an ideology, time in opposition is basically like being in jail, boring and pointless.

  24. Ross 24
    21 January 2014 at 9:22 pm

    John Key: “These are my principles…and if you don’t like them, well, I have others”.

  25. Varity 25
    21 January 2014 at 9:27 pm

    He’ll go with National if it suits him. He sold out years ago … before most of your were even born. He’ll do it again.

    • Colonial Viper 25.1
      22 January 2014 at 9:11 am

      Key will go with UFO believing Moon landing skeptic Chem trail questioning Colin Craig, if it suits the PM.

      Oh the tough choices the electorate has to make this year.

  26. Old Tony 26
    21 January 2014 at 10:18 pm

    Low key, reasoned, undramatic statement of how the PM sees the landscape. Not dripping with portentousness a la Helen Clarke. No particular effort to justify the change. Just a view, take it or leave it. And as the comments here indicate so clearly once again you lot are completely blind to the attractiveness of that approach to the electorate because of your desire to see the devil incarnate in the man.

    • Ross 26.1
      22 January 2014 at 7:45 am

      Tony

      You have a very short memory. In 2008, Key publicly dissed Winston and suggested the latter was the most unpredictable and unprincipled MP. Key ruled out working with Winston First. But now it seems Key’s principles are negotiable. In other words, he doesn’t have any. Hence my comment:

      John Key: “These are my principles…and if you don’t like them, well, I have others”.

  27. vto 27
    21 January 2014 at 10:36 pm

    It would be the most impotent government in a long time

  28. Will@Welly 28
    21 January 2014 at 10:48 pm

    The left need a strategy. Trust Winston at your peril.
    Gift Hone and the Mana Party Te Ururoa Flavell’s Waiariki Electorate, and allow Annette Sykes to win. Focus on Tamaki Makaurau and Te Tai Hauaruru instead. Enough of National’s lapdog. In all my years I have never witnessed Maori cosy up to Pakeha like this rabble. And for what? Shyte!!
    Target Ohariu, get rid of Peter Dunne, no Katrina Shanks, so Labour/Greens need a strong candidate.
    Key & Joyce are going to pull every dirty trick out of the bag – already he is calling the Greens and Mana too extreme, too left to work with. He hasn’t even announced the election and already he is electioneering.
    The left need to be prepared to counter at every opportunity, then go on the aggression. Always being reactionary will not work.
    Expect the right, including the media, NZ Business Inc., NZ Stock Exchange, etc., to “talk-up” the economy, maybe even throw a few surprises the workers way – but as only as a one-off. Remember National has a “war-chest” to throw the voters way this year. Next year, back to austerity.
    John Key announced today he sees more “attacks” on the agenda for next year. We need a co-ordinated approach – damn sure the right’s attacks will be.

    • tricledrown 28.1
      21 January 2014 at 11:33 pm

      W@W I say give him Enough rope and they will hang them selves!
      Dead rats are just the entree!

  29. fisiani 29
    21 January 2014 at 11:07 pm

    With regard to New Zealand First, Mr Key said that he believed a post-election working relationship was very unlikely; however he would not rule the possibility out ahead of the election.

    “In 2008 we ruled them out because we were unable to reconcile some of their statements on the Glenn donation matter. Six years has passed and, should New Zealand First be returned to Parliament, we would not rule out a discussion after the election.”

    Which part of the above even mentions coalition with NZF. Yet again a post that misses the point entirely. I can assure you that John Key will NEVER be in coalition with Winston.

    • One Anonymous Knucklehead 29.1
      22 January 2014 at 6:25 am

      That’s true: National are going to lose the election.

      • TightyRighty 29.1.1
        22 January 2014 at 1:02 pm

        lol your having a giggle.

        care to put a wager on that? CV wouldn’t, but he just yammers away on the sideline haranguing those people who actually do things without sticking his own neck out.

        I’ll make the same wager with you. National win – you admit by writing a full length post you’ve been wrong about pretty much everything politcal and in particular your current viewpoint on nationals ability to govern. labour win, i’ll do the same.

    • felix 29.2
      22 January 2014 at 8:20 am

      lol fizzy.

      Your principled hero ruled him out because he was unable to reconcile certain statements, but that was 6 years ago.

      So has he reconciled them now? Nah, just changed his principles.

      • TightyRighty 29.2.1
        22 January 2014 at 12:59 pm

        like david cunliffe and the living wage during his tilt at labour leader? like david cunliffe dropping gst on fruit and veg during the 2011 election campaign? I’m gutted he dropped the $5000 tax free threshold though. i personally think tax free should be $15k and all the bands move up from there.

        • felix 29.2.1.1
          22 January 2014 at 6:52 pm

          I see you have your instructions from control re:- living wage.

          It’s a bit obvious when you all post the same brand new lie on the same day mate.

    • mickysavage 29.3
      22 January 2014 at 8:41 am

      Fizzy please reread the article. Key made a big song and dance about how he previously would not go into coalition with Peters. Now he is refusing to rule it out.

      See the difference?

      • Colonial Viper 29.3.1
        22 January 2014 at 8:51 am

        Aren’t they entirely consistent and congruent positions? At least on Planet Key, they seem to be.

        Time to get that 2011 soundbite out for the public…

  30. tricledrown 30
    21 January 2014 at 11:20 pm

    Fishy anal yeah right
    Gromless and Gullible sit down and have a cup of tea!

  31. tricledrown 31
    21 January 2014 at 11:36 pm

    Fisil out.
    Keys backtracking lies selling off the assets makes Peters look good.

  32. Stuart Munro 32
    22 January 2014 at 2:34 am

    All this analysis overlooks Key’s strongest natural ally: only one party will really prosper from a relationship with the ship of fools which is the doomed Key government – Ben Uffindell’s Civilian party has an unparalled opportunity to tap the richest vein of satire in the country. You thought NZ was an international laughing stock now with its air-guitar rock-star economy? Wait for term three!

  33. Paul 33
    22 January 2014 at 9:05 am

    National’s tabloid, the Herald, checking out Plan C for their corporate masters.
    This after numerous polls on plan A. – the resurrection of ACT
    and plan B – the creation of Colin Craig
    This paper is a joke and a threat to democracy.
    Roughan and Murphy will get knighthoods for their services to the kleptocracy.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11189987

  34. Puckish Rogue 34
    22 January 2014 at 9:14 am

    I don’t know what would be more amusing: Winston fighting with Dunne and Craig or Winston fighting with Norman and Harawira

    I guess the question is who do Winstsons supporters feel more comfortable with, National and its supporters or Labour and its supporters?

  35. fisiani 35
    22 January 2014 at 9:19 am

    John Key has outsmarted Labour yet again. Not hard really. In 2011 NZF were saved by the collapse of the Labour vote much of which went to NZF getting them over the 5% hurdle when polling at 3.5% just 24 hours before polling day.It was safe for Labour voters to prop up NZF because John Key had already said that he would not work with Peters.
    This time those Labour voters are less likely to plump for NZF and since147,544 voted NZF in 2011 then if NZF lose just 27,000 votes then they go from 8 seats to zero and the inevitable retirement of Winston and raison d’etre of NZF. Given that Key will ‘talk’ (note talk- not form a coalition) to NZF some of those people will assume that they will side with National and thus revert back to Labour in 2014. Some NZF votes will obviously go to the Conservatives as they have many policies in common.
    For example. Assume the NZF vote in 2014 splits
    NZF 100,000
    Labour 25,000
    Conservative 22,544

    This would equate to 47,000 extra votes for National and 58,000 to Labour after redistribution and leave the Conservatives needing just another 97,000 votes nationwide. A swing to Labour of just 11,000 votes makes no real difference but takes 8 NZF MP’s completely out of the equation. Masterful politics from John Key who like me can do the arithmetic.

    • felix 35.1
      22 January 2014 at 9:38 am

      “Masterful politics from John Key who like me can do the arithmetic.”

      Wow, that is impressive. Does Key really not know that there is no redistribution of votes in our electoral system?

      • fisiani 35.1.1
        22 January 2014 at 9:43 am

        Felix you are wrong. There is redistribution of all wasted votes for parties that fail to reach the 5% threshold or gain one electoral seat. The wasted votes are then distributed in the same proportion as votes cast for successful parties. Thus 47% to National and 33% to Labour. That is our electoral system.

    • Will@Welly 35.2
      22 January 2014 at 10:05 am

      fissi – I know a lot of retirees and ex-National Party supporters. They do not support National because of its current ideological beliefs, the asset sales were the final straw for many, but their lack of an economic plan in their first term was the kicker for many.
      Watching your children and grandchildren heading off-shore to find employment, for many, was gut-wrenching, particularly when it involved whole generations, not just one or two off-spring.
      Like a lot of Labour supporters, crossing the divide and voting for National, they could not vote for Labour, and a lot of them have found a natural home with Winston Peters, some have taken up with the Greens.
      The biggest task is to get the 800,000 odd voters who did not vote last time. And while many in Christchurch thought they were going to be better off under National and voted that way, this year expect to see a return to “traditional” voting patterns there with a swing back to the left – Bob has gone, Gerry has left a trail of broken promises.
      Key is desperate.

  36. greywarbler 36
    22 January 2014 at 9:27 am

    Winston about Dunne ‘He’s a serial leaker’. He is a moocher too, think of the song, ‘Mini the Moocher’ or a sort of Mini-Me to Key. NZ doesn’t get any advantage from having The Moocher in government.

  37. natwest 37
    22 January 2014 at 1:06 pm

    Hey guys – someone better have a word in the Messiahs ear.

    He’s got the Yeah, Nah wobbles again – done a ‘U Turn’ on his promise of a GST exemption on Fruit and Vegetables, scrapped the Tax exemption on the first $5,000 of income, and now has the temerity to announce he has no inclination to lift the minimum wage beyond $15.00 per hour.

    So much for helping the working man – thousands more defectors about to jump ship to the Melon Party.

    What a great start to the year Labour.

    • felix 37.1
      22 January 2014 at 6:56 pm

      “announce he has no inclination to lift the minimum wage beyond $15.00 per hour.”

      cite for this “announcement” please trolly heihei. In the actual words, if you’d be so kind.

  38. tricledrown 38
    22 January 2014 at 2:09 pm

    fishy anal you forgot the green partyit will get a pecentage of the votes as well.
    Currently the 2 blocks running neck tock.
    Facts right fishy .

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