Newshub: poll shows Labour/Green could govern alone

Written By: - Date published: 7:10 am, October 14th, 2019 - 73 comments
Categories: greens, labour, polls - Tags: , ,

Not that it’s apparent from Shub’s spinny headline and Tova O’Brien’s ‘Labour are loosers’ reckons, (Jacinda Ardern, Labour take massive tumble in new Newshub-Reid Research poll), so I fixed if for ya Newshub.

It’s just one poll*, a year out from an election, but if we’re going to have a little flurry of fervour over it, let’s at least enjoy the moment.

Here are the actual results,

*do we not have poll of polls anymore, or analysis of trends?

Back in Shubland: “Labour can’t do it alone”. No shit. Twenty-five years of MMP and this is the quality of analysis we have from one of our main media networks?

https://twitter.com/HilariousKiwi/status/1183271734134198273

I’m not a poll commentator but off the top of my head, here’s some things Newshub could have talked about: margin of error, individual poll vs trends, what the actual trend is, how polls influence voting, NZ First always do better at the election, Labour and especially Ardern would have had a lift in polling after their handling of the Christchurch massacre and a consequent, normal drop over time.

Shub’s chart for the poll on how well the Prime Minister is performing doesn’t even have an x axis so we don’t know if this is relative to the last election or the last five minutes. They did handily link to an article from June titled Jacinda Ardern ‘absolutely’ running for another term as Prime Minister, so perhaps they know something the rest of us don’t and NZ is about to change its electoral system and allow us to vote for a premier.

Meanwhile, from the ‘John who?’ popular PM files,

 

Not only do we have the delight of Ardern being good at her job, widely admired for it, and the potential of a Labour/Green government even with Labour taking a dip in a poll, there were some bloody fantastic left wing and progressive results in the local body elections announced on the weekend. Here’s hoping the other media can give us some useful analysis this week.

73 comments on “Newshub: poll shows Labour/Green could govern alone ”

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  1. Sanctuary 1
    14 October 2019 at 7:34 am

    Hmmmm, Newshub led a massive character assassination on the PM just as they are conducting an expensive poll. Manufacturing the news much?

    I am so over our MSM. Their self-serving and carping narrative only comes in two flavours – a manufactured conflict or a gotcha fall-from-grace.

  2. mickysavage 2
    14 October 2019 at 8:25 am

    Agreed the reporting has been appalling.

    The last poll looked like an outlier in terms of support for Labour. I wrote at the time:

    "One has National 44 and Labour 42. Reid Research has Labour 51% and national 37%.

    Polling is broken. But Simon will be even more worried …"

    https://thestandard.org.nz/two-polls-out-tonight/

    • Enough is Enough 2.1
      14 October 2019 at 10:20 am

      CB out tonight according the J Collins so will be interesting to see firstly if the last poll was an outlier, and secondly whether the trend is Labour losing support to National.

      • observer 2.1.1
        14 October 2019 at 10:45 am

        Yes, TVNZ/Colmar Brunton poll 6pm tonight.

        Which just shows the absurdity of the polling narrative. Last time the two polls came out on the same day … so the easy take was "Contrast! Up, down, who to believe?".

        But this time the CB poll is published a day later. So it becomes the latest poll. It is the new up/down … for no reason whatsoever, except fortuitous timing.

        • Anne 2.1.1.1
          14 October 2019 at 10:53 am

          I expect Colmar Brunton will be roughly the same as the lastest Reid Research. Apart from the fact CB have a reputation for being biased towards National (something to do with their methodology), but Labour clearly did take a big hit over the sexual harassment claims.

          • observer 2.1.1.1.1
            14 October 2019 at 11:02 am

            The latest CB poll was more recent than RR. So … again, we have the up/down narrative, lacking context.

            Up/down from 2 months ago is obviously very different from 6 months ago. We simply have no idea what events people are reacting to.

            The CB numbers might be similar to the Tv3/RR numbers, but the change will be different because it's not from the artificial (or outdated) high of 50 for Labour. Therefore … different narrative.

            It really is a joke.

            • Dukeofurl 2.1.1.1.1.1
              14 October 2019 at 2:38 pm

              The Australian election showed their 'polls' to be a fiction, and they were doing them every week and fairly regularly over the year before the election.

              The polls were so predictable with the results from different pollsters 'converging' that some were saying – 'this aint right, stats doesnt work like that'

    • Enough is Enough 2.2
      14 October 2019 at 12:47 pm

      The reporting from Tova is always appalling Mickey

      Her headline for the last poll in June was:

      "Poll: National nosedives into dreaded 30s, could trigger leadership coup"

      She trys to make a story where one does not exist

  3. Dukeofurl 3
    14 October 2019 at 8:28 am

    No wonder Bridges has been busy with the daytime talk back circuit last 10 days

    • tc 3.1
      14 October 2019 at 10:41 am

      That and his FB rants you can see where they're going with the GE around the corner.

      Like 2013 and 17 with SFA policy and a hell of a lot of social media/msm mischief to swing the sheeple. Negative by default with more dog whistling than a Sheepdog trial.

      Note that Trump appears to have had the Zuck tweak his rules so BS and lying is fair game, almost encouraged now in Stalkbook. Something other domains will take advantage of.

      • greywarshark 3.1.1
        14 October 2019 at 11:56 am

        Do they still have sheepdog trials? I am sighing with nostalgia. That was something really good; worth having a tv to watch.

        • tc 3.1.1.1
          14 October 2019 at 3:22 pm

          yes just not making TV out of it anymore who needs that when you can:

          a) chuck people on an island with provocative challenges and film that

          b) get couples competing at rennovating / property porn in general like find me a house

          c) film people losing weight/dignity/their temper/being people with some thematic music and a tension filled voiceover.

          Sheep have been replaced with sheeple.

          • greywarshark 3.1.1.1.1
            14 October 2019 at 3:50 pm

            If only they could be rounded up to watch a nice exciting NZ movie about people living happily on an island in the Pacific, having interesting lives, cracking jokes, helping each other out, laying concrete for mates in the weekend and having a quiet little party at night singing Ten Guitars etc.

            And there are plenty of NZ films which we could watch till they ran out and then see some good ones from overseas.

            And no bloody advertising. I will never go into Harvey Norman after having watched the awful attack ads when I had TV before. Hard to get away from as they would be repeated.

            The island reality films were a practice at being self-centred a…holes ready to turn on someone for any reason, a bit like the countries instructed to freeze out Jews in the 1930-40's. It is a lesson on how it can be done with some people's full co-operation, though not all!

  4. mango 4
    14 October 2019 at 8:48 am

    <sigh>

    I am totally over idiot political journalists who can't understand statistics. They much prefer over analysis of polling noise to anything meaningful. I never believed for a second that Labour was on 50% in the last poll and I doubt if anyone else did either. The two main parties have been roughly neck and neck since the last election but obviously screaming headlines are more important than the truth.

    • Sacha 4.1
      14 October 2019 at 9:18 am

      'The two main parties' are also not the relevant focus under MMP. Dunces overseeing the newsrooms.

  5. Formerly Ross 5
    14 October 2019 at 8:50 am

    Loosers?At least they’re not losers. 🙂

  6. mauī 6
    14 October 2019 at 8:56 am

    So dishonest from shub, no wonder people are shubbing the mainstream shrubbery in droves.

  7. Psycho Milt 7
    14 October 2019 at 8:57 am

    I guess if you've spent shitloads of cash on a political poll, your bosses aren't going to be happy if your report on it amounts to "Uh, so, our latest poll shows the government's still popular and Labour/Green could still govern alone. Now, in other news…" To avoid that, creativity is applied.

  8. CLEANGREEN 8
    14 October 2019 at 9:11 am

    Labours real problems are their failure to get their own "free to air" (TV7) style "Public affairs" media platform TV channel operating as they promised.

    Without their own social/environmental/climate change public affairs views clearly stated on a commercial free unbiased platform they can hardly expect the public to truly believe in their Governence can they?

    Clare Curren destroyed labours credibility here and Labour now need to fix this 'lack of a strong balanced media' from the current National Party corporate controlled media that we have now.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/357780/government-s-38m-public-broadcasting-boost-still-on-the-table

    • tc 8.1
      14 October 2019 at 10:50 am

      Curren's a luddite with limited gravitas being passed off as some visionary with predicatable results so far.

      The fix is easy IMO, clean out TVNZ and turn TV1 back into NZBC styled public interest leaving TV2/Duke etc free to be commercial and fund TV1.

      Enshrining independance is piss easy, take a look at the legislation across the ditch ABC/SBS operate under. It's an epic fail that shows how out of her depth she is, copy/paste OZ and start from there knowing it's flaws.

      You’d be surprised how much actual funds would be needed once you strip away the boyz club members on over 100K plus and eliminated TVNZ’s largesse remuneration culture.

      TIVO anybody ?

  9. observer 9
    14 October 2019 at 10:06 am

    Another problem with the telly polls is the complete disconnect between the news they push and the polling numbers that put those reports into perspective.

    This would have been an honest statement in last night's TV3/Newshub programme:

    "Over the past few months we have brought you many stories about wannabe parties and politicians. We have highlighted the Tamakis, the Blue-Greens, Alf Ngaro and conservative/religious parties, and so on.

    We believe in the accuracy of our poll. Therefore we now accept that the voters' support for these chancers is – zero. Zilch. Diddly squat.

    We would like to apologise unreservedly for pretending that these nonentities are relevant.

    The only other conclusion would be that these people really DO have measurable support among NZ voters, and that our poll is wrong. Our poll or our news? We've got it wrong somewhere. Our bad!"

    • Sanctuary 9.1
      14 October 2019 at 10:16 am

      Actually the media obsession with Brian & Hannah Tamiki and Destiny Church is a text book example of how irresponsible and mercenary our MSM is these days. They love to promote a false conflict narrative in order to forment anger and generate clickbait for advertising income – greed being the only "ethical" standard the corporate media shows any interest in adhering to these days.

      The fact are the census recorded less than 1800 people as members of Destiny Church. They are utterly marginal.

  10. Dukeofurl 10
    14 October 2019 at 10:21 am

    There is comment going around that the survey period of this TV3/RR poll was some time back , and its not even this month? What have others found ?

    • observer 10.1
      14 October 2019 at 10:30 am

      It's on the Newshub link in the OP. October poll.

      • Dukeofurl 10.1.1
        14 October 2019 at 12:07 pm

        I meant the actual days the survey covers, normally these things are shown , but not this time ?

        Wording like 'October Poll' is meaningless if they wont give the spread of days they called people.

  11. Dukeofurl 11
    14 October 2019 at 10:29 am

    Wanna influence the Reid Research Poll, join their panel ,win prizes

    The RR political polls have about 200 or so survey participants from online panels

    http://www.reidresearch.co.nz/OUR+PANEL.html

  12. Wensleydale 12
    14 October 2019 at 10:33 am

    If you see the name Tova O'Brien attached to something, you can generally safely conclude "clickbait generator, hyperbole-infested manufactured controversy". At least she's consistent. Paddy Gower used to be guilty of exactly the same sort of shit, but he seems to have mellowed over the years.

    • Dukeofurl 12.1
      14 October 2019 at 3:03 pm

      Wasnt there a 'Paddy Gower outrage generator' which would create a menagerie of power words , silly comments and twisted facts.

      Tova O'brien seems to have the same app on her laptop.

      The worrying thing is the minor TV presenters are following the same process for innocuous 'live news crosses' – huge emphasis every 5th word, most of the facts are exaggerated and mixed with hand chops and forearm lifts.

      Expect the news editing suites – like reality shows – to focus on raised eyebrows and lip pouting as the next big thing

  13. observer 13
    14 October 2019 at 10:37 am

    In the OP Weka links to the "performing well vs poorly" result.

    This is a common measure in other countries' poll reporting. Trump's "approval v disapproval" numbers are a constant feature in the USA media.

    For some reason in NZ we prefer (heh) the preferred PM polling. Which is less useful – much as I enjoy Simon Bridges' embarrassing numbers. There is no explanation for the big blank below 100% of respondents (do National voters simply cough when asked the question on the phone?).

    Anyway, Ardern's approval rating is 62%. But you had to really search for it – not broadcast on the news.

  14. Anne 14
    14 October 2019 at 10:39 am

    Thirty plus years ago, these 20-30 something 'hick' political reporters would not have been allowed near an MSM prime-spot political analysis. They would have been deemed too inexperienced and lacking in fundamental knowledge and judgment. Instead they would have been relegated to assistant positions where they could watch and learn from the professionals in the field.

    Nowadays they think they know it all by the age of 25 and the lack of nous and political maturity shows through in their every utterances. Some are worse than others, and every now and then a young person comes along who does show maturity and good judgement but they are few and far between. In fact I can't even think of one right now.

    What to do about it? I don't know but somebody here might.

    • weka 14.1
      14 October 2019 at 11:25 am

      I don't know how old O'Brien is but I assume she has backing/endorsement of her more senior boss.

      • Anne 14.1.1
        14 October 2019 at 12:08 pm

        The 'professionals' I was referring to were in similar positions to O'Brien and co., but they were older and wiser heads. Ian Johnston from 30 plus years ago comes to mind but there are of course more recent examples. Most were in their late 30s and 40s before they were let loose at prime time viewing and of course they were very experienced interviewers as well.

      • Sacha 14.1.2
        14 October 2019 at 12:09 pm

        Yes, it's the faceless editors and producers who have abandoned their profession's ethics and standards. Presenters and reporters do whatever they can get away with.

      • Dukeofurl 14.1.3
        14 October 2019 at 2:50 pm

        Tova is likely a capable person, but just as there is identity politics, – where you match the demographic to a politician, she is part of the Indentity Reporting.

        The Young Female demographic is where TV3 News wants to be strong in, so they employ someone who ticks that box.

        Same reason Campbell was kicked out, hes NOT the right demographic, with the other disadvantage that the big advertisers/US hedge fund Oaktree wouldnt like his politics.

        Hosking plays the demographics totally with his ripped jeans -faux hipster look to cover his age of 54. Not for him the Campbell fuddy duddy style, he apes the politics of the advertisers to make sure.

  15. Formerly Ross 15
    14 October 2019 at 10:57 am

    Simon must be very worried because despite several bad news stories for the government, he is not getting any cut through. Surely he’ll be gone by the new year?

  16. greywarshark 16
    14 October 2019 at 11:06 am

    Radionz this morning was shovelling the news into a pile big enough to exclaim about.

    politics : National up, Labour down in latest political poll…
    "RNZ's political editor Jane Patterson speaks to us in our Wellington studio."

    From Morning Report, 7:23 am today https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2018717565/national-up-labour-down-in-latest-political-poll Listen duration 3′ :40
    Labour is down and National up in the latest Newshub-Reid research poll. National's support has received a 6.5 percent boost to 43.9 percent, surpassing Labour. The Labour Party's public support is now at 41.6 percent – a 9.2 percent drop since the last poll in June….

  17. observer 17
    14 October 2019 at 11:14 am

    Just for fun, I'll tell you tonight's headline on TV1:

    "National can govern ALONE!"

    National 46 (up 1 from last poll)

    Labour 42 (down 1)

    Greens 4 (down 2)

    NZF 4 (up 1)

    Odds and sods up 1.

    So very small changes, statistically insignificant, deliver Shock Poll Boost For Bridges. And a new narrative for headless chickens.

    (and of course a slight shift back delivers "Ardern Landslide!11!!!". Yep).

  18. Jimmy 18
    14 October 2019 at 11:15 am

    There is only one poll that really counts and that will be held in 2020 when we all get to vote.

  19. DigNap15 19
    14 October 2019 at 11:18 am

    Have any of you seen the Newsbull poll this morning?

    Who do you think will be the next PM?

    Simon Bridges 49

    Jacinda Ardern 33

    Judith Collins 19

    Grant Robertson 1

    Note its who do you think! not who do you prefer!

    • observer 19.1
      14 October 2019 at 11:35 am

      Please don't call them "polls". They have nothing to do with Reid Research or any polling organisation. They are routinely spammed, see this ruling by the media council:

      https://www.mediacouncil.org.nz/rulings/jenny-kirk-against-mediaworks-newshub

      If you are online at the time, you can actually watch the bots working. A poll of around 50-50 will move to 95-5 in a matter of seconds. Then the entirely meaningless fake numbers are worked into the public discourse – as you can see.

      It would be funny if it weren't so tragic.

      I have e-mailed TV3 about this before and made a complaint. I recommend others do the same.

      • greywarshark 19.1.1
        14 October 2019 at 11:51 am

        Good on you observer for registering your disapproval with the BS being put about at TV3. Wasn't that the tv that got handouts to keep it in business at one time. We are getting the sort of outcome that could be expected from losers getting loose money from loose political sources.

      • Dukeofurl 19.1.2
        14 October 2019 at 12:02 pm

        From Observers link
        'Robert Dowd of the MediaWorks Standards Committee confirmed the poll had been artificially manipulated, but believes the manipulation occurred after the broadcast. Until the complaint was received, the broadcaster was unaware of the manipulation. Generally, a daily poll will not be looked at again by Newshub, unless in relation to a further broadcast.

        Tim Watkin dissented from the 8 others who upheld the complaint in a classic case of sowhatism

      • weka 19.1.3
        14 October 2019 at 12:53 pm

        that was a good read. Well done Jenny Kirk! Fuck TV3 are a mess.

        I'd love to see that happening in real time observer, if you feel like dropping me a link next time you see it.

  20. Grumpy 20
    14 October 2019 at 11:25 am

    The threat of "Labour and Greens governing alone" could send NZF's 4% rushing back to National. Winnie's followers see him as the only one keeping the current coalition honest and if it seems he is no longer relevant, they will leave.

    • greywarshark 20.1
      14 October 2019 at 11:53 am

      No way – crossing fingers behind back.

    • xanthe 20.2
      14 October 2019 at 12:24 pm

      But why would Labour go with the greens as long as they can continue to build with NZF?

      You are right tho that if Labour allows that possibility to gain traction they will lose a lot of votes.

      I think we will see a stand of "lets see what hand the voters deal us first" from Labour and quite properly so.

      • weka 20.2.1
        14 October 2019 at 2:04 pm

        "But why would Labour go with the greens as long as they can continue to build with NZF?"

        Left wing Labour voters might want to ponder that one too.

        • Dukeofurl 20.2.1.1
          14 October 2019 at 2:31 pm

          Even if they could 'go alone with the Greens' Labour will still govern with NZ First if they could agree to do so.

          Its how MMP has worked for both Labour with Clark and National with Key- have multiple confidence or coalition partners.

          • weka 20.2.1.1.1
            14 October 2019 at 3:37 pm

            up to the point that left wing Labour voters start voting Green because they want an actual left wing govt, not a centrist one.

            • Dukeofurl 20.2.1.1.1.1
              14 October 2019 at 3:55 pm

              Good luck with that one.

              You do realise that the Greens voting 'base 'isnt left wing activists, but rather is well off middle class women. Far more Green votes in Epsom than in say Mangere.

              Labour with Ardern just has to promote similar 'green values' , which they are doing, to capture that group. MMP with 2 votes allows a split vote – Green candidate , Labour party vote. That is what happens

              • weka …
                14 October 2019 at 4:09 pm

                There are very few Green candidates campaigning seriously to win an electorate.

                What happened to the 4.5% that voted Green in 2014 but not in 2017? I'm reasonably sure that most of them voted Labour. We have a swing vote within the left, I don't think this is a particularly controversial view.

                I didn't say anything about activists not sure what you're on about there.

                • Dukeofurl …
                  14 October 2019 at 4:48 pm

                  yes the activists was my own view. I would have thought 'left wing' labour voters- especially younger- went over to the greens a while back.

                  Parties are complex things, if you get 1/2 of what they do that I agree with thats pretty OK.
                  Recently some long time Green members got upset over the Green Mps comments on trans gender movement. And I mean really upset. I thought The Greens Mps had a standard ‘left wing’ approach to that issue supporting a minority group who have faced enormous prejudice.

        • xanthe 20.2.1.2
          14 October 2019 at 3:24 pm

          most of us are way beyond left or right. We just want honest and capable. NO political party in NZ is that now, but Jacinda and Winston are . The greens need to focus on becoming honest and capable.

  21. Michelle Gray 21
    14 October 2019 at 11:52 am

    who did they poll the farmers and the business sector ?

    • Dukeofurl 21.1
      14 October 2019 at 12:05 pm

      It just brings Newshubs previously very high for labour poll back in line with Colmar Brunton/TV1

  22. ScottGN 22
    14 October 2019 at 1:15 pm

    Frankly I’m surprised Labour didn’t take an even bigger hit in the RR poll back down to their election night support. The fact they didn’t is purely down to Ardern and her talents as a once-in-a-generation retail politician. She’s the only electoral asset Labour has and the way the party HQ, having completely stuffed up the sexual assault allegations, scuttled off like the losers they are and let her take the heavy fire day after day was unforgivable. The party doesn’t really deserve her and if they go on to lose next year it will be their own fault.

  23. swordfish 23
    14 October 2019 at 4:53 pm

    Newshub's headline:

    Jacinda Ardern, Labour take massive tumble in new Newshub-Reid Research poll

    seems entirely justified to me … given Ardern's plunged 11 points in the Preferred PM & Labour's down 9 in the intended Party Vote (with a fairly hefty National rise). How else would you expect a media organisation (particularly one that's commissioned the poll) to present such a result ?

    It's incumbent on media organisations who commission opinion polls to construct engaging news angles around them and it doesn’t hurt them to try & get a few extra bangs for their buck while they're at it. Given that, on the face of it, this was a fairly rare / momentous shift … there's nothing intrinsically surprising or indefensible in their coverage.

    There are some obvious qualms, though.

    First, there's a reasonable argument to be made (though it's by no means certain) that the previous (June 2019) Newshub RR was something of a rogue poll & this is simply a self-correction, bringing things back into line with CB. In which case this would be a "massive tumble" from a purely fictional / unrealistic high … and that would, in turn, undermine Tova's analysis that: "This poll is a seismic political shift" (I'll discuss the implications of this for the likely results of tonight's upcoming Colmar Brunton result in a later comment).

    Second, Tova O'Brien overeggs the apparent decline in Ardern's popularity:

    The age of Jacindamania is over. Brand Ardern has taken its biggest knock yet – and when Labour's magic weapon loses its power, the party does too. The latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll shows just how wounded Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Labour have been after the string of crises that have beset them

    In terms of Preferred PM, Ardern's precisely where she was in the early stages of this Govt (when "Jacindamania" was considered to be at fever-pitch, if not quite reaching the heights following her reaction to the Christchurch Massacre):

    Newshub RR Ardern (Preferred PM)

    Jan 2018 38

    May 2018 40

    Feb 2019 42

    June 2019 49

    Oct 2019 38

    And she's currently 32 points ahead of Bridges, whereas in Jan 2018 she was just 12 above English.

    Ardern's not quite as popular in the Leadership Performance ratings as she once was … but still a significant Net positive bordering on + 40 (Performing Well 62% / Poorly 23%)

    (Incidentally,Young David Farrar over at Kiwiblog has helpfully pointed out that Key was on 51% at the same point in the TV3 Poll Preferred PM … true … but Key was a bit of a freak in that regard … Helen Clark, for instance, was on 39% at the same stage into her first term (TV3 Poll) … so pretty similar to Ardern … although admittedly Ardern's tumble since June – assuming it's authentic rather than simply the artifact of a Rogue Poll – inevitably casts things in a more negative light)

    Third, precisely the same can be said about Party Support.

    The latest Newshub RR puts things pretty much back to where they were in the earlier phase of this Govt / Results remarkably similar to RR polls during the first half of 2018

    Newshub RR

    …………………. Lab …. Govt ……. Nat …. Oppo …… Lead

    Jan 2018 …….. 42 ……. 52 ………. 45 …….. 45 …… Govt + 7

    May 2018 …… 43 ……. 51 ………. 45 …….. 45 …… Govt + 6*

    Feb 2019 ……. 48 ……..56……….. 42 ……. 42 …… Govt +14

    June 2019 …… 51 ……. 60 ………. 37 …….. 38 ……. Govt +22

    Oct 2019 ……. 42 ……. 52 ………. 44 ……… 45 ……. Govt + 7

    Here are the Newshub Headlines for their Jan 2018 Poll (which, as you can see, recorded near-identical results to yesterday's iteration, but evoked a dramatically different response at Newshub):

    Headline: Newshub poll: Labour soars to popularity not seen for a decade

    The poll's party vote has Labour on 42 percent, up 5.4 percentage points since the election.

    Opposition leader Bill English has dismissed the rise as "just a honeymoon period", but Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says that's not the case.

    And the Newshub Headlines for their May 2018 Poll (again, remarkably similar results to their latest – but greatly contrasting headline, tone & emphasis) :

    Headline: Simon Bridges failing to connect with voters – Newshub poll

    A Newshub-Reid Research poll has brought some seriously bad news for Simon Bridges.

    Mr Bridges, who has now been in the role three months to the day, has earned just 9 percent of the vote in the preferred Prime Minister stakes – the lowest result for a National leader in over a decade.

    • The Chairman 23.1
      14 October 2019 at 5:20 pm

      A very good analysis, swordfish. yes

    • swordfish 23.2
      14 October 2019 at 5:42 pm

      .
      Since the 2017 GE … there have been four occasions when the Colmar Brunton & Reid Research Polls have coincided – either directly overlapping or taken within a week or so of each other.

      Over the last 24 hours, a handful of Nat-friendly Twitter-types have suggested the CBs are always more (some say much more) friendly to the Nats than RR & so tonight's Colmar Brunton will be particularly brutal for the Govt.

      But these commentators appear to have been entirely influenced by the Massive contrast in June 2019. That chasm, however, was atypical.

      CB vs RR

      Lab Govt Nat Oppo Lead

      .
      Late Jan / Early Feb 2018

      RR 42 52 45 45 Govt + 7

      CB 48 56 43 44 Govt + 12

      May 2018

      RR 43 51 45 45 Govt + 5

      CB 43 52 45 46 Govt + 7

      Feb 2019

      RR 48 56 42 42 Govt + 14

      CB 45 54 42 43 Govt + 11

      June 2019

      RR 51 60 37 38 Govt + 22

      CB 42 53 44 45 Govt + 8

      (Note: Rounding may mean Lead is 1 point + / – than gap in table)

      Up until June 2019, very similar results, with Colmar Brunton at least as likely to be Govt-friendly, if not more so.

      So I guess the key question is whether the sudden eruption of this chasm between the two TV Polls in June 2019 has become the new norm. If it is … then (given the Coalition's downturn in yesterday's RR) tonight's Colmar Brunton will indeed be quite brutal for the Govt Bloc (but then, of course, that, in turn, would simply raise the question: as to which of the contrasting Polls is right ?).

      If, on the other hand, the June Newshub RR was a rogue … & has simply corrected itself … then you may find little difference in tonight's CB, with the Govt still relatively comfortably ahead.

      Just bear in mind that Labour's Late August 2019 UMR Internal had the Coalition down to its lowest rating since the 2017 GE (though still fairly comfortably ahead) … which prompted me a week or so back to tweet that the Left should brace itself for a possible downturn in the next CB. So yesterday's RR mirrors the direction of travel of that Internal, albeit to an extreme extent.

      But, as you can see, none of this is a very solid basis for certainty. Neither a Plunge for the Govt nor a No Change result would greatly surprise me. Nor, for that matter, would something in between – a mild Govt-to-Oppo swing.

      (sorry, short of time … so this brief bit of analysis is all a bit rushed, disorganised & impromptu)

  24. WILD KATIPO 24
    14 October 2019 at 5:06 pm

    Labour and the Greens could govern alone?

    Nice.

    However, I like NZ First.

    That said, its a great thing happening. Esp in light of the last govt ( the ChiNational party) – easily the most corrupt govt in modern times with its tax haven leader,… john key.

    However,… I and many others would like to see the end of the 'placating the masses' neo liberalism of Labour and the 'drive a spike into the unions' ChiNational neo liberal party. We do get sick of the 'bad cop / good cop' routine going on between Labour and the ChiNational party.

    We know what they are both all about with their wealthy elites…. 35 years of neo liberal lies taught the populace to wise up… one would hope…

    You know the drill, – Labour doing nothing really effectual in its term , setting things up for the ChiNationals as the populace gets sick of the inaction of Labour , thus votes for the ChiNationals seeking change that will never happen.

    The two party system that the UK and the USA have.

    Not good enough.

    We want REAL CHANGE.

    Not mealy mouthed platitudes.

    Try a return to Keynesian economics.

    Maybe then we will see REAL change for the better.

    Huh?

    How about a bit of that , then?

  25. Brian Tregaskin 25
    14 October 2019 at 6:00 pm

    I would expect the TVNZ/Colmar Brunton poll in 2 mins to be a shock poll for Labour –slightly worse than the TV3 poll.

    Somewhere between the two would an. accurate picture.

  26. Dukeofurl 26
    14 October 2019 at 6:08 pm

    Observer picked the correct One News headline if the Tories polls are high

    "National and ACT have numbers to form a government in latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll"

    When the other result for Labour and Greens , wasnt used -" Labour and Greens can govern "

    • Anne 26.1
      14 October 2019 at 6:40 pm

      Jacinda Ardern did not think the internal issues with the Labour Party staffer investigation impacted the poll results.

      I'm sorry Jacinda but you are deluding yourself if you don't think the sexual harassment scandal had any impact.

      Much better to have come clean this evening and admit it was a factor.

      If the inquiry more or less exonerates the Labour Party hierarchy as not being directly responsible for what happened – and it might – then stick the knife into Bridges and Bennett and those in the media who were lying to the public… and make sure it gets wide coverage.

    • Rapunzel 26.2
      14 October 2019 at 6:43 pm

      Why did the other poll not factor the a massive 18% who are there to be convinced, IMO it will not take a lot to convince them that they do not want a National govt so time to tidy up some of the stray ends that media have pumped up so doggedly.

      • WILD KATIPO 26.2.1
        14 October 2019 at 7:12 pm

        Don't worry, the ChiNational party wont get in.

        Yeah there will be a a great big song and dance from the far right elites,… but it will be all smoke and noise,… even their select media embeds cant save them this election. The whole Dirty Politicking , corrupt and skullduggerous reputation of their and their hack leader ' Tax Haven Key' precedes them too much. And for every 1 finger pointing at the coalition there's 5 pointing back at them as far as scandal goes.

        We of the general public all know that. We don't need to be convinced. Its well known about the corrupt and working class/ unemployed / sickness beneficiary bashing ChiNational party.

        And have they still got that alleged Chinese intelligence officer as an MP in their ranks?- you know,- the one who trained the PRC military on surveillance of western country's… the one even the Australians rejected…?

        Come to sunny New Zealand and get a soft spot in the ChiNational party for a cool hundred grand or so 'donation '…

        Watcha say?

        • Rapunzel 26.2.1.1
          14 October 2019 at 7:27 pm

          I reckon, 18% undecideds – I looked at how Reid polls last night they apparently contact a number (random/specific) several times before after not getting a "voter" moving on to another number to meet the quota. Thinking about it other than candidate vote my party vote could go to one of two – am I technically therefore "undecided". Other than having to listen to the voices of gloom and doom I see potential in these results, that is the National hardcore 47% of 82% and maybe a few the rest are p for grabs. In the cold hard light of day NZers have plenty of reasons not to want a National govt back.

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