National needs better lawyers
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12:06 pm, June 8th, 2022 - 68 comments
Categories: Christopher Luxon, crime, national, police, same old national -
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The civil war between the Killer Beez and the Tribesman have provided National with the chance of banging the law and order drum. And banging it they are.
This morning Christopher Luxon was reported by Radio New Zealand as follows:
A rivalry between the Tribesmen and Killer Beez gangs has spurred an increase in shootings, up to eight in a single night in Auckland. Luxon said New Zealanders were feeling unsafe.
“It’s another night, another shooting. There’s been 23 shootings in two weeks; violent crime is up 21 percent; gang members are up 40 percent. That’s the reality that New Zealanders are facing.”
He said police did not have the tools they needed to deal with the gangs.
“They want to do the job, they … have the capability to respond to crime, but they don’t have the tools.”
…
He called for the firearm prohibition orders that police wanted in 2017. The government has worked on introducing FPOs but they do not grant warrantless search powers.
“We’ve had two members bills that the government rejected around them, and they give police the powers to actually search our gang members and issue firearm prohibition orders and to seize those illegal guns,” Luxon said.
He said such a tool would allow police to search gang members and gang pads for illegal guns without a warrant.
He clearly has no idea what the current law says because the law already allows this. Section 18 of the Search and Surveillance Act 2012 allows for warrantless searches of individuals if a constable has reasonable grounds to suspect that a person is in possession or control of arms and is either in breach of the Arms Act 1983 or because of his physical or mental condition either is incapable of having proper control of the arms or may kill or cause bodily injury to any person. It is not clear if Luxon thinks the law should be even more permissive. Parliament could grant the Police the power to search anyone anywhere at any time but I am not sure this is the sort of country that most of us would then want to live in.
Luxon calling for Firearms Prohibition orders is something that the Government is addressing. The Firearms Prohibition Orders Legislation Bill is currently at Select Committee and was introduced earlier this year. Consultation on the Bill started in January 2020. Interestingly three National speakers talked during the Parliamentary debate about the need for warrantless search powers. I sense a pattern here.
To be frank the talk about expanding powers does not get us very far. The best response to crime is to have a sufficiently resourced police force. Labour’s significant increase in police numbers should be compared to National’s running down of the police numbers particularly compared to the population. At June 30 2017 there were 8,955 constabulary employees. By June 30, 2021 this number had increased to 10,219.
And the primary cause, Australia evicting all of its 501s, is not something this Government, or the previous Government, has control of. Jacinda Ardern will no doubt raise it with Anthony Albanese this week when she visits and the chances of improvement are currently the best they have ever been.
Jarrod Gilbert’s statement deserves repeating:
[S]ociologist and gangs researcher Jarrod Gilbert yesterday said New Zealand had seen this kind of gang crime before.
He said people should be wary of politicians promising to lay down the law, particularly when in opposition, adding that legislative change was unlikely to make much of a difference.
Gilbert said solutions needed to target specific problems, rather than targeting the gangs.
We do need to address the causes of crime. National appears instead to just want to stoke up fear for political advantage.
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- Release: Penny drops – but what about Seymour and Peters?Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...2 weeks ago
- Another ‘Stolen Generation’ enabled by court ruling on Waitangi Tribunal summonsTonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Budget blunder shows Nicola Willis could cut recovery fundingIt appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...2 weeks ago
- Further environmental mismanagement on the cardsThe Government’s resource management reforms will add to the heavy and ever-growing burden this Government is loading on to our environment. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: RMA changes will be a disaster for environmentThe Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour supports urgent changes to emergency management systemLabour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour calls for New Zealand to recognise PalestineThe Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Three strikes law political posturing of worst kindThe Government is bringing back a law that has little evidential backing just to look tough, Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Government cuts unbelievably target child exploitation, violent extremism, ports and airpor...Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...2 weeks ago
- Three strikes has failed before and will fail againResurrecting the archaic three-strikes legislation is an unwelcome return to a failed American-style approach to justice. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Environmental protection vital, not ‘onerous’The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...2 weeks ago
- Ferris – Three Strikes targets those ‘too brown to be white’The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt cuts doctors and nurses in hiring freezeCuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...3 weeks ago
- Fast-track submissions period must be extendedThe Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Progress on climate will be undone by GovtNew Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...3 weeks ago
- NZ – European Union ties more critical than ever
Your Excellency Ambassador Meredith, Members of the Diplomatic Corps and Ambassadors from European Union Member States, Ministerial colleagues, Members of Parliament, and other distinguished guests, Thank you everyone for joining us. Ladies and gentlemen - In diplomacy, we often speak of ‘close’ and ‘long-standing’ relations. ...13 hours ago - Therapeutic Products Act to be repealedThe Therapeutic Products Act (TPA) will be repealed this year so that a better regime can be put in place to provide New Zealanders safe and timely access to medicines, medical devices and health products, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello announced today. “The medicines and products we are talking about ...16 hours ago
- Decisions on Wellington City Council’s District PlanThe Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop, today released his decision on twenty recommendations referred to him by the Wellington City Council relating to its Intensification Planning Instrument, after the Council rejected those recommendations of the Independent Hearings Panel and made alternative recommendations. “Wellington notified its District Plan on ...18 hours ago
- Rape Awareness Week: Government committed to action on sexual violenceRape Awareness Week (6-10 May) is an important opportunity to acknowledge the continued effort required by government and communities to ensure that all New Zealanders can live free from violence, say Ministers Karen Chhour and Louise Upston. “With 1 in 3 women and 1 in 8 men experiencing sexual violence ...19 hours ago
- Smarter lunch programme feeds more, costs lessAssociate Education Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government will be delivering a more efficient Healthy School Lunches Programme, saving taxpayers approximately $107 million a year compared to how Labour funded it, by embracing innovation and commercial expertise. “We are delivering on our commitment to treat taxpayers’ money ...20 hours ago
- Report provides insights into marine recoveryNew research on the impacts of extreme weather on coastal marine habitats in Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay will help fishery managers plan for and respond to any future events, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. A report released today on research by Niwa on behalf of Fisheries New Zealand ...21 hours ago
- NZ to send political delegation to the PacificDeputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will lead a broad political delegation on a five-stop Pacific tour next week to strengthen New Zealand’s engagement with the region. The delegation will visit Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Tuvalu. “New Zealand has deep and ...21 hours ago
- Low gas production threatens energy securityThere has been a material decline in gas production according to figures released today by the Gas Industry Co. Figures released by the Gas Industry Company show that there was a 12.5 per cent reduction in gas production during 2023, and a 27.8 per cent reduction in gas production in the ...1 day ago
- Defence industry talent, commitment recognisedDefence Minister Judith Collins tonight announced the recipients of the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for Industry, saying they all contribute to New Zealanders’ security and wellbeing. “Congratulations to this year’s recipients, whose innovative products and services play a critical role in the delivery of New Zealand’s defence capabilities, ...1 day ago
- Speech to the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for IndustryWelcome to you all - it is a pleasure to be here this evening.I would like to start by thanking Greg Lowe, Chair of the New Zealand Defence Industry Advisory Council, for co-hosting this reception with me. This evening is about recognising businesses from across New Zealand and overseas who in ...1 day ago
- Speech to the Sixth Annual New Zealand Government Data SummitIt is a pleasure to be speaking to you as the Minister for Digitising Government. I would like to thank Akolade for the invitation to address this Summit, and to acknowledge the great effort you are making to grow New Zealand’s digital future. Today, we stand at the cusp of ...2 days ago
- Ceasefire agreement needed now: PetersNew Zealand is urging both Israel and Hamas to agree to an immediate ceasefire to avoid the further humanitarian catastrophe that military action in Rafah would unleash, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The immense suffering in Gaza cannot be allowed to worsen further. Both sides have a responsibility to ...2 days ago
- Daily school attendance data now availableA new online data dashboard released today as part of the Government’s school attendance action plan makes more timely daily attendance data available to the public and parents, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. The interactive dashboard will be updated once a week to show a national average of how ...2 days ago
- Ambassador to United States appointedForeign Minister Winston Peters has announced Rosemary Banks will be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States of America. “Our relationship with the United States is crucial for New Zealand in strategic, security and economic terms,” Mr Peters says. “New Zealand and the United States have a ...2 days ago
- New permit proposed for recreational gold miningThe Government is considering creating a new tier of minerals permitting that will make it easier for hobby miners to prospect for gold. “New Zealand was built on gold, it’s in our DNA. Our gold deposits, particularly in regions such as Otago and the West Coast have always attracted fortune-hunters. ...2 days ago
- NZ and the UAE launch FTA negotiationsMinister for Trade Todd McClay today announced that New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA). Minister McClay met with his counterpart UAE Trade Minister Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi in Dubai, where they announced the launch of negotiations on a ...2 days ago
- New Zealand Sign Language Week an opportunity for anyone to signNew Zealand Sign Language Week is an excellent opportunity for all Kiwis to give the language a go, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. This week (May 6 to 12) is New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL) Week. The theme is “an Aotearoa where anyone can sign anywhere” and aims to ...3 days ago
- Next stop NASA for New Zealand studentsSix tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...3 days ago
- $1.9 billion investment to keep NZ safe from crimeNew Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...3 days ago
- OECD reinforces need to control spendingThe OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. ...3 days ago
- Agreement delivers Local Water Done Well for AucklandThe Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...4 days ago
- Gaza and the Pacific on the agenda with GermanyForeign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...5 days ago
- Decision allows for housing growth in Western Bay of PlentyThe Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...6 days ago
- Speech to New Zealand China CouncilThank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...6 days ago
- Modern insurance law will protect Kiwi householdsThe Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...7 days ago
- Government recommits to equal payThe coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...7 days ago
- Transforming how our children learn to readStructured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...7 days ago
- NZ not backing down in Canada dairy disputeTrade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...7 days ago
- Stronger oversight for our most vulnerable childrenThe rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...7 days ago
- Streamlining Building Consent ChangesThe Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...1 week ago
- Minister acknowledges passing of Sir Robert Martin (KNZM)New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...1 week ago
- Speech to New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Parliament – Annual Lecture: Challenges ...Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...1 week ago
- Accelerating airport security linesFrom today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...1 week ago
- Community hui to talk about kina barrensPeople with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...1 week ago
- Kiwi exporters win as NZ-EU FTA enters into forceKiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...1 week ago
- Mining resurgence a welcome signThere are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...1 week ago
- Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill passes first readingThe return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...1 week ago
- Government to boost public EV charging networkEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...1 week ago
- Residential Property Managers Bill to not progressThe coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...1 week ago
- Independent review into disability support servicesThe Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...1 week ago
- Book of the Week: Ashleigh Young on an extinction event
“Show us the bird,” I found myself muttering at times while reading Hard by the Cloud House by Peter Walker, a deeply thoughtful, often hilarious, at times rambling – but somehow delightfully so – search for the story of a big bird. But not just any bird: the bird. This ...1 hour ago - A ‘sponge city’ may be your home in 2050
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jack Marley, Environment + Energy Editor, UK edition DPVUE .images/Shutterstock Your home was probably designed for a climate that no longer exists. As long as humanity continues to burn fossil fuel, padding the heat-trapping blanket of gases in Earth’s atmosphere, the ...1 hour ago - Tikanga is the first law of Aotearoa
A senior lawyer has filed a complaint about tikanga becoming a required law school module. Law lecturer Carwyn Jones explains what he’s getting wrong. “…the first law of Aotearoa, a law that served the needs of tangata whenua for a thousand years before the arrival of tauiwi.” – Ani Mikaere ...2 hours ago - ‘Your agency is taken away’: When endometriosis treatment changes without your consentIn 2019, an Auckland woman woke up from surgery to find that she had undergone a treatment she didn’t consent to. She tells Alex Casey about her experience. From her very first period at the age of 14, Laura experienced “debilitating” levels of pain that forced her to withdraw from ...2 hours ago
- China challenges must be managed if opportunities are to be sustainedOpinion: A continuation of the previous Labour government’s ‘China-plus’ diversification strategy The post China challenges must be managed if opportunities are to be sustained appeared first on Newsroom. ...2 hours ago
- IRD chases decades-old student debt for woman who never went to universityWhen Clara Owen first received a debt notice from Inland Revenue in 2018 she wondered if it was a scam The post IRD chases decades-old student debt for woman who never went to university appeared first on Newsroom. ...2 hours ago
- Green shoots prunedComment: Concerns about the state of the economy are creeping up to the top of firms’ list of challenges. That’s evident in both surveys and the tone of our recent client discussions. Skimming the past few weeks of eco-news, it’s not hard to see why. – Retail card spending fell ...2 hours ago
- Daily crossword, Thursday 9 MayThe post Daily crossword, Thursday 9 May appeared first on Newsroom. ...2 hours ago
- How the Greens could be contendersOpinion: Could former co-leader James Shaw still make a difference to working with National? The post How the Greens could be contenders appeared first on Newsroom. ...2 hours ago
- The ‘war on drugs’ is really a ‘war on people who use drugs’ – and it doesn’t workOpinion: What if we got rid of our existing drug laws and replaced them with a new law that legalised and carefully regulated all psychoactive substances, from cannabis to MDMA, methamphetamine and LSD to magic mushrooms? And which also included legal drugs such as alcohol and nicotine. “Wow,” you might ...2 hours ago
- David Seymour – not the associate education minister you expectedAnalysis: David Seymour’s school lunches programme goes further than Labour’s The post David Seymour – not the associate education minister you expected appeared first on Newsroom. ...2 hours ago
- Wayne Brown’s port deal seeks to end five years of dramaSeeking a mandated shift for Port of Auckland before he was mayor, Wayne Brown has tried demanding huge returns and leasing operations The post Wayne Brown’s port deal seeks to end five years of drama appeared first on Newsroom. ...2 hours ago
- DoC set to cut permanent jobs on Chatham IslandsIn the gloom following director-general Al Morrison’s job cuts in 2013, the Department of Conservation restructured its operations arm. Eleven conservancy districts were whittled into six new “conservation delivery” regions, under which the Rēkohu/Wharekauri/Chatham Islands area, comprising 40 scattered islands more than 800km east of Christchurch, was tethered to the ...2 hours ago
- Levels of litigation rising with economic hardshipOne of th e country’s top litigation lawyers says New Zealand is seeing a lift in court action between companies. Chapman Tripp partner Justin Graham, who oversees a team of around 80 litigation specialists, says the courts are now so log-jammed that it’s taking over two years to get cases ...2 hours ago
- Newsroom daily quiz, Thursday 9 MayLoading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A,DIV,A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp'); Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions. The post Newsroom daily quiz, Thursday 9 May appeared first on Newsroom. ...2 hours ago
- Gas is good until 2050 and beyond, under Albanese gas strategySource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The Albanese government is talking up the crucial role of gas as a transition fuel “through to 2050 and beyond”. In a gas strategy to be released on Thursday, the government envisages the fuel’s ...6 hours ago
- Politics with Michelle Grattan: James Paterson on prospects for passage of the government’s deport...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Next week the government will again next try to get its legislation through to deal with non-citizens who won’t cooperate with efforts to deport them. The bill, which the opposition and crossbench refused to rush ...11 hours ago
- NZCTU Launch Project To Set Out Alternative Vision For Aotearoa
A long-term project that will set out an alternative vision for Aotearoa that looks beyond the narrow confines of the policy straight jacket adopted by successive governments. ...13 hours ago - Yes, Australia’s big supermarkets have been price gouging. But fixing the problem won’t be easySource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bree Hurst, Associate Professor, Faculty of Business and Law, QUT, Queensland University of Technology TK Kurikawa/Shutterstock A much-awaited report into Coles and Woolworths has found what many customers have long believed – Australia’s big supermarkets engage in price gouging. What started ...13 hours ago
- The government wanted to avoid an inquiry into its deportation bill. Given the findings, it’s easy...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Ghezelbash, Associate Professor and Deputy Director, Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, UNSW Law & Justice, UNSW Sydney The Albanese government wanted to avoid an inquiry into its migration amendment bill. The report, handed down yesterday by a senate committee that ...13 hours ago
- Senate report on lobbying passes the buck on improving transparency or legislationSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joo-Cheong Tham, Professor, Melbourne Law School, The University of Melbourne Lobbying is at the heart of government. Who has access to and influence over key government officials shapes the decisions governments make – and how they make them. The ability to influence ...13 hours ago
- Ngāti Toa rallies against Fast Track Approvals Bill
Iwi would not allow the government to degrade its whenua, moana or awa for the purpose of urban development, ministers were told. ...14 hours ago - Free school lunches: Labour MP apologises over 'offensive' Hamas tweet to SeymourDuncan Webb had queried if the ACT leader did not like hummus because it is too close to Hamas. ...14 hours ago
- Australia’s Eurovision entry this year is the first to sing in First Nations language: meet Electr...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Myfany Turpin, Associate Professor, Ethnomusicology, Linguistics and Ethnobiology, University of Sydney The act representing Australia at this year’s Eurovision contest has sadly not qualified for the grand final. Yet for Zaachariaha Fielding and Michael Ross, the duo that makes up Electric Fields, ...15 hours ago
- Labour claims win as govt commits to new free school lunches modelThe Labour Party is claiming a win for its campaign that the government commit to keeping and funding free school lunches. ...15 hours ago
- A definitive list of woke and non-woke foodsIn announcing changes to the school lunches programme, David Seymour said kids would no longer be served ‘woke’ foods. To clear up any confusion, The Spinoff has compiled a guide to the wokeness levels of some common food items. Apple = NOT WOKE Avocado = WOKE Avocado, smashed = EVEN ...16 hours ago
- Future of the planet more important than the Greens survival, former co-leader James Shaw saysFormer Green Party co-leader James Shaw calls out tribalism and hyper-partisanship - including in his own party. ...16 hours ago
- Fourth urgent inquiry by the Waitangi Tribunal, this time on Māori wardsThe Tribunal is conducting another urgent inquiry into plans to require councils to hold a binding referendum on Māori wards. ...16 hours ago
- NCSC Briefs IPAC Representatives On Response To Malicious Cyber ActivityThe Minister Responsible for GCSB and the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security have been notified of this review, and have been provided a finalised Terms of Reference. ...17 hours ago
- How is China being taught at Australian universities? And why does this matter? Here’s what our re...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Minglu Chen, Senior Lecturer, Government and International Relations, University of Sydney Robert Way/Shutterstock As the past few years have illustrated so clearly, the Australia-China relationship is complicated. As such, it is crucial for Australians to develop a more nuanced understanding of ...17 hours ago
- Saving the Mary River turtle: how the people of Tiaro rallied behind an iconic speciesSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mariana Campbell, Research Lecturer, Conservation, Charles Darwin University Marilyn Connell Australian freshwater turtles are facing an alarming trend. Almost half of these species are listed as vulnerable, endangered or critically endangered. The Mary River turtle (Elusor macrurus) is one of Australia’s ...17 hours ago
- Why are algorithms called algorithms? A brief history of the Persian polymath you’ve likely never ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Debbie Passey, Digital Health Research Fellow, The University of Melbourne Algorithms have become integral to our lives. From social media apps to Netflix, algorithms learn your preferences and prioritise the content you are shown. Google Maps and artificial intelligence are nothing without ...17 hours ago
- Neuroaffirming care values the strengths and differences of autistic people, those with ADHD or othe...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Josephine Barbaro, Associate Professor, Principal Research Fellow, Psychologist, La Trobe University Unsplash We’ve come a long way in terms of understanding that everyone thinks, interacts and experiences the world differently. In the past, autistic people, people with attention deficit hyperactive disorder ...17 hours ago
- ‘Reckless’ kina devaluation spells disaster for PNG, says NomanePNG Post-Courier Papua New Guinea’s deputy opposition leader James Nomane has accused the government of “reckless economic management” that has forced devaluation to manage loan repayments in foreign currency and placate the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Prime Minister James Marape “must stop lying to the people of Papua New Guinea”, ...17 hours ago
- Modernising Census – Stats NZFrom today, members of the public can have their say on what Aotearoa New Zealand’s census could look like in the future. ...17 hours ago
- ‘I do love a good funnysad novel’: Jane Arthur on her favourite booksWelcome to The Spinoff Bookseller Confessional, in which we get to know Aotearoa’s booksellers. This week: Jane Arthur, author of Brown Bird, and former bookseller at Good Books. The book I wish I’d written I have been working on not comparing myself to others. On accepting that what I can ...17 hours ago
- RMA Minister rejects Wellington council's bid to remove heritage protections from buildingsCouncil did not provide sufficient evidence to support its reasons for removing the 10 buildings from the Heritage schedule, Chris Bishop says. ...18 hours ago
- War for Wellington: Minister approves sweeping upzoning, rejects heritage changesThe final decision on the Wellington District Plan makes it official: High-density housing is legal across most of Wellington. Housing minister Chris Bishop has announced his decision on the Wellington District Plan, approving a series of amendments to radically upzone most of Wellington, allowing tens of thousands of new townhouses ...18 hours ago
- Bryce Edwards Analysis – Following the political moneyAnalysis by Dr Bryce Edwards – Democracy Project (https://democracyproject.nz) Political scientist, Dr Bryce Edwards. “Follow the money” is the classic directive to journalists trying to understand where power and influence lie in society. In terms of uncovering who influences various New Zealand political parties and governments, it therefore pays to ...19 hours ago
- Free school lunches: Year 7 students and above to shift to alternative modelA new interim delivery model will kick in next year to allow time for a full redesign of the scheme before any more money is dedicated. ...19 hours ago
- Rafah ‘last place of safety’ in Gaza, UN aid boss warnsRNZ News As Israel presses ahead with strikes in Rafah and seizing the Rafah crossing from Egypt, aid agencies are sounding the alarm of a “catastrophic humanitarian situation”. Rafah was “significant” because it was the only part in Gaza that had not been terribly damaged by the conflict, United Nations ...19 hours ago
- Foreign Affairs minister to lead Pacific delegationThe Foreign Affairs minister is heading on a five-stop Pacific tour, which he says will strengthen New Zealand's engagement in the region. ...19 hours ago
- Why we’re fighting to save Te Huia, the Hamilton-Auckland trainWith funding set to be scrapped for the Hamilton-Auckland commuter train, Te Huia enthusiast Georgie Dansey argues for it to be thrown a lifeline. It’s 5.45am and the chain of my crappy old bike falls off slugging up the one hill in Hamilton. I contemplate yeeting the bike into the ...19 hours ago
- Greens Call On Government To Keep Same-day Election Enrolment And VotingOn Radio New Zealand this morning, the Justice Minister stated the Government was considering ending election day enrolments. ...19 hours ago
- Many people are feeling ecological grief. How can we help those whose work puts them at risk?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Cooke, Honorary Fellow, School of the Environment, The University of Queensland We feel ecological grief when we lose places, species or ecosystems we value and love. These losses are a growing threat to mental health and wellbeing globally. We all see ...20 hours ago
- Revitalizing Toronto’s downtown core after COVID-19 greatly benefits the city and the regionSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shauna Brail, Associate Professor, Institute for Management & Innovation, University of Toronto A shift to hybrid and remote work continues to affect worker presence in Toronto’s downtown. (Shutterstock) Downtown Toronto, the core of Canada’s largest city, continues to reel from the lingering ...20 hours ago
- Government quiet on costs, building plan for Waikato prison expansionThe extra beds would take longer than the four-years covered in this week's budget announcement to deliver, the Corrections Minister told RNZ. ...20 hours ago
- Chief Electoral Officer Needs To Fall On His SwordResponding to an Auditor-General's report slamming failures in the administration of the 2023 General Election, Taxpayers’ Union Policy and Public Affairs Manager, James Ross, said: ...20 hours ago
- How many productivity apps do I have to use to become more productive?Productivity apps now make up a big chunk of the software market. But do they work? And why do they all have AI integrations? Despite being firmly on the record as a physical planner fan, I sometimes dream of something better than my pretty diary and its scrawled, ugly, interior ...21 hours ago
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Would it be too cynical for me to suggest the more rabid Adern haters would stoke this gun violence going by driving around Auckland popping off a few random shots from time to time.
False flag
ISTR that Ardern has always said that we are not playing tit-for-tat over the 501s, but it really is time that we returned the favour and started deporting miscreant Aussies
If the issue is the causes of crime how come violent crime is increasing when inequality and poverty is supposedly falling?
What other causes of crime might there be, apart from inequality and poverty?
What evidence do you have that these latter are actually falling, 'supposedly'?
“Despite Covid-19 causing the greatest global economic downturn since the Great Depression the Government has delivered reductions in child poverty across all nine measures,” Arden, who is the minister for child poverty reduction, said in a statement.
Over the past four years, this Government’s policies have reduced all nine official measures of child poverty compared to the baseline year. Since coming into Government we have lifted 18,000 children out of material hardship and 43,300 fewer children are in poverty since 2017/18. Our main benefit increases announced in Budget 21 are projected to lift a further 33,000 children out poverty.
Is she right or wrong?
Took a while for Nationals destruction of education to take effect on outcomes.
It will similarly take a while, for an improvement on child poverty, to effect crime rates.
Only in Hosking land does things work instantly.
How long will it take for the crime stats to start dropping? What is the cause/effect time frame?
Show us if there really is a rise, or just a blip in a longer term decline in crime rates, of certain types of crime, accentuated by covid and 501's?
Do you really think a decrease in poverty for children, who are mostly under the age that commit crimes, is going to show up in crime rates, before that cohort gets to an age to commit crimes. Most of the current crop of young criminals, would have been growing up during National's "living in cars'" era. Very youngest are 11 or 12. Most are mid to late teens, early twenties, not 4 1/2.
The effects of reduction in crime policies now, can be expected to start showing in 5 to 20 years.
Show us if there really is a rise,
Done.
"The effects of reduction in crime policies now, can be expected to start showing in 5 to 20 years."
What are these 'reduction in crime' policies you speak of?
Oh, FFS. We've been talking about them.
Well poverty and inequality have been mentioned. If you're suggesting these are the issues that are the cause of crime, and crime won't come down until they are addressed, then you need to have a chat to Poto Williams.
Gosman was the one who suggested poverty and inequality. I asked him the questions. What other causes and where is the evidence?
Ah, things take a long time to have an impact. How long do you reckon a Mother of All Budgets will go 30ish years down the track?
Earlier in the week I came across a pile of stuff from the late 1980s and early 1990 to do with education. I'd suggested that for all the restructuring and upheaval of schooling that was to happen and was happening, that there was one critical question: "How will children's learning be improved?"
(Similarly, some years later when it was decided that there were problems with learning, the question was about whether National Standards was The Answer. Recent international results and the dismay provide a line on whether the hopes were realised.)
So the real biding solutions to the gang problem? Taking their patches off them? It seems the answer to all the cliffs we direct people to is to have more and more ambulances at the bottom. Jesus wept.
I sympathise, Peter.
"What other causes and where is the evidence?"
There are many causes of crime, and the right and left argue across each other in an effort to justify their particular policy prescription. There's also the issue of personal responsibility – to what extent can or should we lay blame for our own bad decisions on society more broadly. In NZ's specific context, I believe gangs are a big factor, as is substance abuse and the totally inadequate way we deal with mental illness. None of this isn’t easy, but we have to admit we have a problem before we can try to solve it.
Show us the stats that violent crime has been increasing.
Crime Snapshot | New Zealand Police
Based on the data from 1 April 2021 through 31 March 2022, violent crime (as defined by the Police) has risen from 30,342 to 31,665 across NZ, a rise of around 4.5%.
For the year ended 31 March 2021, there was increase of 3.3%.
For the year ended 31 March 2020, there was an increase of around 5%.
Despite claims NZ's policing is too 'woke', crime rates are largely static — and even declining (theconversation.com)
The change in rates is not unusual. There have been bigger year on year changes in crime rates in the past.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/NZL/new-zealand/crime-rate-statistics
So your response to actual Police data is an opinion piece that looks at data that is 2 years old. Seriously?
PS – Gosman and Incognito specifically referred to ‘violent’ crime, which is the data set I quoted. Nevertheless, you have used data that is well out of date. Total crime for the year to 31 March 2022 was up by nearly 20% (205,752 to 246,657).
Which is relevant to assessing it is a trend, or a blip.
And to show that a 4.5% swing is actually not unusual.
And evidence of an overall longer term decline in crime rates.
Which shows that National’s carefully nurtured BS about “crime out of control” is fiction.
2015 had a 10.5 % increase in the murder homicide rate. From a 7.5% decrease the year before. I betcha National wasn’t going on about “crime out of control” then.
Three consecutive years of increases is not a 'blip'.
Make that 4. In the year to 31 March 2019, violent crime went up 10%.\
Remember this is violent crime. You know, assault, sexual assault, abductions. I'll let some of the victims know you think it's just a blip, I'm sure they'll feel so much better.
What would you tell the victims in 2015? Doesn't matter because it would have embarrassed National?
I'd tell them we need better solutions to crime. The same thing I'd be telling them now.
In reality you wouldn't have given a stuff.
Because like National now, you couldn't care less about crime victims, except as something to attack Labour Greens over.
"In reality you wouldn't have given a stuff."
In reality I have a daughter who has been a recent victim of crime. In reality I volunteer with a community organisation that deals with youth victims of crime. In reality I support solutions that get real results, and far quicker than 'start showing in 5-20 years'.
"In reality" there are buggerrall solutions that are instant.
Which is why those who pretend there can be, are blowing smoke.
As you well know if you have been involved in the area.
By the way my ex apprentices, that were gang based and involved in crime, when they started with us, have been gainfully employed, and on the straight and narrow for years.
What a bit of care and attention can do.
"By the way my ex apprentices, that were gang based and involved in crime, when they started with us, have been gainfully employed, and on the straight and narrow for years."
Yep, I’ve seen the same outcomes in the workplace and on marae. Well done.
Thank you, so informative.
From 1 June 2021 to 31 May 2022, i.e. the most recent 12-month period, violent crime went down from 32,836 to 28,722; it dropped in all 4 categories of violent crime.
https://www.police.govt.nz/crime-snapshot-0
You love to use quote & stats that suit your narrative, don’t you?
https://www.police.govt.nz/sites/default/files/publications/crime-at-a-glance-dec2020.pdf
Gosman and you should change your tune before I take the wind out it
You've cherry picked to get the result you wanted. The data set you've nicely cajoled is barely 10 days old. You do know the problem with that, right?
Using consistent year end dates, and not cherry picking, the data shows a steady increase in violent crime:
For the year ended 31 March 2022, violent crime (as defined by the Police) has risen from 30,342 to 31,665 across NZ, a rise of around 4.5%.
For the year ended 31 March 2021, there was increase of 3.3%.
For the year ended 31 March 2020, there was an increase of around 5%.
For the year ended 31 March 2019, there was an increase of 10%.
The wind is coming from you.
Holding a mirror up to you to reflect back your own behaviour of selective quoting and cherry-picking data to suit your narrative but which don’t actually constitute a decent argument (aka variations on a theme). You have been doing this here for a long time, too long.
It is quite common to use the most recent data available. Isn’t it the current meme that violent crime has recently gone up 'explosively' and 'exponentially'? Can’t see it in the data from NZ Police, can you? Perhaps the cops are a little behind on their paperwork and it will filter through next month?
Arguably, it is the most objective to use the most recent period and up to the present day if possible, and it is possible. You failed on that point. You also failed to show the huge fluctuations in the data, which is why carefully selecting the date periods can make such an apparent big difference. Of course, taking your comments at face value one would expect a straight steep line upwards over the last 2.33 years, but the reality is quite different, isn’t it, as is clearly shown in the graph in the link.
You can always try to find other data sets that show what you want to show. If you’re desperate enough. Ironically, I asked Gosman, not you, and you’re letting the air escape.
Your tyres have fully deflated.
You used data from 2020, and from a random month without any longer term historical comparisons. I used data over a succession of years for consistent time periods that shows a clear pattern. I'll leave others to decide who is cherry picking.
Meanwhile:
[deleted]
The graph in the link to NZ Police website covers all 4 categories of violent crime since 1 January 2020. I’ll leave others to decide who is cherry picking and whether crime is increasing as you imply.
Meanwhile, you’re in Pre-Moderation awaiting your retraction and apology.
Gypsy do you know what happens when more police are on the beat? The crime rate goes up. Also when you create new offences, as this Government has, the crime rate goes up.
Incognito has pointed out to you the flaws in your argument. Holding magically to certain data and saying that it is conclusive proof that everything is bad does not wash.
Best to avoid inconvenient data and only talk about the convenient data eh?
…and all crime has risen from 203,813 at March 2018 to 246,657 at March 2022, an increase in 4 years of 21%.
But there's no problem, eh?
(and you do know we’re in 2022, right?)
[Putting words in my mouth now?
Point to my comment under this Post where I said or even implied that there’s no problem with violent crime or even just crime in general in NZ. Or correct & apologise. Or take a week off. You’re in Pre-Moderation until you respond – Incognito]
Mod note
I think your just a bit sensitive at the moment. Completely understandable.
Just hungry, but dinner is almost ready.
Ah, I understand. Enjoy. I didn't ,mean to imply YOU didn't think there was a problem btw. It was a general observation about what seems to me to be the level of denial coming out of government. Still, I'll take my medicine. See you in a week.
Not much of an apology, but I’ll take it anyway because dinner was nice and so is the coffee.
When discussing crime data, or any data for that matter, whether between Government, MSM, or Opposition, or here on TS and when one claims an increase or decrease or whatever, they have to back it up, with links and a commentary + explanation. Disagreeing about a change over time doesn’t mean stating or even believing that there’s no problem. For example, a high baseline with no change is a problem, while a low baseline with no change is much less or no problem at all.
So far, nobody here today has shown conclusively that violent crime in NZ is increasing, at least not over the last 2.33 years since 1 January 2020 according to the NZ Police data that you linked to.
"So far, nobody here today has shown conclusively that violent crime in NZ is increasing, at least not over the last 2.33 years since 1 January 2020 according to the NZ Police data that you linked to."
I’m not quite sure why you’re using 1 January 2020 as a starting point? The link I provided goes back years before that, and the data I listed goes back to 2018.
Edit – I’m curious about the answer to that because it may help explain your other comments.
Why don’t you go to your own link on the NZ Police website, create the graph (Crime type by Month) you want there, starting before 1 Jan 2020, copy it, and paste/post it here? Good luck, because in my experience it doesn’t go back further than 1 Jan 2020 and I’d happily go back further 😉 However, I think that period is a good indication of the violent crimes over recent time and it shows no increase (or decrease) over that period to present day, pretty much, contrary to Gosman’s comment and your claims.
"Why don’t you go to your own link on the NZ Police website, create the graph (Crime type by Month) you want there, starting before 1 Jan 2020, copy it, and paste/post it here? "
The actual data (I never mentioned a graph) is available at the link I provided going back before Jan 2020 (to 2017) by selecting the period beside "reported from"/"to". That's the source of the data I quoted above and it's very easy to access. The graph you're looking at is a monthly rest. You can create any trend you like based on when you start the graph. Start the graph at April 2020 and the graph shows a clear incline, but that too would be misleading.
I quote from the footnote: "Data contained within this report are based on information recorded in the Police dynamic operational database as the 8th of the preceding month. Changes made to source data after this date will not be reflected in this report. For this reason, comparisons between monthly releases should be treated with caution."
One reason for the increase in violent crime was the introduction of strangulation as a new serious offence. Not sure how much impact that has had, but other police reports note as a factor.
what planet do you live on?
The statistical issues have been covered by others – but we know that perception does not always follow reality. Active disinformation is of course rife, and some believe carefully planned through convenient cut-outs like the Taxpayer Union, Counterpoint and others – with National then 'responding' with claims that New Zealanders do not feel safe.
Many will recall similar outcries against the 'surge in burglaries' years ago – an invented crisis is all that is needed . . .
”The civil war between the Killer Beez and the Tribesman have provided National with the chance of banging the law and order drum. And banging it they are.”
That is only part of the story, Mickey. You left out crime in the rest of the country.
''To be frank the talk about expanding powers does not get us very far. The best response to crime is to have a sufficiently resourced police force.''
True.` And I would add a Commissioner who is respected by his front line, and a police minister who is on top of her ministerial role.
''[S]ociologist and gangs researcher Jarrod Gilbert yesterday said New Zealand had seen this kind of gang crime before. Gilbert said solutions needed to target specific problems, rather than targeting the gangs.''
Now, more than ever, is the time to ignore Jarrod Gilbert and people like that perpetual excuse monger, Dennis O'Reilly. That Gilbert believes we have seen this type of gang crime before is disingenuous. We have never seen it on this scale, nor have we seen the crime wave that's garden variety crime and violence.
That said, National deserves the serve they received.
.
Any ideas, Mickey?
Show us the stats.
No need. I don't have any stats, because I don't need them. You are floundering. You don't need stats for everything. Ram raids and shootings nearly ever night, up and down the country. I have lived in this country for most of my life, along with many other people. I know we have never had things this bad.
I nearly observe ''a domestic'' every time I go to the supermarket. That never used to happen. Of course, you want see those incidents registered in official crime figures.
[Show us your stats – Incognito]
Bullshit, Blade. I have lived in this country longer than you have, and I too have read of these things in the sensational press. And there does appear to be a temporary spate. But:
You say, " I have lived in this country for most of my life, along with many other people. I know we have never had things this bad." Me too, and I am calling BULLSHIT. I too go into the supermarket every day, and I have NEVER seen any 'domestic' nearly every time. In fact, I recall none at all.
Many of us in this country are NOT worse off than before. Stop making shit up and pretending to have any concern. You are a troll.
You are making up this rubbish for your silly political purposes. You are full of rubbish. Please go find a better pastime.
''Bullshit, Blade. I have lived in this country longer than you have, and I too have read of these things in the sensational press. And there does appear to be a temporary spate. But: I know we have never had things this bad." Me too, and I am calling BULLSHIT.
''Many of us in this country are NOT worse off than before. Stop making shit up and pretending to have any concern. You are a troll.''
No, I really care about victims. Not criminals or white folk living in nice areas pontificating about things they no nothing about. Although you will note of late, eye witnesses saying'' We have never had this type of thing happen in our neighbourhood before.
Quote:
''Aucklanders are regularly confronted with gun violence, organised crime, and rising gang tensions. One of the country’s top police officers says he’s seeing things escalate like he has never seen before.''
"It's not just here, it's everywhere", said a woman who saw police swarm her neighbourhood after a man was shot dead in West Auckland a day later.''
https://www.1news.co.nz/2021/12/26/gangs-and-guns-seeing-stuff-here-that-you-have-never-seen-before/
''You are making up this rubbish for your silly political purposes. You are full of rubbish. Please go find a better pastime.''
Please stop the rhetoric…rhetoric…rhetoric! The day you post anything as half as good as my post above, may be the day I take you seriously. You are just another blind ideologue who doesn't mind the body count and ruined lives as long as your political beliefs remain intact.
Now, if you will excuse me, I have to reply to Weka before I'm put down for maybe 2months.
From 2005 to 2021 (17 years) there have been a total of 16,816 Firearms-related offences recorded by NZ Police. That means on average 2.7 offences every day. That means some days there won’t be any and other days there may be quite a few. Over the last 17 years.
You can check this for yourself: https://www.police.govt.nz/sites/default/files/publications/firearms-information-summary-1apr2022.xlsx.
The first 3 months (I assume) of 2022 don’t show a major increase in recorded Firearms-related offences, but you apparently know something more, so put up or shut up.
AFAIK, ram raids are apparently done mostly by youths under 15 years of age. These are presumably not the ‘501’ deportees from Australia mentioned in the OP who are held responsible for the increase in gang crime. But I don’t know this and you apparently do, so put up or shut up.
I don’t know what happens in your hood and in your supermarket. I live in an ‘interesting’ area and have not noticed a change, but there are definitely all sorts of shit happening, sometimes really bad shit.
The pandemic, other global shit (e.g. Russian invasion), and inflation & cost-of-living increases have been and are taking a huge toll and affecting people’s mental state. This means that more shit happens.
You can argue your opinions, but not your facts. Especially if one can point to stats, for example, that don’t support your assertions or even contradict them.
I am now moderating you.
I told you before, I don't need stats because they aren't reflecting the reality happening in the real world. To have stats means you have to have data input. When you don't have data input and crime isn't reported as is the case at the moment, the stats don't match up.
Case in point:
https://www.justice.govt.nz/about/news-and-media/media-releases/nzs-largest-crime-survey-shows-burglaries-on-the-decline/
As talkback has reported – and you yourself may know one person who hasn't reported a crime- burglaries aren't being reported. In many cases the police don't even turn up according to some callers. So how are these crimes declining. Let's see:
“This unique survey has been running since 2018,” says Tim Hampton. “This drawn on around 23,500 interviews with randomly selected New Zealanders about their experiences of crime. For the first time, we are able to compare the data over three years and we can now see trends in crime.”
So, in other words a random selection and crap shoot. If they had advertised for people who haven't reported a crime I would have no trouble accepting the results if the data showed a decline in crime overall. I don't know the statistical odds of picking up non reported crime in a random sweep and then comparing that data with three random sweeps…and getting a result?
Then there's this.
“The Survey provides us with unique evidence because three quarters of crime incidents are not reported to the Police and therefore not recorded in the administrative data”, says Tim Hampton.''
But it's still a random sweep and I don't know how it is collated. Therefore I stick to what my eyes, talkback and tv tells me. The survey includes people 15 years old and above.
See notes to editor at bottom of the article.
"As talkback has reported".
"As I have seen".
Real "evidence based" sources you have there!
Yep. And backed up.
“The Survey provides us with unique evidence because three quarters of crime incidents are not reported to the Police and therefore not recorded in the administrative data”, says Tim Hampton.''
And to be honest, although that backs up my perceptions and OPINIONS, even I have trouble believing that figure. If true, things are way worse then I have believed.
What about this:
So there were weaknesses with a previous survey. I believe there are weaknesses with latest survey and will not be surprised if it’s tweaked again in the future.
BTW- any reasons debate to be had from you? Of course not – just a sound bite and a little denigration.
Anyone who has been around a while would be cautious about using the statement, “The Survey provides us with unique evidence because three quarters of crime incidents are not reported to the Police and therefore not recorded in the administrative data.” to suggest there has been a significant increase in crime. One doesn't need to think too deeply to realise that since the data has not been collected in the same way by past surveys, to make anything of it is a nonsense. It was also noticeable a number of years ago that the incidence of burglaries increased dramatically when insurance companies would only accept claims when a Police report had been lodged. When writing reports for the Courts at the time, it was notable that property loss claims recorded significant items that the burglars denied having seen, let alone taken. Of course, many people don't bother reporting crimes as their loss, injury or victimisation is hardly worth bothering about. One also has to wonder how much the recent ram raid spate was fuelled by the graphic depictions through the media that would excite any young rebel who wanted a publicity fuelled 15 minutes of fame.
KJT was obviously 'on the money', you – meh.
''Anyone who has been around a while would be cautious about using the statement, “The Survey provides us with unique evidence because three quarters of crime incidents are not reported to the Police and therefore not recorded in the administrative data.''
Correct. Read my comment.
KJT was obviously 'on the money', you – meh.
I was taking you seriously until you wrote that comment. Now I know you wouldn't have a clue if you think KJT was on the money with a troll statement.
Another example of you misunderstanding the data and what they tell you/us. You tend to take the binary position again: if there’s something not quite perfect or absolute with the data and/or the methodology, if there’s any hole or weakness to put the finger on then discard it completely and turn on the radio for talk-back infotainment.
Data-sets are rarely comprehensive (complete) and perfect, not even the Census reaches that unattainable threshold and loft goal. Much social research and data relies of snapshots and well-designed well-conducted surveys and sometimes polls.
Talk-back relies on a handful, at best, hand-picked guests (often with an axe to grind) with generally very little allocated time by a
spring-loadedprimed host/interviewer or panel with an a priori outcome in mind, which is usually to boost the ratings and satisfy some other declared or undeclared agenda.Of course, the NZCVS has to be done on and with a random sample! Otherwise it would skew the data and results! You should accept the data as a good reflection what’s been happening in NZ over that period, which is a decline in burglaries.
Making improvements to the design arguably increases the confidence in the results and in the strength and reliability of the conclusions. None will be absolute or perfect! But they’re heaps better that anecdata, and the rants & reckons of shock-jocks on talk-back. Yet, you prefer the latter because they’re easier on the ear & brain, they make you laugh, and they align with your prejudices and confirm your biases.
You simply want to pick & choose which data you like to believe.
The NZCVS gives a very good idea and estimate of the level of unreported crime, which is part of its design! It means we have a more complete and likely better picture of what’s happening in combination with all the reported data. NB the latter are not a survey or snapshot irrespective of how much they under-report. For example, and as an analogy, the Covid-19 daily new cases are thought to be under-reported, the number of hospitalisations is another and perhaps better indicator even though not all positive patients went to hospital because of Covid, and the number of Covid-related deaths is also less than perfect because it can be very difficult and sometimes even impossible to establish the exact cause(s) of death; dying with Covid is not the same as dying from Covid. Should we collect these data and pay any attention to them and let them help guide us in making (policy) decisions or should we do what you do and trash them in the bin and take our cues from talk-back ‘experts’?
I know what I prefer.
And
https://www.justice.govt.nz/assets/Documents/Publications/Cycle-3-Core-Report-20220224-v1.9.pdf
Lastly, thank you drawing attention to these surveys even without making the case for why should pay attention to them 🙂
''Talk-back relies on a handful, at best, hand-picked guests (often with an axe to grind) with generally very little allocated time by a
spring-loadedprimed host/interviewer or panel with an a priori outcome in mind, which is usually to boost the ratings and satisfy some other declared or undeclared agenda.''Not true from my experience. And it isn't the invited guests that make talkback so potent, its's the random callers, many of them who know something behind the stories currently in the media, or about topics that hive off from the main topic.
Here's an example that's yet to be proven. This goes back about a year ago. Keep it in the back of your mind:
''A lady rang in who CLAIMED to have been a regional manager at the IRD for approximately 15 years. ( I forget the TB topic). She said the IRD is incapable of running major tax audits properly, She said the department was in disarray with many senior investigators gone and their computer system in a mess.''
Here is something I found. Small cheese, or proof of deeper problems?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/128562101/inland-revenue-loses-evidence-in-fraudfromprison-case-leading-to-suppressions
But: from 2017. In support of IRD.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/partner/06-12-2017/tax-cheats-and-how-to-catch-them
''Of course, the NZCVS has to be done on and with a random sample! Otherwise it would skew the data and results! ''
How?
''Should we collect these data and pay any attention to them and let them help guide us in making (policy) decisions or should we do what you do and trash them in the bin and take our cues from talk-back ‘experts’?''
You misunderstand again. There are no talkback experts. Mikey doesn't do talkback. It's the callers who fill in the blanks for me.
We have criminals, ex criminals, crime victims ( reported) Crime victims ( unreported) police officers – serving and RET.
I believe they give me a better global picture of the state of things then reports and stats. However, talk back is never going to dictate government policy. While you and the rest are having fun about my rants regarding TB radio, all I'm doing is giving you a heads up on the medium that is taking the Labour Party apart piece by piece. And worse, towards election time the major leaders get to host their own hour spot on talkback. Will Labour let Jacinda face middle NZ?
''The NZCVS enhances our understanding of that picture by covering both reported and unreported offences. The survey also provides rich information about victims often not available in administrative data sources, such as their ethnicity and whether they have a disability.''
That sounds like talkback radio to me.
You said this:
I quoted this back to you:
Now, can you work out what would happen to the overall picture of crime in NZ if they were to do it your way?
Talk-back is self-selecting, just as an online poll is. It taps into its audience and people like you call in to have their rants heard and their frustrations aired on-air. A scientifically conducted study survey picks a random sample, just as for a political poll, to get the most accurate picture of the whole of the nation. That’s why NZCVS is heaps better than talk-back.
Mod note
I know your application to be police commissioner is in the mail and its been good to see the amount of thought and preparation you have been doing in support of your application. Its been a real study in the right attitude to have applying for an unfamiliar role.
We only hope your job application gets appropriate treatment.
I have never, ever seen a domestic in a supermarket, ever. I've lived in some of the poorest suburbs of Huntly, Hamilton, Whangarei & have been in South Dunedin for the last 20 years.
There was panic in the ODT about gunshots in Concord a few days back, turned out to be a car backfiring.
In one of those "rough" South Auckland shopping malls on Tuesday.
Two very relaxed looking cops, walking around talking to shoppers, in polo shirts and utility belts. A whole bunch of very "unthreatened" looking, mostly brown people. Haven't got the message they should be "terrified of the massive crime wave" obviously!
Not a domestic, gun or even a taser, in sight.
These sort of crimes (the shootings and the ramraids) were very common in Australia, not long ago. Now both Labour and National are talking about going to Australia and asking what they did to keep them under control. The answer will be "deport as many of them as you can to New Zealand".
I wouldn't be surprised if there is a significant correlation between number of 501s and increase in crime numbers.
Of course, NZ deports criminals to island countries which pushes up their crime rates too.
Tough on crime, eye-for-an-eye policies sell well, but have little effect on actual crime and push up the spend on prisons. Spending more on police helps as the criminals don't like getting arrested. The amount of time spent in prison is less of a deterrent than going there in the first place.
Spending more on health and family support will not bring about immediate change, but could make a much bigger difference in the long term. Of course it might be another political party that gets to claim the credit.
True, sad to say. But that is what we need to aim for: the long term.
If Bomber is correct in his view as to the reasons behind this upsurge in gun violence between gangs, then that points to a level of criminality and corruption that indicates a much larger breakdown in policing than anyone previously thought.
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2022/06/08/gang-wars-why-heavy-handed-australian-tactics-wont-work-plus-latest-nz-police-failure/